Paso 1: Calacular promedios

Trimestres
Años
I II III
2011 1,700.00 940 2,630.00
2012 1,800.00 900 2,900.00
2013 1,850.00 1,100.00 2,930.00

Paso 2: Calcular indices estacionales= Ventas/promedio

Año I II III
2011 0.87516087516 0.48391248391248 1.35392535393
2012 0.90452261307 0.45226130653266 1.45728643216
2013 0.86752637749 0.5158264947245 1.37397420868
PROMEDIO 0.88240328857 0.48400009505655 1.39506199825

Paso 3: Cálculo de ventas basadas en indices estacionales:

pronóstico: I II III
2011 1926.5567366 1942.14837889685 1885.22087426
2012 2039.88360346 1859.5037670289 2078.76065983
2013 2096.54703689 2272.72682636866 2100.26508045

Paso 4: Desestacionalización de la vestas: Cálculo de fórmula de Regresión Lineal 2,500.00

Ventas
Años Trimestre Periodo 2,000.00
Desest. f(x) = 2
R² = 0.
I 1 1,926.56 1,500.00
Ventas
II 2 1,942.15 1,000.00
2011
III 3 1,885.22 500.00
IV 4 2,018.51
0.00
I 5 2,039.88 0 2

II 6 1,859.50
2012
III 7 2,078.76
IV 8 1,905.48
I 9 2,096.55
II 10 2,272.73
2013
III 11 2,100.27
IV 12 2,139.63
 Fórmula cálculada:

Y= 23.377x + 1870.2

Paso 4: Cálulo de la ventas Proyectas Y= (23.3

b
a

Años Trimestre Periodo:X Ventas

I 13 2,172.59
II 14 2,195.96
2014
III 15 2,219.34
IV 16 2,242.72
I 17 2,266.09
II 18 2,289.47
2015
III 19 2,312.84
IV 20 2,336.22
I 21 2,359.60
II 22 2,382.97
2016
III 23 2,406.35
IV 24 2,429.72
res
Promedio
IV
2,500.00 1,942.50 1700 ventas histori
3500
2,360.00 1,990.00 940
2,650.00 2,132.50
3000
2630
2500
2500
2000 1800
900
1500
IV 2900
1.28700128700129 1000 2360
1.18592964824121 1850
1.24267291910903 500 1100

1.23853461811717 0 2930
0 2650 2 4 6 8

IV
2018.51443103021
1905.47762289252
2139.62529689202
Proyección de Demanda
2,500.00

2,000.00 f(x) = 23.3765034965035 x + 1870.15606060606

R² = 0.470416496641691
1,500.00
Ventas

1,000.00

500.00

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Trimestres
377x + 1870.2
Chart Title
Y= (23.377x + 1870.2)*Indice
4000.00 estacional
3500.00
23.377
3000.00
1870.2
Indice 2500.00
Ventas
estacional Pronosticos 2000.00
proyectadas
Promedio
1500.00
0.882403288572 2,174.10 1918.43
1000.00
0.484000095057 2,197.48 1063.58
500.00
1.395061998254 2,220.86 3098.23
0.00
1.238534618117 2,244.23 2779.56 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

0.882403288572 2,267.61 2000.95

0.484000095057 2,290.99 1108.84
1.395061998254 2,314.36 3228.68
1.238534618117 2,337.74 2895.37
0.882403288572 2,361.12 2083.46
0.484000095057 2,384.49 1154.10
1.395061998254 2,407.87 3359.13
1.238534618117 2,431.25 3011.18
 ventas historicas

2 4 6 8 10 12 14
art Title

6 8 10 12 14
TRIMESTRE 2006 2007 2008
PRIMERO 2 3 2
SEGUNDO 2 4 4
TERCERO 3 5 5
CUARTO 3 4 4

PRIMERO SEGUNDO TERCERO

2006 2 2 3
2007 3 4 5
2008 2 4 5
2009 4 5 7
2010 5 6 8

PRIMERO SEGUNDO TERCERO

2006 0.8 0.8 1.2
2007 0.75 1 1.25
2008 0.53333333 1.06666667 1.33333333333333
2009 0.84210526 1.05263158 1.47368421052632
2010 0.83333333 1 1.33333333333333
PROMEDIO 0.75175439 0.98385965 1.3180701754386

PRIMERO SEGUNDO TERCERO

2006 2.66044341 2.03281027 2.27605483828031
2007 3.99066511 4.06562054 3.79342473046719
2008 2.66044341 4.06562054 3.79342473046719
2009 5.32088681 5.08202568 5.31079462265407
2010 6.65110852 6.09843081 6.0694795687475

Añ VENTAS
os Trimestre Periodo
DESESTAC.
I 1 2.66044340723454

###
 II 2 2.03281027104137
###
III 3 2.27605483828031
IV 4 3.17018909899889
I 5 3.99066511085181
II 6 4.06562054208274
###
III 7 3.79342473046719
IV 8 4.22691879866518
I 9 2.66044340723454
II 10 4.06562054208274
###
III 11 3.79342473046719
IV 12 4.22691879866518
I 13 5.32088681446908
II 14 5.08202567760342
###
III 15 5.31079462265407
IV 16 3.17018909899889
I 17 6.65110851808635
II 18 6.09843081312411
###
III 19 6.0694795687475
IV 20 5.28364849833148

