Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.90902441210113
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.82632538179581
R^2 ajustado 0.81434782191966
Error típico 2576.7147041928
Observaciones 32

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 2 916105329.381452 458052664.690726
Residuos 29 192544301.337298 6639458.66680339
Total 31 1108649630.71875

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t

Intercepción -19546.177774911 1279.51946235176 -15.2761863731132
Variable X 1 344.03418572665 38.7772370381585 8.87206546944294
Variable X 2 -30921.544668979 11389.0641067117 -2.71502068820179

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico para Y Residuos Residuos estándares

1 -24340.800496817 1356.80049681675 0.544416784457553
2 -21335.063317176 -2666.93668282431 -1.07010949407929
3 -20211.813173235 -4490.18682676545 -1.80168940059834
4 -19923.629443361 -4604.37055663865 -1.84750567145082
5 -20386.165029273 -3228.83497072659 -1.29557142441442
6 -20842.477195458 -1630.52280454179 -0.654247978472876
7 -18273.910408177 -3020.0895918227 -1.21181225110938
8 -18994.568115649 -1027.43188435075 -0.412257486667877
9 -17361.890162791 -1200.10983720933 -0.481544589718425
10 -18081.22650922 406.226509220363 0.162998562006744
11 -17237.285006389 701.285006388531 0.28139091123719
12 -17111.899341258 858.899341257911 0.344633731073505
13 -17798.318533076 2299.31853307571 0.922602552960149
14 -17901.104652608 2728.10465260756 1.09465316833304
15 -17928.321655295 3271.32165529475 1.31261922491945
16 -16931.169355234 2821.16935523372 1.13199542039523
17 -17724.358106729 4057.35810672855 1.62801669002946
18 -18142.250147871 4725.25014787057 1.89600865956103
19 -14615.40032513 1559.40032512998 0.62571005293786
20 -13559.957649981 967.957649981494 0.388393424479403
21 -14359.547697248 2252.54769724815 0.903835734914776
22 -11626.026197558 -61.9738024423496 -0.0248670149557208
23 -10771.873202268 -599.126797732057 -0.240399885958834
24 -9979.6120132804 -992.387986719577 -0.398196107630955
25 -9448.3438926657 -1076.65610733431 -0.432008727367599
26 -8990.0113450309 -1080.98865496914 -0.433747163974454
27 -7514.2958613243 -2154.70413867572 -0.864575964843304
28 -6387.596440304 -2957.40355969602 -1.18665945368568
29 -6043.995322937 -2934.00467706298 -1.17727064193859
30 -7235.0975569217 2569.09755692173 1.03085150261851
31 -5871.7667665078 1205.76676650776 0.483814435038928
32 -4945.2250792283 1945.22507922826 0.780522401903769
 F Valor crítico de F
68.9894595 9.46623138696479E-12

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%

2.09613E-15 -22163.0889069986 -16929.266643 -22163.088907 -16929.2666428
9.26688E-10 264.725831096202 423.34254036 264.7258311 423.342540357
0.01104567 -54214.7961761754 -7628.2931618 -54214.796176 -7628.29316178

Resultados de datos de probabilidad

Percentil Y
1.5625 -24702
4.6875 -24528
7.8125 -24002
10.9375 -23615
14.0625 -22984
17.1875 -22473
20.3125 -21294
23.4375 -20022
26.5625 -18562
29.6875 -17675
32.8125 -16536
35.9375 -16253
39.0625 -15499
42.1875 -15173
45.3125 -14657
48.4375 -14110
51.5625 -13667
54.6875 -13417
57.8125 -13056
60.9375 -12592
64.0625 -12107
67.1875 -11688
70.3125 -11371
73.4375 -10972
76.5625 -10525
79.6875 -10071
82.8125 -9669
85.9375 -9345
89.0625 -8978
92.1875 -4666
95.3125 -4666
98.4375 -3000
 Variable X 1 Gráfico de los residuales
6000
4000 Variable X 2 Gráfico de los residuales
Residuos

2000
6000
0
-2000 0 Residuos
5 400010 15
Gráfico de probabilidad normal
20 25 30 35 40 45 50
-4000 2000
0 0
-6000 -5000
-2000
0.00% 5.00%0 20
10.00% 40
15.00% 60
20.00% 80 25.00%100 120
-4000 -10000
Variable X 1
-6000 -15000
Y -20000
-25000 Variable X 2
-30000
Muestra percentil
al
100 120
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.354624056294145
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.125758221302513
R^2 ajustado 0.095611953071565
Error típico 6103123.20345858
Observaciones 31

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 1 155384287744001
Residuos 29 1.0801952722612E+15
Total 30 1235579560005242

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción -128515.02530038 3264396.66677084
-24340.8004968168 -435.022306115542 212.990440994559

