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Apuntes de Estadística para

Ingenieros
Gilberto Pradilla

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Eyner Peña

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CONCEPT OS GENERALES SOBRE ESTADIST ICA

aldo olivar
Apuntes de Estadística
para Ingenieros
Versión 1.3, junio de 2012

Prof. Dr. Antonio José Sáez Castillo

Dpto de Estadística e Investigación Operativa
Universidad de Jaén
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 ❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡
❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❉❡♣❛rt❛♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■♥✈❡st✐❣❛❝✐ó♥ ❖♣❡r❛t✐✈❛

❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❱❡rs✐ó♥ ✶✳✸

❏✉♥✐♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✷
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❮♥❞✐❝❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧

✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✶✶

✶✳✶✳ ➽◗✉é s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛❄ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶

✶✳✷✳ ▲❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❈✐❡♥❝✐❛ ② ❧❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷
✶✳✷✳✶✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝❛♣❛s ❞❡ ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷
✶✳✷✳✷✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ❞❡ ❜❛❥♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷
✶✳✷✳✸✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
✶✳✷✳✹✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
✶✳✷✳✺✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦ ❛ ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ❞♦s✐s ② ❡♥ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s t✐❡♠♣♦s ❞❡
❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹
✶✳✷✳✻✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺
✶✳✷✳✼✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦❜❡rt✉r❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛♥t❡♥❛ ❞❡ t❡❧❡❢♦♥í❛ ♠ó✈✐❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺
✶✳✷✳✽✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺
✶✳✸✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❜ás✐❝❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺

■ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛ ✶✼

✷✳ ❊❧ tr❛t❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛ ✶✾

✷✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾
✷✳✷✳ ❚✐♣♦s ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾
✷✳✸✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ❣rá✜❝♦s ② ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵
✷✳✹✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ❣rá✜❝♦s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶
✷✳✺✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺
✷✳✺✳✶✳ ▼❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ t❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺
✷✳✺✳✶✳✶✳ ▼❡❞✐❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✺
✷✳✺✳✶✳✷✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✻
✷✳✺✳✶✳✸✳ ▼♦❞❛ ♦ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ♠♦❞❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✻
✷✳✺✳✷✳ ❈✉❛♥t✐❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✼
✷✳✺✳✸✳ ▼❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ♦ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✽

✸
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✷✳✺✳✸✳✶✳ ❱❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✽

✷✳✺✳✸✳✷✳ ❉❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♦ ❡st❛♥❞❛r ♠✉❡str❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✾
✷✳✺✳✸✳✸✳ ❈♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✵
✷✳✺✳✹✳ ▼❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛✳ ❈♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✶
✷✳✺✳✺✳ P❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ② ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✷
✷✳✻✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡t❡❝t❛r ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s ♦ ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡ r❛♥❣♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✸
✷✳✻✳✶✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ r❡❣❧❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✸
✷✳✻✳✷✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✸
✷✳✼✳ ❙♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝❛♣❛s ❞❡ ❞✐ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✹

■■ ❈á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ✸✼

✸✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✸✾

✸✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✸✾
✸✳✷✳ ❊①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ② ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✵
✸✳✸✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✵
✸✳✸✳✶✳ ➪❧❣❡❜r❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✵
✸✳✸✳✷✳ ❊s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✶
✸✳✸✳✸✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✸
✸✳✹✳ ■♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t✐st❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✺
✸✳✺✳ ■♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ s✉❜❥❡t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✺
✸✳✻✳ ❊s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❝♦♥ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❡q✉✐♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s✳ ❋ór♠✉❧❛ ❞❡ ▲❛♣❧❛❝❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✻
✸✳✼✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✳ ■♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✹✻
✸✳✽✳ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t♦t❛❧ ② ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✶
✸✳✾✳ ▼ás s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✺
✸✳✾✳✶✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ❥✉❡③ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✻
✸✳✾✳✷✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢❛❧❧♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✺✼

✹✳ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳ ▼♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✻✶

✹✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✶
✹✳✷✳ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷
✹✳✷✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷
✹✳✷✳✷✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✷
✹✳✷✳✸✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✸
✹✳✷✳✹✳ ▼❡❞✐❛ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✸
✹✳✸✳ ▼♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✹
✹✳✸✳✶✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✺

✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

✹✳✸✳✷✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✻✽

✹✳✸✳✸✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✵
✹✳✸✳✹✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✶
✹✳✹✳ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✹✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✹✳✷✳ ❍✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✸
✹✳✹✳✸✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✺
✹✳✹✳✹✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✻
✹✳✹✳✺✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✼
✹✳✹✳✻✳ ▼❡❞✐❛ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✼✽
✹✳✺✳ ▼♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✷
✹✳✺✳✶✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ✭❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✷
✹✳✺✳✷✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✷
✹✳✺✳✸✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ●❛♠♠❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✹
✹✳✺✳✹✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✽✻
✹✳✻✳ ❈✉❛♥t✐❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳ ❆♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✷
✹✳✻✳✶✳ ▲❛ ❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ❞❡ ❜❛❥♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ♠❛r❝❛ ❆◆❚❊ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✸
✹✳✻✳✷✳ ▲❛s ✈✐s✐t❛s ❛❧ ♣❡❞✐❛tr❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛❞r❡s ♣r❡♦❝✉♣❛❞♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✹

✺✳ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ✾✼

✺✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✼
✺✳✷✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛✱ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ② ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✾
✺✳✷✳✶✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✾✾
✺✳✷✳✷✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✶
✺✳✷✳✸✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✸
✺✳✸✳ ■♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✵✼
✺✳✹✳ ▼❡❞✐❛s✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ② ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✶
✺✳✹✳✶✳ ❈♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ② ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✶
✺✳✹✳✷✳ ❱❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✲❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✽
✺✳✺✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✶✾

■■■ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ✶✷✺

✻✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ✶✷✼

✻✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✼

✻✳✷✳ ▼✉❡str❡♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✽
✻✳✸✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✽
✻✳✹✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✷✾

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✼✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✶✸✸

✼✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✸

✼✳✷✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✹
✼✳✷✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ② ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡s❡❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♣✉♥t✉❛❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✹
✼✳✷✳✷✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✺
✼✳✷✳✸✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❱❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✺
✼✳✷✳✹✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✼
✼✳✷✳✺✳ ❖❜t❡♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♣✉♥t✉❛❧❡s✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✽
✼✳✷✳✺✳✶✳ ▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✽
✼✳✷✳✺✳✷✳ ▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✸✾
✼✳✷✳✻✳ ❚❛❜❧❛ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠ás ❝♦♠✉♥❡s ✶✹✷
✼✳✸✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣♦r ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✷
✼✳✸✳✶✳ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✹
✼✳✸✳✷✳ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✻
✼✳✸✳✸✳ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✻
✼✳✸✳✹✳ ❖tr♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✼
✼✳✹✳ ❘❡s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✽

✽✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♣❛r❛♠étr✐❝❛s ✶✹✾

✽✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✹✾

✽✳✷✳ ❊rr♦r❡s ❡♥ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✶
✽✳✸✳ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✸
✽✳✸✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✸
✽✳✸✳✷✳ ❈á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✺
✽✳✹✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✻
✽✳✹✳✶✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s ✭n ≥ 30✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✻
✽✳✹✳✷✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ✭n < 30✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✽
✽✳✺✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✾
✽✳✺✳✶✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s ✭n1 , n2 ≥ 30✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✺✾
✽✳✺✳✷✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ✭n1 < 30 o n2 < 30✮ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ✐❣✉❛❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✵
✽✳✺✳✸✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ② ♠✐s♠♦ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✶
✽✳✺✳✹✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ② ❞✐st✐♥t♦ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✶
✽✳✻✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣❛r❡❛❞❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✷
✽✳✻✳✶✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s ✭n ≥ 30✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✷
✽✳✻✳✷✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ✭n < 30✮ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✷
✽✳✼✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✹
✽✳✽✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✻

✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

✽✳✾✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✼

✽✳✶✵✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✼
✽✳✶✶✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ♠ás ❞❡ ❞♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ ❆◆❖❱❆ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✻✽
✽✳✶✷✳ ❊❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s ♠ú❧t✐♣❧❡s✳ ▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❇♦♥❢❡rr♦♥✐ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✶
✽✳✶✸✳ ❘❡s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ❞❡❧ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✷

✾✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥♦ ♣❛r❛♠étr✐❝❛s ✶✼✸

✾✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✸

✾✳✷✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✸
✾✳✷✳✶✳ ❚❡st χ2 ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✹
✾✳✷✳✷✳ ❚❡st ❞❡ ❑♦❧♠♦❣♦r♦✈✲❙♠✐r♥♦✛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✽
✾✳✸✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ χ2 ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✼✾
✾✳✹✳ ❘❡s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✸

✶✵✳❘❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✐♠♣❧❡ ✶✽✺

✶✵✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✺

✶✵✳✷✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣♦r ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✽✽
✶✵✳✸✳ ❙✉♣✉❡st♦s ❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s ♣❛r❛ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾✷
✶✵✳✹✳ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾✸
✶✵✳✹✳✶✳ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾✸
✶✵✳✹✳✷✳ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾✼
✶✵✳✺✳ ❊❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✶✾✾
✶✵✳✻✳ ❋✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✳ ❊❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✷
✶✵✳✼✳ Pr❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ ② ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✸
✶✵✳✽✳ ❉✐❛❣♥♦s✐s ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✻
✶✵✳✽✳✶✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✻
✶✵✳✽✳✷✳ ●rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❥✉st❛❞♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✵✻

■❱ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ✷✵✾

✶✶✳Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ✷✶✶

✶✶✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✶

✶✶✳✶✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✷
✶✶✳✶✳✷✳ ❚✐♣♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✷
✶✶✳✷✳ ❉❡s❝r✐♣❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✺
✶✶✳✷✳✶✳ ❉❡s❝r✐♣❝✐ó♥ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❧t✐❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛❧❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✺
✶✶✳✷✳✷✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ② ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✺
✶✶✳✸✳ ❚✐♣♦s ♠ás ❝♦♠✉♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✼

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✶✶✳✸✳✶✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✼

✶✶✳✸✳✷✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❝♦♥ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✽

✶✶✳✸✳✸✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✽

✶✶✳✸✳✹✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✶✾

✶✶✳✸✳✺✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❡r❣ó❞✐❝♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✷✶

✶✶✳✹✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✷✷

✶✶✳✹✳✶✳ ❘✉✐❞♦s ❜❧❛♥❝♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✷✷

✶✶✳✹✳✷✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦s ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✷✸

✶✶✳✹✳✸✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✳ ✷✷✹

✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

Pró❧♦❣♦
❊❧ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡❞✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❞♦❝✉♠❡♥t♦ ❡s ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r ❛ ❧♦s ❛❧✉♠♥♦s ❞❡ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊s❝✉❡❧❛
P♦❧✐té❝♥✐❝❛ ❙✉♣❡r✐♦r ❞❡ ▲✐♥❛r❡s ❡❧ ❞❡s❛rr♦❧❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦♥t❡♥✐❞♦s t❡ór✐❝♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛s✐❣♥❛t✉r❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳ ❉❡s❞❡ ✉♥
♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ♠❡♥♦s ❧♦❝❛❧✱ ❡s♣❡r♦ q✉❡ s❡❛ út✐❧✱ ❡♥ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✱ ❛ t♦❞♦ ❛q✉❡❧ q✉❡ ♥❡❝❡s✐t❡ ❝♦♥♦❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦s
❜ás✐❝♦s ❞❡ ❧❛s té❝♥✐❝❛s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛s ♠ás ✉s✉❛❧❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛♠❜✐❡♥t❡ ❝✐❡♥tí✜❝♦✲t❡❝♥♦❧ó❣✐❝♦✳
❆ t♦❞♦s ❡❧❧♦s✱ ❛❧✉♠♥♦s ② ❧❡❝t♦r❡s ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ q✉✐❡r♦ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r❧❡s ❡❧ ♣r✐✈✐❧❡❣✐♦ ❞❡ ❛♣r❡♥❞❡r ❞❡ q✉✐❡♥❡s ②♦ ❤❡
❛♣r❡♥❞✐❞♦✱ s✉❣✐r✐é♥❞♦❧❡s ❝✉❛tr♦ ♠❛♥✉❛❧❡s q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ♠í ❤❛♥ s✐❞♦ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡s✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛✱ ❡♥ ♣r✐♠❡r
❧✉❣❛r✱ ❞❡❧ ♠❛❣♥í✜❝♦ ❧✐❜r♦ ❞❡ ❙❤❡❧❞♦♥ ▼✳ ❘♦ss✱ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❛ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳ ❊♥ é❧ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛rs❡ ❧❛
♠❛②♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❛q✉í✱ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛ ② ❝❧❛r❛✱ ♣❡r♦ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛r✐♦s
❤✐stór✐❝♦s✱ r❡s❡ñ❛s ❜✐❜❧✐♦❣rá✜❝❛s s♦❜r❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝♦s ② ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s ② ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ♠✉② ❛♣r♦♣✐❛❞♦s✳
❊♥ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❧✉❣❛r✱ r❡❝♦♠✐❡♥❞♦ ❧♦s tr❛❜❛❥♦s ❞❡ ❲✐❧❧✐❛♠ ◆❛✈✐❞✐✱ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s ② ❝✐❡♥tí✜❝♦s✱ ②
❏❛② ❉❡✈♦r❡✱ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ② ❝✐❡♥❝✐❛s✱ s♦❜r❡ t♦❞♦ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❛❝t✉❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠✉❝❤♦s
❞❡ s✉s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ② ♣♦r ❝ó♠♦ ❡♥❢❛t✐③❛♥ ❡❧ ❝❛rá❝t❡r ❛♣❧✐❝❛❞♦✱ ♣rá❝t✐❝♦✱ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛
❈✐❡♥❝✐❛ ② ❧❛ ❚❡❝♥♦❧♦❣í❛✳ ❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❞❡❜♦ ♠❡♥❝✐♦♥❛r t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡❧ ❧✐❜r♦ ❞❡ ▼❡♥❞❡♥❤❛❧ ✫ ❙✐♥❝✐❝❤✱ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
② ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ② ❈✐❡♥❝✐❛s✱ q✉❡ ✐♥❝❧✉②❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❧♦s ❞♦s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s✱ ✉♥♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ② ❡❥❡r❝✐❝✐♦s
♣r♦♣✉❡st♦s ♠❛❣♥í✜❝♦s✳
❊♥ ❡❧ ❛❝t✉❛❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡❧ ❊s♣❛❝✐♦ ❊✉r♦♣❡♦ ❞❡ ❊❞✉❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❙✉♣❡r✐♦r✱ ❧❛ ❛s✐❣♥❛t✉r❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ t✐❡♥❡✱ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠❛②♦r
♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❣r❛❞♦s ❡♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛✱ ✉♥ ❝❛rá❝t❡r ❜ás✐❝♦ ② ✉♥❛ ❞♦t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✻ ❝ré❞✐t♦s ❊❈❚❙✳ ❆sí ♦❝✉rr❡✱ ♣♦r
❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡♥ ❧❛s r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧❡s ♦ t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ s❡ ✐♠♣❛rt❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥✳ ❖tr❛s
r❛♠❛s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ❞❡ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ❝✐✈✐❧✴♠✐♥❡r❛✱ ❤❛♥ ♦♣t❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✐♥❝❧✉✐r❧❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❛s✐❣♥❛t✉r❛ ♦❜❧✐❣❛t♦r✐❛✱ ❝♦♠♣❛rt✐❞❛
❝♦♥ ✉♥❛ ❛s✐❣♥❛t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❛♠♣❧✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛s ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ s❡ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡♥ ✸ ❝ré❞✐t♦s ❊❈❚❙ ❞❡ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳ ❈♦♥
t♦❞♦✱ ❝r❡♦ q✉❡ ❡st♦s ❛♣✉♥t❡s ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❛❞❛♣t❛rs❡ ❛ ❡s♦s ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ❝♦♥t❡①t♦s✱ ❛❝❧❛r❛♥❞♦ q✉é t❡♠❛s ♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r
♠ás ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ t✐t✉❧❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❊♥ ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦✿

✶✳ P❛r❛ ❧❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧❡s s❡rí❛♥ ♦♣♦rt✉♥♦s ❧♦s ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦s ✶✱ ✷✱ ✸✱ ✹✱ ✻✱
✼✱ ✽✱ ✾ ② ✶✵✳ ❊❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✾✱ s♦❜r❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ♥♦ ♣❛r❛♠étr✐❝♦s ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞❛rs❡ ❛ ♠♦❞♦ ❞❡ s❡♠✐♥❛r✐♦✱ s✐ ❡❧
❞❡s❛rr♦❧❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞♦❝❡♥❝✐❛ ❛sí ❧♦ s✉❣✐❡r❡✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✶✵✱ s♦❜r❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ♠❡
♣❛r❡❝❡ ✐♠♣r❡s❝✐♥❞✐❜❧❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❢✉t✉r♦ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧✳

✷✳ ❊♥ ❧♦s ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ r❛♠❛ ❞❡ t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ❝r❡♦ q✉❡ s♦♥ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦s ❧♦s ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦s ✶✱ ✷✱ ✸✱ ✹✱ ✺✱ ✻✱
✼✱ ✽ ② ✶✶✳ ❘❡s✉❧t❛ ❛sí ❡❧ t❡♠❛r✐♦ q✉✐③á ♠ás ❡①✐❣❡♥t❡✱ ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♥❡❝❡s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐r ✉♥ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦
s♦❜r❡ ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ♣r❡✈✐♦ ❛ ♦tr♦ s♦❜r❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦s✳ ◗✉❡❞❛ ❛ ✐♥✐❝✐❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡❧ ❞♦❝❡♥t❡ ❧❛
♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ r❡❝♦rt❛r ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❛s♣❡❝t♦s ❡♥ ❧♦s t❡♠❛s tr❛t❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❛r❛s ❛ ❤❛❝❡r ♠ás ❧✐❣❡r❛ ❧❛ ❝❛r❣❛
❞♦❝❡♥t❡✳

✸✳ ❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡♥ ❧♦s ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ r❛♠❛ ❝✐✈✐❧ ② ♠✐♥❡r❛✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧❛ ❞♦t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝ré❞✐t♦s ❡s ♠❡♥♦r✱ ❝r❡♦ q✉❡

✾
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

s♦♥ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦s ❧♦s ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦s ✶✱ ✷✱ ✸✱ ✹✱ ✻✱ ✼✱ ✽ ② ✶✵✱ s✐ ❜✐❡♥ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛♥❞♦ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❞❡ s✉s ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦s✱ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥

ést❛ q✉❡ ❞❡❥♦✱ ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦✱ ❛ ❥✉✐❝✐♦ ❞❡❧ ❞♦❝❡♥t❡✳ ❚❛♠❜✐é♥ s✉❣✐❡r♦ q✉❡ s❡ tr❛❜❛ ❥❡♥ ❧♦s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s s♦❜r❡ ❡st♦s

❝❛♣ít✉❧♦s ❞✐r❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛s ♣rá❝t✐❝❛s ❝♦♥ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦r✳

❙ó❧♦ ♠❡ q✉❡❞❛ ♣❡❞✐r ❞✐s❝✉❧♣❛s ❞❡ ❛♥t❡♠❛♥♦ ♣♦r ❧❛s ❡rr❛t❛s q✉❡✱ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡✱ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ❡st❛s ♣á❣✐♥❛s✳ ❖s

r✉❡❣♦ q✉❡ ♠❡ ❧❛s ❤❛❣á✐s ❧❧❡❣❛r ♣❛r❛ ❝♦rr❡❣✐r❧❛s ❡♥ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r❡s ❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s✳

▲✐♥❛r❡s✱ ❥✉♥✐♦ ❞❡ ✷✵✶✷✳

✶✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✶

■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

▲❧❡❣❛rá ✉♥ ❞í❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❡❧ r❛③♦♥❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ s❡rá t❛♥ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝✐✉❞❛❞❛♥♦ ❝♦♠♦
❛❤♦r❛ ❧♦ ❡s ❧❛ ❤❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❡❡r ② ❡s❝r✐❜✐r

❍✳●✳ ❲❡❧❧s ✭✶✽✻✻✲✶✾✹✻✮

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❊❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✐♥❝❧✉②❡ ✉♥❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ tér♠✐♥♦ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ② ♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧♦s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦s ♠ás ❜ás✐❝♦s
r❡❧❛t✐✈♦s ❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ② ♠✉❡str❛s✳
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛✱ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡✱ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ♠✉❡str❛
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✳

✶✳✶✳ ➽◗✉é s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛❄

❙✐ ❜✉s❝❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❉✐❝❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❘❡❛❧ ❆❝❛❞❡♠✐❛ ❊s♣❛ñ♦❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ▲❡♥❣✉❛ ✭❉❘❆❊✮ ❡❧ ✈♦❝❛❜❧♦ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛
❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ tr❡s ❛❝❡♣❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤❛ ♣❛❧❛❜r❛✶ ✿

✶✳ ❊st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡❝✉rs♦s ♥❛t✉r❛❧❡s ❡ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧❡s✱ ❞❡❧ trá✜❝♦ ♦
❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♦tr❛ ♠❛♥✐❢❡st❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s s♦❝✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❤✉♠❛♥❛s✳

✷✳ ❈♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❡st♦s ❞❛t♦s✳

✸✳ ❘❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ q✉❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ ❣r❛♥❞❡s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s ♣❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s
❜❛s❛❞❛s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✳

Pr♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ♠ás ❝♦♠ú♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❞♦s ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣❛❧❛❜r❛ s❡❛ ❡❧ s❡❣✉♥❞♦✱ ② ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ s♦❧❡♠♦s
✈❡r ❡♥ ❧♦s ♠❡❞✐♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r r❡❝♦♣✐❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝✐❢r❛s r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❛ ❛❧❣ú♥ ❛s✉♥t♦ ❡s ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦
✭❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠✉② r❡❞✉❝❝✐♦♥✐st❛✮ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♦ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛s✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r r❡❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❝✐❡♥❝✐❛ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ ✈❡r ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠ás ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ② ❧❛ t❡r❝❡r❛
❛❝❡♣❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❉❘❆❊✳ ❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❞♦s s❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❡st✉❞✐❛r
❝♦♠♦ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❉❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ ♣❛r❛ r❡s✉♠✐r✱ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ② ❡①♣❧♦r❛r ❞❛t♦s✱ ② ❡❧
t❡r❝❡r♦ ❝♦♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛r❡♠♦s ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛
✶ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❜✉s❝♦♥✳r❛❡✳❡s✴❞r❛❡■✴❙r✈❧t●❯■❇✉s❯s✉❛❧❄▲❊▼❆❂❡st❛❞✪❈✸✪❆❉st✐❝❛
✶✶
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❡s ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ r❡❞✉❝✐❞♦ ❞❡ ❝❛s♦s ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❢❡r✐r ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❞❡ ést♦s ❛❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ t♦❞♦s

❡❧❧♦s✳

✶✳✷✳ ▲❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❈✐❡♥❝✐❛ ② ❧❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛

❊❧ ♣❛♣❡❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❈✐❡♥❝✐❛ ② ❧❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ❤♦② ❡♥ ❞í❛ ❡s ❝r✉❝✐❛❧✱ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♣♦rq✉❡

❛❧ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❞❛t♦s r❡❝♦♣✐❧❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r t✐♣♦✱ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠❛②♦rí❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s

q✉❡ ❞✐❝❤♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡stá♥ s✉❥❡t♦s ❛ ❛❧❣ú♥ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡✳ ❊❧ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r ♦ ❡❧ ♣r♦❢❡s✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡❜❡ t♦♠❛r

❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥❡s r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ s✉ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ❞❡ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❜❛sá♥❞♦s❡ ❡♥ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ♣❛r❛ ❧♦ ❝✉❛❧ ❞❡❜❡ ❞♦t❛rs❡ ❞❡ ❤❡rr❛♠✐❡♥t❛s

❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛s✳

❆ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ✉♥❛ s❡r✐❡ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ♣rá❝t✐❝♦s ❡♥ ❧♦s q✉❡ s❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♥ s✐t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❡st❡

t✐♣♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ♣♦♥❡r❧❡ ✉♥ ♥♦♠❜r❡ ❡s♣❡❝í✜❝♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ✐r❡♠♦s ♠❡♥❝✐♦♥á♥❞♦❧♦s ❛ ❧♦ ❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡❧ ❝✉rs♦✱ ❝♦♥❢♦r♠❡

s❡❛♠♦s ❝❛♣❛❝❡s ❞❡ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡r ❛ ❧❛s ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❞❡❥❛♥ ❛❜✐❡rt❛s✳

✶✳✷✳✶✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝❛♣❛s ❞❡ ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦

❊❧ ❛rtí❝✉❧♦ ✏❱✐r❣✐♥ ❱❡rs✉s ❘❡❝②❝❧❡❞ ❲❛❢❡rs ❢♦r ❋✉r♥❛❝❡ ◗✉❛❧✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥✿ ■s t❤❡ ❊①♣❡♥s❡ ❏✉st✐✜❡❞❄✑ ✭❱✳ ❈③✐tr♦♠ ②

❏✳ ❘❡❡❝❡✱ ❡♥ ❙t❛t✐st✐❝❛❧ ❈❛s❡ ❙t✉❞✐❡s ❢♦r ■♥❞✉str✐❛❧ Pr♦❝❡ss ■♠♣r♦✈❡♠❡♥t✱ ❆❙❆ ② ❙■❆▼✱ ✶✾✾✼✿✽✼✲✶✵✹✮ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡

✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝r❡❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝❛♣❛ ❞❡❧❣❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❞✐ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦ s♦❜r❡ ♣❧❛❝❛s ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦ q✉❡ s❡ ✉s❛♥ ❡♥

❧❛ ❢❛❜r✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ s❡♠✐❝♦♥❞✉❝t♦r❡s✳ ❊♥ é❧ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❞❛t♦s r❡❧❛t✐✈♦s ❛ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❡s♦r✱ ❡♥ ❛♥❣str♦♠s
◦
✭A✮✱ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛♣❛ ❞❡ ó①✐❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛s r❡❛❧✐③❛❞❛s ❡♥ ✷✹ ♣❧❛❝❛s✿ ❡♥ ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦✱ s❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r♦♥ ✾ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛

✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✷✹ ♣❧❛❝❛s✳ ▲❛s ♣❧❛❝❛s s❡ ❢❛❜r✐❝❛r♦♥ ❡♥ ❞♦s s❡r✐❡s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s✱ ✶✷ ♣❧❛❝❛s ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ s❡r✐❡✳ ❊st❛s ♣❧❛❝❛s

❡r❛♥ ❞❡ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s t✐♣♦s ② s❡ ♣r♦❝❡s❛r♦♥ ❡♥ ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ♣♦s✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❤♦r♥♦✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❡♥tr❡ ♦tr♦s ❛s♣❡❝t♦s✱ ❡❧

♣r♦♣ós✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝♦♣✐❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡r❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r s✐ ❡❧ ❡s♣❡s♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛♣❛ ❞❡ ó①✐❞♦ ❡st❛❜❛ ❛❢❡❝t❛❞♦ ♣♦r

❡❧ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣❧❛❝❛ ② ♣♦r ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❤♦r♥♦✳ P♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ s❡ ❞✐s❡ñó ❞❡ t❛❧ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡

♥♦ s❡ ❡s♣❡r❛❜❛ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s✐st❡♠át✐❝❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ❞♦s s❡r✐❡s✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s s❡ ♠✉❡str❛♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❚❛❜❧❛ ✶✳✶✳

▲♦ ♣r✐♠❡r♦ q✉❡ s❛❧t❛ ❛ ❧❛ ✈✐st❛ ❛❧ ♠✐r❛r ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡s q✉❡ ❡s ♠✉② ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛❞♦ ❤❛❝❡rs❡ ✉♥❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s
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r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳ P❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡st❛r ❡♥ t♦r♥♦ ❛ ✾✵ A✱ ♣❡r♦ ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ❡s❡ ✈❛❧♦r✳ ❆❧❣✉♥❛s ❞❡

❡s❛s ✈❛r✐❛❝✐♦♥❡s s♦♥ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❧❧❛♠❛t✐✈❛s ✭✼✼✳✺✱ ✶✵✻✳✼✱ ✳✳✳✮✿ ➽q✉é ♣❛só ❡♥ ❡s❛s ♣❧❛❝❛s❄ ❊♥ s✉♠❛✱ ❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡

q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛❝❡ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐❛ ✉♥❛ ♠❛♥❡r❛ s✐st❡♠át✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ tr❛t❛♥❞♦ ❞❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r❧♦s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♣r❡❝✐s❛

② ♦❜❥❡t✐✈❛✱ r❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥❞♦ ❛ ❧❛s ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛s q✉❡ s✉❜②❛❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❞✐s❡ñ♦ ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✿ ➽s♦♥ ❧❛s ❞♦s s❡r✐❡s ❞❡

❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❤♦♠♦❣é♥❡❛s❄ ➽❛❢❡❝t❛ ❡❧ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣❧❛❝❛❄ ➽❛❢❡❝t❛ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❤♦r♥♦❄ ✳✳✳

✶✳✷✳✷✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ❞❡ ❜❛ ❥♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦

❊♥ ❡❧ ❡♥✈♦❧t♦r✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ❆◆❚❊ ❞❡ ✶✹❲ s❡ ❛✜r♠❛ ❧✐t❡r❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ✏▲á♠♣❛r❛ ❛❤♦rr❛❞♦r❛ ❞❡ ❡♥❡r❣í❛✳

❉✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ✽ ❛ñ♦s✑ ✳

❉❡❜♦ r❡❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❞❡ q✉❡ t❡♥❣♦ ♠✐s ❞✉❞❛s✳ P❛r❛ ❡♠♣❡③❛r✱ ➽❡s q✉❡ ❛ ❧♦s ✽ ❛ñ♦s✱ ❞❡ r❡♣❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ❧á♠♣❛r❛ s❡

r♦♠♣❡❄ P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❝r❡♦ q✉❡ t♦❞♦s ♥♦s♦tr♦s ❤❡♠♦s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❞♦ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ést❛s ❧á♠♣❛r❛s q✉❡

s✉♣✉❡st❛♠❡♥t❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ♠❛②♦r q✉❡ ❧❛s tr❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s ❧á♠♣❛r❛s ✐♥❝❛♥❞❡s❝❡♥t❡s ✭s❡❣ú♥ ❡❧ ❡♥✈♦❧t♦r✐♦✱

✽ ✈❡❝❡s ♠❛②♦r✮✱ s✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ s❡ r♦♠♣❡♥ ❝♦♥ ❢❛❝✐❧✐❞❛❞✳ ▲✉❡❣♦✱ ➽q✉é q✉✐❡r❡ ❞❡❝✐r ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ❡♥✈♦❧t♦r✐♦ ❛❧

❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ s✉ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❞❡ ✽ ❛ñ♦s❄

✶✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

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❙❡r✐❡ P❧❛❝❛ A
✶ ✶ ✾✵✳✵✵ ✾✷✳✷✵ ✾✹✳✾✵ ✾✷✳✼✵ ✾✶✳✻ ✽✽✳✷✵ ✾✷✳✵✵ ✾✽✳✷✵ ✾✻✳✵✵
✶ ✷ ✾✶✳✽✵ ✾✹✳✺✵ ✾✸✳✾✵ ✼✼✳✸✵ ✾✷✳✵ ✽✾✳✾✵ ✽✼✳✾✵ ✾✷✳✽✵ ✾✸✳✸✵
✶ ✸ ✾✵✳✸✵ ✾✶✳✶✵ ✾✸✳✸✵ ✾✸✳✺✵ ✽✼✳✷ ✽✽✳✶✵ ✾✵✳✶✵ ✾✶✳✾✵ ✾✹✳✺✵
✶ ✹ ✾✷✳✻✵ ✾✵✳✸✵ ✾✷✳✽✵ ✾✶✳✻✵ ✾✷✳✼ ✾✶✳✼✵ ✽✾✳✸✵ ✾✺✳✺✵ ✾✸✳✻✵
✶ ✺ ✾✶✳✶✵ ✽✾✳✽✵ ✾✶✳✺✵ ✾✶✳✺✵ ✾✵✳✻ ✾✸✳✶✵ ✽✽✳✾✵ ✾✷✳✺✵ ✾✷✳✹✵
✶ ✻ ✼✻✳✶✵ ✾✵✳✷✵ ✾✻✳✽✵ ✽✹✳✻✵ ✾✸✳✸ ✾✺✳✼✵ ✾✵✳✾✵ ✶✵✵✳✸✵ ✾✺✳✷✵
✶ ✼ ✾✷✳✹✵ ✾✶✳✼✵ ✾✶✳✻✵ ✾✶✳✶✵ ✽✽✳✵ ✾✷✳✹✵ ✽✽✳✼✵ ✾✷✳✾✵ ✾✷✳✻✵
✶ ✽ ✾✶✳✸✵ ✾✵✳✶✵ ✾✺✳✹✵ ✽✾✳✻✵ ✾✵✳✼ ✾✺✳✽✵ ✾✶✳✼✵ ✾✼✳✾✵ ✾✺✳✼✵
✶ ✾ ✾✻✳✼✵ ✾✸✳✼✵ ✾✸✳✾✵ ✽✼✳✾✵ ✾✵✳✹ ✾✷✳✵✵ ✾✵✳✺✵ ✾✺✳✷✵ ✾✹✳✸✵
✶ ✶✵ ✾✷✳✵✵ ✾✹✳✻✵ ✾✸✳✼✵ ✾✹✳✵✵ ✽✾✳✸ ✾✵✳✶✵ ✾✶✳✸✵ ✾✷✳✼✵ ✾✹✳✺✵
✶ ✶✶ ✾✹✳✶✵ ✾✶✳✺✵ ✾✺✳✸✵ ✾✷✳✽✵ ✾✸✳✹ ✾✷✳✷✵ ✽✾✳✹✵ ✾✹✳✺✵ ✾✺✳✹✵
✶ ✶✷ ✾✶✳✼✵ ✾✼✳✹✵ ✾✺✳✶✵ ✾✻✳✼✵ ✼✼✳✺ ✾✶✳✹✵ ✾✵✳✺✵ ✾✺✳✷✵ ✾✸✳✶✵
✷ ✶ ✾✸✳✵✵ ✽✾✳✾✵ ✾✸✳✻✵ ✽✾✳✵✵ ✾✸✳✻ ✾✵✳✾✵ ✽✾✳✽✵ ✾✷✳✹✵ ✾✸✳✵✵
✷ ✷ ✾✶✳✹✵ ✾✵✳✻✵ ✾✷✳✷✵ ✾✶✳✾✵ ✾✷✳✹ ✽✼✳✻✵ ✽✽✳✾✵ ✾✵✳✾✵ ✾✷✳✽✵
✷ ✸ ✾✶✳✾✵ ✾✶✳✽✵ ✾✷✳✽✵ ✾✻✳✹✵ ✾✸✳✽ ✽✻✳✺✵ ✾✷✳✼✵ ✾✵✳✾✵ ✾✷✳✽✵
✷ ✹ ✾✵✳✻✵ ✾✶✳✸✵ ✾✹✳✾✵ ✽✽✳✸✵ ✽✼✳✾ ✾✷✳✷✵ ✾✵✳✼✵ ✾✶✳✸✵ ✾✸✳✻✵
✷ ✺ ✾✸✳✶✵ ✾✶✳✽✵ ✾✹✳✻✵ ✽✽✳✾✵ ✾✵✳✵ ✾✼✳✾✵ ✾✷✳✶✵ ✾✶✳✻✵ ✾✽✳✹✵
✷ ✻ ✾✵✳✽✵ ✾✶✳✺✵ ✾✶✳✺✵ ✾✶✳✺✵ ✾✹✳✵ ✾✶✳✵✵ ✾✷✳✶✵ ✾✶✳✽✵ ✾✹✳✵✵
✷ ✼ ✽✽✳✵✵ ✾✶✳✽✵ ✾✵✳✺✵ ✾✵✳✹✵ ✾✵✳✸ ✾✶✳✺✵ ✽✾✳✹✵ ✾✸✳✷✵ ✾✸✳✾✵
✷ ✽ ✽✽✳✸✵ ✾✻✳✵✵ ✾✷✳✽✵ ✾✸✳✼✵ ✽✾✳✻ ✽✾✳✻✵ ✾✵✳✷✵ ✾✺✳✸✵ ✾✸✳✵✵
✷ ✾ ✾✹✳✷✵ ✾✷✳✷✵ ✾✺✳✽✵ ✾✷✳✺✵ ✾✶✳✵ ✾✶✳✹✵ ✾✷✳✽✵ ✾✸✳✻✵ ✾✶✳✵✵
✷ ✶✵ ✶✵✶✳✺✵ ✶✵✸✳✶✵ ✶✵✸✳✷✵ ✶✵✸✳✺✵ ✄✾✻✳✶ ✶✵✷✳✺✵ ✶✵✷✳✵✵ ✶✵✻✳✼✵ ✶✵✺✳✹✵
✷ ✶✶ ✾✷✳✽✵ ✾✵✳✽✵ ✾✷✳✷✵ ✾✶✳✼✵ ✽✾✳✵ ✽✽✳✺✵ ✽✼✳✺✵ ✾✸✳✽✵ ✾✶✳✹✵
✷ ✶✷ ✾✷✳✶✵ ✾✸✳✹✵ ✾✹✳✵✵ ✾✹✳✼✵ ✾✵✳✽ ✾✷✳✶✵ ✾✶✳✷✵ ✾✷✳✸✵ ✾✶✳✶✵

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✳✶✿ ❉❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❡s♦r ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝❛♣❛s ❞❡ ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ♥♦s♦tr♦s ❞❡❜❡r❡♠♦s ❛♣r❡♥❞❡r ❛ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❡st❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛✱ ❛s✉♠✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❛

❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ♥♦ ❡s ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ✜❥♦ ② ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ ❡stá s✉❥❡t♦ ❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ ❤❛r❡♠♦s s❡rá ❞♦t❛r♥♦s

❞❡ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣❡r♠✐t❛ ✈❛❧♦r❛r s✐ ❡s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ ♦ ♥♦ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❧á♠♣❛r❛ ❆◆❚❊ s❡ r♦♠♣❛

❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ ❛ñ♦✱ ❞❡s♣✉és ❞❡ tr❡s ❛ñ♦s✱ ❡t❝✳

✶✳✷✳✸✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦

❯♥ ❛rtí❝✉❧♦ ♣✉❜❧✐❝❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t❛❧ ❊♥❣✐♥❡❡r✐♥❣ ❡♥ ✷✵✵✷✱ t✐t✉❧❛❞♦ ✏▲❡❛❝❤❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ ▲❛♥❞ ❉✐s✲

♣♦s❡❞ ❘❡s✐❞❡♥t✐❛❧ ❈♦♥str✉❝t✐♦♥ ❲❛st❡✑✱ ♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❜❛s✉r❡r♦s q✉❡ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥

❞❡s❡❝❤♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥str✉❝❝✐ó♥ ② ❞❡s♣❡r❞✐❝✐♦s ❞❡ ❞❡♠♦❧✐❝✐♦♥❡s✳ ❉❡ ✉♥ s✐t✐♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ s❡ t♦♠❛r♦♥ ✹✷ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡

❧✐①✐❛❞♦✱ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝✉❛❧❡s ✷✻ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦✳ ❙❡ ♣♦♥❡ ❛sí ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ q✉❡ só❧♦ ✉♥❛ ♣❛rt❡

❞❡ ❧♦s ❜❛s✉r❡r♦s ❡stá ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❞❛ ♣♦r ♣❧♦♠♦✳ ▲❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥ ❡s ➽q✉é ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ s✉♣♦♥❡ ❡st❛ ♣❛rt❡ ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❞❛

❞❡ ❧❛ s✉♣❡r✜❝✐❡ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❜❛s✉r❡r♦s❄

❙✐ ✉♥❛ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r❛ ❞❡s❡❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❜❛s✉r❡r♦s q✉❡

❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❝♦♥s❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❡s✿

✶✳ ❊s ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r t♦❞♦s ❧♦s r✐♥❝♦♥❡s ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❜❛s✉r❡r♦s✳

✷✳ ❙✐ s❡ ❜❛s❛ só❧♦ ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❛rtí❝✉❧♦✱ ❡s❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ s❡rá só❧♦ ❡s♦✱ ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❜❛s❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡s❛

♠✉❡str❛✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❞❡ só❧♦ ✹✷ ❞❛t♦s✳ ❉❡❜❡rí❛✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦ ♦❜t❡♥❡r t❛♠❜✐é♥ ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡rr♦r q✉❡ ❡stá

❝♦♠❡t✐❡♥❞♦ ❛❧ ❤❛❝❡r ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❈♦♥ ❛♠❜♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✱ ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ sí ② ✉♥❛ ❝✉❛♥t✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧

❡rr♦r q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛ ❝♦♠❡t❡r ❝♦♥ ❡❧❧❛✱ ✐♥❝❧✉s♦ ♣♦❞rá ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥ r❛♥❣♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ s❡

❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❛❧t♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

✶✳✷✳✹✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦ ❥✐♥❡t❡s

❯♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧ ❡s r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ❞❡ ❜♦❧❛s ② t✐❡♥❡ ❞♦s ♠áq✉✐♥❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s

♣❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✳ ▲❡ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞♦s t❡♥❣❛♥ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦s s✐♠✐❧❛r❡s✱ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛

♠áq✉✐♥❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣r♦❞✉❝❡✱ ♣❡r♦ t✐❡♥❡ s♦s♣❡❝❤❛s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡stá ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❡♥❞♦ ❛❧❣ú♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❢❛❧t❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❝✐ó♥

❡♥tr❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳ P❛r❛ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❡st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥✱ ❡①tr❛❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✶✷✵ ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❢❛❜r✐❝❛r♦♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛

❆✱ ② ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡❧ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦ ❡s ❞❡ ✺✳✵✻✽ ♠♠ ② q✉❡ s✉ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❡stá♥❞❛r ❡s ❞❡ ✵✳✵✶✶ ♠♠✳ ❘❡❛❧✐③❛

❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❇ s♦❜r❡ ✻✺ ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ② ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❡stá♥❞❛r

s♦♥✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✺✳✵✼✷ ♠♠ ② ✵✳✵✵✼ ♠♠✳ ➽P✉❡❞❡ ❡❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞♦s ♣♦r

❧❛s ♠áq✉✐♥❛s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦s ♠❡❞✐♦s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s❄

✶✳✷✳✺✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦ ❛ ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ❞♦s✐s ② ❡♥ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s

t✐❡♠♣♦s ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥

❯♥ ❡q✉✐♣♦ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r❡s q✉❡ tr❛❜❛❥❛♥ ❡♥ s❡❣✉r✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❡❧ tr❛❜❛❥♦ ❡stá tr❛t❛♥❞♦ ❞❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❝ó♠♦ ❧❛

♣✐❡❧ ❛❜s♦r❜❡ ✉♥ ❝✐❡rt♦ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ q✉í♠✐❝♦ ♣❡❧✐❣r♦s♦✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱ ❝♦❧♦❝❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ✈♦❧ú♠❡♥❡s ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦

q✉í♠✐❝♦ s♦❜r❡ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s s❡❣♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ♣✐❡❧ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ ♠✐❞✐❡♥❞♦ ❛❧ ❝❛❜♦ ❞❡ ❡s❡

t✐❡♠♣♦ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ❛❜s♦r❜✐❞♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦✳ ❊❧ ❞✐s❡ñ♦ ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ s❡ ❤❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡

❧❛ ✐♥t❡r❛❝❝✐ó♥ ❡s♣❡r❛❜❧❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ② ❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ♥♦ ✐♥✢✉②❛ s♦❜r❡ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s s❡ ♠♦str❛rá♥

❡♥ ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ t❡♠❛✳

✶✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

▲♦ q✉❡ ❧♦s ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r❡s s❡ ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❛♥ ❡s s✐ ❧❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦ ♣♦r ✉♥ ❧❛❞♦ ② ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥
❛❧ q✉❡ s❡ s♦♠❡t❡ ♣♦r ♦tr♦✱ ✐♥✢✉②❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❛❜s♦r❜❡✳ ❉❡ s❡r ❛sí✱ s❡rí❛ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡ ❡st✐♠❛r
❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣❡rs♦♥❛s q✉❡ s❡ s♦♠❡t❛♥ ❛ ✉♥❛ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞✱ ♣♦r
❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ✽ ❤♦r❛s✳

✶✳✷✳✻✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s

❊♥ ✉♥❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ s❡ s♦s♣❡❝❤❛ q✉❡ ❤❛② ❢r❛♥❥❛s ❤♦r❛r✐❛s ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s s♦♥ ♠ás ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡s✳
P❛r❛ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❡st❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦✱ ❝♦♥t❛❜✐❧✐③❛♥ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s q✉❡ s✉❢r❡♥ ❧♦s tr❛❜❛❥❛❞♦r❡s s❡❣ú♥ ❢r❛♥❥❛s
❤♦r❛r✐❛s✱ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ✉♥ ❛ñ♦✳ ▲♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛✳

❍♦r❛s ❞❡❧ ❞í❛ ◆ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s

✽✲✶✵ ❤✳ ✹✼
✶✵✲✶✷ ❤✳ ✺✷
✶✸✲✶✺ ❤✳ ✺✼
✶✺✲✶✼ ❤✳ ✻✸

❈♦♥ ❡s❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❧♦s r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ s❡❣✉r✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❞❡❜❡♥ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r s✐ ❤❛② ❢r❛♥❥❛s ❤♦r❛r✐❛s ❞♦♥❞❡
❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s s♦♥ ♠ás ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s ♦ s✐✱ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ ést♦s ♦❝✉rr❡♥ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧ ❛③❛r✳

✶✳✷✳✼✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦❜❡rt✉r❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛♥t❡♥❛ ❞❡ t❡❧❡❢♦♥í❛ ♠ó✈✐❧

❘❡❞✉❝✐❡♥❞♦ ♠✉❝❤♦ ❡❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❛♥t❡♥❛ ❞❡ t❡❧❡❢♦♥í❛ ♠ó✈✐❧ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥❛ ❝♦❜❡rt✉r❛ q✉❡
❛❜❛r❝❛ ❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♠ó✈✐❧ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝ír❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ r❛❞✐♦ r✳ ❯♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡ ✉♥ t❡❧é❢♦♥♦
❝♦♥❝r❡t♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡st❛r s✐t✉❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣✉♥t♦ ❛❧ ❛③❛r ❞❡ ❡s❡ ❝ír❝✉❧♦✱ ♣❡r♦ ➽❝ó♠♦ ♣❧❛s♠❛r ❡s♦❄ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱
s✐ ♥♦s ❝❡♥tr❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ❞✐st❛♥❝✐❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❛♥t❡♥❛✱ ➽❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❞✐st❛♥❝✐❛ ❡s ✐❣✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ ❄ ➽❨ q✉é ♣♦❞❡♠♦s
❞❡❝✐r ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝♦♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛s ❡♥ ✉♥ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦ ❞❡❧ ♠ó✈✐❧❄

✶✳✷✳✽✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r s❡ñ❛❧ ❞❡❜❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛rs❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❞❡❜❡ t❡♥❡rs❡ ❡♥
❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s✱ ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛ ❡s ❞❡❜✐❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ✐♥❤❡r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡
❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❨ ❡s q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ♠✉❧t✐t✉❞ ❞❡ r❛③♦♥❡s✱ ♥❛❞✐❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❣❛r❛♥tí❛s q✉❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❡♥✈✐❛❞❛ s❡❛ ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡
✐❣✉❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ r❡❝✐❜✐❞❛✳
❯♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ❞❡❜❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡s♦ ②✱ ❛ ♣❡s❛r ❞❡ t♦❞♦✱ s❡r ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❧❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ♠ás r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s
❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r s❡ñ❛❧ ② ❞❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛r s✉ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐ó♥✳
P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❤♦② ❡♥ ❞í❛ ✉♥❛ s❡ñ❛❧ s✉❢r❡ ♠✉❧t✐t✉❞ ❞❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❈❛❞❛
✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❡s❛s tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡❧ ♣❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ♣♦r ✉♥ s✐st❡♠❛✳ ❊❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ❞❡❜❡
s❡r ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❧❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ♠ás r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❛ ❧♦ ❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡ t♦❞❛s ❡s❛s tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s✳

✶✳✸✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❜ás✐❝❛s

P❛r❛ ✜♥❛❧✐③❛r ❡st❡ ♣r✐♠❡r t❡♠❛ ❞❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✐r ✜❥❛♥❞♦ ❧❛s ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐♦♥❡s ♠ás ❡❧❡♠❡♥t❛❧❡s q✉❡
✉t✐❧✐③❛r❡♠♦s ❛ ❧♦ ❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡❧ ❝✉rs♦ ② q✉❡ ②❛ ❤❛♥ s✐❞♦ ♠♦t✐✈❛❞❛s ❡♥ ❧❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❙❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❛ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ♦ ❝❛s♦s✱ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ♥✉❡str♦ ✐♥t❡rés✳

P♦❞❡♠♦s ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐r ❡♥tr❡ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡s ② ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧❡s✳

❯♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡ s✐ ❝♦♥st❛ ❞❡ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❢ís✐❝♦s r❡❛❧❡s q✉❡ ❢♦r♠❛♥ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ✜♥✐t♦✳
P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ ❡st❛♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❧✉♠♥♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊s❝✉❡❧❛✱ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡
❡st♦s ❛❧✉♠♥♦s ❡s ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡✳

❯♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s r❡❛❧❡s✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ s✉s ❝❛s♦s s❡ ♦❜t✐❡♥❡♥ ♣♦r ❧❛ r❡♣❡t✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥
❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✳
P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ♣❧❛♥t❡á❜❛♠♦s ❧❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s s♦❜r❡ ♣❧❛❝❛s ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦✱ ✈❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❤❛② t❛♥t♦s ❝❛s♦s ❝♦♠♦ ♣r✉❡✲
❜❛s ♣✉❡❞❛♥ ❤❛❝❡rs❡✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ s✉♣♦♥❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ✐♥✜♥✐t♦ ❞❡ ❝❛s♦s✳ ❊♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧❡s ❡s ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡✱
♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❝❛s♦s✱ ② t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❝♦♥❢♦r♠❛r♥♦s ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠✐s♠♦s✳

❯♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♦ ❞❛t♦ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✳

P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✿

❙✐ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❛❧✉♠♥♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊s❝✉❡❧❛✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✜❥❛r♥♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧t✉r❛✳

❙✐ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ❡❧ s✉♣✉❡st♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s s♦❜r❡ ♣❧❛❝❛s ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s♣❡s♦r
❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛♣❛ ❞❡ ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛❞❛✳

❙❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✳

❊❧ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ②❛ s❡❛ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡ ♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧ ❡s q✉❡ ❧♦s
❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❡♥ ❛❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❊st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥✱ ❧❛
❝♦♥str✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛s✱ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❛s✱ ❡s ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛s♣❡❝t♦s ♠ás ❞❡❧✐❝❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳
◆♦s♦tr♦s ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❡♥ ❡st❛ ❛s✐❣♥❛t✉r❛ só❧♦ ✉♥ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛s✱ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞❛s ♠✉❡str❛s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s
s✐♠♣❧❡s✳ ❊♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✱ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❜❡♥ t❡♥❡r ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s
♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ s❛❧✐r ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ②✱ ❛❞❡♠ás✱ ❧♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡❜❡♥ s❡r ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✿ ❡❧ q✉❡
s❛❧❣❛ ✉♥ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ ❛❢❡❝t❛r ❛ q✉❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ♦tr♦ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ s❛❧❣❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳
P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❡st❛r ✐♥t❡r❡s❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡s♣❛ñ♦❧❡s ❝♦♥ ❞❡r❡❝❤♦ ❛ ✈♦t♦ ✭♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥
t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡♥♦r♠❡✮✱ ❞❡ ❧♦s q✉❡ q✉❡rrí❛♠♦s ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ✉♥ ❞❛t♦ ♦ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ s✉ ✐♥t❡♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈♦t♦ ❡♥ ❧❛s ♣ró①✐♠❛s
❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❡s ❣❡♥❡r❛❧❡s✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ❤❛❜❧❛♥❞♦ ❞❡ ♠✐❧❧♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣❡rs♦♥❛s✱ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡❜❡r❡♠♦s ❡s❝♦❣❡r
✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ✉♥ s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❡s♣❛ñ♦❧❡s ❛ ❧♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❧❡s r❡❛❧✐③❛rí❛ ✉♥❛ ❡♥❝✉❡st❛✳ ❙✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s q✉❡
❡s❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ❞❡❜❡r❡♠♦s t❡♥❡r ❝✉✐❞❛❞♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡s♣❛ñ♦❧❡s ❝♦♥ ❞❡r❡❝❤♦ ❛ ✈♦t♦
t❡♥❣❛♥ ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s ♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❝❛❡r ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ② ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡s♣✉❡st❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡♥tr❡✈✐st❛❞♦ ♥♦ ❛❢❡❝t❡ ❛ ❧❛
❞❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ♦tr♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ ♥♦t❛ ❝✉r✐♦s❛✱ s❛❜❡❞ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❛②♦rí❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❡♥❝✉❡st❛s ♥❛❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s s❡ ❤❛❝❡♥ ✈í❛ t❡❧❡❢ó♥✐❝❛✱
❧♦ ❝✉❛❧ ❡s ✉♥❛ ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛ ✈✐♦❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❤❛② ❡s♣❛ñ♦❧❡s ❝♦♥
❞❡r❡❝❤♦ ❛ ✈♦t♦ q✉❡ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡♥ t❡❧é❢♦♥♦✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ ❡s ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡ q✉❡ s❛❧❣❛♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

✶✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

 P❛rt❡ ■

❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛

✶✼
❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✷

❊❧ tr❛t❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛

❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛

❊s ✉♥ ❡rr♦r ❝❛♣✐t❛❧ ❡❧ t❡♦r✐③❛r ❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ♣♦s❡❡r ❞❛t♦s✳ ■♥s❡♥s✐❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥♦ ❝♦♠✐❡♥③❛ ❛ ❛❧t❡r❛r
❧♦s ❤❡❝❤♦s ♣❛r❛ ❡♥❝❛❥❛r❧♦s ❡♥ ❧❛s t❡♦rí❛s✱ ❡♥ ❧✉❣❛r ❡♥❝❛❥❛r ❧❛s t❡♦rí❛s ❡♥ ❧♦s ❤❡❝❤♦s

❙❤❡r❧♦❝❦ ❍♦❧♠❡s ✭❆✳ ❈✳ ❉♦②❧❡✮✱ ❡♥ ❯♥ ❡s❝á♥❞❛❧♦ ❡♥ ❇♦❤❡♠✐❛

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❛♣r❡♥❞❡r❡♠♦s ♠ét♦❞♦s ♣❛r❛ r❡s✉♠✐r ② ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡
❞✐st✐♥t♦s t✐♣♦s ❞❡ t❛❜❧❛s✱ ❣rá✜❝♦s ② ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛s✳
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s✱ ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈♦s✱ ❞❛t♦s ❞✐s❝r❡t♦s✱ ❞❛t♦s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦s✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s✱ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s✱ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ s❡❝t♦r❡s✱ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✱ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛✱ ♠♦❞❛✱ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱
❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛✱ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛✱ ❞❛t♦s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s✳

✷✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❖❜t❡♥✐❞♦s ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ❡♥❝✉❡st❛s✱ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ♦ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♦tr♦ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s✱ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s
s✉❡❧❡♥ s❡r t❛♥ ♥✉♠❡r♦s♦s q✉❡ r❡s✉❧t❛♥ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥út✐❧❡s s✐ ♥♦ s♦♥ r❡s✉♠✐❞♦s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛✳ P❛r❛
❡❧❧♦ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ t❛♥t♦ té❝♥✐❝❛s ❣rá✜❝❛s ❝♦♠♦ ♥✉♠ér✐❝❛s✱ ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝✉❛❧❡s ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐♠♦s ❡♥ ❡st❡
❝❛♣ít✉❧♦✳
P♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ ❝❧❛s✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✱ ✉♥ t❛♥t♦ ❛rt✐✜❝✐❛❧✱ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ s❡❣ú♥ s❡ r❡✜❡r❛♥ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥
t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡rá♥ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❝❛s♦s✱ ♦ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ só❧♦ s❡
❝♦♥♦❝❡rá ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ✭❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✮✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡st❛ ❝❧❛s✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ❡♥ ❧♦ r❡❧❛t✐✈♦
❛ ❧♦ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦✳

✷✳✷✳ ❚✐♣♦s ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s

▲♦s ❞❛t♦s ✭♦ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✮ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r ❞❡ ❞♦s t✐♣♦s✿ ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ② ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈♦s✳

✶✾
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

▲♦s ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s s♦♥ ❧♦s q✉❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥ ✉♥❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ r❡✢❡❥❛❞❛ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❡s❝❛❧❛ ♥✉♠ér✐❝❛✳ ❆ s✉ ✈❡③✱
♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❝❧❛s✐✜❝❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ❞✐s❝r❡t♦s s✐ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡♥ ❛❧ ❝♦♥t❡♦ ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛✱ ♦
❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦s s✐ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡♥ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✳

▲♦s ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈♦s ♦ ❝❛t❡❣ór✐❝♦s s❡ r❡✜❡r❡♥ ❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❛s♦❝✐❛rs❡
❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞❡s ❝♦♥ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❞♦ ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦✱ s✐♥♦ ❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s q✉❡ só❧♦ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❝❧❛s✐✜❝❛rs❡✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❱❡❛♠♦s ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡st♦s t✐♣♦s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✿

❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s♣❡s♦r ❡s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✳

❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s✱ ❡❧ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✳

❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦✱ s❡ ❡stá ❛♥❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦ s✐ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛✲
❜❧❡s ♦ ♥♦✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ ❞♦s ❝❛t❡❣♦rí❛s✿ sí ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s
❞❡t❡❝t❛❜❧❡s ♦ ♥♦ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛❜❧❡s✳

❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s ❡s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛

❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❧❛s ❢r❛♥❥❛s ❤♦r❛r✐❛s ❝♦♥st✐t✉②❡♥ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❛✳

✷✳✸✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ❣rá✜❝♦s ② ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈♦s

▲❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠ás s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛ ❞❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♥✉♠ér✐❝❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❛ ❡s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s✳ P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛ ❛ s✉ ✈❡③ ❧❛s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❣rá✜❝❛s
♠ás ✉s✉❛❧❡s✳

❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❛✱ q✉❡ t♦♠❛ ✉♥❛ s❡r✐❡ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ✭❝❛t❡❣♦rí❛s✮✳ ❊❧
♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❞❛ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛❧♦r ❡s ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳ ❙✐ ❡♥ ✈❡③ ❞❡ ❞❛r ❡❧
♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s ♥♦s ✜❥❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s r❡❧❛t✐✈❛s✳

▲❛s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❣rá✜❝❛s ♠ás ✉s✉❛❧❡s s♦♥ ❧♦s ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ② ❧♦s ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ s❡❝t♦r❡s✳

▲♦s ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s s♦♥ ✉♥❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝❛t❡❣♦rí❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥❛
❜❛rr❛ ❝♦❧♦❝❛❞❛ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❡❥❡ ❳ ② ❝✉②❛ ❛❧t✉r❛ s❡❛ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ♦ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤❛s ❝❛t❡❣♦rí❛s✳
▲♦s ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ s❡❝t♦r❡s s♦♥ ❝ír❝✉❧♦s ❞✐✈✐❞✐❞♦s ❡♥ t❛♥t♦s s❡❝t♦r❡s ❝♦♠♦ ❝❛t❡❣♦rí❛s✱ s❡❝t♦r❡s ❝✉②♦ á♥❣✉❧♦
❞❡❜❡ s❡r ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ❝❛t❡❣♦rí❛✳

✷✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❈❛t❡❣♦rí❛ ❋r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❋r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛

P❛ís ◆ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ r❡❛❝t♦r❡s ♥✉❝❧❡❛r❡s Pr♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥
❇é❧❣✐❝❛ ✹ ✵✳✵✹✶
❋r❛♥❝✐❛ ✷✷ ✵✳✷✷✺
❋✐♥❧❛♥❞✐❛ ✷ ✵✳✵✷✵
❆❧❡♠❛♥✐❛ ✼ ✵✳✵✼✶
❍♦❧❛♥❞❛ ✶ ✵✳✵✶✵
❏❛♣ó♥ ✶✶ ✵✳✶✶✷
❙✉❡❝✐❛ ✸ ✵✳✵✸✶
❙✉✐③❛ ✶ ✵✳✵✶✵
❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s ✹✼ ✵✳✹✽✵
❚❖❚❆▲ ✾✽ ✶✳✵✵✵
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✷✳✶✿ ❚❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❚♦♠❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧♦s ✾✽ r❡❛❝t♦r❡s ♥✉❝❧❡❛r❡s ♠ás ❣r❛♥❞❡s ❡♥ t♦❞♦ ❡❧ ♠✉♥❞♦✳ ◆♦s
✜❥❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♦ ❞❛t♦ r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡ ❛❧ ♣❛ís ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡stá♥ ❧♦❝❛❧✐③❛❞♦s✳
▲♦s ❞❛t♦s s❡rí❛♥

❇é❧❣✐❝❛✱ ❇é❧❣✐❝❛✱ ❇é❧❣✐❝❛✱ ❇é❧❣✐❝❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱

❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋r❛♥❝✐❛✱ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞✐❛✱ ❋✐♥❧❛♥❞✐❛✱ ❆❧❡♠❛♥✐❛✱ ❆❧❡♠❛♥✐❛✱ ❆❧❡♠❛♥✐❛✱ ❆❧❡♠❛♥✐❛✱

❆❧❡♠❛♥✐❛✱ ❆❧❡♠❛♥✐❛✱ ❆❧❡♠❛♥✐❛✱ ❍♦❧❛♥❞❛✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❏❛♣ó♥✱ ❙✉❡❝✐❛✱ ❙✉❡❝✐❛✱ ❙✉❡❝✐❛✱

❙✉✐③❛✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s

❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s

❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s

❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s

❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s

❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✱ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s✳

▲❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ② ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s r❡❧❛t✐✈❛s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡s✉♠✐r❧❛s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ t❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❢r❡✲
❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✷✳✶✳

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❧❛s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ② s❡❝t♦r❡s ❞❡ ❡st♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛
❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✶ ② ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✷ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳

✷✳✹✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ❣rá✜❝♦s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s

❙✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ② ést❛ t♦♠❛ ♣♦❝♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s tr❛t❛r❧❛ ❝♦♠♦ s✐ ❢✉❡r❛ ✉♥❛
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❛✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ② ❞✐❜✉❥❛r ✉♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ✉♥❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❝♦♥ ❝❛❞❡♥❛ ❞❡ ♠♦♥t❛❥❡ ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❡♠♣❛q✉❡t❛♥ ♣✐❡③❛s ❡♥ ❝❛❥❛s s❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛
✉♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ✐♥❢♦r♠❛♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣✐❡③❛s
❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛❞❛s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❥❛s ❡①❛♠✐♥❛❞❛s✿

✵✵✵✵✵✵✶✶✶✶✶✶✶✶✶✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✷✸✸✸✸✸✸✸✹✹✹✹✹✹✹✺✺✺✺✻✻✻✻✻✼✼✼✽✽✾

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

Reactores nucleares. País de origen

40
30
20
10
0

Alemania Bélgica EEUU Finlandia Francia Holanda Japón Suecia Suiza

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✶✿ ❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s✳

Reactores nucleares. País de origen

EEUU

Bélgica

Alemania

Suiza
Suecia

Finlandia Japón

Holanda

Francia

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✷✿ ❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ s❡❝t♦r❡s✳

❊❧ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✸✳

❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❧❛ ♠❛②♦rí❛ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛s s♦♥ ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ t♦♠❛♥ ❞❡♠❛s✐❛❞♦s
✈❛❧♦r❡s ❝♦♠♦ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s s❡❛ út✐❧✶ ✳ P♦r ❡❧❧♦ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❣rá✜❝♦
♠ás ❝♦♠ú♥ ② tr❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ❡s ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✳

❊❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥t❡ ❞❡❧ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❛❣r✉♣❛♥ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s
♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ❡st♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s t❡♥❣❛♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♠❛②♦r❡s q✉❡ ✉♥♦✳
P❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠❛♥✉❛❧ ❞❡❜❡♥ s❡❣✉✐rs❡ ❧♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ♣❛s♦s✿

✶✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❛♠♦s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦✱ N ✱ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r✳ ❙❡ r❡❝♦♠✐❡♥❞❛ q✉❡ s❡❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡
✐❣✉❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ r❛í③ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞❛ ❞❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❧♦s ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s s✉❡❧❡♥ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r
♦tr♦ ♠ét♦❞♦✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦ ▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❙t✉r❣❡s
✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ N = ⌈log2 n + 1⌉✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ n ❡s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ②
[] ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♣❛rt❡ ❡♥t❡r❛✳
✶ ❙✐ t♦♠❛ ♠✉❝❤♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s✱ ♠✉② ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ♠❛②♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s só❧♦ ❛♣❛r❡③❝❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❡③✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡

❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s s❡rá ❝❛s✐ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❛ ✶✳

✷✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

Número de piezas defectuosas

10
8
6
4
2
0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✸✿ ❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s✳

✷✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❛♠♦s ❡❧ r❛♥❣♦✱ R✱ ❞❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✱ q✉❡ s❡rá ❧✐❣❡r❛♠❡♥t❡ ♠ás ❛♠♣❧✐♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ r❛♥❣♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳
❊❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡❜❡ ❝♦♠❡♥③❛r ❡♥ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ✭xm ✮ ❧✐❣❡r❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣♦r ❞❡❜❛❥♦ ❞❡❧ ♠í♥✐♠♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ②
t❡r♠✐♥❛r ❡♥ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ✭xM ✮ ❧✐❣❡r❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣♦r ❡♥❝✐♠❛ ❞❡❧ ♠á①✐♠♦✳ ❊❧ r❛♥❣♦ ❞❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ s❡rá✱ ♣♦r
t❛♥t♦✱ R = xM − xm ✳
✸✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❛♠♦s ❧❛ ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞✱ L✱ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ r❛♥❣♦ ❞❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ② ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦
❞❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ L = NR ✳
✹✳ ❙❡ ❝♦♥str✉②❡♥ ❧♦s N ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✿
I1 = [xm , xm + L)
I2 = [xm + L, xm + 2L)
I3 = [xm + 2L, xm + 3L)
...
IN = [xm + N × L, xM ).

✺✳ P❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✱ ❝♦♥t❛♠♦s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ❤❛② ❡♥ é❧✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✳
✻✳ ❊❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡s ✉♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡ ❳ s❡ ❝♦❧♦❝❛♥ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ② s♦❜r❡ ❡❧❧♦s s❡
❝♦♥str✉②❡♥ ❜❛rr❛s ❝✉②❛ ❛❧t✉r❛ s❡❛ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ♦ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛s
❜❛rr❛s ❞❡❜❡♥ ❞✐❜✉❥❛rs❡ s✐♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳ ❊♥ ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s✱ ❡♥ ✈❡③ ❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♠♦
❛❧t✉r❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❜❛rr❛s✱ s❡ t♦♠❛ ❞✐❝❤❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♠♦ ár❡❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❜❛rr❛s✿ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛ ❞❡
✉♥ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡♥ ❡s❝❛❧❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✳

◆♦t❛✳ P♦r ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❞❡t❛❧❧❛r❡♠♦s ♠ás ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡ ❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❞❡st❛❝❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s
q✉❡ ❝❛❡ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❡s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❛❧ ár❡❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜❛rr❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♥str✉②❡ s♦❜r❡ ❡s❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✳
P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ ❡❧ ár❡❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❜❛rr❛ ❡s ❡❧ ✸✵ ✪ ❞❡❧ ár❡❛ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ❡❧ ✸✵✪ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s
❡stá♥ ❡♥ ❞✐❝❤♦ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

Tiempos de procesado

9
8
7
6
Frecuencia

5
4
3
2
1

0.00 0.96 1.92 2.88 3.84 4.80

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✹✿ ❍✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✳

P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ➽q✉é ♣❛s❛rí❛ s✐ t♦♠❛♠♦s ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ♠✉② ❣r❛♥❞❡ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s❄ ❊❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s
❞❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ s❡rí❛ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♠✉② ❣r❛♥❞❡✱ ② ❧❛s ❜❛rr❛s s❡rí❛♥ ♠✉② ❡str❡❝❤❛s✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ ✈❡③ ❞❡
♣❛r❡❝❡r ✉♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s✱ ♣❛r❡❝❡rí❛ ❧❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ r❡❛❧ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ r❡❛❧✳ ❍❛❜❧❛r❡♠♦s ❞❡
❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ② ❞❡❧ ár❡❛ ❞❡❜❛❥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛ ❡♥ ❜r❡✈❡✳ P♦r ❝✐❡rt♦✱ ➽❝ó♠♦ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❡❧ ár❡❛ ❜❛❥♦ ❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥❄

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ ❛❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ♣❛r❛ ♣r♦❝❡s❛r ✷✺ tr❛❜❛❥♦s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❈P❯✳

✶✳✶✼ ✶✳✻✶ ✶✳✶✻ ✶✳✸✽ ✸✳✺✸ ✶✳✷✸ ✸✳✼✻ ✶✳✾✹ ✵✳✾✻ ✹✳✼✺
✵✳✶✺ ✷✳✹✶ ✵✳✼✶ ✵✳✵✷ ✶✳✺✾ ✵✳✶✾ ✵✳✽✷ ✵✳✹✼ ✷✳✶✻ ✷✳✵✶
✵✳✾✷ ✵✳✼✺ ✷✳✺✾ ✸✳✵✼ ✶✳✹

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ✉♥ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s✳

√
✶✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ 25 = 5✱ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r❡♠♦s ✺ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✳

✷✳ ❊❧ ♠í♥✐♠♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡s ✵✳✵✷ ② ❡❧ ♠á①✐♠♦ ✹✳✼✺✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❝♦♠♦ r❛♥❣♦
❞❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ [0, 4.8]✱ ❝✉②❛ ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞ ✭r❛♥❣♦ ❞❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✮ ❡s ✹✳✽.

✸✳ ▲❛ ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❡s✱ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ 4.8

5 = 0.96✳

✹✳ ❈♦♥str✉✐♠♦s ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✿

I1 = [0, 0.96)
I2 = [0.96, 1.92)
I3 = [1.92, 2.88)
I4 = [2.88, 3.84)
I5 = [3.84, 4.8)

✷✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

✺✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❛♠♦s ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ❡s♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✿

❚✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s❛❞♦ ❋r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛

[0, 0.96) ✽
[0.96, 1.92) ✽
[1.92, 2.88) ✺
[2.88, 3.84) ✸
[3.84, 4.8) ✶

✻✳ ❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛♠♦s ❡❧ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ✭❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✹✮✳

✷✳✺✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s

❊s ❝✐❡rt♦ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ♦ ✉♥ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ♥♦s ❛②✉❞❛♥ ❛ t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ ✐♠❛❣❡♥ ❞❡ ❝ó♠♦ s♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱
♣❡r♦ ♥♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ❝♦♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛r ❡s❛ ✐♠❛❣❡♥ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s q✉❡✱ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈❛✱ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❛♥
❧❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❣❡♥❡r❛❧❡s ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✳

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦ tr❡s t✐♣♦s ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s✱ q✉❡ ❜ás✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ ❛ tr❡s ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛s✿ ♣♦r ❞ó♥❞❡
❡stá♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ✭♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✮✱ ❝ó♠♦ ❞❡ ❛❣r✉♣❛❞♦s ❡stá♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ✭♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥✮ ② q✉é
❢♦r♠❛ t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ✭♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛✮✳

✷✳✺✳✶✳ ▼❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ t❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧

▲❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ t❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ s♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ tr❛t❛♥ ❞❡ ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡r ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❛
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛rs❡ ❡❧ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡♥ ❛❧❣ú♥ s❡♥t✐❞♦✳

✷✳✺✳✶✳✶✳ ▼❡❞✐❛

❙❡❛ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛✱ x1 , ..., xn ✳ ▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡s

Pn
i=1 xi
x̄ = .
n

❊st❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡s ❧❛ ♠ás ❝♦♠ú♥ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞❡ t❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ② ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❛❧ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❣r❛✈❡❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s
❞❛t♦s✳

❊s ✐♥♠❡❞✐❛t♦ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r q✉❡ s✐ s❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛ ✉♥ ❝❛♠❜✐♦ ❞❡ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ② ❡s❝❛❧❛ s♦❜r❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ❞❡❧ t✐♣♦ y = ax + b✱
❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ s✉❢r❡ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ❝❛♠❜✐♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ȳ = ax̄ + b✳
❉❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❢♦r♠❛✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❞♦s ♦ ♠ás ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❡s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s
♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✷✳✺✳✶✳✷✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥❛

❙❡❛ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛✱ x1 , ..., xn ✳ ❖r❞❡♥❡♠♦s ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ♠❡♥♦r ❛ ♠❛②♦r✱
x(1) , ..., x(n) ✳

▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❞❡❥❛ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❛♥t❡s ② ❞❡s♣✉és q✉❡ é❧✱ ✉♥❛ ✈❡③
♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦s ❡st♦s✳

❊❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡rá ❞❡ s✐ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✱ n✱ ❡s ♣❛r ♦ ✐♠♣❛r✿

❙✐ n ❡s ✐♠♣❛r✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ ♦❝✉♣❛ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ n+1

2 ✉♥❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❤❛♥ s✐❞♦ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦s
✭❡♥ ♦r❞❡♥ ❝r❡❝✐❡♥t❡ ♦ ❞❡❝r❡❝✐❡♥t❡✮✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ést❡ ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❝❡♥tr❛❧✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✿ Me = x( n+1 ) ✳
2

❙✐ n ❡s ♣❛r✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ❡s ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❛r✐t♠ét✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝❡♥tr❛❧❡s✳ ❈✉❛♥❞♦ n ❡s ♣❛r✱ ❧♦s ❞♦s
x +x
( n2 ) ( n2 +1)
❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ❡stá♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♦❝✉♣❛♥ ❧❛s ♣♦s✐❝✐♦♥❡s n
2 ② n2 +1✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✿ Me = 2 ✳

▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r
♠ás r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ést♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❡s ♠ás r♦❜✉st❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳ ❱❡á♠♦s q✉é s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛ ❡st♦ ❡♥
✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s✿

0012345

❙✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s 0+0+1+2+3+4+5
7 = 2.1429✱ ② s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ✷✳
P❡r♦ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♣♦r ❡rr♦r ♦ ♣♦r ❝❛s✉❛❧✐❞❛❞ ♦❜t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❞❛t♦ ❡♥♦r♠❡♠❡♥t❡ ❣r❛♥❞❡ ❡♥
r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ r❡st♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✱ ✽✵✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ s❡rí❛
0 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 3 + 4 + 5 + 80
= 11.875
8

② ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ✷✳✺✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ✉♥ s♦❧♦ ❞❛t♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞❡s♣❧❛③❛r ❡♥♦r♠❡♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❤❛st❛ ❝♦♥✈❡rt✐r❧❛ ❡♥ ✉♥❛
♠❡❞✐❞❛ ♣♦❝♦ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❛✱ ♣❡r♦ só❧♦ ❞❡s♣❧❛③❛rá ❧✐❣❡r❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛✳ ❊s❡ ❡s ❡❧ ♠♦t✐✈♦ ♣♦r ❡❧ q✉❡ s❡
❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ❡s ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ r♦❜✉st❛✳

✷✳✺✳✶✳✸✳ ▼♦❞❛ ♦ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ♠♦❞❛❧

❊♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ ❧❛ ♠♦❞❛ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♠ás ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❡s q✉❡ s✐ ést♦s s♦♥
❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ❝♦♥ ♠✉❝❤♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛♣❡♥❛s s❡ r❡♣✐t❛♥✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡
❝❛s♦✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✈✐♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❣rá✜❝❛s✱ s❡ ❞❡❜❡ ❛❣r✉♣❛r ♣♦r ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✱ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ ❞❛rs❡
✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❝♦♠♦ ♠♦❞❛✱ s✐♥♦ ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ♠♦❞❛❧✱ ❛q✉é❧ ❝♦♥ ♠❛②♦r ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛✳

✷✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

✷✳✺✳✷✳ ❈✉❛♥t✐❧❡s

▲♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s s♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧✐❣❛❞♦s ❛❧ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ▲❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❛ ❧❛
q✉❡ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ ❡s ♠✉② s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛ ② ♠✉② ♣rá❝t✐❝❛✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛ ❝ó♠♦ ❡s ✉♥ ❞❛t♦ r❡s♣❡❝t♦
❞❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳
❙✐✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ✉♥ ♥✐ñ♦ ❞❡ ✹ ❛ñ♦s ♣❡s❛ ✶✸ ❦✐❧♦s✱ ➽❡stá ❞❡s♥✉tr✐❞♦❄ ➽❡stá s❛♥♦❄ ▲❛ r❡s♣✉❡st❛ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r q✉❡
❞❡♣❡♥❞❡✳ ➽❉ó♥❞❡ ✈✐✈❡ ❡❧ ♥✐ñ♦❄ ❊s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♣♦rq✉❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡♥ ❊st❛❞♦s ❯♥✐❞♦s ❧♦s ♥✐ñ♦s s♦♥ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧
♠ás ❣r❛♥❞❡s q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡♥ ❏❛♣ó♥✳ ◗✉✐③á ♠ás q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ♥♦s ✐♥t❡r❡s❡ s❛❜❡r q✉é ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛ t✐❡♥❡
❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ❞❡❧ ♥✐ñ♦ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♣❛rt❡✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ ♥♦s ❞✐❝❡♥ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥✐ñ♦ ❡stá ❡♥tr❡
❡❧ ✶ ✪ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♥✐ñ♦s q✉❡ ♠❡♥♦s ♣❡s❛♥✱ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❝r❡❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦✳

❊❧ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ p ✭Qp ✮ ❞❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s (0 ≤ p ≤ 1)✱ s❡rí❛ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ s✐t✉❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♠♦❞♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ 100p % ❞❡
❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s s❡❛♥ ♠❡♥♦r❡s ♦ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s q✉❡ é❧ ② ❡❧ r❡st♦ ✭100(1 − p) %✮ ♠❛②♦r❡s✳

◆♦ ♦❜st❛♥t❡✱ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r ✉♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s✱ s♦❜r❡ t♦❞♦ ❝♦♥ ♣♦❝♦s
❞❛t♦s✿ ❧♦ ♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ❡s q✉❡ ♥♦ ❡①✐st❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❡①❛❝t♦ q✉❡ ❞❡❥❡ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❡❧ 100p % ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ② ❡❧
r❡st♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✳ P♦r ❡s❡ ♠♦t✐✈♦✱ ❧♦s ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥ ✉♥❛s ❢ór♠✉❧❛s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣♦❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛
♦❜t❡♥❡r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s ❞♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ❧♦ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥✳ ❊♥ ♥✉❡str♦ ❝❛s♦✱ ❛ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛
❞❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s✱ ❧❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡s❛s ❢ór♠✉❧❛s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣♦❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❛ ♠❛♥♦ ❤❛rí❛♥ ♠✉② ❧❡♥t♦s ② ♣❡s❛❞♦s
❧♦s ❝á❧❝✉❧♦s✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛r ✉♥ ❝♦♥✈❡♥✐♦ ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠ás s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦✿ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛r❡♠♦s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧
❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ❢♦r♠❛✿
x(k) +x(k+1)
✶✳ ❙✐ ❡❧ 100p % ❞❡ n✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ n ❡s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✱ ❡s ✉♥ ❡♥t❡r♦✱ k✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s Qp = 2 .

✷✳ ❙✐ ❡❧ 100p % ❞❡ n ♥♦ ❡s ✉♥ ❡♥t❡r♦✱ ❧♦ r❡❞♦♥❞❡❛♠♦s ❛❧ ❡♥t❡r♦ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✱ k✱ ② ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s Qp = x(k) ✳

◆♦ ♦❧✈✐❞❡♠♦s✱ s✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s ✈❛♥ ❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❧❛s ❢ór♠✉❧❛s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣♦❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛
❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ ❡①tr❛ñ❛r s✐ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♥ ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❛❧
❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ♥✉❡str♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❛ ♠❛♥♦ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❡ ❡st♦s ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛s✳
❊①✐st❡♥ ❞✐✈❡rs♦s ♥♦♠❜r❡s ♣❛r❛ r❡❢❡r✐rs❡ ❛ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s t✐♣♦s ❞❡ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s✳ ❊♥tr❡ ❡❧❧♦s✿

▲♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s s♦♥ ❧♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s q✉❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡♥ ✶✵✵ ♣❛rt❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s♦♥ ❧♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s
✵✳✵✶ ✭♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ✶✮✱ ✵✳✵✷ ✭♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ✷✮✱ ✳✳✳✱ ✵✳✾✾ ✭♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ✾✾✮✳ ❙✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ♣♦r Pα ❛❧ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ α✱ ❝♦♥
α = 1, 2, 3, ..., 99✱ s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ Pα = Qα/100 ✳ ❊♥ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❉❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛ ❡s ♠ás ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡ ❤❛❜❧❛r ❞❡
♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s q✉❡ ❞❡ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s ♣♦rq✉❡ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡♥ ❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞❡s ❡♥tr❡ ✵ ② ✶✵✵✱ ❡♥ t❛♥t♦ ♣♦r ❝✐❡♥t♦✱ q✉❡ s♦♥
♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❛r ♣♦r t♦❞♦ ❡❧ ♠✉♥❞♦✳

▲♦s ❝✉❛rt✐❧❡s ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥ ❛ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❝✉❛tr♦ ♣❛rt❡s ✐❣✉❛❧❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ ❛ ❧♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s
✵✳✷✺✱ ✵✳✺ ✭♠❡❞✐❛♥❛✮ ② ✵✳✼✺✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❛❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✷✺ t❛r❡❛s ❡♥ ✉♥❛

❈P❯✳ ❆❤♦r❛ ❧♦s ❤❡♠♦s ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♠❡♥♦r ❛ ♠❛②♦r ✭❡♥ ✺ ✜❧❛s✮✿

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✵✳✵✷ ✵✳✼✺ ✶✳✶✼ ✶✳✻✶ ✷✳✺✾

✵✳✶✺ ✵✳✽✷ ✶✳✷✸ ✶✳✾✹ ✸✳✵✼

✵✳✶✾ ✵✳✾✷ ✶✳✸✽ ✷✳✵✶ ✸✳✺✸

✵✳✹✼ ✵✳✾✻ ✶✳✹✵ ✷✳✶✻ ✸✳✼✻

✵✳✼✶ ✶✳✶✻ ✶✳✺✾ ✷✳✹✶ ✹✳✼✺

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ② ❛ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛r❧❛s✳

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s ✶✳✻✸✳ ▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ♦❝✉♣❛ ❡❧ ❧✉❣❛r ✶✸ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛✱ ② s✉ ✈❛❧♦r ❡s

✶✳✸✽✳ ❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s ❛❧❣♦ ♠❛②♦r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛✿ ❡st♦ ❡s ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s

✈❛❧♦r❡s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ♠ás ❛❧t♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ r❡st♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ♣✉❞✐♠♦s ✈❡r ❡♥ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✳

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡❧ P25 ♦ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ ✵✳✷✺ ♦❝✉♣❛ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ✼✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✷✺ ✪ ❞❡ ✷✺ ❡s ✻✳✷✺✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ P25 = 0.82✳
❉❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❢♦r♠❛✱ P75 = Q0.75 = 2.16✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ ♦❝✉♣❛ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ✶✾✳ P♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ q✉❡ ❧♦s

✈❛❧♦r❡s ♠ás ❜❛❥♦s ❡stá♥ ♠✉② ❛❣r✉♣❛❞♦s ❛❧ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ ② s❡ ✈❛♥ ❞✐s♣❡rs❛♥❞♦ ♠ás ❝♦♥❢♦r♠❡ s❡ ❤❛❝❡♥ ♠ás

❛❧t♦s✳

✷✳✺✳✸✳ ▼❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ♦ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥

▲❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ♦ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ❡stá♥ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ❝♦♥ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ t❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧✱ ②❛ q✉❡

❧♦ q✉❡ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡♥ ❡s ❝✉❛♥t✐✜❝❛r ❝ó♠♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❞♦s ♦ ❞✐s♣❡rs♦s ❡stá♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❡st❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s✳

◆♦s♦tr♦s ♥♦s ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❧✐♠✐t❛r ❛ ❞❛r ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

▲❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❡s ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❡♥ q✉é ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡stá♥ ❛❣r✉♣❛❞♦s ❡♥ t♦r♥♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳ ❊st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥

t❛♥ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❡s ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦t✐✈♦s ♠ás ❛❜s✉r❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❛❧❛ ♣r❡♥s❛ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ s♦❝✐❡❞❛❞ ❡♥

❣❡♥❡r❛❧✳ ▲❛ ❣❡♥t❡ ♥♦ s❡ ❢í❛ ❞❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❧❧❛♠❛♥ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡♥tr❡ ♦tr♦s ♠♦t✐✈♦s✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♣❛r❡❝❡ q✉❡ t♦❞♦

❡❧ ♠✉♥❞♦ ❝r❡❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ s❡r ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ✈á❧✐❞♦ ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦s✱ ② ❡s♦ ❡s ♠❛t❡r✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P❡♥s❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡❧ s❛❧❛r✐♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡s♣❛ñ♦❧❡s✳ ❊♥ ✷✵✵✺ ❢✉❡ ❞❡ ✶✽✳✼✺✵ ❡✉r♦s ❛❧ ❛ñ♦✳ ❆❤♦r❛ ❜✐❡♥✱

❡s❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✐♥❝❧✉②❡ t❛♥t♦ ❛ ❧❛s r❡❣✐♦♥❡s ♠ás ❞❡s❛rr♦❧❧❛❞❛s ❝♦♠♦ ❛ ❧❛s ♠ás ❞❡s❢❛✈♦r❡❝✐❞❛s ②✱ ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛

❝✐❢r❛ ❣❡♥❡r❛rá ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠❛❧❡st❛r ❡♥ ❣r❛♥ ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ✭❝♦♥ t♦❞❛ s❡❣✉r✐❞❛❞✱ ♠ás ❞❡❧ ✺✵ ✪✮✱ ❝✉②♦ s❛❧❛r✐♦

❡stá ♣♦r ❞❡❜❛❥♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ ❢r❛s❡ ♠✉② ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ q✉❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ✏ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡s ❡❧ ❛rt❡ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝✉á❧ s✐ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛ñ♦❧ s❡

❝♦♠❡ ✉♥ ♣♦❧❧♦ ② ♦tr♦ ♥♦ s❡ ❝♦♠❡ ♥✐♥❣✉♥♦✱ s❡ ❤❛ ❝♦♠✐❞♦ ♠❡❞✐♦ ♣♦❧❧♦ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ✑✳ ❊s❛ ❢r❛s❡ s❡ ✉s❛ ❡♥ ♠✉❝❤❛s

♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ r✐❞✐❝✉❧✐③❛r ❛ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❜❡rí❛ s❡r✈✐r ♣❛r❛ ❞❡s❛❝r❡❞✐t❛r ❛ q✉✐❡♥ ❧❛ ❞✐❝❡✱

♣♦r s✉ ✐❣♥♦r❛♥❝✐❛✳

❍❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ ❝✉❧♣❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❣❡♥t❡ ❡s♣❡r❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠ás ❞❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡s ❝❛♣❛③

❞❡ ❞❛r✱ ♥✐ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♠✉② ♣♦❝❛ ❣❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥♦③❝❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

✷✳✺✳✸✳✶✳ ❱❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧

❉❛❞♦s ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛✱ x1 , ..., xn ✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧

✷ ❞❡ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡s

Pn 2
(xi − x̄)
s2n−1 = i=1
.
n−1

✷✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

◆♦t❛✳ P❛r❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❛ ♠❛♥♦ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ r❡s✉❧t❛ ♠ás ❝ó♠♦❞♦ ❞❡s❛rr♦❧❧❛r ✉♥ ♣♦❝♦ s✉ ❢ór♠✉❧❛✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✈❛♠♦s
❛ ✈❡r✿
Pn Pn Pn Pn
− x̄)2
i=1 (xi x2i − 2x̄ i=1 xi + nx̄2 x2 − 2x̄nx̄ + nx̄2
s2n−1 = = i=1
= i=1 i
n−1 n−1 n−1
Pn
x2 − nx̄2
= i=1 i .
n−1

❈✉❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r s❡❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ♠ás ❞✐s♣❡rs♦s✱ ❤❡t❡r♦❣é♥❡♦s ♦ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s♦♥ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ❈✉❛♥t♦
♠ás ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛ s❡❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ♠ás ❛❣r✉♣❛❞♦s ✉ ❤♦♠♦❣é♥❡♦s s♦♥ ❞✐❝❤♦s ❞❛t♦s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t✉r❛ ❞❡ ✺ ♣❡rs♦♥❛s ❛rr♦❥❛ ❧♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✿

1.76 1.72 1.80 1.73 1.79

❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② s✉ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳

▲♦ ú♥✐❝♦ q✉❡ ♥❡❝❡s✐t❛♠♦s ❡s xi = 8.8 ② x2i = 15.493✳ ❆ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❡st♦s ❞❛t♦s✱
P5 P5
i=1 i=1

8.8
x̄ = = 1.76
5

②
15.493 − 5 × 1.762
s2n−1 = = 0.00125
4

❊♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ r❡s♣❡❝t❛ ❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❝❛♠❜✐♦s ❞❡ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ② ❡s❝❛❧❛✱ só❧♦ ❧❡
❛❢❡❝t❛♥ ❧♦s s❡❣✉♥❞♦s✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ y = ax + b✱ s❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛ q✉❡ s2y;n−1 = a2 s2x;n−1 ✳
❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ ❜✐❡♥ ❤❛❜í❛♠♦s ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱
❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ t♦t❛❧ ❡s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ♥♦ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❛sí ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✳

✷✳✺✳✸✳✷✳ ❉❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♦ ❡st❛♥❞❛r ♠✉❡str❛❧

❊❧ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s s✉ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✳ P♦r ❝ó♠♦ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✐✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡
s❡ ❡①♣r❡s❛ ❡♥ ❦✐❧♦s✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ t❛♠❜✐é♥ s❡ ❡①♣r❡s❛ ❡♥ ❦✐❧♦s✱ ♣❡r♦ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ s❡ ❡①♣r❡s❛ ❡♥ ❦✐❧♦s2 ✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡
q✉❡ s❡❛ ❞✐❢í❝✐❧ ✈❛❧♦r❛r s✐ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s ♠✉② ❡❧❡✈❛❞❛ ♦ ♠✉② ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛✳

q
❊s ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♦ ❡st❛♥❞❛r ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❝♦♠♦ sn−1 = s2n−1 ✱
❝✉②❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡s ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

◆♦t❛✳ ▲❛ ❘❡❣❧❛ ❊♠♣ír✐❝❛

❙✐ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝❛♠♣❛♥❛ ♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❥♦r♦❜❛✱ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡
❞❛t♦s t❡♥❞rá ❧❛s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❧✐❜r♦s s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❘❡❣❧❛ ❊♠♣ír✐❝❛✿

✶✳ ❆♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ✻✽ ✪ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡st❛rá ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ (x̄ − sn−1 , x̄ + sn−1 ) .

