BOLIVIA: SUPERFICIE AUTORIZADA PARA DESMONTE, SEGÚN DEPARTAMENTO POR AÑO, 2001 - 2019

(En hectáreas)
DEPARTAMENTO 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
TOTAL 25,418 34,421 38,811 51,682 35,949 37,405 49,983 35,789 40,506 37,780 30,593
Chuquisaca 1,904 1,228 1,557 1,267 1,511 340 677 568 252 299 353
La Paz 347 699 1,234 1,103 1,216 470 1,627 1,987 2,143 1,673 2,911
Cochabamba 1,158 713 1,085 1,140 1,276 943 1,346 1,233 1,556 1,080 596
Potosí 0 0 0 0 20 1 5 0 0 186 0
Tarija 962 710 330 568 1,617 686 5,333 980 1,319 1,892 496
Santa Cruz 20,081 30,372 33,895 45,247 29,015 34,530 40,259 30,032 34,153 29,827 22,556
Beni 838 663 671 1,583 869 314 736 935 941 2,368 2,251
Pando 129 37 39 775 425 120 0 54 141 456 1,429
Fuente: Autoridad de Fiscalización y Control Social de Bosques y Tierra
Instituto Nacional de Estadística
(p): Preliminar
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de 1
Coeficiente d 1
R^2 ajustado 1
Error típico 1.35035440839E-11
Observacione 19

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 9 1.1967E+11 13296598268.7979 7.292E+31 2.743E-142
Residuos 9 1.6411E-21 1.82345702826551E-22
Total 18 1.1967E+11

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95%

Intercepción -1.3253611542E-09 4.3148E-09 -0.307166666469951 0.76570511 -1.1086E-08
AÑO 6.51416226945E-13 2.1545E-12 0.302354004696395 0.76925317 -4.2224E-12
Chuquisaca 0.999999999999993 7.8213E-15 127855907542472 5.577E-124 1
La Paz 1 7.1318E-15 140216528485095 2.43E-124 1
Cochabamba0.999999999999999 3.2649E-15 306290802668087 2.146E-127 1
Potosí 1.00000000000004 9.2854E-14 10769570065079.5 2.613E-114 1
Tarija 1 3.194E-15 313086188791473 1.762E-127 1
Santa Cruz 1 1.3259E-16 7541931472321940 6.45E-140 1
Beni 1 4.1173E-15 242879356415985 1.731E-126 1
Pando 0.999999999999996 8.7567E-15 114197653292452 1.542E-123 1

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico TOTAL Residuos Residuos estándares

1 25418.356 2.9104E-11 1.25364407437337 Y = β0 + β1 X1 + β
2 34421.1468 2.1828E-11 0.940233055780026
3 38811.15825 1.4552E-11 0.626822037186684
4 51682.255323457 0 0
5 35949.43015 1.4552E-11 0.626822037186684
6 37405.4393 7.276E-12 0.313411018593342
7 49983.4175259765 1.4552E-11 0.626822037186684
8 35788.7345512695 7.276E-12 0.313411018593342
9 40506.0438220703 7.276E-12 0.313411018593342
10 37780.0010550586 7.276E-12 0.313411018593342
11 30592.8747890625 1.0914E-11 0.470116527890013
12 30456.5816262891 1.4552E-11 0.626822037186684
13 54123.316360388 1.4552E-11 0.626822037186684
14 88835.8071961256 -1.4552E-11 -0.626822037186684
15 179053.88992192 -2.9104E-11 -1.25364407437337
16 226510.464358469 -2.9104E-11 -1.25364407437337
17 229186.575676092 -2.9104E-11 -1.25364407437337
18 259180.812458632 -2.9104E-11 -1.25364407437337
19 190268.412580194 -5.8208E-11 -2.50728814874674
 AÑO Gráfico de los residuales
5E-11
Chuquisaca Gráfico de los residuale

Residuos
0
2004 2006 2008 La
5E-11
2000 2002 Paz
2010 Gráfico
2012 2014 2016de los2020
2018 res
-5E-11

Residuos
0
-1E-10 0 5E-11
1,000 2,000 Cochabamba
3,000 4,000 Gráfi
5,00
-5E-11

Residuos
0AÑO
or crítico de F
-1E-10 0 500 1,000 1,500Potosí le
G
2,000 2,5
-5E-11
Chuquisaca 5E-11

Residuos
-1E-10 5E-11
0

Residuos
-5E-11 0 1,0000La Paz
2,000 3
-1E-10 0 20
-5E-11
Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Superior 95,0% Co
-1E-10
8.4354E-09 -1.1086E-08 8.4354E-09
5.5252E-12 -4.2224E-12 5.5252E-12
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1
1 1 1