Añ Trimestre Periodo:X Ventas

os

I 21
II 22
###
III 23
IV 24
I 25
II 26
###
III 27
IV 28

x ventas historicas
1 2
2 2
3 3
4 3
5 3
6 4
7 5
8 4
9 2
10 4
11 5
12 4
13 4
14 5
15 7
16 3
17 5
18 6
19 8
20 5
 2009 2010
4 5
5 6
7 8
3 5

CUARTO PROMEDIO
3 2.5 2
4 4 2
4 3.75 3 9 Chart Title
3 4.75 3 8
5 6 3 7
4 6
CUARTO 5
5
1.2 4
4
1 2
3
1.0666666666667 4
0.6315789473684 5 2
0.8333333333333 4 1
0.9463157894737 4 0
0 5 10
5
CUARTO 7
3.1701890989989 3
4.2269187986652 5
4.2269187986652 6
3.1701890989989 8
5.2836484983315 5
 Chart Title
7

6
f(x) = 0.182068025961691 x + 2.28574062180657
5 R² = 0.663552635374301

0
0 5 10 15 20 25

y=0.1821*x+2.2857

a 2.2857
b 0.1821

Indice
estacional Pronostico Ventas
s proyectadas
Promedio Chart Title
0.751754386 6.11 4.59 10.00
9.00
0.9838596491 6.29 6.19 8.00
1.3180701754 6.47 8.53 7.00
6.00
0.9463157895 6.66 6.30 5.00
0.751754386 6.84 5.14 4.00
3.00
0.9838596491 7.02 6.91 2.00
1.3180701754 7.20 9.49 1.00
0.00
0.9463157895 7.38 6.99 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

indices ventas
estacionales y=0.1821*x+2.2857 historicas pronosticos error
 0.751754386 2.4678 2 2.4678 0.4678
0.9838596491 2.6499 2 2.6499 0.6499
1.3180701754 2.832 3 2.832 0.168
0.9463157895 3.0141 3 3.0141 0.0141
0.751754386 3.1962 3 3.1962 0.1962
0.9838596491 3.3783 4 3.3783 0.6217
1.3180701754 3.5604 5 3.5604 1.4396
0.9463157895 3.7425 4 3.7425 0.2575
0.751754386 3.9246 2 3.9246 1.9246
0.9838596491 4.1067 4 4.1067 0.1067
1.3180701754 4.2888 5 4.2888 0.7112
0.9463157895 4.4709 4 4.4709 0.4709
0.751754386 4.653 4 4.653 0.653
0.9838596491 4.8351 5 4.8351 0.1649
1.3180701754 5.0172 7 5.0172 1.9828
0.9463157895 5.1993 3 5.1993 2.1993
0.751754386 5.3814 5 5.3814 0.3814
0.9838596491 5.5635 6 5.5635 0.4365
1.3180701754 5.7456 8 5.7456 2.2544
0.9463157895 5.9277 5 5.9277 0.9277
0.80141
Chart Title

10 15 20 25
art Title

4 5 6 7 8 9
 Chart Title
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Column L Column M
 AÑO
TEMPORADA 1 2
INVIERNO 1400 1200
PRIMAVERA 1500 1400
VERANO 1000 2100
OTOÑO 600 750

INVIERNO PRIMAVERA
1 1400 1500
2 1200 1400
3 1000 1600
4 900 1500

INVIERNO PRIMAVERA
1 1.244 1.333
2 0.881 1.028
3 0.762 1.219
 4 0.750 1.250
PROMEDIO 0.909 1.207

INVIERNO PRIMAVERA
1 1539.70 1242.26
2 1319.74 1159.44
3 1099.78 1325.08
4 989.80 1242.26

Años Temporada Periodo

INVIERNO 1
PRIMAVERA 2
1
VERANO 3
OTOÑO 4
INVIERNO 5
PRIMAVERA 6
2
VERANO 7
OTOÑO 8
INVIERNO 9
PRIMAVERA 10
3
VERANO 11
OTOÑO 12
INVIERNO 13
PRIMAVERA 14
4
VERANO 15
OTOÑO 16

Años Trimestre Periodo:X

INVIERNO 17
PRIMAVERA 18
5
 5
VERANO 19
OTOÑO 20
INVIERNO 21
PRIMAVERA 22
6
VERANO 23
OTOÑO 24

x ventas historicas
INVIERNO 1 1400
PRIMAVERA 2 1500
VERANO 3 1000
OTOÑO 4 600
INVIERNO 5 1200
PRIMAVERA 6 1400
VERANO 7 2100
OTOÑO 8 750
INVIERNO 9 1000
PRIMAVERA 10 1600
VERANO 11 2000
OTOÑO 12 650
INVIERNO 13 900
PRIMAVERA 14 1500
VERANO 15 1900
OTOÑO 16 500
AÑO
3 4
1000 900
1600 1500
2000 1900
650 500