✷✳ ❆♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡st❛rá ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ (x̄ − 2sn−1 , x̄ + 2sn−1 ) .

✸✳ ❈❛s✐ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡st❛rá♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ (x̄ − 3sn−1 , x̄ + 3sn−1 ) .

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✺✿ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐ó♥ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❣❧❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛✳

✷✳✺✳✸✳✸✳ ❈♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥

❈♦♠♦ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ❝❛❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❥✉♥t♦ ❝♦♥ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥✱ ♣r❡❢❡✲
r❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛✳ ❯♥❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❡♥ tér♠✐♥♦s r❡❧❛t✐✈♦s ❝ó♠♦ ❡s ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡
❡s ♣r❡❝✐s❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ② ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✭❡♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❛❜s♦❧✉t♦✮✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ s❡
❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥✳

❉❛❞♦ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ x̄ ② ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ sn−1 ✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✉ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♠♦
sn−1
CV = .
|x̄|

▲❛ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ✈❡♥t❛❥❛ ❞❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s q✉❡ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡ ♠ás ❢á❝✐❧
s✉ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥✳

✸✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❈P❯ ❞❡ ✷✺ t❛r❡❛s✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s ✶✳✹✷✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ s✉
1.63 = 0.73✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❡stá♥❞❛r ❡s
❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❡s ✶✳✶✾✱ ② ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ 1.19
❛❧❣♦ ♠ás ❞❡❧ ✼✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳ ❊st♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♥♦ ❡stá♥ ♠✉② ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❞♦s ❡♥ t♦r♥♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱
♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❧t♦s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦ ❛♥t❡s✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❊❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥✱ t❛❧ ② ❝♦♠♦ ❡stá ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦✱ só❧♦ t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s
❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ s✐❣♥♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ t♦❞♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s ♦ t♦❞♦s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦s✳ ❙✐ ❤✉❜✐❡r❛ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❞✐st✐♥t♦ s✐❣♥♦✱ ❧❛
♠❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❞rí❛ ❡st❛r ♣ró①✐♠❛ ❛ ❝❡r♦ ♦ s❡r ❝❡r♦✱ ✐♠♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐t❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡③❝❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞♦r✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❙✉❡❧❡ s❡r ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❞❡ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ♠❛②♦r q✉❡ ✶✱ ❧♦
❝✉❛❧ ❡s r✐❣✉r♦s❛♠❡♥t❡ ❢❛❧s♦✳ ❙✐ ❧♦ ❡①♣r❡s❛♠♦s ❡♥ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡✱ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r s✉♣❡r✐♦r
❛❧ ✶✵✵ ✪ s✐♥ ♠ás q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ s❡❛ ♠❛②♦r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❝♦s❛ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡✱ ♣♦r ❝✐❡rt♦✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❆ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛r ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ✐♥♠❡❞✐❛t❛♠❡♥t❡ s✉r❣❡ ❧❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ❞❡ ➽❝✉á♥❞♦

♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡s ❛❧t♦ ② ❝✉á♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❡s ❜❛❥♦❄ ❘❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ♥♦ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ r❡s♣✉❡st❛ ♣r❡❝✐s❛✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡
❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ❡st❡♠♦s ❛♥❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦✳ ❙✐✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡st❛♠♦s ❛♥❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s
q✉❡ ♣♦r s✉ ♥❛t✉r❛❧❡③❛ ❞❡❜❡♥ s❡r ♠✉② ❤♦♠♦❣é♥❡♦s✱ ✉♥ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✶✵ ✪ s❡rí❛ ❡♥♦r♠❡✱ ♣❡r♦
s✐ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦ ❡st❛♠♦s ❛♥❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ♣♦r s✉ ♥❛t✉r❛❧❡③❛ s♦♥ ♠✉② ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ✉♥ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡
✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✶✵ ✪ s❡rí❛ ♠✉② ♣❡q✉❡ñ♦✳
P♦r t♦❞♦ ❡❧❧♦✱ ❧♦ r❡❝♦♠❡♥❞❛❜❧❡ ❡s ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥t❡♥❞✐❡♥❞♦ s✉ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❞♦ ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦✱
❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❡♥t❡♥❞✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛♥❞♦
s✉ ✈❛❧♦r ❡♥ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❡st❡♠♦s tr❛❜❛❥❛♥❞♦✳

✷✳✺✳✹✳ ▼❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛✳ ❈♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛

▲❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛♥ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐ó♥ ❣rá✜❝❛✱ ❜✐❡♥ s❡❛ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ♦ ❡❧
❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥❛ s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥ ✐❞❡❛❧ ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s s❡ r❡♣❛rt❡♥ ❡♥ ✐❣✉❛❧ ♠❡❞✐❞❛
❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ② ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

❊s❛ s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡stá♥ r❡♣❛rt✐❞♦s ❞❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❢♦r♠❛ ❛ ✉♥♦ ② ♦tr♦ ❧❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡
❝♦♠♦ s✐♠❡trí❛✱ ② s❡ ❞✐❝❡ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡s s✐♠étr✐❝❛✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❛❞❡♠ás✱ s✉
♠❡❞✐❛♥❛✱ s✉ ♠♦❞❛ ② s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡♥✳
P♦r ❝♦♥tr❛✱ s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❛s✐♠étr✐❝❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ s✐ ❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ✭❛❜s♦❧✉t❛s ♦ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛s✮
❞❡s❝✐❡♥❞❡♥ ♠ás ❧❡♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ q✉❡ ♣♦r ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✳ ❙✐ ❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡s❝✐❡♥❞❡♥ ♠ás ❧❡♥t❛♠❡♥t❡
♣♦r ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ q✉❡ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ❞✐r❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❛s✐♠étr✐❝❛ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✳

P❛r❛ ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❧❛ s✐♠❡trí❛ ❞❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛ ❞❡ ❋✐s❤❡r✿
Pn 3
i=1 (xi −x̄)
n−1
As = .
s3n−1

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✸✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ❡✈✐t❛r ❡❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ② ❤❛❝❡r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ s❡❛ ❡s❝❛❧❛r ② ♣♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛✱
❞✐✈✐❞✐♠♦s ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝✉❜♦ ❞❡ s✉ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛✳ ❉❡ ❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❛❧♦r❛r s✐ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s s♦♥ ♠ás ♦ ♠❡♥♦s
s✐♠étr✐❝♦s q✉❡ ♦tr♦s✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ♥♦ ❡sté♥ ♠❡❞✐❞♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✳ ▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❡
❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛ ❡s ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿

❚❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r s❡❛ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❛❜s♦❧✉t♦✱ ♠ás ❛s✐♠étr✐❝♦s s❡rá♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳

❊❧ s✐❣♥♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ♥♦s ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ❡❧ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛✿

❼ ❙✐ ❡s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛ ❡s ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✳

❼ ❙✐ ❡s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛ ❡s ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✳

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✻✿ ❋♦r♠❛s tí♣✐❝❛s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❈P❯ ❞❡ ✷✺ t❛r❡❛s✱ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛
❞❡ ❋✐s❤❡r ❡s ✵✳✾✶✱ ❧♦ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❤❛❜í❛♠♦s ✈✐st♦ ② ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✐❞❛❞✱ ♣♦♥❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ q✉❡ ❧❛
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❛s✐♠étr✐❝❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✱ ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s❛❞♦ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❛❧t♦s ❡♥
r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ r❡st♦✳

✷✳✺✳✺✳ P❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ② ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s

❈✉❛♥❞♦ s❡ tr❛❜❛❥❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ②❛ s❡❛ ést❛ t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡ ♦ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧✱ ❧❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s
❞❡ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✱ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ② ❢♦r♠❛✱ s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡
♣rá❝t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ s✐❡♠♣r❡ s❡ tr❛❜❛❥❛ ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ♦ ❜✐❡♥ tr❛❜❛❥❛♠♦s ❝♦♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧❡s ♦
❝♦♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s t❛♥❣✐❜❧❡s ✭✜♥✐t❛s✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✮✱ ♣❡r♦ ❝♦♥ ♠✉❝❤ís✐♠♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s✳
❋r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❡st♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛♥ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❛♥á❧♦❣♦s r❡❢❡r✐❞♦s ❛ t♦❞❛ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✳
❊st♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s✱ s♦♥✱ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❞❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r✸ ✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠✲
♣❧♦✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛rí❛ ✐❣✉❛❧ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ♣❡r♦ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❞❛ ❧❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ ❛
t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❡s♦ ❡s ♣rá❝t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ❞❡ ♣♦♥❡r ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛✱ ✈❡r❡♠♦s
✸ ❙❛❧✈♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✜♥✐t❛s ❝♦♥ ♣♦❝♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s✳

✸✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❡♥ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦s ♣♦st❡r✐♦r❡s q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛r ♦ ❡st✐♠❛r ❧♦s
♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s✳

✷✳✻✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡t❡❝t❛r ❞❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s ♦ ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡

r❛♥❣♦

❍❛② ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥❛ ♦ ♠ás ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✐♥❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❡s ❡♥ ❛❧❣ú♥ s❡♥t✐❞♦✳
P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❈P❯ ❞❡ ✷✺ t❛r❡❛s✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s
✉♥❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥ ♠ás✱ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❛ ✽✺✱ ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❈P❯ s❡ ❜❧♦q✉❡ó ② ❤✉❜♦ q✉❡ r❡✐♥✐❝✐❛r❧❛✳ ❊st❡ ❞❛t♦✱ q✉❡
♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ❞❡s❡❡♠♦s ✐♥❝❧✉✐r✱ ❡s ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦ ❛tí♣✐❝♦ ♦ ✈❛❧♦r ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡ r❛♥❣♦✳

❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ✉♥❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❡s ✐♥✉s✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❣r❛♥❞❡ ♦ ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛ ❡♥ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❡♠ás ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ✉♥
❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ ❞❛t♦ ❛tí♣✐❝♦ ♦ ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡ r❛♥❣♦✳

❊st♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s s♦♥ ❛tr✐❜✉✐❜❧❡s✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ❝❛✉s❛s✿
✶✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❤❛ s✐❞♦ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❜❛s❡ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡✳
✷✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♣r♦✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞✐st✐♥t❛ ❛ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ❡st✉❞✐❛♥❞♦✳
✸✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❡s ❝♦rr❡❝t♦ ♣❡r♦ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ♠✉② ♣♦❝♦ ❝♦♠ú♥✳
❆ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡r ❞♦s ♠❛♥❡r❛s ❞❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r s✐ ✉♥ ❞❛t♦ ❡s ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡ r❛♥❣♦✳

✷✳✻✳✶✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ r❡❣❧❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛

❊st❡ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❡s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦ s✐ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s t✐❡♥❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❝❛♠♣❛♥❛✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛♣❧✐❝❛r
❧❛ r❡❣❧❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ❞❡t❡❝t❛r q✉é ❞❛t♦s ❡stá♥ ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❛♥❣♦s ❧ó❣✐❝♦s s❡❣ú♥ ❡st❛ r❡❣❧❛✳
❙❡❣ú♥ ❡❧❧❛✱ ❡❧ ✾✾✳✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡stá♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ [x̄ − 3sn−1 , x̄ + 3sn−1 ]✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛rá♥ ❞❛t♦s
❛tí♣✐❝♦s ❧♦s xi q✉❡ ♥♦ ♣❡rt❡♥❡③❝❛♥ ❛❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ [x̄ − 3sn−1 , x̄ + 3sn−1 ] .

✷✳✻✳✷✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s

❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s x1 , ..., xn ✳ ❊❧ ♣r♦❝❡❞✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❡s ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿

✶✳ ❙❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛♥ ❧♦s ❝✉❛rt✐❧❡s ♣r✐♠❡r♦ ② t❡r❝❡r♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s ✷✺ ② ✼✺✱ P25 ② P75 ✳ ❙❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❡❧
❧❧❛♠❛❞♦ r❛♥❣♦ ✐♥t❡r❝✉❛rtí❧✐❝♦ ✭■❘ ♦ ❘■ ✮✱ IR = P75 − P25 ✳
✷✳ ❙❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥ ❞❛t♦s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s ❛q✉❡❧❧♦s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r❡s ❛ P25 − 1.5IR ♦ s✉♣❡r✐♦r❡s ❛ P75 + 1.5IR✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✸✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

▼❡❞✐❛s ❉❡s✈✳ ❚í♣✐❝❛ ❈❱ ❈♦❡❢✳ ❆s✐♠❡trí❛

❙❡r✐❡ ✶ ✾✷✳✵✶ ✸✳✻✷ ✷✺✳✹✵ ✲✶✳✼✾
❙❡r✐❡ ✷ ✾✷✳✼✹ ✸✳✼✸ ✷✹✳✽✻ ✶✳✼✶
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✷✳✷✿ ❘❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣❧❛❝❛s ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r s✐ ❤❛② ❛❧❣ú♥ ❞❛t♦ ❛tí♣✐❝♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❈P❯ ❞❡
✷✺ t❛r❡❛s✳
❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ♥♦ t❡♥í❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❝❛♠♣❛♥❛✱ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❣❧❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ♥♦ ❡s ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ♠ás
❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞❡t❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s✳
P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ P50 = 1.38✱ P25 = 0.82 ② P75 = 2.16✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ IR = 2.16−0.82 = 1.34✱ ② ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❢✉❡r❛
❞❡❧ ❝ú❛❧ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡ r❛♥❣♦ ❡s [0.82 − 1.5 × 1.34, 2.16 + 1.5 × 1.34] = [−1.19, 4.17]✳ ❉❡
❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ✹✳✼✺ ❡s ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡ r❛♥❣♦✳

❍❛② ✉♥❛ ✈❡rs✐ó♥ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ♠ét♦❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❞❡t❡❝t❛r ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s✿ s❡ ❧❧❛♠❛
❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❝❛ ❥❛ ♦ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❝❛ ❥❛s ② ❜✐❣♦t❡s ♦ ✭❡♥ ✐♥❣❧és✮ ❜♦①♣❧♦t✳ ❊st❡ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ✐♥❝❧✉②❡ ❡♥ ✉♥

❣rá✜❝♦✿

✶✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ✭♦ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❝✉❛rt✐❧✱ Q2 ✮✿ ❡s❡ ❡s ❡❧ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛✳

✷✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s ✷✺ ② ✼✺✱ ❝✉❛rt✐❧❡s ♣r✐♠❡r♦ ② t❡r❝❡r♦ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ✭Q1 ② Q3 ✮✿ s♦♥ ❧♦s ❧❛❞♦s
✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ② s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛✳

✸✳ ❊❧ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ♥♦ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧♦s ❧í♠✐t❡s P25 − 1.5 × IR ② P75 + 1.5 × IR✳ ❊♥ s✉ ❧✉❣❛r✱ s❡ñ❛❧❛ ❧♦s ú❧t✐♠♦s
♣✉♥t♦s ♥♦ ❛tí♣✐❝♦s ♣♦r ❞❡❜❛❥♦ ✭Li ✮ ② ♣♦r ❡♥❝✐♠❛ ✭Ls ✮✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s❡ñ❛❧❛ ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❞❛t♦ ♣♦r ❡♥❝✐♠❛ ❞❡
P25 − 1.5 × IR ② ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❞❛t♦ ♣♦r ❞❡❜❛❥♦ ❞❡ P75 + 1.5 × IR✱ ② ❧♦s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❜✐❣♦t❡s q✉❡ s❛❧❡♥
❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛✳

✹✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❝♦♥ ❝ír❝✉❧♦s ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s✳

✷✳✼✳ ❙♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝❛♣❛s ❞❡ ❞✐ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦

❨❛ ❡st❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡r ❡♥ ♣❛rt❡ ❛ ❧❛s ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ q✉❡❞❛r♦♥ ❧❛t❡♥t❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ t❡♠❛ ❞❡
✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣❧❛❝❛s ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♠❡♥③❛r r❡❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ✉♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ s❡♣❛r❛♥❞♦ ♣♦r s❡r✐❡s✱ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥❞♦
♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛✱ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ② ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛✳ ❚♦❞♦s ❡st♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥
❡♥ ❧❛ ❚❛❜❧❛ ✷✳✷✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❡s ❝✐❡rt♦ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❛♣✉♥tá❜❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ t❡♠❛ ❞❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✱ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❡stá♥ ❡♥ t♦r♥♦ ❛ ✾✵
✭❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s ✾✷ ♠ás ♦ ♠❡♥♦s✮✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ ✈❡♠♦s q✉❡ sí q✉❡ ❤❛② ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♠♦❞❡r❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥
❈❱ ❡♥ t♦r♥♦ ❛❧ ✷✺ ✪✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡✱ ❛❧ ♣❛r❡❝❡r✱ ❧❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ q✉❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❝✐ó♥ s❡ r❡❛❧✐③ó✱
❛❢❡❝t❛r♦♥ ❡♥ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✿ t♦❞♦ ❡st♦ ❡s ♠✉② ♣r❡❧✐♠✐♥❛r ♣♦rq✉❡ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥
❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛ ❞❡ ❡♥ q✉é ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s s❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r♦♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s✳ P♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛r
❛❧❣♦ ♠✉② ❧❧❛♠❛t✐✈♦✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ s❡r✐❡ s♦♥ ❝❧❛r❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛s✐♠étr✐❝♦s ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ✭❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡

✸✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✼✿ ❉❡s❝r✐♣❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❥❛✳ ❋✉❡♥t❡✿ ❤tt♣✿✴✴❡s✳✇✐❦✐♣❡❞✐❛✳♦r❣✴✇✐❦✐✴❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛❴❞❡❴❝❛❥❛

❛s✐♠❡tr✐❛ ❞❡ ✲✶✳✼✾✮✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ s❡r✐❡ s♦♥ ❝❧❛r❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛s✐♠étr✐❝♦s ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ✭❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡
❞❡ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛ ❞❡ ✶✳✼✶✮✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❡r❛ ❡s♣❡r❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ s✉r❣✐❡r❛♥ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ❞♦s s❡r✐❡s✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s
♣r❡❣✉♥t❛r♥♦s q✉é ♣❛só✳
P❛r❛ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ♠ás ♣r♦❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❧♦s ❞♦s ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡
❝❛❥❛ ❞❡ ❛♠❜❛s s❡r✐❡s✳ ❆♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✽✳ ❈♦♥ ❡❧❧❛s✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ r❡s✉♠✐r ❛❤♦r❛ ❧❛s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❧♦s
❛✉t♦r❡s t♦♠❛r♦♥ ❡♥ ✈✐st❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ② ❧❛s ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥❡s ❛ ❧❛s q✉❡ ❧❧❡❣❛r♦♥✳
❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s s❡r✐❡s ♥♦ ❛❢❡❝t❛♥ s♦r♣r❡♥❞❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s✱ s✐♥♦
só❧♦ ❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s q✉❡ s❡ ✈❡♥ ❡♥ ❛♠❜♦s ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ❝❛❥❛✳ ❊s♦ ♣r♦❜❛rí❛ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ♥♦ ❤❛② ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛
❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s✐st❡♠át✐❝❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s s❡r✐❡s✳
▲❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ t❛r❡❛ ❡s ❧❛ ❞❡ ✐♥s♣❡❝❝✐♦♥❛r ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s✳ ❙✐ ♠✐r❛♠♦s ❝♦♥ ❛t❡♥❝✐ó♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ✈❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛s
✽ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ♠ás ❣r❛♥❞❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ s❡r✐❡ ♦❝✉rr✐❡r♦♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣❧❛❝❛ ✶✵✳ ❆❧ ✈❡r ❡st❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❧♦s ❛✉t♦r❡s ❞❡❧
tr❛❜❛❥♦ ✐♥s♣❡❝❝✐♦♥❛r♦♥ ❡st❛ ♣❧❛❝❛ ② ❞❡s❝✉❜r✐❡r♦♥ q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛❜í❛ ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ r❡s✐❞✉♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣❡❧í❝✉❧❛✱ ❧♦
q✉❡ ♦❝❛s✐♦♥ó ❡s❛s ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s t❛♥ ❣r❛♥❞❡s ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❡s♦r✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❧♦s ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛r♦♥ ❡s❛ ♣❧❛❝❛ ② t♦❞❛
❧❛ s❡r✐❡ ❡♥t❡r❛ ♣♦r r❛③♦♥❡s té❝♥✐❝❛s✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ s❡r✐❡✱ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r♦♥ t❛♠❜✐é♥ q✉❡ ❧❛s tr❡s ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ♠ás
❜❛❥❛s s❡ ❤❛❜í❛♥ ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ ✉♥ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞♦r ♠❛❧ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛❞♦✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❧❛s ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛r♦♥✳ ◆♦ s❡ ♣✉❞♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r
❝❛✉s❛ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❡①✐st❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s r❡st❛♥t❡s✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣❡r♠❛♥❡❝✐❡r♦♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s✳ P♦r
ú❧t✐♠♦✱ ♥ót❡s❡ q✉❡ ❞❡s♣✉és ❞❡ ❡st❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ❞❡♣✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛
❉❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛ ❤❛ ♠♦t✐✈❛❞♦✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥❛ ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❝❛♠♣❛♥❛✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✸✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✷✳✽✿ ❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ❝❛❥❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❡s♦r ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝❛♣❛s ❞❡ ❞✐ó①✐❞♦ ❞❡ s✐❧✐❝✐♦

✸✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

 P❛rt❡ ■■

❈á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s

✸✼
❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✸

Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❱❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ t❡♦rí❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❢♦♥❞♦ só❧♦ ❡s s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❝♦♠ú♥ r❡❞✉❝✐❞♦ ❛ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦❀ ♥♦s
❤❛❝❡ ❛♣r❡❝✐❛r ❝♦♥ ❡①❛❝t✐t✉❞ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❧❛s ♠❡♥t❡s r❛③♦♥❛❜❧❡s t♦♠❛♥ ♣♦r ✉♥ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ✐♥st✐♥t♦✱ ✐♥❝❧✉s♦
s✐♥ s❡r ❝❛♣❛❝❡s ❞❡ ❞❛rs❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛❬✳✳✳❪ ❊s s♦r♣r❡♥❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❡st❛ ❝✐❡♥❝✐❛✱ q✉❡ s✉r❣✐ó ❞❡❧ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❞❡ ❧♦s
❥✉❡❣♦s ❞❡ ❛③❛r✱ ❧❧❡❣❛r❛ ❛ s❡r ❡❧ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥♦❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❤✉♠❛♥♦❬✳✳✳❪ ▲❛s ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧❡s
❝✉❡st✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛ s♦♥✱ ❡♥ ❣r❛♥ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✱ ♠❡r♦s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳

P✐❡rr❡ ❙✐♠♦♥✱ ▼❛rq✉és ❞❡ ▲❛♣❧❛❝❡

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❊❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛ ✉♥ tr❛t❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❝✉②♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♥♦ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ♣r❡❞❡❝✐r
❝♦♥ ❝❡rt❡③❛ ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳ ❙❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛♥ ❧❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② s❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡
t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✱ q✉❡ s✉r❣❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛ ❧❛ ❛s✐❣♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ♣r❡✈✐❛✳
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝♦✱ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ s✉❝❡s♦✱ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✱ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s✳

✸✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❊♥ ♥✉❡str❛ ✈✐❞❛ ❝♦t✐❞✐❛♥❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛♠♦s ✉s✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ s✉ ❝❛❧✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡✱

❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥❞♦ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s ❛q✉❡❧❧♦s ❡✈❡♥t♦s ❡♥ ❧♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ❛❧t♦ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ s✉ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛✳
❊♥ ❡st❛ ❧í♥❡❛✱ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ✉♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡❧ ❛③❛r✳ ❚❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣❡♥s❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛③❛r
✈✐♥❝✉❧❛❞♦✱ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❥✉❡❣♦s ❞❡ ❛③❛r✱ ♣❡r♦ ❞❡s❞❡ ❡s❛ ó♣t✐❝❛ t❛♥ r❡❞✉❝✐❞❛ s❡ ♥♦s ❡s❝❛♣❛♥ ♦tr♦s
♠✉❝❤ís✐♠♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❞❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛ ❝♦t✐❞✐❛♥❛ ♦ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❛ ❞✐s❝✐♣❧✐♥❛s ❞❡ ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ❝✐❡♥❝✐❛s ❞♦♥❞❡
❡❧ ❛③❛r ❥✉❡❣❛ ✉♥ ♣❛♣❡❧ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧✳ P♦r ❝✐t❛r ❛❧❣✉♥♦s✿

➽◗✉é ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ s❛❧❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ❞í❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝❛❞❡♥❛ ❞❡ ♠♦♥t❛❥❡❄ ◆♦ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦
✜❥♦ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❛ s❡r ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✱ s✐♥♦ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛♥ ❞❛rs❡✱ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦
❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❝✐❡rt♦ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝❡rt❡③❛✳

➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣❛q✉❡t❡ ❞❡ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ s❡ tr❛♥s♠✐t❡ ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ❍❚❚P❄ ◆♦ ❡①✐st❡ ❡♥

r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ✜❥♦✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ ést❡ ❡s ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✳

✸✾
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ❞❡t❡❝t❛❞♦ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ●P❙❄ ❉✐❝❤♦ s✐st❡♠❛ ♦❜t✐❡♥❡✱ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ✉♥❛
❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡①✐st❡♥ ♠ár❣❡♥❡s ❞❡ ❡rr♦r q✉❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥ ✉♥❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣❧❛♥♦
❞♦♥❞❡ ❡❧ ♦❜❥❡t♦ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❝♦♥ ❛❧t❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳

➽◗✉é r✉✐❞♦ s❡ ❛❞❤✐❡r❡ ❛ ✉♥❛ s❡ñ❛❧ q✉❡ s❡ ❡♥✈í❛ ❞❡s❞❡ ✉♥ ❡♠✐s♦r ❛ ✉♥ r❡❝❡♣t♦r❄ ❉❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s
❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥❛❧✱ ❞✐❝❤♦ r✉✐❞♦ s❡rá ♠ás ♦ ♠❡♥♦s r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡✱ ♣❡r♦ s✉ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ♥♦ ♣♦❞rá s❡r ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛
❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✱ ② ❞❡❜❡rá s❡r ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ♣r✐♠✐t✐✈❛✱ s✐♥ q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♥♦③❝❛ ést❛✱ t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡
s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ r✉✐❞♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

❊♥ t♦❞♦s ❡st♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❡❧ ❛③❛r ❡s ✉♥ ❢❛❝t♦r ✐♥s♦s❧❛②❛❜❧❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❡❧ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡❧ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ❡♥
❡st✉❞✐♦✳

✸✳✷✳ ❊①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ② ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝♦s

❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡❧ q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡♥ t♦❞♦s s✉s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ② q✉❡✱ r❡♣❡t✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s
❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛ ❧♦s ♠✐s♠♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳
❊♥ ❝♦♥tr❛♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✱ ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝♦ ❡s ❛q✉❡❧ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❛s❡❣✉r❛♥ q✉❡
s❡ ♦❜t❡♥❣❛♥ ❧♦s ♠✐s♠♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳

▲♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❈á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❜✉s❝❛ ❡s ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡

q✉❡ s❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❥❛♠ás ✭♦ ♠✉② ❞✐❢í❝✐❧♠❡♥t❡✮ s❡ ♣♦❞rá ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐
❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡❧ ❛③❛r ❡sté ♣r❡s❡♥t❡✿ ❛ ❡st❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ❧❛
❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛r❡♠♦s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✶ ✳

✸✳✸✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞

❚❡♥❡♠♦s✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ q✉❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ❧❛ ❛s✐❣♥❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡♠♦s ❞❡❧ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s s♦❜r❡
❧❛ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❛❧❣♦✳ ❊st❛ ❛s✐❣♥❛❝✐ó♥✱ s✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❝♦❤❡r❡♥t❡✳ ❊st❛ ♥❡❝❡s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❛s✐❣♥❡♠♦s
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ s❡ ✈❛ ❛ ♣❧❛s♠❛r ❡♥ ❡st❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ tr❡s r❡❣❧❛s✱ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛s ❝♦♠♦ ❛①✐♦♠❛s✱ q✉❡
❞❡❜❡ ❝✉♠♣❧✐r ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r r❡♣❛rt♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✳

✸✳✸✳✶✳ ➪❧❣❡❜r❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s

❙✐ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛r ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦
❝♦♠♦ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s✳ ❊s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡rés✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ r❡♣❛s❛r ❧♦s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦s ② ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❜ás✐❝❛s ❞❡❧ á❧❣❡❜r❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s✳

❊♥ t♦❞♦ ❡st❡ ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♦❧✈✐❞❛r q✉❡ ❧♦s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥ ❡♥ ♥✉❡str♦ ❝❛s♦ ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s
❞❡ ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

❯♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s✳

❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ B ❡s ✉♥ s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ A s✐ t♦❞♦s s✉s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❧♦ s♦♥ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❞❡ A✱ ② s❡ ♥♦t❛rá B ⊂ A✳

✶ ❊s ♠❡❥♦r q✉❡ ❛❝❡♣t❡♠♦s ❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♥♦ ❡s ❧❛ ❝✐❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❞✐✈✐♥❛❝✐ó♥✿ t❛♥ só❧♦ s❡ ♦❝✉♣❛ ❞❡
❝✉❛♥t✐✜❝❛r ❝ó♠♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❝✐❡rt♦ ❡s ✉♥ ❡✈❡♥t♦ ②✱ ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡r ❡str❛t❡❣✐❛s ❞❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ ❜❛s❛❞❛s ❡♥ ❞✐❝❤❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡
❧❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡✳

✹✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

P❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ A s❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛ ∅ ⊂ A ⊂ A ⊂ Ω.

❙✐ C ⊂ B ② B ⊂ A✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ C ⊂ A. ❊st♦ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ tr❛♥s✐t✐✈❛✳

▲❛ ✉♥✐ó♥ ❞❡ B ② A ❡s ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❝✉②♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s s♦♥ ❧♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ A ② B ✱ ② s❡ ♥♦t❛ A ∪ B ✳ ❊st❛

♦♣❡r❛❝✐ó♥ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❝♦♥♠✉t❛t✐✈❛ ② ❛s♦❝✐❛t✐✈❛✳

❙✐ A ⊂ B ✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s A ∪ B = B.

▲❛ ✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ A ② B ❡s ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❧♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❝♦♠✉♥❡s ❞❡ A ② B ✱ ② s❡ ♥♦t❛ AB ♦

A ∩ B. ❊st❛ ♦♣❡r❛❝✐ó♥ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❝♦♥♠✉t❛t✐✈❛✱ ❛s♦❝✐❛t✐✈❛ ② ❞✐str✐❜✉t✐✈❛ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✉♥✐ó♥✳
❉♦s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s✱ A ② B ✱ s❡ ❞✐❝❡♥ ♠✉t✉❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡①❝❧✉②❡♥t❡s✱ ❞✐s❥✉♥t♦s ♦ ✐♥❝♦♠♣❛t✐❜❧❡s s✐ s✉ ✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐ó♥
❡s ✈❛❝í❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ A ∩ B = ∅.

❙✐ ❞♦s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s A ② B s♦♥ ❞✐s❥✉♥t♦s✱ s✉ ✉♥✐ó♥ s✉❡❧❡ ♥♦t❛rs❡ A + B ✳

▲♦s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s A1 , ..., AN s❡ ❞✐❝❡♥ ♠✉t✉❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡①❝❧✉②❡♥t❡s s✐ Ai ∩ Aj = ∅ ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ i 6= j.

❯♥❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐ó♥ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s✱ A1 , ..., AN t❛❧ q✉❡✿
❛✮ A1 ∪ ... ∪ AN = Ω
❜✮ Ai ∩ Aj = ∅ ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ i 6= j.
❊❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❝♦♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛r✐♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ A✱ Ā ó Ac ✱ ❡stá ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ Ω q✉❡
♥♦ ♣❡rt❡♥❡❝❡♥ ❛ A✳

❙❡ s✐❣✉❡ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱

A ∪ Ā = Ω
A ∩ Ā = ∅
c
(Ac ) = A
Ω̄ = ∅
Si B ⊂ A → Ā ⊂ B̄
Si A = B → Ā = B̄.

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ♠❡♥❝✐♦♥❡♠♦s ❧❛s ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s ▲❡②❡s ❞❡ ▼♦r❣❛♥✿

A ∪ B = Ā ∩ B̄

A ∩ B = Ā ∪ B̄.

✸✳✸✳✷✳ ❊s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧

❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✹✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ r❡❝✐❜❡ ❡❧ ♥♦♠❜r❡ ❞❡ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦
♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ② ❧♦ ♥♦t❛r❡♠♦s ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♠♦ Ω.

❈✉❛❧q✉✐❡r s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ r❡❝✐❜❡ ❡❧ ♥♦♠❜r❡ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦ ♦ ❡✈❡♥t♦✳

❍❛❜❧❛r❡♠♦s ❞❡ ❡♥s❛②♦ ♦ r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ r❡✜r✐é♥❞♦♥♦s ❛ ✉♥❛ ❡❥❡❝✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦
❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✳ ❆sí✱ ❞✐r❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❡♥s❛②♦ ♦❝✉rr❡ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ A s✐ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛ ❡♥ ❞✐❝❤♦ ❡♥s❛②♦ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r
r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ✐♥❝❧✉✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ s✉❝❡s♦ A✳
❯♥❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❡s q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ♣♦r q✉é s❡r ú♥✐❝♦✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡rá ❞❡ ❧♦
q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❡♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛r ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ♣♦♥❡r ❡st❡ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ ❡♥ ❧♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s
❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✐ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ❡❧ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞❛❞♦✱ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s❡rí❛ Ω❂④✶✱✷✱✸✱✹✱✺✱✻⑥✳

▲♦s s✉❝❡s♦s ♠ás ❡❧❡♠❡♥t❛❧❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s s♦♥ ④✶⑥✱ ④✷⑥✱ ④✸⑥✱ ④✹⑥✱ ④✺⑥ ② ④✻⑥✳ ❖tr♦s s✉❝❡s♦s ♥♦ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t❛❧❡s
♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r ④✶✱✷⑥✱ ④♠❛②♦r q✉❡ ✷⑥✱ ④♣❛r⑥✱ ✳✳✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ❧❛♥③❛♥❞♦ ✉♥ ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛ ❛ ♠❛♥♦✱ ②
só❧♦ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ✈❡r s✐ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❡s ♣❛r ♦ ✐♠♣❛r✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s❡rí❛ Ω = {par, impar}✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ❡♥ ❇✐♦❧♦❣í❛ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❡♥ ❡①tr❛❡r✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♣❡❝❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ rí♦✱ ❤❛st❛
❞❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♣❡③ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡s❡❛ ❡st✉❞✐❛r✳ ❊❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣❡❝❡s q✉❡ ❤❛❜rí❛ q✉❡ ❡①tr❛❡r ❤❛st❛
❝♦♥s❡❣✉✐r ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧❛r ❞❡s❡❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ ❡♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❢♦r♠❛rí❛ ❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ Ω = {1, 2, 3, ...}✱ s✐ ❡s
q✉❡ ❡❧ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r ❞❡s❡❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛r ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣❡❝❡s ❤❛st❛ ❡①tr❛❡r ❡s❡ ❡❥❡♠♣❧❛r ❞❡s❡❛❞♦✳
❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ♥♦ ❛❝♦t❛❞♦✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡✳
❈♦♠♦ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s s✉❝❡s♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡rés ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ♣♦♥❡r ❧♦s ❡✈❡♥t♦s ④✶✱✷✱✸✱✹✱✺⑥✱ ④♠❛②♦r ♦ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❛
✺⑥✱✳✳✳
❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s ❛❤♦r❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r só❧♦ ❡stá ✐♥t❡r❡s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r s✐ ❤❛❝❡♥ ❢❛❧t❛ ♠ás ❞❡ ✺ ❡①✲
tr❛❝❝✐♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧❛r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ ❡♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s❡rí❛
Ω = {> 5, ≤ 5}✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✐ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❡❧❡❣✐r ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧

❛③❛r ❡♥tr❡ ✵ ② ✶✱ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s❡rí❛ Ω = [0, 1]✳ ❆ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s✱ ❡st❡ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦
♠✉❡str❛❧ ♥♦ ❡s ✜♥✐t♦✱ ♥✐ s✐q✉✐❡r❛ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡✳
❈♦♠♦ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡st❛❝❛r✱ ❡♥tr❡ ♦tr♦s✱ ④♠❡♥♦r q✉❡
✵✳✺⑥ ✱ ④♠❛②♦r q✉❡ ✵✳✷✺⑥✱ ④♠❡♥♦r q✉❡ ✵✳✼✺⑥ ✱✳✳✳
❖tr♦ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ♣♦❞rí❛ s❡r ♦❜s❡r✈❛r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❝✐♠❛❧ ♠❛②♦r ♠ás ❝❡r❝❛♥♦✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ s❛❧❡ ✵✳✷✺✱
♠❡ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛ ✵✳✸✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦ ❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s❡rí❛ Ω = 0.1, 0.2, ...1✳ ❊st❡ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s❡r✈✐rí❛✱
♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♣❛r❛ s♦rt❡❛r ♥ú♠❡r♦s ❡♥tr❡ ✶ ② 10✱ s✐♥ ♠ás q✉❡ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ♦❜t❡♥✐❞♦ ♣♦r ✶✵✳

✹✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊♥ ❡st♦s ú❧t✐♠♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r q✉❡ ❤❛② ❞♦s ❣r❛♥❞❡s t✐♣♦s ❞❡ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s s❡❣ú♥ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡
s✉❝❡s♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t❛❧❡s✳

❯♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s❡ ❞✐❝❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦ s✐ ❡stá ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ✜♥✐t♦ ♦ ✐♥✜♥✐t♦ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s
❡❧❡♠❡♥t❛❧❡s✳
P♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s❡ ❞✐❝❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦ s✐ ❡stá ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ♥♦ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡ ❞❡
s✉❝❡s♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t❛❧❡s✳

✸✳✸✳✸✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞

❉❛❞♦ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ Ω ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❛ ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞

♣❛r❛ ❡s❡ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡s ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❛s✐❣♥❡ ❛ ❝❛❞❛ s✉❝❡s♦ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ [0, 1] ② q✉❡
✈❡r✐✜q✉❡
P [A] ≥ 0, ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❡✈❡♥t♦ A.
P [Ω] = 1.
❉❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s A1 , A2 , ..., An ♠✉t✉❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡①❝❧✉②❡♥t❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ t❛❧❡s q✉❡ Ai ∩ Aj = ∅ ♣❛r❛
t♦❞♦ i 6= j,
n
X
P [∪ni=1 Ai ] = P [Ai ] .
i=1

◆♦t❛✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ ♥♦t❛r q✉❡ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞❛r ♠ás ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦
♠✉❡str❛❧✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ Ω = {cara, cruz}, ❞❡❧ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛✱
♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❞❛rs❡ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ✐♥✜♥✐t♦ ♥♦ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❀ ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s
❛ ❝❛❞❛ ❡❧❡❝❝✐ó♥

P [cara] = p
P [cruz] = 1 − p,

♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ p ∈ [0, 1] . ❆✉♥q✉❡ s✐ ❧❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛ ♥♦ ❡stá ❝❛r❣❛❞❛✱ ❝♦♠♦ s✉❝❡❞❡ ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ ❡❧
❝❛s♦ ❡♥ q✉❡ p = 12 .

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❱♦❧✈✐❡♥❞♦ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡❧ ❞❛❞♦✱ s✐ ést❡ ♥♦ ❡stá ❝❛r❣❛❞♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡✜♥✐r ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡
❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✿
1
P [{i}] = , i = 1, 2, ..., 6.
6

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✹✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✸✳✶✿ ❈✐r❝✉✐t♦

❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s✱ ❛ s✉ ✈❡③✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱

P ({par}) = P [{2, 4, 6}]

= P [{2}] + P [{4}] + P [{6}]
1 1 1
= + + = 0.5.
6 6 6

❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ s❡ ❤❛ t❡♥✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❧❛ t❡r❝❡r❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❛①✐♦♠át✐❝❛✳

❈♦♠♦ ❝♦♥s❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ s❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛♥✱ ❡♥tr❡ ♦tr❛s✱ ❧❛s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s✱ q✉❡ ❛❞❡♠ás ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛♥
❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❧♦s ❝á❧❝✉❧♦s✿

P [∅] = 0.

❙❡❛ A ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ P Ā = 1 − P [A] .

 

❙❡❛♥ A ② B ❞♦s s✉❝❡s♦s ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ P A ∩ B̄ = P [A] − P [A ∩ B] .

 

❙❡❛♥ A ② B ❞♦s s✉❝❡s♦s ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ P [A ∪ B] = P [A] + P [B] − P [A ∩ B] .

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊❧ ❝✐r❝✉✐t♦ q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✸✳✶ ❡stá ❝♦♥st✐t✉✐❞♦ ♣♦r ❞♦s ✐♥t❡rr✉♣t♦r❡s ✭s✇✐t❝❤❡s ✮ ❡♥
♣❛r❛❧❡❧♦✳ ▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❡sté ❝❡rr❛❞♦ ❡s ❞❡ 21 ✳
P❛r❛ q✉❡ ♣❛s❡ ❝♦rr✐❡♥t❡ ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡❧ ❝✐r❝✉✐t♦ ❜❛st❛ ❝♦♥ q✉❡ ♣❛s❡ ❝♦rr✐❡♥t❡ ♣♦r ❛❧❣✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞♦s ✐♥t❡rr✉♣✲
t♦r❡s✱ ❡st♦ ❡s✱ q✉❡ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❡sté ❝❡rr❛❞♦✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ s✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ♣♦r ❊ ❛❧ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ♣❛s❡
❝♦rr✐❡♥t❡ ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡❧ ❝✐r❝✉✐t♦ ② ❊i ❛❧ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡rr✉♣t♦r i ❡sté ❝❡rr❛❞♦✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s✱

P [E] = P [E1 ∪ E2 ] = P [E1 ] + P [E2 ] − P [E1 ∩ E2 ]

1 1
= + − P [E1 ∩ E2 ] ≤ 1.
2 2

P❛r❛ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❡st❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❡①❛❝t❛ ♥❡❝❡s✐t❛♠♦s s❛❜❡r ❝ó♠♦ ❛❝tú❛♥ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❛♠❜♦s
❝✐r❝✉✐t♦s✳

✹✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

◆➸ ❞❡ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦s ✶✵ ✶✵✵ ✷✺✵ ✺✵✵ ✼✺✵ ✶✵✵✵

◆➸ ❞❡ ❝❛r❛s ✹ ✹✻ ✶✷✹ ✷✹✹ ✸✼✾ ✺✵✶
N. de caras
N. de lanzamientos ✵✳✹ ✵✳✹✻ ✵✳✹✾✻ ✵✳✹✽✽ ✵✳✺✵✺✸ ✵✳✺✵✶
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✸✳✶✿ ❆♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t✐st❛ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝❛r❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛✳

✸✳✹✳ ■♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t✐st❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞

▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ♠ás ❝♦♠ú♥ ❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ ✈❡r ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦s ❞❡ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡
❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥✳
P❡♥s❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛✿ s✐ ❞❡❝✐♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝❛r❛ ❡s ✵✳✺✱ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡♠♦s q✉❡
s✐ ❧❛♥③❛♠♦s ❧❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛ ✉♥ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s ② ❛♥♦t❛♠♦s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❝❛r❛s✱ ést❛s s❡rá♥ ♠ás ♦ ♠❡♥♦s ❧❛
♠✐t❛❞✳
●❡♥❡r❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡st❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡✈❡♥t♦ A✱ P [A] , ❡s
nA
P [A] = lı́m ,
n→∞ n

❞♦♥❞❡ nA ❡s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ A ❡♥ n ❡♥s❛②♦s ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✳

❊st❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t✐st❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ❝❛rá❝t❡r ❡♠✐♥❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ♣rá❝t✐❝♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ✉♥❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❢ís✐❝❛ ❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱
♣❡r♦ s❡ ✈❡ ❧✐♠✐t❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❧❛s ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ s✉♣♦♥❡ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ tér♠✐♥♦s ❞❡ ✉♥ ❧í♠✐t❡ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ t❛❧✱
só❧♦ s❡ ❛❧❝❛♥③❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥✜♥✐t♦✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ ❞❡s❞❡ ✉♥ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ r❡❛❧✐st❛✱ ➽❡♥ q✉é ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s r❡♣❡t✐r
❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ✉♥ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s❄
❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡ ❤❛♥ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦ ✶✵✵✵ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✸✳✶ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ✉♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡ ❡s❡
♣r♦❝❡s♦✳ P✉❡❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r ❡s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦s✱ ♠ás s❡ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛
r❡❧❛t✐✈❛ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r 21 ✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝❛r❛ ❡s ✐❣✉❛❧ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ❝r✉③ ❡ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s ❛♠❜❛s ❛ 12 ✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ❡st♦ só❧♦ ❡s ✉♥❛ s✉♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✱ ♦ ✉♥❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛r
❡str✐❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t✐st❛ ❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛r ❤❛st❛ ❡❧ ✐♥✜♥✐t♦✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ r❡s✉❧t❛ ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡✳

❊st❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t✐st❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❧❧❛♠❛r ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡✲
r❛❞❛s✳ ❙✐ ✉♥ ❡✈❡♥t♦ A t✐❡♥❡ ❛s✐❣♥❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ P [A]✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ s✐ r❡♣❡t✐♠♦s ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦
n ✈❡❝❡s✱ ❧♦ ♠ás ❡s♣❡r❛❜❧❡ ❡s q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡ ❡❧ ❡✈❡♥t♦ A s❡rá n × P [A] . ▼ás ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡
♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ♠❛t✐③❛r ❝♦♥ ♠ás r✐❣♦r ❛ q✉é ♥♦s r❡❢❡r✐♠♦s ❝♦♥ ❧♦ ♠ás ❡s♣❡r❛❜❧❡✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✐❣✉✐❡♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛✱ s✐ ❧❛ ❧❛♥③❛♠♦s ✸✹✽ ✈❡❝❡s✱ ❧♦ ❡s♣❡r❛❜❧❡ ❡s q✉❡ s❛❧❣❛♥
❛❧r❡❞❡❞♦r ❞❡ 348 × 0.5 = 174 ❝❛r❛s✳

✸✳✺✳ ■♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ s✉❜❥❡t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞

❙✐ ♥♦s ❞✐❝❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❧✉❡✈❛ ♠❛ñ❛♥❛ ❡s ❞❡❧ ✸✺ ✪✱ ➽❝ó♠♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛r ❡s♦ ❡♥ tér♠✐♥♦s
❢r❡❝✉❡♥t✐st❛s❄ ◆♦ t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ♣❡♥s❛r ❡♥ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡♣❡t✐r ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞í❛ ❞❡ ♠❛ñ❛♥❛ ♠✉❝❤❛s ✈❡❝❡s ②
❝♦♥t❛r ❝✉á♥t❛s ✈❡❝❡s ❧❧✉❡✈❡✳ ➽P♦❞rí❛♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r s✐ ❤✉❜✐❡r❛ ♠✉❝❤♦s ❞í❛s ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ❞❡ ♠❛ñ❛♥❛✱ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡
❧❧♦✈❡rí❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✸✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❄ P❡r♦ ❡s♦ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡❧ ❞í❛ ❞❡ ♠❛ñ❛♥❛ ❡s ú♥✐❝♦✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✹✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ s✉❜❥❡t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ ✈❡r ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✈✐♥❝✉❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❣r❛❞♦
❞❡ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s s♦❜r❡ ❧❛s ❝♦s❛s✳ ❙✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦
❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❡s ✐♥❝✐❡rt♦✳ ▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❡s ❡❧ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ q✉❡ ②♦ t❡♥❣♦
❡♥ ❧❛ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳ ❊s❡ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ ❡s ♣❡rs♦♥❛❧✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ ❡s s✉❜❥❡t✐✈♦✱ ♣❡r♦ ❧ó❣✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱
❞❡❜❡rá ❡st❛r ❛❝♦r❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✳

✸✳✻✳ ❊s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❝♦♥ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❡q✉✐♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s✳ ❋ór♠✉❧❛ ❞❡ ▲❛✲

♣❧❛❝❡

❖tr♦ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ❛❜♦r❞❛r ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ❛s✐❣♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ s✉❝❡s♦s ❡s ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿
❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛✱ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ s♦♥ ❞♦s ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s✱ ② ♥♦ ❤❛② r❛③♦♥❡s
♣❛r❛ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❡s ♠ás ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ♦tr♦✱ ❛sí q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ❝❛r❛ ② ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝r✉③ s♦♥ ❛♠❜❛s ❞❡❧ ✺✵ ✪✳
❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ s✐ ❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡stá ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r N r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ② t♦❞♦s ❡❧❧♦s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✭❡q✉✐♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s✮✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡✈❡♥t♦ A, P [A] , ❡s

NA
P [A] = ,
N

❞♦♥❞❡ NA ❡s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❢❛✈♦r❛❜❧❡s ❛ ❧❛ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ A.

❊st❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛✱ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ ❞❡ ▲❛♣❧❛❝❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♥♦s
♣❡r♠✐t❡ ❞❡❞✉❝✐r q✉❡
1
P [cara] =
2
❡♥ ❡❧ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛ s✐♥ t❡♥❡r q✉❡ ❧❛♥③❛r ❧❛ ♠♦♥❡❞❛ ✉♥ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ t✐❡♥❡ ❞♦s ❣r❛♥❞❡s ✐♥❝♦♥✈❡♥✐❡♥t❡s✿ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s✱ N ✱ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡
s❡r ✜♥✐t♦ ②✱ ❛❞❡♠ás✱ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❞❡❜❡♥ t❡♥❡r ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✭❝♦♥ ❧♦ ❝✉❛❧✱ ❧♦ ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦
q✉❡❞❛ ✐♠♣❧í❝✐t❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥♠❡rs♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥✮✳

✸✳✼✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✳ ■♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s

P❛r❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐r ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ✐♥t✉✐t✐✈❛ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛✲
❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♠♦ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s✳
P❡♥s❡♠♦s ❡♥ ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ② ❡♥ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✱ A✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱
t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ P [A] ; ♣❡r♦ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡♠♦s ❛❧❣♦ ❞❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦❀
❝♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❤❛ ♦❝✉rr✐❞♦ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ B ✳ P❛r❡❝❡ ❧ó❣✐❝♦ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❡s❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛
s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡❧ ❡♥s❛②♦ ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛rá ♥✉❡str♦ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ A✿ ❧❧❛♠❡♠♦s ❛ ❡st❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡
❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ P [A | B]✱ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ A ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ B ♦ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ A ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛ B ✳
❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❡❧ s✉❝❡s♦ A : ❡❧ ❞í❛ ❞❡ ❤♦② ✈❛ ❛ ❧❧♦✈❡r ② ❡❧ s✉❝❡s♦ B : ❡❧ ❞í❛ ❞❡ ❤♦② ❡stá ♥✉❜❧❛❞♦✳
❖❜✈✐❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ P [A] s❡rá ♠❡♥♦r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ P [A | B] , ②❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡sté
♥✉❜❧❛❞♦ r❡❢✉❡r③❛ ♥✉❡str❛ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❧✉❡✈❛✳

✹✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❞❡ ❡①tr❛❡r ✉♥❛ ❝❛rt❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❜❛r❛❥❛ ❡s♣❛ñ♦❧❛✳ ❙❡❛ ❡❧ s✉❝❡s♦

A: ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ s♦t❛✱ ❡❧ s✉❝❡s♦ B1 : ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ ✜❣✉r❛ ② ❡❧ s✉❝❡s♦ B2 : ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ ❝❛rt❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♣❛s✳

▲❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✱ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ♦ ♥♦✱ ❜❛❥♦ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❝❧ás✐❝❛✱ s♦♥ ❧❛s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s✿

4 sotas 1
P [A] = =
40 cartas 10
4 sotas 1
P [A | B1 ] = =
12 f iguras 3
1 sota de copas 1
P [A | B2 ] = = .
10 copas 10

❈♦♠♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✈❡rs❡✱ B1 ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ❛sí B2 ✳ P✉❡❞❡ ❞❡❝✐rs❡ q✉❡ B2 ♥♦ ♦❢r❡❝❡

✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ A✱ ♦ q✉❡ A ② B2 s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❛r ❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥ ✉♥❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ q✉❡ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❛ ❡st❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❞❡

r❡❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❡①✐st❡♥t❡✳

▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ A✱ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ♦tr♦ s✉❝❡s♦ B✱ ❞❡♥♦t❛❞❛ ♣♦r P [A | B]✱ s❡

❞❡✜♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡

P [A ∩ B]
P [A | B] = ,
P [B]
s✐❡♠♣r❡ q✉❡ P [B] 6= 0.

❯♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ P [➲/B ] ❡s ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ t♦❞❛ r❡❣❧❛✿ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱

❝✉♠♣❧❡ ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s q✉❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✏s✐♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛r✑✳

❈♦♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦✱ ❧❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❡s ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❞❛ ✉♥

s✉❝❡s♦ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♦tr♦ s✉❝❡s♦✳ P❡r♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ②❛ ❤❡♠♦s ♣✉❡st♦ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱

♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ❞❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ ♦tr♦✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ❛♠❜♦s s✉❝❡s♦s s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

P♦r t❛♥t♦✿

❉♦s s✉❝❡s♦s A ② B s❡ ❞✐❝❡♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s✐ P [A | B] = P [A] , ♦ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ s✐ P [B | A] = P [B]✱ ♦

❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ s✐ P [A ∩ B] = P [A] × P [B] .

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥t✐♥✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ✸✳✸✳✸✱ ❧♦ ♠ás ❧ó❣✐❝♦ ❡s ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞♦s ✐♥t❡rr✉♣t♦r❡s ❛❝tú❛♥

❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ P [E1 ∩ E2 ] = P [E1 ] P [E2 ] ② t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡✱

1 1
P [E] = + − P [E1 ∩ E1 ]
2 2
1 1 11 3
= + − = .
2 2 22 4

◆♦t❛✳ ❊s ♠✉② ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♥♦ ❝♦♥❢✉♥❞✐r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ❛ ♦tr♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐✲

❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛♠❜♦s s✉❝❡s♦s✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✸✳✷ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✈❡rs❡ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s

❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s s✉❝❡s♦s ② ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ s✉ ✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐ó♥✳ ❊♥ tér♠✐♥♦s ❝♦❧♦q✉✐❛❧❡s✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✹✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❡st❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❡♥tr❡ ✉♥❛ ♣❛rt❡ ② ✉♥ t♦❞♦✳ ❈✉❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s
❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❡s❡ t♦❞♦ ❡s ❡❧ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✳ ❈✉❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♥♦ ❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✱ ❡s❡ t♦❞♦
❡s t♦❞♦ ❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳ ❊♥ ❛♠❜♦s ❝❛s♦s ❡s❛ ♣❛rt❡ ❡s ❧❛ ✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐ó♥✳

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✸✳✷✿ ❊sq✉❡♠❛ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❚❛♠❜✐é♥ s✉❡❧❡ s❡r ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❝♦♠ú♥ ❧❛ ❝♦♥❢✉s✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ s✉❝❡s♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ② s✉❝❡s♦s ✐♥❝♦♠♣❛✲
t✐❜❧❡s ♦ ♠✉t✉❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡①❝❧✉②❡♥t❡s✳
❊♥ ❡st❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ r❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❞♦s s✉❝❡s♦s A ② B s♦♥ ✐♥❝♦♠♣❛t✐❜❧❡s ♦ ♠✉t✉❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡①❝❧✉②❡♥t❡s s✐
A ∩ B = ∅, ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ P [A ∩ B] = 0✳
P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ A ② B s❡rá♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s✐ P [A ∩ B] = P [A] P [B]✳
▲❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❛♠❜♦s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦s s♦♥ ♦❜✈✐❛s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ♥♦ s❡❛ ❡❧❛❜♦r❛❞♦ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❡s ✵✳✵✺✳ ❙❡ s♦❧✐❝✐t❛♥ tr❡s ♣❡❞✐❞♦s
❞❡❧ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡ s❡♣❛r❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❝♦♠♦ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r❧♦s ❡✈❡♥t♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

✶✳ ➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣❡❞✐❞♦s s❡ ❡♥✈í❡♥ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦❄

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♥♦t❡♠♦s Ei ❛❧ s✉❝❡s♦ ❡♥✈✐❛r ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❡❧ ♣❡❞✐❞♦ ✐✲és✐♠♦✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡
P [Ei ] = 0.95.
P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡♥

P [E1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3 ] = P [E1 ] P [E2 ] P [E3 ] = 0.953 ,

❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣❡❞✐❞♦s s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

✷✳ ➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥ ♣❡❞✐❞♦ ♥♦ s❡ ❡♥✈í❡ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦❄

✹✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ ❡❧ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡♥ ❡s ♠ás ❝♦♠♣❧❡❥♦✿

 
P Ē1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3 ∪ E1 ∩ Ē2 ∩ E3 ∪ E1 ∩ E2 ∩ Ē3

     
= P Ē1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3 + P E1 ∩ Ē2 ∩ E3 + P E1 ∩ E2 ∩ Ē3

= 0.05 × 0.952 + 0.05 × 0.952 + 0.05 × 0.952 = 0.135,

❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❤❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s Ē1 ∩ E2 ∩ E3 , E1 ∩ Ē2 ∩ E3 ② E1 ∩ E2 ∩ Ē3 s♦♥ ✐♥❝♦♠♣❛t✐❜❧❡s✳

✸✳ ➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❞♦s ♦ ♠ás ♣❡❞✐❞♦s ♥♦ s❡ ❡♥✈í❡♥ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦❄

❚❡♥❣❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ②❛ ❤❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛❞♦ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ t♦❞♦s s❡ ❡♥✈í❡♥ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦ ② ❞❡
q✉❡ t♦❞♦s ♠❡♥♦s ✉♥♦ s❡ ❡♥✈í❡♥ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱

P [❞♦s ♦ ♠ás ♣❡❞✐❞♦s ♥♦ s❡ ❡♥✈í❡♥ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦]

= 1 − P [t♦❞♦s s❡ ❡♥✈í❡♥ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦ ∪ ✉♥ ♣❡❞✐❞♦ ♥♦ s❡ ❡♥✈í❡ ❛ t✐❡♠♣♦]

= 1 − (0.953 + 0.135).

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ q✉❡ s❡ ❡sq✉❡♠❛t✐③❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✸✳✸✳ ❊♥ ❞✐❝❤♦
❡sq✉❡♠❛ s❡ ♣♦♥❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ s❡rá ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥ é①✐t♦ s✐ ♣❛s❛ ❡♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r ✉♥
❝❤❡q✉❡♦ ♣r❡✈✐♦ ✭❆✮❀ ❞❡s♣✉és ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ♠♦♥t❛❞❛ ❞✐r❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ✭❇✮✱ r❡❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛❞❛ ✭❈✮ ② ❞❡s♣✉és ♠♦♥t❛❞❛
✭❉✮ ♦ ❛❞❛♣t❛❞❛ ✭❊✮ ② ❞❡s♣✉és ♠♦♥t❛❞❛ ✭❋✮❀ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ♣✐♥t❛❞❛ ✭●✮ ② ✜♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡♠❜❛❧❛❞❛
✭❍✮✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ♣❛s❛r ❡①✐t♦s❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝❛❞❛ s✉❜♣r♦❝❡s♦ s♦♥ t♦❞❛s ❡❧❧❛s ✐❣✉❛❧❡s
❛ ✵✳✾✺✱ ② q✉❡ ❧♦s s✉❜♣r♦❝❡s♦s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧✉❣❛r ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❡ ♦tr♦s✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡♥
❡s❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ s❡❛ ❡①✐t♦s❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞❛✳
❙✐ ♥♦s ❞❛♠♦s ❝✉❡♥t❛✱ ❆✱ ● ② ❍ s♦♥ ✐♥❡❧✉❞✐❜❧❡s✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞❛ s✐ ♣❛s❛
♣♦r ❇✱ ♣♦r ❈ ② ❉ ♦ ♣♦r ❊ ② ❋✳ ❊♥ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s✱ ❧❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ s❡rá ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞❛ s✐ s❡ ❞❛

A ∩ (B ∪ C ∩ D ∪ E ∩ F ) ∩ G ∩ H.

❈♦♠♦ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ✉♥♦s ❞❡ ♦tr♦s✱ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❝♦♥ ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❧❛s
✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ♣❡r♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✉♥✐ó♥ ❞❡ tr❡s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s✱ B∪C ∩D∪E∩F ✳
❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱

P [A1 ∪ A2 ∪ A3 ] = P [(A1 ∪ A2 ) ∪ A3 ] = P [A1 ∪ A2 ] + P [A3 ] − P [(A1 ∪ A2 ) ∩ A3 ]

= P [A1 ] + P [A2 ] − P [A1 ∩ A2 ] + P [A3 ] − P [A1 ∩ A3 ∪ A2 ∩ A3 ]

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✹✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

= P [A1 ] + P [A2 ] − P [A1 ∩ A2 ] + P [A3 ]

− (P [A1 ∩ A3 ] + P [A2 ∩ A3 ] − P [A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ])

= P [A1 ] + P [A2 ] + P [A3 ]

− P [A1 ∩ A2 ] − P [A1 ∩ A3 ] − P [A2 ∩ A3 ]
+ P [A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ]

❊♥ ♥✉❡str♦ ❝❛s♦✱

P [B ∪ C ∩ D ∪ E ∩ F ] = P [B] + P [C ∩ D] + P [E ∩ F ]
− P [B ∩ C ∩ D] − P [B ∩ E ∩ F ] − P [C ∩ D ∩ E ∩ F ]
+ P [B ∩ C ∩ D ∩ E ∩ F ]
= 0.95 + 2 × 0.952 − 2×0.953 − 0.954 + 0.955
= 0.9995247

❨❛ ❡st❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ q✉❡ s❡ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡✿

P [A ∩ (B ∪ C ∩ D ∪ E ∩ F ) ∩ G ∩ H] = P [A] P [B ∪ C ∩ D ∪ E ∩ F ] P [G] P [H]

= 0.95 × (0.9995247) × 0.95 × 0.95
= 0.8569675.

❊♥ ❡st♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s✱ ❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐♦♥❡s ❤❛ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ tr✐✈✐❛❧ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s s♦♥
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ ❙♦♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡st♦ ♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ♦❝✉rr❡✳ ➽❈ó♠♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s✱ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞♦s ♦ ♠ás s✉❝❡s♦s ♥♦ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s❄

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ só❧♦ ❞♦s s✉❝❡s♦s✱ A ② B ✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❞✉❝✐r q✉❡

P [A ∩ B] = P [A|B] × P [B]

❞✐r❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✳ ❆ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛✱ ♣♦r ✐♥❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✱ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡
♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦✱ q✉❡ s❡ ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ❢♦r♠❛✿ s✐ A1 , A2 , ..., An s♦♥ s✉❝❡s♦s ❞❡
✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ♥♦ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ s❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛

P [A1 ∩ A2 ∩ ... ∩ An ] = P [A1 ]P [A2 |A1 ]...P [An |A1 ∩ A2 ∩ ... ∩ An−1 ]

✺✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✸✳✸✿ ❊sq✉❡♠❛ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧ ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ❧♦t❡ ❞❡ ✺✵ ❛r❛♥❞❡❧❛s ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ✸✵ ❛r❛♥❞❡❧❛s ❝✉②♦ ❣r♦s♦r ❡①❝❡❞❡ ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐s❡ñ♦✳
❙✉♣♦♥❣❛ q✉❡ s❡ s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛♥ ✸ ❛r❛♥❞❡❧❛s ❛❧ ❛③❛r ② s✐♥ r❡❡♠♣❧❛③♦ ❞❡❧ ❧♦t❡✳

✶✳ ➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛s tr❡s ❛r❛♥❞❡❧❛s s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s s❡❛♥ ♠ás ❣r✉❡s❛s q✉❡ ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜✲
❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐s❡ñ♦❄
❈♦♠❡♥③❛♠♦s ♥♦t❛♥❞♦ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s Ai ✿ ❧❛ í✲és✐♠❛ ❛r❛♥❞❡❧❛ ❡①tr❛✐❞❛ ❡s ♠ás ❣r✉❡s❛ q✉❡ ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜✲
❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐s❡ñ♦, i = 1, 2, 3✳
❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡♥

P [A1 ∩ A2 ∩ A3 ] = P [A1 ] P [A2 /A1 ] P [A3 /A1 ∩A2 ]

30 29 28
= .
50 49 48

✷✳ ➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ t❡r❝❡r❛ ❛r❛♥❞❡❧❛ s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ s❡❛ ♠ás ❣r✉❡s❛ q✉❡ ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛✲
❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐s❡ñ♦ s✐ ❧❛s ❞♦s ♣r✐♠❡r❛s ❢✉❡r♦♥ ♠ás ❞❡❧❣❛❞❛s q✉❡ ❧❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥❄
  30
P A3 /Ā1 ∩Ā2 = .
48

✸✳✽✳ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t♦t❛❧ ② ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s

▲♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ❞♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡♥ ❝♦♠♦ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t♦t❛❧ ② ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s
r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ② ❥✉❡❣❛♥ ✉♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♣❛♣❡❧ ❛ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✳ ▲♦s ❞♦s ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥ ❝♦♠♦

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✺✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❤❡rr❛♠✐❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✳

❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❚♦t❛❧ ✳ ❙❡❛ P ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳ ❙❡❛
{A1 , ..., AN } ⊂ F ✉♥❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ Ω ② s❡❛ B ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱

P [B] = P [B | A1 ] P [A1 ] + ... + P [B | AN ] P [AN ] .

❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s ✳ ❊♥ ❡s❛s ♠✐s♠❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s✱ s✐ P [B] 6= 0✱

P [B | Ai ] P [Ai ]
P [Ai | B] = .
P [B | A1 ] P [A1 ] + ... + P [B | AN ] P [AN ]

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✹ ❝❛❥❛s ❝♦♥ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s ❡❧❡❝tró♥✐❝❛s ❞❡♥tr♦✳ ▲❛ ❝❛❥❛ ✶ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡
✷✵✵✵ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s❀ ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛ ✷ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ✺✵✵ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✹✵✪ ❞❡
❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s❀ ❧❛s ❝❛❥❛s ✸ ② ✹ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ✶✵✵✵ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✶✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s✳
✶✳ ➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡s❝♦❣❡r ❛❧ ❛③❛r ✉♥❛ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛❄
◆♦t❡♠♦s D : ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ ② Ci : ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛ i✲és✐♠❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡
2000 4
P [C1 ] = =
2000 + 500 + 1000 + 1000 9
500 1
P [C2 ] = =
2000 + 500 + 1000 + 1000 9
1000 2
P [C3 ] = =
2000 + 500 + 1000 + 1000 9
1000 2
P [C4 ] = =
2000 + 500 + 1000 + 1000 9

❆❞❡♠ás✱ P [D | C1 ] = 0.05✱ P [D | C2 ] = 0.4✱ P [D | C3 ] = 0.1 ② P [D | C4 ] = 0.1✳

❯t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t♦t❛❧✱
P [D] = P [D | C1 ] P [C1 ] + P [D | C2 ] P [C2 ] + P [D | C3 ] P [C3 ]
+ P [D | C4 ] P [C4 ]
4 1 2 2
= 0.05 + 0.4 + 0.1 + 0.1 = 0. 11111
9 9 9 9

✷✳ ❙✐ s❡ ❡s❝♦❣❡ ✉♥❛ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ❛❧ ❛③❛r ② r❡s✉❧t❛ s❡r ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛✱ ➽❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡
♣❡rt❡♥❡③❝❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛ ✶❄
P [D | C1 ] P [C1 ] 0.05 49
P [C1 | D] = = = 0.2
P [D] 0.11111

✺✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

◆ú♠❡r♦ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ❝❛❥❛

µF ✶ ✷ ✸ ❚♦t❛❧
✵✳✵✶ ✷✵ ✾✺ ✷✺ ✶✹✵
✵✳✶ ✺✺ ✸✺ ✼✺ ✶✻✺
✶✳✵ ✼✵ ✽✵ ✶✹✺ ✷✾✺
❚♦t❛❧ ✶✹✺ ✷✶✵ ✷✹✺ ✻✵✵
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✸✳✷✿ ❆❝✉♠✉❧❛❞♦r❡s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡ ❞✐s♣♦♥❡♥ tr❡s ❝❛❥❛s ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❛❧♠❛❝❡♥❛♥ ❛❝✉♠✉❧❛❞♦r❡s s❡❣ú♥ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✸✳✷✳
❙❡ ❡s❝♦❣❡ ❛❧ ❛③❛r ✉♥❛ ❝❛❥❛ ② ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛✱ ❛ s✉ ✈❡③✱ ✉♥ ❛❝✉♠✉❧❛❞♦r✳

✶✳ ➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛②❛ s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ✉♥ ❛❝✉♠✉❧❛❞♦r ❞❡ ✵✳✵✶µF ❄

◆♦t❡♠♦s 0.01µF, 0.1µF ② 1.0µF ❛ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s ❡①tr❛❡r ✉♥ ❛❝✉♠✉❧❛❞♦r ❞❡ 0.01µF ✱ 0.1µF ② 1.0µF
r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳ ❉❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ♥♦t❡♠♦s c1✱ c2 ② c3 ❛ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s ❡❧❡❣✐r ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛ ✶✱ ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛ ✷ ② ❧❛
❝❛❥❛ ✸✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳ ❯t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t♦t❛❧✱

P [0.01µF ] = P [0.01µF / c1] P [c1] + P [0.01µF / c2] P [c2] + P [0.01µF / c3] P [c3]
20 1 95 1 25 1 5903
= + + = = 0.23078.
145 3 210 3 245 3 25 578

✷✳ ❙✐ ❤❛ s✐❞♦ s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ✉♥ ❛❝✉♠✉❧❛❞♦r ❞❡ ✶✳✵µF ✱ ➽❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♣r♦❝❡❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❥❛

✶❄ ❯t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s✱

P [1.0µF / c1] P [c1]

P [c1 / 1.0µF ] = .
P [1.0µF ]

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱

P [1.0µF ] = P [1.0µF / c1] P [c1] + P [1.0µF / c2] P [c2] + P [1.0µF / c3] P [c3]
70 1 80 1 145 1 6205
= + + = = 0.48518,
145 3 210 3 245 3 12 789

❧✉❡❣♦
70 1
145 3 2058
P [c1 / 1.0µF ] = 6205 = = 0.33167.
12 789
6205

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✐❣✉✐❡♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❛r❛♥❞❡❧❛s ❝♦♥ ❣r♦s♦r ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐s❡ñ♦✱
➽❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ t❡r❝❡r❛ ❛r❛♥❞❡❧❛ s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ s❡❛ ♠ás ❣r✉❡s❛ q✉❡ ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s
❞❡ ❞✐s❡ñ♦❄
P [A3 ] = P [A3 |A1 ∩A2 ]P [A1 ∩ A2 ] + P [A3 |Ā1 ∩A2 ]P [Ā1 ∩ A2 ]

+P [A3 |A1 ∩Ā2 ]P [A1 ∩ Ā2 ] + P [A3 |Ā1 ∩Ā2 ]P [Ā1 ∩ Ā2 ]

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✺✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

= P [A3 |A1 ∩A2 ]P [A1 ]P [A2 |A1 ] + P [A3 |Ā1 ∩A2 ]P [Ā1 ]P [A2 |Ā1 ]

+P [A3 |A1 ∩Ā2 ]P [A1 ]P [Ā2 |A1 ] + P [A3 |Ā1 ∩Ā2 ]P [Ā1 ]P [Ā2 |Ā1 ]

28 30 29 29 20 30
= +
48 50 49 48 50 49

29 30 20 30 20 19
+ + .
48 50 49 48 50 49

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♥❛❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s t❡r♥❛r✐♦ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✸✳✹✱ s❡ ❤❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦

q✉❡ ❡❧ ❞í❣✐t♦ ✸ ❡s ❡♥✈✐❛❞♦ tr❡s ✈❡❝❡s ♠ás ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ✶✱ ② ✷ ❞♦s ✈❡❝❡s ♠ás ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡

q✉❡ ✶✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❞í❣✐t♦ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ ❡♥✈✐❛❞♦ ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥❛❧ s❡❛ r❡❝✐❜✐❞♦

❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡✳

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ s✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s P [X = 1] = p✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s P [X = 2] = 2p ② P [X = 3] = 3p✳ P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱

❝♦♠♦

1 = P [X = 1] + P [X = 2] + P [X = 3] = 6p,

s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡
1 1 1
P [X = 1] = , P [X = 2] = ② P [X = 3] = .
6 3 2
❆❤♦r❛✱ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t♦t❛❧✱

P [dı́gito OK] = P [dı́gito OK / X = 1] P [X = 1]

+ P [dı́gito OK / X = 2] P [X = 2]
+ P [dı́gito OK / X = 3] P [X = 3]
= P [Y = 1 / X = 1] P [X = 1]
+ P [Y = 2 / X = 2] P [X = 2]
+ P [Y = 3 / X = 3] P [X = 3]
1 1 1
= (1 − α) + (1 − β) + (1 − γ) = P.
6 3 2

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥t✐♥✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ s✐ s❡ r❡❝✐❜❡ ✉♥ ✶✱ ➽❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❤✉❜✐❡r❛

❡♥✈✐❛❞♦ ✉♥ ✶❄

❯t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s✱

P [Y = 1 / X = 1] P [X = 1]
P [X = 1 / Y = 1] = .
P [Y = 1]

✺✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✸✳✹✿ ❈❛♥❛❧ t❡r♥❛r✐♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝r✉❝❡

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱

P [Y = 1] = P [Y = 1 / X = 1] P [X = 1]
+ P [Y = 1 / X = 2] P [X = 2]
+ P [Y = 1 / X = 3] P [X = 3]
1−α β γ
= + + ,
6 6 4

❧✉❡❣♦
1−α
6 −1 + α
P [X = 1 / Y = 1] = 1−α β γ
=2 .
6 + 6 + 4
−2 + 2α − 2β − 3γ

✸✳✾✳ ▼ás s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s

▲❛ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥❝✐❛ ❞❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s ❡♥ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ✈❛ ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠ás ❛❧❧á ❞❡ s✉ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♠♦ ❢ór♠✉❧❛
q✉❡ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✳ ▲❛ ✜❧♦s♦❢í❛ q✉❡ s✉❜②❛❝❡ ❡♥ é❧ ❤❛ ❞❛❞♦ ❧✉❣❛r ❛ t♦❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡
❡♥t❡♥❞❡r ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥❛✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛r ❧♦s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t♦s
❞❡ ❡st❛ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ❞❡ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡r ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛✳
❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❤❛② ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ A s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ s❡r✐♦ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ s✐ s❡ ❞❛ ♦ ♥♦ s❡
❞❛✳ ❚❛♥t♦ ❡s ❛sí q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ s✉❝❡s♦✱ P [A]✳ ❊s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡r
q✉❡ ♥♦s♦tr♦s s♦♠♦s ❝♦♥s❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ q✉❡ A ❤❛ ♦❝✉rr✐❞♦ ♦ ♥♦ ❤❛ ♦❝✉rr✐❞♦✿ ❡❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❡s ♣r❡❝✐s❛♠❡♥t❡ q✉❡
♥♦ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉é ❤❛ ♣❛s❛❞♦✳ ❉❡❝✐♠♦s q✉❡ ❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♣♦rq✉❡ P [A] ♥♦ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❆
♦❝✉rr❛✱ s✐♥♦ ♥✉❡str♦ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❤❛ ♦❝✉rr✐❞♦✳
❊s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ q✉❡ ♥♦ t❡♥❣❛♠♦s✱ ❡♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ ❞❛t♦s ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❡①❛❝t❛ ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ A✳
❆ú♥ ❛sí✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❛tr❡✈❡r♥♦s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❡①♣❡rt♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ t❡♠❛✱ ❛ ❞❛r ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ P [A]✳
❆ ❡st❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✐♥✐❝✐❛❧ q✉❡ ❞❛♠♦s ❧❛ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❧❧❛♠❛r ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✳
❆❤♦r❛ ❜✐❡♥✱ ❤❡♠♦s ❞❛❞♦ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ P [A] s✐♥ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ A✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s ❛❤♦r❛

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✺✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ♥✉❡✈❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❞❛rá ♣✐st❛s ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ s✐ A ❤❛ ♦❝✉rr✐❞♦ ♦ ♥♦✱ ② q✉❡ ❞✐❝❤❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥
❡stá r❡❝♦❣✐❞❛ ❡♥ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❧❧❛♠❛r❡♠♦s B1 ✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ② ❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s ❛❝t✉❛❧✐③❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ A ❜❛sá♥❞♦♥♦s ❡♥ ❡st❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥✱ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ A q✉❡ t❡♥❣❛ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛
B1 ✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ P [A |B ]✱ q✉❡ ❧❧❛♠❛r❡♠♦s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r✐✳
1

❊♥ ❡s❛ ❛❝t✉❛❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡♥tr❛ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡
P [B1 |A ] P [A]
P [A |B1 ] =  .
P [B1 |A ] P [A] + P [B1 |Ā ] P Ā

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r✐ ❡s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✳

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡s ♠✉② ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ✈❡r q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡①t❡♥❞❡r ❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❥❛r ❛♣❧✐❝❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡
✉♥❛ ❢♦r♠❛ r❡❝✉rs✐✈❛✳ ❉❡s♣✉és ❞❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r B1 ✱ ♥✉❡str❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❛ A ❡s P [A |B ]✳ ❆❜✉s❛♥❞♦ ❞❡
1

❧❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡s❛ ❡s ♥✉❡str❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ② s✐✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s ♠ás
✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ A✱ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r ♦tr♦ s✉❝❡s♦ B2 ✱ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ B1 ✱ ❧❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❛ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r✐ s❡rí❛
P [B2 |A∩B1 ] P [A |B1 ]
P [A |B1 ∩B2 ] =    
P [B2 |A∩B1 ] P [A |B1 ] + P B2 |Ā∩B1 P Ā |B1
P [B2 |A ] P [A |B1 ]
=  .
P [B2 |A ] P [A |B1 ] + P [B2 |Ā ] P Ā |B1

❊s ♠✉② ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛r q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ P [A |B ] ♦❝✉♣❛ ❡❧ ❧✉❣❛r q✉❡ ❛♥t❡s ♦❝✉♣❛❜❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
1

❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ ❡st❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r✐ ♣♦❞rí❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛
♣r✐♦r✐ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❜❛s❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥♦❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♥
s✉❝❡s♦ B3 ✳ ❊st❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ❜❛s❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞✐s♣♦♥✐❜❧❡
♣✉❡❞❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛rs❡ ❝✉❛♥t❛s ✈❡❝❡s s❡❛ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✐❧✉str❛r ❡st♦ ❡♥ ✉♥ ♣❛r ❞❡ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s✳

✸✳✾✳✶✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ❥✉❡③

❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ ❥✉❡③ ❞❡❜❡ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r s✐ ✉♥ s♦s♣❡❝❤♦s♦ ❡s ✐♥♦❝❡♥t❡ ♦ ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡✳ ➱❧ s❛❜❡ q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❝✉✐❞❛❞♦s♦
② ❣❛r❛♥t✐st❛ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❡r❡❝❤♦s ❞❡❧ ❛❝✉s❛❞♦✱ ♣❡r♦ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣♦r s✉ ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝✐❛ ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ q✉❡
❡❧ s♦s♣❡❝❤♦s♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛s♦✱ ❡st✐♠❛ ♣♦r ❞❡❜❛❥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❝r❡❡ ♣❛r❛✱
✐♥s✐st♦✱ s❡r ❣❛r❛♥t✐st❛ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❡r❡❝❤♦s ❞❡❧ ❛❝✉s❛❞♦✳ P♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡st✐♠❛ ❡st❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ✉♥ ✶✵✪✳
❆❤♦r❛ ❡♠♣✐❡③❛ ❛ ❡①❛♠✐♥❛r ❧❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s✳ ▲❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s ❡s ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ❆❉◆ ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❛❝✉s❛❞♦ ❞✐♦
♣♦s✐t✐✈♦✿ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r♦♥ ♠❛t❡r✐❛❧ ❣❡♥ét✐❝♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛r♠❛ ❞❡❧ ❝r✐♠❡♥ q✉❡✱ s❡❣ú♥ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛✱ ❡s s✉②♦✳ ❊s❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡
❆❉◆ ❞❛ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✾✾✳✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❡❝❡s ❡♥ q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛♥ ❞♦s ❆❉◆✬s ✐❞é♥t✐❝♦s✱ ♣❡r♦ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❞❛ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦
✭❡rró♥❡❛♠❡♥t❡✮ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✵✳✵✵✺✪ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❡❝❡s ❡♥ q✉❡ s❡ ❛♣❧✐❝❛ ❛ ❞♦s ❆❉◆✬s ❞✐st✐♥t♦s✳ ❚❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡st❛
✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❡❧ ❥✉❡③ ❛♣❧✐❝❛ ♣♦r ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ✈❡③ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s ❝♦♥ ❧♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ❞❛t♦s✿
P [culpable] = 0.1 ✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❥✉❡③ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛✳
▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ❆❉◆ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ s✐ ❡❧ ❛❝✉s❛❞♦ ❡s ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡ ❡s
P [ADN + |culpable ] = 0.995.