Y = β0 + β1 X1 + β2 X2 +β3 X3 .......+βn Xn

PARA β
β0 -1.325361E-09
β1 6.5141623E-13
β2 1
β3 1
β4 1
β5 1
β6 1
β7 1
β8 1
β9 1
siduales
co de los residuales
Gráfico
12 2014 2016de los2020
2018 residuales
Cochabamba
3,000 4,000 Gráfico
5,000 de
6,000los residua-

0 1,000 1,500Potosí les

Gráfico
2,000 2,500 3,000 de 3,500los residuales
4,000
Chuquisaca
-11
5E-11
0 Tarija Gráfico de los7,000
residuales
Residuos

-11 0 1,0000La Paz

2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000
-10 0 205E-1140 60 Santa
80 100Cruz 120 Gráfico
140 160 de 180 los
200 residuales
-5E-11
Residuos

Cochabamba
0
-1E-10 5E-11 2,000
-5E-11
0 1,000 Beni
3,000 Gráfico
4,000 5,000 de los7,000
6,000 residuales
Residuos

0Potosí
-1E-10 5E-11
-5E-11
0 50,000
Pando
100,000
Gráfico
150,000
de
200,000
los residuales
250,000
Residuos

0 Tarija
-1E-10 5E-11 4,000
-5E-11 0 2,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000
Residuos

Santa
0 Cruz
-1E-10
-5E-11 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500
Beni
-1E-10
Pando
s
esiduales
12,000 14,000

0 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500

AÑO Chuquisaca La Paz Cochabamba Potosí Tarija Santa Cruz Beni
2001 1,904 347 1,158 0 962 20,081 838
2002 1,228 699 713 0 710 30,372 663
2003 1,557 1,234 1,085 0 330 33,895 671
2004 1,267 1,103 1,140 0 568 45,247 1,583
2005 1,511 1,216 1,276 20 1,617 29,015 869
2006 340 470 943 1 686 34,530 314
2007 677 1,627 1,346 5 5,333 40,259 736
2008 568 1,987 1,233 0 980 30,032 935
2009 252 2,143 1,556 0 1,319 34,153 941
2010 299 1,673 1,080 186 1,892 29,827 2,368
2011 353 2,911 596 0 496 22,556 2,251
2012 438 3,620 1,082 0 2,717 19,248 2,128
2013 633 2,256 6,084 0 2,354 38,700 2,560
2014 885 2,179 661 0 1,678 80,044 1,542
2015 144 3,535 607 0 1,224 169,772 1,043
2016 1,727 1,686 1,013 0 2,210 212,550 3,362
2017 794 3,466 1,156 37 5,291 209,329 6,319
2018 5,373 2,639 1,439 0 6,481 228,488 12,139
2019 2,370 3,781 2,042 0 5,043 165,575 8,454
Pando TOTAL
129 25,418
37 34,421
39 38,811 TOTAL
775 51,682
425 35,949 300,000
120 37,405
250,000
0 49,983 f(x) = 57.3539168312872 x + 17793.9825973356
54 35,789 200,000 R² = 0.785888682005467
141 40,506 TOTAL
456 37,780 150,000
Axis Title Linear (TOTAL)
1,429 30,593 100,000
1,224 30,457
1,536 54,123 50,000
1,847 88,836
0
2,731 179,054 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
3,964 226,510
2,795 229,187 Axis Title
2,623 259,181
3,002 190,268
5973356

TOTAL
Linear (TOTAL)
 Pando TOTAL a b pronostico error
129 25,418 57.354 17794 25198.4014 220
37 34,421 57.354 17794 19898.31826 14,523
39 38,811 57.354 17794 20030.806 18,780
775 51,682 57.354 17794 62237.671954 10,555
425 35,949 57.354 17794 42178.970764 6,230
120 37,405 57.354 17794 24703.43638 12,702
0 49,983 57.354 17794 17794 32,189
54 35,789 57.354 17794 20899.14556 14,890
141 40,506 57.354 17794 25898.9116852 14,607
456 37,780 57.354 17794 43921.6147 6,142
1,429 30,593 57.354 17794 99737.5324081 69,145
1,224 30,457 57.354 17794 88002.235834 57,546
1,536 54,123 57.354 17794 105868.752436 51,745
1,847 88,836 57.354 17794 123750.231091 34,914
2,731 179,054 57.354 17794 174403.383409 4,651
3,964 226,510 57.354 17794 245148.59016 18,638
2,795 229,187 57.354 17794 178104.4914 51,082
2,623 259,181 57.354 17794 168236.812516 90,944
3,002 190,268 57.354 17794 189943.682479 325
509,827

