PRONÓSTICO REGRESIÓN LINEAL

VENTAS AUTOMOVILES

Ventas
Pronóstico Ventas
Periodo (X) mensuales
(Unidades)
ME MAE MSE Ventas
(Unidades) Y
1760
1 1634 1657.7723 -23.7723 23.7723 565.1222
2 1678 1661.2446 16.7554 16.7554 280.7434 1740
f(x) = 3.4723076923076
3 1678 1664.7169 13.2831 13.2831 176.4407 R² = 0.74801361271828
1720
4 1670 1668.1892 1.8108 1.8108 3.278997
5 1669 1671.6615 -2.6615 2.6615 7.083582 1700
6 1670 1675.1338 -5.1338 5.1338 26.3559 1680
7 1655 1678.6061 -23.6061 23.6061 557.248
8 1681 1682.0784 -1.0784 1.0784 1.162947 1660
9 1700 1685.5507 14.4493 14.4493 208.7823 1640
10 1689 1689.023 -0.023 0.023 0.000529
11 1696 1692.4953 3.5047 3.5047 12.28292 1620
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
12 1723 1695.9676 27.0324 27.0324 730.7506
13 1711 1699.4399 11.5601 11.5601 133.6359
14 1699 1702.9122 -3.9122 3.9122 15.30531
15 1708 1706.3845 1.6155 1.6155 2.60984
16 1689 1709.8568 -20.8568 20.8568 435.0061
17 1691 1713.3291 -22.3291 22.3291 498.5887
18 1734 1716.8014 17.1986 17.1986 295.7918
19 1724 1720.2737 3.7263 3.7263 13.88531
20 1737 1723.746 13.254 13.254 175.6685
21 1699 1727.2183 -28.2183 28.2183 796.2725
22 1717 1730.6906 -13.6906 13.6906 187.4325
23 1739 1734.1629 4.8371 4.8371 23.39754
24 1745 1737.6352 7.3648 7.3648 54.24028
25 1750 1741.1075 8.8925 8.8925 79.07656
26

ME 0.0001
MAE 11.62267
MSE 211.2065
 Ventas mensuales (Unidades) Y
1760

1740
f(x) = 3.47230769230769 x + 1654.3
R² = 0.748013612718283
1720

1700

1680

1660

1640

1620
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múl 0.864877802188426
Coeficiente de determinación 0.748013612718282
R^2 ajustado 0.737057682836468
Error típico 15.1516437290582
Observaciones 25

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF
Regresión 1 15673.9969 15673.9969 68.2747718
Residuos 23 5280.16308 229.572308
Total 24 20954.16

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad

Intercepción 1654.3 6.24718275 264.807365 1.40366E-41
Variable X 1 3.47230769230769 0.42023099 8.26285494 2.45221E-08

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico para Y Residuos

1 1657.77230769231 -23.7723077
2 1661.24461538462 16.7553846
3 1664.71692307692 13.2830769
4 1668.18923076923 1.81076923
5 1671.66153846154 -2.66153846
6 1675.13384615385 -5.13384615
7 1678.60615384615 -23.6061538
8 1682.07846153846 -1.07846154
9 1685.55076923077 14.4492308
10 1689.02307692308 -0.02307692
11 1692.49538461538 3.50461538
12 1695.96769230769 27.0323077
13 1699.44 11.56
14 1702.91230769231 -3.91230769
15 1706.38461538462 1.61538462
16 1709.85692307692 -20.8569231
17 1713.32923076923 -22.3292308
18 1716.80153846154 17.1984615
19 1720.27384615385 3.72615385
20 1723.74615384615 13.2538462
21 1727.21846153846 -28.2184615
22 1730.69076923077 -13.6907692
23 1734.16307692308 4.83692308
24 1737.63538461538 7.36461538
25 1741.10769230769 8.89230769
Valor crítico de F
2.45221E-08

Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
1641.37672 1667.22328 1641.37672 1667.22328
2.60299366 4.34162172 2.60299366 4.34162172