✺✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ❆❉◆ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ s✐ ❡❧ ❛❝✉s❛❞♦ ❡s ✐♥♦❝❡♥t❡ ❡s

P [ADN + |inocente ] = 0.00005.

❆❤♦r❛ ②❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛❝t✉❛❧✐③❛r s✉ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝r❡❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❝✉❧♣❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ s♦s♣❡❝❤♦s♦✿

P [ADN + |culpable ] × P [culpable]
P [culpable |ADN + ] =
P [ADN + |culpable ] × P [culpable] + P [ADN + |inocente ] × P [inocente]
0.995 × 0.1
= = 0.999548
0.995 × 0.1 + 0.00005 × 0.9

❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❛❤♦r❛ ♣✐❡♥s❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ s♦s♣❡❝❤♦s♦ ❡s ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✾✳✾✺✹✽ ✪ ❞❡ ❝❡rt❡③❛✳ ❋✐❥é♠♦♥♦s ❡♥ q✉❡ ♥✉❡str❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❧♦s tér♠✐♥♦s ✵✳✶ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♥✉♠❡r❛❞♦r ② ✵✳✶ ② ✵✳✾ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞♦r✳ ❊s❛✱ ✵✳✶✱
❡r❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ q✉❡ t❡♥í❛♠♦s ❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❢✉❡r❛ ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡ ✭② ✵✳✾ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❢✉❡r❛ ✐♥♦❝❡♥t❡✮❀
❞❡s♣✉és ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❡s❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ✵✳✾✾✾✺✹✽ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡❛ ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡ ✭② ✵✳✵✵✵✹✺✷ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡❛ ✐♥♦❝❡♥t❡✮✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡❧ s♦s♣❡❝❤♦s♦ ✐♥s✐st❡ ❡♥ s✉ ✐♥♦❝❡♥❝✐❛✱ ② ♣r♦♣♦♥❡ s♦♠❡t❡rs❡ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡❝t♦r ❞❡
♠❡♥t✐r❛s✳ ▲♦s ❡①♣❡rt♦s s❛❜❡♥ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡ ❡s ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ ❡♥❣❛ñ❛r ❛ ❡st❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✶✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❡❝❡s✱ ②
q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❞✐rá ❡❧ ✶ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❡❝❡s q✉❡ ✉♥ ✐♥♦❝❡♥t❡ ♠✐❡♥t❡✳ ◆✉❡str♦ s♦s♣❡❝❤♦s♦ s❡ s♦♠❡t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ②
ést❛ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ❡s ✐♥♦❝❡♥t❡✳ ➽❈✉á❧ s❡rá ❛❤♦r❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❥✉❡③ ❛s✐❣♥❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❝✉❧♣❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ s♦s♣❡❝❤♦s♦❄
❚❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡✿
P [maquina− |culpable ] = 0.1✱

P [maquina+ |inocente ] = 0.01✱

❞❡❜❡ ❛♣❧✐❝❛r ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥❞♦ ❛❤♦r❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡❛
❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡ ❡s ✾✾✳✾✺✹✽ ✪✿
P [maquina− |culpable ] × P [culpable]
P [culpable |maquina− ] =
P [maquina− |culpable ] × P [culpable] + P [maquina− |inocente ] × P [inocente]
0.1 × 0.999548
= = 0.9955431.
0.1 × 0.999548 + (1 − 0.01) × (1 − 0.999548)

❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❛ú♥ ❝♦♥ ❡s❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛✱ ❡❧ ❥✉❡③ ❛ú♥ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥ ✾✾✳✺✺✹✸✶✪ ❞❡ ❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ s♦s♣❡❝❤♦s♦
❡s ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡✳ ❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡s✉♠✐r ❡st❡ ♣❛s♦ ❞✐❝✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ♥✉❡str❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❢✉❡r❛ ❝✉❧♣❛❜❧❡ ❡r❛ ❞❡ ✵✳✾✾✾✺✹✽ ✭q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ ♦❝✉♣❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✮✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❞❡s♣✉és ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❡s❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ✵✳✾✾✺✺✹✸✶✳
❊❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✈❡rs❡ r❡s✉♠✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✸✳✸✳
✸✳✾✳✷✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢❛❧❧♦s

❊♥ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ s❡r✐❡ ❞❡ ❝❛♣ós ❞❡ ❝♦❝❤❡✱ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❡♥❝❛r❣❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡❝t❛r
❞❡s♣❡r❢❡❝t♦s q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❝❤❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♣✐❡③❛ ❞❡ ❝❛♣ó✳ ❊s❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❡stá ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ❞❡t❡❝t❛r ✉♥❛ ♣✐❡③❛ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛
❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❛❝✐❡rt♦✱ ♣❡r♦ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❞❡t❡❝t❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s ❡❧ ✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣✐❡③❛s ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s✳ ❊❧
❡♥❝❛r❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❡st✐♠❛✱ ♣♦r ❡st✉❞✐♦s ♣r❡✈✐♦s✱ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❞❡ ♣✐❡③❛s ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s ❡s ❞❡❧ ✺✪✳
❊st❡ ❡♥❝❛r❣❛❞♦✱ ❝♦♥s❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞❛r ♣♦r ❜✉❡♥❛s ♣✐❡③❛s q✉❡ s♦♥ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s✱ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ ❛❝t✉❛r
❞❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ❢♦r♠❛✿ ✉♥❛ ♣✐❡③❛ q✉❡ s❡❛ ❞❡t❡❝t❛❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ ♣❛s❛rá ♦tr❛s ❞♦s ✈❡❝❡s ♣♦r ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛
♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❞❡t❡❝t♦r❛ ② só❧♦ s❡rá ❞❡❝❧❛r❛❞❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡♥ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❡s❛s tr❡s ♣r✉❡❜❛s✱ ❞❡ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛✳
Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✺✼
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

P [Culpable]
❆♥t❡s ❞❡ ❉❡s♣✉és ❞❡
❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛
✶➟ ♣r✉❡❜❛✿ ADN + ✵✳✶ P [ADN +|
P [ADN +| ]×0.1
culpable
]×0.1+P [ADN +| ]×(1−0.1) = 0.999548
✵✳✾✾✾✺✹✽ P [maquina−|
culpable inocente

✷➟ ♣r✉❡❜❛✿ maquina− P [maquina−| ]×0.999548

culpable
]×0.999548+P [maquina−|
culpable ]×(1−0.999548) = 0.9955431
inocente

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✸✳✸✿ ❊sq✉❡♠❛ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ✐t❡r❛t✐✈♦ ❞❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ❥✉❡③✳ ▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛
♣r✐♦r✐ ✭❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛✮ ❡s ❧❛ q✉❡ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ ♣❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r✐
✭❞❡s♣úés ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛✮✳ ▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r✐ ✭❞❡s♣✉és✮ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐
✭❛♥t❡s✮ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛✳
❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ♣✐❡③❛ ♣❛s❛ ❧❛s tr❡s ✈❡❝❡s ② ❞❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛✿ ➽❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡
s❡❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛❄
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❡♠♣❡③❛r ♥♦t❛♥❞♦ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s✳ ◆♦t❛r❡♠♦s D ❛❧ s✉❝❡s♦ s❡r ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ ② ♣♦r + ❛ ❞❛r
♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ ❝♦♠♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛✳ ❙❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡✿
P [D] = 0.05 ✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐❀
P [+ |D ] = 0.9 ②

P [+ |D̄ ] = 0.05✳

▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ♣✐❡③❛ s❡❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ ❡s ❞❡ ✵✳✾✺✱ ♣❡r♦ s✐ ❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛
✉♥❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ✈❡③✱ ❞✐❝❤❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛s❛ ❛ s❡r
 
  P [+̄ |D̄ ] P D̄
P D̄ |+̄ =  
P [+̄ |D̄ ] P D̄ + P [+̄ |D ] P [D]
0.95 × 0.95
= = 0.9944904.
0.95 × 0.95 + 0.1 × 0.05

❊s❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛s❛ ❛ s❡r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ ❞❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❧❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ s✐ ❞❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦ ♣♦r s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ✈❡③ ❡s
  P [+̄ |D̄ ] 0.9944904
P D̄ |+̄+̄ =
P [+̄ |D̄ ] 0.9944904 + P [+̄ |D ] (1 − 0.9944904)
0.95 × 0.9944904
= = 0.9994172.
0.95 × 0.9944904 + 0.1 × (1 − 0.9944904)

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ s✐ ❞❛ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦ ♣♦r t❡r❝❡r❛ ✈❡③ ❡s

  P [+̄ |D̄ ] 0.9994172
P D̄ |+̄+̄+̄ =
P [+̄ |D̄ ] 0.9994172 + P [+̄ |D ] (1 − 0.9994172)
0.95 × 0.9994172
= = 0.9999386.
0.95 × 0.9994172 + 0.1 × (1 − 0.9994172)

❈♦♠♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r✱ s✐ ✉♥❛ ♣✐❡③❛ ❞❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ tr❡s ✈❡❝❡s✱ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡❛ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦
❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛ ❡s ❛❧tís✐♠❛✱ ❞❡❧ ♦r❞❡♥ ❞❡❧ ✾✾✳✾✾ ✪✱ ❛sí q✉❡ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ✐❞❡❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❡❧ r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❡❝❡
❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t❡✳

✺✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

 
P D̄
❆♥t❡s ❞❡ ❉❡s♣✉és ❞❡
❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛
✶➟ ♣r✉❡❜❛✿ +̄ ✵✳✾✺
P [+̄|D̄ ]0.95
P [+̄|D̄ ]0.95+P [+̄|D ](1−0.95) = 0.9944904
✷➟ ♣r✉❡❜❛✿ +̄ ✵✳✾✾✹✹✾✵✹
P [+̄|D̄ ]0.9944904
P [+̄|D̄ ]0.9944904+P [+̄|D ](1−0.9944904) = 0.9994172
✸➟ ♣r✉❡❜❛✿ +̄ ✵✳✾✾✾✹✶✼✷
P [+̄|D̄ ]0.9994172
P [+̄|D̄ ]0.9994172+P [+̄|D ](1−0.9994172) = 0.9999386

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✸✳✹✿ ❊sq✉❡♠❛ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ✐t❡r❛t✐✈♦ ❞❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡❝❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ❢❛❧❧♦s✳ ▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ✭❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛✮ ❡s ❧❛ q✉❡ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ ♣❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r✐ ✭❞❡s♣úés ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛✮✳ ▲❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r✐ ✭❞❡s♣✉és✮ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❡s
❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ✭❛♥t❡s✮ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✺✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✻✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✹

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳ ▼♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡

❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞

▼❛s ❛ ♣❡s❛r ❞❡ t♦❞♦ ❡s♦✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❛❧❛ s✉❡rt❡ ❡①✐st❛✱ ♠✉② ♣♦❝♦s r❡♣♦rt❡r♦s ✈❡t❡r❛♥♦s ❝r❡❡♥ ❞❡
✈❡r❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❡❧❧❛✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❣✉❡rr❛✱ ❧❛s ❝♦s❛s s✉❡❧❡♥ ❞✐s❝✉rr✐r ♠ás ❜✐❡♥ s❡❣ú♥ ❧❛ ❧❡② ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✿
t❛♥t♦ ✈❛ ❡❧ ❝á♥t❛r♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❛❧ ✜♥❛❧ ❤❛❝❡ ❜❛♥❣✳

❆rt✉r♦ Pér❡③ ❘❡✈❡rt❡✱ ❡♥ ❚❡rr✐t♦r✐♦ ❈♦♠❛♥❝❤❡

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛♠♦s ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ♣❛r❛ r❡❢❡r✐r♥♦s ❛ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ q✉❡❞❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦✳ ❙❡
♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❛s✐❣♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ② s✉s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ♠ás
r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s✳
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ●❛♠♠❛✱
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

✹✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❊♥ ❡❧ t❡♠❛ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ s❡ ♦❝✉♣❛ ❞❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s✳ ❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❡♥ ❈✐❡♥❝✐❛
② ❚❡❝♥♦❧♦❣í❛ s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ♦ ✈❛r✐❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱
s❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛ ✉♥ ♦❜❥❡t♦ s❡❣ú♥ s✉ ♣❡s♦✱ s✉ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥✱ s✉ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✱ s✉ ❝♦♥t❡♥✐❞♦ ❞❡ ❛❣✉❛✳✳✳❀ ♦ s❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛ ❡❧ trá✜❝♦
❞❡ ■♥t❡r♥❡t s❡❣ú♥ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❡①✐♦♥❡s ❛ ✉♥ s❡r✈✐❞♦r✱ ❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ trá✜❝♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛❞♦✱ ❧❛ ✈❡❧♦❝✐❞❛❞✳✳✳
❊♥ ❡st♦s s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛ ❞❡s❝r✐t♦ ✉♥ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ❢ís✐❝♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ✉♥ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ♦
❡❧ ❡st❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ r❡❞ ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ✉♥ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛❞♦✱ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥♦ ♦ ✈❛r✐♦s ♥ú♠❡r♦s ♦ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳
❈✉❛♥❞♦ ❡s❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ❡s ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❧❧❛♠❛r ❛ ❡s❛ ❛s✐❣♥❛❝✐ó♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ✳
❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧íst✐❝♦ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ Ω ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ P [·] .

✻✶
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❯♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ✭❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❛❤♦r❛ ✈✳❛✳✮ ❡s ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ r❡❛❧ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ r❡❛❧ ❝♦♥ ❞♦♠✐♥✐♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ X : Ω → R.
P♦❞❡♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♠♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t✉❛❧✱ ②❛ q✉❡ só❧♦ ♣♦❞rá
♦❜s❡r✈❛rs❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ s❡ t♦♠❡♥ ♠✉❡str❛s s✉②❛s✳
❊♥ ❧❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛r❡♠♦s ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❝♦♠♦ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡♥
♠❛②ús❝✉❧❛s✱ ② ❛ s✉s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦s s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡♥ ♠✐♥ús❝✉❧❛✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s r❡❢❡r✐r♥♦s ❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❛♥t❡s
❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛r s✉ ✈❛❧♦r✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♥♦t❛r❧❛ ❝♦♠♦ X, ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦❀ ♣❡r♦ ✉♥❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤❛
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✭②❛ ♥♦ ❡s✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❛❧❣♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✮✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♥♦t❛r ❛ ❡s❡ ✈❛❧♦r ❡♥ ♠✐♥ús❝✉❧❛✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ x✳
P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X q✉❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❛ ❧❛ ♣✉♥t✉❛❝✐ó♥ ♦❜t❡♥✐❞❛ ❛❧ ❧❛♥③❛r ❡❧
❞❛❞♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6✳ P♦❞r❡♠♦s ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛r♥♦s ♣♦r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ X t♦♠❡
❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r x = 4 ♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ X ≤ 6✳ ❙✐ ❧❛♥③❛♠♦s ❡❧ ❞❛❞♦ ② ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❤❛ s❛❧✐❞♦ ✉♥ ✻✱ ❞✐r❡♠♦s q✉❡ x = 6✳
◆♦ ♦❧✈✐❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ❡s ♠❡❞✐r
❧❛ ❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ♦ ❧❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ s✉s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳ ❆❧ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❡st♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s s♦♥ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s s✉❥❡t♦s ❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡✳ ❊❧ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦ ❛❤♦r❛ ❡s
❝✉❛♥t✐✜❝❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡s♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❢♦r♠❛✳

✹✳✷✳ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛

✹✳✷✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥

❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ s✐ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❡s ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦✱ ❛ ❧♦
s✉♠♦✱ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡ ✭❞✐s❝r❡t♦✮✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✿

❊❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❛❧ ❛ñ♦✳

❊❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❡rr♦r❡s ❡♥ ✉♥ ♠❡♥s❛❥❡ tr❛♥s♠✐t✐❞♦✳

❊❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣✐❡③❛s ❞❡❢❡❝t✉♦s❛s ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞❛s ❛ ❧♦ ❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞í❛ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❝❛❞❡♥❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✳

❊❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞í❛s ❞❡ ❜❛❥❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ tr❛❜❛❥❛❞♦r ❛❧ ♠❡s✳

✹✳✷✳✷✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞

❉❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ X ✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♠♦

f (x) = P [X = x] ,

♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ x ∈ R.

✻✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

◆♦t❛✳ ❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ❡stá ❞❡✜♥✐❞❛ ❡♥ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛
r❡❛❧✱ ♣❡r♦ só❧♦ ✈❛❧❞rá ❞✐st✐♥t♦ ❞❡ ❝❡r♦ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦✱ ❛ ❧♦ s✉♠♦✱ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡✱ q✉❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s
ú♥✐❝♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❞❛rs❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ② f (x) s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✿

✶✳ f (x) ≥ 0 ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ x ∈ R.

✷✳
P
x∈R f (x) = 1.

✸✳ ❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ B,

X
P [X ∈ B] = f (xi ) ,
xi ∈B

❞♦♥❞❡ xi s♦♥ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❞❡ X.

✹✳✷✳✸✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛

❊♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ♥❛❞✐❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❧❛ ❛✉té♥t✐❝❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ ♣❡r♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛r❧❛
♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳
❙✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ X ✱ x1 , ..., xN , ❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❛s✐❣♥❛ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r x ❧❛
❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ ✈❛❧♦r s❡ ❞❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱

número de valores xi iguales a x

femp (x) = .
N

❙✐ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦✱ N ✱ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡s ❣r❛♥❞❡✱ ❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ t✐❡♥❞❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❛✉té♥t✐❝❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ x ∈ R✳

lı́m femp (x) = f (x) .

N →∞

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❛❧ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞❛❞♦
✻✵✵ ✈❡❝❡s✳ ❊st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❜❛rr❛s ✈❡rt✐❝❛❧❡s✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛
t❡ór✐❝❛✱ f (x) = 16 ✱ ♣❛r❛ x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥❛ ❧í♥❡❛ ❤♦r✐③♦♥t❛❧✳ P✉❡❞❡ ❛♣r❡❝✐❛r✲
s❡ ❝ó♠♦ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s t❡ór✐❝❛s ② ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛s ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ♣❛r❡❝✐❞❛s✳ ◆♦ ♦❜st❛♥t❡✱ ➽❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s
❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r ❛ ❧❛ ❧✉③ ❞❡ ❡st♦s ✻✵✵ ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ❞❛❞♦ ♥♦ ❡stá ❝❛r❣❛❞♦❄

✹✳✷✳✹✳ ▼❡❞✐❛ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛

❉❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ X ✱ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ f (x)✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♦ ❡s♣❡r❛♥③❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛
❝♦♠♦ X
EX = x × f (x).
x

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✻✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✿ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✻✵✵ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞❛❞♦✳

❈♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ s❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ❝❡♥tr♦ ❞❡
❣r❛✈❡❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ❞❡
❝❛❞❛ ✈❛❧♦r ❧♦ ❞❛ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ ✈❛❧♦r ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ② ❛q✉í ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ❧♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❞❛❞❛
♣♦r ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛✳

❉❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ X ✱ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ f (x)✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✉ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝♦♠♦
X
V arX = (x − EX)2 × f (x).
x

▲❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠ás ❝ó♠♦❞❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s ❞❡s❛rr♦❧❧❛♥❞♦ ♣r❡✈✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦ q✉❡
❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ s✉ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥✱ ②❛ q✉❡
X X
V arX = (x − EX)2 × f (x) = (x2 − 2xEX + EX 2 ) × f (x)
x x
X X X
= x2 × f (x) − 2EX × x × f (x) + EX 2 × f (x)
x x x

=E[X 2 ] − 2EX 2 + EX 2 = E[X 2 ] − EX 2 .

❆❧ ✐❣✉❛❧ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡s ❝♦♥✈❡♥✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡✜♥✐r ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳✱ ❝♦♠♦
√
σ = V arX ✱ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② q✉❡ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛r ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡❧
❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

✹✳✸✳ ▼♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞✐s✲

❝r❡t❛s

❙❡❣ú♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦ ❤❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛✱ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ s❡ ❛s✐❣♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳ ❆ ❡st❛ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r ❧❛

✻✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❧❛ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❧❧❛♠❛r ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❛❤♦r❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❉é♠♦♥♦s ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛r✱ ♣❛r❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ só❧♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❞❛r s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳

❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛ r❡❛❧ ♥❛❞✐❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ❛✉té♥t✐❝❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♥❛❞✐❡ s❛❜❡ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳ ❚♦❞♦ ❧♦ ♠ás✱
♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❆ú♥ ❛sí✱ ❧❧❡❣❛rá ❡❧ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦
❞❡ ♣❛s❛r ❛❧ ❧í♠✐t❡✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❞❡ ✐♥❞✉❝✐r ✉♥❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ t❡ór✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡♠♦s ② q✉❡ s❡ ♣❛r❡③❝❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

P❛r❛ ❛②✉❞❛r ❛ ❡s❡ ♣❛s♦ ❛❧ ❧í♠✐t❡✱ ❡♥ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ s❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s t❡ór✐❝♦s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦✲
❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ❢ór♠✉❧❛s t❡ór✐❝❛s ❞❡ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛s❛ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ r❡s✉❧t❛r ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛s ♣❛r❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛s
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✳

❍❛② ✉♥❛ ♠❡tá❢♦r❛ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛②✉❞❛r ❛ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡r ❝ó♠♦ s❡ ❛s✐❣♥❛ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ q✉❡
❛❜✉♥❞❛r❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❧♦ s✉❝❡s✐✈♦✿ ➽q✉é ♦❝✉rr❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❝♦♠♣r❛r ✉♥♦s ♣❛♥t❛❧♦♥❡s❄ ❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❛❝✉❞✐♠♦s
❛ ✉♥❛ t✐❡♥❞❛ ❞❡ ♠♦❞❛ ②✿

✶✳ ❉❡ ❡♥tr❡ ✉♥❛ s❡r✐❡ ❞❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s✱ ❡❧❡❣✐♠♦s ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ q✉❡ ❝r❡❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♠❡❥♦r ♥♦s ✈❛✳

✷✳ ❇✉s❝❛♠♦s ❧❛ t❛❧❧❛ q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡ q✉❡ ♠❡❥♦r s❡ ❛❥✉st❡ ❛ ♥♦s♦tr♦s✱ s❡❣ú♥ ♥✉❡str❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s✳

P✉❡s ❜✐❡♥✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈✳❛✳

♥✉❡str❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s s♦♥ ❧❛s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱
♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛❀

❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ t✐❡♥❞❛✱ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s q✉❡ ❡❧❡❣✐♠♦s ❡❧ q✉❡ ♠ás ♥♦s ❣✉st❛✱ s♦♥ ❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s t❡ór✐❝♦s q✉❡
✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❡♠♣❡③❛r ❛ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥❀

② ❧❛ t❛❧❧❛ q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣❛♥t❛❧♦♥❡s s❡ ❛❥✉st❡♥ ❛ ♥♦s♦tr♦s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ s♦♥ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s
♠♦❞❡❧♦s t❡ór✐❝♦s✳

❊♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ r❡st❛ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s t❡ór✐❝♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♠ás
❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛s✱ ❝♦♠❡♥③❛♥❞♦ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✳

✹✳✸✳✶✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ q✉❡ t♦♠❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s x = 0, 1, ..., n✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ n ❡s ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦✳ ❙❡ ❞✐❝❡
q✉❡ X s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s n ② p ✭② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → B (n, p)✮ s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛
❡s
!
n n−x
f (x) = px (1 − p)
x
n! n−x
= px (1 − p) , x = 0, 1, 2, ..., n.
x! (n − x)!

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✻✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

0.4
B(10,0.25)
0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0.4
B(10,0.5)
0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

0.4
B(10,0.75)
0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✷✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧❡s✳

❙❡❛ X → B (n, p)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s

EX = np
V arX = np (1 − p) .

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦

s❡ r❡♣✐t❡ n ✈❡❝❡s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❤❛② ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♠♦s é①✐t♦✱

q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❝♦♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ p✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X q✉❡ ♠✐❞❡ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ é①✐t♦s

s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ B (n, p)✳

❊♥ ❡st❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛r q✉❡ ❧❛s ❞♦s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ s♦♥✿

❧♦s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s s❡ r❡♣✐t❡♥ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ②

❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ é①✐t♦ ❡s ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡✳

❊♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❡st❛s ❞♦s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥♦ s❡❛♥ ✈á❧✐❞❛s✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥♦ s❡rá ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛

✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ é①✐t♦s✳

❯♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ❧♦ ❝♦♥st✐t✉②❡ ❧❛ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❇❡r♥♦✉✐❧❧✐✳

❙❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ B (1, p)✱ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛

(
1−p s✐ x=0
f (x) = .
p s✐ x=1

✻✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

x ✵ ✶ ✷ ✸ ✹
4 0 4 4 1 3 4 2 2 4 3 1 4
0.24 0.80






0 0.2 0.8 1 0.2 0.8 2 0.2 0.8 3 0.2 0.8 4
P [X = x]
= 0.41 = 0.41 = 0.15 = 0.03 = 0.00

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✹✳✶✿ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ B (4, 0.2)

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ ✈✳❛✳ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞í❛s ❛ ❧❛ s❡♠❛♥❛ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❥♦✈❡♥ ❞❡ ❤♦② ❝♦♥s✉✲
♠❡ ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧✳ ➽P♦❞rí❛♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ B (7, p)✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ p =
número medio de dı́as de consumo
7 ❄ Pr♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦✱ ♣♦rq✉❡

✶✳ P✉❡❞❡ ❞❛rs❡ ❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ r❡s❛❝❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ s❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠❡ ♠✉❝❤♦ ✉♥ ❞í❛✱ ❤✉✐r ❞❡❧ ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧ ❛❧ ❞í❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡❀ ♦
❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ✐♥✈❡rs♦ ✉♥ ❝❧❛✈♦ q✉✐t❛ ♦tr♦ ❝❧❛✈♦ ❀ ♦ ✳✳✳❀ ❡♥ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐✈❛✱ ❝✐r❝✉♥st❛♥❝✐❛s q✉❡ r♦♠♣❛♥ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s
❞❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ❡♥ ❞í❛s ❞✐st✐♥t♦s✳

✷✳ ❊stá ❝❧❛r♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐r ✉♥ ♠❛rt❡s ♥♦ ❡s✱ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ q✉❡ ✉♥ sá❜❛❞♦✳
❚❛♠♣♦❝♦ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❥ó✈❡♥❡s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝♦♥s✉♠✐r ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧ ✉♥ ❞í❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ s❡ ✈❡ ♦❜❧✐❣❛❞♦ ❛ tr❛♥s♠✐t✐r ❞í❣✐t♦s ❜✐♥❛r✐♦s ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ✉♥ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉✲

♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ✐♠♣❡r❢❡❝t♦✳ P♦r ❡st✉❞✐♦s ♣r❡✈✐♦s✱ ❡st✐♠❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❞í❣✐t♦ s❡
tr❛♥s♠✐t❛ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡s ❞❡❧ ✷✵ ✪✳ ❊❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ❡♥✈í❛ ✉♥ ♠❡♥s❛❥❡ ❞❡ ✹ ❞í❣✐t♦s ② s❡ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ❝✉á♥t♦s
s❡ r❡❝✐❜✐rá♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡✳
❉❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ♥♦s♦tr♦s ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡s♣♦♥❞❡r ❛ ❡s❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛✳ ❊♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ♥❛❞✐❡
♣✉❡❞❡ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡r ❛ ❡s❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ❝♦♥ ❝❡rt❡③❛✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡①✐st❡ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ❧❛t❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❡❧❧❛✿ ❡❧ ❛③❛r ❞❡t❡r✲
♠✐♥❛rá ❝✉á♥t♦s ❞í❣✐t♦s s❡ ❝r✉③❛♥✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ sí ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❤❛❝❡r ❡s ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r❧❡ ❡❧ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝❡rt❡③❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳
❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛♠♦s ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ X ✿ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❞í❣✐t♦s q✉❡ s❡ r❡❝✐❜❡♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦
❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡♥s❛②♦ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ❡♥✈í♦ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ❞í❣✐t♦ s❡ ❤❛rá ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② q✉❡ ♥♦s ❤❛ ❞✐❝❤♦
q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❞í❣✐t♦ s❡ r❡❝✐❜❛ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡s ✵✳✷✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❞✐❝❤❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ B(4, 0.2)✳ ❊st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦s ♣❡r♠✐t❡
❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❝r✉❝❡♥ ✵✱ ✶✱ ✷✱ ✸ ♦ ✹ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞í❣✐t♦s✳ ▲♦ ❡sq✉❡♠❛t✐③❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛
❛❞❥✉♥t❛✳ ❱✐st♦s ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r❧❡ ❛❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ q✉❡ ❡s ❤❛rt❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♠♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ❢❛❧❧❡♥
❧♦s ✹ ❞í❣✐t♦s✱ ♣❡r♦ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✭✈❡r ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✹✳✶✮ ❞❡

0.41 + 0.15 + 0.03 + 0.00 = 0.59

❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ❢❛❧❧❡ ❡❧ ❡♥✈í♦ ❞❡ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✻✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✹✳✸✳✷✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s x = 0, 1, 2, ... ❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ X s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ ✭② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → P (λ)✮ s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❡s

λx
f (x) = e−λ , x = 0, 1, 2, ...
x!

❙❡❛ X → P (λ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s

EX = λ
V arX = λ.

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ é①✐t♦s ❡♥ ✉♥ ♣❡r✐♦❞♦ ❞❡

t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧♦s é①✐t♦s ❛❝♦♥t❡❝❡♥ ❛ r❛③ó♥ ❞❡ λ ✈❡❝❡s ♣♦r ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ ✭❡♥ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦✮ ② ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦

X : número de ocurrencias del suceso por unidad de tiempo

❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ, ② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → P (λ) .

❊♥ ❡st❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❧❛s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡s ❛❤♦r❛ s♦♥✿

❧❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐♦♥❡s ②

❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛s ♣♦r ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ s✉❡❧❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ♦❝✉rr✐❞♦s
❡♥ ❧♦s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❛ ❧♦ ❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣❡r✐♦❞♦ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ ♠✉❝❤❛ ❣❡♥t❡ ♥♦ t❡r♠✐♥❛
❞❡ ❛s✉♠✐r ❡s q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡r ❡s❛ s✉♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ t♦❞♦s ❡s♦s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ r✐❡s❣♦
❞❡ t❡♥❡r ✉♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡ ② q✉❡ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦ t❡♥❣❛ ✉♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ♥❛❞❛ ❧❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ s✉❢r✐r ✉♥ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡✳ ❊s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❡♥ ♠✉❝❤❛s s✐t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛ r❡❛❧ ❡s♦ ♥♦
❡s ❝✐❡rt♦✱ ❛sí q✉❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♥♦ s❡rá ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧❧❛s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❖tr❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ♠✉② ❝♦♠ú♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❡s ❛❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s ♣♦r ✉♥✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ❡♥ ✉♥ ✢✉✐❞♦ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ❞✐s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❡stá r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❜✐❡♥ ❞✐s✉❡❧t❛✳ ❊♥ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s
✐♥❞✐q✉❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ♥♦ ❡s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❞❡ ❤❡❝❤♦ ✐♥❢❡r✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦
❡stá ❜✐❡♥ ❞✐s✉❡❧t❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s r❡❞❡s ❞❡ t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ❡❧ ✉s♦ ♠ás ❝♦♠ú♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡

P♦✐ss♦♥ ❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ s♦❧✐❝✐t✉❞❡s ❞❡ s❡r✈✐❝✐♦ ❛ ✉♥ s❡r✈✐❞♦r✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r
q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥➸ ❞❡ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s ❛ ✉♥❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧✐t❛ ♦ ❡❧ ♥➸ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❡①✐♦♥❡s ❛ ✉♥ s❡r✈✐❞♦r s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✳

✻✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❤❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ❡st❡ ✉s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❡s ♠✉② ❝♦♠ú♥✱ ❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡
q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ λ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡✱ ♥♦ s❡ ❞❛ ❡♥ ❡st❛s ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ✉♥♦ ❞❡
❧♦s ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ♠ás ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦s ❡♥ t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡s ❡❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛ ❝❛r❣❛❞❛ ✿ ♥♦ ❡s ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡
❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s ❡❧ q✉❡ s❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ❛ ❧❛s ✶✷ ❞❡❧ ♠❡❞✐♦❞í❛ q✉❡ ❛ ❧❛s ✸ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❛ñ❛♥❛✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❤❛❝❡r ❡s ❛♣❧✐❝❛r
✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦s ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s ❛✉♥q✉❡ ♠❡♥♦s ❡s❝r✐t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛✱ ❧❛ ❧❡② ❞❡ ▼✉r♣❤② ✭s✐ ❛❧❣♦
♣✉❡❞❡ ✐r ♠❛❧✱ ♣r❡♣ár❛t❡ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡♥ ❛❧❣✉♥ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ✐rá ♠❛❧ ✮✿ ❛sí✱ ❧❛s r❡❞❡s ❞❡ t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s

s✉❡❧❡♥ ❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛rs❡ ♣❛r❛ s❡r ❝❛♣❛❝❡s ❞❡ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛r ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣❡♦r ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡s❝❡♥❛r✐♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦
❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ s♦❧✐❝✐t✉❞❡s ❡s ❡❧ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛ ❝❛r❣❛❞❛✳

❆♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧✳ ▲❡② ❞❡ ❡✈❡♥t♦s r❛r♦s✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥

❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧✱ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ s❡ r❡♣✐t❡ n ✈❡❝❡s ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡
② q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❤❛② ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♠♦s é①✐t♦✱ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❝♦♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ p✳
❆❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ s❡ r❡♣✐t❡ ✉♥ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ n ❡s ❣r❛♥❞❡ ②
q✉❡ ❡❧ é①✐t♦ ❡s ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ r❛r♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ p ❡s ♣❡q✉❡ñ♦✱ s✐❡♥❞♦ ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛s✱ µ = np✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱
❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X q✉❡ ♠✐❞❡ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ é①✐t♦s s✐❣✉❡ ✭❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡✮ ✉♥❛ P (µ)✳

❊♥ ❡st❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❛❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ ❧❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ s✐ n > 20 ② p < 0.05. ❙✐
n > 100✱ ❧❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❣❡♥❡r❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡①❝❡❧❡♥t❡ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ② ❝✉❛♥❞♦ np < 10✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡
♣❛r❛ ❡s♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ t❡♥❞rí❛ ❜❛st❛♥t❡s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ♣❛r❛ s❡r ❝♦♠♣✉t❛❞❛✱
②❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❡①✐❣✐rí❛✱ ❡♥tr❡ ♦tr♦s ❝á❧❝✉❧♦s✱ ❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ n! ♣❛r❛ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ n ❛❧t♦✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥
❡s ♠✉② út✐❧✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ ❢❛❜r✐❝❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ♠❛q✉✐♥❛r✐❛ ♣❡s❛❞❛ t✐❡♥❡ ✐♥st❛❧❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♠♣♦ ✸✽✹✵
❣❡♥❡r❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❣r❛♥ t❛♠❛ñ♦✳ ❙✐ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❢❛❧❧❡ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ❛ñ♦ ❡♥ ❝✉rs♦
❡s ❞❡ 1200
1
✱ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❡♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡

❛✳ ✹ ❣❡♥❡r❛❞♦r❡s ❢❛❧❧❡♥ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ❛ñ♦ ❡♥ ❝✉rs♦✱

❜✳ ▼ás ✶ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❞♦r ❢❛❧❧❡ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ❛ñ♦ ❡♥ ❝✉rs♦✳

❊❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ♠♦t♦r❡s q✉❡ ❢❛❧❧❛♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛ñ♦ ❡s λ = np = (3840)(1/1200) = 3.2✳

❙❡❛ X ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♠♦t♦r❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❢❛❧❧❛r ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛ñ♦✱ ❝♦♥ ✈❛❧♦r❡s x =
0, 1, 2, 3, ...., 3840✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ X → B (3840, 1/1200) , ♣❡r♦ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ n ❡s ♠✉② ❣r❛♥❞❡ ② p ♠✉② ♣❡q✉❡ñ♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r q✉❡ X → P (3.2)✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱

e−3.2 3.24
P [X = 4] = = 0.178 09
4!

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱
e−3.2 3.20 e−3.2 3.21
P [X > 1] = 1 − P [X = 0, 1] = 1 − − = 0.828 80
0! 1!

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✻✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

0.4
P(1)
0.3

0.2

0.1

0
−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

0.2
P(5)
0.15

0.1

0.05

0
−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

0.2
P(10)
0.15

0.1

0.05

0
−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✸✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✳

✹✳✸✳✸✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s x = 0, 1, 2, ... ❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ p ✭② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → Geo (p)✮✱ ❝♦♥ 0 < p < 1✱ s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❡s
x
f (x) = p (1 − p) , ♣❛r❛ x = 0, 1, 2, ...

❙❡❛ X → Geo (p)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱

1−p
EX =
p
1−p
V arX = .
p2

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦

s❡ r❡♣✐t❡ s✉❝❡s✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❤❛② ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♠♦s
é①✐t♦✱ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❝♦♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ p✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡
❢r❛❝❛s♦s ❤❛st❛ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r é①✐t♦ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ Geo (p)✳

✼✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

0.4
Geo(0.25)
0.3

0.2

0.1

0
−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

0.8
Geo(0.5)
0.6

0.4

0.2

0
−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

0.8
Geo(0.75)
0.6

0.4

0.2

0
−5 0 5 10 15 20 25

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✹✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✐❣✉✐❡♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ q✉❡ ❡♥✈í❛ ❞í❣✐t♦s ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝❛♥❛❧
✐♠♣❡r❢❡❝t♦✱ ❛❤♦r❛ s❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛ ❝✉á♥t♦s ❞í❣✐t♦s s❡ r❡❝✐❜✐rá♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❤❛st❛ q✉❡ ✉♥♦ s❡ ❝r✉❝❡✱ s❛❜✐❡♥❞♦
q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥♦ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ ❧♦ ❤❛❣❛ ❡s ❞❡ ✵✳✷✳

▲❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡rés ❛❤♦r❛ ❡s Y ✿ ♥➸ ❞❡ ❞í❣✐t♦s q✉❡ s❡ r❡❝✐❜❡♥ ❜✐❡♥ ❤❛st❛ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r♦ q✉❡ s❡ ❝r✉③❛✳ ❊st❛
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ Geo(0.2)✳ ●r❛❝✐❛s ❛ ❡st❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s
❞❡❝✐r❧❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡♥✈í❡ ❜✐❡♥ ❞♦s ② q✉❡ ❢❛❧❧❡ ❡❧ t❡r❝❡r♦ ❡s ❞❡

P [Y = 2] = 0.2 × 0.82 = 0.128.

✹✳✸✳✹✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛

❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s x = 0, 1, 2, ... ❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ X s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s a ② p ✭② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → BN (a, p)✮✱ ❝♦♥ a > 0 ② 0 < p < 1✱ s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
♠❛s❛ ❡s
Γ (a + x) x
f (x) = pa (1 − p) ♣❛r❛ x = 0, 1, 2, ...
Γ (a) Γ (x + 1)
´∞
❞♦♥❞❡ Γ (x) = 0
sx−1 e−s ds ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❣❛♠♠❛✳

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛ ❡s ✉♥ ❝❛s♦ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ a = 1✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✼✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❙❡❛ X → BN (a, p)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s

1−p
EX = a
p
1−p
V arX = a 2
p

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ q✉❡

s❡ r❡♣✐t❡ s✉❝❡s✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❞♦♥❞❡ ❤❛② ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♠♦s é①✐t♦✱ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡

❝♦♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ p✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❢r❛❝❛s♦s ❤❛st❛

q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❡❧ ❦✲és✐♠♦ é①✐t♦ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ BN (k, p)✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❛❞❡♠ás✱ ② ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ Γ (r) = (r − 1)! s✐ r ❡s ✉♥

❡♥t❡r♦✱

(k + x − 1)! k x
f (x) = p (1 − p) ♣❛r❛ x = 0, 1, 2, ...
(k − 1)!x!
!
k+x−1 x
= pk (1 − p) ♣❛r❛ x = 0, 1, 2, ...
k−1

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛✳ ❙❡❛♥ X1 , ..., Xn ✈✳❛✳ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s

❛ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐✲
Pn
❜✉❝✐ó♥ Geo (p)✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ X= i=1 Xi s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ BN (n, p)✳ ❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♦❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦

❡s ✉♥ ❡♥t❡r♦✳

❛ P♦❞❡♠♦s q✉❡❞❛r♥♦s ♣♦r ❛❤♦r❛ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✈✳❛✳ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s♦♥ ❛q✉❡❧❧❛s t❛❧❡s q✉❡ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ ❞❡

❡❧❧❛s ♥♦ ❛❢❡❝t❛ ❛❧ r❡st♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥t✐♥✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ tr❛♥s♠✐s✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞í❣✐t♦s ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ✉♥ s✐st❡♠❛ ✐♠♣❡r❢❡❝✲

t♦✱ ➽❝✉á♥t♦s ❞í❣✐t♦s s❡ tr❛♥s♠✐t✐rá♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❤❛st❛ q✉❡ ❞♦s ❧♦ ❤❛❣❛♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡❄ ❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦

t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❛s✉♠✐r q✉❡ ♥♦ ❤❛② ✉♥❛ r❡s♣✉❡st❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡st♦✱ ♣❡r♦ sí ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡

♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❛②✉❞❡ ❛ t♦♠❛r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥❡s✳

❙❡❛ Z✿ ♥➸ ❞❡ ❞í❣✐t♦s q✉❡ s❡ r❡❝✐❜❡♥ ❜✐❡♥ ❤❛st❛ q✉❡ ❞♦s s❡ ❝r✉③❛♥✳ ❊st❛ ✈✳❛✳ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

BN (2, 0.2)✳ ●r❛❝✐❛s ❛ ❡st❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r❧❡ ❛❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡

q✉❡ s❡ ❧❡ ❝r✉❝❡♥ ✷ ❞í❣✐t♦s ❝♦♥ ✶✵ ♦ ♠❡♥♦s ❡♥✈í♦s ❡s

8 8
X X (2 + z − 1)!
P [Z ≤ 8] = P [Z = z] = 0.22 0.8z = 0.62
z=0 z=0
(2 − 1)!z!

✼✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

0.1 0.06
BN(2.5,0.25) BN(5,0.25)

0.04
0.05
0.02

0 0
−10 0 10 20 30 40 −10 0 10 20 30 40

0.4 0.2
BN(2.5,0.5) BN(5,0.5)
0.3 0.15

0.2 0.1

0.1 0.05

0 0
−10 0 10 20 30 40 −10 0 10 20 30 40

0.8 0.4
BN(2.5,0.75) BN(5,0.75)
0.6 0.3

0.4 0.2

0.2 0.1

0 0
−10 0 10 20 30 40 −10 0 10 20 30 40

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✺✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧❡s ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛s✳

✹✳✹✳ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛

✹✳✹✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥

❯♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ s✐ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r só❧♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡♥❝❡rr❛rs❡ ❡♥
✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✱ ❢♦r♠❛♥❞♦✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ✐♥✜♥✐t♦ ♥♦ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✿

▲❛ t❡♥s✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❢r❛❝t✉r❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ❛s❢❛❧t♦✳

❊❧ ❣r♦s♦r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❧á♠✐♥❛ ❞❡ ❛❧✉♠✐♥✐♦✳

❊❧ ♣❍ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ❧❧✉✈✐❛✳

▲❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ t❡❧❡❢ó♥✐❝❛✳

✹✳✹✳✷✳ ❍✐st♦❣r❛♠❛
❍❛② ✉♥❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s ② ❧❛s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✿ ❡♥ ❧❛s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s✱ ❛❧
♠❡♥♦s✱ ♥✉♠❡r❛r ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ② ❝♦♥t❛r ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s q✉❡ s❛❧❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛❧♦r ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝❛rá❝t❡r q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ♥ú♠❡r♦s r❡❛❧❡s✱ ♣♦r ♠✉② ❣r❛♥❞❡ q✉❡ ❢✉❡r❛ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✼✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

Histograma con N=100 datos Histograma con N=1000 datos

0.8
0.8

0.6
0.6
Densidad

Densidad

0.4
0.4

0.2
0.2
0.0

0.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 0 2 4 6 8

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✻✿ ❍✐st♦❣r❛♠❛s✳

q✉❡ t♦♠ár❛♠♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ ❥❛♠ás t❡♥❞rí❛♠♦s ♠ás ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ♣✉♥t♦s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡
t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✶ ✳
P♦r ❡s❛ r❛③ó♥✱ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡✜♥✐r ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛✱ ♣r❡❝✐s❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣♦rq✉❡
❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ s❛❜❡♠♦s✱ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐ó♥ ❛♥á❧♦❣❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡
❛♣r♦①✐♠❛r ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✿ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ♣❛r❛ ✐❧✉str❛r ❡st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥✿ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❘ s✐♠✉❧❛♠♦s ❞♦s ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡
✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ✉♥❛ ❝♦♥ N = 100 ✈❛❧♦r❡s ② ♦tr❛ ❝♦♥ N = 1000✳ ❍✐st♦❣r❛♠❛s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❛ ❡st❛s ♠✉❡str❛s✱ ❝♦♥
✶✵ ② ✸✶ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✻✳ ❚❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ár❡❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❜❛rr❛s
r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ r❡❧❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❛♥ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s✐✈♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❡♥ ❡st♦s
❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r q✉❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ t♦♠❛ ♠❛②♦r✐t❛r✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❝❡r❝❛♥♦s ❛ ❝❡r♦❀ t❛♥t♦ ♠ás ❧❡❥❛♥♦ ❛❧
❝❡r♦ ❡s ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r✱ ♠❡♥♦s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ ♣❛r❡❝❡ s❡r✳ ❊st❡ ❞❡s❝❡♥s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ❛❞❡♠ás✱ ♠✉② ❛❝✉s❛❞♦✱ ❝❛s✐
❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✳
P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ♦❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❛❧ ♣❛s❛r ❞❡ ✶✵✵ ❞❛t♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛ ✶✵✵✵ ❞❛t♦s✱ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❡s❜♦③❛ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛
❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ r❡❛❧ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ r❡❛❧✳ ❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r ❡s N ♠ás s❡ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛♥ ❧♦s ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛s ❛ ❧❛
❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✐r ✈✐❡♥❞♦ ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ✉t✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡s❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛
❞❡❧ ❈á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✳
❙✐ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✻ q✉✐s✐ér❛♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡
❛❧❣✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s q✉❡ ❞❡✜♥❡♥ ❡❧ ❣rá✜❝♦✱ ❧❛ r❡s♣✉❡st❛ s❡rí❛ ❡❧ ár❡❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜❛rr❛ s♦❜r❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✳ ❙✐
q✉✐s✐ér❛♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✱ s✉♠❛rí❛♠♦s ❧❛s ár❡❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❜❛rr❛s✳
❊❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❡s q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡ ♣❛r❡③❝❛♥ ❛ ❧❛s ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s
❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡❛ ❣r❛♥❞❡✱ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r✱ ♠❡❥♦r✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ t❡♥❞rí❛♠♦s ✉♥
✶ ❊st♦ s✉❝❡❞❡rí❛ s✐❡♠♣r❡ q✉❡ t♦♠❡♠♦s ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❞❡❝✐♠❛❧❡s ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛❧♦r✳

✼✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ♠ás ♣❛r❡❝✐❞♦ ❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✻✳ ❊♥ é❧✱ ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦✱ s✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r

P [a < X < b] ,

❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s s✉♠❛r ❧❛s ár❡❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❜❛rr❛s q✉❡ ❢♦r♠❛♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ (a, b)✱ s✐ ❡s q✉❡ ❤❛② ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s q✉❡ ❢♦r♠❛♥✱
❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ (a, b) .
P❡r♦ s✐ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡s ❧♦ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❛♠♣❧✐♦ ♣❛r❛ ♣♦❞❡r ♣❛s❛r ❛❧ ❧í♠✐t❡ ② ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r ✉♥❛
❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ r❡❛❧ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ r❡❛❧ f (x) q✉❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ❧í♥❡❛ q✉❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ✉♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡❧ t✐♣♦ P [a < X < b] s✉♠❛♥❞♦ ❧❛s ár❡❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❜❛rr❛s ❞❡ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ✐♥✜♥✐t❡s✐♠❛❧❡s q✉❡ ❢♦r♠❛♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦
(a, b) ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛ ✐♥t❡❣r❛r ❞✐❝❤❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ (a, b)✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱
ˆ b
P [a < X < b] = f (x) dx.
a

✹✳✹✳✸✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞

❉❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ X ✱ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ X ❡s ❛q✉❡❧❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ f (x) t❛❧
q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛ a, b ∈ R ♦ a, b = ±∞✱
ˆ b
P [a < X < b] = f (x) dx
a

◆♦t❛✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❛ ❡❢❡❝t♦s ❞❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧❡s ✉♥ ♣✉♥t♦ ♥♦ ❛❢❡❝t❛ ❛❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧✱ s✐
a, b ∈ R✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡
ˆ b
P [a < X < b] = f (x) ,
a
ˆ b
P [a ≤ X < b] = f (x) ,
a
ˆ b
P [a < X ≤ b] = f (x) ,
a
ˆ b
P [a ≤ X ≤ b] = f (x) .
a

❊st❡ ❤❡❝❤♦ ♣♦♥❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ q✉❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡♥
♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ˆ x0
P [X = x0 ] = f (x) dx = 0,
x0

♣❡r♦ sí t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ f (x0 )✳ ❊st❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ✐♥✜♥✐t❡s✐♠❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❧r❡❞❡❞♦r ❞❡ x0 ✳ ❆sí✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ P [X = x0 ] = 0✱ s✐ f (x0 ) t♦♠❛
✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❛❧t♦✱ q✉❡rrá ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❧r❡❞❡❞♦r ❞❡ x0 s♦♥ ♠✉② ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s✳

❉❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ X ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ f (x)✿

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✼✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✶✳ f (x) ≥ 0 ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ x ∈ R.

´∞
✷✳ −∞
f (x) = 1.

✸✳ ❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ♥ú♠❡r♦s r❡❛❧❡s✱ B ✱

ˆ
P [X ∈ B] = f (x) dx.
B

✹✳✹✳✹✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

❙❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ X ❝♦♠♦

ˆ x
F (x) = P [X ≤ x] = f (t) dt.
−∞

❙✐ X ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ f (x) ② ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ F (x)✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s

✶✳ lı́mx→−∞ F (x) = 0.

✷✳ lı́mx→∞ F (x) = 1.

✸✳ F ❡s ❝r❡❝✐❡♥t❡✳

✹✳ F ❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✳

✺✳ f (x) = F ′ (x) .

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞ér❡s❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ X, ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ f (x) = ce−a|x| .
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ c, ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ② P [X ≥ 0]✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱
ˆ ∞ ˆ 0 ˆ ∞
1= f (x) dx = f (x) dx + f (x) dx
−∞ −∞ 0
ˆ 0 ∞
2c
ˆ
= c exp (ax) dx + c exp (−ax) dx = ,
−∞ 0 a

❧✉❡❣♦ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ q✉❡ c = a2 ✳

P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ (
x 1 ax
2e s✐ x < 0
ˆ
F (x) = f (t) dt =
−∞
1
2 +
1−e−ax
2 s✐ x ≥ 0
´∞
P♦r ú❧t✐♠♦✱ P [X ≥ 0] = 0
f (x) dx = 21 .
▲❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ② ❧❛ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ♣❛r❛ a = 1✱ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✼✳

✼✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✼✿ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ✭✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✮ ② ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✭❞❡r❡❝❤❛✮✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

0 s✐ x < 0



F (x) = x s✐ 0 ≤ x < 1 .
1 s✐ x ≥ 1



❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❡s

(
′ 1 s✐ 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
f (x) = F (x) =
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

●rá✜❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❛♠❜❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✽✳ ❊♥ ❡st❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣✉♥t♦s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧❛
♠✐s♠❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞✱ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡
[0, 1] , t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳

✹✳✹✳✺✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛

❆❧ ✐❣✉❛❧ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ② ❛❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦
❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✱ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ✐♥❞✐st✐♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛
♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ t❛♠❜✐é♥ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❡rs✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳
❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X ② ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s✉②❛ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ N, (x1 , ..., xN ) , ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❝♦♠♦

número de valores ≤ x
SN (x) = .
N

❊st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛rs❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s✱

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✼✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✽✿ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ✭✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✮ ② ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✭❞❡r❡❝❤❛✮✳

❧❛ ❝✉r✈❛ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ s❡ ♣❛r❡❝❡rá ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳ ❉✐❝❤♦ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱

lı́m SN (x) = F (x) ,

N →∞

♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ x✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛❜❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ❝✉②❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐✲
❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s
0 s✐ x < 0



F (x) = x s✐ x ∈ [0, 1] .
1 s✐ x > 1



❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✾ ❤❡♠♦s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞♦ ❞♦s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ s❡♥❞❛s ♠✉❡str❛s
❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ N = 10 ✭✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✮ ② N = 100 ✭❞❡r❡❝❤❛✮✳
❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ✭N ✮✱ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ s❡
♣❛r❡❝❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❡③ ♠ás ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳

✹✳✹✳✻✳ ▼❡❞✐❛ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ f (x)✳ ❙❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♦ ❡s♣❡r❛♥③❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ❝♦♠♦
ˆ ∞
EX = x × f (x)dx✳
−∞

▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ❡s✱ ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦✱ ❧❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❛❧r❡❞❡❞♦r ❞❡❧ q✉❡ s❡
❞❛♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❖tr❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❧❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r ❡s♣❡r❛❞♦✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❞❡ q✉❡

✼✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✾✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛s✳

❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐ s❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ♠ás ❡s♣❡r❛♥③❛s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞

(
1
x2 −x1 s✐ x1 ≤ x ≤ x2
fX (x) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛✿

x2
1
ˆ
EX = x· · dx
x1 x 2 − x1
 2 x2
1 x 1 x2 − x21
= · = · 2
x2 − x1 2 x1 2 x2 − x1
1 (x2 − x1 ) · (x2 + x1 ) 1
= · = (x1 + x2 ) ,
2 x2 − x1 2

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ [x1 , x2 ]✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞

(
λe−λx s✐ x≥0
fX (x) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✼✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛✿
ˆ ∞
EX = x · λ · e−λx · dx
0

u=x
dv = λ · e−λx · dx  ∞
ˆ ∞
= −x · e−λx 0 + e−λx · dx
0
 ∞
1 −λx 1
=0+ − e = .
λ 0 λ

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐r ❛❤♦r❛ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ q✉❡ ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ s❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥❛
♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❡♥ t♦r♥♦ ❛ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

h i
❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ X ✳ ❙❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✉ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝♦♠♦ V ar [X] = E (X − EX)2 .

❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❡s ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛❧ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

▲❛ r❛í③ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ σ = V ar [X] s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ✳

p
❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛

❈♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✱ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥ ♠ét♦❞♦ ♠ás ❝ó♠♦❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳
❊♥ ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦✱
h i h i
2 2
V ar [X] = E (X − EX) = E X 2 − 2X · EX + (EX)
2 2
= E X 2 − 2 · EX · EX + (EX) = E X 2 − (EX) .
   

❈♦♠♦ s❡ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❜❛ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s ❧❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ q✉❡ ♠✐❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐st❛♥❝✐❛

❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ést❛✳ ❙✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ✉♥❛ ❛❧t❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡♥ t♦r♥♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛❀ ② ✈✐❝❡✈❡rs❛✱ s✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s ❣r❛♥❞❡✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ❛❧t❛ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ❞❡
❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞

(
1
x2 −x1 s✐ x1 ≤ x ≤ x2
fX (x) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

x2
1 1 x32 − x31
ˆ
2
x2 ·
 
E X = · dx =
x1 x2 − x1 3 x2 − x1
x2 + x1 x2 + x21
= 2 .
3

✽✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❆♥t❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡ ❤❛❜í❛♠♦s ❞❡♠♦str❛❞♦ q✉❡

x1 + x2
EX = ,
2

♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱

V ar [X] = E X 2 − EX 2
 

2 2
x22 + x1 x2 + x21 (x1 + x2 ) (x2 − x1 )
= − = .
3 4 12

◆♦t❛✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳

Pr♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛s ♠❡♥t❡s ♠ás ❞❡s♣✐❡rt❛s ②❛ s❡ ❤❛②❛♥ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛❞♦ q✉é r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❤❛② ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ✭❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✮ ② ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ❞❡✜♥✐❞❛s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦
❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❉❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛✳
▲❛ r❡s♣✉❡st❛ ❧❛ ✈❡r❡♠♦s ♠ás ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡✱ ♣❡r♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✐r ❛✈❛♥③❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ♣❛r❡❝✐❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ q✉❡ s❡
❞❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s ② ❧❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛s❛ ♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛s ② ❧❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✳
❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❡♥ ♦tr❛s ♣❛❧❛❜r❛s✱ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛
② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡rá♥ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱
❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡♥ s❡r t❛♥t♦ ♠❡❥♦r❡s ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r s❡❛ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❈♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❝❛♠❜✐♦s ❞❡ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ② ❡s❝❛❧❛✳

❯♥ ❝❛♠❜✐♦ ❞❡ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❡♥ s✉♠❛r ♦ r❡st❛r ✉♥❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ ❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s
❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ✉♥ ❝❛♠❜✐♦ ❞❡ ❡s❝❛❧❛ s✉♣♦♥❡ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧✐❝❛r ♣♦r ✉♥ ❢❛❝t♦r ❞✐❝❤♦s ✈❛❧r♦❡s✳ ❊♥
❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ s✐ X ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛✱ ✉♥ ❝❛♠❜✐♦ ❞❡ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ② ❡s❝❛❧❛ s✉♣♦♥❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r aX + b✳
❨❛ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❉❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛ ❡❧ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛
♠✉❡str❛❧ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❡st♦s ❝❛♠❜✐♦s ❞❡ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ② ❡s❝❛❧❛✳ ❆❤♦r❛ ♥♦s r❡❢❡r✐♠♦s ❛q✉í ❛❧ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡
s✉s ❤♦♠ó❧♦❣♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s✳ ❊st❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❡s ♠✉② út✐❧ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ② ❡s ✈á❧✐❞♦ t❛♥t♦ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s ❝♦♠♦ ♣❛r❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✳ ❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ X ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ② a, b ∈ R✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s

E [aX + b] = aE [X] + b
V ar [aX + b] = a2 V arX

◆♦t❛✳ ❙✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ q✉❡ s♦♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s s✐♥
q✉❡ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s ♣✉❡❞❛ ✐♥✢✉✐r s♦❜r❡ ❧❛s ♦tr❛s✱ ❡s ♠✉② út✐❧ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛rs❡ ❡♥ ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s ♣♦r ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ t♦❞❛s ❡❧❧❛s✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s X1 , ..., Xn ✱ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s ♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✳ P✉❡s ❜✐❡♥✱ s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡
❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❡s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ② q✉❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❡s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s❀

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✽✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱

E [X1 + ... + Xn ] = EX1 + ... + EXn

V ar [X1 + ... + Xn ] = V arX1 + ... + V arXn

✹✳✺✳ ▼♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝♦♥✲

t✐♥✉❛s

❈♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥ ❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♠ás ✉s✉❛❧❡s ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✳

❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ✐♥s✐st✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ✉t✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡st♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s r❛❞✐❝❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ✈❛♥ ❛ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r♥♦s ❧❛ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ❡♥
q✉❡ s❡ r❡♣❛rt❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳

✹✳✺✳✶✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ✭❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✮

❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ X q✉❡ só❧♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ (x1 , x2 ) s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❡♥tr❡ x1 ② x2 ✭② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → U (x1 , x2 )✮ s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❡s

(
1
x2 −x1 s✐ x1 < x < x 2
f (x) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❙❡❛ X → U (x1 , x2 )✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s

x1 + x2
EX =
2
2
(x2 − x1 )
V arX = .
12

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡✳ ❙✐ X ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ t❛❧ q✉❡ ❞♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛ ❡♥tr❡
x1 ② x2 ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞✱ t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s X → U (x1 , x2 ) .

❊❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ (0, 1) ; ✈❛❧♦r❡s s✐♠✉❧❛❞♦s ❞❡
❡st❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ s♦♥ ❧♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛♥ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♦r❞❡♥ ❘◆❉ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛❞♦r❛✳

✹✳✺✳✷✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧

❊st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ s✉❡❧❡ s❡r ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❛q✉❡❧❧♦s ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s q✉❡ ♠✐❞❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ q✉❡ tr❛♥s❝✉rr❡ ❡♥tr❡
q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡♥ ❞♦s s✉❝❡s♦s✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ ♣✉❡st❛ ❡♥ ♠❛r❝❤❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝✐❡rt❛ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ② s✉ ❢❛❧❧♦ ♦ ❡❧
t✐❡♠♣♦ q✉❡ tr❛♥s❝✉rr❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s ❝♦♥s❡❝✉t✐✈❛s ❛ ✉♥❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧✐t❛✳

✽✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ✈❛❧♦r❡s x ≥ 0✳ ❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ X s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧
❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ ✭② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → exp (µ)✮ s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞

 −λx
λe s✐ x ≥ 0
f (x) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s

1 − e−λx s✐ x ≥ 0

F (x) = P [X ≤ x] = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❙❡❛ X → exp (λ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱

1
EX =
λ
1
V arX = 2 .
λ

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✳ ❙❡❛ X → P (λ) ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦
❞❡ é①✐t♦s ❡♥ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♣❡r✐♦❞♦ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ q✉❡ ♣❛s❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s é①✐t♦s ❝♦♥s❡❝✉t✐✈♦s✱
T✱ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ q✉❡ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ exp (λ)✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦ r❛❞✐❛❝t✐✈♦ ❡♠✐t❡ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s s❡❣ú♥ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡
✶✺ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s ♣♦r ♠✐♥✉t♦✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ T✱ q✉❡ tr❛♥s❝✉rr❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ ❡♠✐s✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛ ②
❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ = 15 ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s ♣♦r ♠✐♥✉t♦✳ ❊st❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦
♥♦s ♣❡r♠✐t❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡♥tr❡ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛ ② ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛ ♣❛s❡♥ ♠ás ❞❡ ✶✵
s❡❣✉♥❞♦s✱ ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r ˆ ∞
P [T > 10/60] = 15e−15t dt = e−15/6 .
1/6

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❘❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❤❛❜í❛♠♦s ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ s❡ s♦❧í❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❡♥ ❡❧
❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s r❡❞❡s ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♠♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ s♦❧✐❝✐t✉❞❡s ❛ ✉♥ s❡r✈✐❞♦r ♣♦r
✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✳ ❙❡❣ú♥ ❡st❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ✈❡r✱ ❡s♦ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦
q✉❡ ♣❛s❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s s♦❧✐❝✐t✉❞❡s ❛ ✉♥ s❡r✈✐❞♦r s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✳

P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❡①✐♦♥❡s ❛ ✉♥ s❡r✈✐❞♦r ❋❚P s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✷✳✺ ❝♦♥❡①✐♦♥❡s ❛ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛r♥♦s ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ q✉❡ ♣❛s❡♥ ♠ás ❞❡ ❞♦s ❤♦r❛s s✐♥ q✉❡ s❡ ♣r♦❞✉③❝❛ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ❝♦♥❡①✐ó♥✳ ❚❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦
❡♥tr❡ ❝♦♥❡①✐♦♥❡s s❡❣✉✐rí❛ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ✷✳✺✱ ❡s❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ s❡rí❛

ˆ ∞
P [T > 2] = 2.5e−2.5x dx = e−5
2

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✽✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

♦ ❜✐❡♥
P [T > 2] = 1 − P [T ≤ 2] = 1 − FT (2) = 1 − 1 − e−2.5×2 = e−5 .

❍❛② ✉♥❛ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡ ② ❝✉r✐♦s❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✱ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♥♦
♠❡♠♦r✐❛✳ ❙✐ X ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ exp(λ) ② t ② s s♦♥ ❞♦s ♥ú♠❡r♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✿

P [X > t + s|X > s] = P [X > t]

▲❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❞❡♠♦str❛r❧♦ ❡s ♠✉② s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛✿

P [X > t + s ∩ X > s] P [X > t + s]

P [X > t + s|X > s] = =
P [X > s] P [X > s]
e−λ(s+t)
= = e−λt = P [X > t]
e−λs

❱❛♠♦s ❛ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡r ❧❛ tr❛s❝❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ✈✐❞❛✱ T ✱ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝✐r❝✉✐t♦✱ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞♦s ❛ñ♦s✳
❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❝✐r❝✉✐t♦ ❞✉r❡ ♠ás ❞❡ tr❡s ❛ñ♦s✿
1
P [T > 3] = e− 2 3

❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ ❝✐r❝✉✐t♦ ❧❧❡✈❛ ✺ ❛ñ♦s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛♥❞♦✱ ② q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❛ú♥
❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡ ✸ ❛ñ♦s ♠ás✳ ❙❡❣ú♥ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♥♦ ♠❡♠♦r✐❛✱ ❡s❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ q✉❡ s✐ ❡❧ ❝✐r❝✉✐t♦
❛❝❛❜❛r❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♠❡♥③❛r ❛ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛r✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱
1
P [T > 3 + 5|T > 5] = P [T > 3] = e− 2 3

❉❡s❞❡ ✉♥ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝♦✱ ♣❛r❡❝❡ ♣♦❝♦ ❝r❡✐❜❧❡✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧♦s ✺ ❛ñ♦s ♣r❡✈✐♦s ❞❡
❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡❜❡♥ ❤❛❜❡r ❛❢❡❝t❛❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ✜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❝✐r❝✉✐t♦✱ ♣❡r♦ s✐ ❝r❡❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧
t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ✈✐❞❛ ❞❡ ést❡ ❡s ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❛s✉♠✐r ❡st❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞✳

✹✳✺✳✸✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ●❛♠♠❛

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ✈❛❧♦r❡s x ≥ 0✳ ❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ X s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ●❛♠♠❛ ❞❡
♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s a ② λ ✭② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → Gamma (a, λ)✮ s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❡s
a−1
λ (λx) e−λx
f (x) = u (x) ,
Γ (a)
´∞
❞♦♥❞❡ Γ (x) = 0
sx−1 e−s ds ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❣❛♠♠❛✳

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❡♥ q✉❡ a = 1 s❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✳

✽✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

1
exp(1)

0.5

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

0.2
exp(5)
0.15

0.1

0.05

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

0.1
exp(10)

0.05

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✵✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧❡s✳

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ❤❛② ✉♥ ❝❛s♦ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡✳ ❙✐ a = n✱ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ♥❛t✉r❛❧✱ ❧❛

❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ ❊r❧❛♥❣✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤❛❝❡ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡ ❡s q✉❡ ❡st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ ❝♦♠♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦

❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ q✉❡ ♣❛s❛ ❡♥tr❡ n ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s t❡❧❡❢ó♥✐❝❛s✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✳

❖tr♦ ❝❛s♦ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❧♦ ❝♦♥st✐t✉②❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ χ2 ❝♦♥ r ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✱ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❡s ♠ás q✉❡ ✉♥❛
r 1


Gamma 2, 2 ✳ ❊st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♣❛r❛ ❡✈❛❧✉❛r ❧❛ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❛ ❥✉st❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

t❡ór✐❝❛ ❛ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✈❡r❡♠♦s ♠ás ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡✳

❙❡❛ X → Gamma (a, λ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s

a
EX =
λ
a
V arX = 2 .
λ

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ●❛♠♠❛✳ ❙❡❛ X → P (λ) ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡

é①✐t♦s ❡♥ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♣❡r✐♦❞♦ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ q✉❡ ♣❛s❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ k−és✐♠♦ é①✐t♦ ② ❡❧

k + r✱ T ✱ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ q✉❡ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ Gamma (r, λ)✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ r ❡s ✉♥ ❡♥t❡r♦✱ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ✉♥❛ Erlang (r, λ)✳

❈❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ●❛♠♠❛✳ ❙❡❛♥ X1 , ..., Xn ✈✳❛✳ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ exp (λ)✳
Pn
❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ X= i=1 Xi s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ Gamma (n, λ)✳ ❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♦❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❡s ✉♥ ❡♥t❡r♦✱
❧✉❡❣♦ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❊r❧❛♥❣✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✽✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20

Gamma(2.5,1) Gamma(5,1)

0.20
0.10
0.00
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04

0.06

Gamma(2.5,0.2)
0.04
0.02

Gamma(5,0.2)
0.00

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30
0.030

0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015

0.020
0.010

Gamma(2.5,0.1) Gamma(5,0.1)
0.000

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✶✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ●❛♠♠❛

✹✳✺✳✹✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ✈❛❧♦r r❡❛❧✳ ❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ X s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧
♦ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✱ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s µ ② σ ✭② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → N (µ, σ)✮, s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❡s

" #
2
1 (x − µ)
f (x) = √ exp − ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ x ∈ R.
2πσ 2 2σ 2

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❡s ❧❛ ú♥✐❝❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦ ❤❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛ q✉❡ t♦♠❛ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❡♥tr❡ −∞ ②
+∞✳
❙❡❛ X → N (µ, σ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s

EX = µ
V arX = σ 2 .

❊❧ ♣r♦♣✐♦ ♥♦♠❜r❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ s✉ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡ ✉s♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r á♠❜✐t♦ ❝✐❡♥tí✜❝♦ ② t❡❝♥♦❧ó❣✐❝♦✳
❊st❡ ✉s♦ t❛♥ ❡①t❡♥❞✐❞♦ s❡ ❥✉st✐✜❝❛ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ♦ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❝✐❡rt♦s ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s t✐❡♥❞❡♥ ❛
♣❛r❡❝❡rs❡ ❡♥ s✉ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❛ ❡st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ♠✉❝❤❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s ♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥
✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝✉②❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ t✐❡♥❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❝❛♠♣❛♥❛✳ ❊st♦✱ ❛ s✉ ✈❡③✱ ❡s ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ q✉❡ ❤❛② ♠✉❝❤❛s
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ♥❛t✉r❛❧❡s ❝✉②❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s s♦♥ ❝♦♠♣❛t✐❜❧❡s ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ q✉❡
s✉♣♦♥❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧✿

❈❛r❛❝t❡r❡s ♠♦r❢♦❧ó❣✐❝♦s ❞❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ✭♣❡rs♦♥❛s✱ ❛♥✐♠❛❧❡s✱ ♣❧❛♥t❛s✱ ✳✳✳✮ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ ✭t❛❧❧❛s✱ ♣❡s♦s✱
❡♥✈❡r❣❛❞✉r❛s✱ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦s✱ ♣❡rí♠❡tr♦s✱ ✳✳✳✮✳

✽✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

0.4 0.1
N(0,1) N(0,4)
0.3

0.2 0.05

0.1

0 0
−10 −5 0 5 10 −10 −5 0 5 10

0.4 0.1
N(1,1) N(1,4)
0.3

0.2 0.05

0.1

0 0
−10 −5 0 5 10 −10 −5 0 5 10

0.4 0.1
N(−1,1) N(−1,4)
0.3

0.2 0.05

0.1

0 0
−10 −5 0 5 10 −10 −5 0 5 10

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✷✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧

❈❛r❛❝t❡r❡s ✜s✐♦❧ó❣✐❝♦s ✭❡❢❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❞♦s✐s ❞❡ ✉♥ ❢ár♠❛❝♦✱ ♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❜♦♥♦✮✳

❈❛r❛❝t❡r❡s s♦❝✐♦❧ó❣✐❝♦s ✭❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ❞❡ ❝✐❡rt♦ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ♣♦r ✉♥ ♠✐s♠♦ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s✱ ♣✉♥t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s
❞❡ ❡①❛♠❡♥✳✳✳✮✳

❈❛r❛❝t❡r❡s ♣s✐❝♦❧ó❣✐❝♦s ✭❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ✐♥t❡❧❡❝t✉❛❧✱ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❛❞❛♣t❛❝✐ó♥ ❛ ✉♥ ♠❡❞✐♦✱ ✳✳✳✮✳

❊rr♦r❡s ❝♦♠❡t✐❞♦s ❛❧ ♠❡❞✐r ❝✐❡rt❛s ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡s✳

❱❛❧♦r❡s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳

❖tr❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♦ ❧❛ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ s♦♥ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛s ♣♦r ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧✱ ✳✳✳

❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✈❡r❡♠♦s ❡♥s❡❣✉✐❞❛✱ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ q✉❡ s❡ ♦❜t❡♥❣❛ ❝♦♠♦ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ♠✉❝❤♦s ❢❛❝t♦r❡s
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦✳
❊①✐st❡ ♦tr❛ r❛③ó♥ ♠ás ♣r❛❣♠át✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ✉s♦ t❛♥ ❡①t❡♥❞✐❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✿ s✉s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s
♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛s s♦♥✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✐r❡♠♦s ✈✐❡♥❞♦✱ ❝❛s✐ ✐♥♠❡❥♦r❛❜❧❡s✳ ❊s♦ ❝♦♥❞✉❝❡ ❛ q✉❡ ❝❛s✐ s✐❡♠♣r❡ s❡ tr❛t❡ ❞❡ ❢♦r③❛r ❛❧
♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❝♦♠♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ❧♦ ❝✉❛❧✱ ❡♥ ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s ♣✉❡❞❡ ❝♦♥❞✉❝✐r ❛ ❡rr♦r❡s
✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s ❡♥ ❧❛s ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣rá❝t✐❝❛s✳ ▲♦ ❝✐❡rt♦ ❡s q✉❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ s♦♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡s ❧❛s ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❧❛s q✉❡
❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♥♦ s✐❣✉❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛r q✉é ❢❛❝t♦r❡s s♦♥ ❧♦s
q✉❡ ♣r♦✈♦❝❛♥ ❧❛ ♣ér❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞ ②✱ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛s♦✱ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❛♣❧✐❝❛rs❡ té❝♥✐❝❛s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛s q✉❡ ♥♦
r❡q✉✐❡r❛♥ ❞❡ ❡s❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✽✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❚✐♣✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳ ❙❡❛ X → N (µ, σ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱

X −µ
Z= → N (0, 1) ,
σ

♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ q✉❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ t✐♣✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

❊st❛ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ♠✉② ✉s✉❛❧✳ ❉❛❞❛s ❧❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞

❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✱ ♥♦ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❡①❛❝t❛✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❧❛s ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧❡s

❞❡❧ t✐♣♦
" #
b 2
1 (x − µ)
ˆ
√ exp − dx
a 2πσ 2 2σ 2

♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r ❡①♣r❡s❛❞❛s ❡♥ tér♠✐♥♦s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ✉s✉❛❧❡s✱ ② só❧♦ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛rs❡ ♣♦r ♠ét♦❞♦s ♥✉✲

♠ér✐❝♦s✳ ◆♦ ♦❜st❛♥t❡✱ ❡①✐st❡♥ t❛❜❧❛s ❞♦♥❞❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ♠✉❧t✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛

❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ N (0, 1) ② ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ♦tr❛s t❛♥t❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✱ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞
❞❡ t✐♣✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ X → N (µ, σ) ❡sté ❡♥

❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ [a, b]✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s

     
a−µ X −µ b−µ b−µ a−µ
P [a ≤ X ≤ b] = P ≤ ≤ = FZ − FZ ,
σ σ σ σ σ

❞♦♥❞❡ FZ (·) ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ Z → N (0, 1)✱ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡✈❛❧✉❛rs❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ✉s♦

❞❡ t❛❜❧❛s✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r❧♦ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❛rtí❝✉❧♦ ✏❮♥❞✐❝❡s ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♣❡s♦✲t❛❧❧❛ ❝♦♠♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ♠❛s❛ ♠✉s❝✉❧❛r ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛❞✉❧t♦
❞❡❧ s❡①♦ ♠❛s❝✉❧✐♥♦✑ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡✈✐st❛ ❘❡✈✐st❛ ❈✉❜❛♥❛ ❆❧✐♠❡♥t✳ ◆✉tr✳ ✭✶✾✾✽❀✶✷✭✷✮✿✾✶✲✺✮ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ✉♥

❝♦❧❡❝t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r♦♥❡s ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♣❡s♦ ❝✉②❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❡stá♥❞❛r s♦♥✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✻✺✳✻ ② ✶✶✳✼✳

✶✳ ➽❈ó♠♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s✱ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛s t❛❜❧❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ N (0, 1)✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡

✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡s♦s ✈❛r♦♥❡s ♣❡s❡ ♠ás ❞❡ ✼✻✳✷✺ ❦✐❧♦s❄

 
X − 65.6 76.25 − 65.6
P [X > 76.25] = P >
11.7 11.7
= P [Z > 0.91] = 1 − P [Z < 0.91] = 1 − 0.819

✷✳ ➽❨ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♣❡s❡ ♠❡♥♦s ❞❡ ✻✵ ❦✐❧♦s❄

 
X − 65.6 60 − 65.6
P [X < 60] = P <
11.7 11.7
= P [Z < −0.48] = P [Z > 0.48]
= 1 − P [Z < 0.48] = 1 − 0.684

✸✳ ➽❨ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♣❡s❡ ❡♥tr❡ ✻✵ ② ✼✻✳✷✺ ❦✐❧♦s❄

P [60 < X < 76.25] = P [X < 76.25] − P [X < 60] = 0.819 − (1 − 0.684)

✽✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✸✿ ❇úsq✉❡❞❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❡♥ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ N (0, 1)✳ ❱❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❞❡
✵✳✾✶

✹✳ ➽❈✉á♥t♦ ♣❡s❛rá ❛q✉❡❧ ✈❛ró♥ t❛❧ q✉❡ ✉♥ ✺ ✪ ❞❡ ✈❛r♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❡s❡ ❝♦❧❡❝t✐✈♦ ♣❡s❛♥ ♠ás q✉❡ é❧❄ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱
➽❝✉á❧ s❡rá ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ x t❛❧ q✉❡ P [X > x] = 0.05 ♦✱ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ P [X < x] = 0.95✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡
   
X − 65.6 x − 65.6 x − 65.6
P [X < x] = P < =P Z<
11.7 11.7 11.7

11.7 t❛❧ q✉❡ P [Z < z] = 0.95✱ ✶✳✻✹✺ ✭❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡✮✱

t❛♥ só❧♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❜✉s❝❛r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r z = x−65.6
❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦✱ x = 65.6 + 11.7 × 1.645✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✽✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✹✿ ❇úsq✉❡❞❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s z ❡♥ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ N (0, 1)✳ ❱❛❧♦r ❞❡ Z q✉❡ ❞❡❥❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ✵✳✾✺

❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡ ✳ ❙❡❛♥ X1 , ..., XN ✈✳❛✳ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ t♦❞❛s ❡❧❧❛s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ µX ② ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ σX ✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
s✐❣✉❡ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ N ❡s ❡❧❡✈❛❞♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱
N
X  √ 
Xi ≈ N N µX , N σX .
i=1

❚✐♣✐✜❝❛♥❞♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❡♥✉♥❝✐❛r ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡ ❞✐❝✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡

PN
i=1 Xi − N µX
√ ≈ N (0, 1) .
N σX

❊st❡ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❡s ❡❧ q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛ ✉♥❛ ❥✉st✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ❞❡❧ ♣♦rq✉é ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛ ❡s ✉♥
♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s r❡❛❧❡s ❡♥ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛ ❡♥ ✉♥ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛❞♦
❡s ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ s✉♠❛r ✉♥ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t❛❧❡s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s X1 , ..., XN ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s

q ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ U [0, 1]✳ ❙❡❣ú♥ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛
❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ❧í♠✐t❡✱ N 12 ✳ P❛r❛ ♣♦♥❡r ❡st❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ s❡ ❤❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦
N
P
X
i=1 i ≈ N 0.5N,
❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✿
P❛r❛ N = 1, 2, 5 ② 10✱ s❡ ❤❛ s✐♠✉❧❛❞♦ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✶✵✵✵✵ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ Xi ✱ ❞✐❜✉❥❛♥❞♦ s✉ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛
PN
i=1

✾✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

140 250
N=1 N=2
120
200
100

80 150

60 100
40
50
20

0 0
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 0 0.5 1 1.5 2

300 350
N=5 N=10
250 300

250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50 50

0 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 4 6 8 10

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✺✿ ■❧✉str❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡✳

❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ❝❛s♦✳ ❊st♦s ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✺✳ ❊♥ ❡❧❧❛ s❡ ♣♦♥❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ ❝♦♠♦ s❡❣ú♥
N ❝r❡❝❡✱ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ s❡ ✈❛ ♣❛r❡❝✐❡♥❞♦ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❡③ ♠ás ❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s r❡❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ✉♥ ❡①❛♠❡♥ ❞❡ ✶✺✵ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛s✱ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s ❝♦♥ ✉♥❛
♣✉♥t✉❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✶ ♣✉♥t♦ ② q✉❡ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝ó♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s ❡st✉❞✐❛❞♦✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ❝♦♥t❡st❛r ❛❝❡rt❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ ❡s ❞❡ ✵✳✼✳ ❉é♠♦♥♦s ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛
♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ B (1, 0.7)✱ ❝✉②❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s 1 × 0.7 = 0.7 ② ❝✉②❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s
1 × 0.7 × (1 − 0.7) = 0.21✳
P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ✜♥❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ s❡rá ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✶✺✵ ♣✉♥t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s✳ P♦❞rí❛♠♦s ✈❡r ❡st❡
r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ s❡❣ú♥ ✉♥❛ B (150, 0.7)✱ ♣❡r♦ ❧♦s ❝á❧❝✉❧♦s s❡rí❛♥ ♠✉② t❡❞✐♦s♦s ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ ❧♦s ❢❛❝t♦r✐❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ♠❡r❡❝❡ ❧❛ ♣❡♥❛ q✉❡ ✉t✐❧✐❝❡♠♦s ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧
▲í♠✐t❡✱ s❡❣ú♥ ❡❧ ❝✉á❧ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ✜♥❛❧✱ X ✱ s❡❣✉✐rí❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
√

N 150 × 0.7, 150 × 0.21 ,

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ X → N (105, 5.612) . ❆sí✱ s✐ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛♣r♦❜❛r✱
ést❛ s❡rá
P [X > 75] = P [Z > −0.952] = 0.830.

❊st❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡✱ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧✳

❊♥✉♥❝✐❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡ ❡♥ tér♠✐♥♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ X̄ ✱ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s X1 , ..., XN ✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s
❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ s✐ N ❡s ❣r❛♥❞❡✱
√
X̄ ≈ N (µ, σ/ N )

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✾✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ❞✐s❡ñ❛ ✉♥ ❛♣❛r❛t♦ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ q✉❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛ ✉♥❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♠ás ✐♠♣r❡❝✐s❛ q✉❡
❡❧ ❛♣❛r❛t♦ tr❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧ ♣❡r♦ ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠ás ❜❛r❛t❛✳ P❛r❛ r❡❞✉❝✐r ❡❧ ♠❛r❣❡♥ ❞❡ ❡rr♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞❛✱
❡❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ♣r♦♣♦♥❞rá q✉❡ s❡ r❡❛❧✐❝❡♥ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ② q✉❡
s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❝♦♠♦ ✈❛❧♦r ✜♥❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡❧ ♦❜❥❡t♦✳
■♥✐❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ❤❛❝❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛❧♦r❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❧❡ ❧❧❡✈❛ ❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❛♣❛r❛t♦ ❡stá ❜✐❡♥ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞♦✱
❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡❧ ❛♣❛r❛t♦ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ r❡❛❧✱ ② q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛
❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡❧ ❛♣❛r❛t♦ ❡s ✐❣✉❛❧ ❛ ✵✳✼✺✳
➽❈✉á♥t❛s ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡❜❡ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡r ❡❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ s❡❛ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✵✳✶ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪
❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❄
❊♠♣❡❝❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✱ Xi ✱ t✐❡♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡❧ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r♦ Pn
✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡❧
i=1 Xi
♦❜❥❡t♦✱ x0 ✱ ② ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ✵✳✼✺✳ P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ✜♥❛❧ s❡rá X̄ = n ✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦s
✐♥t❡r❡s❛ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ n✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱ t❡♥❣❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ s❡ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡ q✉❡
  
P X̄ − x0  < 0.1 ≥ 0.95.
 