VERANO OTOÑO PROMEDIO

1000 600 1125
2100 750 1362.5
2000 650 1312.5
1900 500 1200

VERANO OTOÑO
0.889 0.533
1.541 0.550
1.524 0.495
 1.583 0.417
1.384 0.499

VERANO OTOÑO
722.37 1202.59
1516.98 1503.23
1444.74 1302.80
1372.51 1002.16

VENTAS
DESESTAC.
1540
1242
722 1800
1203
1600
1320
1159 1400

1517 1200 f(x) = − 3.29025999495094 x + 1277.0575970

1503 1000 R² = 0.005068604902591
1100
800
1325
1445 600
1303 400
990
200
1242
0
1373
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
1002

y=3.2903*x+1277.1
a 1277.1
b 3290.3

Indice estacional Ventas

Ventas Pronosticos
Promedio proyectadas

0.909 57,212 52021

1.207 60,503 73055
 1.384 63,793 88310
0.499 67,083 33469
0.909 70,373 63988
1.207 73,664 88947
1.384 76,954 106530
0.499 80,244 40036

indices estacionales y=3.2903*x+1277.1

0.909270787825834 1280.3903
1.20747597204019 1283.6806
1.38432903742537 1286.9709
0.498924202708606 1290.2612
0.909270787825834 1293.5515
1.20747597204019 1296.8418
1.38432903742537 1300.1321
0.498924202708606 1303.4224
0.909270787825834 1306.7127
1.20747597204019 1310.003
1.38432903742537 1313.2933
0.498924202708606 1316.5836
0.909270787825834 1319.8739
1.20747597204019 1323.1642
1.38432903742537 1326.4545
0.498924202708606 1329.7448
1 1400
1 1500
1 1000 2500
1 600
2 1200 2000
2 1400
2 2100
1500
2 750
3 1000
3 1600 1000
3 2000
3 650
500

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
 1000

500
4 900
4 1500
4 1900 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
4 500

9025999495094 x + 1277.05759709911
68604902591
Column E
Linear (Column E)

6 8 10 12 14 16 18

120000

100000

80000

f(x) = 1379.79356035075 x + 62085.605170172

60000 Column H
R² = 0.01735845277549 Linear (Column H)
40000
 100000

80000

f(x) = 1379.79356035075 x + 62085.605170172

60000 Column H
R² = 0.01735845277549 Linear (Column H)
40000

20000

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

ventas historicas pronosticos error

1400 1280.3903 119.6097
1500 1283.6806 216.3194
1000 1286.9709 286.9709 2500
600 1290.2612 690.2612
1200 1293.5515 93.5515 2000
1400 1296.8418 103.1582
2100 1300.1321 799.8679 1500
750 1303.4224 553.4224
1000 1306.7127 306.7127 f(x) = − 3.23529411764706 x +
1000
R² = 0.000925571789184
1600 1310.003 289.997
2000 1313.2933 686.7067
500
650 1316.5836 666.5836
900 1319.8739 419.8739
0
1500 1323.1642 176.8358 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
1900 1326.4545 573.5455
500 1329.7448 829.7448
425.822575
 Column J

10 12 14 16 18
 Column J

10 12 14 16 18

Column H
Linear (Column H)
 Column H
Linear (Column H)

Column I
3.23529411764706 x + 1277.5 Linear (Column I)
00925571789184

6 8 10 12 14 16 18
 AÑO
TEMPORADA 1 2 3
INVIERNO 73 65 89
PRIMAVERA 104 82 146
VERANO 168 124 205
OTOÑO 74 52 98

INVIERNO PRIMAVERA VERANO

1 73 104 168
2 65 82 124
3 89 146 205
 INVIERNO PRIMAVERA VERANO
1 0.697 0.993 1.604
2 0.805 1.015 1.536
3 0.662 1.086 1.524
PROMEDIO 0.721 1.031 1.555

INVIERNO PRIMAVERA VERANO

1 101.222 100.846 108.071
2 90.129 79.513 79.767
3 123.408 141.572 131.873

VENTAS
Años Temporada Periodo
DESESTAC.
INVIERNO 1 101
PRIMAVERA 2 101
1
VERANO 3 108
OTOÑO 4 107
INVIERNO 5 90
PRIMAVERA 6 80
2
VERANO 7 80
OTOÑO 8 75
INVIERNO 9 123
PRIMAVERA 10 142
3
VERANO 11 132
OTOÑO 12 141
 250

200
OTOÑO PROMEDIO 1 73
74 104.750 1 104
52 80.750 1 168 150
98 134.500 1 74
2 65
100
2 82

50
 150

100

OTOÑO 2 124
0.706 2 52 50

0.644 3 89
0.729 3 146 0
0.693 3 205 0 2 4 6

3 98

OTOÑO
106.780
75.035
141.412
2 4 6 8 10 12 14