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1. Un jugador marca el 85% de los penaltis que intenta. Si lanza 8 penaltis calcular
la probabilidad de que:
a) Marque 2 penaltis
n=8
x=2
p=0.85
q=1-0.85
=0.15
n!
P ( x) = (p x )(q n−x)
x !∗( n−x )
8
P ( 2 )= (0.852) (0.156)
2!∗( 8−2 )
8 x7 x6 x 5x 4 x 3 x2 x1
P ( 2 )= (0.7225)(0.00001139)
( 2 x 1 )∗( 6 )
8x 7 x6 x5 x 4 x 3x 2x 1
P ( 2 )= (0.000008229)
( 2 x 1 )∗( 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 )
40320
P ( 2 )= (0.000008229)
( 2 )∗( 720 )
40320
P(2)= (0.000008229)
1440
P ( 2 )=0.0002x100
P ( 2 )=0.02 %
n=8
x=6
p=0.85
q=1-0.85
=0.15
n!
P ( x) = (p x )(q n−x)
x !∗( n−x )
8
P ( 6 )= (0.856) (0.152)
6 !∗( 8−6 )
8
P ( 6 )= (0.856) (0.152)
6 !∗( 2 )
8 x7 x 6x 5 x4 x3 x2 x1
P ( 6 )= (0.856) (0.152)
( 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 )∗( 2 x 1 )
40320
P ( 6 )= (0.856) (0.152)
( 720 )∗ ( 2 )
40320
P ( 6 )= (0.3771) (0.0225)
1440
P ( 6 )=28 (0.008485)
P ( 6 )=0.238x100
P ( 6 )=23.8 %
c) Marque 4 penaltis.
n=8
x=4
p=0.85
q=1-0.85
=0.15
n!
P ( x) = (p x )(q n−x)
x !∗( n−x )
8
P ( 4 )= (0.854) (0.158-4)
4 !∗( 8−4 )
8
P ( 4 )= (0.854) (0.154)
( 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 )∗( 4 )
8 x7 x 6x 5 x4 x3 x2 x1
P ( 4 )= (0.522006) (0.000506)
( 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 )∗( 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 )
40320
P ( 4 )= (0.0002641)
576
P ( 4 )=70 (0.0002641)
P ( 4 )=0.0184x100
P ( 4 )=1.84 %
n=5
x=0
p=0.25
q=1-0.25
=0.75
n!
P ( x) = (p x )(q n−x)
x !∗( n−x )
5
P ( 0 )= (0.250) (0.755-0)
0 !∗( 5−0 )
5
P ( 0 )= (1) (0.755)
(1)∗(5 )
5x 4 x 3 x2 x1
P ( 0 )= (1) (0.2373)
(1)∗ (5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 )
120
P ( 0 )= (0.2373)
(1)∗(120 )
120
P ( 0 )= (0.2373)
120
P ( 0 )=1 (0.2373)
P ( 0 )=1 (0.2373)
P ( 0 )=¿ 0.2373x100
P ( 0 )=¿ 23.73%
n=5
x=3
p=0.25
q=1-0.25
=0.75
n!
P ( x) = (p x )(q n−x)
x !∗( n−x )
5
P ( 3 )= (0.253) (0.755-3)
3 !∗(5−3 )
5
P ( 3 )= (0.253) (0.752)
3 !∗(5−3 )
5 x 4 x3 x2 x1
P ( 3 )= (0.01562) (0.5625)
(3 x 2 x 1)∗( 2 x 1 )
5x4
P ( 3 )= (0.01562) (0.5625)
( 2 x 1)
20
P ( 3 )= (0.008786)
2
P ( 3 )=10 (0.008786)
P ( 3 )=¿0.08786x100
P ( 3 )=8.8 %
n=5
x=5
p=0.25
q=1-0.25
=0.75
n!
P ( x) = ( p x )(q n−x)
x !∗( n−x )
5
P ( 5 )= (0.255) (0.755-5)
5 !∗(5−5 )
5
P ( 5 )= (0.255) (0.750)
5 !∗ ( 0 )
5 x 4 x 3x 2x 1
P ( 5 )= (0.255) (1)
(5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1)∗( 1 )
P ( 5 )=1 (0.0009765)
P ( 5 )=¿ 0.0009765x100
P ( 5 )=¿ 0.098%
n!
P ( x) = (p x )(q n−x)
x !∗( n−x )
10
P ( 1 )= (0.051) (0.9510-1)
1!∗( 10−1 )
10 x 9
P ( 1 )= (0.051) (0.959)
(1)∗( 9 )
10
P ( 1 )= (0.05) (0.6302)
1
P ( 1 )=10∗¿ (0.0315)
P ( 1 )=0.315 x100
P ( 1 )=31.5%
n=10
x=7
p=0.05
q=1-0.05
=0.95
n!
P ( x) = (p x )(q n−x)
x !∗( n−x )
10
P ( 7 )= (0.057) (0.9510-7)
7 !∗( 10−7 )
10
P ( 7 )= (0.057) (0.9510-7)
7 !∗( 10−7 )
10 x 9 x 8 x 7
P ( 7 )= (0.057) (0.953)
(7)∗( 3 x 2 x 1 )
720
P ( 7 )= (0.0000000007812) (0.8573)
6
P ( 7 )=120 ( 0.0000000006697)
P ( 7 )=¿0.0000000803X100
P ( 7 )=¿0.000008%