② q✉❡✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡✱ X̄ → N x0 , 0.75
√
n
✳ P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱
 √ √ 
     0.1 n 0.1 n
P X̄ − x0  < 0.1 = P x0 − 0.1 < X̄ < x0 + 0.1 = P − <Z<
0.75 0.75
  √ 
0.1 n
=1−2× 1−P Z < .
0.75
h √ i √
❙✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s q✉❡ P X̄ − x0  < 0.1 ≥ 0.95✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s P Z < 0.1 n
≥ 0.975✱ ❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡ 0.1 n
≥ 1.96 ②
  
0.75 0.75
❡♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ n ≥ 216.09✳
❈♦♠♦ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐ó♥✱ ♠ás ❧❡ ✈❛❧❡ ❛❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ❞✐s♠✐♥✉✐r ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❞❡❧ ❛♣❛r❛t♦ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✳

✹✳✻✳ ❈✉❛♥t✐❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳ ❆♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s

P❛r❛ ❛❝❛❜❛r ❡❧ t❡♠❛ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♠ás s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛s ♣❡r♦ ❛ ❧❛ ✈❡③ ♠ás út✐❧❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s
❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳ ❉❡❜♦ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ s♦♥ ♥✉♠❡r♦s❛s ❧❛s ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❞❡s❞❡ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ❛♠❜✐❡♥t❡s ❝✐❡♥tí✜❝♦s ② ❞❡ ❧❛
■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ❤❡ ❛s❡s♦r❛❞♦ ❛ ♣r♦❢❡s✐♦♥❛❧❡s ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ q✉❡ ✈❡r ❝♦♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡st❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥
❛♥❛❧✐③❛✳ ▲♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r s♦♥✱ ❣r♦ss♦ ♠♦❞♦✱ sí♥t❡s✐s ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳
❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♠❡♥③❛r ❞❡✜♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ p ✭p ∈ [0, 1]✮ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ X ✳ ❙❡❛ ést❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❡♠♦s f (x) ❛ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✳

❙❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❡❧ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ p✱ Qp ❞❡ s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r ✈❛❧♦r✱ x✱ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ t❛❧ q✉❡ P [X ≤ x] ≥ p✿

❙✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ Qp s❡rá✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r ✈❛❧♦r t❛❧ q✉❡

X
f (x) ≥ p.
xi ≤x

✾✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

◆ót❡s❡ q✉❡✱ ❛❧ s❡r ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❧♦❣r❡♠♦s ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ t✐♣♦
P
xi ≤x f (x) =
p✳

❙✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ Qp sí ♣✉❡❞❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r x t❛❧ q✉❡

ˆ x
f (t) dt = p,
−∞

♦ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡s ❧♦ ♠✐s♠♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r x t❛❧ q✉❡ F (x) = p✱ s✐❡♥❞♦ F ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳

❊s ♠✉② ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ p ❛ ❧❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❛s♦❝✐❛ ✉♥ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ s❡ ❡①♣r❡s❡ ❡♥ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱
❧♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐❧❡s t❛♠❜✐é♥ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❧❧❛♠❛r ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡❧ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ ✵✳✺ ❡s ❡❧ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ✺✵✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛✳
❉❡s❞❡ ❧✉❡❣♦✱ ❧♦ ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❡s q✉❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❡♠♦s q✉é s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛ ❡❧ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ p ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛
❉❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛✱ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❞❡❥❛ ♣♦r ❞❡❜❛❥♦ ❞❡ sí ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ p ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳
❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ s✐ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❝✉❛♥t✐❧ ❛❧t♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡s ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❛❧t♦
❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ② ✈✐❝❡✈❡rs❛✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❛❝❧❛r❛r❧♦ ❝♦♥ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s
❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s✳

✹✳✻✳✶✳ ▲❛ ❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ❞❡ ❜❛ ❥♦ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ♠❛r❝❛ ❆◆❚❊

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❞❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♠❡♥tá❜❛♠♦s ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s té❝♥✐❝❛s q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝í❛♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡♥✈♦❧t♦r✐♦

❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ❞❡ ✶✹❲ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ❆◆❚❊✱ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡❝í❛ q✉❡ t❡♥í❛ ✉♥❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✽ ❛ñ♦s✳
❊s♦ ❝♦♥tr❛❞✐❝❡ ♥✉❡str❛ s❡♥s❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❧á♠♣❛r❛s ❞✉r❛♥ ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠❡♥♦s ②✱ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛s♦✱ ❡s
✉♥❛ s✐♠♣❧✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ✐♥❛❞♠✐s✐❜❧❡✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ s✉❥❡t❛ ❛
✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❤❛❝❡r ✉♥ ♣❛r ❞❡ ❛s✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s✳ ❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❡s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ q✉✐s✐❡r❛♥ ❞❡❝✐r ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡♥✈♦❧t♦r✐♦
❡s q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s ❞❡ ✽ ❛ñ♦s ✭❧♦ ❝✉á❧✱ ♣♦r ❝✐❡rt♦✱ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣♦❞rí❛ s❡r ♦❜❥❡t♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr♦✈❡rs✐❛✮✳
❊♥ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡r ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✉✲
r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❧á♠♣❛r❛✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❡❧ ♠ás s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦ q✉❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❡♠♣❧❡❛rs❡ ❡♥ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✿
❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✳ ❊st❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣♦❞rí❛ s❡r ❞✐s❝✉t✐❞❛✱ ♣❡r♦ ♦tr♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ♠ás ❝♦♠♣❧❡❥♦s✱
❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❲❡✐❜✉❧❧✱ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛rí❛♥ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ♥✉❡str♦s ❝á❧❝✉❧♦s q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ t✐❡♥❡♥ só❧♦ ✜♥❡s
✐❧✉str❛t✐✈♦s✳
P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜♦♠❜✐❧❧❛ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ D✱ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✽ ❛ñ♦s ②✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❝♦♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ = 1/8✳ ❆❤♦r❛ q✉❡ ②❛ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧íst✐❝♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛r♥♦s ♠✉❝❤❛s ❝♦s❛s✿

➽❊s ♠✉② ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❧á♠♣❛r❛ ❛❧❝❛♥❝❡ s✉ ✈✐❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❛❄

∞
1 −x
ˆ
P [D > 8] = e 8 dx = e−8/8 = 0.3678794.
8 8

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❡s♦ ❡s ❛❧❣♦ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr✐rá ❝♦♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✿ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ s✉♣❡r❡ ❧❛
♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s só❧♦ ❞❡❧ ✸✻✳✼✾ ✪✳ ❉✐❝❤♦ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s ❡❧ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ✻✸ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧♦ q✉❡
✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ só❧♦ ❡❧ ✸✼ ✪ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❧á♠♣❛r❛s s✉♣❡r❛♥ s✉ ✈✐❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳✳✳ ➽s♦r♣r❡♥❞❡♥t❡❄

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✾✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

➽❨ ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ s✉♣❡r❛♥ ❡❧ ✺✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❧á♠♣❛r❛s❄ ❙❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛✱ M e = F −1 (0.5) ,

❞♦♥❞❡ F () ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥❛ ❡s ❧❛ s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡❝✉❛❝✐ó♥
1 − e−λM e = 0.5,

−λ = 8 × log2 = 5.545177. ▲✉❡❣♦✱ ✈✐st♦ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ❡❧ ✺✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❧á♠♣❛r❛s

q✉❡ r❡s✉❧t❛ s❡r M e = log0.5
s❡ r♦♠♣❡♥ ❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ✺✳✺✹✺ ❛ñ♦s✳
P❛r❛ t❡r♠✐♥❛r✱ ❛♥✐♠♦ ❛ ❧♦s ❧❡❝t♦r❡s ✐♥t❡r❡s❛❞♦s ❛ q✉❡ ❜✉sq✉❡♥ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❝ó♠♣✉t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛
♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❧á♠♣❛r❛s✱ ❜❛s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛s ❛❝❡❧❡r❛❞❛s s♦❜r❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ✭❜❛st❛♥t❡
r❡❞✉❝✐❞❛✱ ♣♦r ❝✐❡rt♦✮ ❞❡ ❧á♠♣❛r❛s✳

✹✳✻✳✷✳ ▲❛s ✈✐s✐t❛s ❛❧ ♣❡❞✐❛tr❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛❞r❡s ♣r❡♦❝✉♣❛❞♦s

▲♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❤✐❥♦s ♣❡q✉❡ñ♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s ❝♦♥ ❝✐❡rt❛ ❛♥s✐❡❞❛❞ ❧❛ ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ s✉ ♣❡s♦ ② s✉ ❛❧t✉r❛✳ ❈✉❛♥❞♦
✈❛♠♦s ❛❧ ♣❡❞✐❛tr❛✱ ést❡ ♣❡s❛ ② ♠✐❞❡ ❛❧ ❜❡❜é ②✱ ♦❜✈✐❛♠❡♥t❡✱ t❡ ❞✐❝❡ ❝ó♠♦ ❡stá✳ P❡r♦ ❡❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❡s q✉❡ ♥♦
❜❛st❛ ❝♦♥ q✉❡ ♠❡ ❞✐❣❛ ❝✉á♥t♦ ♣❡s❛ ② ♠✐❞❡ ♠✐ ❤✐❥♦ ♦ ♠✐ ❤✐❥❛✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ ♠❡ ❞✐❣❛ ❝✉á♥t♦ ♣❡s❛ ② ❝✉á♥t♦ ♠✐❞❡ ❡♥
r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ♥✐ñ♦s ♦ ♥✐ñ❛s ❞❡ s✉ ♠✐s♠❛ ❡❞❛❞✳ ❊♥ ❡s❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥ ❡s ❞ó♥❞❡ ❡♥tr❛♥ ❧♦s ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧❡s✳
❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ ❥✉❣❛♠♦s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✈❡♥t❛❥❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛♥ ❤❡❝❤♦ ♠✉❧t✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ❡st✉❞✐♦s ♣r❡✈✐♦s q✉❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥ q✉❡
t❛♥t♦ ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ❛❧t✉r❛ s♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s q✉❡ s✐❣✉❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳ ▼ás ❛ú♥✱ s❡ ❤❛♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦
❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ② ❧❛s ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐♦♥❡s tí♣✐❝❛s ❞❡ ♥✐ñ♦s ② ♥✐ñ❛s ❞❡s❞❡ ❧♦s ✵ ♠❡s❡s ❤❛st❛ ❧❛ ❡❞❛❞ ❛❞✉❧t❛✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ♣♦♥❡r♥♦s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛✱ ❝❡♥trá♥❞♦♥♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣❡s♦✳ ❚❡♥❣♦ ✉♥ ❤✐❥♦ ❞❡ tr❡s ♠❡s❡s q✉❡ ♣❡s❛
✺✳✻ ❦✐❧♦s✳ ▲❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ❡s ➽❡stá ❣♦r❞♦❄ ➽❡s ❜❛❥✐t♦❄ ❊♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛s♦✱ ❝ó♠♦ ❞❡ ❣♦r❞♦ ♦ ❞❡ ❜❛❥✐t♦✳ ❊❧ ♣❡❞✐❛tr❛
s❛❜❡ ♣♦r ❡st✉❞✐♦s ♣r❡✈✐♦s✷ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ❞❡ ♥✐ñ♦s ❞❡ tr❡s ♠❡s❡s ❡s ✉♥❛ N (6, 1.2)✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ s❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛ ❡s ❡♥ q✉é
♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ s❡ s✐tú❛ ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ❞❡ ♠✐ ❤✐❥♦✱ ✺✳✻ ❦✐❧♦s✱ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❡s❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳ ❙✐ X ❡s ❡❧ ♣❡s♦✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡
P [X ≤ 5.6] = 0.369,

❡❧ ♣❡❞✐❛tr❛ ♠❡ ❞✐rá q✉❡ ♠✐ ❤✐❥♦ ❡stá ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣❡r❝❡♥t✐❧ ✸✼✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ q✉✐❡r❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡s ✉♥ ♣❡❧í♥ ❜❛❥♦ ❞❡ ♣❡s♦✱ ♣❡r♦
❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s r❛③♦♥❛❜❧❡s✳

✷ ❋✉❡♥t❡✿ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳❢❛♠✐❧✐❛✳❝❧✴s❛❧✉❞✴❝✉r✈❛s❴❞❡❴❝r❡❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦✴❝✉r✈❛s❴❞❡❴❝r❡❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦✳❤t♠

✾✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✹✳✶✻✿ ❈✉r✈❛s ❞❡ ❝r❡❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✵ ❛ ✷✹ ♠❡s❡s✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✾✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✾✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✺

❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛
❊❧ ♠❛tr✐♠♦♥✐♦ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝❛✉s❛ ❞❡ ❞✐✈♦r❝✐♦✳

●r♦✉❝❤♦ ▼❛r①

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❤❡♠♦s ♣❛s❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❛❧t♦ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡
❞♦s ♦ ♠ás ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♣✉❡❞❡ ✈❡rs❡ ❛❢❡❝t❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✉♥❛ s❡r✐❡ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳ ❊❧ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦
❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❡st❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡s ❡❧ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❝❛s♦ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧✱ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r❡♠♦s ❞❡
❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡t❛❧❧❛❞❛ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ❡st❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧✱ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✱ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ❝♦❡✜✲
❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡✳

✺✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❊❧ ♠✉♥❞♦ r❡❛❧ ❡stá r❡♣❧❡t♦ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♥✐✈❡❧❡s✳ ◆♦s♦tr♦s✱ ♣♦r r❛③♦♥❡s ♦❜✈✐❛s✱ ❡st❛r❡♠♦s ✐♥t❡r❡✲
s❛❞♦s ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❧❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❛❢❡❝t❛♥ ❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s q✉❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡♥ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ♣r♦♣✐♦s ❞❡❧ ❛♠❜✐❡♥t❡
❝✐❡♥tí✜❝♦✲t❡❝♥♦❧ó❣✐❝♦✳ ❊st❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣✉❡❞❡♥ t❡♥❡r ♠✉② ❞✐✈❡rs❛s t✐♣♦❧♦❣✐❛s✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r
❡♥ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝❛✉s❛✲❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛rí❛ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ♣á❣✐♥❛ ❲❡❜ t❡♥❣❛ ✉♥ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❝♦♥✲
s✐❞❡r❛❜❧❡ ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ q✉❡ ❧❧❡✈❛ ✐♥❝r✉st❛❞♦ ✈❛r✐♦s ❛r❝❤✐✈♦s ❞❡ ✈í❞❡♦ ② ❛✉❞✐♦✱ ♦ ❧❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ ❡❞❛❞
❡♥ ❛ñ♦s ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡st✐❣✐♦ ② s✉ ❝♦♥t❡♥✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❝❛r❜♦♥♦ ✶✹✶ ✳ P❡r♦ ♥♦ só❧♦ t❡♥❞r❡♠♦s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝❛✉s❛✲❡❢❡❝t♦✿ ♣♦r
❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ② ❧❛ ❡st❛t✉r❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ s❡r ❤✉♠❛♥♦ s♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♠✉② r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✱ ❤❛st❛ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦
q✉❡ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ♣❡rs♦♥❛ ❡st❡ ♦❜❡s❛ só❧♦ ❝♦♥ s❛❜❡r s✉ ♣❡s♦✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ✈❛❧♦r❛r❧♦ ❡♥
r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❛ s✉ ❡st❛t✉r❛✳
P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ✉♥ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ❡s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝♦ ② ❡stá ❜✐❡♥ ❡st✉❞✐❛❞♦✱ ❧❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥tr❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
s♦♥ ❧❡②❡s ♠ás ♦ ♠❡♥♦s s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛s✱ ♣❡r♦✱ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛s♦✱ s♦♥ ✐♥♠✉t❛❜❧❡s✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱
masa
densidad = .
vol.
✶ ❘❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ❝✐❡rt♦✱ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ❧❛ ❞❛t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈❡st✐❣✐♦✳

✾✼
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

P❡r♦✱ ➽q✉é ♦❝✉rr❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦❄ ▲❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦ s♦♥ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ② ❧❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡
s❡ ♣✉❡❞❛♥ ❞❛r ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧❧❛s ♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ♣♦r q✉é ♦❜❡❞❡❝❡r ❛ ✉♥❛ ❧❡② ♦❜❥❡t✐✈❛ ❡ ✐♥❛♠♦✈✐❜❧❡✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱
t♦❞♦s s♦♠♦s ❝♦♥s❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❞❡❝í❛♠♦s✱ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ② ❧❛ ❛❧t✉r❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣❡rs♦♥❛✱
♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ r❛③ó♥ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✈❡rs✐ó♥ ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡❧ ♣❡s♦ ❡①❛❝t♦ ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉✐❡♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ s✉ ❛❧t✉r❛✳ ❊s
❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❞❡s❝❛r❣❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣á❣✐♥❛ ✇❡❜ ❡st❛rá r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛r❝❤✐✈♦s q✉❡
❧❛ ❝♦♥✜❣✉r❛♥✱ ♣❡r♦ ➽❝ó♠♦ ❞❡ ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ ❄ ② ➽❞❡ q✉é ❢♦r♠❛ ❡s ❡s❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥❄ ❆♠❜❛s ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛s tr❛t❛rá♥ ❞❡ s❡r
❝♦♥t❡st❛❞❛s ❛ ❧♦ ❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦✳

❙❡❛♥ X1 , ..., XN ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✳ ❊❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦

 
X1
 ✳✳ 

 ✳ 

XN

❡s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❞❡ ❞✐♠❡♥s✐ó♥ N✳

❍❛❜❧❛r❡♠♦s ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦s ♦ ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ❞✐s❝r❡t♦s ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ s✉s
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s❡❛♥ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s ♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳ P♦❞rí❛♥ ❞❛rs❡ ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ♠✐①t♦s✱ ♣❡r♦ s✉ tr❛t❛♠✐❡♥t♦
❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ♥♦ ♥♦s ✐♥t❡r❡s❛ ♣♦r ❛❤♦r❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❛♥❛❧ó❣✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ x (t)✳ ❊♥ ❡st❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥✱
❡♥t❡♥❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ♣♦❞rí❛ s❡r ❞✐st✐♥t♦ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ t✳ ❊s ♠✉② ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡
q✉❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♥ r✉✐❞♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ q✉❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡rá ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✱
N (t)✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ s✐ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❡♥ ❧♦s ✐♥st❛♥t❡s t1 , ..., tN ✱ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r
 
x (t1 ) + N (t1 )
 ✳✳ 

 ✳ 

x (tn ) + N (tn )

❡s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ q✉❡ ✉♥ ✉s✉❛r✐♦ ❞❡ ■♥t❡r♥❡t ❞❡❞✐❝❛ ❛ ✈❡r ✉♥❛ ♣á❣✐♥❛ ❲❊❇ (T ) ❡♥ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ t❡①t♦ q✉❡ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ (T x)✱ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✐♠á❣❡♥❡s (I) ② ❛♥✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s
❋❧❛s❤ (F ) ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣á❣✐♥❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r
 
T
 
 Tx 
 
 I 
 
F

❡s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

✾✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡ ❝♦♥t❛❜✐❧✐③❛ ❧❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s t❡❧❡❢ó♥✐❝❛s ❛ ✉♥❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧✐t❛✳ P❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡
♥✲✉s✉❛r✐♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧✐t❛✱ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ♦❝✉♣❛ ✉♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ Ti ❡♥ s✉ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r

 
T1
 ✳ 
 ✳ 
 ✳ 
Tn

❡s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

✺✳✷✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛✱ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ② ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛

❊❧ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦ ❛ ❛❜♦r❞❛r ❡♥ ❡❧ t❡♠❛ ❡s ❝ó♠♦ ♠❡❞✐r ❧❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ❧♦s s✉❝❡s♦s q✉❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡
✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳ ❨❛ ✈✐♠♦s q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s❡ tr❛t❛❜❛ ❞❡ ❤❛❝❡r❧♦ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧❛
❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✳ ❆❤♦r❛✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r✱ ❡s ❛❧❣♦ ♠ás ❝♦♠♣❧❡❥♦✳

✺✳✷✳✶✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❡s✱ ❡s❡♥❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ❡♥ q✉❡

s❡ r❡♣❛rt❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥tr❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r✳ P❛r❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r❧❛ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡✜♥✐r ❧♦s
❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦s ❞❡ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♦ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❛♥á❧♦❣♦s ❛ ❧♦s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳

❙❡❛ (X1 , ..., XN ) ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❝♦♠♦

fX1 ,...,XN (x1 , ..., xN ) = P [X = x1 , ..., XN = xN ] .

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ s✐ (X1 , ..., XN ) ❡s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

❡s ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ t❛❧ q✉❡

ˆ ˆ
P (X1 , ..., XN ) ∈ A ⊂ RN =
 
... fX1 ,...,XN (x1 , ..., xN ) dx1 ...dxN
A⊂RN

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❜✐❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛❧✱(X, Y )′ ✱ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

(
ce−x−y s✐ 0 < y < x
fX,Y (x, y) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ c t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡

ˆ
fX,Y (x, y) dxdy = 1.
R2

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✾✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

P♦r ❡❧❧♦✱
∞ ˆ x  ∞
c
ˆ ˆ
−x −y
ce−x 1 − e−x dx = ,


1= ce e dy dx =
0 0 0 2
❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡ c = 2✳
❊♥ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s
ˆ 1 ˆ 1−y
P [X + Y ≤ 1] = 2e−x e−y dxdy
0 y
ˆ 1 h i
= 2e−y e−y − e−(1−y) dy
0
−1 − 2e + e2
= .
e2

✭✈❡r ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✶✮

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✶✿ ❘❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣❧❛♥♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ X ❡ Y ✱ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

(
1
15 s✐ 0 ≤ x ≤ 3, 0 ≤ y ≤ 5
fX,Y (x, y) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❊st❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ r❡❝tá♥❣✉❧♦ ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡
❡♥ ❞✐❝❤♦ r❡❝tá♥❣✉❧♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ Y s❡❛ ♠❛②♦r q✉❡ X ✭✈❡r ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✷✮
3 ˆ 5 
1
ˆ
P [Y > X] = dy dx
0 x 15
3
5−x
ˆ
= dx
0 15
x x2 3 7
= − | = .
3 30 0 10

✶✵✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✷✿ ❘❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣❧❛♥♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳

✺✳✷✳✷✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s

❯♥❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ s♦♠♦s ❝❛♣❛❝❡s ❞❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ s✉

❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛✱ s✉r❣❡ ✉♥ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛✿ q✉é ♦❝✉rr❡ s✐ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❧❛

❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♦ ♠ás ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r✱ ♥♦ ❞❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❡♥ s✉ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦✳ ❊s❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♦ ♠ás ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧✳

′
❙❡❛ (X1 , ..., XN ) ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ② (Xi1 , ..., Xik ) ✉♥ s✉❜✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s✉②♦✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✿

❙✐ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✱

ˆ ˆ Y
fXi1 ,...,Xik (xi1 , ..., xik ) = ... fX1 ,...XN (x1 , ..., xn ) dxj .
/ (xi1 ,...,xik )
xj ∈
/ (xi1 ,...,xik )
xj ∈

❙✐ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t♦✱

X
fXi1 ,...,Xik (xi1 , ..., xik ) = fX1 ,...XN (x1 , ..., xn ) .
/ (xi1 ,...,xik )
xj ∈

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❜✐❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛❧ (X, Y ) ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ fX,Y (x, y) = x · e−x(y+1)
♣❛r❛ x, y > 0✳
▲❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ X✱
ˆ ∞ ˆ ∞
fX (x) = fX,Y (x, y) dy = xe−x(y+1) dy = e−x
−∞ 0

♣❛r❛ x > 0✳
❆♥á❧♦❣❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ Y✱
∞ ∞
1
ˆ ˆ
fY (y) = fX,Y (x, y) · dx = xe−x(y+1) dx = 2
−∞ 0 (1 + y)

♣❛r❛ y > 0✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✵✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✱ Q ② G✱ ❝✉②❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛✱ fQ,G (q, g) , ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

fQ,G (q, g) g=0 g=1 g=2 g=3

q=0 0.06 0.18 0.24 0.12 .
q=1 0.04 0.12 0.16 0.08

❙✉s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛s s♦♥✿

X
fQ (q) = fQ,G (q, g)
g
(
0.06 + 0.18 + 0.24 + 0.12 s✐ q=0
=
0.04 + 0.12 + 0.16 + 0.08 s✐ q=1
(
0.6 s✐ q=0
=
0.4 s✐ q=1

②



 0.06 + 0.04 s✐ g=0


0.18 + 0.12

s✐ g=1
fG (g) =


 0.24 + 0.16 s✐ g=2


0.12 + 0.08

s✐ g=3

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r ❝♦♥s✐❞❡rá❜❛♠♦s ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s X ❡ Y q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

(
1
15 s✐ 0 ≤ x ≤ 3, 0 ≤ y ≤ 5
fX,Y (x, y) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r s✉s ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞❡s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s✿

ˆ ∞
fX (x) = fX,Y (x, y) dy
−∞
( ´5
1
0 15
dy s✐ 0 ≤ x ≤3
=
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦
(
1
3 s✐ 0≤x≤3
=
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

✶✵✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

ˆ ∞
fY (y) = fX,Y (x, y) dx
−∞
( ´3
1
0 15
dx s✐ 0 ≤ y ≤5
=
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦
(
1
5 s✐ 0≤y≤5
= .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❛♠❜❛s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ ❛ s❡♥❞❛s ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞❡s ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡ X ❡ Y ❡s

(
2x s✐ 0 ≤ x ≤ 1, |y| < x2
fX,Y (x, y) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s ❛♠❜❛s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s✿

ˆ ∞
fX (x) = fX,Y (x, y) dy
−∞
( ´ 2
x
−x2
2xdy s✐ 0≤x≤1
=
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦
(
4x3 s✐ 0≤x≤1
=
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

ˆ ∞
fY (y) = fX,Y (x, y) dx
−∞
√
( ´1
|y|
2xdx s✐ −1≤y ≤1
=
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦
(
1 − |y| s✐ −1≤y ≤1
= .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

✺✳✷✳✸✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s

′
❙✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r X = (X1 , ..., XN ) , ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r
′
❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✉♥ s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ X ✱ (Xi1 , ..., Xik ) , ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛♥ ❞❛❞♦

❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❡♥ ♦tr♦ s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ X, Xj1 = xj1 , ..., Xjl = xjl .

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✵✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✈❡♥❞rá ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❞❛ ♣♦r s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✱ s❡❣ú♥
s❡❛ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞✐s❝r❡t♦ ♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✱ ② t❡♥❞rá ❧❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥

fXi1 ,...,Xik ,Xj1 ,...,Xjl (xi1 , ..., xik , xj1 , ..., xjl )
fXi1 ,...,Xik |Xj1 =xj1 ,...,Xjl =xjl (xi1 , ..., xik ) = ,
fXj1 ,...,Xjl (xj1 , ..., xjl )

❞♦♥❞❡ fXi1 ,...,Xik ,Xj1 ,...,Xjl (xi1 , ..., xik , xj1 , ..., xjl ) ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡
❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s Xi1 , ..., Xik , Xj1 , ..., Xjl ② fXj ,...,Xj (xj1 , ..., xjl ) ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞
1 l

❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s Xj1 , ..., Xjl ✳

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r t❡♥❣❛ ❞✐♠❡♥s✐ó♥ ❞♦s✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❧❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♦ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡
X ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛ Y = y,
fX,Y (x, y)
fX|Y =y (x) =
fY (y)
♦ ❧❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♦ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ Y ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛ X = x,

fX,Y (x, y)
fY |X=x (y) = .
fX (x)

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛♥ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s X ❡ Y ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿

②\① ✵ ✶ ✷

✵ ✸✴✷✽ ✾✴✷✽ ✸✴✷✽

✶ ✸✴✶✹ ✸✴✶✹ ✵
✷ ✶✴✷✽ ✵ ✵

▲❛s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s s♦♥


3 3 1

 28 + 14 + 28 s✐ x = 0
fX (x) = 9 3
 28 + 14 + 0 s✐ x = 1
3
28 + 0 + 0 s✐ x = 2


②

3 9 3

 28 + 28 + 28 s✐ y = 0
fY (y) = 3 3
 14 + 14 + 0 s✐ y = 1
1
28 + 0 + 0 s✐ y = 2


❈♦♠♦ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ✭❤❛② ✻ ❡♥ t♦t❛❧✮ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ X ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛
Y =1 ② ❧❛ ❞❡ Y ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛ X = 1.
 3


14
6 s✐ x=0
 14
3
fX|Y =1 (x) = 14
6 s✐ x=1 .
 14
0


6 s✐ x=2
14

 9


28
15 s✐ y=0
 28
3
fY |X=1 (y) = 14
15 s✐ x=1 .
 28
0


15 s✐ x=2
28

✶✵✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❈♦♠♦ ❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡✱ ✉♥❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❞❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛
❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ♦tr❛✱ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♦ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛rs❡
❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❚❛❧ ② ❝♦♠♦ ♣❧❛♥t❡á❜❛♠♦s ❛❧ ❝♦♠✐❡♥③♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ (X, Y ) ❞❡ ✉♥
t❡❧é❢♦♥♦ ♠ó✈✐❧ q✉❡ r❡❝✐❜❡ ❝♦❜❡rt✉r❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❛♥t❡♥❛ ❞❡ t❡❧❡❢♦♥í❛ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝ír❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ r❛❞✐♦
r ❛❧r❡❞❡❞♦r ❞❡ ❡s❛ ❛♥t❡♥❛✱ q✉❡ s✉♣♦♥❞r❡♠♦s s✐♥ ♣ér❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✐❞❛❞ q✉❡ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥
❞❡❧ ♣❧❛♥♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡ ❡s❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧ ❛③❛r ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡❧ ❝ír❝✉❧♦✳ ❊s♦ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝ír❝✉❧♦❀ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ s✉ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧ s❡❛ ❧❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞✱
❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡
1
fX,Y (x, y) =
πr2
s✐ x2 + y 2 ≤ r 2 ② ❝❡r♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣✉♥t♦ ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡❧ ❝ír❝✉❧♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r q✉é ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✈❡r✐❣✉❛r s♦❜r❡ ❧❛s
❝♦♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛s X ❡ Y ♣♦r s❡♣❛r❛❞♦ ✭♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s✮ ② s♦❜r❡ ❝ó♠♦ ❛❢❡❝t❛♥ ❧❛ ✉♥❛ ❛ ❧❛ ♦tr❛ ✭❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✮✳

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ √
r 2 −x2
√
1 2 r 2 − x2
ˆ
fX (x) = √ dy =
− r 2 −x2 πr2 πr2
s✐ −r < x < r✳ ▲❛ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ Y ❡s ❛♥á❧♦❣❛✱

p
2 r2 − y2
fY (y) =
πr2

s✐ −r < y < r✳ ❊stá ❝❧❛r♦ q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ❝♦♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ♣♦r s❡♣❛r❛❞♦✱ ❧♦s ♣✉♥t♦s ♠ás ❞❡♥s♦s✱ ♠ás ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s✱
s♦♥ ❧♦s ❝❡r❝❛♥♦s ❛❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❞❛ ❡❧ ♠á①✐♠♦ ❞❡ ❛♠❜❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s✳

❆❤♦r❛ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝♦♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛s ② ✈❡❛♠♦s q✉é ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♦tr❛✿

fX,Y (x, y0 ) 1
fX|Y =y0 (x) = = p
fY (y0 ) 2 r − y02
2

p p
s✐ − r2 − y02 < x < r2 − y02 ✳ ❆♥á❧♦❣❛♠❡♥t❡✱

fX,Y (x0 , y) 1
fY |X=x0 (y) = = p
fX (x0 ) 2 r2 − x20
p p
s✐ − r2 − x20 < y < r2 − x20 ✳ ❙✐ ♥♦s ❞❛♠♦s ❝✉❡♥t❛✱ ❛♠❜❛s s♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡s✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡
❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ s❛❜❡r ✉♥❛ ❝♦♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ♥♦ ♠❡ ❞❛ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♦tr❛ ❝♦♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❆ ❧❛s ✶✷ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥♦❝❤❡ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞í❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡♠❛♥❛ ❝♦♠✐❡♥③❛♥ ❛ s❡r r❡❣✐str❛❞♦s ❧❛s ♥✉❡✈❛s ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s
❛ ✉♥ s✇✐t❝❤ ❞❡ t❡❧❡❢♦♥í❛✳ ❙❡❛ X ❡❧ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❧❡❣❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛✱ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♥ s❡❣✉♥❞♦s
tr❛♥s❝✉rr✐❞♦s tr❛s ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥♦❝❤❡✳ ❙❡❛ Y ❡❧ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❧❡❣❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♠ás

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✵✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦ ❡♥ t❡❧❡❢♦♥í❛✱ X ❡ Y s♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s ❝♦♥ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r
(
λ2 e−λy s✐ 0 ≤ x < y
fX,Y (x, y) = ,
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❞♦♥❞❡ λ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❛✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s ② ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s q✉❡
♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❞❛rs❡✿

▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ X ✿ ˆ ∞
fX (x) = λ2 e−λy dy = λe−λx s✐ 0 ≤ x,
x

❧✉❡❣♦ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✳

▼❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ Y : ˆ y
fY (y) = λ2 e−λy dx = λ2 ye−λy s✐ y ≥ 0✳
0

❙✐ ♥♦s ✜❥❛♠♦s✱ ❡st❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❡s ✉♥❛ Gamma (2, λ)✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r ✉♥❛ ❊r❧❛♥❣ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s 2 ② λ✳

❈♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ Y ❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X :

fX,Y (x, y)
fY /X=x (y) = = λe−λ(y−x) s✐ y > x.
fX (x)

❊♥ ❡st❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ ♦❧✈✐❞❛rs❡ q✉❡ x ❡s ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ✜❥♦✱ ❞❛❞♦✳

❈♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ X ❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ Y :

fX,Y (x, y) 1
fX/Y =y (x) = = s✐ 0 ≤ x < y.
fY (y) y

❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ❡❧ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❧❡❣ó ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ (y)✱ ♥♦ s❡ s❛❜❡ ♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❝✉á♥❞♦ ❧❧❡❣ó
❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛ Y = y ❡s ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❡♥ (0, y)✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ X r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ✐♥♣✉t ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝❛♥❛❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❝♦♥ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s
✈❛❧♦r❡s +1 ② −1 ❡q✉✐♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s✱ ② s❡❛ Y ❡❧ ❞í❣✐t♦ q✉❡ ❧❧❡❣❛ ❛❧ ❞❡st✐♥♦✱ ❝♦♥ ✈❛❧♦r❡s t❛♠❜✐é♥ +1 ② −1✳ ❊❧
❝❛♥❛❧ ❡s ✉♥ ❝❛♥❛❧ ❜✐♥❛r✐♦ s✐♠étr✐❝♦ ❝♦♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝r✉❝❡ ❞❡❧ ✺ ✪✳
❈♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡①♣✉❡st♦s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛r ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ s✉s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛s❛ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s
❞❡ X ❡ Y ✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡ ❛♠❜♦s ② ❧❛s ❞♦s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♦tr❛✳
▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ X ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r
(
2 s✐ x = 1
1
fX (x) =
2 s✐ x = −1
1

✶✵✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ Y ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

P [Y = +1] = P [Y = +1 | X = +1] P [X = +1] + P [Y = +1 | X = −1] P [X = −1]

= 0.95 × 0.5 + 0.05 × 0.5 = 0.5
P [Y = −1] = 0.5,

❡s ❞❡❝✐r (
1
2 s✐ y = 1
fY (y) = 1
2 s✐ y = −1

▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ Y ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛❧ s✉❝❡s♦ X = +1 ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r :

(
0.95 s✐ y=1
fY |X=+1 (y) =
0.05 s✐ y = −1

▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ Y ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛❧ s✉❝❡s♦ X = −1 ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r :

(
0.95 s✐ y = −1
fY |X=−1 (y) =
0.05 s✐ y=1

▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡ X ❡ Y ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

fX,Y (x, y) = P [Y = y | X = x] P [X = x]


 0.95 × 0.5 si x = +1, y = +1

 0.05 × 0.5 si x = +1, y = −1



= 0.05 × 0.5 si x = −1, y = +1

 0.95 × 0.5 si x = −1, y = −1




0 en otro caso


▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛❧ s✉❝❡s♦ Y = +1 ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

(
fX,Y (x, +1) 0.95 s✐ x = 1
fX|Y =+1 (x) = = .
fY (+1) 0.05 s✐ x = −1

▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛❧ s✉❝❡s♦ Y = −1 ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r

(
fX,Y (x, −1) 0.05 s✐ x = 1
fX|Y =−1 (x) = = .
fY (−1) 0.95 s✐ x = −1

✺✳✸✳ ■♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡ ❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❤❛❜❧❛♠♦s ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s✳ ❉❡❝í❛♠♦s ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s q✉❡ ❞♦s

s✉❝❡s♦s A ② B ❡r❛♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s✐ ② só❧♦ s✐ P [A ∩ B] = P [A] · P [B] .

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✵✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊st❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡①t❡♥❞❡rs❡ ❛❧ ❝❛s♦ ❡♥ q✉❡ t❡♥❣❛♠♦s ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s X ❡ Y ✳

❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❞✐r❡♠♦s q✉❡ X ❡ Y s♦♥ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s✐ ② só❧♦ s✐

fX,Y (x, y) = fX (x) · fY (y) ,

❞♦♥❞❡ fX,Y (·)✱ fX (·) ② fY (·) s♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♦ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛✱ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥❞♦ ❞❡ s✐ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s♦♥
❞✐s❝r❡t❛s ♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✳

▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s s❡❛♥ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❡s q✉❡ ❡❧
❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♦tr❛ ② ✈✐❝❡✈❡rs❛✳ ❈❛❜❡ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛rs❡ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ q✉é
s❡♥t✐❞♦ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛ ♦tr❛ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❣✉❛r❞❛ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ ❡❧❧❛✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r❧♦ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛♥❞♦ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✿
fX,Y (x, y) fX (x) · fY (y)
fX|Y =y (x) = = = fX (x) ;
fY (y) fY (y)
❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❡❧ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ♦tr❛ q✉❡ ❡s ❡st❛❞ís✲
t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛ ✭❞❡s❝r✐t♦ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ fX|Y =y (x)✮ ❡s ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ q✉❡ s✐ ♥♦
s❡ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛ ❛ ❞✐❝❤♦ ✈❛❧♦r ✭❞❡s❝r✐t♦ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ fX (x)✮✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r (X, Y ) ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

(
24xy s✐ x, y ≥ 0 ② x + y ≤ 1
fX,Y (x, y) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

▲❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ X :

ˆ 1−x
24xy · dy = 12x (1 − x) s✐ 0 ≤ x ≤ 1
2
fX (x) =
0

▲❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ Y ✿

ˆ 1−y
24xy · dx = 12y (1 − y) s✐ 0 ≤ y ≤ 1.
2
fY (y) =
0

❈♦♠♦
fX,Y (x, y) 6= fX (x) · fY (y) ,

❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s X ❡ Y ♥♦ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ ❛❤♦r❛ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r (X, Y ) ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

(
4xy s✐ 0 ≤ x, y ② x, y ≤ 1
fX,Y (x, y) =
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

✶✵✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

▲❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ X✿

ˆ 1
fX (x) = 4xy · dy = 2x s✐ 0≤x≤1
0

▲❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ ❞❡ Y✿

ˆ 1
fY (y) = 4xy · dx = 2y s✐ 0 ≤ y ≤ 1.
0

❈♦♠♦

fX,Y (x, y) = fX (x) · fY (y) ,

❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s X ❡ Y s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❞♦s ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s ❡❧❡❝tró♥✐❝❛s t✐❡♥❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ❝✉②❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦✲

❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛rs❡ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ = 2 horas−1 ✳ ▲❛s ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛♥ ❡♥

♣❛r❛❧❡❧♦✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r q✉❡ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞

❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ s❡rá

fX,Y (x, y) = 2e−2x 2e−2y = 4e−2(x+y)

s✐ x, y > 0✳
➽❈✉á❧ s❡rá ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s ❞✉r❡ ♠ás ❞❡ ❞♦s ❤♦r❛s❄ P♦❞❡♠♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛r❧♦

❝♦♠♦

P [X > 2 ∪ Y > 2] = P [X > 2] + P [Y > 2] − P [X > 2 ∩ Y > 2]

= P [X > 2] + P [Y > 2] − P [X > 2] P [Y > 2] ,

❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❤❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡rs❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

❆❤♦r❛ só❧♦ ❜❛st❛rí❛ r❡❝♦r❞❛r q✉❡ P [X > 2] = e−2×2 ② P [Y > 2] = e−2×2 ✳

➽❈✉á❧ s❡rí❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ ❛♠❜❛s ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s s❡❛ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ❞♦s ❤♦r❛s❄ ▲❛

❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ t♦t❛❧ ✈❡♥❞rí❛ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r X +Y✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ s❡ ♥♦s ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ♣♦r

ˆ 2 ˆ 2−x
P [X + Y < 2] = 4e−2(x+y) dydx
0 0
ˆ 2 h  i
= 2e−2x 1 − e−2(2−x) dx
0
ˆ 2
2e−2x − 2e−4 dx


=
0

= 1 − e−4 − 2e−4 × 2

= 1 − 5e−4

❉❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❞❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s❡ s✐❣✉❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ✐♥♠❡❞✐❛t❛ q✉❡ s✐ ❞♦s

✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ❡st♦ ❡s✱ ♥♦ ♠❛♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ t❛♠♣♦❝♦ ❧♦ ❤❛rá♥ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✵✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

s✉②❛s✳ ❊st❡ ❤❡❝❤♦ s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳ ▲♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛r ♠ás ❢♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❞✐❝✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ s✐
X ❡ Y s♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ② V = g (X) ② W = h (Y ) s♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s s✉②❛s✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ V ②
W t❛♠❜✐é♥ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

❊♥ ❡❧ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❚❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s s❡ ❞❛♥ ♥✉♠❡r♦s❛s s✐t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞♦♥❞❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛
W✱ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ♦tr❛s ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ✭❣❡♥❡r❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✮ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ X
❡ Y, ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ W = X + Y. P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s❡ ❞❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❛ ✉♥❛ s❡ñ❛❧ X s❡ ❧❡ ❛❞❤✐❡r❡ ✉♥ r✉✐❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❡ ❡s
❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❥❡♥♦ ✭✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✮✱ Y✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡ ② q✉❡rr❡♠♦s
❝♦♥♦❝❡r s✉ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡❧ ❞❡ X ❡ Y ✳ ❊st♦ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✈♦❧✉❝✐ó♥✳

❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s❡❛♥ X ❡ Y ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ② s❡❛ W =X +Y✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✿

❙✐ X ❡ Y s♦♥ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✱

ˆ ∞
fW (w) = fY (y) · fX (w − y) · dy
−∞

= fX ∗ fY (w)

❞♦♥❞❡ fX ② fY s♦♥ ❧❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ X ❡ Y✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳

❙✐ X ❡ Y s♦♥ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✱

X
fW (w) = fY (y) · fX (w − y)
y

= fX ∗ fY (w)

❞♦♥❞❡ fX ② fY s♦♥ ❧❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ X ❡ Y✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ s✐st❡♠❛ ♦♣❡r❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥❛ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ❝❧❛✈❡ ❝✉②❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥✱ T1 , s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①✲
♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✳ ❙✐ ❡st❛ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ❢❛❧❧❛✱ ✐♥♠❡❞✐❛t❛♠❡♥t❡ s❡ ♣♦♥❡ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ✉♥❛
❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ q✉❡ ❤❛st❛ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ❤❛ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❡♥ st❛♥❞❜②✱ ❝✉②❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ♣♦r
T2 ✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ T1 .
❙✐ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❛❝✐ó♥ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡❧ s✐st❡♠❛✱ q✉❡ ✈❡♥❞rá ❞❛❞❛
♣♦r ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ T = T1 + T2 ✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♣♦♥❡r ❡♥ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✈♦❧✉❝✐ó♥✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱
t❡♥❣❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡
fTi (x) = λe−λx , i = 1, 2,

♣❛r❛ x > 0✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ˆ z

fT (z) = λe−λx λe−λ(z−x) dx = λ2 ze−λz
0

♣❛r❛ z > 0✳ ❈♦♠♦ ✈❡♠♦s✱ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❊r❧❛♥❣ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s 2 ② λ✳ ❙✐ r❡❝♦r❞❛♠♦s✱ ❡st❛
❡r❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❊r❧❛♥❣✱ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

′
❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡♥ ✈❡③ ❞❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s s❡ t❡♥❣❛ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r X = (X1 , ..., XN ) ✱ ❧❛ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧
❞❡ ❡①t❡♥❞❡r ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡s ✐♥♠❡❞✐❛t❛✳

✶✶✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❡stá ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s✐

fX1 ,...,XN (x1 , ..., xN ) = fX1 (x1 ) · ... · fXN (xN ) .

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ s❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞♦s ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s XN ×1 ❡ YM ×1 ✱ s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s✐

fX,Y (x1 , ..., xN , y1 , ..., yM ) = fX (x1 , ..., xN ) fY (y1 , ..., yM ) .

✺✳✹✳ ▼❡❞✐❛s✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ② ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦

❙✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s X1 , ..., XN ② g (·) ❡s ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❛s
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♦ ❡s♣❡r❛♥③❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❡s
ˆ ∞ ˆ ∞
E [g (X1 , ..., XN )] = ... g (x1 , ..., xN ) · fX1 ,...,XN (x1 , ..., xN ) · dxN · ... · dx1
−∞ −∞

❞♦♥❞❡ fX1 ,...,XN (x1 , ..., xN ) ❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ♦ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ✭❡♥t❡♥❞✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥
❡st❡ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❝❛s♦ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥❛ s✉♠❛✮✳

❈♦♠♦ ❝♦♥s❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ✐♥♠❡❞✐❛t❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞✿ ❡st❡ ♦♣❡r❛❞♦r
❡s♣❡r❛♥③❛ ♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡s ❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ s❡♥t✐❞♦ q✉❡ s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳
❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❢♦r♠❛❧✐③❛r❧♦ ❞✐❝✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ (X1 , ..., XN )′ ② α1 , ..., αN
❡s❝❛❧❛r❡s ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s

E [α1 X1 + ... + αN XN ] = α1 E [X1 ] + ... + αN E [XN ] ,

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ♣♦♥❞❡r❛❞❛ ❡s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ♣♦♥❞❡r❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s✳ P♦❞❡♠♦s tr❛t❛r ❞❡ r❡❝♦r❞❛r
❡st❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ s✐ ♣❡♥s❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡s ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❡❧ ♦♣❡r❛❞♦r ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧✱ q✉❡ ♣❛rt❡
❧❛s s✉♠❛s ② s❛❝❛ ❢✉❡r❛ ❧♦s ❡s❝❛❧❛r❡s✳

✺✳✹✳✶✳ ❈♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ② ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧

❆♥t❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ❞❡s❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ t✐❡♥❡
s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ s♦❜r❡ t♦❞♦✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❧❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❞❛♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r✳ P♦r
❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ✈✐♠♦s ❝ó♠♦ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❛❢❡❝t❛r ❡♥ ♠❛②♦r ♦ ♠❡♥♦r ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♦tr❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ s❡rí❛ ♠✉② ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡ ❞✐s♣♦♥❡r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ♥✉♠ér✐❝❛ s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ② ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛r
♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛♥t✐✜❝❛r ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ❡♥ ♣❛rt❡ ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❡❧ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡①✐st❡♥t❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✶✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊♥ ❡st❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ ❞❛❞♦ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ (X, Y )✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❧❛ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ Y ❝♦♠♦

RXY = m11 = E [XY ] ,

❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝✉❛❧ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ Y ❝♦♠♦

Cov (X, Y ) = E [(X − EX) · (Y − EY )] = E [XY ] − EX · EY = RXY − EX · EY.

▲❛ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✷ ❡s ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡①✐st❡♥t❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳ ❙❡rá ♣♦s✐t✐✈❛ s✐
❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❛♠❜❛s ❡s ❞✐r❡❝t❛ ✭s✐ ❝r❡❝❡ ✉♥❛ ❝r❡❝❡ ❧❛ ♦tr❛✮ ② ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛ s✐ ❡s ✐♥✈❡rs❛ ✭s✐ ❝r❡❝❡ ✉♥❛ ❞❡❝r❡❝❡ ❧❛
♦tr❛✮❀ ❛❞❡♠ás✱ s❡rá t❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r ❡♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❛❜s♦❧✉t♦ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠ás ❢✉❡rt❡ s❡❛ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡①✐st❡♥t❡✳

P❛r❛ ♣♦❞❡r ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❡st❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥ tér♠✐♥♦s r❡❧❛t✐✈♦s s❡ ❡st❛♥❞❛r✐③❛ ❧❛ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ❞❛♥❞♦ ❧✉❣❛r ❛ ❧♦
q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✿

Cov [X, Y ]
ρ= p .
V ar [X] · V ar [Y ]

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡t❛❧❧❛r ❝❧❛r❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ρ ② s✉ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥✿

❊st❡ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❡s s✐❡♠♣r❡ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ r❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ ✲✶ ② ✶✳

❙✐ ❡s ❝❡r♦✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ✉♥❛ ❛✉s❡♥❝✐❛ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳

❙✐ ❡s ✉♥♦ ♦ ♠❡♥♦s ✉♥♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ t♦t❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ❞✐r❡❝t❛ ♦ ✐♥✈❡rs❛ s❡❣ú♥ ❧♦
✐♥❞✐q✉❡ ❡❧ s✐❣♥♦ ✭❡st♦ ❧♦ ✈❡r❡♠♦s ❡♥s❡❣✉✐❞❛✮✳

❊♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❡sté ♠ás ❧❡❥♦s ❞❡❧ ❝❡r♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ♠ás ✐♥t❡♥s❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳

❙✐ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝❡r♦ ♦ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ RXY = EX · EY, s❡ ❞✐❝❡♥ q✉❡ s♦♥
✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s✳ P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ s✐ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s s♦♥ t❛❧❡s q✉❡ RXY = 0, s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ s♦♥ ♦rt♦❣♦♥❛❧❡s✳
❉♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s s♦♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s s✐ ❝❛r❡❝❡♥ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r t✐♣♦ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳ P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❞❡✜♥✐✲
♠♦s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ q✉❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛❜❛ ❧❛ ❛✉s❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
❡♥tr❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳ ❚❡♥❡♠♦s✱ ❛sí✱ ❞♦s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦s✱ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ q✉❡ ❡stá♥ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s✳
❊♥ ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦✱ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ X ❡ Y ✱ s♦♥ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ρX,Y = 0. ▲❛
r❛③ó♥ ❡s q✉❡✱ ♣♦r s❡r ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱

fX,Y (x, y) = fX (x) · fY (y) ,

✷ ❙✐ s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ ❧❛ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥s✐❣♦ ♠✐s♠❛✱
h i
Cov (X, X) = E [(X − EX) (X − EX)] = E (X − EX)2 = V arX,

❡st❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ s✉ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳

✶✶✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❧✉❡❣♦

ˆ ∞ ˆ ∞
RXY = xy · fX (x) · fY (y) · dy · dx
−∞ −∞
ˆ ∞ ˆ ∞
= xfX (x) dx · yfY (y) dy = EX · EY,
−∞ −∞

❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ Cov [X, Y ] = 0.

▲❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ♦❜✈✐❛ q✉❡ s✉r❣❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❧✉③ ❞❡ ❡st❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❡s✿ ➽ ② ❛❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦❄ ➽❉♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s
s❡rá♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s❄ ❖ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ ➽s✐ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡♥ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧
✭✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s✮✱ ♦❝✉rr✐rá q✉❡ t❛♠♣♦❝♦ t✐❡♥❡♥ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ t✐♣♦ ✭✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✮❄ ▲❛ r❡s♣✉❡st❛
❡s q✉❡ ♥♦ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ α ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❡♥ (0, 2π)✳ ❙❡❛♥

X = cos α
Y = sin α.

❙❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡

2π
1
ˆ
EX = cos α dα = 0
0 2π
2π
1
ˆ
EY = sin α dα = 0
0 2π
2π
1
ˆ
E [XY ] = sin α cos α dα
0 2π
2π
1
ˆ
= sin 2αdα = 0,
2π 0

♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ X ❡ Y s♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞❡♠♦str❛rs❡ ❢á❝✐❧♠❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ♥♦ s♦♥
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

◆♦t❛✳ ▲❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♠ás ❢✉❡rt❡ ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞❛rs❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❛❧ ❝❛s♦ ❡♥ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ Y ❡s ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❞❡ ♦tr❛✱ X✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ Y = aX + b✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱

ρXY = 1 · signo (a) .

▲❛ ❞❡♠♦str❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ♠✉② s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛✳ ❚❡♥❣❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡

E [XY ] = E [X (aX + b)] = aE X 2 + bE [X] ,

 

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✶✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❧✉❡❣♦

Cov (X, Y ) = E [XY ] − EX · EY

= aE X 2 + bE [X] − EX (aEX + b)
 

= a E X 2 − EX 2 = aV arX
 

h i
2
V arY = E ((aX + b) − (aEX + b))
h i h i
2 2
= E (aX − aEX) = E a2 (X − EX)
h i
2
= a2 E (X − EX) = a2 V arX,

②
Cov (X, Y ) aV arX
ρXY = √ =√ = 1 · signo (a) .
V arX · V arY V arXa2 V arX

◆♦t❛✳ ❊s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ✐♥s✐st✐r ❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ② s✉ ✈❡rs✐ó♥ ❡st❛♥❞❛r✐③❛❞❛✱ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥

❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ ♥♦ ❞❡ ♦tr♦ t✐♣♦✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛
❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✸ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s X ❡ Y ✳ ❊stá ❝❧❛r♦ q✉❡ ❛♠❜❛s ❣✉❛r❞❛♥ ✉♥❛
❝❧❛rís✐♠❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♥❛ ♣❛rá❜♦❧❛✿ ❞❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ Y = X 2 ✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ ❛♠❜❛s s❡rá ♠✉② ❜❛❥♦✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❧❛s ✉♥❡ ♥♦ ❡s ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥ ❛❜s♦❧✉t♦✱
s✐♥♦ ♣❛r❛❜ó❧✐❝❛✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧♦ r❡❝♦♠❡♥❞❛❜❧❡ s❡rí❛✱ ❛ ❧❛ ✈✐st❛ ❞❡❧ ❣rá✜❝♦✱ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ sí ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉❡rt❡
√
r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ ± Y ✳

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✸✿ ▼✉❡str❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✳

❈✉❛♥❞♦ s❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ ♣❛r❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ✈❡rs✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡❧ ❝♦❡✜✲
❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳ ❊s❛ ✈❡rs✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❛rá ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r♦ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡
❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ✭♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✮✳ ❊st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥ s❡ ❛❜♦r❞❛ ❝♦♥ ♠ás ❞❡t❛❧❧❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✳ ❆q✉í t❛♥ só❧♦
q✉❡r❡♠♦s ♣❧❛s♠❛r ❝♦♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❝ó♠♦ s❡ tr❛❞✉❝❡ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s t❡♥❣❛♥ ✉♥ ♠❛②♦r ♦ ♠❡♥♦r
❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✹ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛s ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ ♣❛r❡s ❞❡
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❡♥ ✉♥♦s ❡❥❡s ❝❛rt❡s✐❛♥♦s ✭♥✉❜❡s ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s✮✳ ❈❛❞❛ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ❡❥❡ ❝❛rt❡s✐❛♥♦ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r

✶✶✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❞❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡❧ ♣❛r (X, Y )✳ ❆♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ✹ ✜❣✉r❛s✱ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❛ ✹ s✐♠✉❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣❛r❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
(X, Y ) ❝♦♥ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✳

ro=1 ro=−1
8 6

6 5

4
4
3
2
2
0
1
−2 0

−4 −1
−4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4

ro=0 ro=0.7075
4 6

3
4
2

1 2

0 0
−1
−2
−2

−3 −4
−4 −2 0 2 4 −4 −2 0 2 4

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✹✿ ◆✉❜❡s ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❛ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛♥ X ❡ Y ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ q✉❡ ♠✐❞❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ q✉❡ tr❛♥s❝✉rr❡ ❤❛st❛ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ② ❧❛
s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❛ ✉♥❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧✐t❛ t❡❧❡❢ó♥✐❝❛✳ ▲❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
❡s fX,Y (x, y) = e−y ♣❛r❛ 0 < x < y ✳ ❊♥ ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r ②❛ ✈✐♠♦s q✉❡✱ ❧ó❣✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❤❛st❛
❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❤❛st❛ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛✱ ♣❡r♦ ➽❡♥ q✉é ❣r❛❞♦❄ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❛❜♦r❞❛r
❡st❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ ❛♠❜❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✶✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❈♦♠♦ ρX,Y = √
Cov(X,Y )
V arXV arY
, t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r Cov (X, Y )✱ V arX ② V arY.
ˆ ˆ
E [XY ] = xyfX,Y (x, y) dxdy
ˆ ∞ˆ y ∞ y
x2
ˆ 
= xye−y dxdy = ye−y dy
0 0 0 2 0
∞ 3
y −y
ˆ
= e dy = 3.
0 2

ˆ ˆ ∞
fX (x) = fX,Y (x, y) dy = e−y dy = e−x ✱ ♣❛r❛ x > 0,
x

❧✉❡❣♦ ˆ ˆ ∞
EX = xfX (x) dx = xe−x dx = 1.
0

ˆ ˆ y
fY (y) = fX,Y (x, y) dx = e−y dx = ye−y ✱ ♣❛r❛ y > 0,
0

❧✉❡❣♦ ˆ ˆ ∞
EY = yfY (y) dy = y 2 e−y dy = 2.
0

P♦r t❛♥t♦✱
Cov (X, Y ) = 3 − 1 × 2 = 1.

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱
ˆ ˆ ∞
2 2
x2 e−x dx = 2
 
E X = x fX (x) dx =
0

V arX = 2 − 12 = 1

②
ˆ ˆ ∞
E Y2 = y 2 fY (y) dy = y 3 e−y dy = 6
 
0

V arY = 6 − 22 = 2,

❛sí q✉❡✱ ✜♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱

1
ρX,Y = √ = 0.707.
1×2
❊❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❡❧ ❣r❛❞♦ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡s ❛❧t♦ ② ❞✐r❡❝t♦✳

▲❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡❧ ♦♣❡r❛❞♦r ❡s♣❡r❛♥③❛ s♦♥ ♠✉② út✐❧❡s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r
❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❧✐♥❡❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳ ❱❡❛♠♦s ❛❧❣ú♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❛❧ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ② ❞❡s♣✉és ✉♥
r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❡♥❣❧♦❜❡ t♦❞♦s✳

✶✶✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ X1 + X2 :

h i
2
E (X1 + X2 ) = E X12 + X22 + 2X1 X2 = E X12 + E X22 + 2E [X1 X2 ]
     

h i
2 2
V ar (X1 + X2 ) = E (X1 + X2 ) − E [X1 + X2 ]
2
= E X12 + E X22 + 2E [X1 X2 ] − (EX1 + EX2 )
   

= E X1 + E X2 + 2E [X1 X2 ] − EX12 − EX22 − 2EX1 EX2

 2  2

= E X12 − EX12 + E X22 − EX22 + 2 (E [X1 X2 − EX1 EX2 ])

   

= V arX1 + V arX2 + 2Cov (X1 , X2 ) .

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ X1 − X2 :

h i
2
E (X1 − X2 ) = E X12 + X22 − 2X1 X2 = E X12 + E X22 − 2E [X1 X2 ]
     

h i
2 2
V ar (X1 − X2 ) = E (X1 − X2 ) − E [X1 − X2 ]
2
= E X12 + E X22 − 2E [X1 X2 ] − (EX1 − EX2 )
   

= E X1 + E X2 − 2E [X1 X2 ] − EX12 − EX22 + 2EX1 EX2

 2  2

= E X12 − EX12 + E X22 − EX22 − 2 (E [X1 X2 − EX1 EX2 ])

   

= V arX1 + V arX2 − 2Cov (X1 , X2 ) .

PN
P♦❞❡♠♦s ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✐③❛r ❡st♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ N −✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ X = i=1 αi ·Xi .
❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱
N X
X N
V ar [X] = αi · αj · Cov (Xi , Xj ) ,
i=1 j=1

❞♦♥❞❡ Cov (Xi , Xi ) = V ar (Xi )✱ ♣❛r❛ i = 1, ..., N ✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✶✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

▲❛ ❞❡♠♦str❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❜✐❡♥ s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛✳ ❈♦♠♦ X̄ =

PN
i=1 αi · EXi ,
h
2 i
V ar [X] = E X − X̄
N N
" ! !#
X
X

=E αi · Xi − X̄i αi · Xi − X̄i
i=1 i=1
N X
X N



= αi · αj · E Xi − X̄i Xj − X̄j
i=1 j=1
N X
X N
= αi · αj · Cov (Xi , Xj )
i=1 j=1

❋✐❥é♠♦♥♦s q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s❡❛♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s✱

X N
N X N
X
V ar [X] = αi · αj · Cov (Xi , Xj ) = αi2 · V ar [Xi ] ,
i=1 j=1 i=1

②❛ q✉❡ (
0 s✐ i 6= j
Cov [X, Y ] = .
V ar [Xi ] s✐ i = j

✺✳✹✳✷✳ ❱❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✲❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r

❉❛❞♦ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ N −✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ X = (X1 , ..., XN )′ , s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ s✉ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❝♦♠♦

 
E [X1 ]
 ✳✳ 
µX = 
 ✳ ,

E [XN ]

② s✉ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✲❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❝♦♠♦

CX = (Ci,j )i,j=1,...,N ,

❞♦♥❞❡ (
V ar (Xi ) s✐ i = j
Ci,j = .
Cov (Xi , Xj ) s✐ i 6= j

❊st❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❡♥ ❧❛ ❞✐❛❣♦♥❛❧ ② ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦ (i, j) ❧❛ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛
❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ i−és✐♠❛ ② ❧❛ j−és✐♠❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳

❊♥ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠❛tr✐❝✐❛❧✱ ❧❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞❡✜♥✐rs❡ ❝♦♠♦

 ′ 
CX N ×N = E (X − µX )N ×1 (X − µX )1×N .

P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱

′
CX = E (X − µX ) (X − µX ) = E [XX ′ ] − µX µ′X ,


✶✶✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❞♦♥❞❡ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❛tr✐③ E [XX ′ ] s❡ ❧❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛r ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♦ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ② s❡

❧❡ ♥♦t❛ RX ✳
❆♠❜❛s ♠❛tr✐❝❡s✱ CX ② RX ✱ s♦♥ ♠❛tr✐❝❡s s✐♠étr✐❝❛s✳

▲❛ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ♦♣❡r❛❞♦r ♠❡❞✐❛ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛ rá♣✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ② ❧❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡

✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✲❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞❡ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❧✐♥❡❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r❡s✱ ❝♦♠♦ s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳ ❈♦♥❝r❡✲

t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ XN ×1 ❝♦♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s µX ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s CX
② ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r YM ×1 = AM ×N · XN ×1 + bM ×1 ✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ② ❧❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s
❞❡ Y ✈✐❡♥❡♥ ❞❛❞❛s ♣♦r

µY = AµX + b
CY = ACX A′ .

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦s ❝á❧❝✉❧♦s✳ P♦r

❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r V ar (X1 + X2 )✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡

!
  X1
X1 + X2 = 1 1 ,
X2

❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡

! !
  V arX1 Cov (X1 , X2 ) 1
V ar (X1 + X2 ) = 1 1
Cov (X1 , X2 ) V arX2 1
= V arX1 + V arX2 + 2Cov (X1 , X2 ) .

❉❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❢♦r♠❛✱ s✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r V ar (5X1 − 3X2 ) , ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡

!
  X1
5X1 − 3X2 = 5 −3 ,
X2

s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡

! !
  V arX1 Cov (X1 , X2 ) 5
V ar (5X1 − 3X2 ) = 5 −3
Cov (X1 , X2 ) V arX2 −3
= 25V arX1 + 9V arX2 − 30Cov (X1 , X2 ) .

✺✳✺✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

♥♦r♠❛❧ ❝♦♥st✐t✉②❡ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ♠ás r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡✱ t❛♥t♦ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ s✉ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❝❛s♦s r❡❛❧❡s ❝♦♠♦ ♣♦r

❧❛ ❣r❛♥ ✈❡rs❛t✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ s✉s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s

tr❛t❛♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦✱ ♥♦s ♦❝✉♣❛♠♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❡rs✐ó♥ ♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳ ❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✶✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❡st❛r s❡❣✉r♦s ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ♠ás ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡ ♣♦r ❞♦s ♠♦t✐✈♦s✿ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦
❡♥ ✉♥ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧❡③❛ ② ♣♦rq✉❡ s✉s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛s ♦♥ ✐♥♠❡❥♦r❛❜❧❡s✳

❯♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r N ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s X = (X1 , ..., XN )′ s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧
♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡ ♦ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♦ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✱ ❝♦♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡

♠❡❞✐❛s µX ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✲❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s CX ✱ s✐ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛

 
1 1 ′ −1
fX (x) = q · exp − (x − µX ) · CX (x − µx ) ,
N 2
(2π) det (CX )

❞♦♥❞❡

CX = (Ci,j )i,j=1,...,N
(
V ar [Xi ] s✐ i = j
Cij =
Cov [Xi , Xj ] s✐ i 6= j
′
x = (x1 , ..., xN )
′
µX = (EX1 , ..., EXN )

② s❡ ♥♦t❛ X → NN (µX ; CX ) .

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡st❛❝❛r ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❡①❝❡❧❡♥t❡s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡✳ ❈♦♥❝r❡t❛✲
♠❡♥t❡✱ ♥♦s ❝❡♥tr❛r❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❧♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✿

❈✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧ s✐❣✉❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

❈✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ s✐❣✉❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

❈✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❡s t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛r❧♦s✳ ❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r XN ×1 = (X1 , ..., XN )′ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥✲
t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛ ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s µ ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s CX ✱ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
❞❡❧ ✈❡❝t♦r✱ (Xi1 , ..., XiM )✱ ❝♦♥ M < N t❛♠❜✐é♥ s✐❣✉❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✱ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s
(µi1 , ..., µiM ) ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❝♦♥st✐t✉✐❞❛ ♣♦r ❧❛s ✜❧❛s ② ❧❛s ❝♦❧✉♠♥❛s ❞❡ CX ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❛ ❧❛s
′

✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s Xi1 , ..., XiM ✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r (X1 , X2 , X3 )′ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦✱ ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❝❡r♦ ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s
 
2 1 0
 1 3 1 .
 

0 1 1

❊♥ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ❧❛s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s ✉♥✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡s s✐❣✉❡♥ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s✿
X1 → N (0, 2) , X2 → N (0, 3) , X3 → N (0, 1)✳

✶✷✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❧❛s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s ❜✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡s s✐❣✉❡♥ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s✿

! !!
′ 0 2 1
(X1 , X2 ) → N2 ,
0 1 3
! !!
′ 0 2 0
(X1 , X3 ) → N2 ,
0 0 1
! !!
′ 0 3 1
(X2 , X3 ) → N2 ,
0 1 1

❊♥ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ❛ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s✱ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦

❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♦tr♦ s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦♣✐♦ ✈❡❝t♦r s✐❣✉❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✳ ❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ XN ×1 ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛ YM ×1 = yM ×1 ✱ s✐❡♥❞♦
′
(X, Y )(M +N )×1 ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦✱ ❡s ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛ ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s

−1
E [X |Y=y ] = µX yM ×1 − µY



N ×1 + (CXY )N ×M CY M ×M M ×1

② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✲❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s

 
V ar X |Y=y = CX − CXY CY−1 CXY
′
,

❞♦♥❞❡ ❡❧ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦ (i, j) ❞❡ CXY ❡s Cov (Xi , Yj )✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✐❣✉✐❡♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X1 ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❛

′ ′
(X2 , X3 ) = (0.5, 0.25) .
❙❡❣ú♥ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✱ ést❛ ❡s ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✱ ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s

!−1 !
  3 1 0.5 − 0
E [X1 |X2 =0.5, X3 =0.25 ] =0+ 1 0 = 0.125
1 1 0.25 − 0

② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ✭❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✮

!−1 !
  3 1 1
V ar (X1 |X2 =0.5, X3 =0.25 ) =2− 1 0 = 1.5
1 1 0

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❝❛s♦ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❝♦♥ ♠ás ❞❡t❛❧❧❡ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❜✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡✱ t❛♥t♦ ❡♥ ❧♦ q✉❡
r❡s♣❡❝t❛ ❛ s✉ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♠♦ ❛ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s ② ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✳
′
❙❡❛ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r (X, Y )2×1 ✱ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛ ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✷✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

(µX , µY ) ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s

′

!
2
σX ρσX σY
C(X,Y ) = ,
ρσX σY σY2

❞♦♥❞❡ ρ = Cov(X,Y )
❡s ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ det C(X,Y ) = σX σ Y 1 − ρ2 ②
2 2


σ X σY

1
− σXρσY
!
−1 1 2
σX
C(X,Y ) = .
1 − ρ2 − σXρσY 1
2
σY

P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ❡s

1
fX,Y (x, y) = p
2πσX σY 1 − ρ2
( " #)
2 2
−1 (x − µX ) 2ρ (x − µx ) (y − µY ) (y − µY )
· exp 2 − + .
2 (1 − ρ2 ) σX σX σY σY2

❊st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❛❧❝❛♥③❛ s✉ ♠á①✐♠♦✱ 1√

, ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ (µX , µY )✳
2πσX σY 1−ρ2

❊✈✐❞❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s s♦♥ N µX , σX

2
② N µY , σY2 ✳

❊♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ r❡s♣❡❝t❛ ❛ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✱ ❛♣❧✐❝❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡
 
σX 2
1 − ρ2


X | Y = y0 → N µX + ρ (y0 − µY ) ; σX
σY
 
σY
(x0 − µX ) ; σY2 1 − ρ2 .


Y | X = x0 → N µY + ρ
σX

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡✱ ❝✉r✐♦s❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ♥♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛✳ ❊st♦ t❡♥❞rá
✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s r❡♣❡r❝✉s✐♦♥❡s ♠ás ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡✳

❈♦♥t✐♥✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s✱ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠ás út✐❧❡s ❡s s✉ ✐♥✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❧✐♥❡❛❧❡s✳
❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ XN ×1 = (X1 , ..., XN )′ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✱ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡
♠❡❞✐❛s µX ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s CX ✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ✉♥❛ ❝♦♠❜✐♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✉②❛✱

YM ×1 = AM ×N · XN ×1 + bM ×1

t✐❡♥❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛ ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s µY = A · µX + b ② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s CY = A · CX · A′ ✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛♥ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X1 ② X2 ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛ ❝♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❛s
❝❡r♦✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s σX
2
1
= 4 ② σX
2
2
= 9 ② ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ cX1 ,X2 = 3✳ ❙✐ ❡st❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s❡ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡

✶✷✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✺✳✺✿ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❜✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡s ❝♦♥ µ X = µ Y = 0✱ σ X = σ Y = 1 ② ρ = 0, 0.5✱

−0.5 ② 0.9✳ ✭❊♥ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳✐❧r✐✳♦r❣✴■♥❢♦❙❡r✈✴❲❡❜♣✉❜✴❋✉❧❧❞♦❝s✴▲✐♥❡❛r❴▼✐①❡❞❴▼♦❞❡❧s✴❆♣♣❡♥❞✐①❉✳❤t♠✮✳
Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✷✸
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❡♥ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s

Y1 = X1 − 2X2
Y2 = 3X1 + 4X2

❧❛s ♥✉❡✈❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✱ ❝♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❛s

! ! !
′ 1 −2 0 0
(µY1 , µY2 ) = · =
3 4 0 0

② ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s

! ! ! ! !
σY2 1 cY1 ,Y2 1 −2 4 3 1 3 28 −66
= =
cY1 ,Y2 σY2 2 3 4 3 9 −2 4 −66 252

❖tr❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❡s q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡❧ ú♥✐❝♦ ❝❛s♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
s♦♥ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡s✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ XN ×1 ❡s ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s s✉s
❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s s♦♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s s✐ ② só❧♦ s✐ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

▲❛ ❞❡♠♦str❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛✳ ❨❛ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡ s✐ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s♦♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s ✭✐♥❝❧✉s♦ s✐ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
♥♦ ❡s ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✮✳ P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ♣❛r❛ ♣r♦❜❛r q✉❡ s✐ s♦♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s
só❧♦ ❤❛② q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ s✐ s♦♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s✱ ❧❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❡s ❞✐❛❣♦♥❛❧ ② ❧❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞
❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡①♣r❡s❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❡s✱ ②❛ q✉❡

 
1 1 ′ −1
fX (x1 , ..., xN ) = q exp − (x − µX ) CX (x − µX )
N 2
(2π) det (CX )
N
(  2 )
1 1X xi − µi
=q exp −
N 2 i=1 σi
(2π) σ12 ...σN
2

N
Y
= fXi (xi ) .
i=1

′ ′
❞♦♥❞❡ x = (x1 , ..., xN ) ✱ µX = (µ1 , ..., µN ) ②

 
σ12 ... 0
 ✳ ✳✳ ✳ 
CX =  ✳ ✳ ✳ .
 ✳ ✳ 
2
0 ... σN

✶✷✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

 P❛rt❡ ■■■

■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛

✶✷✺
❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✻

❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦
P♦❝❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s ② ♠✉❝❤♦ r❛③♦♥❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❝♦♥❞✉❝❡♥ ❛❧ ❡rr♦r❀ ♠✉❝❤❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s ② ♣♦❝♦
r❛③♦♥❛♠✐❡♥t♦✱ ❛ ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞✳

❆❧❡①✐s ❈❛rr❡❧

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ s❡ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡ ❧❧❛♠❛r ❧❛ ❛t❡♥❝✐ó♥ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s s♦♥
❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✳ ❙❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛ ❛sí ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ② ❞❡ ❧❛
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡♥ ❞✐✈❡rs❛s s✐t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s✳

P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦✱ t ❞❡ ❙t✉❞❡♥t✱ ❋ ❞❡ ❙♥❡❞❡❝♦r✳

✻✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❆❧ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ❞✐❥✐♠♦s q✉❡ ✈✐❡♥❡ ♠♦t✐✈❛❞♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♠✉❝❤❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s q✉❡
s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛ r❡❛❧✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛♠❜✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛s ■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛s ❡♥ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✱ ❡stá♥ s✉❥❡t❛s ❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡✳

❊s♦ q✉✐❡r❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ s✐ ♥♦s♦tr♦s ♦❜t❡♥❡♠♦s ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❡s❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✭♠✉❡str❛s✮✱ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s
♥♦ s♦♥ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s✳ ❊s ♠ás✱ s✐ ♦❜t❡♥❡♠♦s ♦tr❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ❧❛s ❞♦s ♠✉❡str❛s t❛♠♣♦❝♦ s❡rá♥ ♥✐ ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠❡♥♦s
✐❞é♥t✐❝❛s✳

P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❛❧ ❤❛❜❧❛r ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s t❡ór✐❝❛s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣r❡t❡♥❞í❛♠♦s ❡r❛ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡r ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦
q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t✐❡r❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s✱ ♥♦ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡♥ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✱ s✐♥♦ ❛ t♦❞❛s ❧❛s
♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ♠✉❡str❛s✱ ❝♦♥ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳

❘❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ q✉❡ ♣✉s✐♠♦s✿ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ s♦♥ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥ tr❛❥❡ q✉❡ ❡❧❡❣✐♠♦s ♣❛r❛
♣♦♥❡r♥♦s ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❞í❛ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ✉♥ ♣❡r✐♦❞♦ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❛♠♣❧✐♦✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ tr❛❥❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱
s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ❧❡ q✉❡❞❡ ❜✐❡♥✱ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s q✉❡ ♦❜t❡♥❣❛♠♦s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ♣♦❞rá♥
❛♣❧✐❝❛rs❡ ❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❞❛t♦ ♦ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳ P❡r♦ ✐❣✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ ✉♥ tr❛❥❡ ✭✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t❡ór✐❝❛✮ ♥♦ ❧❡ q✉❡❞❛ ❜✐❡♥ ❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s t❡ór✐❝♦s✱ ♦❜t❡♥✐❞♦s ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ✉♥❛
❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ t❡ór✐❝❛s✱ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ♥♦ s❡r r❡❛❧✐st❛s r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❡♠♣ír✐❝♦s
q✉❡ s❡ ♦❜t❡♥❣❛♥ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳

➽◗✉é ♥♦s q✉❡❞❛ ♣♦r ❤❛❝❡r ❛ ❧♦ ❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡❧ ❝✉rs♦❄ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s t❡ór✐❝❛s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥ ❞❡ ✉♥♦ ♦ ♠ás ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ♦❝✉♣❛rá ❣r❛♥ ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡❧ r❡st♦ ❞❡❧ ❝✉rs♦ ❡s tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❡❧❡❣✐r

✶✷✼
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡s♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s tr❛❥❡s ♣♦❞í❛♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❡st♦ ❡s ❝♦♠♦ ❛♣r❡♥❞❡r ❛
❡s❝♦❣❡r ❧❛ t❛❧❧❛ ❞❡❧ tr❛❥❡✳
❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♠❡♥③❛r ❝♦♥ ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❡s t❡ór✐❝❛s ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡
♠✉❡str❡♦✱ ♣r❡✈✐♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❡❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ②✱ ♣♦st❡r✐♦r♠❡♥t❡✱ ♥♦s ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❡♥tr❛r ❡♥ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s q✉❡
✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s q✉❡ s✐❣✉❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

✻✳✷✳ ▼✉❡str❡♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦

❊♥ ♠✉❧t✐t✉❞ ❞❡ á♠❜✐t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛ r❡❛❧ ❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❥♦r ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❛♣r❡♥❞❡r ❛❧❣♦ ❡s ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧❛
❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝✐❛✳ ❊s♦ q✉✐❡r❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ s♦❧❡♠♦s ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❛q✉❡❧❧♦ q✉❡ ✈❡♠♦s ♣❛r❛ ❛♣r❡♥❞❡r ♣❛✉t❛s ② ❝♦♥❞✉❝t❛s q✉❡
❧✉❡❣♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✐③❛♠♦s✳
❊♥ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛s❛ ❛❧❣♦ ♠✉② s✐♠✐❧❛r✿ ♥❡❝❡s✐t❛♠♦s ❜❛s❛r♥♦s ❡♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♣❛r❛ ♣♦❞❡r ❛♣r❡♥❞❡r
❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s ② ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✐③❛r✱ ✐♥❢❡r✐r✱ ❛s♣❡❝t♦s r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡s ❛ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s ❛ t♦❞❛ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛ r❡❛❧✱ ❡♥ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s s❡r ♠✉② ❝✉✐❞❛❞♦s♦s ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s s♦❜r❡ ❧♦s
q✉❡ ❜❛s❛♠♦s ♥✉❡str♦ ❛♣r❡♥❞✐③❛❥❡✳ ➽◗✉é ♣❛s❛rí❛ s✐ ❜❛s❛♠♦s ♥✉❡str♦ ❛♣r❡♥❞✐③❛❥❡ ❡♥ ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝✐❛s ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t❛s ♦
♣♦❝♦ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛s❄
P❛r❛ q✉❡ ❡st♦ ♥♦ ♦❝✉rr❛ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❜❛s❛r♥♦s ❡♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞♦♥❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉❡❞❛♥
✈❡rs❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞♦s✳ P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r❡s s❡❛♥ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s ♠ás ✜❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❜❡rí❛♥
s❡r ♥✉❡str❛s ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s✳
❊❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❝❧❛✈❡ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❡s ❡❧ ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✲
✈❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ X ✱ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛✳ ❨❛ ❞✐❥✐♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡
❞❡ X ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ r❡❝♦♣✐❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ r❡♣❡t✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧ q✉❡ ❡stá
❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛✱ ❝♦♥ ❞♦s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❜ás✐❝❛s✿

✶✳ ◗✉❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ t❡♥❣❛♥ ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s ♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ s❛❧✐r ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

✷✳ ◗✉❡ ❧❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡❛♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❡♥tr❡ sí✳

❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ t♦♠❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦
n✱ X1 , ..., Xn ✱ s♦♥ ❡♥ sí ♠✐s♠♦s✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s q✉❡ s✐❣✉❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✳ ❊st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s✱ ❡♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✱ ♣♦r ❧♦
q✉❡ s❡ ✐♥t❡♥t❛rá ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♣❛r❛ ❤❛❝❡r ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧❧❛ ②✱ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s✱ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛r ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳

✻✳✸✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦

❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X ✱ ② q✉❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛
s✐♠♣❧❡ s✉②❛✱ x11 , ..., x1n ✳ ❈♦♥ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ x̄1 ✱ ② ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❞❡
❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ s1 ✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✳
P❡r♦ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s s❡r ❝♦♥s❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳ ❊❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❤❛②❛♥ s❛❧✐❞♦ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s
x11 , ..., x1n ❡s ❢r✉t♦ ❞❡❧ ❛③❛r✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ s✐ ♦❜t❡♥❡♠♦s ♦tr❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ x21 , ..., x2n ✱ ♦❜t❡♥❞r❡♠♦s ♦tr❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ x̄2 ②
♦tr❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ s2 ✳

✶✷✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❨ s✐✱ s✉❝❡s✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ♦❜t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ② ♦tr❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ♦❜t❡♥❞r❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ② ♦tr❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ② ✉♥❛ ② ♦tr❛
❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳ P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ✈✐❡♥❞♦ ❡s q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛
♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ✭② ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✮ s♦♥✱ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ t❛❧❡s✱ ❞❡❜❡♥ t❡♥❡r s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ s✉ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳✳✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ r❡❝♦r❞❛r ❞♦s ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ②❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❥✐♠♦s ❛❧ ❝♦♠✐❡♥③♦ ❞❡❧ ❝✉rs♦✳

❯♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡s ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ✭♠❡❞✐❛✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ✳✳✳✮ r❡❢❡r✐❞♦ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳
❯♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❡s ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ✭♠❡❞✐❛✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ✳✳✳✮ r❡❢❡r✐❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡
✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳

P✉❡s ❜✐❡♥✱ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❛ ❡st♦s ❞♦s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦s t❡♥❡♠♦s ❛❤♦r❛ ❧❛s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐♦♥❡s✳

▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡s s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳

❊❧ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡s ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❞❡ s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦✳

❊❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❡s q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❡s ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❞✐❢í❝✐❧ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s
♠✉❡str❛❧❡s✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ r❡s✉❧t❛ ♠ás s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦ ❤❛❝❡r❧♦ ❡s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡✳ ❈♦♠♦ ✈❛♠♦s
❛ ✈❡r✱ s✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✱ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❡①❛❝t❛ ❧❛s
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳
➽❨ s✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♥♦ ❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧❄ ❙✐ ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡♠♦s ❡s ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s✱ r❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s
q✉❡ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡ ♥♦s ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ s✐ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ♦tr❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s
❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧✱ ② ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♥♦ ❡s
♥♦r♠❛❧✱ t♦❞❛✈í❛ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s t❡♥❡r ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❤❛❣❛♠♦s ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ✈á❧✐❞♦✳

✻✳✹✳ ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

♥♦r♠❛❧

❊♥ ❡st❡ ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦ s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ♣r❡s❡♥t❛r ✉♥❛ s❡r✐❡ ❞❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧
♠✉❡str❡♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥
♦❜t❡♥❡rs❡ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳
❆❧❣✉♥❛s ❞❡ ❡st❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ♣♦r ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ✈❡③✱ ❛sí q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❞❡✜♥✐r❧❛s ♣r❡✈✐❛♠❡♥t❡✳ P♦r ♦tr❛
♣❛rt❡✱ s✉s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ s♦♥ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ♣♦❝♦ tr❛t❛❜❧❡s✳ ❊st♦ ♥♦ ❡s ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❤♦② ❡♥ ❞í❛✱ ❣r❛❝✐❛s
❛❧ ✉s♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❤❛❝❡r ❞❡ ❧♦s ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦r❡s ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝á❧❝✉❧♦✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ ♣❛r❛ ♣♦❞❡r tr❛❜❛❥❛r ❝♦♥ ❡❧❧❛s
❝✉❛♥❞♦ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦r ❛ ♠❛♥♦✱ ❡①✐st❡♥ t❛❜❧❛s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r ✐♠♣r❡s❛s ❡♥ ♣❛♣❡❧ ❝♦♥ ♠✉❝❤♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s
❞❡ s✉s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳
◆♦t❛✳ ❯♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣r✐♠❡r❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ s❡rá ❧❛ χ2 ✳ ❘❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ χ2 ❝♦♥
n ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ●❛♠♠❛ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s n2 ② 12 ✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✷✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❙✐ Z ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❡st❛♥❞❛r ② S ✉♥❛ χ2 ❝♦♥ n ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✱ s✐❡♥❞♦ ❛♠❜❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥✲
❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s
Z
t= p
S/n
s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ t ❞❡ st✉❞❡♥t ❝♦♥ n ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

❙✐ S1 ② S2 s♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ χ2 ❝♦♥ n1 ② n2 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s

S1 /n1
F =
S2 /n2

s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ F ❝♦♥ n1 ② n2 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

❈♦♥ ❡st❛s ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐♦♥❡s ②❛ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❛r ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s
✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❛ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧✿

❙❡❛ X1 , ..., Xn ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ N (µ, σ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧

X̄ − µ
t= √
Sn−1 / n

s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ t ❞❡ ❙t✉❞❡♥t ❝♦♥ n − 1 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ X1 , ..., Xn ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ N (µ, σ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❡❧ ♣❛rá✲
♠❡tr♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ 2
(n − 1) Sn−1
χ2 =
σ2
s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ χ2 ❝♦♥ n − 1 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

❙❡❛♥ X1 , ..., Xn1 ❡ Y1 , ..., Yn2 ♠✉❡str❛s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s s✐♠♣❧❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s
N (µ1 , σ) ② N (µ2 , σ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧


X̄ − Ȳ − (µ1 − µ2 )
t= q ,
Sp n11 + n12

❞♦♥❞❡
2
2
1 2
(n1 − 1) Sn−1 + (n2 − 1) Sn−1
Sp2 = ,
n1 + n2 − 2
s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ t ❞❡ ❙t✉❞❡♥t ❝♦♥ n1 + n2 − 2 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

❙❡❛♥ X1 , ..., Xn1 ❡ Y1 , ..., Yn2 ♠✉❡str❛s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s s✐♠♣❧❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s
N (µ1 , σ) ② N (µ2 , σ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧

(n1 + n2 − 2) Sp2
χ2 = ,
σ2

s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ χ2 n1 + n2 − 2 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

❙❡❛♥ X1 , ..., Xn1 ❡ Y1 , ..., Yn2 ♠✉❡str❛s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s s✐♠♣❧❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s

✶✸✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

N (µ1 , σ) ② N (µ2 , σ)✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧

1

2
Sn−1 /σ12
F =
2
2
Sn−1 /σ22

s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ F ❝♦♥ n1 − 1 ② n2 − 1 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✸✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✶✸✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✼

❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛

❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
➼❉❛t♦s✱ ❞❛t♦s✱ ❞❛t♦s✦ ✲❣r✐tó ✐♠♣❛❝✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✲✳ ◆♦ ♣✉❡❞♦ ❤❛❝❡r ❧❛❞r✐❧❧♦s s✐♥ ❛r❝✐❧❧❛✳

❙❤❡r❧♦❝❦ ❍♦❧♠❡s ✭❆✳ ❈✳ ❉♦②❧❡✮✱ ❡♥ ▲❛s ❛✈❡♥t✉r❛s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❜♦♠❜❛❝❤♦s ❞❡ ❝♦❜r❡

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❙❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡♥ ❧❛s té❝♥✐❝❛s ♠ás ✉s✉❛❧❡s ♣❛r❛ ❡st✐♠❛r ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ② ♦tr♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s
♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛✐s❧❛❞♦s ✭❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧✮ ♦ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♣✉♥t✉❛❧✱ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s✱ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✱ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦
❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

✼✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❊♥ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❤❛② tr❡s ❢♦r♠❛s ❞❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐r ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❛ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✿

❊st✐♠❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦ ❞❡ ❡s❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦✳

❊st✐♠❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦✳

❚♦♠❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❤✐♣♦tét✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊❧ r❡♥❞✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡q✉✐♣♦ ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❥♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❝❛❞❡♥❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡st❛r r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❞♦
♣♦r ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞❛s✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r
✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❡♥ s✉ ❡q✉✐♣♦✳ ❊①✐st❡♥ ✈❛r✐❛s ♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✿

P♦❞rí❛ s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛r ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡s ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞❛s ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ✉♥ ú♥✐❝♦

✈❛❧♦r ❡st✐♠❛❞♦✳

P♦❞rí❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ t❡♥❣❛ ♠✉❝❤❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❡❧
✈❛❧♦r ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦✳

✶✸✸
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

P♦❞rí❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ s✉ ❡q✉✐♣♦ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❤✐♣♦tét✐❝♦ ♣❛r❛✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❞❡♠♦s✲
tr❛r ❛ ❧❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥ ♠❡❥♦r r❡♥❞✐♠✐❡♥t♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛✳

❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ♥♦s ❝❡♥tr❛r❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ② ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ q✉❡ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥ ❡♥ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r
q✉❡ ❝r❡❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡stá ❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ✭❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧✮ ♦ ❡♥ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡
❝♦♥✜❛♠♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ✭❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣♦r ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✮✳ ▲❛ t❡r❝❡r❛
♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ s❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛rá ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✳

✼✳✷✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧

✼✳✷✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ② ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡s❡❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♣✉♥t✉❛❧❡s

❯♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♣✉♥t✉❛❧✱ θ̂✱ ❡s ✉♥❛ r❡❣❧❛ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❞✐❝❡ ❝ó♠♦ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♥✉♠ér✐❝❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦
♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦✱ θ✱ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❊❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦ q✉❡ r❡s✉❧t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦✱
♣❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❛❞❛✱ s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✐ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣❛r❡❝❡ ♠ás ❧ó❣✐❝♦
s❡rí❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❝♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳ ❈❛❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡rí❛ ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥
♣✉♥t✉❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✳
➽◗✉é s❡rí❛ ❞❡s❡❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❧❡ ♣❛s❛r❛ ❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❄ ➽◗✉é ❜✉❡♥❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡❜❡rí❛ t❡♥❡r ✉♥ ❜✉❡♥
❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❄ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r ❞♦s ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♣❛r❡❝❡ ❧ó❣✐❝♦ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ s✐ ❜✐❡♥ ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♥♦ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛rá s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❡①❛❝t♦ ❞❡❧
♣❛rá♠❡tr♦✱ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ❞❡❜❡rá ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡r ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❡q✉✐✈♦q✉❡♥ ❡♥ ✐❣✉❛❧ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ♣♦r ❡①❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ♣♦r
❞❡❢❡❝t♦✳ ❊st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♥ ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦s ✳

❯♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r θ̂ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ θ s❡ ❞✐❝❡ ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦ s✐

h i
E θ̂ = θ.

 h i 
❙❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ s❡s❣♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❛ E Θ̂ − θ .