UTILIZANDO SOLVER
Pando TOTAL a b pronostico error
129 25,418 57.605 17981.489 25418.355 0
37 34,421 57.605 17981.489 20095.034 14,326
39 38,811 57.605 17981.489 20228.102 18,583
775 51,682 57.605 17981.489 62620.024 10,938
425 35,949 57.605 17981.489 42473.376 6,524
120 37,405 57.605 17981.489 24921.220 12,484
0 49,983 57.605 17981.489 17981.489 32,002
54 35,789 57.605 17981.489 21100.249 14,688
141 40,506 57.605 17981.489 26121.937 14,384
456 37,780 57.605 17981.489 44223.660 6,444
1,429 30,593 57.605 17981.489 100284.302 69,691
1,224 30,457 57.605 17981.489 88497.552 58,041
1,536 54,123 57.605 17981.489 106442.405 52,319
1,847 88,836 57.605 17981.489 124402.284 35,566
2,731 179,054 57.605 17981.489 175277.525 3,776
3,964 226,510 57.605 17981.489 246332.913 19,822
2,795 229,187 57.605 17981.489 178994.860 50,192
2,623 259,181 57.605 17981.489 169083.917 90,097
3,002 190,268 57.605 17981.489 190885.960 618
510,496
 y = 57,354x + 17794
R² = 0,7859

VER
AÑO Chuquisaca La Paz Cochabamba Potosí Tarija Santa Cruz Beni
2001 1,904 347 1,158 0 962 20,081 838
2002 1,228 699 713 0 710 30,372 663
2003 1,557 1,234 1,085 0 330 33,895 671
2004 1,267 1,103 1,140 0 568 45,247 1,583
2005 1,511 1,216 1,276 20 1,617 29,015 869
2006 340 470 943 1 686 34,530 314
2007 677 1,627 1,346 5 5,333 40,259 736
2008 568 1,987 1,233 0 980 30,032 935
2009 252 2,143 1,556 0 1,319 34,153 941
2010 299 1,673 1,080 186 1,892 29,827 2,368
2011 353 2,911 596 0 496 22,556 2,251
2012 438 3,620 1,082 0 2,717 19,248 2,128
2013 633 2,256 6,084 0 2,354 38,700 2,560
2014 885 2,179 661 0 1,678 80,044 1,542
2015 144 3,535 607 0 1,224 169,772 1,043
2016 1,727 1,686 1,013 0 2,210 212,550 3,362
2017 794 3,466 1,156 37 5,291 209,329 6,319
2018 5,373 2,639 1,439 0 6,481 228,488 12,139
2019 2,370 3,781 2,042 0 5,043 165,575 8,454

TENDENCIA y = 1311,9x2 - 14701x + 64666

T TOTAL TENDENCIA
1 25,418 51276.9
2 34,421 36575.9
3 38,811 21874.9 en el ananlisis de medias moviles se require variacion en d
4 51,682 7173.9 y en este estudio de caso tenemos datos anuales y tampoco
5 35,949 -7527.1 aplica un estudio de medias moviles
6 37,405 -22228.1
7 49,983 -36929.1
8 35,789 -51630.1
9 40,506 -66331.1
10 37,780 -81032.1
11 30,593 -95733.1
12 30,457 -110434.1
13 54,123 -125135.1
14 88,836 -139836.1
15 179,054 -154537.1
16 226,510 -169238.1
17 229,187 -183939.1
18 259,181 -198640.1
19 190,268 -213341.1
 Pando TOTAL
129 25,418 EL MEJOR R
37 34,421
39 38,811
775 51,682
425 35,949 Chart Title
120 37,405
0 49,983 300000
54 35,789
141 40,506 250000 f(x) = 1311.90643669177 x² − 14700.5655711197 x + 64665.96198047
456 37,780 R² = 0.829152586037171
1,429 30,593 200000
1,224 30,457
1,536 54,123
150000
1,847 88,836 Axis Title
2,731 179,054
3,964 226,510
100000
2,795 229,187
2,623 259,181 50000
3,002 190,268
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Axis Title

oviles se require variacion en datos menores a un año

nemos datos anuales y tampoco existe variacion por tanto no
moviles
itle

.5655711197 x + 64665.9619804785

T
Linear (T)
TOTAL
Polynomial (TOTAL)

2 14 16 18 20