❖❜s❡r✈❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r s✐ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❡s ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦✱ ❡♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r s✉ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦✱ ♣❛r❛ ♣♦❞❡r ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r s✉ ❡s♣❡r❛♥③❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛✳
❆❞❡♠ás ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢❛❧t❛ ❞❡ s❡s❣♦✱ ♥♦s ❣✉st❛rí❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r t✉✈✐❡r❛ ♣♦❝❛
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✱ ❢✉❡r❛
❜❛❥❛✳

❊♥ ❡st❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r✱
② s❡ ♥♦t❛ s✳❡✳

✶✸✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ θ ❡s ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r θ̂ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛

♠ás ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛ ❞❡ ❡♥tr❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦s✳
❍❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡s ❢á❝✐❧ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r ❡st❡ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r✱ ② q✉❡ ❡♥ ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s s❡ ❛❞♠✐t❡ ✉♥ ❧✐❣❡r♦ s❡s❣♦
❝♦♥ t❛❧ q✉❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r s❡❛ ♠í♥✐♠❛✳

✼✳✷✳✷✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧

❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ X ✱ ② ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✉②❛✱ X1 , ..., XN ✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱

X1 + ... + XN
X̄ =
N

❡s ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ E [X] ② s✉ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❡s

σX
s.e.(X̄) = √ .
N

❊❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡ ❛❧❣♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞í❛ ❤❛❜❡rs❡ ✐♥t✉✐❞♦ ❞❡s❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♦ ❡s♣❡r❛♥③❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝❛
❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✿ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s ✭♠❛s ✮ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳✱ ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛ ❞❡
❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❡s ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳
❍❛② q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ♠✉❝❤♦ ❝✉✐❞❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ♥♦ ❝♦♥❢✉♥❞✐r ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✱ ❝♦♥ ❧❛
♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳
P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❤❛❝❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❛ σX ✱ q✉❡ ❡s ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ②✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱
❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❤❛❝❡r ❡s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛
♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ❡✈❛❧✉❛r ❡st❡ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r✳

✼✳✷✳✸✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❱❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧

❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ X ② ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ s✉②❛✱ X1 , ..., XN ✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱
PN
2
2 i=1 Xi − X̄
SX,N −1 =
N −1

❡s ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ V ar [X]✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❆❧ ❤✐❧♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛r✐♦ ♣r❡✈✐♦ q✉❡ ❤✐❝✐♠♦s s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❝♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛
♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❛❤♦r❛ q✉✐③á s♦r♣r❡♥❞❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❛♣❛r❡③❝❛ N − 1 ② ♥♦ N ✳
❊♥ ❡st❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ s✐ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r
PN
2
2 i=1 Xi − X̄
SX,N = ,
N

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✸✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

s❡ tr❛t❛rí❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♥♦ ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦✳ ❆ ❡st❡ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ s❡ ❧❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡

❝♦♠♦ ❝✉❛s✐✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳ ❖❥♦✱ ❤❛② q✉❡ ❛❞✈❡rt✐r q✉❡ ❡♥ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❧✐❜r♦s ❧❛ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ❞❡ ♥♦♠❜r❛r ❛ ❧❛
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ② ❛ ❧❛ ❝✉❛s✐✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❡s ❥✉st♦ ❛❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❊❧ q✉❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ S 2 ✱ s❡❛ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ σ 2 ✱ ♥♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❧❛
qN −1
SN −1 = SN2
❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ −1 ✱ s❡❛ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ σ ✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ sí ♦❝✉rr❡ ❛sí✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❘ ❤❡♠♦s ❣❡♥❡r❛❞♦ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡ ✶✵✵✵ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
N (0, 1)✳ ❙❛❜❡♠♦s✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✭♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✮ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡s ✵ ② q✉❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ✭♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✮
❡s ✶✳ ◆♦ ♦❜st❛♥t❡✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝❡♠♦s ❞❡ q✉é ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♣r♦❝❡❞❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ② ✈❛♠♦s ❛
tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❛r ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ t❡ór✐❝❛ ♣❛rt✐❡♥❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✿

x1×1000 = (−0.9459, −0.9557, 0.2711, 0.2603, 1.014, ...)

P❛r❛ ❡♠♣❡③❛r✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛rs❡ ❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛
❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♣♦r s✐ ést❡ r❡❝✉❡r❞❛ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧
❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✼✳✶✱ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ q✉❡ r❡❝✉❡r❞❛ ❝❧❛r❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

▲❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ✐♥♠❡❞✐❛t❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ s❡ ♦♣t❛ ♣♦r ❛❥✉st❛r ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❡s ➽q✉é ♥♦r♠❛❧❄
❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ➽q✉é ♠❡❞✐❛ ② q✉é ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ s❡ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡♥ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❛❥✉st❛r ❛ ❡st♦s ❞❛t♦s❄
❯♥❛ r❡s♣✉❡st❛ ❛ ❡st❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛
❡st♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✳ ❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱
x̄ = −0.0133

②
s999 = 0.9813,

♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❛❥✉st❛rí❛♠♦s ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ x ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

N (−0.0133, 0.9813) .

▲❛ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✼✳✶✱ ❡♥ tr❛③♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✱ ② s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛ q✉❡
❛❥✉st❛ ♠✉② ❜✐❡♥ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡❧ ❤✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✳

✶✸✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

Histograma de la muestra

0.5
0.4
0.3
Densidad

0.2
0.1
0.0

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✼✳✶✿ ❍✐st♦❣r❛♠❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ x1×1000 ❝♦♥ ✸✵ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ② ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

N (−0.0133, 0.9813)✳

✼✳✷✳✹✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧

❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛r ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ p✱ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✱ q✉❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥

s✉❝❡s♦ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱ s❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛♥ N ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦s ❛❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ②

s❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥➸ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❡s❡ s✉❝❡s♦ ❞❡❧ ❝✉á❧ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛r s✉ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ k✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛

♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱
k
p̂ = ,
N
❡s ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ p✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ s✉ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❡s

r
p(1 − p)
s.e.(p̂) =
N

❙♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r✱ ♦❜sér✈❡s❡ ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ q✉❡✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ p ❡s ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦✱ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❧❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡ s.e.(p̂)
♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡✈❛❧✉❛rs❡✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡s ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❝♦♠ú♥ q✉❡ s✐ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ N✱ ❡s ❣r❛♥❞❡✱ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐❝❡

❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥✱ p̂✱ ❡♥ ❧✉❣❛r ❞❡ p ❡♥ ❡s❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥✳

1
❉❡ t♦❞❛s ❢♦r♠❛s✱ ♦❜sér✈❡s❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ f (p) = p(1 − p) ❡s ♠❡♥♦r q✉❡
4 s✐ 0 ≤ p ≤ 1✱ ❧✉❡❣♦

r
1 1
s.e.(p̂) ≤ = √ .
4N 2 N
1
√
❊s ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ q✉❡ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❛r ❡st❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞✱ ✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦t❛ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❞❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r✳
2 N

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✐ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r♦♥❡s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✶✵✵✵ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ✺✵✼✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s

❛♣r♦①✐♠❛r ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❛r♦♥❡s ❡♥ t♦❞❛ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡

507
p̂ = = 0.507,
1000

❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ♣♦r ❞❡❜❛ ❥♦ ❞❡ √1 = 0.01581139✳ ▲❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❞❡ ❧❛
2 1000

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✸✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ s❡rí❛ 0.507 × 0.493/1000 = 0.01580984✿ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s s♦♥ ✐♥❛♣r❡❝✐❛❜❧❡s✳
p

✼✳✷✳✺✳ ❖❜t❡♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♣✉♥t✉❛❧❡s✳ ▼ét♦❞♦s ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥

❍❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛ ❤❡♠♦s ♣✉❡st♦ ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♦ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥
♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ♥♦s♦tr♦s ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦ ♠✉❝❤❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s t❡ór✐❝❛s
q✉❡ ♥♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥ ❞✐r❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♦ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❧❛ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ p✱ ❧❛ ●❛♠♠❛
❞❡ ❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✱ a ② λ✱ ✳✳✳ ➽❈ó♠♦ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❡st♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s❄
❊①✐st❡♥ ❞✐✈❡rs♦s ♠ét♦❞♦s ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✳ ◆♦s♦tr♦s ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r ❞♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠ás s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦s✳

✼✳✷✳✺✳✶✳ ▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ só❧♦ ♣❛r❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ✉♥♦ ♦ ❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s✱ q✉❡ s♦♥ ❧❛s
ú♥✐❝❛s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦ ♥♦s♦tr♦s✳
❙❡❛ x1 , ..., xn ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X ✿

✶✳ ❙✐ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ✉♥ só❧♦ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦✱ θ✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡ X, E [X] = µ✱ s❡rá

❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ θ, µ = f (θ)✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡
  ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ θ, θ̂, s❡
♦❜t✐❡♥❡ ❞❡s♣❡❥á♥❞♦❧♦ ✭s✐ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡✮ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡❝✉❛❝✐ó♥ x̄ = f θ̂ ✳
✷✳ ❙✐ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✱ θ1 ② θ2 ✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡ X, E [X] = µ✱ s❡rá
❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛♠❜♦s, µ = f (θ1 , θ2 ) ❡ ✐❣✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❡st❛rá ❡①♣r❡s❛❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ❡st♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✱ V arX = σ 2 = g (θ1 , θ2 )✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s
♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ θ1 ② θ2 , θ̂1 ② θ̂2 , s❡ ♦❜t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞❡s♣❡❥á♥❞♦❧♦s ✭s✐ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡✮ ❞❡❧ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❡❝✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s
 
x̄ = f θ̂1 , θ̂2
 
s2n−1 = g θ̂1 , θ̂2 .

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳
n ✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❞❛❞❛ ✉♥❛
❊♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡ EX = np, ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ p = EX
♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ N ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ♣r♦♣♦♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❞❡ p ❛
x̄
p̂ = .
n

P♦r ❝✐❡rt♦✱ ❡st❡ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❤❛❜í❛♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞♦ ❡♥ ✉♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ q✉❡ ❡r❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥
♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ p̂ = k/N ✱ ♣❡r♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❤❛❜❡r ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❝♦♥❢✉s✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❱❡❛♠♦s ♣♦rq✉é✳
❙❡ s✉♣♦♥❡ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ N ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ n✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱
t❡♥❡♠♦s n ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s✱ N ✈❡❝❡s✱ ♦ s❡❛✱ ✉♥ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ n × N ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s✱ ❝♦♥ i xi é①✐t♦s✳ ▲✉❡❣♦✱ ❡♥
P

❡❢❡❝t♦✱ P
x̄ i xi
p̂ = = ,
n n×N
❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡❧ ♥➸ ❞❡ é①✐t♦s ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ ♥➸ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s✳ ◆♦ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s
❝♦♥❢✉♥❞✐r♥♦s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥ k/N q✉❡ ♣✉s✐♠♦s ❛♥t❡s ♣♦rq✉❡ N ♥♦ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛ ❧♦ ♠✐s♠♦ ❡♥ ❛♠❜♦s ❝❛s♦s✳

✶✸✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

1 1
❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡ EX = p − 1✱ ❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡ p = 1+EX ✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦

❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ♣r♦♣♦♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❛

1
p̂ = .
1 + x̄

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✳ ❙❡ s❛❜❡ q✉❡

a (1 − p)
EX =
p
a (1 − p)
V arX =
p2

❉❡ ❡st❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❞❡s♣❡❥❛r a ② p✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡

EX
= p,
V arX

s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡
EX
p EX 2
a = EX × = EX × V arX =
1−p 1 − VEX
arX
V arX − EX
❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡♥ ❝♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s

x̄
p̂ =
s2X,N −1
x̄2
â = .
s2X,N −1 − x̄

✼✳✷✳✺✳✷✳ ▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞

❊st❡ ♠ét♦❞♦ ♦❜❡❞❡❝❡ ❛ ✉♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ ♠✉② ❧ó❣✐❝♦✿ ❞❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❡s❝♦❥❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛q✉❡❧❧♦s

✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s q✉❡ ❤❛❣❛♥ ♠ás ❝r❡✐❜❧❡s✱ ♠ás ✈❡r♦sí♠✐❧❡s✱ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

P❛r❛ ❞❡s❛rr♦❧❧❛r ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛

✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ X ✱ x1 , ..., xn ✱ ② ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s p (x)✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦

❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡s

p (x1 , ..., xn ) = p (x1 ) ...p (xn ) .

❊st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❡♥ ❝✐❡rt♦ ♠♦❞♦ ❧❛ ❝r❡❞✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

❉❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ♦ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ p (x) , q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ✉♥♦
♦ ❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✱ ② ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡ X ✱ x1 , ..., xn ✱ ❧❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛

❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥

L = p (x1 ) ...p (xn ) ,

❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡rá ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✸✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❉❛❞❛ ❧❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ L✱

s✐ L ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ✉♥ só❧♦ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦✱ θ✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♠á①✐♠♦✲✈❡r♦sí♠✐❧ ❞❡ θ s❡ ♦❜t✐❡♥❡
r❡s♦❧✈✐❡♥❞♦ ❡❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠♦ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿

 
θ̂ = arg máx L .
θ

s✐ L ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✱ θ1 ② θ2 ✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♠á①✐♠♦✲✈❡r♦sí♠✐❧❡s ❞❡

θ1 ② θ2 s❡ ♦❜t✐❡♥❡♥ r❡s♦❧✈✐❡♥❞♦ ❡❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠♦ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿

   
θ̂1 , θ̂2 = arg máx L .
θ1 ,θ2

◆♦t❛✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♠á①✐♠♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♠á①✐♠♦ ❞❡ s✉ ❧♦❣❛r✐t♠♦✱ s✉❡❧❡ s❡r ♠✉② út✐❧

♠❛①✐♠✐③❛r ❡❧ ❧♦❣❛r✐t♠♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞ ❡♥ ✈❡③ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♠á①✐♠♦ ✈❡r♦sí♠✐❧ ❞❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ p ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ B (n, p)
❜❛s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ x1 , ..., xN ✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞ ❡s

N  
Y n n−x
Lx1 ,...,xN (p) = pxi (1 − p) i

i=1
x i

N  
!
Y n PN
nN − N
P
i=1 xi
= p i=1 xi (1 − p) .
i=1
x i

❙✉ ❧♦❣❛r✐t♠♦ r❡s✉❧t❛

N   N N
! ! !
Y n X X
ln Lx1 ,...,xN (p) = ln + xi × ln p + nN − xi ln (1 − p) .
i=1
xi i=1 i=1

P❛r❛ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛r ❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡r✐✈❛♠♦s r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ p ❡ ✐❣✉❛❧❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❡r♦✿

PN PN
i=1 xi nN − i=1 xi
− = 0,
p 1−p

❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡
PN x̄
p i=1 xi x̄
= PN = = n x̄ .
1−p nN − i=1 xi n − x̄ 1− n

▲✉❡❣♦ ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❡s
x̄
p̂ = .
n
❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r q✉❡ ♦❜t✉✈✐♠♦s ♣♦r ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♠á①✐♠♦ ✈❡r♦sí♠✐❧ ❞❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ exp (λ)
❜❛s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ x1 , ..., xN ✳

✶✹✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✿
N
Y PN
Lx1 ,...,xN (λ) = λe−λxi = λN e−λ i=1 xi
.
i=1

▲♦❣❛r✐t♠♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✿

N
X
ln Lx1 ,...,xN (λ) = N ln λ − λ xi .
i=1

P❛r❛ ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛r ❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥✱ ❞❡r✐✈❛♠♦s r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ λ ❡ ✐❣✉❛❧❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❡r♦✿

N
N X
− xi = 0,
λ i=1

❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡
N 1
λ̂ = PN = .
i=1 xi x̄

❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♠á①✐♠♦ ✈❡r♦sí♠✐❧ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❞♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✳ ❱❡❛♠♦s ❝ó♠♦ ♣r♦❝❡❞❡r ❡♥ ❡st❛

s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ♣r❡♦❝✉♣❛r♥♦s ♣♦r ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✿

▲❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✿

N N 2
(xi −µ)2
 Pn

Y 1 1 i=1 (xi −µ)
Lx1 ,...,xN µ, σ 2 = √ e− 2σ2 = √ e− 2σ 2 .
i=1 2πσ 2 2πσ 2

❙✉ ❧♦❣❛r✐t♠♦✿
PN 2
N N (xi − µ)
ln Lx1 ,...,xN µ, σ 2 = − ln (2π) − ln σ 2 − i=1



.
2 2 2σ 2
❉❡❜❡♠♦s ♠❛①✐♠✐③❛r ❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♠♦ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ µ ② σ2 ✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱ ❞❡r✐✈❛♠♦s r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ❛♠❜❛s

✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❡ ✐❣✉❛❧❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❡r♦✿

PN
d 2 (xi − µ)
ln Lx1 ,...,xN µ, σ = i=1 2


=0
dµ σ
PN 2
d 2

N 1 i=1 (xi − µ)
ln L x ,...,x µ, σ = − + 2 =0
dσ 2 1 N
2σ 2 2 (σ 2 )

❉❡ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❡❝✉❛❝✐ó♥ s❡ s✐❣✉❡

N
X N
X
(xi − µ) = xi − N µ = 0,
i=1 i=1

❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡
PN
i=1 xi
µ̂ = = x̄.
N

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✹✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

▼♦❞❡❧♦ ❊st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♣♦r ❡❧ ❊st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♣♦r ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦

♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞
B (n, p) p̂ = nx̄ p̂ = nx̄
P (λ) λ̂ = x̄ λ̂ = x̄
1 1
Geo (p) p̂ = 1+x̄ p̂ = 1+x̄
2
x̄ x̄
BN (a, p) â = s2X,N −1 −x̄
, p̂ = s2X,N −1
❙ó❧♦ ♣♦r ♠ét♦❞♦s ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s

1 1
exp (λ) λ̂ = x̄ λ̂ = x̄
x̄2 x̄
Gamma (a, λ) â = s2 , λ̂ = s2n−1
❙ó❧♦ ♣♦r ♠ét♦❞♦s ♥✉♠ér✐❝♦s
n−1
N (µ, σ) µ̂ = x̄, σ̂ = sn−1 µ̂ = x̄, σ̂ = sn

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✼✳✶✿ ❊st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♣♦r ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ② ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ❧❛s

❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠ás ✉s✉❛❧❡s✳

❉❡ ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛✱ s✉st✐t✉②❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧❧❛ µ ♣♦r x̄,

PN 2
i=1 (xi − x̄) N
2 = ,
(σ 2 ) σ2

❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡
PN 2
2 (xi − x̄)
σ̂ = i=1
= s2n .
N

◆♦t❛✳ ❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❤❛② q✉❡ ❧❧❛♠❛r ❧❛ ❛t❡♥❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❜✉s❝❛❞♦ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r✱ ❞❡

♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✱ ❞❡ σ2 ✱ ♥♦ ❞❡ σ✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ♥♦ ❡s ♠✉② ❞✐❢í❝✐❧ ❞❡♠♦str❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❞❡

♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞ ❞❡ σ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❡s ❧❛ ❝✉❛s✐❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ sn ✳

✼✳✷✳✻✳ ❚❛❜❧❛ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s

♠ás ❝♦♠✉♥❡s

❊♥ t♦❞❛ ❡st❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ x1 , ..., xN ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X✳ ▲♦s

❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s s❡❣ú♥ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ② ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s s❡❣ú♥ ❧❛s ❞✐str✐✲

❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❞❡s❝r✐t♦ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✼✳✶✳

✼✳✸✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣♦r ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛

❙❡❛ x1 , ..., xN ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ✈✳❛✳ X ❝✉②❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦

θ✳ ❯♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ θ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ α✱ I (x1 , ..., xN ) , ❡s ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ r❡❛❧
q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ♣❡r♦ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ θ t❛❧ q✉❡

P [θ ∈ I (x1 , ..., xN )] = 1 − α.

❆❧ ✈❛❧♦r 1−α t❛♠❜✐é♥ s❡ ❧❡ ❧❧❛♠❛ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

✶✹✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

Confidence intervals based on z distribution Confidence intervals based on z distribution Confidence intervals based on z distribution

50

50

50
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40

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40
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30

30

30
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Index

Index

Index
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20

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20
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10

10

10
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0

0
−0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 −0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 −1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0

Confidence Interval Confidence Interval Confidence Interval

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✼✳✷✿ ❉✐st✐♥t♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❛ ✉♥ ✻✽ ✪ ✭✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✮✱ ❛ ✉♥ ✾✵ ✪ ✭❝❡♥tr♦✮ ②
❛ ✉♥ ✾✾ ✪ ✭❞❡r❡❝❤❛✮✳ P✉❡❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛rs❡ q✉❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛r ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❤❛❝❡ ♠ás ❛♠♣❧✐♦s ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s✳
❚❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛rs❡ q✉❡ ♥♦ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ✭✵✮✱ ♣❡r♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥➸
❞❡ ést♦s ♠❛❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞✐s♠✐♥✉②❡ ❝♦♥❢♦r♠❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛♠♦s ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ✜❧♦s♦❢í❛ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r✱ ❜❛sá♥❞♦♥♦s ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ✉♥❛
r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞♦♥❞❡ t❡♥❣❛♠♦s ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❡❧
❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♣✉♥t✉❛❧❡s✱ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡
✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ s❡ ❞❛ ♣♦r ❤❡❝❤♦ q✉❡ ❡①✐st❡ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r♦ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ θ ♥♦ q✉❡❞❡
❡♥❝❡rr❛❞♦ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ❝♦s❛ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr✐rí❛ ❝♦♥ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ α✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❆❧ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧
❝♦♠✐❡♥③♦ ❞❡❧ ❝✉rs♦ ❤❡♠♦s ❛❞♦♣t❛❞♦ ✉♥❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t✐st❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡
❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛ q✉❡ s✐ t♦♠❛♠♦s ✶✵✵ ♠✉❡str❛s ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❡st❛rá
❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❡♥ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ✾✺ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❝♦♥str✉✐❞♦s✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡st❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❛❜s✉r❞❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♥♦s♦tr♦s ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✶✵✵ ♠✉❡str❛s✱
s✐♥♦ só❧♦ ✉♥❛✳
◆♦s♦tr♦s t❡♥❡♠♦s ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❈♦♥ ❡❧❧♦s ❝♦♥str✉✐♠♦s ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳ ❨ ❛❤♦r❛ só❧♦
❝❛❜❡♥ ❞♦s ♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✿ ♦ ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❡stá ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ♦ ♥♦ ❧♦ ❡stá✳ ❊❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❡s ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡✱
② ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ t❛♠❜✐é♥✳ ➼◆♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡♣❡t✐r ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✦ ❊s ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡
❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ✱ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❞❡❧ ✾✺ ✪ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❡st❛rá ❞❡♥tr♦✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✹✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✼✳✸✳✶✳ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ µ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ σ 2 ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛
x = (x1 , ..., xN ) ❞❡ X ✱ ② x̄ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱
  
σ σ
P µ ∈ x̄ − z1− α2 √ , x̄ + z1− α2 √ = 1 − α,
N N

❞♦♥❞❡ z1− α2 ❛ ❡s t❛❧ q✉❡ FZ z1− α2 = 1 − α2 ✱ s✐❡♥❞♦ Z → N (0, 1) .

❛ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ z1− α ❞❡❜❡ ❜✉s❝❛rs❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♦ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛rs❡ ❝♦♥ ❛②✉❞❛ ❞❡❧ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦r✳
2

❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦

 
σ σ
x̄ − z1− α2 √ , x̄ + z1− α2 √
N N

❝♦♥ ✉♥ (1 − α) ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳
◆♦ ♦❜st❛♥t❡✱ ❤❛② q✉❡ r❡❝♦♥♦❝❡r q✉❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ❡s ♣♦❝♦ ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦③❝❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛
② sí s❡ ❝♦♥♦③❝❛ ❡❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❡ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❡s ♠✉② ❧✐♠✐t❛❞❛✳ ❊❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡
r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ♣r❡❝✐s❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ♥❡❝❡s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡①t❡♥❞❡r ❡❧ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r ❝✉❛♥❞♦ s❡ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ µ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ σ 2 , ❛♠❜❛s ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛s✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛
x = (x1 , ..., xN ) ❞❡ X ✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ x̄ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s2X,N −1 ✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱
  s s 
s2X,N −1 s2X,N −1
P µ ∈ x̄ − t1− α2 ;N −1 , x̄ + t1− α2 ;N −1  = 1 − α,
N N

❞♦♥❞❡ tα;N ❛ ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r t❛❧ q✉❡ FTN (tα;N ) = α✱ s✐❡♥❞♦ TN ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❚ ❞❡ ❙t✉❞❡♥t ❝♦♥ N
❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

❛ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ t1− α ❞❡❜❡ ❜✉s❝❛rs❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ t ♦ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛rs❡ ❝♦♥ ❛②✉❞❛ ❞❡❧ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦r
2

❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❝♦♥✜❛♠♦s ❡♥ ✉♥ (1 − α) ✪ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦

 s s 
s2X,N −1 s2X,N −1
x̄ − t1− α ;N −1 , x̄ + t1− α2 ;N −1 
2
N N

❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❘ ❤❛❜í❛♠♦s s✐♠✉❧❛❞♦ ✶✵✵✵ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ N (0, 1)✳ ▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛
❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❡s♦s ✶✵✵✵ ✈❛❧♦r❡s r❡s✉❧t❛r♦♥ s❡r x̄ = −0.0133 ② s999 = 0.9813✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱
❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s
 
0.9813
−0.0133 ∓ 1.96 √ = (−0.074, 0.0475)
1000

✶✹✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ µ = 0✱ ❡stá ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

▲♦s ❞♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s q✉❡ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛r s❡ ❜❛s❛♥ ❡♥ q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①❛❝t❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱
♥♦r♠❛❧✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ❞❡❞✉❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s✐❣✉❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥✱ ② ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❡①❛❝t❛✱ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ µ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ σN ✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❣r❛❝✐❛s ❛❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ❧í♠✐t❡ s❡ s❛❜❡ q✉❡ s❡❛ ❝✉❛❧
2

s❡❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ s✐❣✉❡ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡
✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ µ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ σN ✱ ②❛ q✉❡ s❡ ♦❜t✐❡♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ✈✳❛✳ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦♥
2

❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳ P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r
♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ❝♦♠♦ s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ µ, ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✱ ② ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ σ 2 . ❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛
x = (x1 , ..., xN ) ❞❡ X ② ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ x̄. ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ s✐ N ❡s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧❡✈❛❞♦ ✭N > 30 ❡s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡✮✱
  
σ σ
P µ ∈ x̄ − z1−α/2 √ , x̄ + z1−α/2 √ ≃ 1 − α.
N N

❊♥ ❡st❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥✱ s✐ σ ❡s ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ s✉st✐t✉✐rs❡ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ sn−1 ✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P❛r❛ ❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛r ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡❧ ❜✉✛❡r ❞❡ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡♠ ❆❉❙▲ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ❡st✐♠❛r ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦
❞❡ ♣❛q✉❡t❡s ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ♣♦r ♠✐❧✐s❡❣✉♥❞♦ q✉❡ r❡❝✐❜❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡♠✳
❙❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ✭❡♥ ♠✐❧✐s❡❣✉♥❞♦s✮ q✉❡ tr❛♥s❝✉rr❡ ❡♥tr❡ ♣❛q✉❡t❡ ② ♣❛q✉❡t❡ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉✲
❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✳ ❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s µ = λ1 ✱ t✐❡♠♣♦ ♠❡❞✐♦
❡♥tr❡ ♣❛q✉❡t❡s✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ λ ❡s ♣r❡❝✐s❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ♣❛q✉❡t❡s ♣♦r ♠✐❧✐s❡❣✉♥❞♦ q✉❡ r❡❝✐❜❡ ❡❧
♠♦❞❡♠✳ P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ ❡❧ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦ ❡s ❡st✐♠❛r ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❡❧ q✉❡ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛rá ♣❛r❛ ❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛r
❡❧ ♠♦❞❡♠✳
▼❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥ s♥✐✛❡r ❛❝♦♣❧❛❞♦ ❛❧ ♠♦❞❡♠ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛♣t✉r❛r ❞❛t♦s ❞❡❧ trá✜❝♦✱ s❡ t♦♠❛♥ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s t✐❡♠♣♦s
❡♥tr❡ ♣❛q✉❡t❡s ❞❡ ✶✵✵✶ ♣❛q✉❡t❡s✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ ✶✵✵✵ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦s ❡♥tr❡ ♣❛q✉❡t❡s✳ ▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛
❞❡ ❡st♦s t✐❡♠♣♦s r❡s✉❧t❛ s❡r x̄ = 2.025✱ s✐❡♥❞♦ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ 1.921✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ✭❛❧ ✾✺ ✪✮ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱
µ✿
 
sn−1 sn−1 1.921
x̄ − z0.975 √ , x̄ + z0.975 √ = 2.025 ∓ 1.96 × √ = (1.906, 2.144).
n n 1000

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ λ = µ1 , ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ λ ❡s 1 1

2.144 , 1.906 = (0.466, 0.525) .
❆ tít✉❧♦ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐✈♦✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡♠ ❡s ✉♥ ♠ú❧t✐♣❧♦ ✭❡❧
❞♦❜❧❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✮ ❞❡❧ ❡①tr❡♠♦ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✱ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ ✵✳✺✷✺✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✹✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✼✳✸✳✷✳ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥

❙❡❛ p ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡✈❡♥t♦✱ q✉❡ ❧❧❛♠❛r❡♠♦s é①✐t♦✱ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♦❝✉rr✐r ❡♥
✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ N r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡❧
❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦✱ ② s❡❛ p̂ = Nk ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ é①✐t♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ s✐ N ❡s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧❡✈❛❞♦
✭N > 30✮✱ s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡
" r r !#
p̂ (1 − p̂) p̂ (1 − p̂)
P p∈ p̂ − z1−α/2 , p̂ + z1−α/2 ≃ 1 − α.
N N

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲❛ ❏✉♥t❛ ❞❡ ❆♥❞❛❧✉❝í❛ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡ ✐♠♣❧❛♥t❛r ✉♥ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❛②✉❞❛ ❛ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛s ❝♦♥ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛r❡s
❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❛②♦r ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❙❡r✈✐❝✐♦s ❙♦❝✐❛❧❡s s♦♥ ❝♦♠♣❡t❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣✐♦s✱ ❧❛
❏✉♥t❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛rá ❧♦s ♠❡❞✐♦s ❡❝♦♥ó♠✐❝♦s✱ ♣❡r♦ s❡rá♥ ést♦s ❧♦s ❡♥❝❛r❣❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❡❥❡❝✉t❛r ❡❧ ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛✳
▲♦s ❙❡r✈✐❝✐♦s ❙♦❝✐❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣✐♦ ❛s✉♠❡♥ q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ❡rr♦r❡s ✐♥❡✈✐t❛❜❧❡s✱ ♥♦ t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛s
❛ ❧❛s q✉❡ s✉❜✈❡♥❝✐♦♥❛♥ r❡✉♥❡♥ ❧♦s r❡q✉✐s✐t♦s ❡①✐❣✐❞♦s✱ ♣❡r♦ ❧❛ ❏✉♥t❛ ❧❡s r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜✐❧✐③❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡st♦ ♥♦
♦❝✉rr❛ ❡♥ ♠ás ❞❡❧ ✹ ✪ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳ ❙✐ s❡ s✉♣❡r❛ ❡st❡ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡✱ ♣❡♥❛❧✐③❛rá ❛❧ ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣✐♦✳
❊♥ ✉♥ ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣✐♦ s❡ ♠✉❡str❡❛♥ ✷✵✵ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛s ② s❡ ❞❡t❡❝t❛ q✉❡ ✶✷ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s ✭✻ ✪✮ ♥♦ ❝✉♠♣❧❡♥ ❧❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s
❡①✐❣✐❞❛s✳ ➽❉❡❜❡ ❧❛ ❏✉♥t❛ s❛♥❝✐♦♥❛r ❛❧ ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣✐♦❄
❙✐ ♥♦s ✜❥❛♠♦s só❧♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧✱ ✻ ✪✱ sí ❞❡❜❡rí❛ ❤❛❝❡r❧♦✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ s❡rí❛ ❥✉st♦✿ ✶✷
❡rr♦r❡s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✷✵✵ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ♥♦ s❡r ✉♥❛ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ s✉♣❡r❛r❛ ❡❧
✹ ✪✳
❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥ ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡rr♦r❡s ✭✺ ✪ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✮ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s
❞❛t♦s ♦❜t❡♥✐❞♦s✿ r
0.06(1 − 0.06)
0.06 ∓ 1.96 = (0.027, 0.093).
200
P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ♥♦ ❤❛② ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ s❡❛ s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❛❧ ✹ ✪ ② ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ s❛♥❝✐♦♥❛rs❡ ❛❧ ♠✉♥✐❝✐♣✐♦✳

✼✳✸✳✸✳ ■♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛

❆♥á❧♦❣❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❞❛rs❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ♦ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✱
♣❡r♦ só❧♦ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✳ ❆♠❜♦s ❝❛s♦s s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡
r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳

❙❡❛ X ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ µ ✭❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✮ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ σ 2 ✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛
x = (x1 , ..., xN ) ❞❡ X ② ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ x̄. ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s❛ ✿
"P #
N 2 PN 2
i=1 (Xi − x̄) i=1 (Xi − x̄)
P < σ2 < = 1 − α.
χ21− α ;N −1 χ2α ;N −1
2 2

❛ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ χ2α/2;N −1 χ21−α/2;N −1 ② ❞❡❜❡ ❜✉s❝❛rs❡ ❡♥ ❧❛s t❛❜❧❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ χ2 ✉ ♦❜t❡♥❡rs❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦r✳

✶✹✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊♥ ❡st❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥✱ χ2α;N ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❛q✉❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r t❛❧ q✉❡ Fχ2 χ2α;N = α✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ χ2 s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥

χ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ N ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

◆♦t❛ ✳ ❯♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡rs❡ tr✐✈✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ r❛✐③ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞❛
❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ✶✵✵✵ ✈❛❧♦r❡s s✐♠✉❧❛❞♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ N (0, 1) t❡♥í❛♠♦s q✉❡ x̄ =
−0.0133 ② s999 = 0.9813✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡

N
2
X
(Xi − x̄) = 999 × s2999 ,
i=1

❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪ q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛ ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❡s

 
961.9867 961.9867
, = (0.8838, 1.0533) .
1.0885 × 103 913.3010

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ σ = 1 ♣❡rt❡♥❡❝❡ ❛❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪✳

P✉❡❞❡ q✉❡ ❛❧❣✉♥♦ ❞❡ ✈♦s♦tr♦s ❡sté ♣❡♥s❛♥❞♦ ❝✉á❧ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ❡❧ ✐♥t❡rés ❞❡ ❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣✉♥t✉❛❧❡s ②✱ s♦❜r❡
t♦❞♦✱ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳ Pr♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ t♦❞♦s t❡♥❡♠♦s ♠✉② ❝❧❛r♦ q✉é ❡s ✉♥❛
♠❡❞✐❛✱ ✐♥❝❧✉s♦ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ♣❡r♦ q✉✐③á s❡ ♥♦s ❡s❝❛♣❡ ❧❛ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥❝✐❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳
❊♥ ❡st❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ ❤❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ ♠✉❝❤ís✐♠♦ ❡♥ ❧♦ q✉❡
s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧ ❞❡ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞✳ ▲♦s ❥❛♣♦♥❡s❡s s♦♥✱ ❡♥ ❡st♦✱ ❧♦s ♣✐♦♥❡r♦s ② q✉✐③á ❧♦s ♠❡❥♦r❡s ❡①♣❡rt♦s✳ ❆
❡❧❧♦s s❡ ❧❡s ❛tr✐❜✉②❡ ✉♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ ❜ás✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr♦❧ ❞❡ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❜ás✐❝♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✿ ❧❛
r❡❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡s ❧❛ ❝❧❛✈❡ ❞❡❧ é①✐t♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✳

P❡♥s❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ❢❛❜r✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♥ér✐❝♦✳ ❊♥ é❧ s❡ tr❛t❛rá ❞❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ s✉❥❡t♦ ❛ ✉♥❛s
❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛s✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ✐♥❤❡r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧ ♣r♦✈♦❝❛rá✿

✶✳ ❯♥ ❛✉♠❡♥t♦ ♦ ✉♥❛ ❞✐s♠✐♥✉❝✐ó♥ ❡str✉❝t✉r❛❧❡s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦✳ ❊st♦ ♣♦❞rí❛
❞❡t❡❝t❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥ s❡s❣♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦ ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞♦ ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦✳

✷✳ ❯♥❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ♠ás ♦ ♠❡♥♦s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s ❡♥ ❧♦s ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦s r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡s✱ q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛♥ s❡r ❡✈❛❧✉❛❞❛s
♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳

❉❡ ❡s❛s ❞♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ♣r♦❜❧❡♠át✐❝❛s✱ ❧❛ ♠ás ❝♦♠♣❧❡❥❛✱ s✐♥ ❞✉❞❛ ❡s ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛✳ Pr♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ❡s ✉♥ ❣r❛✈❡
♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛r ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ q✉❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ s❡ s✐tú❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦✱ ♣❡r♦ s❡rá s✐♥ ❞✉❞❛
♠ás ❝♦♠♣❧❡❥♦ ♠♦❞✐✜❝❛r❧❛ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ♣r♦❞✉③❝❛ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠ás ❤♦♠♦❣é♥❡❛✱ r❡❞✉❝✐❡♥❞♦ ❛sí ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳

✼✳✸✳✹✳ ❖tr♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛

❙❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡r ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✱
♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s ♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✱ ❡♥tr❡ ♦tr♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡rés✳
❆s✐♠✐s♠♦✱ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧❡s ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s
♠❡♥❝✐♦♥❛❞♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❛❝♦t❛❞♦s só❧♦ ❛ ✉♥ ❧❛❞♦✱ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❜✐❧❛t❡r❛❧❡s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦
❛q✉í✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✹✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

◆♦ ♦❜st❛♥t❡✱ ♥♦ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡t❛❧❧❛r❧♦s ❛q✉í✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ s✉ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❛♥á❧♦❣❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛

q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦✳ ❈✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣❛q✉❡t❡ ❞❡ s♦❢t✇❛r❡ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r ❡st♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s s✐♥ ❞✐✜❝✉❧t❛❞✳

✼✳✹✳ ❘❡s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦

❘❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❛❧ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ ❞❡❧ ❝✉rs♦ ♣❧❛♥t❡á❜❛♠♦s ✉♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❛rtí❝✉❧♦ ♣✉❜❧✐❝❛❞♦ ❡♥

❏♦✉r♥❛❧ ♦❢ ❊♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t❛❧ ❊♥❣✐♥❡❡r✐♥❣ ❡♥ ✷✵✵✷✱ t✐t✉❧❛❞♦ ✏▲❡❛❝❤❛t❡ ❢r♦♠ ▲❛♥❞ ❉✐s♣♦s❡❞ ❘❡s✐❞❡♥t✐❛❧ ❈♦♥s✲

tr✉❝t✐♦♥ ❲❛st❡✑✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ s❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❜❛s✉r❡r♦s q✉❡ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞❡s❡❝❤♦s ❞❡

❝♦♥str✉❝❝✐ó♥ ② ❞❡s♣❡r❞✐❝✐♦s ❞❡ ❞❡♠♦❧✐❝✐♦♥❡s✳ ❉❡❝í❛♠♦s ❛❧❧í q✉❡ ❉❡ ✉♥ s✐t✐♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ s❡ t♦♠❛r♦♥ ✹✷ ♠✉❡str❛s
❞❡ ❧✐①✐❛❞♦✱ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝✉❛❧❡s ✷✻ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦✳ ❯♥❛ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r❛ ❞❡s❡❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡
❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❜❛s✉r❡r♦ ❝♦♥t❡♥❣❛ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛❜❧❡s
❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦✳ ◆♦ ♦❜st❛♥t❡✱ ❡s ❝♦♥s❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡s❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❡st❛rá ❜❛s❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡s❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❞❡ só❧♦ ✹✷
❞❛t♦s✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ q✉❡rrá t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡rr♦r q✉❡ ❡stá ❝♦♠❡t✐❡♥❞♦ ❛❧ ❤❛❝❡r ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥✳
❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛ s✐ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ② ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❞❡ ést❛✱ ♣♦❞rá ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥ r❛♥❣♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡✲
r❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❡ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❛❧t♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳ ❆❤♦r❛ ❡st❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ r❡s♦❧✈❡r ❡st❡
♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛✳

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛s ✭♦ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✮ q✉❡

❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦✳ ❍❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ✐♥s❡s❣❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ q✉❡

❛❞❡♠ás ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✱ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳ ❊♥

26
♥✉❡str♦ ❝❛s♦✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛r ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ p̂ = 42 = 0.6190.✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛r ❡❧
q
0.6190(1−0.6190)
❡rr♦r ❡stá♥❞❛r ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ s.e.(p̂) = 42 = 0.0749 ②✱ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝❛s♦✱ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡st❡
1
❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r s❡rá ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ √
2 42
= 0.0771✳ ❊♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✻✶✳✾✵ ✪ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❡rr♦r

❡st❛♥❞❛r ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✉♥ ✼✳✼✶ ✪✳

P♦r ú❧t✐♠♦✱ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ② ❞❡ s✉ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛✜r♠❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛

q✉❡ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦

0.6190 ∓ 1.96 × 0.0749 = (0.4722, 0.7658)

❝♦♥t❡♥❞rá ❛ ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛s ❝♦♥ ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡t❡❝t❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ ♣❧♦♠♦✳ ❊st❛ ú❧t✐♠❛ ❛✜r♠❛❝✐ó♥

♣♦♥❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ q✉❡ ❞❛r ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❜❛❥♦ ✭✺ ✪✮

❝♦♥❞✉❝❡ ❛ ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ♠✉② ❛♠♣❧✐♦✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❛ú♥ ❤❛② ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦

❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛♥❞♦✳ P♦r ❡❧❧♦✱ ❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s r❡❝♦♠❡♥❞❛r❧❡ ❛ ❧❛ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r❛ q✉❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧

t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

✶✹✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✽

❈♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♣❛r❛♠étr✐❝❛s

▲❛ ❣r❛♥ tr❛❣❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝✐❡♥❝✐❛✿ ❧❛ ❞❡str✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❜❡❧❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♣♦r ✉♥ ❛♥t✐❡stét✐❝♦ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦
❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✳

❚❤♦♠❛s ❍✳ ❍✉①❧❡②✳

▲❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛r t♦❞♦✱ ✐♥❝❧✉s♦ ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞✳

◆✳ ▼♦②♥✐❤❛♥

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛♠♦s q✉é s❡ ❡♥t✐❡♥❞❡ ♣♦r ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ② ❛♣r❡♥❞❡♠♦s
❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s✱ r❡❢❡r✐❞♦s ❛ ❛❧❣ú♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦✳
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■✱ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■■✱ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡
s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✱ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

✽✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❈♦♠♦ ❛♣✉♥tá❜❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ❧❛s ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s ♦ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ó✲
t❡s✐s s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥ ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❢❡r✐r ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡♥ ❛ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ ❜❛sá♥❞♦s❡ ❡♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡
❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♠❡♥③❛r ❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲♦s ❝✐❡♥tí✜❝♦s r❡❝♦♠✐❡♥❞❛♥ q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ♣r❡✈❡r ❡❧ ❝❛❧❡♥t❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❣❧♦❜❛❧✱ ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❣❛s❡s
❞❡ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ✐♥✈❡r♥❛❞❡r♦ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ ❡①❝❡❞❡r ❧❛s ✸✺✵ ♣❛rt❡s ♣♦r ♠✐❧❧ó♥✳ ❯♥❛ ♦r❣❛♥✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦t❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♠❡❞✐♦
❛♠❜✐❡♥t❡ q✉✐❡r❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛r s✐ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ♠❡❞✐♦✱ µ✱ ❞❡ ❣❛s❡s ❞❡ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ✐♥✈❡r♥❛❞❡r♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❝✉♠♣❧❡ ❝♦♥
❧❛s ♣❛✉t❛s r❡q✉❡r✐❞❛s✱ q✉❡ ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡♥ ✉♥ ❧í♠✐t❡ ♠á①✐♠♦ ❞❡ ✸✺✵ ♣❛rt❡s ♣♦r ♠✐❧❧ó♥✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦ t♦♠❛rá ✉♥❛
♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❞✐❛r✐❛s ❞❡ ❛✐r❡ ♣❛r❛ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r s✐ s❡ s✉♣❡r❛ ❡❧ ❧í♠✐t❡✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ µ > 350 ♦ ♥♦✳ P♦r
t❛♥t♦✱ ❧❛ ♦r❣❛♥✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡s❡❛ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r ❛♣♦②♦ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s µ > 350✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✱
♦❜t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ♣r✉❡❜❛s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ q✉❡ ✐♥❞✐q✉❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❝♦♥tr❛r✐❛✱ µ = 350 ✭♦ µ ≤ 350✮✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛
❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✱ ❡s ❢❛❧s❛✳

❉✐❝❤♦ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ❧❛ ♦r❣❛♥✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ✈❛ ❛ s♦♠❡t❡r ❛ ❥✉✐❝✐♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ µ ≤ 350✳ P❛rt✐rá ❞❡ s✉
✐♥♦❝❡♥❝✐❛✱ s✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ ♥♦ s❡ s✉♣❡r❛♥ ❧♦s ❧í♠✐t❡s ❞❡

✶✹✾
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❣❛s❡s ❞❡ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ✐♥✈❡r♥❛❞❡r♦✱ ② só❧♦ ❧❛ r❡❝❤❛③❛rá ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 s✐ ❤❛② ♣r✉❡❜❛s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡s ❡♥
❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✳
▲❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ♦ ♥♦ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡❜❡rá ❜❛s❛rs❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥
q✉❡ ❞❛ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ❡❧❧❛✱ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳
P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ s❡ t♦♠❛♥ ✸✵ ❧❡❝t✉r❛s ❞❡ ❛✐r❡ ② ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡s ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠❛②♦r q✉❡ ✸✺✵✱ ❧♦ ❧ó❣✐❝♦ s❡rá
r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ µ > 350✱ ♣❡r♦ s✐ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡s só❧♦ ❧✐❣❡r❛♠❡♥t❡ ♠❛②♦r q✉❡
✸✺✵ ♦ ♠❡♥♦r q✉❡ ✸✺✵✱ ♥♦ ❤❛❜rá ♣r✉❡❜❛s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ r❡❝❤❛③❛r µ ≤ 350 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ µ > 350✳
▲❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥ ❝❧❛✈❡ ❡s ❡♥ q✉é ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ s❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳ ❊♥
♥✉❡str♦ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡♥ q✉é ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ♠❛②♦r q✉❡
✸✺✵✳ ❊❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❡st♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡♥ r❡❝❤❛③❛r µ = 350 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡
µ > 350 s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✳

❆ ❧❛ ❧✉③ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❞❡✜♥✐r ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❧♦s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦s q✉❡ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐r✳

❯♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❡s ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❜❛s❛ ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛
♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ ❝✉á❧ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s s♦❜r❡ ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s
♥✉❧❛ (H0 )✱ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❝♦♥tr❛r✐❛✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ (H1 )✳

▲❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ s❡ ❜❛s❛ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ tr❛♥s❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡

❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳

❙❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛rá ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ s❡ s✐tú❡
❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ r❡❣✐ó♥✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✳

▲❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s H0 s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❡①♣r❡s❛r ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞❛ ✱ ❞❡❧ t✐♣♦ H0 : θ = θ0 ✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ θ ❡s ✉♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛
♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ② θ0 ❡s ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❤✐♣♦tét✐❝♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡s❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦✳ P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ H1 ♣✉❡❞❡ t❡♥❡r t❡♥❡r ❞♦s ❢♦r♠❛s✿
H1 : θ > θ0 , ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ♦ ❞❡
✉♥ ❡①tr❡♠♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✱ ♦ H1 : θ < θ0 , ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛

♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❛ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡①tr❡♠♦ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛.

H1 : θ 6= θ0 , ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❜✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ♦ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❝♦❧❛s ♦ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❡①tr❡♠♦s✳

❛ ❉❡ t♦❞❛s ❢♦r♠❛s✱ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡ ❡①♣r❡s❛r H0 ❝♦♠♦ ♥❡❣❛❝✐ó♥ ❡①❛❝t❛ ❞❡ H1 ✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ sí ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ✉♥❛ ❞❡s✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞

♥♦ ❡str✐❝t❛✳ ▼❛t❡♠át✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ❤❛② ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥ ❡st❛s ❞♦s ♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✳

❯♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛s♣❡❝t♦s ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡s ② q✉❡ s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ♣r❡st❛r ❛ ♠❛②♦r ❝♦♥❢✉s✐ó♥ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡ ❛ q✉é ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s
❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❝♦♠♦ H0 ② ❝✉á❧ ❝♦♠♦ H1 ✳ ❯♥❛ r❡❣❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ❤❛❝❡r❧♦ ❝♦rr❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿

✶✳ ❙✐ ❡st❛♠♦s ✐♥t❡♥t❛♥❞♦ ♣r♦❜❛r ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ést❛ ❞❡❜❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳

✷✳ P♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ s✐ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❞❡s❛❝r❡❞✐t❛r ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ✐♥❝❧✉✐r ést❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❡❞✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ s❡ ❡①✐❣❡ q✉❡ ❧♦s t✉❜♦s ❞❡ ❛❣✉❛ t❡♥❣❛♥ ✉♥❛ r❡s✐st❡♥❝✐❛ ♠❡❞✐❛
❛ ❧❛ r✉♣t✉r❛✱ µ✱ ♣♦r ❡♥❝✐♠❛ ❞❡ ✸✵ ❦❣ ♣♦r ❝❡♥tí♠❡tr♦✳

✶✺✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❈♦♠♦ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦✈❡❡❞♦r q✉✐❡r❡ ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r ✉♥ ♥✉❡✈♦ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ t✉❜♦ ♣❛r❛
s❡r ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❡st❛ ❡❞✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡rá ❤❛❝❡r ❡s ♣♦♥❡r ❛ tr❛❜❛❥❛r ❛ s✉s ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s✱ q✉❡
❞❡❜❡♥ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ♣❛r❛ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r s✐ ❡s♦s t✉❜♦s ❝✉♠♣❧❡♥ ❝♦♥ ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s r❡q✉❡r✐❞❛s✳
❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❞❡❜❡♥ ♣r♦♣♦♥❡r ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ q✉❡ ✐♥❝❧✉②❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ H0 : µ ≤ 30 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛
❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ H1 : µ > 30✳ ❙✐ ❛❧ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s s❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛ H0 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 ✱ ❡❧
t✉❜♦ ♣♦❞rá s❡r ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦✱ ♣❡r♦ s✐ ♥♦ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛r H0 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 ✱ ♥♦ s❡ t✐❡♥❡♥ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s
❣❛r❛♥tí❛s s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ t✉❜♦ ② ♥♦ s❡rá ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦✳

❈♦♠♦ s❡❣✉♥❞❛ s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥✱ ✉♥ ♣r♦✈❡❡❞♦r ❧❧❡✈❛ s✉♠✐♥✐str❛♥❞♦ s✉ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ t✉❜♦ ❞❡s❞❡ ❤❛❝❡ ❛ñ♦s✱ s✐♥ q✉❡
s❡ ❤❛②❛♥ ❞❡t❡❝t❛❞♦✱ ❡♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❝♦♥ ❡❧❧♦s✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ✉♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ q✉❡ tr❛❜❛❥❛ ♣❛r❛
❡❧ ❣♦❜✐❡r♥♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❧❛s ❡❞✐✜❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✈✐❡♥❡ t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ s♦s♣❡❝❤❛s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡s❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡
t✉❜♦ ♥♦ ❝✉♠♣❧❡ ❝♦♥ ❧❛s ❡①✐❣❡♥❝✐❛s r❡q✉❡r✐❞❛s✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ s✐ q✉✐❡r❡ ♣r♦❜❛r s✉ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ❡❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦
❞❡❜❡rá ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ H0 : µ ≥ 30 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : µ < 30✳ ❉✐❝❤♦ ❞❡
♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ só❧♦ ♣♦❞rá ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r s✉ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s s✐ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❞❛t♦s ❡♠♣ír✐❝♦s q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❛♥ r❡❝❤❛③❛r
❡s❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ s✉ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✱ q✉❡ ❞❡♠✉❡str❡♥ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❛❧t♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ✜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ q✉❡ ❡❧
♣r♦✈❡❡❞♦r q✉❡ ❡st❛❜❛ s✐❡♥❞♦ ❛❝❡♣t❛❞♦ ❛❤♦r❛ ♥♦ ❝✉♠♣❧❡ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s r❡q✉✐s✐t♦s✳

❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥tís✐♠♦ q✉❡ ❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ t❡♥❣❛♠♦s ❝❧❛r♦ q✉é t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥❡s ♣✉❡❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦✲
♥❛r♥♦s ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✳ ❆✉♥q✉❡ ②❛ ❧❛s ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✐♥s✐st✐r ❡♥ ❡❧❧❛s✳ ❙♦♥ ❧❛s ❞♦s
s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s✿

✶✳ ❙✐ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❝❛❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✱ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s
❛✜r♠❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♣❡r♠✐t❡♥ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛
❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳
✷✳ ❙✐ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♥♦ ❝❛❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✱ ♥♦
♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡①✐❣✐❞♦ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♣❡r♠✐t❡♥ r❡❝❤❛③❛r
❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳

▲❛ ❝❧❛✈❡ r❛❞✐❝❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❡♥t❡♥❞❛♠♦s ❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❝❛r❡❝❡ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳ ❊s ❛s✉♠✐❞❛
só❧♦ ❝♦♠♦ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ♣❛rt✐❞❛✱ ♣❡r♦ s❡rá ❛❜❛♥❞♦♥❛❞❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡♠♣ír✐❝♦s ♠✉❡str❡♥ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❝❧❛r❛s
❡♥ s✉ ❝♦♥tr❛ ② ❛ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳ ▲❛ ❝❛r❣❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s r❛❞✐❝❛ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s
❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❧❛ ú♥✐❝❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛r ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

✽✳✷✳ ❊rr♦r❡s ❡♥ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s

❊❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ✉♥❛ t♦♠❛ ❞❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥✱ ❛ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H0 ♦ ❡♥ ❝♦♥tr❛
❞❡ H0 ② ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 ✳ ❊st♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡q✉✐✈♦❝❛r♥♦s ❛❧ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❢♦r♠❛s✳

❙❡ ❧❧❛♠❛ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■ ♦ ❢❛❧s♦ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦ ❛ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ② s✉ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ s❡
♥♦t❛ ♣♦r α✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✳

❙❡ ❧❧❛♠❛ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❝❡♣t❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ 1 − α.

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✺✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊st❛❞♦ r❡❛❧
H0 H1
❉❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ❡♥ H0 ❉❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❛ ❊rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■■
❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ H1 ❊rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■ ❉❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❛
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✿ ❊sq✉❡♠❛t✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡rr♦rr❡s t✐♣♦ ■ ② t✐♣♦ ■■✳

❙❡ ❧❧❛♠❛ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■■ ♦ ❢❛❧s♦ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ ❛ ❛❝❡♣t❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡s ❢❛❧s❛✱ ② s✉ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ s❡
♥♦t❛ ♣♦r β.

❙❡ ❧❧❛♠❛ ♣♦t❡♥❝✐❛ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡s ❢❛❧s❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ 1 − β.

➽❈✉á❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞♦s ❡rr♦r❡s ❡s ♠ás ❣r❛✈❡❄ Pr♦❜❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡s♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❧♦ q✉❡
s❡ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡ ❡s ❛❝♦t❛r ❡❧ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■ ② tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❛r ❡❧ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■■✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❡❧❡❣✐r ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s
❧♦ ♠ás ♣♦t❡♥t❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■ ❡s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♥✐✈❡❧✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ❢❛❜r✐❝❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ♠✐♥✐❝♦♠♣✉t❛❞♦r❛s ❝r❡❡ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✈❡♥❞❡r ❝✐❡rt♦ ♣❛q✉❡t❡ ❞❡ s♦❢t✇❛r❡ ❛ ♠ás
❞❡❧ ✷✵ ✪ ❞❡ q✉✐❡♥❡s ❝♦♠♣r❛♥ s✉s ❝♦♠♣✉t❛❞♦r❛s✳ ❙❡ s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛r♦♥ ❛❧ ❛③❛r ✶✵ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❝♦♠♣r❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛
❝♦♠♣✉t❛❞♦r❛ ② s❡ ❧❡s ♣r❡❣✉♥tó s✐ ❡st❛❜❛♥ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣❛q✉❡t❡ ❞❡ s♦❢t✇❛r❡✳ ❉❡ ❡st❛s ♣❡rs♦♥❛s✱ ✹
✐♥❞✐❝❛r♦♥ q✉❡ ♣❡♥s❛❜❛♥ ❝♦♠♣r❛r ❡❧ ♣❛q✉❡t❡✳ ➽Pr♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛ ❡st❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ♣r✉❡❜❛s ❞❡ q✉❡ ♠ás
❞❡❧ ✷✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦♠♣r❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣✉t❛❞♦r❛ ❛❞q✉✐r✐rá♥ ❡❧ ♣❛q✉❡t❡ ❞❡ s♦❢t✇❛r❡❄
❙✐ p ❡s ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣r❛❞♦r❡s q✉❡ ❛❞q✉✐r✐rá♥ ❡❧ ♣❛q✉❡t❡ ❞❡ s♦❢t✇❛r❡✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s
❞❡♠♦str❛r p > 0.2✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ H0 : p = 0.2 ② H1 : p > 0.2✳
❙❡❛ X : ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❝♦♠♣r❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦✱ X → B (10, p)✳ ❯t✐❧✐③❛r❡♠♦s ❡❧
✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ X ❝♦♠♦ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ r❡❝❤❛③❛♥❞♦ H0 s✐ X ❡s ❣r❛♥❞❡✳
❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ x ≥ 4✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ x = 4✱
r❡❝❤❛③❛rí❛♠♦s H0 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 ✱ ❧❧❡❣❛♥❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐ó♥ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❢❛❜r✐❝❛♥t❡ t✐❡♥❡ r❛③ó♥✳
P❡r♦✱ ➽❝✉á❧ ❡s ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡❄ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■✳ P❛r❛
❡❧❧♦✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✷ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s
❡❧❡❣✐❞♦✱ s✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ H0 ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r

α = P [❘❡❝❤❛③❛r H0 |H0 ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛ ] = P [X ≥ 4|p=0.2 ]

−2
= 0.08808 + 2.6424 × 10 + 5.505 × 10−3 + 7.8643 × 10−4
+ 7.3728 × 10−5 + 4.096 × 10−6 + 1.024 × 10−7
= 0.12087,

❧✉❡❣♦ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s ❞❡❧ (1 − 0.12087) × 100 % = 87.913 %✳ ▲❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐ó♥ s❡rí❛ q✉❡
❛ ❧❛ ❧✉③ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✽✼✳✾✶✸ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ p > 0.2✳
➽❨ s✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♠❛②♦r✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■ ♠❡♥♦r❄ ❉❡❜❡♠♦s
r❡❞✉❝✐r ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✳ ❙✐ ♣♦♥❡♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ x ≥ 5✱ ②❛ ♥♦ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r H0 ❡♥

✶✺✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

x P [X = x]
✵ 10 0 10


0
0.2 0.8 = 0.10737
✶ 10
1
0.2 1
0.89
= 0.26844 ❘❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡
✷ 10
2
0.2 2
0.88
= 0.30199 ❛❝❡♣t❛❝✐ó♥
✸ 10
3
0.2 3
0.87
= 0.20133
✹ 10

4 5 50.2 4
0.86
= 0.08808
✺ 10
5
0.2 0.8 = 2.6424 × 10−2
✻ 10 6 4
6
0.2 0.8 = 5.505 × 10
−3
❘❡❣✐ó♥
✼ 10 7 3
7
0.2 0.8 = 7.8643 × 10
−4
❞❡
✽ 10 8 2
8
0.2 0.8 = 7.3728 × 10
−5
r❡❝❤❛③♦
✾ 10 9 1
9
0.2 0.8 = 4.096 × 10
−6

✶✵ 10 10 0
10 0.2 0.8 = 1.024 × 10
−7

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✷✿ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ s✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❝✐❡rt❛ H0 ✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ p = 0.2✳

❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 , ②❛ q✉❡ x = 4✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ ❛❤♦r❛

α = 2.6424 × 10−2 + 5.505 × 10−3 + 7.864 3 × 10−4

+ 7.3728 × 10−5 + 4.096 × 10−6 + 1.024 × 10−7
= 3.2793 × 10−2 ,

❧✉❡❣♦ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ s❡rí❛ 1 − 3.2793 × 10−2 × 100 % = 96.721 %✱ ② ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐ó♥ s❡rí❛ q✉❡ ❛ ❧❛

❧✉③ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ p > 0.2 ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✻✳✼✷✶ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛.

❊❧ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ β ❡s ❛❧❣♦ ♠ás ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛❞♦ ② ♥♦ ❧♦ ❛❜♦r❞❛r❡♠♦s✳

✽✳✸✳ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s

❍✐stór✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠ás ❝♦♠ú♥ ❞❡ ❛❝t✉❛r ❡♥ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♣❛s❛ ♣♦r ❡❧❡❣✐r ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡
s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ✭❜❛❥♦✮✱ q✉❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛ ✉♥ ❧í♠✐t❡ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■ q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ❞✐s♣✉❡st♦s ❛ ❛s✉♠✐r✳ ❊s❡ ♥✐✈❡❧
❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛ t♦❞❛ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ②✱ ❡①❛♠✐♥❛♥❞♦ s✐ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❝❛❡ ❡♥ ❡❧❧❛✱
♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r s✐ r❡❝❤❛③❛♠♦s ♦ ♥♦ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛
r❡q✉❡r✐❞♦✳
❊①✐st❡✱ s✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❛❝t✉❛r q✉❡ ❤❛ t❡♥✐❞♦ ✉♥ ❛✉❣❡ ❡♥♦r♠❡ ❞❡s❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛s ❝♦♠♣✉t❛❞♦r❛s s❡ ❤❛♥
❝♦♥✈❡rt✐❞♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❤❡rr❛♠✐❡♥t❛ ❛❧ ❛❧❝❛♥❝❡ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r❛✳ ❇❛❥♦ ❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❛❝t✉❛r✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r❡♠♦s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧
❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ② ✈❛❧♦r❛r❡♠♦s ❝ó♠♦ ❡s ❞❡ ❡①tr❡♠♦ ❡st❡ ✈❛❧♦r ❜❛❥♦ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ❞❡
❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✳ ❙✐ ❡s ♠ás ❡①tr❡♠♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡s❡❛❞♦✱ s❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛rá ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥
❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳ ❊st❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❝✉á♥ ❡①tr❡♠♦ ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ s❡ ❧❧❛♠❛ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✳

✽✳✸✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r

❉❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡❧ t✐♣♦ H0 : θ = θ0 ✱
❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s✿ H1 : θ 6= θ0 , H1 : θ > θ0 ♦ H1 : θ < θ0 ✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s ❛❞❡♠ás

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✺✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

q✉❡ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ s❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ q✉❡ ♥♦t❛r❡♠♦s S ✱ ② q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛
♠✉❡str❛ ❡s s✳

❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ♠í♥✐♠♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛
s❡rí❛ r❡❝❤❛③❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦ ✽✳✷ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦ ❝ó♠♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ 87.913 % ❞❡
❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ 96.721 %✳ ❉✐❝❤♦ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥
♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ 12.087 %✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ 3.279 %✳ ❊st♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❡❧
♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❡st❛rá ❥✉st♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❡st♦s ❞♦s ú❧t✐♠♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s✳

❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡ s❡ ❡❧✐❣❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ♠á①✐♠♦ α = 0.05✱ s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❣❧❛ ❞❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥
❡♥ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❝♦♥ ❡s❡ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❞❛❞♦ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ s❡rí❛ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿
❙✐ p < 0.05✱ r❡❝❤❛③❛♠♦s H0 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 ❝♦♥ ♠ás ❞❡ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳
❙✐ p ≥ 0.05✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r H0 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 ❝♦♥ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡st❛ r❡❣❧❛ ❞❡ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❧❛ ♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧✱ ❡s ❞❡♠❛s✐❛❞♦ r❡❞✉❝❝✐♦♥✐st❛ s✐ ♥♦ s❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛
❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❡①❛❝t♦ ❞❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✳ ▲❛ r❛③ó♥ ❡s q✉❡ ♥♦ ❡s ❧♦ ♠✐s♠♦ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❝♦♥ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡
❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ s✐ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❡s ✵✳✵✹✾ q✉❡ s✐ ❡s ✵✳✵✵✶✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ ②❛
q✉❡ ❡s♦ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ❛ ❝❛❞❛ ❧❡❝t♦r ❞❡❝✐❞✐r ♣♦r sí ♠✐s♠♦✳

❊♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥✱ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♦tr♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✱ ②❛ q✉❡ s✐ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧
❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ α✿
❙✐ p < α✱ r❡❝❤❛③❛♠♦s H0 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 ❝♦♥ ♠ás ❞❡ ✉♥ (1 − α) × % ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳
❙✐ p ≥ α✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r H0 ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ H1 ❝♦♥ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ✉♥ (1 − α) × % ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

❈♦♠♦ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐ó♥✱ s✐❡♠♣r❡ q✉❡ ❤❛❣❛♠♦s ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛r ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦✳
❈♦♠♦ ♥♦t❛ ✜♥❛❧ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ s❡ñ❛❧❛r q✉❡✱ ❛❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦ ❞❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡rró♥❡❛♠❡♥t❡
s❡ ♣✐❡♥s❛ ❡♥ ❞❡♠❛s✐❛❞❛s ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s✱ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ♥♦ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✳ ▼✉❝❤❛ ❣❡♥t❡ ♣✐❡♥s❛
❡st♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡s ❝✐❡rt♦ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❡s ♣❡q✉❡ñ♦ ❡s ❝✉❛♥❞♦ s❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱
♣❛r❛ ❡♠♣❡③❛r✱ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛r♥♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ést❛✱ ♦ ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ♦ ❡s
❢❛❧s❛✿ ❞❡s❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣❡rs♣❡❝t✐✈❛ ❝❧ás✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❛
✈❡❝❡s ♦❝✉rr❡ ② ❛ ✈❡❝❡s ♥♦✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r ❛sí✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ♦ s❡ ❞❛ ♦ ♥♦ s❡
❞❛✳ ❊♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❞❛ ❡s ✉♥ ✐♥❞✐❝✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s✱ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❛
❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ s❡❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞✱ t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❊st❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ t✐❡♥❡ ♠ás q✉❡ ✈❡r
❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ s✉❜❥❡t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❤❛❜❧❛♠♦s ❛❧ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ ❞❡ ❝✉rs♦✳
❍❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡✱ ❡♥ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❛ ❡st❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ s✉❜❥❡t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✐s✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛
❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❇❛②❡s✐❛♥❛✱ ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r sí ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞
❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡♥t❡♥❞✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ♠❡❞✐♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✱ ♥♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❛
♦❝✉rr✐r ♦ ♥♦ ♦❝✉rr✐r ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❛③❛r✱ s✐♥♦ ♣♦rq✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧❧❛✳

✶✺✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

0.4

0.4
0.3

0.3
0.2

0.2
Región de aceptación Región de aceptación

0.1

0.1
α 1−α 1−α α
0.0

0.0
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✽✳✶✿ ❘❡❣✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❡♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧❡s ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ② ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✳

0.4
0.3
0.2

Región de aceptación
0.1

α 2 1−α α 2
0.0

−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✽✳✷✿ ❘❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❜✐❧❛t❡r❛❧✳

✽✳✸✳✷✳ ❈á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r

P❛r❛ ❝♦♠♣r❡♥❞❡r ❝ó♠♦ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐r ❡♥tr❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧❡s
♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❛ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❜✐❧❛t❡r❛❧❡s ♦ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❝♦❧❛s✳

❈♦♠♦ ②❛ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛♠♦s✱ ❧♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡❧ t✐♣♦ H0 : θ = θ 0 ✱ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : θ 6= θ0 s♦♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❜✐❧❛t❡r❛❧❡s
♦ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❝♦❧❛s✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝✐rs❡ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡❧
❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ t♦♠❛ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♠✉② ❛❧t♦s ♦ ♠✉② ❜❛❥♦s✳ P♦r ❝♦♥tr❛✱ ❧♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡❧ t✐♣♦ H0 : θ = θ 0 ✱
❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H 1 : θ > θ0 ♦ H 1 : θ < θ0 s♦♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧❡s ♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❝♦❧❛✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❞❡ ❧❛
❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝✐rs❡ só❧♦ s✐ ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ t♦♠❛ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♠✉②
❛❧t♦s ✭❝✉❛♥❞♦ H1 : θ > θ 0 , ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✮ ♦ ♠✉② ❜❛❥♦s ✭❝✉❛♥❞♦ H1 : θ < θ0 ✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦
❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✮✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✺✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❧❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ s✉ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ s❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ❢♦r♠❛✿
❙✐ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ✭H1 : θ < θ0 ✮✱

p = P [S ≤ s/H0 ] .

❙✐ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ✭H1 : θ > θ0 ✮✱

p = P [S > s/H0 ] .

❙✐ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s ❜✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ✭H1 : θ 6= θ0 ✮✱

p = 2 × mı́n {P [S ≤ s/H0 ] , P [S > s/H0 ]} .

❍❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡❧ ✉s♦ ❞❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r s❡ ❤❛ ❡①t❡♥❞✐❞♦ ❤❛st❛ ❝♦♥✈❡rt✐rs❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ❞❡ t♦♠❛
❞❡ ❧❛s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥❡s ❞❡s❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✉s♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♦r❞❡♥❛❞♦r❡s ② ❞❡ ❧♦s s♦❢t✇❛r❡ ❞❡ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❡stá♥ ❛ ❞✐s♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛
♠❛②♦rí❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✉s✉❛r✐♦s✳ ❍♦② ❡♥ ❞í❛ ❝❛s✐ ♥❛❞✐❡ ❤❛❝❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❛ ♠❛♥♦✱ ② ♣rá❝t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣r♦❣r❛♠❛s
❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❝♦♠♦ ❞❛t♦ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ t♦♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥❡s✳
❊♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ r❡st❛ ❞❡❧ t❡♠❛ ❧♦ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❤❛❝❡r ❡s ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛r ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❧❛
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♦ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ② ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s✱ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ② ❧❛s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥
❞♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s✳ ◆♦ ♥♦s ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❡♥tr❛r ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❡t❛❧❧❡s ❞❡ ❝ó♠♦ s❡ ❞❡❞✉❝❡♥ s✐♥♦ só❧♦ ❡♥ ❝ó♠♦ s❡
✉t✐❧✐③❛♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛✳
❉❡ t♦❞❛s ❢♦r♠❛s✱ ❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❤❛❝❡r ✉♥❛ ❛❝❧❛r❛❝✐ó♥✿ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♣r♦❝❡❞❡♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✱
❡s ♠✉② s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ ❣r❛❝✐❛s ❛ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s q✉❡ ✈✐♠♦s ❡♥
❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ s✐ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♥♦ ♣r♦❝❡❞❡♥ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s✱
❡st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥ ❡s ♠✉❝❤ís✐♠♦ ♠ás ❞✐❢í❝✐❧✳ ❆❢♦rt✉♥❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡s ❣r❛♥❞❡✱ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛
❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡ ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❜❛s❛♥ ❡♥ s✉♠❛s ❜❛s❛❞❛s ❡♥ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s s✐❣✉❡♥
❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳ ❊s ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r
❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥ s❡ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉❡♥ ❛q✉❡❧❧♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❜❛s❛♥ ❡♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s ② ❧♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❜❛s❛♥ ❡♥ ♠✉❡str❛s
r❡❞✉❝✐❞❛s✱ q✉❡ só❧♦ ♣♦❞rá♥ s❡r ✉t✐❧✐③❛❞♦s s✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧✳
❊♥ ❝❛❞❛ ❝❛s♦✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❛❝♦♠♣❛ñ❛r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ q✉❡ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛r❡♠♦s ❡①t❡♥s❛♠❡♥t❡✳

✽✳✹✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥

❱❛♠♦s ❛ s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ x1 , ..., xn ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧ µ✳
◆♦t❛r❡♠♦s x̄ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ② s2n−1 ❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳

✽✳✹✳✶✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s ✭n ≥ 30✮

❊❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✸ ✐♥❝❧✉②❡ ✉♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡❞✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳ ❊♥ é❧✱ zp ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ N (0, 1)
t❛❧ q✉❡ P [Z < zp ] = p✳
❆ ♠♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛r ❡♥ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❛rq✉❡ó❧♦❣♦s ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❤ú♠❡r♦s
❞❡ ❧♦s ❛♥✐♠❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ t✐❡♥❞❡♥ ❛ t❡♥❡r ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s r❛③♦♥❡s ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞✴❛♥❝❤✉r❛

✶✺✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❆ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❆ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛

H0 : µ = µ 0 H0 : µ = µ 0 H0 : µ = µ 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : µ < µ 0 H1 : µ 6= µ0 H1 : µ > µ 0
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ x̄−µ√
z = sn−1 0
/ n
❘❡❝❤❛③♦ z < zα |z| > z1−α/2 z > z1−α
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Z < z] 2P [Z > |z|] P [Z > z]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s n ≥ 30

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✸✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s

✾✳✷✸ ✶✵✳✸✽ ✾✳✼✻ ✼✳✺✽ ✾✳✾✾ ✾✳✹✻ ✶✵✳✶✽ ✾✳✵✽ ✼✳✵✾ ✾✳✷✺
✶✷✳✺✼ ✽✳✼✶ ✾✳✶✻ ✶✵✳✽✵ ✾✳✽✻ ✼✳✻✶ ✽✳✾✽ ✶✵✳✽✶ ✾✳✵✺ ✾✳✸✾
✽✳✹✷ ✼✳✽✹ ✾✳✶✻ ✾✳✹✵ ✾✳✵✸ ✾✳✵✵ ✾✳✷✺ ✶✵✳✸✾ ✽✳✺✵ ✾✳✺✶
✾✳✺✾ ✽✳✻✸ ✼✳✹✽ ✼✳✼✺ ✽✳✾✷ ✶✷✳✽✺ ✶✶✳✵✶ ✽✳✶✾ ✼✳✹✹ ✶✶✳✻✻
✶✶✳✸✼ ✶✵✳✵✻ ✽✳✵✾ ✾✳✶✾ ✶✵✳✼✾ ✾✳✽✷ ✾✳✸✼ ✾✳✻✻ ✾✳✼✺ ✾✳✻✻
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✹✿ ❉❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐❡s

♣❛r❛ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❞✐s❝❡r♥✐r s✐ ❧♦s ❤ú♠❡r♦s ❢ós✐❧❡s q✉❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛♥ ❡♥ ✉♥ ②❛❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ ♦ ♥♦ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♥✉❡✈❛
❡s♣❡❝✐❡✳
❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ ❝♦♠ú♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ③♦♥❛ ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❡♥❝❧❛✈❛ ✉♥ ②❛❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦✱ ❧❛ ❇✐❝❤✉s ❧♦❝❛❧✐s✱ t✐❡♥❡ ✉♥❛
r❛③ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞✴❛♥❝❤✉r❛ ❞❡ ✾✳ ▲♦s ❛rq✉❡ó❧♦❣♦s ❡♥❝❛r❣❛❞♦s ❞❡❧ ②❛❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❤❛♥ ❤❛❧❧❛❞♦ ✺✵ ❤ú♠❡r♦s
❢ós✐❧❡s✱ ❝✉②♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✹✳ ➽❚✐❡♥❡♥ ❧♦s ❛rq✉❡ó❧♦❣♦s ✐♥❞✐❝✐♦s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡
❤❛♥ ❞❡s❝✉❜✐❡rt♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ②❛❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ✉♥❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ ❞✐st✐♥t❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❇✐❝❤✉s ❧♦❝❛❧✐s ❄
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♦❜s❡r✈❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♥♦ ♥♦s ❤❛♥ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❞♦ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛❞♦✳ ❊♥
❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧♦ ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ❡s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r α = 0.05✳ ❊♥ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ s❡❛ ♠✉② r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡✱ ❡❧❡❣✐rí❛♠♦s ✉♥
♥✐✈❡❧ ♠ás ❜❛❥♦✳
❆ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛r ❧❛s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳ ❊♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ ❧❛ ③♦♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡①❝❛✈❛❝✐ó♥ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡
❧❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ ❞❡❧ ②❛❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡❜❡rí❛ s❡r ❧❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ ❇✐❝❤✉s ❧♦❝❛❧✐s✱ s❛❧✈♦ q✉❡ ❞❡♠♦str❡♠♦s ❧♦ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱
❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡s H0 : µ = 9✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ ♣♦r µ ❡st❛♠♦s ♥♦t❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❛③ó♥ ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞✴❛♥❝❤✉r❛ ❞❡❧
❤ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡ ❞❡❧ ②❛❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❡ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡✱
❡s ❞❡❝✐r H1 : µ 6= 9✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❝♦❧❛s✳
P❛r❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛r❧♦✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳ ➱st❡✱ ❛ s✉ ✈❡③✱ r❡q✉✐❡r❡ ❞❡❧
❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ❊st♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s s♦♥✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✾✳✹✶✹
② ✶✳✷✸✾✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱
9.414 − 9
z= √ = 2.363.
1.239/ 50
❆❤♦r❛ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛r♥♦s s✐ ❡st❡ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ♥♦s ♣❡r♠✐t❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r
❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ♦ ♥♦✳ P♦❞❡♠♦s ❤❛❝❡r❧♦ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❢♦r♠❛s✿

✶✳ ❖❜t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ z1−0.05/2 = 1.96✱ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❡s |z| > 1.96✳ ❱❡♠♦s
q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ 2.363 > 1.96✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛
❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ❝♦♥❝❧✉②❡♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡s❡ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡✳
◆♦s q✉❡❞❛✱ s✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❧❛ ❞✉❞❛ ❞❡ s❛❜❡r q✉é ❤✉❜✐❡r❛ ♣❛s❛❞♦ ❞❡ t♦♠❛r ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ♠ás
❡①✐❣❡♥t❡❀ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ α = 0.01✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✺✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❆ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❆ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛

H0 : µ = µ 0 H0 : µ = µ 0 H0 : µ = µ 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : µ < µ 0 H1 : µ 6= µ0 H1 : µ > µ 0
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ x̄−µ√
t = sn−1 0
/ n
❘❡❝❤❛③♦ t < tα;n−1 |t| > t1−α/2;n−1 t > t1−α;n−1
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Tn−1 < t] 2P [Tn−1 > |t|] P [Tn−1 > t]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✺✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s

✷✳ ▼❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✳ ❚❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡

p = 2 × P [Z > |2.363|] = 0.018.

❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛❧ ✺ ✪✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡
❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ❝♦♥❝❧✉②❡♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡s❡ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❛③ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❧♦♥❣✐t✉❞✴❛♥❝❤✉r❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❤ú♠❡r♦s
❞❡❧ ②❛❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❡s ❞✐st✐♥t❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡❧ ❇✐❝❤✉s ❧♦❝❛❧✐s✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❧❧❡❣❛r ❛ ❤❛❝❡r ❡s❛ ❛✜r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥
✉♥ ✾✾ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ✭✶ ✪ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✮✶ ✳

✽✳✹✳✷✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ✭n < 30✮

▲❛ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❡s q✉❡✱ ❛❧ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡r ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡ ♣♦r tr❛t❛rs❡ ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛s
♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❛ñ❛❞✐r ❝♦♠♦ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧
♠✉❡str❡♦ ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ②❛ ♥♦ ❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧✱ s✐♥♦ t✲st✉❞❡♥t✳ ❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✺✳ ❊♥ ❡❧❧❛✱ tp;v
❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ t ❞❡ ❙t✉❞❡♥t ❝♦♥ v ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞ t❛❧ q✉❡ P [Tv < tp;v ] = p✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ t❡st ❡♥ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❊❧ ❞✐❛r✐♦ ❙✉r ♣✉❜❧✐❝❛❜❛ ✉♥❛ ♥♦t✐❝✐❛ ❡❧ ✺ ❞❡ ♥♦✈✐❡♠❜r❡ ❞❡ ✷✵✵✽
❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❛❜❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♥✐✈❡❧❡s ❞❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❜❡♥❝❡♥♦✱ ✉♥ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❤✐❞r♦❝❛r❜✉r♦ ❝❛♥❝❡rí❣❡♥♦ q✉❡ s❡
❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ ❝♦♠♦ ✈❛♣♦r ❛ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❛ ❛♠❜✐❡♥t❡ ② ❡s ✐♥❞✐s♦❧✉❜❧❡ ❡♥ ❛❣✉❛✱ ♥♦ s✉♣❡r❛♥ ❡❧ ♠á①✐♠♦ ♣❡r♠✐t✐❞♦ ♣♦r

❧❛ ❉✐r❡❝t✐✈❛ ❊✉r♦♣❡❛ ❞❡ ❈❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❆✐r❡✱ ❝✐♥❝♦ ♠✐❝r♦❣r❛♠♦s ♣♦r ♠❡tr♦ ❝ú❜✐❝♦✳ ➱st❛ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐ó♥

❞❡❧ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❡❧❛❜♦r❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✉♥ ❡q✉✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊s❝✉❡❧❛ ❆♥❞❛❧✉③❛ ❞❡ ❙❛❧✉❞ Pú❜❧✐❝❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈❛♠♣♦ ❞❡ ●✐❜r❛❧t❛r✳ ▲❛
♥♦t✐❝✐❛ só❧♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛❜❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡st✉❞✐♦ s❡ ❜❛s❛❜❛ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❞❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♠❡❞✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❡♥ ✈❛r✐❛s ③♦♥❛s
❞❡❧ ❈❛♠♣♦ ❞❡ ●✐❜r❛❧t❛r✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ♥✐ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳
P❛r❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♥♦s♦tr♦s ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❛r ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✷✵ ❤♦❣❛r❡s
❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ♠✐❞✐ó ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❜❡♥❝❡♥♦✱ ❛rr♦❥❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✺✳✶ ♠✐❝r♦❣r❛♠♦s ♣♦r ♠❡tr♦
❝ú❜✐❝♦ ② ✉♥❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✶✳✼✳ ❊st♦② s❡❣✉r♦ ❞❡ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ ♣❡r✐ó❞✐❝♦ ❤❛❜rí❛ s❛❝❛❞♦
❣r❛♥❞❡s t✐t✉❧❛r❡s s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❝✐ó♥ ♣♦r ❜❡♥❝❡♥♦ ❡♥ ❧♦s ❤♦❣❛r❡s ❞❡❧ ❈❛♠♣♦ ❞❡ ●✐❜r❛❧t❛r ♣❡r♦✱ ➽♣♦❞❡♠♦s
❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ s❡ s✉♣❡r❛♥ ❧♦s ❧í♠✐t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❉✐r❡❝t✐✈❛ ❊✉r♦♣❡❛ ❞❡ ❈❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❆✐r❡❄
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♥♦ ♥♦s ✐♥❞✐❝❛♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛✳ ❊s❝♦❣❡♠♦s✱
❡♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ α = 0.05✳
❚❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❝✉✐❞❛❞♦✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡❧ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛✱ t❛❧ ② ❝♦♠♦ s❡ ♥♦s ❤❛ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛❞♦✱ s❡rá
❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ H0 : µ = 5 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : µ > 5✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦✱ ✉♥ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■ s❡ tr❛❞✉❝❡ ❡♥
❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡ s❡ ✈✐♦❧❛ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ♥♦ ❧♦ ❤❛❝❡✱ ❧♦ ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❣r❛✈❡ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛ ❛❧❛r♠❛
✐♥❥✉st✐✜❝❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■■✱ ❡❧ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❛♠♦s ❝♦♥ ❡❧ α✱ ❡s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡
✶ ❉❡❜❡ q✉❡❞❛r ❝❧❛r♦ q✉❡✱ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❞❡♠♦str❛❞♦ ❡s q✉❡ ❧❛ r❛③ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s ❞✐st✐♥t❛ ❞❡ ✾✳ ❙♦♥ ❧♦s ❛rq✉❡ó❧♦❣♦s
❧♦s q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐❞❡♥ q✉❡ ❡s♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ ✉♥❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐❡✳

✶✺✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

s❡ ❝✉♠♣❧❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ♥♦ ❧♦ ❤❛❝❡✱ ➼❧♦ ❝✉❛❧ ❡s ❣r❛✈ís✐♠♦ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✦ ❈♦♥ ❡st♦
q✉✐❡r♦ ✐♥❝✐❞✐r ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡ q✉❡ ❞❡♠♦str❡♠♦s✿ s❡ ♥♦s ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡
♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❡♠♦s s✐ s❡ s✉♣❡r❛♥ ❧♦s ❧í♠✐t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❛✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ H1 ❞❡❜❡ s❡r µ > 5✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱
❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛r♥♦s ❧❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ ❞❡ s✐ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡st❛r s❡❣✉r♦s ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❡stá ♣♦r ❞❡❜❛❥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❧í♠✐t❡s
♠á①✐♠♦s ♣❡r♠✐t✐❞♦s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s ♣r♦❜❛r H1 : µ < 5✳
❈❡♥trá♥❞♦♥♦s ❡①❝❧✉s✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛❞♦✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ H1 : µ > 5 ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛ q✉❡
s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✳ ❊❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s
5.1 − 5
t= √ = 0.263.
1.7/ 20

✶✳ ❙✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r ❝♦♥ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✱ ést❛ ❡stá ❢♦r♠❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s t > t0.95;19 = 1.729✱
❧✉❡❣♦✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ 0.263 < 1.729✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❡sté ✐♥❝✉♠♣❧✐❡♥❞♦
❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❛✳

✷✳ ❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❡s ❛ú♥ ♠ás ✐♥❢♦r♠❛t✐✈♦✳ ❙✉ ✈❛❧♦r ❡s p = P [T19 > 0.263] = 0.398✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ t❡♥❞rí❛♠♦s
q✉❡ ❧❧❡❣❛r ❤❛st❛ ❝❛s✐ ✉♥ ✹✵ ✪ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛
❛✜r♠❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ s❡ ✐♥❝✉♠♣❧❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❛✳

P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ t❛❧ ② ❝♦♠♦ ❡stá ♣❧❛♥t❡❛❞♦ ❡❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ s❡ ❡sté ✐♥❝✉♠♣❧✐❡♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❛
✭❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✺ ✪ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥✮✱ ♣♦r ♠ás q✉❡ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ✺✳✶✱ ♣❛r❡③❝❛ ✐♥❞✐❝❛r q✉❡ sí✳ ▲♦
q✉❡ ②♦ r❡❝♦♠❡♥❞❛rí❛ ❛ ❧♦s r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ❝✉♠♣❧✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❛ ❡s q✉❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛r❛♥ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛
♠✉❡str❛✱ ②❛ q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ ❡s♦s ♠✐s♠♦s ❞❛t♦s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡r❛♥ ❛ ✶✵✵✵ ❤♦❣❛r❡s ❡♥ ✈❡③ ❞❡ ❛ ✷✵✱ sí s❡
♣♦❞rí❛ ❛✜r♠❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ s❡ ✐♥❝✉♠♣❧❡ ❧❛ ♥♦r♠❛t✐✈❛✳

✽✳✺✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥✲

❞✐❡♥t❡s

❙❡❛♥ ❞♦s ♠✉❡str❛s✱ x1 , ..., xn1 ❡ y1 , ..., yn2 ✱ ❞❡ ✈✳❛✳ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❛s µ1 ② µ2 ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s σ12 ② σ22 ✳

2
2
❙❡❛♥ x̄✱ ȳ ✱ s1n−1 ② s2n−1 ♠❡❞✐❛s ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s✳

✽✳✺✳✶✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s ✭n1 , n2 ≥ 30✮

❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡❞✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✻✳

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❛♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳ ■♠❛❣✐♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ✐♥✈❡♥t❛ ✉♥ ♥✉❡✈♦
♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❝r❡❡ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ r❡❞✉❝✐rs❡ ❧♦s t✐❡♠♣♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✳ P❛r❛ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r❧♦✱
♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ✺✵ ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ② ✸✵ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❛♥t✐❣✉♦✱ ❝♦♥t❛❜✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ✭❡♥ s❡❣✉♥❞♦s✮ q✉❡ s❡
t❛r❞❛ ❡♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝✐r ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✼ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ✉♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳
➽Pr♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥ ❡st❛s ♠✉❡str❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥
❞✐s♠✐♥✉②❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦❄ Pr✉é❜❡s❡ ❝♦♥ α = 0.05✳
▲❧❛♠❡♠♦s µ1 ❛❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❜❛❥♦ ❡❧ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ② µ2 ❛❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❜❛❥♦
❡❧ ❛♥t✐❣✉♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✳ ◆♦s ♣✐❞❡♥ q✉❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡♠♦s H0 : µ1 = µ2 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : µ1 < µ2 ♦✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡s ❧♦ ♠✐s♠♦✱
H1 : µ1 − µ2 < 0✿ s❡ tr❛t❛✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❞❡ ✉♥ t❡st ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✺✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧

❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
♣r✉❡❜❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛
H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 < D 0 H1 : µ1 − µ2 6= D0 H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 > D 0
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ (x̄−ȳ)−D0
z= s
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ (s1n−1 )
2
(s2n−1 )
2

n1 + n2

❘❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡
z < zα |z| > z1−α/2 z > z1−α
r❡❝❤❛③♦
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Z < z] 2P [Z > |z|] P [Z > z]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s n1 , n2 ≥ 30✳ ▼✉❡str❡♦ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✻✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s

Pr♦❝❡s♦ ♥✉❡✈♦ Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❛♥t✐❣✉♦

n1 = 50 n2 = 30
y¯1 = 1255 y¯2 = 1330
s1 = 215 s2 = 238

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✼✿ ❉❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❊❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❡s
1255 − 1330
z=q = −1.41.
2152 2382
50 + 30

P❛r❛ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❝rít✐❝❛ ♦ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✿

✶✳ ▲❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❡s z < z0.05 = −1.65✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ z = −1.41 ♥♦ ❝❛❡ ❡♥ ❡st❛ r❡❣✐ó♥✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s
r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ α = 0.05✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡

❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❤❛②❛ ❞✐s♠✐♥✉✐❞♦ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✳ ◆♦ ♦❜st❛♥t❡✱ ❡st❛

r❡s♣✉❡st❛ ❞❡❥❛ ❛❜✐❡rt❛ ❧❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛✱ ✏s✐ ♥♦ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ➽❝✉á♥t❛❄✑✳

✷✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❡s p = P [Z < −1.41] = 0.079 > 0.05✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥

❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ α = 0.05✳

❍❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ♥♦ ❤❡♠♦s ♣♦❞✐❞♦ ♣r♦❜❛r ❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ s♦s♣❡❝❤❛❜❛✱ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ r❡❞✉❝í❛ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦

♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✱ ♣❡r♦ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛♣✉♥t❛♥ ❡♥ ❡st❛ ❞✐r❡❝❝✐ó♥✳ ❉❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦✱ ❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s

r❡❝♦♠❡♥❞❛r ❛❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ q✉❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦ sí ♣✉❡❞❛

♣r♦❜❛r ❡s❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✳

✽✳✺✳✷✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ✭n1 < 30 o n2 < 30✮ ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ✐❣✉❛❧❡s

❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✽✳ ❆ ♣r♦♣ós✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✱ ést❛ ❞❡❜❡

❜❛s❛rs❡ ❡♥ r❛③♦♥❡s ♥♦ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛s✳ ▲♦ ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ❡s q✉❡ s❡ s✉♣♦♥❣❛ q✉❡ s♦♥ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s ♣♦rq✉❡ ❡❧ ❡①♣❡rt♦ q✉❡ ❡stá

r❡❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ t✐❡♥❡ r❛③♦♥❡s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧❡s ♣❛r❛ ❤❛❝❡r❧♦✱ r❛③♦♥❡s ❛❥❡♥❛s ❛ ❧❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❝♦♠♦ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❡❧ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❞♦s ❡q✉✐♣♦s ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❥♦ ♣❛r❛ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r

s✐ s❡ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♥ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❤♦♠♦❣é♥❡❛✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦ r❡❛❧✐③❛ ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ❞❡str❡③❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s tr❛❜❛❥❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡

❛♠❜♦s ❡q✉✐♣♦s✿ ✶✸ ❞❡❧ ❡q✉✐♣♦ ✶ ② ✶✺ ❞❡❧ ❡q✉✐♣♦ ✷✱ ❝✉②❛s ♣✉♥t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✾✳ ➽❍❛②

✐♥❞✐❝✐♦s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡①✐st❛♥ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ♣✉♥t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞♦s ❡q✉✐♣♦s❄ (α = 0.05)✳

✶✻✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❚✐♣♦ ❆ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❆ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛

H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 < D 0 H1 : µ1 − µ2 6= D0 H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 > D 0
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ (x̄−ȳ)−D0 2
2
(n1 −1)(s1n−1 ) +(n2 −1)(s2n−1 )
2

t=  , sp =
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ n1 +n2 −2
r 
s2p n1 + n1
1 2

❘❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡
t < tα;n1 +n2 −2 |t| > t1−α/2;n1 +n2 −2 t > t1−α;n1 +n2 −2
❘❡❝❤❛③♦
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Tn1 +n2 −2 < t] 2P [Tn1 +n2 −2 > |t|] P [Tn1 +n2 −2 > t]
▼✉❡str❡♦ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳ ❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s✳
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s
σ12 = σ22

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✽✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s

❊q✉✐♣♦ ✶ ✺✾ ✼✸ ✼✹ ✻✶ ✾✷ ✻✵ ✽✹ ✺✹ ✼✸ ✹✼ ✶✵✷ ✼✺ ✸✸
❊q✉✐♣♦ ✷ ✼✶ ✻✸ ✹✵ ✸✹ ✸✽ ✹✽ ✻✵ ✼✺ ✹✼ ✹✶ ✹✹ ✽✻ ✺✸ ✻✽ ✸✾
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✾✿ ❉❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣✉♥t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞♦s ❡q✉✐♣♦s ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❥♦

◆♦s ♣✐❞❡♥ q✉❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡♠♦s ❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ✭H0 : µ1 = µ2 ✮✱ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ H1 : µ1 6= µ2 ✱
♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❜✐❧❛t❡r❛❧✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♦❜t❡♥❡♠♦s ❧♦s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❛♠❜♦s ❡q✉✐♣♦s✳ ▲❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s s♦♥✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱
✻✽✳✷ ② ✺✸✳✽✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❧❛s ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐♦♥❡s tí♣✐❝❛s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s s♦♥ ✶✽✳✻ ② ✶✺✳✽✳ ❈♦♥ ❡st♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s
❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r s2p ✿
12 × 18.6 + 14 × 15.8
s2p = = 294.09.
13 + 15 − 2
❈♦♥ ❡st❡ ✈❛❧♦r ②❛ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✿
68.2 − 53.8
t= q = 2.22.
1 1
294.09( 13 + 15 )

❆✉♥q✉❡ ♥♦ ❤❡♠♦s ❞✐❝❤♦ ♥❛❞❛ ❛❧ r❡s♣❡❝t♦✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s s♦♥ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s✳ ❊st♦ ♥♦ ♣❛r❡❝❡
❞❡s❝❛❜❡❧❧❛❞♦ s✐ ❛❞♠✐t✐♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ q✉❡ tr❛❜❛❥❛♥ ❛♠❜♦s ❡q✉✐♣♦s ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛♥ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ ❤❛❜❡r
❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ s✉s ♣✉♥t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s✳ ❊st❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❛❞♠✐t✐❞❛ ② ♣r♦♣✉❡st❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❡①♣❡rt♦
✭❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦✮ q✉❡ ♠❛♥❡❥❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳
P❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐ó♥✱ ❝♦♠♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ② ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✿

✶✳ ▲❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❡s |t| > t0.975;26 = 2.055✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ t = 2.22 ❝❛❡ ❡♥ ❡s❛ r❡❣✐ó♥✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r
❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳
✷✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ p = 2P [T26 > 2.22] = 0.035 ❡s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✵✳✵✺✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛s
♠❡❞✐❛s ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❧❧❡❣❛r ❛ ✉♥ ✾✻✳✺ ✪✳

✽✳✺✳✸✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ② ♠✐s♠♦ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧

❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✵

✽✳✺✳✹✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ② ❞✐st✐♥t♦ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧

❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✶✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ v s❡ r❡❞♦♥❞❡❛ ❛❧ ❡♥t❡r♦ ♠ás ❝❡r❝❛♥♦✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✻✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛

H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 < D 0 H1 : µ1 − µ2 6= D0 H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 > D 0
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ (x̄−ȳ)−D0
t= r 
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ 2 2

1
n (s1n−1 ) +(s2n−1 )
❘❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡
t < tα;2(n−1) |t| > t1−α/2;2(n−1) t > t1−α;2(n−1)
r❡❝❤❛③♦

♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Tα;2(n−1) < t] 2P [Tα;2(n−1) > |t|] P [Tα;2(n−1) > t]

▲❛s ❞♦s ♠✉❡str❛s s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡♥ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛

❙✉♣✉❡st♦s ❆♠❜❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s✐❣✉❡♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s

▲❛s ♠✉❡str❛s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ t❛♠❛ñ♦✱ n1 = n 2 = n

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✵✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ② ♠✐s♠♦

t❛♠❛ñ♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧

❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛

H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 < D 0 H1 : µ1 − µ2 6= D0 H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 > D 0
2 2 !2
(s1n−1 ) + (s2n−1 )
n1 n2
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ (x̄−ȳ)−D0
t= s ,v =  2 2  2 2
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡
(s1n−1 )
2
( s2 )
2
( s1
n−1) (s2n−1 )
+ n−1
   
n1 n2
 n1   n2 

n1 −1 + n2 −1

❘❡❣✐ó♥
t < tα;v |t| > t1−α/2;v t > t1−α;v
❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦

♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Tv < t] 2P [Tv > |t|] P [Tv > t]

▲❛s ❞♦s ♠✉❡str❛s s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡♥ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s
❆♠❜❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s✐❣✉❡♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✶✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s✱ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ② ❞✐st✐♥t♦

t❛♠❛ñ♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧

✽✳✻✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣❛r❡❛✲

❞❛s

❚❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ n ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s✳ ❊♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s

♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ X ❡ Y✳ ❊st❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♥♦ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✿ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s ❡stá♥ ❛♣❛r❡❛❞❛s✱
(x1 , y1 ) , ..., (xn , yn )✳ P❛r❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❛♠❜❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ ✉♥❛ ♥✉❡✈❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ D = X −Y✳ ◆♦t❛♠♦s

2
d¯ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ x1 − y1 , ..., xn − yn ② sd n−1 ❛ s✉ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳

✽✳✻✳✶✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❣r❛♥❞❡s ✭n ≥ 30✮

❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✷✳

✽✳✻✳✷✳ ❈♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ✭n < 30✮

❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✸✳ ❱❡❛♠♦s ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✳

❯♥❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❢❛r♠❛❝❡út✐❝❛ ❡stá ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛♥❞♦ ✉♥ ♠❡❞✐❝❛♠❡♥t♦ q✉❡ r❡❞✉❝❡ ❧❛ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ s❛♥❣r❡ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♠✲

✶✻✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❚✐♣♦ ❆ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❆ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛

H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 < D 0 H1 : µ1 − µ2 6= D0 H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 > D 0
¯
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ z = sdd−D √0
/ n
n−1
❘❡❝❤❛③♦ z < zα |z| > z1−α/2 z > z1−α
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Z < z] 2P [Z > |z|] P [Z > z]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s n ≥ 30

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✷✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❡♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣❛r❡❛❞❛s ❝♦♥ ♠✉❡str❛ ❣r❛♥❞❡

❚✐♣♦ ❆ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❆ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛

H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0 H0 : µ 1 − µ 2 = D 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 < D 0 H1 : µ1 − µ2 6= D0 H1 : µ 1 − µ 2 > D 0
¯
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ t = sdd−D 0
√
/ n
n−1
❘❡❝❤❛③♦ t < tα;n−1 |t| > t1−α/2;n−1 t > t1−α;n−1
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Tn−1 < t] 2P [Tn−1 > |t|] P [Tn−1 > t]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s D = X − Y ✱ ❡s ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✸✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s ❡♥ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣❛r❡❛❞❛s ② ♠✉❡str❛ ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛

♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ❞❡s❡❛❞♦✷ ✳ ❆♥t❡s ❞❡ s❛❝❛r❧♦ ❛❧ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ♥❡❝❡s✐t❛ ✉♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❝❛s♦s✲❝♦♥tr♦❧❡s q✉❡ ❞❡♠✉❡str❡ s✉
❡✜❝❛❝✐❛✳
❊❧ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❝❛s♦s ❝♦♥tr♦❧❡s ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❡♥ ❡♥❝♦♥tr❛r ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♣❛r❡❥❛s ❞❡ ♣❡rs♦♥❛s ❝♦♥
❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ✜s✐♦❧ó❣✐❝❛s ♣❛r❡❝✐❞❛s❀ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❡st❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s s❡rí❛ q✉❡ ❧❛s
♣❛r❡❥❛s ❝❛s♦✲❝♦♥tr♦❧ t❡♥❣❛♥ ❛❧ ✐♥✐❝✐♦ ❞❡❧ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ♦ ♠✉② ♣❛r❡❝✐❞♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ s❛♥❣r❡ ❞❡❧
❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ❞❡s❡❛❞♦✿ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❡s❛s ♣❛r❡❥❛s✱ ✉♥❛ ❛❝tú❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❝❛s♦✱ t♦♠❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦✱
② ❧❛ ♦tr❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦♥tr♦❧✱ t♦♠❛♥❞♦ ✉♥ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ✐♥♦❝✉♦ ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦ ♣❧❛❝❡❜♦✳ ◆✐♥❣✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞♦s ♣❡rs♦♥❛s✱ ♥✐ s✐q✉✐❡r❛
❡❧ ♠é❞✐❝♦ ♦ ❡❧ ❢❛r♠❛❝❡út✐❝♦ q✉❡ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❛ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ s❛❜❡ q✉✐é♥ ❡s ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ② q✉✐é♥ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr♦❧✳ ❙ó❧♦ q✉✐❡♥ r❡❝♦♣✐❧❛
② ❛♥❛❧✐③❛ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✱ s✐♥ ❝♦♥t❛❝t♦ ❛❧❣✉♥♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ♣❛❝✐❡♥t❡✱ t✐❡♥❡ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ❊st❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣í❛ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡
❝♦♠♦ ❞♦❜❧❡ ❝✐❡❣♦ ② ❡✈✐t❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❝♦♥♦❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❡stá ❛❞♠✐♥✐str❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♥❛ ♣r♦✈♦q✉❡ ✉♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦
❡♥ sí ♠✐s♠♦✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✹✳
❯♥ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❝♦st♦✲❜❡♥❡✜❝✐♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❢❛r♠❛❝❡út✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛ q✉❡ s❡rá ❜❡♥❡✜❝✐♦s♦ s❛❝❛r ❛❧ ♠❡r❝❛❞♦ ❡❧
♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ s✐ ❧❛ ❞✐s♠✐♥✉❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ♣❡r❥✉❞✐❝✐❛❧ ❡s ❞❡ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ✷ ♣✉♥t♦s✳ ❘❡❛❧✐❝❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♥✉❡✈❛
♣r✉❡❜❛ ♣❛r❛ ❛②✉❞❛r ❛ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❛ñí❛ ❛ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ❝♦rr❡❝t❛✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s s♦♥ ❧❛ ❞✐s♠✐♥✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛
❡♥ s❛♥❣r❡ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ❞❡s❡❛❞♦ ❞❡s♣✉és ❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❡❧ ♠❡❞✐❝❛♠❡♥t♦ ♦ ❡❧ ♣❧❛❝❡❜♦✳
❊♠♣❡❝❡♠♦s ♣♦r ❧❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❧❧❛♠❛r ♠✉❡str❛ ✶ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡❧ ♠❡❞✐❝❛♠❡♥t♦ ② ♠✉❡str❛ ✷ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡❧ ♣❧❛❝❡❜♦✳
❈♦♥ ❡st❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥✱ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡♥ q✉❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡♠♦s H0 : µ1 −µ2 = 2 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : µ1 > µ2 +2✱ ♦ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱
H1 : µ1 − µ2 > 2✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s

3.21 − 2
t= √ = 3.375
1.134/ 10

② ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❡s p = P [T9 > 3.375] = 0.004✳ ❱❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛ ✉♥ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r✱
♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❛ α = 0.05✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r ❝♦♥ ❡s❡ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❥♦r❛ ❡s s✉♣❡r✐♦r✱
❡♥ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❛ ✷ ♣✉♥t♦s ②✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❡❧ ♠❡❞✐❝❛♠❡♥t♦ ❡s r❡♥t❛❜❧❡✳
✷ P♦❞rí❛ s❡r ❝♦❧❡st❡r♦❧✱ á❝✐❞♦ úr✐❝♦✱ ✳✳✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✻✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

P❛r❡❥❛ ▼❡❞✐❝❛♠❡♥t♦ P❧❛❝❡❜♦ ❉✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛

✶ ✸✷✳✶✵ ✷✼✳✶✵ ✺✳✵✵
✷ ✸✻✳✶✵ ✸✶✳✺✵ ✹✳✻✵
✸ ✸✷✳✸✵ ✸✵✳✹✵ ✶✳✾✵
✹ ✷✾✳✺✵ ✷✻✳✾✵ ✷✳✻✵
✺ ✸✹✳✸✵ ✷✾✳✾✵ ✹✳✹✵
✻ ✸✶✳✾✵ ✷✽✳✼✵ ✸✳✷✵
✼ ✸✸✳✹✵ ✸✵✳✷✵ ✸✳✷✵
✽ ✸✹✳✻✵ ✸✶✳✽✵ ✷✳✽✵
✾ ✸✺✳✷✵ ✸✸✳✻✵ ✶✳✻✵
✶✵ ✸✷✳✼✵ ✷✾✳✾✵ ✷✳✽✵
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✹✿ ❉❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❛ñí❛ ❢❛r♠❛❝❡út✐❝❛
❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛
H0 : p = p0 H 0 : p = p0 H 0 : p = p0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : p < p0 H1 : p 6= p0 H1 : p > p0
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ q p̂−p0
z=
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ p0 (1−p0 )
n
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Z < z] 2P [Z > |z|] P [Z > z]
❘❡❣✐ó♥
z < zα |z| > z1−α/2 z > z1−α
❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s np0 , n (1 − p0 ) ≥ 10

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✺✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥

✽✳✼✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥

❊♥ ❡st❛ ♦❝❛s✐ó♥ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞♦♥❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛✱
q✉❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♠♦s é①✐t♦✱ ② ❝✉②❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s p✳ ❉❡s❡❛♠♦s ❤❛❝❡r ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❡st❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥✳ P❛r❛
❡❧❧♦ s❡❧❡❝❝✐♦♥❛♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ n ② ❝♦♥t❛❜✐❧✐③❛♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ é①✐t♦s ❡♥ ❧❛
♠✉❡str❛✱ p̂✳ ❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✺✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❡❥❡♠♣♦ r❡❧❛t✐✈♦ ❛ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ ❣é♥❡r♦ ② ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❞❡ trá✜❝♦✳ ❙❡
❡st✐♠❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✻✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦♥❞✉❝t♦r❡s s♦♥ ✈❛r♦♥❡s✳ P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ✉♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦ s♦❜r❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✶✷✵
❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❞❡ trá✜❝♦ ♠✉❡str❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧❧♦s ❡❧ ✼✵ ✪ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❢✉❡r♦♥ ♣r♦✈♦❝❛❞♦s ♣♦r ✉♥ ✈❛ró♥ ❝♦♥❞✉❝t♦r✳
➽P♦❞❡♠♦s✱ ❝♦♥ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ ❝♦♥✜r♠❛r q✉❡ ❧♦s ❤♦♠❜r❡s s♦♥ ♠ás ♣❡❧✐❣r♦s♦s ❛❧ ✈♦❧❛♥t❡❄
❙✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ♣♦r p ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❛r♦♥❡s ❝❛✉s❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❞❡ trá✜❝♦✱ ❧❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛ s❡ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡rá
❛✜r♠❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ s✐ ❧♦❣r❛♠♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s H1 : p > 0.6✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❡s
0.7 − 0.6
z=q = 2.236.
0.6×0.4
120

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ s❡rí❛ |z| > 1.96 ♣❛r❛ ✉♥ α = 0.05✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡ ❧❛
♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❛r♦♥❡s ❝❛✉s❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❡s s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❛r♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❞✉❝t♦r❡s ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✳
❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ❞❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❡s ✵✳✵✶✸✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❝♦♥ ♠✉❝❤♦ ❞❡t❛❧❧❡ ♦tr♦ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ s♦❜r❡ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s✳ ❉❡ t♦❞❛s ❢♦r♠❛s✱ ❧♦ q✉❡
q✉✐❡r♦ ❡♥❢❛t✐③❛r♦s ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ♥♦ ❡stá r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❡♥ sí ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ r❡✜❡r❛ ❛ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥✳
❯♥❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ❞❡ ♥✉❡❝❡s ❛✜r♠❛ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ♠á①✐♠♦✱ ❡❧ ✻ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♥✉❡❝❡s ❡stá♥ ✈❛❝í❛s✳ ❙❡ ❡❧✐❣✐❡r♦♥ ✸✵✵ ♥✉❡❝❡s

✶✻✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❛❧ ❛③❛r ② s❡ ❞❡t❡❝t❛r♦♥ ✷✶ ✈❛❝í❛s✳ ❈♦♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✺ ✪✱ ➽s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛❝❡♣t❛r ❧❛ ❛✜r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛❄

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♣❡❞✐r ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✺ ✪ ❡s ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡ ❛ ♣❡❞✐r ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❞❡❧

✾✺ ✪ ✳✳✳ ➽s♦❜r❡ q✉é❄ ◆♦s ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛♥ s✐ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛❝❡♣t❛r ❧❛ ❛✜r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡
s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✺ ✪✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❞❡❧ ✾✺ ✪✳ ❊s♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ q✉❡r❡♠♦s
♣r♦❜❛r ❝♦♥ ❛♠♣❧✐❛s ❣❛r❛♥tí❛s q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ♥♦ ♠✐❡♥t❡✱ ② ❧❛ ú♥✐❝❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❤❛❝❡r❧♦ ❡s ♣♦♥❡r s✉ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s

✭p< 0.06✮ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ t❡♥❞rí❛♠♦s H0 : p ≥ 0.06 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❛✜r♠❛ ❧❛

♠❛r❝❛✱ H1 : p < 0.06✳

❆❤♦r❛ ❜✐❡♥✱ ✜❥é♠♦♥♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ♥✉❡❝❡s ✈❛❝í❛s ❡s p̂ = 21/300 = 0.07✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♥♦s

♣✐❞❡♥ q✉❡ ✈❡❛♠♦s s✐ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✵✳✵✼ ❞❛ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ✭✾✺ ✪ ♣❛r❛ s❡r ❡①❛❝t♦s✮ ❞❡

q✉❡ p < 0.06✳✳✳ ➼◆♦ ❞❛ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛✦ ◆✐ s✐q✉✐❡r❛ ❤❛❝❡ ❢❛❧t❛ ❤❛❝❡r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❝♦♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦s✳ ❏❛♠ás ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s

r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❡♥ ❛❜s♦❧✉t♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r

❧♦ q✉❡ ❞✐❝❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛✱ p < 0.06✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳ ❉❡ t♦❞❛s ❢♦r♠❛s✱ ♣♦r s✐ ❤❛② ❛❧❣ú♥ ✐♥❝ré❞✉❧♦✱
0.07−0.06
❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ s❡rí❛ z= √ 0.06×0.94
= 0.729✳ ▲❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡s ✉♥ t❡st ❛ ❧❛
300
✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✱ s❡rí❛ z < z0.05 = −1.645✳ ❈♦♠♦ ✈❡♠♦s✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡stá ❡♥ ❧❛ ❝♦❧❛ ❞❡

❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ② ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✳ P♦r ❡s♦ ❞❡❝í❛ ❛♥t❡s q✉❡ ❡s ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛

❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✱ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ r❡q✉❡r✐❞♦✳

❍❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛ ❤❡♠♦s ❞❡♠♦str❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♥✉❡❝❡s ✈❛❝í❛s ❡s

✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛❧ ✻ ✪ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ♥♦ ❧♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛✜r♠❛r ❝♦♥ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱

♣♦rq✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s t♦♠❛❞♦s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥ ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✵✳✵✼ q✉❡ ✈❛ ❥✉st♦ ❡♥ ❝♦♥tr❛ ❞❡ s✉ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✳

❡s ♠ás✱ ♣♦❞rí❛ ❞❡♠♦str❛r q✉❡ ❤❛② ❡✈✐❞❡♥✲

P❡r♦ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣♦♥❡♠♦s ✏❣❛❧❧✐t♦s✑ ② ❞❡❝✐♠♦s✿ ✏

❝✐❛s ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛s q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❛ñí❛ ♠✐❡♥t❡✱ s✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞
❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♥✉❡❝❡s ✈❛❝í❛s s✉♣❡r✐♦r ❛❧ ✻ ✪ ✑✳ ❆❤♦r❛ s♦♠♦s ♥♦s♦tr♦s ❧♦s q✉❡ ❛✜r♠❛♠♦s ♦tr❛ ❝♦s❛✿
❛✜r♠❛♠♦s p > 0.06 ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛❞♦ ✉♥ ♥✉❡✈♦

❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ H0 : p ≤ 0.06 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : p > 0.06✳ ▲❛s ❝✉❡♥t❛s ❡stá♥ ❝❛s✐ ❤❡❝❤❛s✱ ②❛

q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦✱ z = 0.729✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ❡s

z > z0.95 = 1.645✳ ❆❤♦r❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❞❛♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ✭✷✶ ❞❡

✸✵✵ ♥✉❡❝❡s ✈❛❝í❛s✮✱ sí ❡s ❝♦❤❡r❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✱ ❞❡ ❛❤í q✉❡ ❡sté ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❝♦❧❛ q✉❡ ❧❛

r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✳✳✳ ➼♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ❝❛❡ ❡♥ ❡❧❧❛✦✳ P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s

♣❛r❛ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ❛sí q✉❡ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s

❞❡♠♦str❛r ❝♦♥ ❡s❡ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ♠✐❡♥t❡✳

❊♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ♣❛r❡③❝❛ ♣❛r❛❞ó❥✐❝♦✱ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♣❛r❛ ❛✜r♠❛r

q✉❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❛ñí❛ ❞✐❝❡ ❧❛ ✈❡r❞❛❞✱ ♣❡r♦ t❛♠♣♦❝♦ ♣❛r❛ ❞❡♠♦str❛r q✉❡ ♠✐❡♥t❡✳ ▲❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❛♠❜❛s

❤✐♣ót❡s✐s r❛❞✐❝❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❛✜r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❛ñí❛✱ ② sí ❛❧❣✉♥❛

❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❛✜r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐❛✳ ➽❈✉á♥t❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ❛✜r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐❛ p > 0.06❄
❊s❡ ✈❛❧♦r ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ P [Z > 0.729] = 0.233✱ q✉❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡♥

p > 0.06 ❡s (1 − 0.233) × 100 % = 72.9 %✳

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❛❧❣✉✐❡♥ ♣♦❞rí❛ ♣❡♥s❛r✱ ✏ ➽② ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s q✉é ❤❛❝❡♠♦s❄ ✑✳ ❉❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦

❧♦ ú♥✐❝♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝♦♠❡♥❞❛r ❡s ❛✉♠❡♥t❛r ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ r♦♠♣❡r ♠ás ❞❡ ✸✵✵

♥✉❡❝❡s ♣❛r❛ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥✳ ❆♣❛r❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ r❡❝♦❣✐❞❛ ❝♦♥ ✸✵✵ ♥✉❡❝❡s ♣❛r❡❝❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❛r

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✻✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧

❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
♣r✉❡❜❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛
H 0 : p1 − p2 = D 0 H 0 : p1 − p 2 = D 0 H 0 : p1 − p 2 = D 0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H 1 : p 1 − p2 < D 0 H1 : p1 − p2 6= D0 H 1 : p1 − p 2 > D 0
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ p̂1 −p̂2 −D0 n1 p̂1 +n2 p̂2
z= , p̂ =
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ n1 +n2
r 
1 1
p̂(1−p̂) n +n
1 2

❘❡❣✐ó♥
z < zα |z| > z1−α/2 z > z1−α
❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Z < z] 2P [Z > |z|] P [Z > z]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s ❆❧ ♠❡♥♦s ✶✵ é①✐t♦s ② ✶✵ ❢r❛❝❛s♦s
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✻✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s

q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ♠✐❡♥t❡✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ s✐ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✵✳✵✼ ♣r♦✈✐♥✐❡r❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✶✻✵✵
♥✉❡❝❡s ❡♥ ✈❡③ ❞❡ ✸✵✵✱ sí ❤✉❜✐ér❛♠♦s ♣♦❞✐❞♦ ❞❡♠♦str❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❛r❝❛ ♠✐❡♥t❡✳

✽✳✽✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s

❊♥ ❡st❛ ♦❝❛s✐ó♥ ♣❛rt✐♠♦s ❞❡ ❞♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝✉❛❧❡s ❤❛② ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s p1 ② p2 ❞❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❝♦♥
❧❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ é①✐t♦✳ Pr❡t❡♥❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❡st❛s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ t♦♠❛ ❞❡ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ n1
② n2 ✳ ◆♦t❛r❡♠♦s p̂1 ② p̂2 ❧❛s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ é①✐t♦s ❡♥ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❞r❡♠♦s ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ q✉❡ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s
s♦♥ ❣r❛♥❞❡s ♣❛r❛ ♣♦❞❡r ❛♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛ ❞❡ tr❛❜❛❥❛r ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡
❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳ ❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✻✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦✸ ❝♦♥ ❞❛t♦s r❡❛❧❡s✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ❛❧❣♦ ❛♥t✐❝✉❛❞♦s✱ r❡❢❡r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s
❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❞❡ trá✜❝♦ ② ❡❧ ❝♦♥s✉♠♦ ❞❡ ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧✱ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❉●❚ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❈♦♠✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❆✉tó♥♦♠❛ ❞❡ ◆❛✈❛rr❛
❡♥ ✶✾✾✶✳
❙❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r♦♥ ♣r✉❡❜❛s ❞❡ ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧❡♠✐❛ ❡♥ ✷✼✹ ❝♦♥❞✉❝t♦r❡s ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❞❡ trá✜❝♦ ❝♦♥ ❤❡r✐❞♦s✱
❞❡ ❧♦s ❝✉❛❧❡s✱ ✽✽ ❞✐❡r♦♥ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦✳ P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❧❛ ●✉❛r❞✐❛ ❈✐✈✐❧ ❞❡ ❚rá✜❝♦ r❡❛❧✐③ó ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ③♦♥❛ ✶✵✹✹
❝♦♥tr♦❧❡s ❞❡ ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧❡♠✐❛ ❛❧ ❛③❛r✱ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝✉❛❧❡s ✶✺ ❞✐❡r♦♥ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦✳
▲♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❉●❚ q✉✐❡r❡ ❞❡♠♦str❛r ❡s q✉❡ ❡❧ ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧ ❡s ❝❛✉s❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❞❡ trá✜❝♦✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱
❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ só❧♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s ❡♥
❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧❡♠✐❛ ❡s ♠❛②♦r ❡♥ ❡❧ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥❞✉❝t♦r❡s ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❞❡ trá✜❝♦✳
◆♦t❡♠♦s ♣♦r p1 ② p2 ❛ ❧❛s ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❣r✉♣♦ ❞❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ② ❡♥ ❡❧ ❣r✉♣♦
❞❡ ❝♦♥❞✉❝t♦r❡s ♥♦ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛❞♦s✳ ❙❡ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r H0 : p1 = p2 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : p1 > p2 ✳ ❊❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡
❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s 88 15
274 − 1044
z=q = 904.29.
88+15 88+15 1 1
274+1044 (1 − 274+1044 )( 274 + 1044 )

❊stá ❝❧❛r♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❡s ❜❡st✐❛❧✱ s✐♥ ♥❡❝❡s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦✱ q✉❡ s❡rí❛
z > z0.95 = 1.645✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥✱ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s✱ ❡❧ ✾✺ ✪
❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳ ❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ p = P [Z > 904.29] = 0 ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❡s✱ ❞❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ♠❛②♦r✳
◆♦ ♣✉❡❞♦ r❡s✐st✐r♠❡ ❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ s✐♥ r❡❝♦r❞❛r q✉❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❉●❚ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ q✉❡rrá ❞❛r ❛ ❡♥t❡♥❞❡r
❡s q✉❡ ❡❧ ❛❧❝♦❤♦❧ ❡s ❡❧ ❝❛✉s❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❞❡ trá✜❝♦✱ ♣❡r♦ q✉❡ ❡s♦ ♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ❞❡♠♦str❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧
❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳
✸ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳❞❣t✳❡s✴❡❞✉❝❛❝✐♦♥✈✐❛❧✴✐♠❛❣❡♥❡s✴❡❞✉❝❛❝✐♦♥✈✐❛❧✴r❡❝✉rs♦s✴❞❣t✴❊❞✉❱✐❛❧✴✺✵✴✹✵✴✐♥❞❡①✳❤t♠

✶✻✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛
H0 : σ 2 = σ02 H0 : σ 2 = σ02 H0 : σ 2 = σ02
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : σ 2 < σ02 H1 : σ 2 6= σ02 H1 : σ 2 > σ02
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ (n−1)s2n−1
χ2 =
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ σ02

χ2 < χ2α/2;n−1 ♦
❘❡❝❤❛③♦ χ2 < χ2α;n−1 χ2 > χ21−α;n−1
χ2 > χ21−α/2;n−1
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [χ2n−1 < χ2 ] 2min(P [χ2n−1 < χ2 ], P [χ2n−1 > χ2 ]) P [χ2n−1 > χ2 ]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s ❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✼✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛

✽✳✾✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥

❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ X ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ σ 2 ② q✉❡ t♦♠❛♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡
t❛♠❛ñ♦ n✱ ❝✉②❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ♣♦r s2n−1 ✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❤❛❝❡r ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ σ 2 ✳ ❊❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛
❡s q✉❡ ❛❤♦r❛ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ só❧♦ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❧♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❝✉❛♥❞♦
❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ X ❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧✳ χ2p;v ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ χ2 ❞❡ v ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞ t❛❧ q✉❡ P χ2 < χ2p;v = p✳
 

▲❛s ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❙✐❞❡❧ ❛✜r♠❛ q✉❡ s✉ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❧❡♥❛❞♦ ❍❊▼❆ ♣♦s❡❡ ✉♥❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❧❧❡♥❛❞♦ ❞❡
❝♦♥t❡♥❡❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ✺✵✵♠❧ ❞❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ❤♦♠♦❣é♥❡♦ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✵✳✽ ❣r✳✹ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡ ❡❧ s✉♣❡r✈✐s♦r ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr♦❧
❞❡ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞ q✉✐❡r❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ✉♥❛ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ r❡s♣❡❝t♦✳ ❘❡❝♦♣✐❧❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡❧ ❧❧❡♥❛❞♦ ❞❡ ✺✵
❝♦♥t❡♥❡❞♦r❡s✱ ♦❜t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✵✳✻ ➽❊st❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛s s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡
q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❞❡ s✉ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ❧❧❡♥❛❞♦ ❡s r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✵✳✽❣r✳❄
P❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s✱ ❡♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❧❛s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳ ❙❡ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡ q✉❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡♠♦s H0 : σ = 0.8 ♦✱
❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ H0 : σ 2 = 0.64 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ H1 : σ 2 < 0.64✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❞❡ ✉♥ t❡st
✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✳ ❊❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s
49 × 0.6
χ2 = = 45.938.
0.64

❆❤♦r❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐♠♦s ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦ ✭❡❧❡❣✐♠♦s α = 0.05✮ ② ❞❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✿

✶✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ χ20.05;9 = 33.930✱ ② χ2 = 45.938 > χ20.05;9 = 33.930✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r ❝♦♥ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ✉♥
✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❧❡♥❛❞♦ ❡s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✵✳✽❣r✳

✷✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❡s p = P [χ249 < 45.938] = 0.4✱ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❛❧t♦✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s ♠✉② s❡r✐❛s ❞✉❞❛s ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡
q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ s❡❛ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✵✳✽❣r✳

❖❥♦✿ ❛♥t❡s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❙✐❞❡❧ s❡ ❡♥❢❛❞❡ ❝♦♥ ♥♦s♦tr♦s✱ ♥♦ ♦❧✈✐❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s s♦♥ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❛r✐♦s✿ só❧♦
s♦♥ r❡❛❧❡s ❧❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s té❝♥✐❝❛s ❞❡ σ < 0.8gr.

✽✳✶✵✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s

❚❡♥❡♠♦s ❞♦s ♠✉❡str❛s✱ x1 , ..., xn1 ② y1 , ..., yn2 ✱ ❞❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s σ12 ②
σ22 ✳ ◆♦t❛r❡♠♦s (s1n−1 )2 ② (s2n−1 )2 ❛ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s✳ ❉❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ só❧♦ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡
✹ ❤tt♣✿✴✴✇✇✇✳s✐❞❡❧✳❝♦♠✴❡s✴♣r♦❞✉❝ts✴❡q✉✐♣♠❡♥t✴t❤❡✲❛rt✲♦❢✲✜❧❧✐♥❣✴❤❡♠❛✲❣✇

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✻✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❚✐♣♦ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛
σ12 σ12 σ12
H0 : σ22
=1 H0 : σ22
=1 H0 : σ22
=1
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s σ12 σ12 σ12
H1 : σ22
<1 H1 : σ22
6= 1 H1 : σ22
>1
2
(s1n−1 )
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ f= 2
(s2n−1 )
f < fα/2;n1 −1,n2 −1 ♦
❘❡❝❤❛③♦ f < fα;n1 −1,n2 −1 f > f1−α;n1 −1,n2 −1
f > f1−α/2;n1 −1,n2 −1
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Fn1 −1,n2 −1 < f ] 2min(P [Fn1 −1,n2 −1 < f ], P [Fn1 −1,n2 −1 > f ]) P [Fn1 −1,n2 −1 > f ]
▲❛s ❞♦s ♠✉❡str❛s s❡ r❡❝♦❣❡♥ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s
❆♠❜❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s✐❣✉❡♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✽✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s

s✐ ❛♠❜❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s s♦♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s✳ ❊❧ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✽✳ ❊♥ é❧✱ fp;v1 ,v2 ❡s ❡❧
✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ F ❞❡ v1 ② v2 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✺ t❛❧ q✉❡ P [F < fp;v1 ,v2 ] = p✳
P❛r❛ ♣r❛❝t✐❝❛r s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛♥ r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦ ✷✵ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❡s❝❛❧❛
❱✐❝❦❡rs ❞❡ ❛❝❡r♦ ❝♦♥ ❛❧t♦ ❝♦♥t❡♥✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❝r♦♠♦ ② ♦tr❛s ✷✵ ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛
s♦❧❞❛❞✉r❛ ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞❛ s♦❜r❡ ❡s❡ ♠❡t❛❧✳ ▲❛s ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡stá♥❞❛r ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ ❞✉r❡③❛ ❞❡❧ ♠❡t❛❧ ② ❞❡
❞✉r❡③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s♦❧❞❛❞✉r❛ s♦❜r❡ ést❡ ❢✉❡ ❞❡ ✶✷✳✵✻µHV ② ✶✶✳✹✶µHV ✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳ P♦❞❡♠♦s s✉♣♦♥❡r q✉❡
❧❛s ❞✉r❡③❛s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ ❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s ❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ ➽P♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ ❞❡❧ ♠❡t❛❧
❜ás✐❝♦ ❡s ♠ás ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ s♦❧❞❛❞✉r❛❄
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❧❧❛♠❛r ❛ ❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❛❝❡r♦✱ X ✱ ② ❛ ❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ s♦❧❞❛❞✉r❛✱ Y ✳ ❙❡ ♥♦s ♣✐❞❡ q✉❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡♠♦s
σ2
2
H0 : σ X = σY2 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ H1 : σX
2
> σY2 ♦✱ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ H1 : σX 2 > 1✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❞❡
Y
✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ✉♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✳ ❊❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s

12.062
f= = 1.1172.
11.412

❱❛♠♦s ❛ t♦♠❛r ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ α = 0.05✳ ▲❛ r❡❣✐ó♥ ❝rít✐❝❛ ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❡❧✐♠✐t❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r f0.95;19,19 =
2.168✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ f = 1.1172 < f0.95;19,19 = 2.168✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r ❛❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ α = 0.05 q✉❡
❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ ❞❡❧ ♠❡t❛❧ ❜ás✐❝♦ s❡❛ ♠ás ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ s♦❧❞❛❞✉r❛✳
❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ♣♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡s p = P [F19,19 > 1.1172] = 0.4058✳

✽✳✶✶✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ♠ás ❞❡ ❞♦s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✐♥❞❡✲

♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ ❆◆❖❱❆

❊♥ ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s s❡❝❝✐♦♥❡s ❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s❡❣✉✐❞♦ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♣❛r❛ ✈❛❧♦r❛r s✐ ❡①✐st❡♥ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥✲
❝✐❛s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ❣r✉♣♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s ❛q✉í ❡s ❡①t❡♥❞❡r ❡st♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s
♣❛r❛ ♣♦❞❡r ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ♥♦ só❧♦ ❞♦s s✐♥♦ tr❡s ♦ ♠ás ❣r✉♣♦s✳ ❙❡ ❞❛ ♣♦r ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ q✉❡ ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥ ❢❛❝t♦r
q✉❡ s❡♣❛r❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡♥ ✈❛r✐♦s ❣r✉♣♦s ✭❞♦s ♦ ♠ás✮✳
❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s m ♠✉❡str❛s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ✉♥❛s ❞❡ ♦tr❛s✱ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s ❝♦♥ ✉♥ t❛♠❛ñ♦
ni ✻ ✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s t❛♠❜✐é♥ q✉❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s ♣r♦✈✐❡♥❡♥ ❞❡ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧
✺ ❉❡ ❝❛r❛ ❛❧ ✉s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s t❛❜❧❛s ❤❛② ✉♥❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❜❛st❛♥t❡ út✐❧✿ fp;v1 ,v2 = 1/f1−p;v2 ,v1
✻ ◆♦ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ sí ❞❡s❡❛❜❧❡✱ q✉❡ t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s t❡♥❣❛♥ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ t❛♠❛ñ♦✳

✶✻✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s µi ② ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s t♦❞❛s ✐❣✉❛❧❡s✱ σ2 ✳

▲♦ q✉❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s ❡s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r

H0 : µ1 = ... = µm

❢r❡♥t❡ ❛

H1 : ♥♦ t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s s♦♥ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s✳

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ♥♦ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s s❡❛♥ ❞✐st✐♥t❛s s✐♥♦ t❛♥ só❧♦ q✉❡ ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ❞♦s ❞❡

❡❧❧❛s s❡❛♥ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s✳

❉❡♥♦t❡♠♦s ♣♦r xi1 , ..., xini ❛ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ i−és✐♠❛✱ ② x̄i ② s2i,ni −1 ❛ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② s✉ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ❝♦♥

i = 1, ..., m✳
❊st❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛ ❆◆❖❱❆ ❝♦♠♦ ❛❝ró♥✐♠♦ ❞❡ ❆♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ ❱❛r✐❛♥❝❡ ✱ ②❛ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r✱ s❡

❜❛s❛ ❡♥ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❛ q✉é s❡ ❞❡❜❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t♦t❛❧ q✉❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ s✐ ❛❧ ❛③❛r ♦ ❛ ❧❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥tr❡

❧❛s ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛s q✉❡ ♣r♦❝❡❞❡♥ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s✳

❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❥✉♥t❛♠♦s t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s✱ ♦❜t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ú♥✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❣❧♦❜❛❧ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦

m
X
N= ni ,
i=1

② ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛♠♦s s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛✱
P m P ni
i=1 j=1 xij
x̄ = .
N
❆❤♦r❛✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛r♥♦s ♣♦r ❧❛s ❢✉❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ✿

✶✳ ❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ✈❛rí❛♥ ❣❧♦❜❛❧♠❡♥t❡ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ t♦t❛❧✳ ❯♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥

❡s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s t♦t❛❧❡s✱

ni
m X
X
2
SCT = xij − x̄ .
i=1 j=1

✷✳ P♦r ♦tr♦ ❧❛❞♦✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❤❛❜❡r ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ❣r✉♣♦ ② ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ t♦t❛❧✳ P♦❞❡♠♦s ♠❡❞✐r

❡st❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ❡♥tr❡✲❣r✉♣♦s✿

m
2
X
SCE = ni (x̄i − x̄) .
i=1

❙✐ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❢✉❡r❛ ❝✐❡rt❛✱ só❧♦ ❤❛❜rí❛ ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛

♠✉❡str❛✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ❙❈❊ s❡rí❛ ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛✳ ❙✐ ❢✉❡r❛ ❢❛❧s❛✱ ❤❛❜rí❛ ♠✉❝❤❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s

② ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ t♦t❛❧✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ ❙❈❊ s❡rí❛ ❣r❛♥❞❡✳

✸✳ P♦r ú❧t✐♠♦✱ ❞❡❜✐❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ✐♥❤❡r❡♥t❡ ❛ t♦❞❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ✈❛♥ ❛ ✈❛✲

r✐❛r r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✉❧❛r✳ ❈♦♠♦ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s
❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❣r✉♣♦s ♦ ✐♥tr❛✲❣r✉♣♦s✿

ni
m X m
X
2 X
SCD = xij − x̄i = (ni − 1) s2i,ni −1 .
i=1 j=1 i=1

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✻✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

▲❛ ❝❧❛✈❡ ❡♥ ❡st❛s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❧♦ ❝♦♥st✐t✉②❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ✐❣✉❛❧❞❛❞✱ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♣❛rt✐❝✐ó♥

❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✿

SCT = SCE + SCD.

❚❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡st❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✱ ❡❧ ❆◆❖❱❆ ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❡♥ ✈❡r s✐ ❙❈❊ ❡s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣r❛♥❞❡ r❡s♣❡❝t♦
❞❡ ❙❈❉✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦ ❜❛st❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r q✉❡✱ s✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✿
SCT
σ2 s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ χ2 ❝♦♥ N − 1 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳
SCE
σ2 s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ χ2 ❝♦♥ m − 1 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳
SCD
σ2 s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ χ2 ❝♦♥ N − m ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

❆sí✱ ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡❧ t❡st ❡s

SCE
m−1
F = SCD
,
N −m

q✉❡✱ s✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✱ s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ F ❞❡ ❙♥❡❞❡❝♦r ❝♦♥ m − 1 ② N − m ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡
❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳
P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ ❡❧ t❡st ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡s✉♠✐r❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ❢♦r♠❛✿

✶✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❛♠♦s P m P ni
i=1 j=1 xij
x̄ =
N
② ❝♦♥ ❡❧❧❛
m m
2
X X
SCE = ni (x̄i − x̄) = ni x̄2i − N x̄2 .
i=1 i=1

✷✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❛♠♦s ni
m X m
X
2 X
SCD = xij − x̄i = (ni − 1) s2i,ni −1 .
i=1 j=1 i=1

✸✳ ❈❛❧❝✉❧❛♠♦s ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ t❡st✿

SCE
m−1
F = SCD
.
N −m

✹✳ ❚♦♠❛♠♦s ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥✿

❛✮ ❙✐ F ≤ Fm−1,N −m;1−α ✱ ♥♦ r❡❝❤❛③❛♠♦s ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡

s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ α✳
❜✮ ❙✐ F > Fm−1,N −m;1−α ✱ r❡❝❤❛③❛♠♦s ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡
s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ α✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ s❡ ♣r❡♣❛r❛r♦♥ ✢✉❥♦s ❞❡ s♦❧❞❛❞✉r❛ ❝♦♥ ✹ ❝♦♠♣♦s✐❝✐♦♥❡s q✉í♠✐❝❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s✳

❙❡ ❤✐❝✐❡r♦♥ ✺ s♦❧❞❛❞✉r❛s ❝♦♥ ❝❛❞❛ ❝♦♠♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❜❛s❡ ❞❡ ❛❝❡r♦✱ ♠✐❞✐❡♥❞♦ ❧❛ ❞✉r❡③❛ ❡♥ ❧❛
❡s❝❛❧❛ ❞❡ ❇r✐♥❡❧❧✳ ❊❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✾ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ r❡s✉♠❡ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r s✐ ❡①✐st❡♥ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ❞✉r❡③❛s✱ s✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❡st❛s s✐❣✉❡♥
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧❡s t♦❞❛s ❡❧❧❛s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✳

✶✼✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❈♦♠♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ▼❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❉❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧

❆ ✷✺✸✳✽ ✾✳✼✺✼✵
❇ ✷✻✸✳✷ ✺✳✹✵✸✼
❈ ✷✼✶✳✵ ✽✳✼✶✼✽
❉ ✷✻✷✳✵ ✼✳✹✹✾✽
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✽✳✶✾✿ ❉❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❆◆❖❱❆

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♦❜s❡r✈❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧♦s t❛♠❛ñ♦s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s s♦♥ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s✿ n1 = ... = n4 = 5✳
P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s✿
5 × 253.8 + 5 × 263.2 + 5 × 271.0 + 5 × 262.0
x̄ = = 262.5
20

2 2
SCE = 5 × (253.8 − 262.5) + ... + 5 × (262.0 − 262.5) = 743.4

SCD = (5 − 1) 9.75702 + ... + (5 − 1) 7.44982 = 1023.6.

P♦r t❛♥t♦✱
743.4
4−1
F = 1023.6 = 3.8734.
20−4

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ F3,16;0.95 ❡s ✸✳✷✸✽✾✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ ❡①✐st❡♥ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s
s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ❞✉r❡③❛s ❞❡ ❧♦s ✹ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦s✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

✽✳✶✷✳ ❊❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s ♠ú❧t✐♣❧❡s✳ ▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❇♦♥❢❡rr♦♥✐

➽◗✉é ♦❝✉rr❡ s✐ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❡st✉❞✐♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ♠ás ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s❄ ❈❛❞❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❧❧❡✈❛ ❝♦♥s✐❣♦
✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ②✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ✉♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❡q✉✐✈♦❝❛r♥♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s
♥✉❧❛ q✉❡ ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛ ✭❡rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■✮✳ ❈✉❛♥t❛s ♠ás ♣r✉❡❜❛s ❤❛❣❛♠♦s✱ ♠ás ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s t❡♥❡♠♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♠❡t❡r ✉♥
❡rr♦r ❡♥ ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ r❡❝❤❛③❛♥❞♦ ✉♥❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❝✐❡rt❛ ♦✱ ❞✐❝❤♦ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ♠❡♥♦r ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ t❡♥❞r❡♠♦s✳
❊❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❇♦♥❢❡rr♦♥✐ ❡s ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠ét♦❞♦s ♠ás s✐♠♣❧❡s ♣❛r❛ tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❣✐r ❡st❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦
❛ ❧❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s ♠ú❧t✐♣❧❡s✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❣✐r ❧♦s ♣✲✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ♣r✉❡❜❛s q✉❡ s❡ ❡sté♥ r❡❛❧✐③❛♥❞♦
s✐♠✉❧tá♥❡❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ♠✉❧t✐♣❧✐❝á♥❞♦❧♦s ♣♦r ❡❧ ♥➸ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛s✱ ❛♥t❡s ❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❇✐♦❧♦❣í❛ ▼♦❧❡❝✉❧❛r s❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t❡♥❡r ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❣❡♥
❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣❛❞❡❝❡r ✉♥ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❝á♥❝❡r✳ ❯♥ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r ❝♦♥s✐❣✉❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡
✶✵ ❣❡♥❡s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ♣❛❝✐❡♥t❡s ② r❡❛❧✐③❛ ✶✵ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡
❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ❣❡♥ ❡stá r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♣❛❞❡❝❡r ❡s❡ ❝á♥❝❡r✳ ▲♦s ♣✲✈❛❧♦r❡s
♦❜t❡♥✐❞♦s s♦♥ ❧♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s✿

(0.1, 0.01, 0.21, 0.06, 0.32, 0.24, 0.45, 0.7, 0.08, 0.0003)

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✼✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱ t❡♥❞rí❛♠♦s ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✷➸ ② ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❣❡♥ ❡stá♥ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❝♦♥
❡s❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❝á♥❝❡r✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❝♦rr❡❣✐r ❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✶✵ ♣r✉❡❜❛s s✐♠✉❧tá♥❡❛s✳
❆♣❧✐❝❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❇♦♥❢❡rr♦♥✐✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♠✉❧t✐♣❧✐❝❛r ♣♦r ✶✵ ❧♦s ♣✲✈❛❧♦r❡s✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ s❡❣✉♥❞♦
❣❡♥ ②❛ ♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞♦ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ r✐❡s❣♦ ❞❡ ♣❛❞❡❝❡r ❡❧ ❝á♥❝❡r (0.01 ×
10 > 0.05)❀ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ 0.0003 × 10 < 0.05✱ ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❣❡♥ s✐❣✉❡ s✐❡♥❞♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛❞♦
s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❝á♥❝❡r✳

✽✳✶✸✳ ❘❡s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ❞❡❧ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s

❘❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s ❡❧ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠✐❡♥t♦✿ ❯♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ✐♥❞✉str✐❛❧ ❡s r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ❞❡ ❜♦❧❛s ②

t✐❡♥❡ ❞♦s ♠áq✉✐♥❛s ❞✐st✐♥t❛s ♣❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✳ ▲❡ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞♦s t❡♥❣❛♥ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦s s✐♠✐❧❛r❡s✱
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣r♦❞✉❝❡✱ ♣❡r♦ t✐❡♥❡ s♦s♣❡❝❤❛s ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡stá ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❡♥❞♦ ❛❧❣ú♥ ♣r♦✲
❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❢❛❧t❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧❧❛s✳ P❛r❛ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❡st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥✱ ❡①tr❛❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✶✷✵ ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s q✉❡
s❡ ❢❛❜r✐❝❛r♦♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❆✱ ② ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡❧ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦ ❡s ❞❡ ✺✳✵✻✽ ♠♠ ② q✉❡ s✉ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥
❡stá♥❞❛r ❡s ❞❡ ✵✳✵✶✶ ♠♠✳ ❘❡❛❧✐③❛ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❇ s♦❜r❡ ✻✺ ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ② ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛ q✉❡
❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ❞❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❡stá♥❞❛r s♦♥✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✺✳✵✼✷ ♠♠ ② ✵✳✵✵✼ ♠♠✳ ➽P✉❡❞❡ ❡❧ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r
q✉❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❥✐♥❡t❡s ♣r♦❞✉❝✐❞♦s ♣♦r ❧❛s ♠áq✉✐♥❛s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦s ♠❡❞✐♦s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s❄
❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❛❢♦rt✉♥❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ q✉❡ ✈❛ ❛ ♣❡r♠✐t✐r ♦❜✈✐❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐✲
❞❛❞✳ ❱❡♠♦s q✉❡ s❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛ ✉♥ s✉♣✉❡st♦ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ❛♥❛❧✐③❛❞♦ ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❡♥ ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦✱ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛♥❞♦
❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❛♠❜❛s ♠áq✉✐♥❛s✳ ❙✐ ❧❧❛♠❛♠♦s X ❛❧ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛ ❆ ❡ Y ❛❧ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠áq✉✐♥❛
❇✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r H0 : µX = µY ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : µX 6= µY ✳
❊❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s
5.068 − 5.072
z=q = −3.013.
0.0112 0.0072
120 + 65

❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❡s 2 × P [Z < −3.361] = 0.002✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❡❧ ❞✐á♠❡tr♦
♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❛♠❜❛s ♠áq✉✐♥❛s ❡s ❞✐st✐♥t♦✳

✶✼✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✾

❈♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥♦ ♣❛r❛♠étr✐❝❛s

❚♦❞♦s ❛♣r❡♥❞❡♠♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡①♣❡r✐❡♥❝✐❛✱ ② ❧❛ ❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡st❛ ♦❝❛s✐ó♥ ❡s q✉❡ ♥✉♥❝❛ s❡ ❞❡❜❡ ♣❡r❞❡r
❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✳

❙❤❡r❧♦❝❦ ❍♦❧♠❡s ✭❆✳ ❈✳ ❉♦②❧❡✮✱ ❡♥ ▲❛s ❆✈❡♥t✉r❛s ❞❡ ❇❧❛❝❦ P❡t❡r

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❈♦♥t✐♥✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ♣r❡s❡♥t❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ♥✉❡✈♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s q✉❡
♣❡r♠✐t✐rá♥ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r s✐ ✉♥ ❛❥✉st❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ t❡ór✐❝❛ ❡s ✈á❧✐❞♦ ② ✈❛❧♦r❛r s✐ ❡①✐st❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❛s✳
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡✱ t❡st χ ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡✱ t❡st ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡ ❞❡ ❑♦❧♠♦❣♦r♦✈✲
2

❙♠✐r♥♦✛✱ t❡st χ ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛✳

2

✾✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❚♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❞❡s❝r✐t♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r s❡ ❜❛s❛♥✱ ❞✐r❡❝t❛ ♦ ✐♥❞✐r❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ✭❛ tr❛✈és
❞❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ❧í♠✐t❡✮ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s s❡ ❛❥✉st❛♥ ❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✱ ❤❛❝✐❡♥❞♦ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡
✉♥❛ ✉ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛ s♦❜r❡ s✉s ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s q✉❡ ♥♦ ♥❡❝❡s✐t❛♥
❞❡ t❛❧ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♥♦ s❡ ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛♥ ❝♦♠♦ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s s♦❜r❡ ❛❧❣ú♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦✿ ❞❡ ❛❤í q✉❡
❢♦r♠❡♥ ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ♥♦ ♣❛r❛♠étr✐❝♦s ♦ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥♦ ♣❛r❛♠étr✐❝❛s✳

✾✳✷✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛ ❥✉st❡

●r❛❝✐❛s ❛ ❧♦ ❡st✉❞✐❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❛❤♦r❛ s♦♠♦s

❝❛♣❛❝❡s ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❛r ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❛ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❛❧❣ú♥ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ✭♠♦♠❡♥t♦s✱ ♠á①✐♠❛
✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✱ ✳✳✳✮✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❤❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛ ♥♦ ❞✐s♣♦♥❡♠♦s ❞❡ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ❤❡rr❛♠✐❡♥t❛ ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ ❥✉③❣❛r s✐ ❡s❡
❛❥✉st❡ ❡s ❜✉❡♥♦ ♦ ♠❛❧♦✱ ♦ ❝ó♠♦ ❞❡ ❜✉❡♥♦ ❡s✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❡♥ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛s ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡❥❛♠♦s
❛❜✐❡rt❛ ❡st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥✱ ②❛ q✉❡ só❧♦ ♣✉❞✐♠♦s ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❡st❛ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❣rá✜❝❛s✱
❧♦ q✉❡ só❧♦ ♥♦s ❞✐♦ ✉♥❛ ✈✐s✐ó♥ ♣❛r❝✐❛❧ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛✱ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ♠✉② s✉❜❥❡t✐✈❛✳
▲♦s ❞♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❛❤♦r❛ ✈❛♥ ❛ ♣❡r♠✐t✐r ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❝♦♠♦ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛

H0 : ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ s❡ ❛❥✉st❛ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱

✶✼✸
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❘❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❖❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ❊s♣❡r❛❞♦s

✶ ✶✵✺ ✶✵✵
✷ ✶✵✼ ✶✵✵
✸ ✽✾ ✶✵✵
✹ ✶✵✸ ✶✵✵
✺ ✶✶✶ ✶✵✵
✻ ✽✺ ✶✵✵
❚♦t❛❧ ✻✵✵ ✻✵✵

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✶✿ ❋r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s ② ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s ❡♥ ✻✵✵ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦s ❞❡❧ ❞❛❞♦✳

❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛

H1 : ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦ s❡ ❛❥✉st❛ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✱

❢❛❝✐❧✐t❛♥❞♦ ❛❞❡♠ás ✉♥ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t✐rá✱ ❛❞❡♠ás✱ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❧❛ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ❛❥✉st❡s✳

❉❡❝✐r✱ ♣♦r ú❧t✐♠♦✱ q✉❡ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ❡st♦s ❞♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❛♣❧✐❝❛rs❡ ❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
❡stá♥ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❛❞♦s ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦ ♦ ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s ✭t❡st
χ2 ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡✮ ② ♣❛r❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ s❡❣✉♥❞♦ ✭t❡st ❞❡ ❑♦❧♠♦❣♦r♦✈✲❙♠✐r♥♦✈✮✳

✾✳✷✳✶✳ ❚❡st χ2 ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ✉♥ t❛❤✉r ❞❡❧ ▼✐ss✐s✐♣✐ q✉✐❡r❡ ♣r♦❜❛r ✉♥ ❞❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ✈❡r s✐ ❡s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛
❥✉❣❛r ❤♦♥❡st❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥ é❧✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ s✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ♣♦r pi ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡❧
❞❛❞♦ r❡s✉❧t❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r i = 1, 2, ..., 6✱ ❡❧ t❛❤✉r q✉✐❡r❡ ♣r♦❜❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s

1
H0 : p1 = ... = p6 =
6
1
❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡ H1 q✉❡ ❛❧❣ú♥ pi s❡❛ ❞✐st✐♥t❛ ❞❡ 6 ✳

P❛r❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❧❛ ♣r✉❡❜❛✱ ❧❛♥③❛rá ❡❧ ❞❛❞♦ ✻✵✵ ✈❡❝❡s✱ ❛♥♦t❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❞❛ ❝❛❞❛ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳
❊st❛s ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞❡s s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s✳
P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ s✐ ❡❧ ❞❛❞♦ ❢✉❡r❛ ❥✉st♦ ✭❤✐♣ót❡s✐s H0 ✮✱ ❡♥ ✻✵✵ ❧❛♥③❛♠✐❡♥t♦s ❞❡❜❡rí❛♥ ❞❛rs❡ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡
✶✵✵ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡✳ ➱st❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s s❡ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s✳
❊❧ t❛❤✉r t♦♠❛rá ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛❧ ❞❛❞♦ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s
② ❧❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s ✭✈❡r ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✶✮✳ ➽◗✉é ❞❡❝✐❞✐rí❛s tú ❛ ❧❛ ❧✉③ ❞❡ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s❄

❆ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❡❧ t❡st χ2 ✱ q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ♣r✉❡❜❛s ❞❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦
❡♥ ❧❛ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥✱ ❝♦♥ ❡❧❧❛ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ❥✉③❣❛r ❛❥✉st❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❧♦❣r❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥
♣✉♥t✉❛❧✱ ♣❡r♦ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ✉t✐❧✐③❛r❧❛ ❡♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ✈❡r✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡①♣❡rt♦
❡stá ✐♥t❡r❡s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❞❛t♦s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧❡s ❝♦♥ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ t❡ór✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❧❡ r❡s✉❧t❛ ❞❡
✐♥t❡rés✳

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r ② ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠ás ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ s✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ N ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳
❞✐s❝r❡t❛ ♦ ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❛✱ X✱ ❛❥✉st❛❞❛ ❛ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳

✶✼✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✿ S1 , ..., Sr ✳ ❊♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦✱
❡st❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐ó♥ ♣♦❞rí❛♥ s❡r s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡ t♦❞♦s ② ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ t♦♠❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ X ✱ ♣❡r♦✱ ❝♦♠♦
✈❡r❡♠♦s✱ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ q✉❡ t❡♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❛❣r✉♣❛r ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s✳
❙❡❣✉✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ s❡❣ú♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ q✉❡ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❡✈❛❧✉❛r✱
❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛s ♣❛rt❡s✱
pi = P [X ∈ Si /H0 ] > 0.

❉❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s Oi ✱ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ q✉❡ ❝❛❡♥ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ Si .
▲❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❞❡❧ t❡st ❡s ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s Oi q✉❡ ❝❛❡♥ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ Si ❝♦♥ ❡❧
♥ú♠❡r♦ ❡s♣❡r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡rí❛♥ ❝❛❡r ❡♥ Si s✐ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ❡s ❡❧ ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r ♥✉❡str♦ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ q✉❡
s❡rí❛ N × pi ✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ q✉❡ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛ ❡st❛s ❞♦s ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞❡s ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r
r 2
X (Oi − N × pi )
D= .
i=1
N × pi

❙✐✱ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❛❞❛✱ ❡st❛ ✈✳❛✳ t♦♠❛ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r d ♠✉② ❛❧t♦✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ♥♦ ❝✉❛❞r❛♥
❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ♣r♦♣✉❡st♦ ✭❝♦♥ ❧♦ ❝✉á❧ s❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛rí❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✮❀
s✐✱ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ t♦♠❛ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r d ❜❛❥♦✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡ ♥✉❡str♦ ❛❥✉st❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❜✐❡♥ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛
♠✉❡str❛✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡s ❛❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✳
❊❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ✜♥❛❧ ❡s ❞❡❝✐❞✐r ❝✉á♥❞♦ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ D, d✱ ❡s ❧♦ s✉✜❝✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧t♦ ❝♦♠♦ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ♥♦s
r❡s✉❧t❡ ✐♥❛❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡✳ P❛r❛ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r❧♦ ❤❛② q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ N ❡s r❛③♦♥❛❜❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧t♦ ②
❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❍ 0 ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ D ❡s χ2 ❝♦♥ r − k − 1 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱
N >>
D/H0 → χ2r−k−1 ,

❞♦♥❞❡ k ❡s ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s q✉❡ ❤❛♥ s✐❞♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡✳ ❚❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡st❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✱
s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❜❛❥♦ ❡st❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r t♦❞❛✈í❛ ♠ás ❛❧t♦ q✉❡ d ✭❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ♣♦r
t❛♥t♦✮✱
p = P [D > d/H0 ] .

❙✐ ❡st❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛❧ ✺ ✪✱ s❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡

❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳ ❉✐❝❤♦ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ s❡ ❛❝❡♣t❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ só❧♦ s✐ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ D ❡♥tr❛ ❞❡♥tr♦ ❞❡❧ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡
r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♠ás ❢❛✈♦r❛❜❧❡s ❛ ❡❧❧❛✳
❊sq✉❡♠át✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿

✶✳ ❙❡ ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛ ❡❧ t❡st✿

H0 : ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s s✐❣✉❡♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r ♥✉❡str♦ ❛❥✉st❡

H1 : ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♥♦ s✐❣✉❡♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r ♥✉❡str♦ ❛❥✉st❡

✷✳ ❙✐ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡ ❞❛♥ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s x1 , ..., xm ✱ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛♥ ❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s s❡❣ú♥ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡
♣r♦♣✉❡st♦ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛❧♦r xi ✱ N × P [X = xi ]✱ i = 1, ..., m✳ ❙✐ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r
❛ ✺✱ s❡ ❛❣r✉♣❛ ❝♦♥ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠ás ❝❡r❝❛♥❛ ❤❛st❛ q✉❡ s✉♠❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ♠❛②♦r ♦ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❛ ✺✳ ❙❡
❝♦♥str✉②❡ ❛sí ❧❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ♣❛r❛ X ✱ S1 , ...Sr ✱ ❝✉②❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✼✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

xi ✵ ✶ ✷ ✸ ✹ ✺ ✻
❋r❡❝✳ ♦❜s✳ ✹✷ ✷✽ ✶✸ ✺ ✼ ✸ ✷
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✷✿ ❋r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦s ❡♥tr❡ ❧❧❡❣❛❞❛s✳

s♦♥ t♦❞❛s ♠❛②♦r❡s ♦ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s ❛ ✺✳ ❊♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❡st♦ ❡s só❧♦ ✉♥❛ r❡❝♦♠❡♥❞❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ r❡❧❛❥❛rs❡✿ s✐
❛❧❣✉♥❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛ ❡s só❧♦ ❧✐❣❡r❛♠❡♥t❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✺✱ ♥♦ ❡s ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❣r❛✈❡✳

✸✳ ❙❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛♥ ❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ Si ✱ ② ❧♦ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ Oi ✳

✹✳ ❙❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ t❡st ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛

r 2
X (Oi − N × pi )
d= .
i=1
N × pi

✺✳ ❙❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦✱

p = P [D > d/H0 ] ,

s❡❣ú♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ χ2 ❝♦♥ r − k − 1 ❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✳

✻✳ ❙❡ t♦♠❛ ❧❛ ❞❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ✭♣❛r❛ ✉♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❞❡❧ 95 %✮✿

❛ ✮ ❙✐ p < 0.05✱ s❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ 95 % ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

❜ ✮ ❙✐ p ≥ 0.05✱ s❡ ❝♦♥❝❧✉②❡ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❤❛② ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥ ❝♦♥tr❛ ❞❡ ❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s s❡ ❛❥✉st❛♥ ❛ ❧❛
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ s❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✷ ❝♦♥st✐t✉②❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❞❡❧
t✐❡♠♣♦ ❡♥ ♠s✳ q✉❡ tr❛♥s❝✉rr❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ ❧❧❡❣❛❞❛ ❞❡ ♣❛q✉❡t❡s tr❛♥s♠✐t✐❞♦s ♣♦r ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♣r♦t♦❝♦❧♦✳
❊♥ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❥✉♥t♦ ❛❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝❡s q✉❡ ❤❛♥ s✐❞♦ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳
❙❡ s♦s♣❡❝❤❛ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛❥✉st❛r ❜✐❡♥ ❡s♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❡s❡ ❛❥✉st❡
② ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r s✐ ❡s ❛❝❡♣t❛❜❧❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❡❧ t❡st ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❤✐✲❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ♣❛r❛ ❛❥✉st❛r ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛r ❡❧ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❤❛❝❡r❧♦ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❡s ✩❊❳❂ ❞❡ ❞♦♥❞❡ p = 1+EX1
. P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ♥✉❡str♦ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r s❡rá

1
p̂ = .
1 + x̄

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱
0 × 42 + 1 × 28 + 2 × 13 + 3 × 5 + 4 × 7 + 5 × 3 + 6 × 2
x̄ = = 1.24,
100

❧✉❡❣♦ ✩

✶✼✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❆sí ♣✉❡s✱ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❡♥ q✉é ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ Geo (0.4464) ❡s ✈á❧✐❞♦ ♣❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡
❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r H0 : X → Geo (0.4464) ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ H1 : X 9
Geo (0.4464) .
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❝✉á❧❡s s♦♥ ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s t❡ór✐❝❛s s❡❣ú♥ ❡s❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s
❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✿
0
P [X = 0] = 0.4464 × (1 − 0.4464) = 0.4464

1
P [X = 1] = 0.4464 × (1 − 0.4464) = 0.2471

2
P [X = 2] = 0.4464 × (1 − 0.4464) = 0.1368

3
P [X = 3] = 0.4464 × (1 − 0.4464) = 0.0757

4
P [X = 4] = 0.4464 × (1 − 0.4464) = 0.0419

5
P [X = 5] = 0.4464 × (1 − 0.4464) = 0.0232

6
P [X = 6] = 0.4464 × (1 − 0.4464) = 0.0128

P [X > 6] = 1 − (0.4464 + 0.2471 + 0.1368 + 0.0757 + 0.0419 + 0.0232 + 0.0128) = 0.0159

❆❤♦r❛ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❝♦♥str✉✐r ❧❛ ♣❛rt✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ s❛❜❡♠♦s✱ s♦♥ ✵✱✶✱✳✳✳ ❍❛②
q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♣r♦❝✉r❛r q✉❡ ❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s s❡❛♥ s✉♣❡r✐♦r❡s ♦ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s ❛ ✺✳
❈♦♠♦ ❤❛② ✶✵✵ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ s❡rá ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ❛❣r✉♣❛r ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ✹ ❡♥ ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡ ❡♥ ✉♥ s♦❧♦ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s
❛ r❡s✉♠✐r ❡st❡ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✸ ❞♦♥❞❡✱ ❛❞❡♠ás✱ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❛❧ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦ ❡♥tr❡
❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s ② ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s✱ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦s ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ t❡st✳
❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ést❡ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛✿
6.9696 0.0841 0.4624 6.6049 6.8644
d= + + + + = 1.7973.
44.64 27.71 13.68 7.57 9.38

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❝♦♠♦ P [D > 1.7973] , ❞♦♥❞❡ D s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ χ25−1−1 ✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ✉♥❛ Gamma
❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s (5 − 1 − 1)/2 ② 1/2✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱

∞ 1 1

32 −1 − 1 x
2x e 2
ˆ
2
p − valor = 3

dx = 0.61552.
1.7973 Γ 2

❆❧ s❡r s✉♣❡r✐♦r ✭♠✉② s✉♣❡r✐♦r✱ ❞❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✮ ❛ ✵✳✵✺✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ ♥♦ ❤❛② ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡
❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡♥ ❝♦♥tr❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ést♦s s✐❣❛♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ Geo (0.4464)✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✼✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

2
xi Oi N × pi (Oi − N × pi )
2
0 42 44.64 (42 − 44.64) = 6.969 6
2
1 28 27.71 (28 − 27.71) = 0 .0841
2
2 13 13.68 (13 − 13.68) = 0.462 4
2
3 5 7.57 (5 − 7.57) = 6.604 9
2
≥4 12 9.38 (12 − 9.38) = 6.864 4

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✸✿ ❋r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s✱ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s ② r❡s✐❞✉♦s✳

✾✳✷✳✷✳ ❚❡st ❞❡ ❑♦❧♠♦❣♦r♦✈✲❙♠✐r♥♦✛

❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ ❡❧ t❡st ❡s ❛♣❧✐❝❛❜❧❡ s♦❜r❡ t♦❞♦ ❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✳ ❙❡ ❜❛s❛ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛
❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ t❡ór✐❝❛ ♣r♦♣✉❡st❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❝✉②♦ ❛❥✉st❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ❡✈❛❧✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳
❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s X1 , ..., XN ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ X ✱ s✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ♣♦r F (x) ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣r♦♣✉❡st♦ ② ♣♦r SN (x) ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱
❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ q✉❡ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡st❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r

DN = Sup |F (x) − SN (x)| .

x

❆ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡st❡ ♠á①✐♠♦ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ x ❡s ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✳
▲❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❡s

H0 : ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡ ❛❥✉st❛♥ ❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r F (x) ,

❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛

H1 : ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♥♦ s❡ ❛❥✉st❛♥ ❛ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r F (x) .

❙❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛rá ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ t♦♠❡ DN s❡❛
✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ❛ ✵✳✵✺✳
❊sq✉❡♠át✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❞❡s❛rr♦❧❧♦ ❞❡❧ t❡st ♣✉❡❞❡ r❡s✉♠✐rs❡ ❡♥ ❧♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ♣❛s♦s✿

✶✳ ❖r❞❡♥❛♠♦s ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ♠❡♥♦r ❛ ♠❛②♦r✿ x(1) , ..., x(N ) .

✷✳ ❈♦♥str✉✐♠♦s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛✱ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞♦ ♣♦r
SN x(i) = Ni ✳

✸✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ s❡ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛ ❝♦♠♦

 

 


dN = máx máx F x(i) − SN x(i)  , F x(i) − SN x(i−1)  .
1≤i≤N

✹✳ ❙❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛rá ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ s✐ p = P [DN > dN ] < 0.05✱ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ (1 − p) ×
100 % ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✳

▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ DN ✱ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐❛ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ♥♦ ❡s ♠✉② ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱

♣❛r❛ ❡✈❛❧✉❛r ❡st❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❤❛② q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧

✶✼✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❛❥✉st❡✳ ❯♥❛ ♠❡t♦❞♦❧♦❣í❛ ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦ ❡s ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ▼ét♦❞♦s ❞❡ ▼♦♥t❡ ❈❛r❧♦✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ❡①❝❡❞❡ ❧♦s
❝♦♥t❡♥✐❞♦s ❞❡ ❡st♦s ❛♣✉♥t❡s✳ ❉❡❜♦ ❛❞✈❡rt✐r q✉❡ ♠✉❝❤♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣❛q✉❡t❡s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s ♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧❡s ♣✉❡❞❡♥
✐♥❞✉❝✐r ❛ ❡rr♦r ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥ ♣♦r ❞❡❢❡❝t♦ ❛q✉é❧ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❛ ✉♥
❛❥✉st❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ♥♦ s❡ ❡st✐♠❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜❛❥♦ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛✱ ❞❛♥❞♦ ❧✉❣❛r ❛ ✉♥❛
s♦❜r❡❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤♦ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✳

✶✳✹✻✹✼ ✵✳✹✾✾✺ ✵✳✼✷✶✻ ✵✳✶✶✺✶ ✵✳✷✼✶✼ ✵✳✼✽✹✷ ✸✳✾✽✾✽ ✵✳✶✾✻✼ ✵✳✽✶✵✸ ✵✳✹✽✺✹
✵✳✷✸✸✸ ✵✳✵✽✶✹ ✵✳✸✵✸✺ ✶✳✼✸✺✽ ✵✳✾✵✷✶ ✵✳✵✻✻✼ ✵✳✵✽✻✽ ✵✳✽✾✵✾ ✵✳✶✶✷✹ ✵✳✵✺✶✷
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✹✿ ❉❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✹ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡♥ ❛❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❡♥ s❡❝✳ ❡♥tr❡ ❝♦♥❡①✐♦♥❡s ❛
✉♥ s❡r✈✐❞♦r✳ ◆♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s s✐ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❡s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ s✉ ❛❥✉st❡✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r ❤❡♠♦s ❞❡ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ♣r♦♣✉❡st♦✳ ❊❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ♠á①✐♠♦ ✈❡r♦sí♠✐❧ ❞❡❧ ♣❛rá✲
♠❡tr♦ λ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❞❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s✱ λ̂ = m11 ✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡
❝❛s♦✱ λ̂ = 1/0.6902 = 1. 448 9.
P❛r❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ❡✈❛❧✉❛r ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛
exp (1.4489)✱
F (x) = 1 − e−1.4489x , x ≥ 0

❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛✳ ❊❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✺ ♠✉❡str❛ ❛♠❜❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✳ ❉❡ ❡❧❧❛
s❡ ❞❡❞✉❝❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s 0.172 72✳ ❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦ ✭❝❛❧❝✉❧❛❞♦ ♣♦r ▼ét♦❞♦s
❞❡ ▼♦♥t❡ ❈❛r❧♦ ❝♦♥ ❘✮ t♦♠❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r

P [D20 > 0.172 72] = 0.5707.

P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ♥♦ ❤❛② ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ ❝♦♥tr❛ ❞❡ ❛s✉♠✐r q✉❡ s✐❣✉❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ exp (1.4489)✳
▲❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✾✳✶ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ✈❡rt✐❡♥t❡ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❧❛ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ② ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❛❧❝❛♥③❛ ❧❛
❞✐st❛♥❝✐❛ ♠á①✐♠❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ t❡ór✐❝❛ ② ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛✳

i i−1 i i−1



x(i) F x(i) 20 20 x(i) F x(i) 20 20
0.0512 7.1499 × 10−2 0.05 0 0.4854 0.50505 0.55 0.5
0.0667 9.2119 × 10−2 0.1 0.05 0.4995 0.51506 0.6 0.55
0.0814 0.11125 0.15 0.1 0.7216 0.64849 0.65 0.6
0.0868 0.11818 0.2 0.15 0.7842 0.67897 0.7 0.65
0.1124 0.15029 0.25 0.2 0.8103 0.69089 0.75 0.7
0.1151 0.1536 0.3 0.25 0.8909 0.72496 0.8 0.75
0.1967 0.24798 0.25 0.3 0.9021 0.72938 0.85 0.8
0.2333 0.28682 0.4 0.35 1.4647 0.88023 0.9 0.85
0.2717 0.32542 0.45 0.4 1.7358 0.91914 0.95 0.9
0.3035 0.3558 0.5 0.45 3.9898 0.99691 1 0.95

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✾✳✺✿ ❚❛❜❧❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛❧ ❚❡st ❞❡ ❑♦❧♠♦❣♦r♦✈✲❙♠✐r♥♦✈✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✼✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✾✳✶✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ t❡ór✐❝❛ ② ❡♠♣ír✐❝❛✳ ❱❛❧♦r ❞♦♥❞❡ s❡ ❞❛ ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❑♦❧♠♦❣♦r♦✈✲
❙♠✐r♥♦❢✳

✾✳✸✳ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ χ2

❙✐ ♥♦s ❞❛♠♦s ❝✉❡♥t❛✱ ❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❛ ♥♦s ❤❡♠♦s ❝❡♥tr❛❞♦ ❡①❝❧✉s✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡♥
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦✳
❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡♥ ♥✉♠❡r♦s❛s ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s ❡❧ ♦❜❥❡t♦ ❞❡ ❡st✉❞✐♦ ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦✱ ♥♦ ♣♦r ✉♥❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞✱ s✐♥♦
♣♦r ✉♥❛ ❝✉❛❧✐❞❛❞ ♦ ✉♥ ❡st❛❞♦ ♥♦ ❝✉❛♥t✐✜❝❛❜❧❡✳ ❊s ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈♦ ❛
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈♦✱ ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛❧♦r❛r s✐ ❞♦s ❞❡ ❡st❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❡stá♥ ♦ ♥♦ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡
r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ➽❊stá r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛ ❧❛ ✐❞❡♦❧♦❣í❛ ♣♦❧ít✐❝❛ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❣é♥❡r♦ ❞❡❧ ✈♦t❛♥t❡❄ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s s✐
❡❧ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ ♣❡rs♦♥❛ s❡ ❞❡❝❧❛r❡ ❞❡ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛s ♦ ❞❡ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛s ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ s✐ ❡s ✈❛ró♥ ♦ ♠✉❥❡r✳ ❊①✐st❡♥ ❞♦s
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈❛s ♦ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s q✉❡ ❞✐✈✐❞❡♥ ❛ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥✳ ▲♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ✐♥t❡r❡s❛ ❡s s✐ ❡s❛ ❞✐✈✐s✐ó♥
❡stá ♦ ♥♦ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✳ ➽❙❡rá♥ ♠ás ❝♦♥s❡r✈❛❞♦r❛s ❧❛s ♠✉❥❡r❡s❄

❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ✉♥❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦ s❡ ❝❧❛s✐✜❝❛ ❞❡ ❛❝✉❡r❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❞♦s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s✱
❞❡s✐❣♥❛❞❛s ❝♦♠♦ X ❡ Y ✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X s♦♥ x1 , ..., xr ② ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ Y
s♦♥ y1 , ..., ys ✳
❉❡♥♦t❡♠♦s ♣♦r pij ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝✉②❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s s♦♥ s✐♠✉❧tá♥❡❛♠❡♥t❡
xi ❡ yj ✳ ❉❡♥♦t❡♠♦s ❛❞❡♠ás✱ ❝♦♠♦ pi. ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❝♦♥ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ xi ② p.j ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❝♦♥ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ yj ✳ ❊♥ tér♠✐♥♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s✱ t❡♥❞r❡♠♦s q✉❡ s✐ s❡ ❡❧✐❣❡ ✉♥ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦ ❛❧
❛③❛r✱
P [X = xi , Y = yj ] = pij

s
X
P [X = xi ] = pi. = pij
j=1

✶✽✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

r
X
P [Y = yj ] = p.j = pij .
i=1

▲♦ q✉❡ ♣r❡t❡♥❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❡s s✐ ❧❛s ❞♦s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ i ② ♣❛r❛
t♦❞♦ j✱
P [X = xi , Y = yj ] = P [X = xi ] × P [Y = yj ] ,

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐
pij = pi. × p.j .

❆sí ♣✉❡s✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❝♦♠♦

H0 : pij = pi. × p.j ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ i = 1, ..., r; j = 1, ..., s

❢r❡♥t❡ ❛
H1 : pij 6= pi. × p.j ♣❛r❛ ❛❧❣ú♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ i ② j✳

P❛r❛ ❧❧❡✈❛r ❛ ❝❛❜♦ ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ t♦♠❛r❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ n✳ ❉❡♥♦t❡♠♦s ♣♦r nij ❧♦s
✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❞❡ ❡s❛ ♠✉❡str❛ q✉❡ t♦♠❛♥ s✐♠✉❧tá♥❡❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r xi ② ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r yj ✭❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s✮,
Ps Pr
ni. = j=1 nij ❧♦s ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ q✉❡ t♦♠❛♥ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r xi ② n.j = i=1 nij ❧♦s q✉❡ t♦♠❛♥ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r
yj .
❉❡ ❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱
nij
p̂ij =
n
s❡rá ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❜❛s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ pij ✱

ni.
p̂i. =
n

s❡rá ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❜❛s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ pi. ②

n.j
p̂.j =
n

s❡rá ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❜❛s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ p.j .

P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ s✐ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❢✉❡r❛ ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❞❡ t❛♠❛ñ♦ n✱ q✉❡
t♦♠❛♥ s✐♠✉❧tá♥❡❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s xi ② yj s❡rí❛

eij = n × pi . × p.j .

❇❛s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s

êij = n × p̂i. × p̂.j

ni. × n.j
=
n

✭❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s✮ s❡rí❛♥ s✉s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s✳

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ s❡ ❜❛s❛ ❡♥ ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s r❡❛❧❡s ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ nij ❝♦♥
❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s êij q✉❡ s❡ ❞❛rí❛♥ s✐ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❢✉❡r❛ ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ ❧❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s X ❡ Y ❢✉❡r❛♥

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✽✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ ❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❡s

r X s 2
X (nij − êij )
d= .
i=1 j=1
êij

❙✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡s ❝✐❡rt❛✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s χ2 ❝♦♥ (r − 1) (s − 1)
❣r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧✐❜❡rt❛❞✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❛s♦❝✐❛❞♦✱

p = P [D > d/H0 ] ,

❞♦♥❞❡ D → χ2(r−1)(s−1) ♦ ❜✐❡♥✿

❘❡❝❤❛③❛r❡♠♦s H0 ❝♦♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ α s✐ d > χ2(r−1)(s−1);1−α .

◆♦ r❡❝❤❛③❛r❡♠♦s H0 ❝♦♥ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ α s✐ d < χ2(r−1)(s−1);1−α .

❍❛② q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡r ✉♥❛ ú❧t✐♠❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥✿ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦ D → χ2 ❝♦♥ (r − 1) (s − 1) ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ q✉❡ t♦❞❛s
✭♦ ❝❛s✐ t♦❞❛s✮ ❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s êij s❡❛♥ ♠❛②♦r❡s ♦ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s ❛ ✺✳ ❙✐ ❛❧❣✉♥❛ ♦ ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ❞❡ ❡❧❧❛s ♥♦ ❧♦
s♦♥✱ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ χ2 ♣♦❞rí❛ ♥♦ s❡r ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛ ② ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❞❡❧ t❡st ✐♥❝♦rr❡❝t♦✳ P❛r❛ q✉❡ ❡st♦ ♥♦ ♦❝✉rr❛ ❡s
r❡❝♦♠❡♥❞❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ s❡❛ ❣r❛♥❞❡✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡ t♦♠❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✸✵✵ ♣❡rs♦♥❛s✱ ♣r❡❣✉♥tá♥❞♦❧❡s s✐ s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥ ♠ás ❞❡ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛s✱ ♠ás
❞❡ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛s ♦ ❞❡ ❝❡♥tr♦ ② ❛♥♦t❛♥❞♦ s✉ ❣é♥❡r♦✳ ❊❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ s❡ r❡s✉♠❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ t❛❜❧❛✿

■③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❉❡r❡❝❤❛ ❈❡♥tr♦ ❚♦t❛❧

▼✉❥❡r❡s ✻✽ ✺✻ ✸✷ ✶✺✻
❍♦♠❜r❡s ✺✷ ✼✷ ✷✵ ✶✹✹
❚♦t❛❧ ✶✷✵ ✶✷✽ ✺✷ ✸✵✵

❊st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ t❛❜❧❛s s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡♥ ❝♦♠♦ t❛❜❧❛s ❞❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥❣❡♥❝✐❛✳ ❈♦♥t✐❡♥❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ♥♦t❛❞♦
nij ②✱ ❡♥ ❧♦s ♠ár❣❡♥❡s ✐♥❢❡r✐♦r ② ❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❞❡r❡❝❤♦✱ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ni. ② n.j .
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r s✐ ❡❧ ❣é♥❡r♦ ❡stá r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✐❞❡♦❧♦❣í❛✳ ❙✐ ♥♦ ❢✉❡r❛ ❛sí✱ s✐ ❧❛ ✐❞❡♦❧♦❣í❛ ❢✉❡r❛ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡
❞❡❧ ❣é♥❡r♦✱ s❡ t❡♥❞rí❛ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✸✵✵ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉♦s ❧❛s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❡s♣❡r❛❞❛s s❡rí❛♥

■③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❉❡r❡❝❤❛ ❈❡♥tr♦ ❚♦t❛❧

▼✉❥❡r❡s 156
300 300 120
300 300 156
300
128
300
156
300 300 52
300 ✶✺✻
❍♦♠❜r❡s 144
300 300 120
300 300 144
300
128
300
144
300 300 52
300 ✶✹✹
❚♦t❛❧ ✶✷✵ ✶✷✽ ✺✷ ✸✵✵

■③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❉❡r❡❝❤❛ ❈❡♥tr♦ ❚♦t❛❧

▼✉❥❡r❡s ✻✷✳✹✵ ✻✻✳✺✻ ✷✼✳✵✹ ✶✺✻
.
❍♦♠❜r❡s ✺✼✳✻✵ ✻✶✳✹✹ ✷✹✳✾✻ ✶✹✹
❚♦t❛❧ ✶✷✵ ✶✷✽ ✺✷ ✸✵✵

✶✽✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱

2 2 2
(68 − 62.40) (56 − 66.56) (32 − 27.04)
D= + + +
62.40 66.56 27.04
2 2 2
(52 − 57.60) (72 − 61.44) (20 − 24.96)
+ + + = 6.433.
57.60 61.44 24.96

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ χ2(2−1)(3−1);0.95 = 5.991✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ ❡♥ ❢❛✈♦r ❞❡ ❧❛
❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛✱ ❛✜r♠❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❣❡♥❡r♦ ❡stá r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✐❞❡♦❧♦❣í❛✳ ➽❊♥ q✉é
s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❧♦ ❡st❛rá❄

❙✐ ♥♦s ❝❡♥tr❛♠♦s só❧♦ ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❡ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛s✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❤♦♠❜r❡s ② ♠✉❥❡r❡s ❡s ❞❡
120 × 100 % = 56.667 % ② ❞❡ 120 × 100 % = 43.333 %✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳
68 52

❙✐ ♥♦s ❝❡♥tr❛♠♦s só❧♦ ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❡ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛s✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❤♦♠❜r❡s ② ♠✉❥❡r❡s ❡s ❞❡
128 × 100 % = 43.75 % ② ❞❡ 128 × 100 % = 56.25 %✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳
56 72

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ ♥♦s ❝❡♥tr❛♠♦s só❧♦ ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❡ ❝❡♥tr♦✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❤♦♠❜r❡s ② ♠✉❥❡r❡s
❡s ❞❡ 52
32
× 100 = 61.538 % ② ❞❡ 20
52 × 100 = 38.462 %✱ r❡s♣❡❝t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✳

▲♦ q✉❡ ♣❛r❡❝❡ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❡s q✉❡ ❧❛s ♠✉❥❡r❡s t✐❡♥❡♥ ♠❛②♦r ♣r❡❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ♣♦r ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡st❛
❛✜r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♥♦ s❡ ❤❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛❞♦✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ s❡ ❜❛s❛ s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❞❛t♦s ❞❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈♦s✶ ✳

✾✳✹✳ ❘❡s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s

❘❡❞♦r❞❡♠♦s ❡❧ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠✐❡♥t♦✿ ❊♥ ✉♥❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ s❡ s♦s♣❡❝❤❛ q✉❡ ❤❛② ❢r❛♥❥❛s ❤♦r❛r✐❛s ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s

❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s s♦♥ ♠ás ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡s✳ P❛r❛ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❡st❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦✱ ❝♦♥t❛❜✐❧✐③❛♥ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❧❛❜♦r❛❧❡s q✉❡ s✉❢r❡♥

❧♦s tr❛❜❛❥❛❞♦r❡s s❡❣ú♥ ❢r❛♥❥❛s ❤♦r❛r✐❛s✱ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ✉♥ ❛ñ♦✳ ▲♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ t❛❜❧❛✳

❍♦r❛s ❞❡❧ ❞í❛ ◆ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s

✽✲✶✵ ❤✳ ✹✼
✶✵✲✶✷ ❤✳ ✺✷
✶✸✲✶✺ ❤✳ ✺✼
✶✺✲✶✼ ❤✳ ✻✸

❈♦♥ ❡s❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❧♦s r❡s♣♦♥s❛❜❧❡s ❞❡ s❡❣✉r✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❞❡❜❡♥ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r s✐ ❤❛② ❢r❛♥❥❛s ❤♦r❛r✐❛s ❞♦♥❞❡

❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s s♦♥ ♠ás ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡s ♦ s✐✱ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ ést♦s ♦❝✉rr❡♥ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧ ❛③❛r✳

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛r♥♦s ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s q✉❡ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r✳ ❊❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♦❝✉rr❛♥ ❧♦s
❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s ❛❜s♦❧✉t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧ ❛③❛r ✈❡♥❞rí❛ ❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛ ❡s ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ❢r❛♥❥❛
❤♦r❛r✐❛ ✭♣✉❡st♦ q✉❡ t♦❞❛s ❡❧❧❛s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞✮✳ P♦r ❡❧❧♦✱ s✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s pi ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡
♦❝✉rr❛ ✉♥ ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ✐✲és✐♠❛ ❢r❛♥❥❛ ❤♦r❛r✐❛✱ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ♥✉❧❛ H0 : p1 = ... = p4 = 41
❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❛❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♥♦ t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s s❡❛♥ ✐❣✉❛❧❡s✳
P❛r❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ s❡❛ ✉♥❛ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ q✉❡ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✽✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s ♠✉② s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦✿

(47 − 219 × (1/4))2 (52 − 219 × (1/4))2 (57 − 219 × (1/4))2 (63 − 219 × (1/4))2
χ2 = + + + = 2.571.
219 × (1/4) 219 × (1/4) 219 × (1/4) 219 × (1/4)

P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r ❡s p = P [χ24−0−1 > 2.571] = 0.462✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♥♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥ ❡st♦s ❞❛t♦s

q✉❡ ❤❛❣❛♥ ♣❡♥s❛r ❡♥ q✉❡ ❤❛② ❢r❛♥❥❛s ❤♦r❛r✐❛s ♠ás ♣r♦♣✐❝✐❛s ❛ ❧♦s ❛❝❝✐❞❡♥t❡s✳

✶✽✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✶✵

❘❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✐♠♣❧❡

❯♥ ♣♦❧ít✐❝♦ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ ♣r❡❞❡❝✐r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♣❛s❛rá ♠❛ñ❛♥❛✱ ② ❧❛ s❡♠❛♥❛✱ ❡❧ ♠❡s ② ❡❧ ❛ñ♦
♣ró①✐♠♦s✳ ❨ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛r ♣♦r q✉é ♥♦ ❛❝❡rtó✳

❲✐♥st♦♥ ❈❤✉r❝❤✐❧❧

❘❡s✉♠❡♥✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ s❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✐♠♣❧❡✱ q✉❡ ❛s✉♠❡ q✉❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
❞❛❞❛s ❡①✐st❡ ✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♥ ❡rr♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳ ❆♣r❡♥❞❡r❡♠♦s ❛ ❡st✐♠❛r ❞✐❝❤♦
♠♦❞❡❧♦ ②✱ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❡st❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ② ❜❛❥♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ❡①tr❛❡r ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡❧
♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐r ❧❛ ❢♦rt❛❧❡③❛ ❞❡ ❞✐❝❤❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳
P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡✿ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ ❡rr♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ♥✉❜❡
❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s✱ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣✐♦ ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s✱ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❝✐ó♥
❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡✱ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥✱ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥✳

✶✵✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❯♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❛s♣❡❝t♦s ♠ás r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s q✉❡ ❛❜♦r❞❛ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡ ❛❧ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❞❡ ❧❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❞❛♥
❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s✳ ❊❧ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❞❡ ❡st❛s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❡stá ♠✉② ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❧✐❣❛❞♦ ❛❧ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❞❡
✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ (Y ) , ② ❞❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ q✉❡ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧❧❛ t✐❡♥❡ ♦tr❛ ✭✉ ♦tr❛s✮ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✭s✮✱
❧❧❛♠❛❞❛✭s✮ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✭s✮ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✭s✮ (X)✱ ② ♣❡r♠✐t❡ r❡s♣♦♥❞❡r ❛ ❞♦s ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❡s ❜ás✐❝❛s✿

➽❊s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛ ❧❛ ✐♥✢✉❡♥❝✐❛ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡❄

❙✐✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❡s❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛✱ ➽❝ó♠♦ ❡s❄ ② ➽♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛♣r♦✈❡❝❤❛r ❡s❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛ ♣r❡❞❡❝✐r
✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡❄ ▼ás ❛ú♥✱
➽♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✐♥❢❡r✐r ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s s♦❜r❡ ❡s❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ② ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ q✉❡ s✉❜②❛❝❡ ❛ ❡❧❧❛❄

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ❡q✉✐♣♦ ❞❡ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r❡s q✉❡ tr❛❜❛❥❛♥ ❡♥ s❡❣✉r✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❡❧ tr❛❜❛❥♦ ❡stá tr❛t❛♥❞♦ ❞❡ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r
❝ó♠♦ ❧❛ ♣✐❡❧ ❛❜s♦r❜❡ ✉♥ ❝✐❡rt♦ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡ q✉í♠✐❝♦ ♣❡❧✐❣r♦s♦✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱ ❝♦❧♦❝❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s ✈♦❧ú♠❡♥❡s ❞❡❧
❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦ q✉í♠✐❝♦ s♦❜r❡ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡s s❡❣♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ ♣✐❡❧ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ ♠✐❞✐❡♥❞♦
❛❧ ❝❛❜♦ ❞❡ ❡s❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ❛❜s♦r❜✐❞♦ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦✳ ❊❧ ❞✐s❡ñ♦ ❞❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ s❡ ❤❛

✶✽✺
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

r❡❛❧✐③❛❞♦ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r❛❝❝✐ó♥ ❡s♣❡r❛❜❧❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ② ❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ♥♦ ✐♥✢✉②❛ s♦❜r❡ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✳
▲♦s ❞❛t♦s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✶
▲♦ q✉❡ ❧♦s ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r❡s s❡ ❝✉❡st✐♦♥❛♥ ❡s s✐ ❧❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦ ♣♦r ✉♥ ❧❛❞♦ ② ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡
❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ q✉❡ s❡ s♦♠❡t❡ ♣♦r ♦tr♦✱ ✐♥✢✉②❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❛❜s♦r❜❡✳ ❉❡ s❡r ❛sí✱ s❡rí❛ ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡
❡st✐♠❛r ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣❡rs♦♥❛s q✉❡ s❡ s♦♠❡t❛♥ ❛ ✉♥❛ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞❛
❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❞✉r❛♥t❡ ✽ ❤♦r❛s✳
❊♥ ✉♥❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❛♣r♦①✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛r ✉♥❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐ó♥ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❡♥
❧♦s ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ♦ ♥✉❜❡s ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✶✳ ➽◗✉é ❛✜r♠❛rí❛♠♦s❄ P❛r❡❝❡ q✉❡ sí ❤❛②
✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ♠ás ♦ ♠❡♥♦s ❝❧❛r❛ ✭♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ❞❡✜♥✐t✐✈❛✮ ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ② ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡
❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ♣❡r♦ ➽❧❛ ❤❛② ❡♥tr❡ ❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ② ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥❄

❊①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❱♦❧✉♠❡♥ ❚✐❡♠♣♦ P♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❆❜s♦r❜✐❞♦

✶ ✵✳✵✺ ✷ ✺✵✳✽✽
✷ ✵✳✵✺ ✶✵ ✹✾✳✾✻
✸ ✵✳✵✺ ✷✹ ✽✸✳✻✻
✹ ✷✳✵✵ ✷ ✺✹✳✵✾
✺ ✷✳✵✵ ✶✵ ✻✽✳✷✼
✻ ✷✳✵✵ ✷✹ ✽✺✳✻✺
✼ ✺✳✵✵ ✷ ✹✽✳✸✾
✽ ✺✳✵✵ ✶✵ ✻✹✳✽✽
✾ ✺✳✵✵ ✷✹ ✽✽✳✵✶

❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✶✿ ❉❛t♦s s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦

❯♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♣❛r❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ Y ✭✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✮✱ ❞❛❞❛ ♦tr❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ X
✭✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✮✱ ❡s ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝♦ q✉❡ ♣❡r♠✐t❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛r
Y ❝♦♥ X ❜❛s❛❞❛ só❧♦ ❡♥ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❧✐♥❡❛❧❡s✱ ❞❡❧ t✐♣♦

Y = β0 + β1 X + ε.

❊♥ ❡st❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥✿

Y r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❛ ❛q✉❡❧❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❡♥ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
❝♦♥ ♦tr❛s✳

X r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❛q✉❡❧❧❛s q✉❡ ❝r❡❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❛❢❡❝t❛r ❡♥ ❛❧❣✉♥❛
♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✳ ▲❛ ❡st❛♠♦s ♥♦t❛♥❞♦ ❡♥ ♠❛②ús❝✉❧❛✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛ s❡r ✉♥❛
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ♣❡r♦ ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡ s❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ q✉❡ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛❞♦r ♣✉❡❞❡ ✜❥❛r
❛ s✉ ❛♥t♦❥♦ ❡♥ ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s✳

ε r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❛q✉❡❧❧❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ ✭❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✮ q✉❡ ♣r♦✈♦❝❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡
❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ♥♦ s❡❛ ♣❡r❢❡❝t❛✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ ❡sté s✉❥❡t❛ ❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡✳

✶✽✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

Porcentaje.Absorbido

Porcentaje.Absorbido
80

80
70

70
60

60
50

50
5 15 0 2 4
Tiempo Volumen

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✶✿ ◆✉❜❡ ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s

❍❛② q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ε s❡rá s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ❤❛st❛ q✉❡ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❡♥ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X ❡
Y ✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ s❡rá r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡

Ŷ = β0 + β1 X.

▲♦ q✉❡ ❡♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r r❡s✉❧t❛rí❛ ❞❡s❡❛❜❧❡ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❡s q✉❡ ❡st♦s ❡rr♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ♦❝✉rr❛♥ ❡♥
❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ♣♦r ❡①❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ♣♦r ❞❡❢❡❝t♦✱ s❡❛ ❝✉❛❧ s❡❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ X ✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ E [ε/X=x ] = E [ε] = 0
②✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱

E [Y /X=x ] = β0 + β1 x + E [ε/X=x ]
= β0 + β1 x.

❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ Y ♣❛r❛ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ X ❞❛❞♦ s♦♥ ✉♥❛ r❡❝t❛✳
▲❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✷ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ✉♥❛ ♥✉❜❡ ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ② ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❛❥✉st❛ ❞❡ ✉♥♦s ❞❛t♦s ❣❡♥ér✐❝♦s✳
P♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦ ❞❡ ε = y − E [Y /X=x ] ♣❛r❛ ✉♥ ❞❛t♦✱ s✉♣✉❡st♦ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ♦❜t❡♥✐❞♦ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦
❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✳ ❊♥ ❡❧❧❛ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✈❡r t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✿

β0 ❡s ❧❛ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ❛❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ✐♥t❡r❝❡♣t❛ ♦ ❝♦rt❛ ❛❧ ❡❥❡ y ✳

β1 r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❧❛ ♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❧í♥❡❛ ②✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛

✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ♣♦r ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✽✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

105
100

yi
εi
β0 + β1xi
95
y

90
85

xi

50 60 70 80 90 100

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✷✿ ❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ② ❧í♥❡❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❤✐♣♦tét✐❝❛s✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❊s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ✉t✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
❤✐♣♦tét✐❝❛ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ Y s❡❛ ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ ♣❡r♦ ➽q✉é ♦❝✉rr❡ s✐ ❡♥ ✈❡③ ❞❡ s❡r ❞❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❡s ❞❡ ♦tr♦ t✐♣♦
✭❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✱ ❧♦❣❛rít♠✐❝♦✱ ❤✐♣❡r❜ó❧✐❝♦✳✳✳✮❄
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❡s ❛❜s♦❧✉t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥✈❡♥✐❡♥t❡ ❞✐❜✉❥❛r ❡❧ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❝♦♠❡♥③❛r ❛
tr❛t❛r ❞❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ ②❛ q✉❡ s✐ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ s✉❣✐❡r❡ ✉♥ ♣❡r✜❧
❞✐st✐♥t♦ ❛❧ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ r❡❝t❛ q✉✐③á ❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛r♥♦s ♦tr♦ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳
❨✱ ♣♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ s✐ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❞✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥ ❡s ❞❡ ♦tr♦ t✐♣♦ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♦♣t❛rs❡
♣♦r r❡❛❧✐③❛r ✉♥ ❝❛♠❜✐♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳ ❊①✐st❡♥ té❝♥✐❝❛s ♠✉② s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛s ♣❛r❛
❡st❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ ❧❛s ✈❡r❡♠♦s ❛q✉í✳

✶✵✳✷✳ ❊st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣♦r ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛✲

❞r❛❞♦s
❙✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ q✉❡ ♠❡❥♦r s❡ ❛❥✉st❡ ❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ❞❡❜❡r❡♠♦s
❡st✐♠❛r ❧♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s β0 ② β1 ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳ P❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❡st♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r
✉♥ ♥✉❡✈♦ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ❝♦♠♦ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡
❜❛❥♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s q✉❡ ✈❡r❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❜r❡✈❡✱ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡♥ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s
❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ♠á①✐♠♦✲✈❡r♦sí♠✐❧❡s ❞❡ β0 ② β1 .
❊❧ r❛③♦♥❛♠✐❡♥t♦ q✉❡ ♠♦t✐✈❛ ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ❡s ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡

✶✽✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱

(x1 , y1 ) , ..., (xn , yn ) ,

❜✉s❝❛r❡♠♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦s ❞❡ β0 ② β1 , q✉❡ ♥♦t❛r❡♠♦s ♣♦r β̂0 ② β̂1 , ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❛❥✉st❛❞♦✱

ŷx = β̂0 + β̂1 x

♠✐♥✐♠✐❝❡ ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦s✳ ❘❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s q✉❡

E [Y /X=x ] = β0 + β1 x,

❧✉❡❣♦ ŷx ♣✉❡❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛rs❡ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❢♦r♠❛s✿

✶✳ ❈♦♠♦ ✉♥❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ t♦♠❛rá Y s✐ X = x.

✷✳ ❈♦♠♦ ✉♥❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ Y ❝✉❛♥❞♦ X = x✳

❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♥❞♦✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❜✉s❝❛♠♦s ❡s ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❛r ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s

n 
X 2
SSE = yi − (β̂0 + β̂1 xi ) ,
i=1

❡s ❞❡❝✐r ❜✉s❝❛♠♦s  
 
β̂0 , β̂1 = arg mı́n SSE .
β0 ,β1

❙❡ ❧❧❛♠❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ♣♦r ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ✭♦ s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✮ ❞❡ Y

❞❛❞❛ X ❛ ❧❛ ❧í♥❡❛ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ SSE ♠ás ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛ ❞❡ ❡♥tr❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❧✐♥❡❛❧❡s✳

▲❛ s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡s❡ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦ s❡ ♦❜t✐❡♥❡ ♣♦r ❡❧ ♠❡❝❛♥✐s♠♦ ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧✿ s❡ ❞❡r✐✈❛ SSE r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ β̂0
SSxy
② β̂1 , s❡ ✐❣✉❛❧❛ ❛ ❝❡r♦ ② s❡ ❞❡s♣❡❥❛♥ ❡st♦s✳ ▲❛ s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❡s β̂1 = SSxx ② β̂0 = ȳ − β̂1 x̄, ❞♦♥❞❡

n
X n
X
SSxy = (xi − x̄) (yi − ȳ) = xi yi − nx̄ȳ
i=1 i=1
n n
2
X X
SSxx = (xi − x̄) = x2i − nx̄2 .
i=1 i=1

❈♦♥ ❡st❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❡s ❢á❝✐❧ ❞❡♠♦str❛r q✉❡

n  2
X 2 SSxx SSyy − SSxy
SSE = yi − (β̂0 + β̂1 xi ) =
i=1
SSxx
SSxy 2
=SSyy − = SSyy − SSxy × β̂1 .
SSxx

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✽✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊♥ ❡st❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❞❡❧
❛❥✉st❡ ❝♦♠♦
v
uP   2
t i yi − β̂0 + β̂1 x
r u
SSE
se = =
n−2 n−2
s
SSyy − β̂1 SSxy
= .
n−2

❈✉❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r s❡❛ ❡st❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞✱ ♣❡♦r s♦♥ ❧❛s ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛r
❧❛s ❞♦s r❡❝t❛s ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s✳
❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ✭y)
❝♦♥♦❝✐❞♦ ❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ❞❡ s✉st❛♥❝✐❛ ✭x✮✿

SSxy = 36.24, SSx = 37.31

❧✉❡❣♦

SSxy
β̂1 = = 0.97
SSxx
β̂0 = ȳ − β̂1 x̄ = 63.69,

❛sí q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❛❥✉st❛❞❛ ❡s

ŷx = 63.69 + 0.97 × x.

▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ β̂1 = 0.97 ❡s q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱ Y ✱ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛ ❡♥ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ✵✳✾✼ ♣♦r ❝❛❞❛
✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✶ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦✳ ▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ β̂0 = 63.69 s❡rí❛ ❧❛ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r
♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ Y ❝✉❛♥❞♦ x = 0✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡s q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ ❡st❡ s✉♣✉❡st♦ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ ❛sí q✉❡ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡
t❡♥❡rs❡ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛✳
❱❛♠♦s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛r ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ✭y ✮ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡
❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ✭x✮✿
SSxy = 1187.96, SSxx = 744

❧✉❡❣♦

SSxy
β̂1 = = 1.60
SSxx
β̂0 = ȳ − β̂1 x̄ = 46.82,

✶✾✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✸✿ ◆✉❜❡s ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ② r❡❝t❛s ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❛❥✉st❛❞❛s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥

❛sí q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❛❥✉st❛❞❛ ❡s

ŷx = 46.82 + 1.60 × x.

P♦r ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✉♥✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✱ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛ ❡♥
♠❡❞✐❛ ✶✳✻✵✳
❆❤♦r❛ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛r ❧❛s ♥✉❜❡s ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❝♦♥ s✉s r❡❝t❛s ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❛❥✉st❛❞❛s✳ ❉❡
❡s❛ ♠❛♥❡r❛ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❝ó♠♦ ❞❡ ❜✉❡♥❛s s♦♥ ❧❛s r❡❝t❛s ❡♥ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ❛ s✉
❝❛♣❛❝✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳ ▲♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✸✳ P♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡
❡s ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠❡❥♦r ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛t✐✈❛ ❡s ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ s✐ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡
❡①♣❧✐❝❛t✐✈❛ ❡s ❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥✱ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♣❛s❛r ❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡r ✉♥❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ q✉❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❝♦♥❞✉❝✐r ❛ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡s ❡rr♦r❡s✳ ▲❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡
r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ Y ✱ ❞❛❞❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ X ♥♦ ❡s ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛
❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ❞❛❞❛ Y ✳ ▲❛ r❛③ó♥ ❡s ♠✉② s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛✿ ♣❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡ Y ❞❛❞♦ X
❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❛r n
X  2
yi − β̂0 + β̂1 xi ,
i=1

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✾✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ❞❛❞♦ Y ❞❡❜❡rí❛♠♦s ♠✐♥✐♠✐③❛r

n 
X  2
xi − β̂0 + β̂1 yi ,
i=1

❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ ♦❜t❡♥❞rí❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ s♦❧✉❝✐ó♥

SSxy
β̂1 =
SSyy
β̂0 = x̄ − β̂1 ȳ,

s✐❡♥❞♦ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✱ x̂ = β̂0 + β̂1 y ✳

❊❧ ❡rr♦r q✉❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❝♦♠❡t❡rs❡ ❝♦♥ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛ ❡s ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ Y ❞❛❞♦
X ✱ ❧❛ ❞❡ X ❞❛❞♦ Y ♣✉❡❞❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡rs❡ ❞❡s♣❡❥❛♥❞♦✳

❊s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ q✉❡✱ ♣❛r❛ t❡r♠✐♥❛r ❡st❡ ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦✱ r❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ β̂0 ② β̂1 s♦♥ só❧♦ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ β0 ② β1 ✱
❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❜❛s❛❞❛s ❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛♥ ♦❜t❡♥✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳
❯♥❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❞❡ ❤❛❝❡r♥♦s ❝♦♥s❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ② ♥♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❡①❛❝t♦s ✭❡s ✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡
❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❡①❛❝t♦ ❞❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✮ ❡s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s
❡st❛♥❞❛r ❞❡ ❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ β0 ② β1 ✳ ❙❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ q✉❡ ❞✐❝❤❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s s♦♥✿
s
  s2e
s.e. β̂1 =
SSxx
s 
x̄2

  1
s.e. β̂0 = s2e +
n SSxx

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❤❡♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦ ❧♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❞♦s r❡❝t❛s
❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ② ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✳ ❱❛♠♦s
❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛r ❡s❡ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s ❡st❛♥❞❛r❡s ❞❡ ❡s❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s✳ ▲♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s
❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ r❡s✉♠✐❞♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ t❛❜❧❛✿
   
▼♦❞❡❧♦ β̂0 s.e. β̂0 β̂1 s.e. β̂1
% absorción = β0 + β1 × V olumen ✻✸✳✻✾ ✽✳✽✵ ✵✳✾✼ ✷✳✽✸
% absorción = β0 + β1 × T iempo ✹✻✳✽✷ ✸✳✶✻ ✶✳✻✵ ✵✳✷✶

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s ❡st❛♥❞❛r ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ s♦♥ ♠❛②♦r❡s ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡
q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✳

✶✵✳✸✳ ❙✉♣✉❡st♦s ❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s ♣❛r❛ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛✲

❞r❛❞♦s

❍❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛ ❧♦ ú♥✐❝♦ q✉❡ ❧❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❡①✐❣✐❞♦ ❛ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❡s✿

✶✾✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

✶✳ ◗✉❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ❞❡ Y ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ x s❡ ❛❥✉st❡♥ ♠ás ♦ ♠❡♥♦s ❛ ✉♥❛ ❧í♥❡❛ r❡❝t❛✱ ❛❧❣♦ ❢á❝✐❧♠❡♥t❡
❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♥ ✉♥❛ ♥✉❜❡ ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s✳ ❙✐ ❡❧ ❛s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ♥✉❜❡ ♥♦ r❡❝✉❡r❞❛ ❛ ✉♥❛ ❧í♥❡❛ r❡❝t❛ s✐♥♦ ❛
♦tr♦ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥✱ ❧ó❣✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦ ❤❛r❡♠♦s r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳

✷✳ ◗✉❡ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s t❡♥❣❛♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝❡r♦✱ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ x✱ ❧♦ q✉❡✱ ♣♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ♥♦ ❡s ✉♥❛
❤✐♣ót❡s✐s s✐♥♦ ♠ás ❜✐❡♥ ✉♥ r❡q✉❡r✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❧ó❣✐❝♦ ❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✳

▲♦ q✉❡ ❛❤♦r❛ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❤❛❝❡r ❡s ❛ñ❛❞✐r ❛❧❣✉♥♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s ❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ést♦s s❡ ❝✉♠♣❧❛♥✱
❧❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ s❡❛♥ ♠✉② ❜✉❡♥❛s✳ ❊st♦ ♥♦s ✈❛ ❛ ♣❡r♠✐t✐r
❤❛❝❡r ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❡st♦s ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s ② s♦❜r❡ ❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❞❛rs❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡
❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✳
▲♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛ñ❛❞✐r s❡ r❡✜❡r❡♥ ❛❧ ❡rr♦r ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ε✳

❙✉♣✉❡st♦ ✶✳ ❚❛❧ ② ❝♦♠♦ ②❛ ❤❡♠♦s ❞✐❝❤♦✱ E [ǫ/X=x ] = E [ǫ] = 0✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ E [Y /X=x ] = β0 + β1 x✳

❙✉♣✉❡st♦ ✷✳ ▲❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ǫ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡s ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ x ❞❛❞♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ V ar (ǫ/X=x ) = σ 2
♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ x✳

❙✉♣✉❡st♦ ✸✳ ▲❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ǫ ❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

❙✉♣✉❡st♦ ✹✳ ▲♦s ❡rr♦r❡s ǫ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ✉♥♦s ❞❡ ♦tr♦s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❧❛ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❡rr♦r ♥♦ ✐♥✢✉②❡ ❡♥
❛❜s♦❧✉t♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ♦tr♦s ❡rr♦r❡s✳

❊♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥✱ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s ♣✉❡❞❡♥ r❡s✉♠✐rs❡ ❞✐❝✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ǫ |X=x → N (0, σ 2 ) ② s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❡♥tr❡
sí✳
❊st♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s s♦♥ r❡str✐❝t✐✈♦s✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡♥ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛rs❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ s❡ ❛♣❧✐❝❛ ❧❛ té❝♥✐❝❛✳ ❙✐ ❡❧ t❛♠❛ñ♦ ❞❡
❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❡s ❣r❛♥❞❡✱ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❞❡ ♥♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❡st❛rá ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ t❡♦r❡♠❛
❝❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ❧í♠✐t❡✳ ❊♥ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ x✱ ✉♥ ✐♥❝✉♠♣❧✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ♠♦❞❡r❛❞♦
♥♦ ❡s ❣r❛✈❡✱ ♣❡r♦ sí s✐ ❧❛s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s s♦♥ ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡s✳
❊①✐st❡♥ té❝♥✐❝❛s ❡s♣❡❝í✜❝❛s ♣❛r❛ ❡✈❛❧✉❛r ❡♥ q✉é ♠❡❞✐❞❛ s❡ ❝✉♠♣❧❡♥ ❡st❛s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✳ ❚❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡①✐st❡♥ ♣r♦✲
❝❡❞✐♠✐❡♥t♦s ♣❛r❛ ❝♦rr❡❣✐r ❡❧ ✐♥❝✉♠♣❧✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❡st♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s✳ ❊st♦s ❛s♣❡❝t♦s s❡rá♥ tr❛t❛❞♦s ❛❧ ✜♥❛❧ ❞❡❧
t❡♠❛✳

✶✵✳✹✳ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦

✶✵✳✹✳✶✳ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡

❆❧ ❝♦♠✐❡♥③♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡á❜❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❡❧ ❞❡❝✐❞✐r s✐ ❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ❞❡
❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❡s ♦ ♥♦ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✳ ❙✐ ♥♦s ✜❥❛♠♦s✱ ❡st♦ ❡s ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡
❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r s✐ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ β1 ❡s ♦ ♥♦ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞✐st✐♥t♦ ❞❡ ❝❡r♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ♣r♦❢✉♥❞✐③❛r ❡♥ ♣♦rq✉é ❡s
❛sí✳
❖❜s❡r✈❡♠♦s ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✹✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ♥✉❜❡ ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ② ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❛❥✉st❛❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✱ ➽♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s
✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❜✉❡♥❛ ❡♥tr❡ x ❡ y ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ❜✉❡♥ ❛❥✉st❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥❄ ❈❛❜rí❛ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ sí✱ ♣❡r♦

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✾✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✹✿ ◆✉❜❡s ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ② r❡❝t❛s ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❧❛s ❛❥✉st❛♥

❡st❛rí❛♠♦s ❡q✉✐✈♦❝❛❞♦s✿ s✐ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛r y ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ x✱ ➽❝✉á♥t♦ ✈❛rí❛ y ❝♦♥❢♦r♠❡
✈❛rí❛ x❄ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❡s❛ r❡❝t❛ ❡s ❝❡r♦ ♦ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝❡r♦✱ ♣♦r ♠✉❝❤♦ q✉❡ ❝❛♠❜✐❡s x✱ ❡s♦
♥♦ ❛❢❡❝t❛ ❛❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ y ✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ➼x ♥♦ ✐♥✢✉②❡ ♥❛❞❛ s♦❜r❡ y ✦ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♥✉❜❡ ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛
❞❡r❡❝❤❛✱ ❛ ♣❡s❛r ❞❡ q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ❡s ♣❡♦r✱ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❛❥✉st❛❞❛ sí t✐❡♥❡ ♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞✐st✐♥t❛ ❞❡ ❝❡r♦✱
❧✉❡❣♦ ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ y ✈❛rí❡ ✈✐❡♥❡ ❞❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❜✉❡♥❛ ♣❛rt❡ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❤❡❝❤♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ x ✈❛rí❛✱ ② ❡❧❧♦ ♦❝✉rr❡ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❧❛
♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❡s❛ r❡❝t❛ ❡s ❞✐st✐♥t❛ ❞❡ ❝❡r♦✳ ❆sí ♣✉❡s✱ ♥♦ ❧♦ ♦❧✈✐❞❡♠♦s✿ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❡stá♥ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s
❧✐♥❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❛❥✉st❛ ✉♥❛ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♦tr❛ ❡s
❞✐st✐♥t❛ ❞❡ ❝❡r♦✳
P✉❡s ❜✐❡♥✱ ❞❛❞♦s ❧♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s ❞❡s❝r✐t♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡r ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦✱
t❛❧ ② ❝♦♠♦ s❡ r❡s✉♠❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✷✳ ❊♥ ❡❧❧❛✱ s✐✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❡s ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r s✐ ❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ❞❡
❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❡s ♦ ♥♦ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ b1 s❡rá ❝❡r♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ♣❛rtí❛♠♦s ❞❡❧ ❞❡s❡♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r s✐ ❛❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥
②✴♦ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ✐♥✢✉í❛♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✳ ▲❛s ♥✉❜❡s ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ② ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ❞❡
❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ②❛ ♥♦s ❞✐❡r♦♥ ♣✐st❛s✿ ❞❛❜❛ ❧❛ ✐♠♣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ sí ✐♥✢✉í❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡
❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ q✉❡❞❛❜❛ t❛♥ ❝❧❛r♦ s✐ ❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ❧♦ ❤❛❝í❛✳ ❊s ❡❧ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r❧♦✳
◆♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s ❡♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r s✐ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ✐♥✢✉②❡ ♦ ♥♦ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱
❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s s✐ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧

P orcentaje de absorción = β0 + β1 × T iempo de exposición + ε

✶✾✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛
H 0 : β 1 = b1 H0 : β 1 = b1 H 0 : β 1 = b1
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : β1 < b1 H1 : β1 6= b1 H1 : β1 > b1
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ˆ SSyy −β̂1 SSxy
t = √β21 −b1 , s2e = = SSE
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ se /SSxx n−2 n−2

❘❡❣✐ó♥
t < tα;n−2 |t| > t1−α/2;n−2 t > t1−α;n−2
❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Tn−2 < t] 2P [Tn−2 > |t|] P [T > t]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s ▲♦s ❞❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ❙❡❝❝✐ó♥ ✶✵✳✸
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✷✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ s♦❜r❡ β1

❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ β1 ❡s ♦ ♥♦ ❝❡r♦✳ ❋♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s H0 : β1 = 0 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : β1 6= 0✿

β̂1 = 1.6
SSyy − β̂1 SSxy
s2e = = 32.82
n−2
t0.975;9−2 = 2.364624, t0.025;30−2 = −2.364624
1.6 − 0
t= p = 7.60,
32.82/744

❧✉❡❣♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❝❛❜í❛ ❡s♣❡r❛r✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r ❛ ❧❛ ❧✉③ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ② ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❡❧
❡❢❡❝t♦ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦✳ ❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ❞❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❡s
p = 2P [T7 > 7.60] = 0.000126✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛❤♦r❛ ❛ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r s✐ ❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❞❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦✳
❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❛❤♦r❛ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s s✐ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧

P orcentaje de absorción = β0 + β1 × V olumen + ε

❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ β1 ❡s ♦ ♥♦ ❝❡r♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♣❧❛♥t❡❛♠♦s ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ H0 : β1 = 0 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : β1 6= 0✿

β̂1 = 0.97
SSyy − β̂1 SSxy
s2e = = 298.77
n−2
t0.975;9−2 = 2.364624, t0.025;30−2 = −2.364624
0.97 − 0
t= p = 0.34,
298.77/37.31

❧✉❡❣♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❝❛❜í❛ ❡s♣❡r❛r✱ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r ❛ ❧❛ ❧✉③ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ② ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❡❧
❡❢❡❝t♦ ❞❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ s❡❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦✳ ❊❧ ♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ❞❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❡s p = 2P [T7 >
0.34] = 0.741✳
❊♥ ✈✐st❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s✱ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❛❤♦r❛ ❞❡❥❛r❡♠♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ❞❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧
♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ② só❧♦ t❡♥❞r❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ❡❢❡❝t♦ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✾✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦ q✉í♠✐❝♦ ❡stá ❝❛❧✐❜r❛♥❞♦ ✉♥ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ♣❛r❛ ♠❡❞✐r ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❈❖

❡♥ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ ❛✐r❡✳ ❊st❛ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❝✐ó♥ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❞❡❜❡ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r q✉❡ ♥♦ ❤❛② ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛s
❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛ ❞❡ ❈❖ ✭x✮ ② ❧❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ✭y ✮✳ P❛r❛
❡❧❧♦ t♦♠❛ ✶✶ ♠✉❡str❛s ❞❡ ❛✐r❡ ❡♥ ❧❛s q✉❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ s✉ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r❛ ❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❈❖ ② ❧❛s ❝♦♠♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥ ❧❛
❝♦♥❝❡♥tr❛❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s s♦♥ ❧♦s s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡s ✭❧❛s ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s s♦♥ ♣♣♠✮✿

x ✵ ✶✵ ✷✵ ✸✵ ✹✵ ✺✵ ✻✵ ✼✵ ✽✵ ✾✵ ✶✵✵
y ✶ ✶✷ ✷✵ ✷✾ ✸✽ ✹✽ ✻✶ ✻✽ ✼✾ ✾✶ ✾✼

▲♦ ✐❞❡❛❧✱ ❧♦ ❞❡s❡❛❞♦✱ s❡rí❛ q✉❡ y = x✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ q✉❡ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛ y ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ x t✉✈✐❡r❛
❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡s β0 = 0 ② β1 = 1✳ P♦r ❛❤♦r❛ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❡♥tr❛r♥♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r ♣❛s♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ q✉❡
❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ❡stá ❜✐❡♥ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞♦✱ q✉❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r q✉❡ β1 = 1✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱

SSxx = 11000; SSyy = 10506.73; SSxy = 10740

10460
β̂1 = = 0.976
11000
SSyy − β̂1 SSxy
s2e = = 2.286
n−2

♣♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱
0.976 − 1
t= p = −1.639.
1.964/11000
❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ t1− 0.05
2 ;11−2
= t0.975;9 = 2.262 ② |−1.639| < 2.262, ♥♦ ❤❛② r❛③♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r q✉❡ β1 6= 1✳
❆sí ♣✉❡s✱ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣♦❞rí❛ s❡r
y = β0 + x,

❛✉♥q✉❡ ❧♦ ❞❡s❡❛❞♦✱ ✐♥s✐st❛♠♦s✱ s❡rí❛ q✉❡ ❢✉❡r❛

y = x,

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ q✉❡ ❧♦ q✉❡ ♠✐❞❛ ❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❛ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞ r❡❛❧ ❞❡ ❈❖ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛✐r❡✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s
❞✐❝❤♦✱ ❡s♦ ♦❝✉rr✐rí❛ s✐ β0 = 0✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡♥ ❛✉s❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❈❖✱ ❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ❡sté ❛
❝❡r♦✳

❆❞❡♠ás ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ❡s tr✐✈✐❛❧ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ ②❛ q✉❡
❝♦♥♦❝❡♠♦s s✉ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥✱ s✉ ❡rr♦r ❡st❛♥❞❛r ② ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠✉❡str❡♦ ✭t✲st✉❞❡♥t✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡♥ ❡❧
❝♦♥tr❛st❡✮✳ ❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱
h     i
P β1 ∈ β̂1 − t1− α2 ;n−2 × s.e. β̂1 , β̂1 + t1− α2 ;n−2 × s.e. β̂1 = 1 − α.

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ q✉❡ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ✈❡r s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦✱ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡
❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ β1 ❡s (0.94, 1.01)✳ ❈♦♠♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r β1 = 1 ❡s ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❝♦♥✜❛❜❧❡ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✱
❧✉❡❣♦ r❛t✐✜❝❛♠♦s q✉❡ ♥♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ❡sté ♠❛❧ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞♦✳

✶✾✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧ ❛ ❯♥✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❚✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r✉❡❜❛ ❇✐❧❛t❡r❛❧
❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛
H 0 : β 0 = b0 H0 : β 0 = b0 H 0 : β 0 = b0
❍✐♣ót❡s✐s
H1 : β0 < b0 H1 : β0 6= b0 H1 : β0 > b0
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ βˆ0 −b0 SSyy −β̂1 SSxy SSE
t= , s2e = =
❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ n−2 n−2
r 
1 x̄2
s2e n + SSxx

❘❡❣✐ó♥
t < tα;n−2 |t| > t1−α/2;n−2 t > t1−α;n−2
❞❡ r❡❝❤❛③♦
♣✲✈❛❧♦r P [Tn−2 < t] 2P [Tn−2 > |t|] P [T > t]
❙✉♣✉❡st♦s ▲♦s ❞❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ ❙❡❝❝✐ó♥ ✶✵✳✸
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✸✿ ❈♦♥tr❛st❡ s♦❜r❡ β0

✶✵✳✹✳✷✳ ■♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥

❊st❡ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ♣♦♥❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ q✉❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣✉❡❞❡ t❡♥❡r ✐♥t❡rés r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡
β0 ✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✸ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡❞✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦✳
❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ t❡♥❣❛♠♦s ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛ s❡r ❞❡ ✐♥t❡rés ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ s♦❜r❡ β0 ② β1 ✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱
❞❡❧ t✐♣♦ β0 = 0✱ β1 = 1✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s ♠ú❧t✐♣❧❡s s✉♣❡r❛♥ ❧♦s ❝♦♥t❡♥✐❞♦s ❞❡ ❡st❛
❛s✐❣♥❛t✉r❛✳ ▲♦ ú♥✐❝♦ q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❤❛❝❡r ❡♥ ✉♥ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ♥✉❡str♦ ❡s r❡❛❧✐③❛r s❡♥❞♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s s♦❜r❡
β0 ② β1 ♣♦r s❡♣❛r❛❞♦✱ t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛♠❜♦s ❝♦♥tr❛st❡s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r s✐✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ β0 = 0✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❞rá ❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r
q✉❡ ♥♦ ❤❛② r❛③♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ❡stá ♠❛❧ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞♦✳ P❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦✱

β̂0 = ȳ − β̂1 x̄ = 0.636

♣♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱
0.636 − 0
t= q
= 0.746.
1 502
2.286 11 + 11000

❈♦♠♦q✉✐❡r❛ q✉❡ 0.746 < t0.975;9 = 2.261✱ t❛♠♣♦❝♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s r❛③♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ β0 = 0 ❝♦♥ ✉♥ ✾✺ ✪
❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ❧✉❡❣♦✱ ❡♥ r❡s✉♠❡♥✱ ♥♦ ❡①✐st❡♥ r❛③♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ❡stá ♠❛❧ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ■♠❛❣✐♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t❛❧♠❡♥t❡ q✉❡✱ t❛❧ ② ❝♦♠♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝❡ ❧❛ ❧❡② ❞❡
❖❤♠✱ ❧❛ t❡♥s✐ó♥ ✭V ✮ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s ❡①tr❡♠♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ r❡s✐st❡♥❝✐❛ ② ❧❛ ✐♥t❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝♦rr✐❡♥t❡ ✭I ✮ q✉❡ ❝✐r❝✉❧❛
♣♦r ❡❧❧❛ s❡ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛♥ s✐❣✉✐❡♥❞♦ ❧❛ ❧❡②
V = R × I,

❞♦♥❞❡ R ❡s ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡s✐st❡♥❝✐❛✳ ◆♦s♦tr♦s ✈❛♠♦s ❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ ✉♥❛ ♠✐s♠❛ r❡s✐st❡♥❝✐❛✱
✈❛r✐❛♥❞♦ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡♥s✐❞❛❞✱ ♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❡❝✉❛❝✐ó♥ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛

V = β0 + β1 × I,

s✐❡♥❞♦ β0 = 0 ② β1 = R✳ ▲♦s ❞❛t♦s s♦♥ ❧♦s q✉❡ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✹✳

❚❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ H0 : β0 = 0 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : β0 6= 0 q✉❡ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡ ❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✾✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❖❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥ ■ ✭♠❆✮ ❱ ✭❱✮

✶ ✵✳✶✻ ✵✳✷✻
✷ ✻✳✺✹ ✶✳✵✹
✸ ✶✷✳✼✻ ✷✳✵✷
✹ ✶✾✳✷✻ ✸✳✵✺
✺ ✷✺✳✻✸ ✹✳✵✻
✻ ✸✶✳✽✶ ✺✳✵✸
✼ ✸✽✳✷✶ ✻✳✵✸
✽ ✹✼✳✹✵ ✼✳✵✸
✾ ✺✹✳✵✵ ✽✳✵✻
✶✵ ✻✵✳✽✵ ✽✳✾✾
✶✶ ✻✽✳✵✵ ✶✵✳✵✶
❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✹✿ ❉❛t♦s ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ▲❡② ❞❡ ❖❤♠

q✉❡ ♥✉❡str♦s ❛♣❛r❛t♦s ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡stá♥ ❜✐❡♥ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞♦s✱ ♣✉❡st♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❧❡② ❞❡ ❖❤♠ ♦❜❧✐❣❛ ❛ q✉❡ β0 = 0✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛❧❧á✿

SSxx = 5105.90
SSyy = 107.25
SSxy = 739.49
β̂1 = 0.14
β̂0 = 0.25
s2e = 0.022

❆sí ♣✉❡s✱
0.25 − 0
t= q
= 3.531.
1 33.142
0.022 11 + 5105.90

❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ t0.975,9 = 2.262✱ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ r❡❝❤❛③❛r ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s H0 : β0 = 0✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ➼❝♦♥tr❛❞✐❝❡ ❧❛ ❧❡② ❞❡
❖❤♠✦ ▲♦ q✉❡ ❡st❡ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ♣♦♥❡ ❞❡ ♠❛♥✐✜❡st♦ ❡s q✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ❛❧❣ú♥ ♣r♦❜❧❡♠❛ ❡♥ ♥✉❡str❛s ♠❡❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s✳

❉❡❥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ♣♦❝♦ ❞❡ ❧❛❞♦ ❡st❡ ú❧t✐♠♦ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦✳ ❙✐ q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛r ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡s✐st❡♥❝✐❛✱ ✉♥❛
❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧ ❡s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦✱ R̂ = β̂1 = 0.14✱ ② ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛
✭♦♠✐t✐♠♦s ❧♦s ❞❡t❛❧❧❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❝á❧❝✉❧♦s✮ r❡s✉❧t❛ s❡r (0.141, 0.149)✳

❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛r ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥✱ ❞❛❞♦
♣♦r h     i
P β0 ∈ β̂0 − t1− α2 ;n−2 × s.e. β̂0 , β̂0 + t1− α2 ;n−2 × s.e. β̂0 = 1 − α.

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦✱ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ❡s

(−1.29, 2.57)✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ ❡s ❝♦♥✜❛❜❧❡ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ β0 = 0✳ ❊♥ s✉♠❛✱ ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ β1 = 1 ②
β0 = 0✱ ❧✉❡❣♦ ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❡❝✉❛❝✐ó♥ y = x ♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r r❡❝❤❛③❛❞❛ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞✐s♣♦♥✐❜❧❡s✱
❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❤❛② r❛③♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡s♣❡❝tró♠❡tr♦ ❡sté ♠❛❧ ❝❛❧✐❜r❛❞♦✳

✶✾✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ▲❡② ❞❡ ❖❤♠✱ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛

♦r❞❡♥❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥ ❡s (0.09, 0.41)✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡s❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ♥♦ ✐♥❝❧✉②❡ ❛❧ ❝❡r♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❛✜r♠❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥
✾✺ ✪ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ♥♦ ♣❛s❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ ♦r✐❣❡♥✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❝♦♥tr❛❞✐❝❡ ❧❛ ▲❡② ❞❡ ❖❤♠✳

✶✵✳✺✳ ❊❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧

β̂1 ♠✐❞❡ ❡♥ ❝✐❡rt♦ ♠♦❞♦ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❡①✐st❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ② ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ ②❛
q✉❡ s❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❡❧ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ q✉❡ s✉❢r❡ Y ♣♦r ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ ✉♥✐t❛r✐♦ ❞❡ X ✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❡s ✉♥❛
♠❡❞✐❞❛ s✉❥❡t❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❡s❝❛❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s X ❡ Y ✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ s❡ ❤❛❝❡ ❞✐❢í❝✐❧ ♣♦❞❡r ❝♦♠♣❛r❛r ❞✐st✐♥t♦s β̂1′ s
❡♥tr❡ sí✳
❊♥ ❡st❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡✜♥✐r ❡❧ ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ q✉❡ ♦❢r❡❝❡ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛
❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢♦rt❛❧❡③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ Y ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ♣❡r♦ q✉❡ ❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ β̂1 ✱ ❡s
❛❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛❧✱ ②❛ q✉❡ s✉s ✈❛❧♦r❡s s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡stá♥ ❡♥tr❡ −1 ② 1✱ s❡❛♥ ❝✉❛❧❡s s❡❛♥ ❧❛s ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳

❉❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s (x1 , y1 ) , ..., (xn , yn )✱ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧
♠✉❡str❛❧ r s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❝♦♠♦ √
SSxy SSxx
r= p =p β̂1 .
SSxx SSyy SSyy

❈♦♠♦ ❝♦♠❡♥tá❜❛♠♦s✱ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ r ❡s ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡✿

r ❝❡r❝❛♥♦ ♦ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❛ ✵ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ ♣♦❝❛ ♦ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ Y.

❈✉❛♥t♦ ♠ás s❡ ❛❝❡rq✉❡ ❛ ✶ ó ✲✶✱ ♠ás ❢✉❡rt❡ s❡rá ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ Y ✳

❙✐ r = ±1✱ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣✉♥t♦s ❝❛❡rá♥ ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✳

❯♥ ✈❛❧♦r ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦ ❞❡ r ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ Y t✐❡♥❞❡ ❛ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛r ❝✉❛♥❞♦ X ❛✉♠❡♥t❛✱ ② ❡s❛ t❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡s ♠ás
❛❝✉s❛❞❛ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠ás ❝❡r❝❛♥♦ ❡stá r ❞❡ ✶✳

❯♥ ✈❛❧♦r ♥❡❣❛t✐✈♦ ❞❡ r ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ q✉❡ Y ❞✐s♠✐♥✉②❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ X ❛✉♠❡♥t❛✱ ② ❡s❛ t❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡s ♠ás ❛❝✉s❛❞❛
❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠ás ❝❡r❝❛♥♦ ❡stá r ❞❡ ✲✶✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✺ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡♥ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s q✉❡ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛r r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧♦s
❞✐st✐♥t♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ r✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡r ❤✐♥❝❛♣✐é ❡♥ q✉❡ r só❧♦ ❡s ❝❛♣❛③ ❞❡ ❞❡s❝✉❜r✐r ❧❛ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳ ❙✐✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ ❣rá✜❝♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛ ✜❣✉r❛✱ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ Y ♥♦ ❡s ❞❡
t✐♣♦ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ r ♥♦ ❡s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞♦ ❝♦♠♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛❞♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢✉❡r③❛ ❞❡ ❡s❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✻ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ❛tí♣✐❝♦ ❡♥tr❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❞❛t♦s ❝♦♥ ✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ♠ás
q✉❡ ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡✳ P♦r ❝✉❧♣❛ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❞❛t♦✱ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s❡rá ❜❛❥♦✳ ➽◗✉é ❞❡❜❡ ❤❛❝❡rs❡ ❡♥

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✶✾✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

0
100

20

10000
−60 −40 −20
80

10
60

6000
0
40

−10

2000
20

−20
−100
0

−30

0
0 20 60 100 0 20 60 100 0 20 60 100 0 20 60 100

Correlación lineal positiva fuerte Correlación lineal negativa fuerte Ausencia de correlación lineal Correlación parabólica

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✺✿ ❱❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ r ② s✉s ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✳

❡st❡ ❝❛s♦❄ ❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ♥♦ s❡ ❞❡❜❡♥ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛r ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ♣❡r♦ ♣♦❞rí❛ ♦❝✉rr✐r q✉❡ ❞❛t♦s ❛tí♣✐❝♦s
❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❛♥ ❛ ❡rr♦r❡s ❡♥ ❧❛ t♦♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠✉❡str❛s✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ r❡❣✐str♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ♦✱ ✐♥❝❧✉s♦✱ q✉❡ r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ♥♦
♣r♦❝❡❞❛♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❡❧ r❡st♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✿ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❡❧✐♠✐♥❛r❧♦s ♣♦❞rí❛ ❡st❛r ❥✉st✐✜❝❛❞♦
❞❡ ❝❛r❛ ❛ ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ♠ás ♣r❡❝✐s❛ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❈♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❝❛✉s❛❧✐❞❛❞✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡r ✉♥❛ ❛❞✈❡rt❡♥❝✐❛ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✐♥t❡r✲
♣r❡t❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✳ ❊s ♠✉② ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡ q✉❡ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐❝❡ ♣❛r❛ ❥✉st✐✜❝❛r r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s
❝❛✉s❛✲❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ② ❡s♦ ❡s ✉♥ ❣r❛✈❡ ❡rr♦r✳ r só❧♦ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ ♣r❡s❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡s♦ ♥♦
♣❡r♠✐t❡ ✐♥❢❡r✐r✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ q✉❡ ✉♥ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ X s❡❛ ❧❛ ❝❛✉s❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ ♦ ✉♥❛ ❞✐s♠✐♥✉❝✐ó♥
❞❡ Y ✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❡♠♦s r ❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡té♠♦s❧♦✳
❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈♦❧✉♠❡♥ ❞❡ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦✱
36.24
r= √ = 0.129;
37.30 × 2126.61

✈❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s ♠✉② ♣❡q✉❡ñ❛❀ ❞❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛♠♦s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s s♦❜r❡
β1 q✉❡ ❡r❛ ♥♦ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈❛✳
❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱
36.24
r= √ = 0.944.
744 × 2126.61

❊st❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ sí r❡s✉❧t❛ s❡r ♠✉② ❢✉❡rt❡ ② ❡♥ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❞✐r❡❝t♦✳ P♦r ❡s♦ ❛❧ r❡❛❧✐③❛r ❡❧ t❡st s♦❜r❡ β1 ✱ ést❡ sí
r❡s✉❧tó s❡r s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛t✐✈♦✳

◆♦ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♦❧✈✐❞❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ r✱ ♠✐❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s

✷✵✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

r = 0.27 r^2 = 0.07

Slope = 0.26 Intercept = 3.56
End

10
LS Line
8
6

Add Point
y

Delete Point
2
0

Move Point
0 2 4 6 8 10

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✻✿ ❯♥ ❞❛t♦ ❛tí♣✐❝♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❞❛t♦s r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❧✐♥❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡✳

❞❡ X ② ❞❡ Y ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳ ❊①✐st❡ ✉♥ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✐♠✐❧❛r ♣❡r♦ q✉❡ s❡ r❡✜❡r❡ ❛ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s
♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✳ ❊✈✐❞❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡✱ r ❡s ✉♥ ❡st✐♠❛❞♦r ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✳

❉❛❞❛s ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s X ❡ Y ✱ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✱ ρ✱ s❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❝♦♠♦❛

√
E [(X − EX) (Y − EY )] V arX
ρ= √ = √ β1 .
V arXV arY V arY

❛ ❊st❡ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ s❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ ❞❡ ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s✳

■♥♠❡❞✐❛t❛♠❡♥t❡ s✉r❣❡ ❧❛ ❝✉❡st✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s✳ P♦❞❡♠♦s ② ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ✉t✐❧✐③❛r r ♣❛r❛ ❤❛❝❡r ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s
s♦❜r❡ ρ✳ ❉❡ t♦❞❛s ❢♦r♠❛s✱ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❡st❛s ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s s♦♥ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡s ❛ ❧❛s q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡♠♦s s♦❜r❡ β1 ✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❧❛
r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ β1 ② ρ ♣r♦✈♦❝❛ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s H0 : β1 = 0 s❡❛ ❡q✉✐✈❛❧❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s H0 : ρ = 0✳ P♦❞❡♠♦s✱
♣♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ r❡s✉♠✐❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❈✉❛❞r♦ ✶✵✳✷ ♣❛r❛ b1 = 0 ② t❡♥✐❡♥❞♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡
√
r n−2
t= √ .
1 − r2

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛r H0 : ρ = 0 ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : ρ 6= 0 ❞❡ ♥✉❡✈♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✳

√
❊❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❡s t = 0.944×
√ 9−2
1−0.9442
= 7.60✱ q✉❡ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ t ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❝♦♥tr❛st❛♠♦s
H0 : β1 = 0✱ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ H1 : β1 6= 0✳ ❱❡♠♦s q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❡s ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✵✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✶✵✳✻✳ ❋✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✳ ❊❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐✲

♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧
❈♦♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦✱ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛rs❡ ❝♦♠♦ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♦tr❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✳ ❊♥ ❡st❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r ✉♥❛
♠❡❞✐❞❛ ♠ás ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛ ♣❛r❛ ✈❛❧♦r❛r ❤❛st❛ q✉é ♣✉♥t♦ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉②❡ ❛ ♣r❡❞❡❝✐r ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡
❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✳
❘❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s ❧♦ q✉❡ ❤❛❜í❛♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✹✳ ❆❧❧í t❡♥í❛♠♦s ✉♥❛ r❡❝t❛✱ ❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛✱ q✉❡
❛♣❛r❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡r❛ ❜✉❡♥❛✱ ♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞❡r❡❝❤❛ ❛♣❛r❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡r❛ ♣❡♦r✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ②❛ ❞✐❥✐♠♦s q✉❡
❡s♦ ❡r❛ ✐♥❡①❛❝t♦✳ ❊♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ♥♦s♦tr♦s ♥♦ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r ❡①❛❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ s✐ ❧♦s ♣✉♥t♦s ❡stá♥ ♦ ♥♦ ❡♥ t♦r♥♦
❛ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✱ s✐♥♦ ❡♥ q✉é ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛ Y ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ✳
❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❡♥tr❛r ❡♥ ❞❡t❛❧❧❡s✳ ◆❡❝❡s✐t❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❡①♣❧✐q✉❡ Y ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X ♣♦rq✉❡ Y t✐❡♥❡ ❞❛t♦s q✉❡
♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥ ✉♥❛ ❝✐❡rt❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✿ ➽❝✉á♥t❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❄ ❈✉❛♥❞♦ ❞❡✜♥✐♠♦s ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ❡s❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❧❛
♠❡❞✐♠♦s ❝♦♠♦ n
2
X
SSyy = (yi − ȳ) ,
i=1

❞❡ t❛❧ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠ás ✈❛rí❡♥ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡ Y ♠❛②♦r s❡rá SSyy ✳ P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❛❥✉st❛♠♦s ♣♦r
❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ŷx = β̂0 + β̂1 × x✱ ♠❡❞✐♠♦s ❡❧ ❡rr♦r q✉❡ ❝♦♠❡t❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ❝♦♥
n
2
X
SSE = (yi − ŷx ) .
i=1

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ♣♦♥❡r♥♦s ❡♥ ❧❛s ❞♦s s✐t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❧í♠✐t❡ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❞❛rs❡ ❡♥ ❝✉❛♥t♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r❡❝✐s✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡
r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✿

√
❙✐ X ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❝♦♥ Y ✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ρ = 0✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ β1 = √ V arY ρ
V arX
=0②
❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❡s s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡

ŷi = β0 + β1 xi
= ȳ.

❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ X ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❝♦♥ Y ✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ❧❛ ♠❡❥♦r ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s
❞❛r ♣♦r ❡❧ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ❡s ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✳ ❆❞❡♠ás✱ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦
n
2
X
SSE = (yi − ŷi )
i=1
n
2
X
= (yi − ȳ) = SSyy ,
i=1

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ SSE ❡s ❡❧ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ Y ✳ ❊stá ❝❧❛r♦ q✉❡ ❡st❛ ❡s ❧❛ ♣❡♦r ❞❡ ❧❛s
s✐t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❞❡ ❝❛r❛ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r❡❝✐s✐ó♥✳
√
❙✐ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ X ❡ Y ❡s t♦t❛❧✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ρ = 1, ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ β1 = √ V arY ✳
V arX
❆❞❡♠ás✱ s✐ ❧❛

✷✵✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡s t♦t❛❧✱ y = ŷx ✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡

n
2
X
SSE = (yi − ŷi ) = 0.
i=1

❊st❛✱ ❞❡s❞❡ ❧✉❡❣♦✱ ❡s ❧❛ ♠❡❥♦r ❞❡ ❧❛s s✐t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s✳

▲❛ ✐❞❡❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❡s ❝✉❛♥t✐✜❝❛r ❡♥ q✉é ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡st❛♠♦s ♠ás ❝❡r❝❛ ♦ ♠ás ❧❡❥♦s ❞❡
❡st❛s ❞♦s s✐t✉❛❝✐♦♥❡s✳ ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ SSE ✱ q✉❡ ❡s ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ ✐r ❞❡ 0 ✭♠❡❥♦r
s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡✮ ❛ SSyy ✭♣❡♦r s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡✮✱ t❛♥ só❧♦ t❡♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ r❡❧❛t✐✈✐③❛r ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❡s❝❛❧❛ ❝ó♠♦❞❛ ✉♥❛
♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❞❡ ❡st❡ ❡rr♦r✳

❙❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❝♦♠♦

SSE
r2 = 1 − .
SSyy

◆ót❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s r ❛❧ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦✱ ②❛ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦✱ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ s✐♠♣❧❡ ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡ ❝♦♥ ❡❧
❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❛❧ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦✳
P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ r2 ❡s ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ X ❝♦♥tr✐❜✉②❡ ❛ ❧❛ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ Y ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❡s❝❛❧❛ ❞❡
✵ ❛ ✶✱ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡❧ ✵ ✐♥❞✐❝❛ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❡rr♦r ❡s ❡❧ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ Y ② ❡❧ ✶ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r❡❝✐s✐ó♥ t♦t❛❧✱
❡❧ ❡rr♦r ✵✳ ▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ s✉❡❧❡ ❞❛rs❡ ❡♥ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡✳ ❉✐❝❤♦ ❞❡ ♦tr❛ ❢♦r♠❛✿

❆♣r♦①✐♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ 100 × r2 % ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ Y r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❞❡ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛

♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r ❡①♣❧✐❝❛❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡ Y ❞❛❞❛ X ✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣❧✐❝❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✱ r2 = 0.892✱ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛

q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❡❧ ✽✾ ✪ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥ t♦t❛❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r
❡①♣❧✐❝❛❞❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ ♠í♥✐♠♦s ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦s ❞❛❞♦ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✳ ❊s ❡✈✐❞❡♥t❡ q✉❡ ❡s ✉♥
♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡✱ q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛rá ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s r❡❧❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡ ✜❛❜❧❡s✳

✶✵✳✼✳ Pr❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ ② ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦

❘❡❝♦r❞❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❛❥✉st❛❞♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✱

ŷx = β̂0 + β̂1 x

②✱ ♣♦r ♦tr♦ ❧❛❞♦✱

E [Y /X=x ] = β0 + β1 x,

❧✉❡❣♦ ŷx ♣✉❡❞❡ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛rs❡ ❞❡ ❞♦s ❢♦r♠❛s✿

✶✳ ❈♦♠♦ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r q✉❡ t♦♠❛rá Y ❝✉❛♥❞♦ X = x✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✵✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✷✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ Y ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r X = x, ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❞❡ E [Y /X=x ]✳

❆♠❜❛s ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞❡s ❡stá♥ s✉❥❡t❛s ❛ ✐♥❝❡rt✐❞✉♠❜r❡✱ q✉❡ s❡rá t❛♥t♦ ♠❛②♦r ❝✉❛♥t♦ ♠ás ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t❡♥❣❛ Y, ②✴♦
♣❡♦r s❡❛ ❡❧ ❛❥✉st❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✳
▲♦ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ✈❡r ❡♥ ❡st❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥❝❧✉✐r ❡❧ t❡♠❛ ❡s ❝ó♠♦ ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡r r❡❣✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ♣❛r❛ ❡st❛s
♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ Y ② ♣❛r❛ ❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♠❡❞✐♦s ❞❡ Y ❞❛❞♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X ✳ ❊st♦s
r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s r❡q✉✐❡r❡♥ q✉❡ s❡ ✈❡r✐✜q✉❡♥ ❧♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s ❛❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❧❡s s♦❜r❡ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s ❞❛❞♦s ❡♥ ❧❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥ ✶✵✳✸✳

P♦❞❡♠♦s ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ (1 − α) × 100 % ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ X = x✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ Y s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛
❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦
 s s 
2 2
ŷx − t1−α/2;n−2 × se 1 (x − x̄) 1 (x − x̄) 
+ , ŷx + t1−α/2;n−2 × se + ,
n SSxx n SSxx

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛r q✉❡

  s  
1 (x − x̄)2 
P E[Y /X=x ] ∈ ŷx ∓ t1−α/2;n−2 × se + |X=x  = 1 − α.
n SSxx

❆s✐♠✐s♠♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛r ❝♦♥ ✉♥ (1 − α)×100 % ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ X = x✱ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r Y s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❛
❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦
 s s 
2 2
ŷx − t1−α/2;n−2 × se 1 (x − x̄) 1 (x − x̄) 
1+ + , ŷx + t1−α/2;n−2 × se 1+ + ,
n SSxx n SSxx

❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❣❛r❛♥t✐③❛r q✉❡

  s  
1 (x − x̄)2 
P Y ∈ ŷx ∓ t1−α/2;n−2 × se 1+ + |X=x  = 1 − α
n SSxx

◆♦t❛✳ ◆♦ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♦❧✈✐❞❛r q✉❡ ❧♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ❡st✐♠❛r ❧♦ s♦♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s
❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X ❡ Y ✳ ❆ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❡st♦s ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ♦❜t❡♥❡r✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡
r❡❝♦r❞❛r✱ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s ② ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❛❞♦s ❞❡ X. ❉❛❞♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ s❡ ❜❛s❛ ♣r❡❝✐s❛♠❡♥t❡
❡♥ ❡s♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✱ ♥♦ ❡s ❝♦♥✈❡♥✐❡♥t❡ ❤❛❝❡r ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s ② ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣❛r❛ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X
q✉❡ s❡ ❡♥❝✉❡♥tr❡♥ ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡❧ r❛♥❣♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✼ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ♣❛r❛ ❧♦s ❞❛t♦s ❞❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥
❞❡❧ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦ ❥✉♥t♦ ❝♦♥ ❧í♥❡❛s q✉❡ ❝♦♥t✐❡♥❡♥ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛s ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s ②
❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ ❧♦s ❞✐st✐♥t♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X ✳

✷✵✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

110

105

100

Resistencia
observed
95 fit
conf int
pred int

90

85

80

x
50 60 70 80 90 100

Velocidad

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✼✿ ❘❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❝♦♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛s ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s ✭❢r❛♥❥❛s ♠ás ❡①t❡✲
r✐♦r❡s✮ ② ♣❛r❛ ❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✭❢r❛♥❥❛s ✐♥t❡r✐♦r❡s✮ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✳

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s s❡ ❤❛❝❡ ♠❛②♦r ❡♥ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♠ás ❡①tr❡♠♦s ❞❡ X ✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱
❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s ❡♥ ❧❛s ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ② ❡♥ ❧❛s ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s s♦♥ ♠❛②♦r❡s ❡♥ ❡st♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ♠ás ❡①tr❡♠♦s✳ ❊st♦
❞❡❜❡ s❡r ✉♥ ♠♦t✐✈♦ ❛ ❛ñ❛❞✐r ❛❧ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛r✐♦ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r ♣❛r❛ ♥♦ ❤❛❝❡r ❡st✐♠❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♥✐ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐♦♥❡s ❢✉❡r❛ ❞❡❧
r❛♥❣♦ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ X ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳
P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡á❜❛♠♦s ❛❧ ❝♦♠✐❡♥③♦ ❞❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ q✉❡ s❡rí❛ ❞❡ ✐♥t❡rés ❡st✐♠❛r ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡
❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ t❡♥❞rá ❛❧❣✉✐❡♥ q✉❡ s❡ s♦♠❡t❛ ❛ ✉♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦ ❞❡ ✽ ❤♦r❛s✳ ❊s♦ ❡s
✉♥❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥✱ ❛sí q✉❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧ ❞❛r❡♠♦s

ŷ8 = 46.82 + 1.60 × 8 = 59.59

② ❝♦♠♦ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪✱

 s   s 
2
ŷx ∓ t1−α/2;n−2 × se 1 (x − x̄)2   1 (8 − 12) 
1+ + = 59.59 ∓ 2.36 × 5.73 1 + + = (45.17, 74.00) .
n SSxx 9 744

P♦r ❡❧ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ ✐♠❛❣✐♥❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❧♦s tr❛❜❛❥❛❞♦r❡s ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ✈❛♥ ❛ ❡st❛r s♦♠❡t✐❞♦s t♦❞♦s ❡❧❧♦s ❛
✉♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✽ ❤♦r❛s✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥
♣❛r❛ s❛❜❡r ❝✉á❧ ✈❛ ❛ s❡r s✉ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ②❛ q✉❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s t❡♥❞rá ✉♥ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡
❞✐st✐♥t♦❀ ❧♦ q✉❡ sí t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❡s q✉❡ ♥♦s ♣❧❛♥t❡❡♠♦s ❝✉á❧ ✈❛ ❛ s❡r ❡❧ ♣♦r❝❡♥t❛❥❡ ♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
❧♦s tr❛❜❛❥❛❞♦r❡s s♦♠❡t✐❞♦s ❛ ✽ ❤♦r❛s ❞❡ ❡①♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❛❧ ❝♦♠♣✉❡st♦✳ ❊st♦ ❡s ✉♥ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ✉♥ ✈❛❧♦r ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦✳ ▲❛ ❡st✐♠❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣r❡❞✐❝❝✐ó♥✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ✺✾✳✺✾✱ ♣❡r♦ ❡❧
✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛ ❛❧ ✾✺ ✪ ❡s
 s   s 
2
ŷx ∓ t1−α/2;n−2 × se 1 (x − x̄)2
 = 59.59 ∓ 2.36 × 5.73 1 (8 − 12) 
+ + = (54.66, 64.52) .
n SSxx 9 744

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✵✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✶✵✳✽✳ ❉✐❛❣♥♦s✐s ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦

❚♦❞♦ ❧♦ r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ s❡ ❤❛ ❜❛s❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝✉♠♣❧✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s
s✉♣✉❡st♦s ❞❡s❝r✐t♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦ ✶✵✳✸✳ ❈♦♠♦ ②❛ ❝♦♠❡♥t❛♠♦s✱ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ t♦❞♦s ♦ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❡st♦s
s✉♣✉❡st♦s ♥♦ s❡ ❞❡♥✱ ❧❛s ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❡①tr❛✐❣❛♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ✐♥❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣♦❞rí❛♥ ♥♦ s❡r ✈á❧✐❞❛s✳
❊s ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ q✉❡ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r ❡st♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❤❡rr❛♠✐❡♥t❛s ❞❡ ❞✐❛❣♥óst✐❝♦✳ ❆q✉í ✈❛♠♦s ❛
✈❡r só❧♦ ❧❛s ♠ás ❜ás✐❝❛s✱ ✈✐♥❝✉❧❛❞❛s ❛❧ ❛♥á❧✐s✐s ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s ② ❛ ❧❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s
❛❥✉st❛❞♦s✳

✶✵✳✽✳✶✳ ◆♦r♠❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s

❊♥tr❡ ❧♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s ❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱

ǫi = yi − ŷi

s✐❣✉❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✳

◆✐ q✉❡ ❞❡❝✐r t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ ❝♦♠♣r♦❜❛r ❡st❛ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❡♥ tr✐✈✐❛❧✿ ❜❛st❛rá ❝♦♥ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s✱ ❛❥✉st❛r❧❡s ✉♥❛
❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ② r❡❛❧✐③❛r ✉♥ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡❧ t❡st ❞❡ ❑♦❧♠♦❣♦r♦✈✲
❙♠✐r♥♦✛✳

✶✵✳✽✳✷✳ ●rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❥✉st❛❞♦s

❊❧ r❡st♦ ❞❡ s✉♣✉❡st♦s s❡ r❡✜❡r❡♥ ❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s✱ ❛ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝❡r♦ ② ❛ s✉ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛✳
❯♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❤❡rr❛♠✐❡♥t❛s ❞✐❛❣♥óst✐❝❛s ♠ás s✐♠♣❧❡s ♣❛r❛ ❡st❛s ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s ❡s ❧❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❢r❡♥t❡
❛ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❥✉st❛❞♦s✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛r ❡♥ ✉♥♦s ❡❥❡s ❝❛rt❡s✐❛♥♦s✿

✶✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡ ❳✱ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ŷi ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠✉❡str❛✳

✷✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡ ❨✱ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s✱ ǫi = yi − ŷi ✳

❍❛❜✐t✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ s❡ ❧❡ ❛ñ❛❞❡ ❛ ❡st❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❧❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♥✉❜❡ ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡✳

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✐r ✈✐❡♥❞♦ ❝ó♠♦ ❞❡❜❡ s❡r ❡st❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❝✉♠♣❧❛♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s✿

✶✳ ❙✐ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❡s ❝❡r♦✱ ❧❛ ♥✉❜❡ ❞❡ ♣✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡❜❡ ❤❛❝❡r♥♦s ♣❡♥s❛r ❡♥ ✉♥❛ r❡❝t❛ ❞❡
r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥ ❤♦r✐③♦♥t❛❧ s✐t✉❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❡r♦✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ s❡❛ ❝✉❛❧ s❡❛ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ŷi ✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s
❡s ❝❡r♦✳
✷✳ ❙✐ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛rs❡ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ♣❛tró♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ❣rá✜❝❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♥✐♥❣ú♥ ❡❢❡❝t♦
❡♥ ❡❧❧❛ q✉❡ ❤❛❣❛ ♣❡♥s❛r ❡♥ ❛❧❣ú♥ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ŷi ② ǫi ✳
✸✳ ❙✐ ❧♦s ❡rr♦r❡s t✐❡♥❡♥ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ✭s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ❞❡ ❤♦♠♦❝❡❞❛st✐❝✐❞❛❞✮✱ ❧❛ ❞✐s♣❡rs✐ó♥
✈❡rt✐❝❛❧ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣✉♥t♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ♥♦ ❞❡❜❡ ✈❛r✐❛r s❡❣ú♥ ✈❛rí❡ ❡❧ ❡❥❡ ❳✳ ❊♥ ❝❛s♦ ❝♦♥tr❛r✐♦✱ s❡ ❤❛❜❧❛ ❞❡
❤❡t❡r♦❝❡❞❛st✐❝✐❞❛❞✳

❯♥❛ ú❧t✐♠❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥✿ s✐ s❡ ❞❛♥ t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❛❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ♠❡♥❝✐♦♥❛r s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡
r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❥✉st❛❞♦s✱ ❡♥t♦♥❝❡s ❡s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧❡✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ s❡ t✐❡♥❡ ❧❛ s❡❣✉r✐❞❛❞✱ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧♦s s✉♣✉❡st♦s
❞❡❧ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ s❡❛♥ ❝✐❡rt♦s✳

✷✵✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

Residuals vs Fitted
5

5
4
0
Residuals
−5
−15 −10

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Fitted values
lm(Porcentaje.Absorbido ~ Tiempo)
❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✽✿ ●rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❥✉st❛❞♦s ✈s r❡s✐❞✉♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ P♦r ú❧t✐♠❛ ✈❡③ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛❜s♦r❝✐ó♥✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✵✳✽ ❛♣❛r❡❝❡ ❡❧
❣rá✜❝♦ ❞❡ r❡s✐❞✉♦s ✈s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❛❥✉st❛❞♦s ② ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r q✉❡ ❛ ♣r✐♠❡r ✈✐st❛ ♣❛r❡❝❡ q✉❡ s❡ ❞❛♥ ❧❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s
r❡q✉❡r✐❞❛s✿

✶✳ ▲♦s ♣✉♥t♦s s❡ s✐tú❛♥ ❡♥ t♦r♥♦ ❛❧ ❡❥❡ Y = 0✱ ✐♥❞✐❝❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s ♣❛r❡❝❡ s❡r ❝❡r♦✳

✷✳ ◆♦ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♥ ♣❛tr♦♥❡s ❡♥ ❧♦s r❡s✐❞✉♦s✳

✸✳ ◆♦ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛ ♠❛②♦r ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ♣❛rt❡s ❞❡❧ ❣rá✜❝♦✳ ❍❛② q✉❡ t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡ s♦♥
♠✉② ♣♦❝♦s ❞❛t♦s ♣❛r❛ s❛❝❛r ❝♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥❡s✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✵✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✷✵✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

 P❛rt❡ ■❱

Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s

✷✵✾
❈❛♣ít✉❧♦ ✶✶

Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s
❚❤❡ ❜❡st ♠❛t❡r✐❛❧ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❛ ❝❛t ✐s ❛♥♦t❤❡r✱ ♦r ♣r❡❢❡r❛❜❧② t❤❡ s❛♠❡✱ ❝❛t✳

◆♦r❜❡rt ❲✐❡♥❡r✱ P❤✐❧♦s♦♣❤② ♦❢ ❙❝✐❡♥❝❡ ✭✶✾✹✺✮ ✭✇✐t❤ ❆✳ ❘♦s❡♥❜❧✉❡t❤✮

❘❡s✉♠❡♥ ✳ ▲♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s s✉♣♦♥❡♥ ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ ♣❛s♦ ❡♥ ❧❛ ✉t✐❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦s ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝♦s ♣❛r❛
❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s r❡❛❧❡s ♥♦ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝♦s✿ ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥
❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✳ ❙❡ ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡♥ ♣r✐♥❝✐♣❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡♥ tér♠✐♥♦s ❞❡ s✉s ♠❡❞✐❛s ② s✉s ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦ s❡
✐♥❝❧✉②❡♥ ❛❞❡♠ás ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ♠ás ❝♦♠✉♥❡s ❞❡ t✐♣♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ② s✉ ❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ s❡
tr❛♥s♠✐t❡♥ ❛ tr❛✈és ❞❡ s✐st❡♠❛s ❧✐♥❡❛❧❡s ✐♥✈❛r✐❛♥t❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✳

P❛❧❛❜r❛s ❝❧❛✈❡ ✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s✱ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥✲
③❛✱ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦s✱ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦s✱ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✱ s✐st❡♠❛s ❧✐♥❡❛❧❡s✱ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❡s♣❡❝tr❛❧ ❞❡
♣♦t❡♥❝✐❛✳

✶✶✳✶✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥

❊♥ ♠✉❝❤♦s ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ❞❡ t✐♣♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❡❧ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ✭♦ ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦✮✳

P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱

❡♥ s✐st❡♠❛s ❞❡ r❡❝♦♥♦❝✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈♦③ ❧❛s ❞❡❝✐s✐♦♥❡s s❡ t♦♠❛♥ s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ❜❛s❡ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ♦♥❞❛ q✉❡ r❡♣r♦❞✉❝❡
❧❛s ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈♦③ ❞❡❧ ✐♥t❡r❧♦❝✉t♦r✱ ♣❡r♦ ❧❛ ❢♦r♠❛ ❡♥ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ✐♥t❡r❧♦❝✉t♦r ❞✐❝❡ ✉♥❛ ♠✐s♠❛
♣❛❧❛❜r❛ s✉❢r❡ ❧✐❣❡r❛s ✈❛r✐❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❝❛❞❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ ❧♦ ❤❛❝❡❀

❡♥ ✉♥ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦❧❛✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❡♥ ✉♥ s❡r✈✐❞♦r ❞❡ t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❝❧✐❡♥t❡s ❡♥ ❡❧

s✐st❡♠❛ ❛ ❧❛ ❡s♣❡r❛ ❞❡ s❡r ❛t❡♥❞✐❞♦s ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐♦♥❛ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ② ❡stá s✉❥❡t♦ ❛ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s t❛❧❡s q✉❡ s✉
❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❡s ✐♠♣r❡❞❡❝✐❜❧❡ ❀

❡♥ ✉♥ s✐st❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝♦✱ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❞❡ ❡♥tr❛❞❛ ❡s ✉♥❛ ♦♥❞❛ q✉❡ ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐♦♥❛ ❝♦♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦
② q✉❡ s❡ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝❡ ❡♥ ✉♥ ❝❛♥❛❧ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡s ❝♦♥t❛♠✐♥❛❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♥ r✉✐❞♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ❞❡ t❛❧ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ❡s
✐♠♣♦s✐❜❧❡ s❡♣❛r❛r ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❡❧ ♠❡♥s❛❥❡ ♦r✐❣✐♥❛❧ ❝♦♥ ❛❜s♦❧✉t❛ ❝❡rt❡③❛✳

✳✳✳

✷✶✶
 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❉❡s❞❡ ✉♥ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝♦✱ t♦❞♦s ❡st♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s t✐❡♥❡♥ ❡♥ ❝♦♠ú♥ q✉❡ ❡❧ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ✈✐st♦
❝♦♠♦ ✉♥❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ ♣❡r♦ q✉❡ s♦♥ ❞❡s❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛s ❛ ♣r✐♦r✐✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥ ❞❡❧
❛③❛r✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ ❝♦♥t❡①t♦ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡✜♥✐r ❡❧ ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳ ◆✉❡str♦ ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❡♥ ❝❛♣ít✉❧♦s
❛♥t❡r✐♦r❡s ❞❡❞✐❝❛❞♦s ❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ② ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s✱ ❡s ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❡s❞❡ ✉♥ ♣✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❡❧
❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦✱ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛♥❞♦ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s ❞❡ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✱ ♠❡❞✐❞❛s s♦❜r❡ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❡t❝✳

✶✶✳✶✳✶✳ ❉❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥

❈♦♥s✐❞❡r❡♠♦s ✉♥ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ s♦❜r❡ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ Ω. ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦
♣♦s✐❜❧❡✱ A, t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ r❡❛❧ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ r❡❛❧✱ x (t, A)✱ ❝♦♥
t ∈ I ⊂ R✳ ❍❛❜✐t✉❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ t r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❛❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ ♣❡r♦ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣✉❡❞❡ r❡❢❡r✐rs❡ ❛ ♦tr❛s ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞❡s ❢ís✐❝❛s✳
P❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ A ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛r ❛ x (t, A) r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ♦ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳

❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ t0 ∈ I ✱ X (t, ·) ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳ P✉❡s ❜✐❡♥✱ ❛❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦

{X (t, A) : t ∈ I, A ∈ Ω}

❧♦ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛♠♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ✭❡♥ ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡ ♣✳❛✳✮ ♦ ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦✳

❙✐ r❡❝♦r❞❛♠♦s ❧❛s ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ② ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r ❡♥ q✉é s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❡stá♥
r❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❞♦s ❧♦s ❝♦♥❝❡♣t♦s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡✱ ✈❡❝t♦r ② ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳ ❈♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ s✐ Ω ❡s ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱
✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❡s ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
X:Ω→R

q✉❡ ❛ ❝❛❞❛ s✉❝❡s♦ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ❧❡ ❛s✐❣♥❛ ✉♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ r❡❛❧✳ P♦r s✉ ♣❛rt❡✱ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❡s ❜ás✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥❛
❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
X : Ω → RN

q✉❡ ❛ ❝❛❞❛ s✉❝❡s♦ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ❧❡ ❛s✐❣♥❛ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r r❡❛❧✳ ❋✐♥❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❡s ❜ás✐❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ✉♥❛
❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
X : Ω → {❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s r❡❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✈❜❧❡ r❡❛❧}

q✉❡ ❛ ❝❛❞❛ s✉❝❡s♦ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ❧❡ ❛s✐❣♥❛ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ r❡❛❧✳

❉❡ ❝❛r❛ ❛ ❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❞❡ ❛❤♦r❛ ❡♥ ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡ ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳✱ ❧♦ ♥♦t❛r❡♠♦s ♥♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❝♦♠♦ X (t)✱ ♦❜✈✐❛♥❞♦
❛sí ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❤❛❝❡ r❡❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❛❧ ❡❧❡♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡❧ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❛❧ q✉❡ ✈❛ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧✳
❊st❡ ❝♦♥✈❡♥✐♦ ❡s ❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ q✉❡ ♥♦s ❧❧❡✈❛ ❛ ❡s❝r✐❜✐r X r❡✜r✐é♥❞♦♥♦s ❛ ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ♦ ❛ ✉♥ ✈❡❝t♦r✳

✶✶✳✶✳✷✳ ❚✐♣♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s

❊❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❡s ✉♥❛ ♠❛❣♥✐t✉❞ ❢ís✐❝❛ ✐♥trí♥s❡❝❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ t♦♠❛r ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧♦s
♥ú♠❡r♦s r❡❛❧❡s✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛r ❧❛s ❝♦s❛s ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✳ P♦r ❡s♦✱
❡♥ ❡❧ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ✭♥♦ só❧♦ ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦s✮ ❡s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ♣r❡❣✉♥t❛rs❡ s✐ ❡❧ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦ q✉❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛
❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ♦ só❧♦ ❡♥ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ❝♦♥❝r❡t♦s ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✳

✷✶✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✶✿ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

❉❛❞♦ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ Ω ② ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦ ❡♥ é❧✱

{X (t, A) : t ∈ I, A ∈ Ω} ,

s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦ s✐ I ❡s ✉♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ♥✉♠❡r❛❜❧❡✳

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦ s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❡s❝r✐❜✐r Xn ♦ X [n] r❡✜r✐é♥❞♦♥♦s ❛ ❧❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥ ♠ás ❣❡♥❡r❛❧
X (n)✳ P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ I ♥♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡s ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡♥t❡r♦s ♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡♥t❡r♦s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s✱
❛✉♥q✉❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♣✉❡❞❡ s❡r ✉♥ s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ést♦s✳
❊♥ ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ❧✐❜r♦s ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦ t❛♠❜✐é♥ s♦♥ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞♦s s❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ✳

❉❛❞♦ ✉♥ ❡s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧ Ω ② ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦ ❡♥ é❧✱

{X (t, A) : t ∈ I, A ∈ Ω} ,

s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦ s✐ I ❡s ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦✳

❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✱ I ❡s ♥♦r♠❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s r❡❛❧❡s ♣♦s✐t✐✈♦s ♦ ✉♥ s✉❜❝♦♥✲
❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ést♦s✳
❙✐ ♥♦s ❞❛♠♦s ❝✉❡♥t❛✱ ❡st❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❝❧❛s✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣✳❛✳ ❧❛ ❤❡♠♦s ❤❡❝❤♦ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ❝❛rá❝t❡r ❞✐s❝r❡t♦
♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❞❡❧ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ I ✳ ❊①✐st❡ ♦tr❛ ❝❧❛s✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ❡♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝ó♠♦ s♦♥ ❧❛s
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s ♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ❛♠❜♦s t✐♣♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s✱ ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
❞✐s❝r❡t❛s ♦ ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✱ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ❡st✉❞✐❛rs❡ ❝❛s✐ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛✳ P♦r ❡❧❧♦ só❧♦ ❞✐st✐♥✲

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✶✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✷✿ ❉✐st✐♥t❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✸✿ ❉✐st✐♥t❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✳

❣✉✐r❡♠♦s ♣✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s ② ♣✳❛✳ ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s s✐ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦✳ ❊♥ ❡st❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦
♥♦s r❡✜r❛♠♦s ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ✭s✐ ❡❧ ♣✳❛✳ ❡s ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞✐s❝r❡t❛s✮ ♦ ❛ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ✭s✐ ❡❧ ♣✳❛✳ ❡s
❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛s✮✱ ❤❛❜❧❛r❡♠♦s ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧ ❞❡ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ ξ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❡♥ (−1, 1)✳ ❉❡✜♥✐♠♦s ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦
X (t, ξ) ❝♦♠♦
X (t, ξ) = ξ cos (2πt) .

❙✉s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s s♦♥ ♦♥❞❛s s✐♥✉s♦✐❞❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❛♠♣❧✐t✉❞ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❡♥ (−1, 1) ✭❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✷✮.

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ θ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❡♥ (−π, π)✳ ❉❡✜♥✐♠♦s ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦
X (t, π) ❝♦♠♦
X (t, π) = cos (2πt + θ) .

❙✉s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s s♦♥ ✈❡rs✐♦♥❡s ❞❡s♣❧❛③❛❞❛s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ cos (2πt) ✭❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✸✮✳

✷✶✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

✶✶✳✷✳ ❉❡s❝r✐♣❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦

✶✶✳✷✳✶✳ ❉❡s❝r✐♣❝✐ó♥ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❧t✐❞✐♠❡♥s✐♦♥❛❧❡s

❊♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ♣❛r❛ ❡s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛r ❝ó♠♦ ❡s ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❞❡ ❢♦r♠❛ ♣r❡❝✐s❛ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r s✉❜❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ X (t) ❡s ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳✱ ❡s ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦
❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ✈❡❝t♦r ❞❡❧ t✐♣♦

(X (t1 ) , ..., X (tk )) ,

♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ k > 0, (t1 , ..., tk ) ⊂ I ✱ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

FX(t1 ),...,X(tk ) (x1 , ..., xk )

♦ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ✭♦ ♠❛s❛✮ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛

fX(t1 ),...,X(tk ) (x1 , ..., xk ) .

❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ ♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡s ❢á❝✐❧ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r t♦❞❛s ❧❛s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡s ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❞❡
✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✳ P♦r ❡❧❧♦✱ ♣❛r❛ t❡♥❡r ✉♥❛ ❞❡s❝r✐♣❝✐ó♥ ♠ás s❡♥❝✐❧❧❛ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ q✉❡ ✐♥❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛ ❞❡❧
♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ s❡ ❛❝✉❞❡ ❛ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s✱ ❛ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ② ❛ ❧❛s ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s ❞❡ s✉s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✳

✶✶✳✷✳✷✳ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ② ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛

❙❡❛ ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ X (t)✳ ❙❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♦ s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ X (t) ❝♦♠♦
ˆ ∞
X̄ (t) = x̄ (t) = E [X (t)] = xfX(t) (x) dx,
−∞

♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ t ∈ I.

◆ót❡s❡ q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ s✉ ♥♦♠❜r❡ ✐♥❞✐❝❛✱ s❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥íst✐❝❛✳ ◆♦ t✐❡♥❡ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ❝♦♠♣♦♥❡♥t❡
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✳ ◆ót❡s❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ q✉❡ ❛✉♥q✉❡ s❡ ❡stá ❡s❝r✐❜✐❡♥❞♦ ❡❧ sí♠❜♦❧♦ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❡st❛r r❡✜r✐é♥❞♦♥♦s
❛ ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ s❡ tr❛t❛rí❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ s✉♠❛✳

❙❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♦ s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ X (t) ❝♦♠♦

CX (t, s) = Cov [X (t) , X (s)] = E [(X (t) − mX (t)) (X (s) − mX (s))]

ˆ ∞ˆ ∞
= (x1 − x̄ (t)) (x2 − x̄ (s)) fX(t),X(s) (x1 , x2 ) dx2 dx1
−∞ −∞

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✶✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❙❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♦ s✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ X (t) ❝♦♠♦

ˆ ∞ ˆ ∞
RX (t, s) = E [X (t) · X (s)] = x1 x2 fX(t),X(s) (x1 , x2 ) dx2 dx1
−∞ −∞

◆ót❡s❡✱ ❞❡ ❝❛r❛ ❛❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦✱ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❛♠❜❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s t❛♥ só❧♦ ❡s ❡❧ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s✶ ✳

CX (t, s) = RX (t, s) − mX (t) · mX (s) .

❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ s✐ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡stá ❝❡♥tr❛❞♦ ❡♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❝❡r♦✱ ❛♠❜❛s
❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦✐♥❝✐❞❡♥✳
P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ♣✉❡❞❡ ♦❜t❡♥❡rs❡ ❝♦♠♦

V ar (X (t)) = CX (t, t) ✳

▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ CX (t, s) ❡s ❧❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❛ ✉♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛
❞❡ ❧❛ ✐♥t❡r❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✈✳❛✳ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ X (t) ② X (s)✱ q✉❡ ❞✐st❛♥ τ = s − t ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡
t✐❡♠♣♦✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ②❛ s❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ❛♥❛❧✐③❛r ❡st❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ❡❧ ❝♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
❧✐♥❡❛❧
CX (t, s)
ρX (t, s) = p .
CX (t, t) CX (s, s)
❆♣❛r❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❡s ❡s♣❡r❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ t❛♥t♦ ♠ás rá♣✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝❛♠❜✐❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ ♠ás ❞❡❝r❡③❝❛ ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
❝♦♥❢♦r♠❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛ τ ✱ ❛✉♥q✉❡ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ♣❡r✐ó❞✐❝♦s ♥♦ ❝✉♠♣❧❡♥ ❡s❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞✳
❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ t❡♦rí❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❛❧❡t❛t♦r✐❛✱ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞✐st✐♥❣✉✐r
✉♥❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❝✉②♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❝❛♠❜✐❛♥ ♠✉② rá♣✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❢r❡♥t❡ ❛ ✉♥❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♠ás s✉❛✈❡s✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ♣r✐♠❡r
❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ② ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡♥ ✐♥st❛♥t❡s t ② t + τ ❞❡❝r❡❝❡rá♥ ❧❡♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥ τ ✱
♠✐❡♥tr❛s q✉❡ ❡♥ ❡❧ s❡❣✉♥❞♦✱ ❡s❡ ❞❡s❝❡♥s♦ s❡rá ♠✉❝❤♦ ♠ás rá♣✐❞♦✳ ❊♥ ♦tr❛s ♣❛❧❛❜r❛s✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
✭♦ ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✮ ❡s ❛❧t❛✱ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✐♥st❛♥t❡s ❝❡r❝❛♥♦s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ t❡♥❞r❡♠♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡r s✐♠✐❧❛r❡s✱ ♣❡r♦ ❝✉❛♥❞♦
❡s ❜❛❥❛✱ ♣♦❞r❡♠♦s t❡♥❡r ❢✉❡rt❡s ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛s ❡♥tr❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❝❡r❝❛♥♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✳
▲❛ ❣r❛♥ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ❡st❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛s ❛ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ✭♦ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✮✱
❡s ♣♦r t❛♥t♦ q✉❡ ❛♣♦rt❛♥ t♦❞❛ ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧ q✉❡ ❡①✐st❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✈✳❛✳ ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛
❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✳ ❈♦♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s ❞✐❝❤♦✱ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛✱ r❡s✉❧t❛ ❡①tr❡♠❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❝❛❞♦ ❝♦♥♦❝❡r ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛♠❡♥t❡
❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ②✱ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❡st♦ ♦❝✉rr❡✱ ♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❡s s❡♥❝✐❧❧♦ ✉t✐❧✐③❛r ❧❛s té❝♥✐❝❛s ❞❡❧ ❝á❧❝✉❧♦
❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞❡s ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ tr❛t❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❡st♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s✳ ❙✐♥ ❡♠❜❛r❣♦✱ t❛♥ só❧♦ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ✐♥❢♦r♠❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r
❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ♦❢r❡❝❡rs❡ r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦s ♠✉② r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s ❛❝❡r❝❛ ❞❡ ❧♦s
♣r♦❝❡s♦s✱ t❛❧ ② ❝♦♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s ✈✐st♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ② ✈❡❝t♦r❡s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ▲❛ s❡ñ❛❧ r❡❝✐❜✐❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♥ r❡❝❡♣t♦r ❆▼ ❞❡ r❛❞✐♦ ❡s ✉♥❛ s❡ñ❛❧ s✐♥✉s♦✐❞❛❧ ❝♦♥ ❢❛s❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ❞❛❞❛
♣♦r X (t) = A · cos (2πfc t + Ξ) , ❞♦♥❞❡ A ② fc s♦♥ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡s ② Ξ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❡♥ (−π, π) .

✶ ❊st❛ ❢ór♠✉❧❛ ❡s ❧❛ ♠✐s♠❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ✈❡í❛♠♦s ❧❛ ❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s✱ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛❜❧❡ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ♠❡♥♦s
❡❧ ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s✳

✷✶✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱
π
1 A
ˆ
ξ=π
E [X (t)] = A cos (2πfc t + ξ) dξ = [sin (2πfc t + ξ)]ξ=−π
−π 2π 2π

A
= (sin (2πfc t) cos (π) + cos (2πfc t) sin (π) − sin (2πfc t) cos (−π) − cos (2πfc t) sin (−π))
2π
A
= [0 + 0] = 0.
2π

RX (t, t + τ ) = E [X (t + τ ) X (t)] = E A2 cos (2πfc t + 2πfc τ + Ξ) cos (2πfc t + Ξ)

 

A2 A2
= E [cos (4πfc t + 2πfc τ + 2Ξ)] + E [cos (2πfc τ )]
2 2

π
A2 1 A2
ˆ
= cos (4πfc t + 2πfc τ + 2ξ) dξ + cos (2πfc τ )
2 −π 2π 2
A2 A2 A2
= ·0+ cos (2πfc τ ) = cos (2πfc τ ) .
2 2 2

P♦r t❛♥t♦✱
A2
CX (t, t + τ ) = RX (t, t + τ ) − mX (t) mX (t + τ ) = cos (2πfc τ ) .
2

✶✶✳✸✳ ❚✐♣♦s ♠ás ❝♦♠✉♥❡s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s

❊♥ ❡st❡ ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦ ❞❡✜♥✐♠♦s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s q✉❡ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r ✈❡r✐✜❝❛❞❛s ♣♦r ❛❧❣✉♥♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ② q✉❡ ❧❡s
❝♦♥✜❡r❡♥ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛s ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❡s ❡♥ ❧❛s ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ♣rá❝t✐❝❛s✳

✶✶✳✸✳✶✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s

❙❡❛ ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ X (t)✳ ❙✐ ♣❛r❛ ❝❛❞❛ n ✐♥st❛♥t❡s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ t1 , ..., tn , ❧❛s ✈✳❛✳ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ ❡s♦s ✐♥st❛♥t❡s s♦♥
✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱

fX(t1 ),...,X(tn ) (x1 , ..., xn ) = fX(t1 ) (x1 ) · ... · fX(tn ) (xn ) ,

s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✳

▲❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❡s ❧❛ ❞❡ ❛q✉❡❧❧♦s ❡♥ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ q✉❡ ❡s ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥
✉♥ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛❞♦ ♥♦ t✐❡♥❡ ♥❛❞❛ q✉❡ ✈❡r ❝♦♥ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♦tr♦ ✐♥st❛♥t❡✳ ❉❡s❞❡ ✉♥ ♣✉♥t♦
❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❢ís✐❝♦ ❡st♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s s♦♥ ♠✉② ❝❛ót✐❝♦s ② s❡ ❛s♦❝✐❛♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ❛ r✉✐❞♦s q✉❡ ♥♦ ❣✉❛r❞❛♥ ❡♥ ✉♥
♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ❞❛❞♦ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥s✐❣♦ ♠✐s♠♦s ❡♥ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s ❛❞②❛❝❡♥t❡s✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✶✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

−1

−2

−3

−4
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✹✿ ❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❢♦r♠❛❞♦ ♣♦r ✈✳❛ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛s ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝❡r♦ ②
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ✉♥♦✳

✶✶✳✸✳✷✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❝♦♥ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s

❙❡❛ ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ X (t)✳ ❙❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ t✐❡♥❡ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s s✐ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝♦♥❥✉♥t♦ ❞❡ N ✈✳❛✳ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱
X (t1 ) , X (t2 ) , ..., X (tN )✱ ❝♦♥ t1 < t2 < ... < tN s♦♥ t❛❧❡s q✉❡ ❧♦s ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦s

X (t1 ) , X (t2 ) − X (t1 ) , ..., X (tN ) − X (tN −1 )

s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❡♥tr❡ sí✳

✶✶✳✸✳✸✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈

◆♦ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s ♣❡r❞❡r ❞❡ ✈✐st❛ ❧❛ ❝♦♠♣❧❡❥✐❞❛❞ q✉❡ ✐♠♣❧✐❝❛ ❧❛ ❞❡s❝r✐♣❝✐ó♥ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✳
P❡♥s❡♠♦s ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ q✉❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❤❛ ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐♦♥❛❞♦ ❤❛st❛ ✉♥ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ t ② s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❡s❛ ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐ó♥❀ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱
s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❡❧ ✈❛❧♦r X (s) = xs ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ s ≤ t✳ ❙✐ s❡ ❞❡s❡❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❧❛ ♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ ✉♥ ✐♥st❛♥t❡
♣♦st❡r✐♦r ❛ t✱ t + ∆✱ s❡rí❛ ♥❡❝❡s❛r✐♦ ❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛

X (t + ∆) | {X (s) = xs ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ s ≤ t} .

❊st♦✱ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❡s ❜❛st❛♥t❡ ❝♦♠♣❧❡❥♦✳

❆❞❡♠ás✱ ➽t✐❡♥❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❧❛ ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ t + ∆ s❡ ✈❡❛ ❛❢❡❝t❛❞❛ ♣♦r t♦❞❛
❧❛ ❤✐st♦r✐❛ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ ❞❡s❞❡ ❡❧ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ✐♥✐❝✐❛❧ s = 0 ❤❛st❛ ❡❧ ú❧t✐♠♦ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❡s❛ ❤✐st♦r✐❛ s = t❄ P❛r❡❝❡
❧ó❣✐❝♦ ♣❡♥s❛r q✉❡ ❧❛ ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ t❡♥❣❛ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❧❛ ❤✐st♦r✐❛ ♠ás r❡❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ést❡✱ ♣❡r♦ ♥♦ t♦❞❛
❧❛ ❤✐st♦r✐❛✳ ❊st❛ ❤✐♣♦t❡s✐s s❡ ✈❡ ❛✈❛❧❛❞❛ ♣♦r ❧♦s ♣❡r✜❧❡s ♠ás ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧❡s ❞❡ ❧❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✱
❞♦♥❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ s✉❡❧❡ ❞❡❝r❡❝❡r ❡♥ ❧❛ ♠❛②♦rí❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♦❝❛s✐♦♥❡s
❝♦♥❢♦r♠❡ ❛✉♠❡♥t❛ ❧❛ ❞✐st❛♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s ♠✐s♠❛s✳
▲♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈ s♦♥ ✉♥ ❝❛s♦ ❞♦♥❞❡ ❡st♦ ♦❝✉rr❡✳ ❙❡ tr❛t❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s q✉❡ ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐♦♥❛♥ ❞❡ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡
❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ♦❧✈✐❞❛♥ t♦❞♦ s✉ ♣❛s❛❞♦ ② só❧♦ t✐❡♥❡♥ ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ♣❛r❛ s✉ ❡✈♦❧✉❝✐ó♥ ❢✉t✉r❛ ❡❧ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ♠ás

✷✶✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

r❡❝✐❡♥t❡✱ ♠ás ❛❝t✉❛❧✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ s❡♥t✐❞♦✿

❯♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ X (t) s❡ ❞✐❝❡ ♠❛r❦♦✈✐❛♥♦ ♦ ❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈ s✐ ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛ t1 < ... < tn < tn+1 ✐♥st❛♥t❡s
❝♦♥s❡❝✉t✐✈♦s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ s❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛

fX(tn+1 )|X(t1 )=x1 ,...,X(tn )=xn (xn+1 ) = fX(tn+1 )|X(tn )=xn (xn+1 ) .

❊st❛ ❞❡✜♥✐❝✐ó♥ s❡ s✉❡❧❡ ❡♥✉♥❝✐❛r ❝♦❧♦q✉✐❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❞✐❝✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈ ❡s ❛q✉❡❧ ❝✉②♦ ❢✉t✉r♦ ♥♦
❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡❧ ♣❛s❛❞♦ s✐♥♦ t❛♥ só❧♦ ❞❡❧ ♣r❡s❡♥t❡✳

✶✶✳✸✳✹✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦s

❯♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ♠ás ✉s✉❛❧❡s ❡♥ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❡st♦❝ást✐❝♦s ❝♦♥s✐st❡ ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❝✐❡rt❛ ❡st❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❡♥ s✉s
♠❡❞✐❛s ② ❡♥ s✉s ❝♦✈❛r❛♥③❛s✱ ❡♥ ❡❧ s❡♥t✐❞♦ ❡♥ q✉❡ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥✳

X (t) ❡s ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦ s✐

mX (t) ❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ t ②
C (t, s) ✭♦ R (t, s)✮ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ t❛♥ só❧♦ ❞❡ s − t✱ ❡♥ ❝✉②♦ ❝❛s♦ s❡ ♥♦t❛ C (s − t) ✭ó R (s − t)✮✳

❊s ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❞❡st❛❝❛r q✉❡ ❧❛ ♣r✐♠❡r❛ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❡s ❡s ✐rr❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡✱ ②❛ q✉❡ s✐❡♠♣r❡ s❡ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❝❡♥tr❛r ❡♥
♠❡❞✐❛ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ♣❛r❛ q✉❡ ést❛ s❡❛ ❝❡r♦✱ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❡♥ ❧❛ ♣rá❝t✐❝❛ ❡s ✐♥❞✐❢❡r❡♥t❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦
X (t) ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ µX (t) q✉❡ ❡st✉❞✐❛r ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ Y (t) = X (t) − µX (t)✱ ❝♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝❡r♦✳
▲❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ♠ás ❡①✐❣❡♥t❡ ② r❡❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❡s ❧❛ s❡❣✉♥❞❛✳ ❱✐❡♥❡ ❛ ❞❡❝✐r q✉❡ ❧❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s
❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ só❧♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐st❛♥❝✐❛ ❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ q✉❡ ❧❛s s❡♣❛r❛✳

◆♦t❛✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❤❛❝❡r ✉♥❛ ♣✉♥t✉❛❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ♠✉② ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ r❡s♣❡❝t♦ ❛ ❧❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥ q✉❡ ❡♠♣❧❡❛r❡♠♦s ❡♥
❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡✳ ❆❝❛❜❛♠♦s ❞❡ ✈❡r q✉❡ s✐ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦✱ s✉s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛
② ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ C (s, t) ② R (s, t) ♥♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ s ② ❞❡ t✱ s✐♥♦ t❛♥ só❧♦ ❞❡ t − s✳ P♦r
❡s♦ ✐♥tr♦❞✉❝✐♠♦s ❧❛ ♥♦t❛❝✐ó♥

C (t, s) ≡ C (s − t)
R (t, s) = R (s − t) .

P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱ ➽q✉é q✉❡r❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r s✐ ❡s❝r✐❜✐♠♦s ❞✐r❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ C (τ ) ♦ R (τ )❄ ◗✉❡ t❡♥❡♠♦s ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❞é❜✐❧✲
♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦ ② q✉❡ ❤❛❜❧❛♠♦s ❞❡

C (τ ) = C (t, t + τ )
R (τ ) = R (t, t + τ ) .

❯♥❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛ ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❛s♦❝✐❛❞❛ ❛ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦ ❡s ❧❛ ♣♦t❡♥❝✐❛

h ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦✱ ❞❡✜♥✐✲
i
❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡❧ ❝✉❛❞r❛❞♦ ❞❡ ést❡ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ t, ❡s ❞❡❝✐r RX (0) = E |X (t)|2 . ▼ás ❛❞❡❧❛♥t❡
♦❜s❡r✈❛r❡♠♦s ❝♦♥ ❞❡t❡♥✐♠✐❡♥t♦ ❡st❛ ♠❡❞✐❞❛✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✶✾

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❧❛ ♣❡❝✉❧✐❛r✐❞❛❞ q✉❡ ❞❡✜♥❡ ❛ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦s ❧❡ ❝♦♥✜❡r❡ ❛ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥
❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ② ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❞♦s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡s✿ s❡❛ X (t) ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦ ✭❞é❜✐❧✮✳
❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ s✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s RX (τ ) = E [X (t) X (t + τ )] ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ t, s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ② ♣♦r CX (τ ) ❛
s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✿

✶✳ ❆♠❜❛s s♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♣❛r❡s✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ RX (−τ ) = RX (τ ) ② CX (−τ ) = CX (τ )✳

✷✳ |RX (τ )| ≤ RX (0) ② |CX (τ )| ≤ CX (0) = σ 2 ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ τ.

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❡❧ ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦ ❞❡❧ ♦s❝✐❧❛❞♦r ✈✐♠♦s q✉❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ r❡❝✐❜✐❞❛ ♣♦r ✉♥ r❡❝❡♣t♦r ❆▼ ❞❡ r❛❞✐♦ ❡s ✉♥❛
s❡ñ❛❧ s✐♥✉s♦✐❞❛❧ ❝♦♥ ❢❛s❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r X (t) = A · cos (2πfc t + Ξ) , ❞♦♥❞❡ A ② fc s♦♥ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡s ②
Ξ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈✳❛✳ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡ ❡♥ (−π, π) t✐❡♥❡ ♣♦r ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛

E [X (t)] = 0

② ♣♦r ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥

A2
RX (t, t + τ ) = cos (2πfc τ ) .
2

❉❡ ❡st❛ ❢♦r♠❛✱ ♣♦❞❡♠♦s ✈❡r q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❯♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ❡s ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛

C (m, n) = mı́n (m, n) p (1 − p) ,

q✉❡ ♥♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ só❧♦ ❞❡ m − n✳ P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦ ♥♦ ❡s ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦ ❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✱ Xn ✱ ❝♦♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝❡r♦ ②
✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ❡ ✐❣✉❛❧ ❛ σ 2 ✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r t❛♠❜✐é♥ ♦tr♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❡♥ ❝❛❞❛ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ❞❡
t✐❡♠♣♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ X ❡♥ ❡s❡ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ② ❡❧ ❛♥t❡r✐♦r✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱

Xn + Xn−1
Yn = .
2

❊♥ ♣r✐♠❡r ❧✉❣❛r✱ ❞❛❞♦ q✉❡ E [Xn ] = 0 ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ n✱ ❧♦ ♠✐s♠♦ ♦❝✉rr❡ ❝♦♥ Yn ✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱
 
Xn + Xn−1
E [Yn ] = E = 0.
2

✷✷✵ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱

CY (n, n + m) = RY (n, n + m) − 0 = E [Y (n) Y (n + m)]

 
Xn + Xn−1 Xn+m + Xn+m−1
=E
2 2
1
= E [(Xn + Xn−1 ) (Xn+m + Xn+m−1 )]
4
1
= (E [Xn Xn+m ] + E [Xn Xn+m−1 ] + E [Xn−1 Xn+m ] + E [Xn−1 Xn+m−1 ])
4

❆❤♦r❛ ❞❡❜❡♠♦s t❡♥❡r ❡♥ ❝✉❡♥t❛ q✉❡


0 s✐ n 6= m
CX (n, m) = RX (n, m) = ,
σ 2 s✐ n=m

②❛ q✉❡ Xn ❡s ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡✳ P♦r ❧♦ t❛♥t♦✱


1
σ2 + 0 + 0 + σ2




 4 s✐ m=0


 1 0 + σ 2 + 0 + 0


s✐ m=1
CY (n, n + m) = 4
1
0 + 0 + σ2 + 0




 4 s✐ m = −1


0

❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

1 2
 2 σ s✐ m = 0



= 14 σ 2 s✐ m = ±1


0

❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

P♦❞❡♠♦s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ Yn t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❡s ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦✱ ♣♦rq✉❡ s✉ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❡s
❝♦♥st❛♥t❡ ✭❝❡r♦✮ ② CY (n, n + m) ♥♦ ❞❡♣❡♥❞❡ ❞❡ n s✐♥♦ t❛♥ só❧♦ ❞❡ m✳

✶✶✳✸✳✺✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❡r❣ó❞✐❝♦s

❙✐ ♥♦s ❞❛♠♦s ❝✉❡♥t❛✱ ❡st❛♠♦s ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐❡♥❞♦ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s✱ ♣r✐♥✲
❝✐♣❛❧♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ❞❡ s✉s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ② ❞❡ s✉s ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❝❡♥tr❛r♥♦s ❡♥
♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦s✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧♦s ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s ♠ás r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡s s❡rí❛♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱

ˆ ∞
E [X (t)] = mX (t) = mX = xfX(t) (x) dx
−∞

② ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ❞♦s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s q✉❡ ❞✐st❡♥ τ ✉♥✐❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦✱

ˆ ∞
RX (τ ) = E [X (t) X (t + τ )] = x1 x2 fX(t)X(t+τ ) (x1 , x2 ) dx1 dx2 .
−∞

❍❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛ q✉✐③á ♥♦ ❧♦ ❤❛❜í❛♠♦s ♣❡♥s❛❞♦✱ ♣❡r♦ ♠ás ❛❧❧á ❞❡ ❧♦s tí♣✐❝♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s✱ ➽❝ó♠♦ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s tr❛t❛r ❞❡
❝❛❧❝✉❧❛r ♦ ❡st✐♠❛r ❛❧ ♠❡♥♦s ❡st❛s ❝❛♥t✐❞❛❞❡s❄ ❙✐ ❛♣❧✐❝❛♠♦s ❧♦ q✉❡ ❤❡♠♦s ❛♣r❡♥❞✐❞♦ ❤❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛✱ ❡st✐♠❛rí❛♠♦s✱
♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ♣❡r♦ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧❧♦ ♥❡❝❡s✐t❛rí❛♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♠✉❡str❛ ♠✉② ❣r❛♥❞❡ ❞❡

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✷✶

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ ② ❡s♦ ♥♦ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ♦❝✉rr❡✳ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ ♥♦ ❡s ♥❛❞❛ r❛r❛ ❧❛ s✐t✉❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥ ❧❛ q✉❡✱
❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ só❧♦ ❡s ♣♦s✐❜❧❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛r ✉♥❛ ú♥✐❝❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✳

❆❤♦r❛ ❜✐❡♥✱ ❞❛❞❛ ✉♥❛ ú♥✐❝❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ x (t)✱ ❡♥ ❡s❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❤❛② ♠✉❝❤♦s ❞❛t♦s✱ t❛♥t♦s
❝♦♠♦ ✐♥st❛♥t❡s ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ t ❤❛②❛♠♦s s✐❞♦ ❝❛♣❛❝❡s ❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛r✳ ➽◆♦ ♣♦❞rí❛ ♦❝✉rr✐r q✉❡ ✉t✐❧✐③ár❛♠♦s t♦❞♦s ❡s♦s
❞❛t♦s q✉❡ ❤❛② ❡♥ x (t)♣❛r❛ ❡st✐♠❛r ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s ② ❧❛s ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s❄ P♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ s✐ t❡♥❡♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛ ❧❛
s❡ñ❛❧ x (t) ❡♥ ✉♥ ♠♦♥tó♥ ❞❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s t1 , ...tn ✱ ➽q✉é t❡♥❞rá q✉❡ ✈❡r

x (t1 ) + ...x (tn )

n

❝♦♥ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ mX ❄ ❉❡ ❤❡❝❤♦✱ s✐ n ❡s ♠✉② ❣r❛♥❞❡ ② ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞❡ ❛ ✉♥ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❝✐ó♥
[−T, T ]✱ t❡♥❞rí❛♠♦s q✉❡
T
x (t1 ) + ... + x (tn ) 1
ˆ
≃ x (t) dt.
n 2T −T

❆❤♦r❛ ♥♦ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧ s♦❜r❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ x ✭✐♥t❡❣r❛❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ✮ s✐♥♦ s♦❜r❡ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✳
❊♥ ❡❧ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ♣❛s❛rí❛ ✐❣✉❛❧✱ t❡♥❞rí❛♠♦s q✉❡ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛r ✉♥ ♠♦♥tó♥ ❞❡ ♣❛r❡s ❞❡
✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❡♥ ❧♦s ✐♥st❛♥t❡s t1 , ..., tn ② t1 + τ, ..., tn + τ ❡♥ ❡❧ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ [−T, T ] ② ❝♦♥ ❡❧❧♦s ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s
❡st✐♠❛r
T
1 x (t1 ) x (t1 + τ ) + ... + x (tn ) x (tn + τ )
ˆ
x (t) x (t + τ ) dt ≃ .
2T −T n
▲♦ q✉❡ ♥♦ s❛❜❡♠♦s✱ ❡♥ ❣❡♥❡r❛❧✱ ❡s s✐ ❡s❛ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧ t✐❡♥❡ ❛❧❣♦ q✉❡ ✈❡r ❝♦♥ RX (τ )✱ q✉❡ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✐♥t❡❣r❛❧ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳

P✉❡s ❜✐❡♥✱ s❡ ❞✐❝❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦ ❡s ❡r❣ó❞✐❝♦ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ❧❛s ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s q✉❡ ❡♥tr❛ñ❛♥ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❡s♣❡✲
r❛❞♦s ❛ ❧♦ ❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐♦♥❡s ✭✐♥t❡❣r❛❧❡s ♦ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦s ❡st❛❞íst✐❝♦s ✮ ♣✉❡❞❡♥ ♦❜t❡♥❡rs❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r
❞❡ ✉♥❛ s♦❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ x (t)✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ q✉❡ ✉♥❛ s♦❧❛ r❡❛❧✐③❛❝✐ó♥ ❡s r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛t✐✈❛ ❞❡ t♦❞♦ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✳
▼ás ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ s❡rá ❡r❣ó❞✐❝♦ ❡♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② ❡♥ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ s✐

T
1
ˆ
limT →∞ x (t) dt = mX
2T −T

②
T
1
ˆ
limT →∞ x (t) x (t + τ ) dt = RX (τ ) .
2T −T

✶✶✳✹✳ ❊❥❡♠♣❧♦s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s

✶✶✳✹✳✶✳ ❘✉✐❞♦s ❜❧❛♥❝♦s

❊♥ t❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ❧♦s r✉✐❞♦s s♦♥ s❡ñ❛❧❡s q✉❡ s❡ ❛❞❤✐❡r❡♥ ❛ ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❡♥✈✐❛❞❛ ❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡
❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐ó♥✱ ❞❡ t❛❧ ♠❛♥❡r❛ q✉❡ ✉♥♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♦❜❥❡t✐✈♦s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡s ❡♥ ❡st❡ t✐♣♦ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❡s✱ ❞❛❞❛ ❧❛
s❡ñ❛❧ r❡s✉❧t❛♥t❡ ❞❡ s✉♠❛r ❧❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❡♥✈✐❛❞❛✱ X (t)✱ ② ❡❧ r✉✐❞♦ ❞❡❧ ❝❛♥❛❧✱ N (t)✱ ❡s ❞❡❝✐r✱ ❞❛❞❛ Y (t) = X (t)+N (t)✱
s❛❜❡r ✜❧tr❛r ❡st❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ❡st✐♠❛r ❝✉á❧ ❡s ❡❧ ✈❡r❞❛❞❡r♦ ✈❛❧♦r ❞❡ X (t)✳
❊♥ ❡st❡ ❛♣❛rt❛❞♦ ♥♦s r❡❢❡r✐♠♦s ❜r❡✈❡♠❡♥t❡ ❛ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❣❛st❛♥t❡ ❝♦♠ú♥ ♣❛r❛ ❧♦s ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ❞❡ r✉✐❞♦✱ ❧❧❛♠❛❞♦
r✉✐❞♦ ❜❧❛♥❝♦✳

✷✷✷ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❯♥ r✉✐❞♦ ❜❧❛♥❝♦ ❡s ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ N (t) ❝❡♥tr❛❞♦✱ ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦ ❡ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞♦ ❝♦♥ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ 2 ✳
N0
P♦r
t❛♥t♦✱ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ✭② ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✮ s❡rá

 N0
2 s✐ τ = 0
CN (t, t + τ ) = .
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❯t✐❧✐③❛♥❞♦ ❧❛ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ✐♠♣✉❧s♦✱ ❞❛❞❛ ♣♦r


1 s✐ t = 0
δ (t) = ,
0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❡st❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❡s❝r✐❜✐rs❡ ❝♦♠♦

N0
CN (τ ) = δ (τ ) .
2

▲❛ ❥✉st✐✜❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❡st❡ s❡❛ ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ♣❛r❛ ❧♦s r✉✐❞♦s✱ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧♦s ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡❧ r✉✐❞♦
❡stá♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞♦s ✉♥♦s ❝♦♥ ♦tr♦s✱ ❡s q✉❡ s✉❡❧❡♥ s❡r ❞❡❜✐❞♦s ❛ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s ② ❝❛ót✐❝♦s✱
♣♦r ❧♦ q✉❡ ♥♦ ❡s ❡s♣❡r❛❜❧❡ q✉❡ ❡①✐st❛ r❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❡♥tr❡ ✈❛❧♦r❡s ❞❡❧ r✉✐❞♦✱ ♥✐ s✐q✉✐❡r❛ ❝✉❛♥❞♦ ést♦s s♦♥ ♠✉② ❝❡r❝❛♥♦s
❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✳

✶✶✳✹✳✷✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦s

❍❛st❛ ❛❤♦r❛ ❤❡♠♦s ❞❡✜♥✐❞♦ ② ❡st✉❞✐❛❞♦ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛s ♠✉② ❣❡♥ér✐❝❛s ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ✭✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦s✱
✳✳✳✮✳ ❊♥ ❡st❛ s❡❝❝✐ó♥ ✈❛♠♦s ❛ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r ♠ás ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧❛ ❝♦♥♦❝✐❞❛ ❝♦♠♦ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦s
❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦s✱ q✉❡ ❝♦♥st✐t✉②❡✱ s✐♥ ❞✉❞❛✱ ❧❛ ♠ás ✐♠♣♦rt❛♥t❡ ❞❡ ❡♥tr❡ ❧❛s q✉❡ s❡ ✉t✐❧✐③❛♥ ❡♥ ❚❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ②
❡♥ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ♦tr♦ á♠❜✐t♦ ❞❡ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳

❯♥ ♣✳❛✳ X (t) s❡ ❞✐❝❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦ s✐ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝♦❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ t✐❡♥❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥
❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥❛✳ ❊s ❞❡❝✐r✱ s✐ ❝✉❛❧q✉✐❡r ❝♦❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ X (t1 ) , ..., X (tn ) t✐❡♥❡ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛
 
1 1 ′ −1
fX(t1 ),...,X(tn ) (x1 , ..., xn ) = p n exp − (x − µ) · C · (x − µ) ,
(2π) det (C) 2

❞♦♥❞❡

′
x = (x1 , ..., xn ) ,
′
µ = (E [X (t1 )] , ..., E [X (tn )]) ,
C = (Ci,j )i,j=1,..,n ,
Cij = Cov [X (ti ) , X (tj )] .

◆ót❡s❡ q✉❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦ ❡stá ❝♦♠♣❧❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡s❝r✐t♦ ✉♥❛ ✈❡③ q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡♥ s✉ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ② s✉
❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♦ s✉ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✳

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✷✸

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❊①✐st❡♥ ❞♦s r❛③♦♥❡s ❢✉♥❞❛♠❡♥t❛❧❡s ♣♦r ❧❛s q✉❡✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❤❡♠♦s ❝♦♠❡♥t❛❞♦✱ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦s s♦♥ ❧❛ ❢❛♠✐❧✐❛
❞❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ♠ás r❡❧❡✈❛♥t❡✿

P♦r ✉♥❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❧❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❛♥❛❧ít✐❝❛s q✉❡ ✈❡r✐✜❝❛♥ ❧♦s ❤❛❝❡♥ ❢á❝✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ♠❛♥❡❥❛❜❧❡s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ✈❡r❡♠♦s
❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥✳

P♦r ♦tr❛ ♣❛rt❡✱ ❡st♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❤❛♥ ❞❡♠♦str❛❞♦ s❡r ✉♥ ❡①❝❡❧❡♥t❡ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♠❛t❡♠át✐❝♦ ♣❛r❛ ❣r❛♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦
❞❡ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t♦s ♦ ❢❡♥ó♠❡♥♦s r❡❛❧❡s ✭r❡s✉❧t❛❞♦ ❛♠♣❛r❛❞♦ ❡♥ ❡❧ ❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❈❡♥tr❛❧ ❞❡❧ ▲í♠✐t❡✮✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊s ♠✉② ❤❛❜✐t✉❛❧ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r q✉❡ ❧♦s r✉✐❞♦s ❜❧❛♥❝♦s s♦♥ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦s✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ s✐ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s
r✉✐❞♦s ❜❧❛♥❝♦s ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦s✱ s✉s ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡s ♥♦ só❧♦ s♦♥ ✐♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❞❛s✱ s✐♥♦ q✉❡ t❛♠❜✐é♥ s♦♥ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❙❡❛ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦ X (t) ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦ ❝♦♥ E [X (t)] = 4 ② ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥
RX (τ ) = 25e−3|τ | + 16. ❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ✭② ❧❛ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✮ ❞❡❝r❡❝❡ rá♣✐❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥
❡❧ ♣❛s♦ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✳
❙✐ ❞❡s❡❛♠♦s ❝❛r❛❝t❡r✐③❛r ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ tr❡s ✈✳❛✳ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❞❛s ❡♥ ❧♦s
✐♥st❛♥t❡s t0 , t1 = t0 + 21 ② t2 = t1 + 12 = t0 + 1, ♥❡❝❡s✐t❛♠♦s ❧❛s ♠❡❞✐❛s✱ E [X (ti )] = 4 ② ❧❛ ♠❛tr✐③ ❞❡
❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✱ ❞❛❞❛ ❛ ♣❛rt✐r ❞❡ CX (τ ) = 25e−3|τ | ✳
 
25 25e−3/2 25e−6/2
CX(t0 ),X(t1 ),X(t2 ) =  25e−3/2 25 25e−3/2  .
 

25e−6/2 25e−3/2 25

❆❧❣✉♥❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ❞❡ ✐♥t❡rés ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦s✿

❯♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦ ❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡ s✐ ② só❧♦ s✐ C (ti , tj ) = 0 ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ i 6= j.

❙❡❛ X (t) ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦✳ ❊st❡ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ♠❛r❦♦✈✐❛♥♦ s✐ ② só❧♦ s✐

CX (t1 , t2 ) · CX (t2 , t3 )
CX (t1 , t3 ) = ,
CX (t2 , t2 )

♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛ t1 < t2 < t3 ✳

❯♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ X (t) ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦✱ ❝❡♥tr❛❞♦✱ ❝♦♥ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ② ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦s ❡s ❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈✳

✶✶✳✹✳✸✳ Pr♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥

❊❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❡s ✉♥ ♠♦❞❡❧♦ ♣❛r❛ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✈✐❞❛ r❡❛❧ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛♥ ♦❝✉rr❡♥❝✐❛s ❞❡ ✉♥ s✉❝❡s♦ ❛ ❧♦
❧❛r❣♦ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ ❞❡♥♦♠✐♥❛❞♦s ♣♦r ❡❧❧♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ r❡❝✉❡♥t♦✳
❆❧❣✉♥♦s ❞❡ ❧♦s ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦s ♠ás ❝♦♠✉♥❡s ❡♥ ❡❧ ❝❛♠♣♦ ❞❡ ❧❛s ❚❡❧❡❝♦♠✉♥✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s s♦♥ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧
♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ❧❧❛♠❛❞❛s r❡❝✐❜✐❞❛s ❡♥ ✉♥❛ ❝❡♥tr❛❧✐t❛ t❡❧❡❢ó♥✐❝❛ ♦ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈✐s✐t❛s ❛ ✉♥❛ ♣á❣✐♥❛
❲❊❇✳ ❊♥ ♦tr♦s á♠❜✐t♦s✱ ❝♦♠♦ ❧❛ ❋ís✐❝❛✱ ❡st♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ♣✉❡❞❡♥ s❡r✈✐r✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ ♣❛r❛ ❝♦♥t❛❜✐❧✐③❛r ❡❧
♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s ❡♠✐t✐❞❛s ♣♦r ✉♥ ❝✉❡r♣♦✳

✷✷✹ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❊♥ t♦❞❛s ❡st❛s ❛♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ t❡♥❞rí❛ ❧❛ ❡①♣r❡s✐ó♥

∞
X
N (t) = u (t − T [n]) ,
n=1

❞♦♥❞❡ T [n] ❡s ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦ q✉❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♠♦♠❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ❧❛ n−és✐♠❛ ❧❧❡❣❛❞❛ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛

❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ②

0 s✐ t < t0
u (t − t0 ) =
1 s✐ t ≥ t0

❡s ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ✉♠❜r❛❧✳

P∞
❊❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ ❡s ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ N (t) = n=1 u (t − T [n]) ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝✉❛❧ ❧❛ ✈✳❛✳ T [n]
❡s ✉♥❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ n ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ, ❧♦ q✉❡ ❣❡♥❡r❛ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡

❊r❧❛♥❣ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦s n ② λ, ❝♦♥ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞

n−1
(λt)
fT [n] (t) = λe−λt u (t) .
(n − 1)!

❆❧t❡r♥❛t✐✈❛♠❡♥t❡✱ ♣✉❡❞❡ ❞❡❝✐rs❡ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❡s ❛q✉é❧ ❡♥ ❡❧ q✉❡ ❧♦s t✐❡♠♣♦s ❡♥tr❡

❧❧❡❣❛❞❛s✱

Υ [n] = T [n] − T [n − 1] ,

s✐❣✉❡♥ s✐❡♠♣r❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧❡s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s

❛ ❞❡❧ ♠✐s♠♦ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦✱ ❡st♦ ❡s

fΥ[n] (t) = λe−λt u (t) .

❛ ❖❜sér✈❡s❡ ♣♦r t❛♥t♦ q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ T [n] t✐❡♥❡ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊♥ ❧❛ ❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✻ s❡ ♠✉❡str❛♥ ❢✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦

λ = 1✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ ✐♥t❡r♣r❡t❛r ❧❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✐③q✉✐❡r❞❛ ♣❡♥s❛♥❞♦✱ ♣♦r ❡❥❡♠♣❧♦✱ q✉❡ r❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛

❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈✐s✐t❛s ❛ ✉♥❛ ♣á❣✐♥❛ ❲❊❇✿ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛ q✉❡ ♣♦❝♦ ❞❡♣✉és ❞❡ ❧♦s tr❡s ♠✐♥✉t♦s s❡ ❤❛♥ ❞❛❞♦ ✸

✈✐s✐t❛s❀ ❞❡s♣✉és ♣❛s❛♥ ❝❛s✐ ✺ ♠✐♥✉t♦s s✐♥ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ✈✐s✐t❛❀ ❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛❝✐ó♥ s❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡♥ ✉♥ ❜✉❡♥ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡

✈✐s✐t❛s ❡♥ ♣♦❝♦ t✐❡♠♣♦❀ ✳✳✳

❙✐ ♦❜s❡r✈❛♠♦s t❛♥ só❧♦ ❡❧ ❡❥❡ ❞❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦✱ ♣♦❞rí❛♠♦s s❡ñ❛❧❛r ❧♦s ✐♥st❛♥t❡s ❡♥ q✉❡ s❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡♥ ❧❛s ❧❧❡❣❛❞❛s✳

❙❛❜❡♠♦s q✉❡ ❡s♦s ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦s ❡♥ ❡❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞❡s❞❡ q✉❡ s❡ ♣r♦❞✉❝❡ ✉♥❛ ❧❧❡❣❛❞❛ ❤❛st❛ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ s✐❣✉❡♥

✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✱ ❡♥ ❡st❡ ❝❛s♦ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ✶✳

❱❛♠♦s ❛ ❞❡s❝r✐❜✐r ❛❧❣✉♥❛s ❞❡ ❧❛s ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞❡s ♠ás ✐♥t❡r❡s❛♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✿

❙❡❛ N (t) ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ♣❛r❛ t♦❞♦ t s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ N (t) → P (λt)✳

▲❛ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ ❡s µN (t) = λt. P♦r t❛♥t♦✱ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ♥♦

❡s ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦✳

❙❡❛ N (t) ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ t✐❡♥❡ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✷✺

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✺✿ ❘❡♣r❡s❡♥t❛❝✐ó♥ ❣rá✜❝❛ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❢✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧ ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✳

② ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛ t1 < t2 ✱ ❡❧ ✐♥❝r❡♠❡♥t♦ N (t2 )−N (t1 ) s✐❣✉❡ ✉♥❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦
λ (t2 − t1 )✳

❙❡❛ N (t) ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ. ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s

CN (t1 , t2 ) = λ mı́n (t1 , t2 ) .

❙❡❛ N (t) ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ ♣❛r❛ ❝✉❛❧❡sq✉✐❡r❛ t1 < ... < tk ✱

fN (t1 ),...,N (tk ) (n1 , ..., nk )

 nk −nk−1
 −α1 αn1 1 −α2 α2n2 −n1
(nk −nk−1 )! s✐ n1 ≤ ... ≤ nk ,
−αk α2
e n1 ! · e (n2 −n1 )! · ... · e
=
 0 ❡♥ ♦tr♦ ❝❛s♦

❞♦♥❞❡ αi = λ (ti − ti−1 ) .

❊❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❡s ❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈✳

❙❡❛♥ N1 (t) ♣✳❛✳ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ1 , N2 (t) ♣✳❛✳ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ2 , ❛♠❜♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥✲
❞✐❡♥t❡s✳ ❊♥t♦♥❝❡s✱ N1 (t) + N2 (t) ❡s ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ1 + λ2 ✳ ❊st❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡
❝♦♠♦ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❛❞✐t✐✈❛✳

❙❡❛ N (t) ✉♥ ♣✳❛✳ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✳ ❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ ❞❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡✈❡♥t♦s q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧
♣r♦❝❡s♦✱ só❧♦ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛♠♦s ✉♥❛ ♣❛rt❡ ❞❡ ❡❧❧♦s❀ ❝♦♥❝r❡t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❧♦s q✉❡ ♣r❡s❡♥t❛♥ ✉♥❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ q✉❡
t✐❡♥❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ p ❡♥tr❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❡✈❡♥t♦s✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ s✐ ♥♦t❛♠♦s ♣♦r Np (t) ❛❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛

✷✷✻ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

❋✐❣✉r❛ ✶✶✳✻✿ ❋✉♥❝✐♦♥❡s ♠✉❡str❛❧❡s ❞❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ ✶✳

❧♦s ❡✈❡♥t♦s ❝♦♥ ❧❛ ❝❛r❛❝t❡ríst✐❝❛ ❞❛❞❛✱ ❞✐❝❤♦ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❡s ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ · p. ❊st❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞

s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❞❡s❝♦♠♣♦s✐❝✐ó♥✳

❊❧ t✐❡♠♣♦ W q✉❡ tr❛♥s❝✉rr❡ ❞❡s❞❡ ✉♥ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ ❛r❜✐tr❛r✐♦ t0 ❤❛st❛ ❧❛ s✐❣✉✐❡♥t❡ ❞✐s❝♦♥t✐♥✉✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ✉♥

♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ ❡s ✉♥❛ ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ✱ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥✲

❞✐❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡❧❡❝❝✐ó♥ ❞❡❧ ♣✉♥t♦ t0 ✳ ❊st❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❛♣❛r❡♥t❡♠❡♥t❡ ♣❛r❛❞ó❥✐❝❛ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ ❝♦♠♦

♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♥♦ ♠❡♠♦r✐❛ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✳ ❖❜sér✈❡s❡ q✉❡✱ ❡♥ r❡❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ❡st❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❞❡ ♥♦

♠❡♠♦r✐❛ ❧♦ ❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊s ❢r❡❝✉❡♥t❡ ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛r q✉❡ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s ❡♠✐t✐❞❛s ♣♦r ✉♥

♠❛t❡r✐❛❧ r❛❞✐❛❝t✐✈♦ ❡s ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✳ ❱❛♠♦s ❛ s✉♣♦♥❡r ♣♦r t❛♥t♦✱ q✉❡ ❡st❛♠♦s ♦❜s❡r✈❛♥❞♦ ❡❧

❝♦♠♣♦rt❛♠✐❡♥t♦ ❞❡ ✉♥ ❞❡t❡r♠✐♥❛❞♦ ♠❛t❡r✐❛❧ ❞❡❧ q✉❡ s❡ ❝♦♥♦❝❡ q✉❡ ❡♠✐t❡ ❛ r❛③ó♥ ❞❡ λ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s ♣♦r

s❡❣✉♥❞♦✳

❙✉♣♦♥❣❛♠♦s q✉❡ s❡ ♦❜s❡r✈❛ ❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ q✉❡ ❝✉❡♥t❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s ❡♠✐t✐❞❛s ❞❡s❞❡ ✉♥ ✐♥st❛♥t❡

t ❤❛st❛ ❡❧ ✐♥st❛♥t❡ t + T0 ✳ ❙✐ ❡♥ ❡s❡ ✐♥t❡r✈❛❧♦ ❞❡ t✐❡♠♣♦ s❡ s✉♣❡r❛ ✉♥ ✉♠❜r❛❧ ❞❡ N0 ♣❛rtí❝✉❧❛s✱ ❞❡❜❡rí❛

s♦♥❛r ✉♥❛ s❡ñ❛❧ ❞❡ ❛❧❛r♠❛✳ ❊♥ ❡s❡ ❝❛s♦✱ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ❧❛ ❛❧❛r♠❛ s✉❡♥❡ ❡s

∞ k 0 N k
X (λT0 ) X (λT0 )
P [N (t + T0 ) − N (t) > N0 ] = e−λT0 =1− e−λT0 ,
k! k!
k=N0 +1 k=0

②❛ q✉❡ N (t + T0 ) − N (t) → P (λT0 )✳

❊❥❡♠♣❧♦✳ ❊❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈✐s✐t❛s ❛ ❧❛ ♣á❣✐♥❛ ❲❊❇ ❞❡ ✉♥❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ q✉❡ ❞❡s❡❛ ✈❡♥❞❡r s✉s ♣r♦❞✉❝t♦s ❛

tr❛✈és ❞❡ ■◆❚❊❘◆❊❚ ❡s ❛❞❡❝✉❛❞❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡s❝r✐t♦ ♠❡❞✐❛♥t❡ ✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✳ ❙❛❜✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❞✉r❛♥t❡

✉♥❛ ❤♦r❛ s❡ r❡❝✐❜❡♥ ✉♥ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ✺ ✈✐s✐t❛s✱

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✷✼

 ❉♣t♦ ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❡ ■✳❖✳ ❯♥✐✈❡rs✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❏❛é♥

✶✳ ➽❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ ♥♦ s❡ r❡❝✐❜❛ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ✈✐s✐t❛ ❡♥ ♠❡❞✐❛ ❤♦r❛❄

0
(5 × 0.5)
P [N (0.5) = 0] = e−5×0.5 = 8.2085 × 10−2 ,
0!

❛♣❡♥❛s ✉♥ ✽ ✪ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✳

✷✳ ➽❈✉á❧ ❡s ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ✈✐s✐t❛s ❡♥ ✺ ❤♦r❛s ❛ ❧❛ ❲❊❇❄ E [N (5)] = 5 × 5 = 25 visitas.

✸✳ ▲❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❛❜s♦r❜❡ ♦tr❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❞❡❧ s❡❝t♦r ② ♦♣t❛ ♣♦r ❡st❛❜❧❡❝❡r ✉♥ ❡♥❧❛❝❡ ❞✐r❡❝t❛♠❡♥t❡ ❞❡s❞❡ ❧❛
♣á❣✐♥❛ ❞❡ s✉ ✜❧✐❛❧ ❛ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣✐❛✱ ❣❛r❛♥t✐③á♥❞♦s❡ q✉❡ t♦❞♦s ❧♦s ❝❧✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ✜❧✐❛❧ ✈✐s✐t❛♥ s✉ ♣á❣✐♥❛✳
❙✐ ❡❧ ♣r♦♠❡❞✐♦ ❞❡ ❝❧✐❡♥t❡s q✉❡ ✈✐s✐t❛❜❛♥ ❧❛ ♣á❣✐♥❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ✜❧✐❛❧ ❡r❛ ❞❡ ✷ ❝❧✐❡♥t❡s ❛ ❧❛ ❤♦r❛✱ ➽❝✉á❧ ❡s ❧❛
♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡ q✉❡ tr❛s ❧❛ ❢✉s✐ó♥ ♥♦ s❡ r❡❝✐❜❛ ♥✐♥❣✉♥❛ ✈✐s✐t❛ ❡♥ ✶✵ ♠✐♥✉t♦s❄
❆❧ ❤❛❝❡rs❡ ❝♦♥ ❧♦s ❝❧✐❡♥t❡s ❞❡ ❧❛ ♦tr❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ✭♥♦t❡♠♦s ♣♦r M (t) ❛❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ q✉❡ ❝♦♥t❛❜❛
s✉s ✈✐s✐t❛s✱ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ = 2 visitas/hora✮✱ ❧♦ q✉❡ ❤❛ ♦❝✉rr✐❞♦ ❡s q✉❡ ❛❤♦r❛ ❡❧ ♥ú♠❡r♦ ❞❡ ✈✐s✐t❛s
❛ ❧❛ ❲❊❇ ❞❡ ❧❛ ❡♠♣r❡s❛ ❡s ❧❛ s✉♠❛ ❞❡ ❛♠❜♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s✿ T (t) = N (t) + M (t) .
❙✉♣♦♥✐❡♥❞♦ q✉❡ ❧♦s ♣r♦❝❡s♦s ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥ q✉❡ ❝♦♥t❛❜❛♥ ❧❛s ✈✐s✐t❛s ❛ ❛♠❜❛s ❡♠♣r❡s❛s ❢✉❡r❛♥ ✐♥❞❡✲
♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ s❡ t✐❡♥❡ q✉❡ T (t)✱ ❡♥ ✈✐rt✉❞ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦♣✐❡❞❛❞ ❛❞✐t✐✈❛ ❞❡❧ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✱ ❡s t❛♠❜✐é♥
✉♥ ♣r♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✱ ❞❡ ♣❛rá♠❡tr♦ λ = 5 + 2 = 7 visitas/hora✳ P♦r t❛♥t♦✱

1 0


−7× 16 7 × 6
   
1
P T =0 =e = 0.3114,
6 0!

✉♥❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❞❡❧ ✸✶ ✪✳

✷✷✽ Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦

❇✐❜❧✐♦❣r❛❢í❛
❬❈❛♥❛✈♦s✱ ●✳ ❈✳ ✭✶✾✽✽✮❪ ❈❛♥❛✈♦s✱ ●✳ ❈✳ ✭✶✾✽✽✮✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳ ❆♣❧✐❝❛❝✐♦♥❡s ② ▼ét♦❞♦s✳
▼❝●r❛✇✲❍✐❧❧✳

❬❉❡❱♦r❡✱ ❏✳ ▲✳ ✭✷✵✵✹✮❪ ❉❡❱♦r❡✱ ❏✳ ▲✳ ✭✷✵✵✹✮✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ② ❝✐❡♥❝✐❛s ✭✻➟ ❡❞✐❝✐ó♥✮✳
❚❤♦♠s♦♥✳

❬❏♦❤♥s♦♥✱ ❘✳ ❆✳ ✭✶✾✾✼✮❪ ❏♦❤♥s♦♥✱ ❘✳ ❆✳ ✭✶✾✾✼✮✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s ✭✺➟ ❡❞✐❝✐ó♥✮✳ Pr❡♥✲
t✐❝❡ ❍❛❧❧✳

❬▲❡♦♥✲●❛r❝✐❛✱ ❆✳❪ ▲❡♦♥✲●❛r❝✐❛✱ ❆✳ ✭✶✾✾✹✮✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ❛♥❞ ❘❛♥❞♦♠ Pr♦❝❡ss❡s ❢♦r ❊❧❡❝tr✐❝❛❧ ❊♥❣✐♥❡❡r✐♥❣ ✭✷♥❞
❡❞✐t✐♦♥✮✳ ❆❞❞✐s♦♥✲❲❡s❧❡②✳

❬▲✐♣s❝❤✉t③✱ ❙✳ ✫ ❙❝❤✐❧❧❡r✱ ❏✳ ✭✷✵✵✵✮❪ ▲✐♣s❝❤✉t③✱ ❙✳ ✫ ❙❝❤✐❧❧❡r✱ ❏✳ ✭✷✵✵✵✮✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❛ ❧❛ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② ❧❛

❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳ ▼❝●r❛✇✲❍✐❧❧✳

❬▼❡♥❞❡♥❤❛❧✱ ❲ ✫ ❙✐♥❝✐❝❤✱ ❚✳ ✭✶✾✾✼✮❪ ▼❡♥❞❡♥❤❛❧✱ ❲ ✫ ❙✐♥❝✐❝❤✱ ❚✳ ✭✶✾✾✼✮✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛

■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ② ❈✐❡♥❝✐❛s ✭✹➟ ❡❞✐❝✐ó♥✮✳ Pr❡♥t✐❝❡ ❍❛❧❧✳

❬▼♦♥t❣♦♠❡r②✱ ❉✳ ❈✳ ✫ ❘✉♥❣❡r✱ ●✳ ❈✳ ✭✷✵✵✷✮❪ ▼♦♥t❣♦♠❡r②✱ ❉✳ ❈✳ ✫ ❘✉♥❣❡r✱ ●✳ ❈✳ ✭✷✵✵✷✮✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ②

❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ❛♣❧✐❝❛❞❛s ❛ ❧❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡rí❛ ✭✷➟ ❡❞✐❝✐ó♥✮✳ ❲✐❧❡②✳

❬◆❛✈✐❞✐✱ ❲✳ ✭✷✵✵✻✮❪ ◆❛✈✐❞✐✱ ❲✳ ✭✷✵✵✻✮✳ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ✐♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s ② ❝✐❡♥tí✜❝♦s✳ ▼❝●r❛✇✲❍✐❧❧✳

❬❘♦ss✱ ❙✳ ▼✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✮❪ ❘♦ss✱ ❙✳ ▼✳ ✭✷✵✵✺✮✳ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝❝✐ó♥ ❛ ❧❛ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛✳ ❊❞✐t♦r✐❛❧ ❘❡✈❡rté✳

❬❙♣✐❡❣❡❧ ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✮❪ ❙♣✐❡❣❡❧✱ ▼✳ ❘✳✱ ❙❝❤✐❧❧❡r✱ ❏✳ ② ❙r✐♥✐✈❛s❛♥✱ ❘✳ ❆✳ ✭✷✵✶✵✮✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ✭✸➟
❡❞✐❝✐ó♥✮✱ s❡r✐❡ ❙❝❤❛✉♠✳ ▼❝●r❛✇✲❍✐❧❧✳

❬❲❛❧♣♦❧❡✱ ❘✳ ❊ ❡t ❛❧ ✭✶✾✾✽✮❪ ❲❛❧♣♦❧❡✱ ❘✳ ❊✳✱ ▼②❡rs✱ ❘✳ ❍✳ ✫ ▼②❡rs✱ ❙✳ ▲✳ ✭✶✾✾✽✮✳ Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ② ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛

♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s ✭✻➟ ❡❞✐❝✐ó♥✮✳ Pr❡♥t✐❝❡ ❍❛❧❧✳

✷✷✾
❮♥❞✐❝❡ ❛❧❢❛❜ét✐❝♦
❆◆❖❱❆✱ ✶✻✽✕✶✼✵
❇♦♥❢❡rr♦♥✐✱ ♠ét♦❞♦ ❞❡✱ ✶✼✶✱ ✶✼✷
❈♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❛s✐♠❡trí❛✱ ✸✶
❈♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥ ❧✐♥❡❛❧✱ ✶✶✷✱ ✶✾✺✕✶✾✾✱ ✷✶✷
❈♦❡✜❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛❝✐ó♥✱ ✸✵✱ ✸✼✱ ✸✽
❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ❞❡ ❤✐♣ót❡s✐s✱ ✶✸✹✱ ✶✹✾✕✶✺✷
❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❡❧ ❝♦❝✐❡♥t❡ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✱ ✶✻✼
❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s✱ ✶✺✾✱ ✶✻✵✱ ✶✻✷
❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ❞✐❢❡r❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ✶✻✻
❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ✶✺✻✱ ✶✺✽
❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ❧❛ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ✶✻✼
❈♦♥tr❛st❡ ♣❛r❛ ♣r♦♣♦r❝✐ó♥✱ ✶✻✹
❈♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ✶✶✷
❈✉❛♥t✐❧✱ ✷✼✱ ✾✷✱ ✾✸
❉❛t♦s ❝✉❛❧✐t❛t✐✈♦s✱ ✷✵
❉❛t♦s ❝✉❛♥t✐t❛t✐✈♦s✱ ✷✶✱ ✷✷✱ ✷✺✱ ✸✹
❞❡ ❝♦❧❛ ♣❡s❛❞❛✱ ✸✷
❉❡s✈✐❛❝✐ó♥ tí♣✐❝❛ ♦ ❡st❛♥❞❛r✱ ✷✾✕✸✶✱ ✸✼✱ ✻✹✱ ✽✵✱ ✽✽✱
✶✷✽✱ ✶✷✾✱ ✶✹✺✱ ✶✺✼
❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s✱ ✷✷✱ ✷✸✱ ✷✺✱ ✸✶
❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ ❝❛❥❛s ② ❜✐❣♦t❡s✱ ✸✺✱ ✸✻✱ ✸✽
❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛ ❞❡ s❡❝t♦r❡s✱ ✷✵✱ ✷✶
❉✐❛❣r❛♠❛s ❞❡ ❜❛rr❛s✱ ✷✵✕✷✹
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧✱ ✻✺✱ ✻✻✱ ✻✾✱ ✽✼✱ ✾✶✱ ✶✸✽
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❜✐♥♦♠✐❛❧ ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❛✱ ✼✶✱ ✼✷✱ ✶✸✾
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ χ2 ✱ ✶✷✾
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ χ2 ✱ ✽✺✱ ✶✸✵✱ ✶✹✻✱ ✶✻✼✱ ✶✼✵✱ ✶✼✼✱ ✶✼✽✱ ✶✽✹✱
✶✽✺
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✱ ✻✽✱ ✽✸✱ ✽✼✱ ✷✷✷
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❡①♣♦♥❡♥❝✐❛❧✱ ✽✷✕✽✹✱ ✶✹✺✱ ✶✽✶✱ ✷✷✶✱ ✷✷✸
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❋ ❞❡ ❙♥❡❞❡❝♦r✱ ✶✸✵✱ ✶✸✶✱ ✶✼✵
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ●❛♠♠❛✱ ✽✹✱ ✽✺✱ ✶✷✾✱ ✶✸✽✱ ✶✼✾✱ ✷✷✶
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ❣❡♦♠étr✐❝❛✱ ✼✵✱ ✼✶✱ ✶✸✾✱ ✶✼✽
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧✱ ✶✵✶
✷✸✵
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧✱ ✽✻
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ♥♦r♠❛❧ ♠✉❧t✐✈❛r✐❛♥t❡✱ ✶✷✵✱ ✷✶✾
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ t ❞❡ ❙t✉❞❡♥t✱ ✶✸✵✱ ✶✺✽✱ ✶✻✶✕✶✻✹✱ ✶✾✹✱
✶✾✺✱ ✷✵✵✱ ✷✵✶
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥ ✉♥✐❢♦r♠❡✱ ✽✷
❉✐str✐❜✉❝✐♦♥❡s ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛s✱ ✶✵✹
❊rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■✱ ✶✺✶✕✶✺✸✱ ✶✺✽✱ ✶✼✶
❊rr♦r t✐♣♦ ■■✱ ✶✺✷✱ ✶✺✽
❊s♣❛❝✐♦ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ✹✸✕✹✺✱ ✹✽✱ ✺✵✱ ✺✸✱ ✻✶✱ ✻✷✱ ✶✸✼
❊st❛❞íst✐❝♦ ❞❡ ❝♦♥tr❛st❡✱ ✶✺✵✕✶✺✸✱ ✶✺✺✱ ✶✺✼✱ ✶✺✾✱ ✶✻✶✱
✶✻✹✱ ✶✻✻✕✶✻✽✱ ✶✼✵✱ ✶✼✸✱ ✶✽✶✱ ✶✽✹✱ ✶✽✺✱ ✶✾✽
❊st✐♠❛❞♦r ♣✉♥t✉❛❧✱ ✶✸✹✱ ✶✼✺✱ ✶✼✻
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ✷✶✷✱ ✷✶✺
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❛✉t♦❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛✱ ✷✶✶✱ ✷✶✺
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞✱ ✼✺✕✼✽✱ ✽✶✕✽✹✱ ✽✻✱ ✽✽✱ ✾✶✱ ✾✷✱
✶✷✼✱ ✶✷✾✱ ✶✸✻✱ ✶✸✼✱ ✶✸✾
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞❡♥s✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛✱ ✾✾
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ❞❡ ❞✐str✐❜✉❝✐ó♥✱ ✼✻✕✼✽✱ ✽✸✱ ✽✽✱ ✾✸✱ ✶✼✾✕✶✽✶
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❝♦♥❥✉♥t❛✱ ✾✾
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❛s❛ ❞❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ✻✷✱ ✻✸✱ ✻✽✱ ✼✵✱ ✼✶✱ ✼✹✱
✽✶✱ ✾✷✱ ✶✷✼✱ ✶✸✾
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠❡❞✐❛✱ ✷✶✶
❋✉♥❝✐ó♥ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ✷✵✽
❍✐st♦❣r❛♠❛✱ ✷✷✕✷✺✱ ✷✽✱ ✸✵✱ ✸✶✱ ✸✹✕✸✼✱ ✼✸✕✼✺✱ ✼✼✱ ✾✵✱
✾✶✱ ✶✸✻✱ ✶✸✼
■♥❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐ó♥✱ ✶✶✷
■♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❞❡ s✉❝❡s♦s✱ ✹✽✕✺✵✱ ✺✷✱ ✺✸✱ ✻✽✱ ✶✽✶
■♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛ ❡st❛❞íst✐❝❛✱ ✷✶✸✱ ✷✶✹
■♥s❡s❣❛❞❡③✱ ✶✸✹✕✶✸✼✱ ✶✹✽
■♥t❡r✈❛❧♦s ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ✶✸✹✱ ✶✹✷✕✶✹✽✱ ✷✵✵
▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ❧♦s ♠♦♠❡♥t♦s✱ ✶✸✽✕✶✹✷✱ ✶✼✺✱ ✶✼✽✱ ✶✽✶
▼ét♦❞♦ ❞❡ ♠á①✐♠❛ ✈❡r♦s✐♠✐❧✐t✉❞✱ ✶✸✾✕✶✹✷✱ ✶✹✽✱ ✶✼✺✱
✶✽✶✱ ✶✾✵
❆♣✉♥t❡s ❞❡ ❊st❛❞íst✐❝❛ ♣❛r❛ ■♥❣❡♥✐❡r♦s

▼❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ❝♦rr❡❧❛❝✐♦♥❡s✱ ✶✶✽
▼❛tr✐③ ❞❡ ✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✲❝♦✈❛r✐❛♥③❛s✱ ✶✶✽
▼❡❞✐❛✱ ✷✺✱ ✻✹✱ ✶✸✺✱ ✶✺✻
▼❡❞✐❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ✷✺✱ ✷✻✱ ✷✽✕✸✶✱ ✸✹✱ ✻✹✱ ✽✶✱ ✽✼✱ ✶✷✽✱
✶✷✾✱ ✶✸✺✱ ✶✹✹✕✶✹✻✱ ✶✺✵✱ ✶✺✻✱ ✶✻✾✱ ✷✶✼
▼❡❞✐❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✱ ✸✹✱ ✻✸✱ ✻✹✱ ✼✽✱ ✽✵✱ ✽✶✱ ✾✵✱ ✾✶✱ ✶✷✾✱
✶✸✺✱ ✶✹✹✕✶✹✼✱ ✶✺✵✱ ✶✺✻✱ ✶✾✷✱ ✶✾✾✱ ✷✵✷
▼❡❞✐❛♥❛✱ ✷✻✱ ✷✽✱ ✸✶✱ ✸✺
▼♦❞❛✱ ✷✻✱ ✸✶
♠✉❡str❛✱ ✶✺
▼✉❡str❛ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ s✐♠♣❧❡✱ ✷✵✱ ✷✾✱ ✸✸✱ ✸✻✱ ✸✼✱ ✻✸✱ ✻✺✱
✼✹✱ ✶✽✸✱ ✶✾✻✱ ✶✾✼
❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛✱ ✻✶✱ ✻✷✱ ✻✺✱ ✽✼✱ ✶✷✼✕✶✷✾✱ ✶✸✽✱ ✶✸✾✱
✶✹✷✱ ✶✺✵✱ ✶✽✾
❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉❛✱ ✼✸✱ ✼✻✱ ✼✽
❱❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐❛ ❞✐s❝r❡t❛✱ ✻✷✕✻✹
❱❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♠✉❡str❛❧✱ ✷✽✱ ✷✾✱ ✻✹✱ ✽✶✱ ✶✷✾✱ ✶✸✺✱ ✶✸✻✱ ✶✹✹✱
✶✺✻✱ ✶✻✷✱ ✶✻✼✱ ✶✻✾
❱❛r✐❛♥③❛ ♣♦❜❧❛❝✐♦♥❛❧✱ ✻✸✱ ✻✹✱ ✼✽✱ ✽✵✱ ✽✶✱ ✶✷✾✱ ✶✸✹✕✶✸✻✱
✶✸✽✱ ✶✹✹✕✶✹✽✱ ✶✺✻✱ ✶✻✼✱ ✶✼✵✱ ✶✾✸✱ ✷✵✷✱ ✷✶✷
❱❡❝t♦r ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ✾✽
❱❡❝t♦r ❞❡ ♠❡❞✐❛s✱ ✶✶✽

◆✐✈❡❧ ❞❡ ❝♦♥✜❛♥③❛✱ ✶✹✷✕✶✹✹✱ ✶✹✽✱ ✶✺✶✕✶✺✹✱ ✶✺✼✱ ✶✺✽✱

✶✻✵✱ ✶✻✶✱ ✶✼✶✱ ✶✼✼✱ ✶✼✽✱ ✶✽✵✱ ✶✽✹✱ ✶✾✹✱ ✷✵✵

❖rt♦❣♦♥❛❧✐❞❛❞✱ ✶✶✷

♣✲✈❛❧♦r✱ ✶✺✸✱ ✶✺✹✱ ✶✺✻✱ ✶✺✽✕✶✻✶✱ ✶✻✹✱ ✶✻✻✕✶✻✽✱ ✶✼✶✕

✶✼✸✱ ✶✼✻✕✶✽✶✱ ✶✽✸✱ ✶✽✺✱ ✶✾✹
P❡r❝❡♥t✐❧✱ ✷✼✱ ✸✹✱ ✸✺✱ ✸✼✱ ✸✽✱ ✾✷✕✾✹
Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞✱ ✹✶✱ ✹✷✱ ✹✺✱ ✹✼✱ ✹✽
Pr♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ ❝♦♥❞✐❝✐♦♥❛❞❛✱ ✹✽✕✺✵
Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦✱ ✷✵✽
Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✱ ✷✵✾
Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❛❧❡❛t♦r✐♦ ❡♥ t✐❡♠♣♦ ❞✐s❝r❡t♦✱ ✷✵✾
Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❞é❜✐❧♠❡♥t❡ ❡st❛❝✐♦♥❛r✐♦✱ ✷✶✺
Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ ▼❛r❦♦✈✱ ✷✶✺✱ ✷✷✵
Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❞❡ P♦✐ss♦♥✱ ✷✷✶
Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❡r❣ó❞✐❝♦✱ ✷✶✽
Pr♦❝❡s♦ ❣❛✉ss✐❛♥♦✱ ✷✶✾
Pr♦❝❡s♦s ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞✐❡♥t❡s✱ ✷✶✸

❘❡❝t❛ ❞❡ r❡❣r❡s✐ó♥✱ ✶✾✶

❘✉✐❞♦ ❜❧❛♥❝♦✱ ✷✶✾

❚❛❜❧❛ ❞❡ ❢r❡❝✉❡♥❝✐❛s✱ ✷✶
❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❇❛②❡s✱ ✺✸✕✺✺
❚❡♦r❡♠❛ ❞❡ ❧❛ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐❞❛❞ t♦t❛❧✱ ✺✸✕✺✺
❚❡st chi2 ❞❡ ❜♦♥❞❛❞ ❞❡ ❛❥✉st❡✱ ✶✼✻✱ ✶✼✽
❚❡st chi2 ❞❡ ✐♥❞❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝✐❛✱ ✶✽✶
❚❡st ❞❡ ❑♦❧♠♦❣♦r♦✈✲❙♠✐r♥♦✛✱ ✶✼✾✱ ✶✾✶✱ ✶✾✷✱ ✶✾✻✱ ✶✾✽✕
✷✵✷

❱❛❧♦r❡s z ✱ ✸✹✱ ✾✵

Pr♦❢✳ ❉r✳ ❆♥t♦♥✐♦ ❏♦sé ❙á❡③ ❈❛st✐❧❧♦ ✷✸✶