Análisis de los residuales

Observación Pronóstico 1840907,58816218 Residuos

1 9152713.4200585 -2040162.14986458
2 8664074.55209662 11497703.1871613
3 8538708.2013422 12661520.0214987
4 8739921.49858616 1685453.76960083
5 8938427.46942845 -6279822.85329762
6 7821043.62221372 1299897.52042208
7 8134545.80003811 -7078929.52305757
8 7424294.47184157 -5984030.85047498
9 7737221.82813814 -7572201.85134478
10 7370088.44934962 -6878287.78916426
11 7315542.88815067 -6577834.80973739
12 7614150.54793721 -2327284.83139179
13 7658864.80269263 -216309.807113598
14 7670704.80596716 3030840.56643319
15 7236921.3128462 722075.218063668
16 7581976.11270638 8880178.69352946
17 7763768.47215131 14564220.4877995
18 6229510.12893951 -3797780.75492403
19 5770369.02242366 -4833427.01026596
20 6118208.52873264 -1044237.4003547
21 4929065.70212086 -4925224.9499317
22 4557490.09633443 -4198537.17657376
23 4212838.80685524 -3228004.8906699
24 3981725.32385975 -2822536.95039948
25 3782340.44201983 -2613803.96984783
26 3140371.28912738 1502378.6360989
27 2650231.90869609 6096003.90620662
28 2500757.75823523 6107625.68679223
29 3018913.79888264 3581348.45809856
30 2425834.49443843 -971960.999223854
31 2022768.19292591 1761132.41593268
E= 10*R2

Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F

155384287744001 4.17160162 0.050292118452
37248112836594.5

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%
-0.0393686914977486 0.96886622 -6804955.851859 6547925.8013 -6804955.8519 6547925.80126
-2.0424499056587 0.05029212 -870.6366695285 0.5920572974 -870.63666953 0.59205729745
 -24340,8004968168 Gráfico de los
residuales
20000000
10000000
Residuos

0
-10000000

-24340,8004968168
 PIB (US$ a
precios Inflación,
Migración
actuales) precios al
Años neta Y ESTIMADO
Miles de consumidor
(personas)
Millones de (% anual)
Dolares

1991 -22984 5.34 21.45% -24340.8004968168

1992 -24002 5.64 12.06% -21335.0633171757
1993 -24702 5.73 8.53% -20211.8131732346
1994 -24528 5.98 7.87% -19923.6294433614
1995 -23615 6.72 10.19% -20386.1650292734
1996 -22473 7.4 12.43% -20842.4771954582
1997 -21294 7.93 4.71% -18273.9104081773
1998 -20022 8.5 7.67% -18994.5681156492
1999 -18562 8.29 2.16% -17361.8901627907
2000 -17675 8.4 4.61% -18081.2265092204
2001 -16536 8.14 1.59% -17237.2850063885
2002 -16253 7.91 0.93% -17111.8993412579
2003 -15499 8.08 3.34% -17798.3185330757
2004 -15173 8.77 4.44% -17901.1046526076
2005 -14657 9.55 5.39% -17928.3216552947
2006 -14110 11.45 4.28% -16931.1693552337
2007 -13667 13.12 8.71% -17724.3581067285
2008 -13417 16.67 14.01% -18142.2501478706
2009 -13056 17.34 3.35% -14615.40032513
2010 -12592 19.65 2.50% -13559.9576499815
2011 -12107 23.96 9.88% -14359.5476972481
2012 -11688 27.08 4.52% -11626.0261975577
2013 -11371 30.66 5.74% -10771.8732022679
2014 -10972 32.99 5.77% -9979.61201328042
2015 -10525 33 4.06% -9448.34389266569
2016 -10071 33.94 3.62% -8990.01134503086
2017 -9669 37.51 2.82% -7514.29586132428
2018 -9345 40.29 2.27% -6387.59644030398
2019 -8978 40.9 1.84% -6043.99532293702
2020 -4666 36.63 0.94% -7235.09755692173
2021 -4666 40.41 0.74% -5871.76676650776
2022 -3000 44.01 1.75% -4945.22507922826

Paso 2 obtener los e2 y los y estimados

B0 -19546.1778 Paso 3 estimar los errores e2 como Y, los estimados como X
B1 344.034186
B2 -30921.5447 Y
 Paso 4 Obtener R2

Coeficiente de determinación R^2

E=

Chi cuadrado

4.02426308 < 3.84145882069412

EL ESTALIGRAFO ES MAYOR A LA DISTRIBUCION, no se acepta H0

 Residual e2

1356.800497 1840907.59
-2666.93668 7112551.27
-4490.18683 20161777.7
-4604.37056 21200228.2
-3228.83497 10425375.3
-1630.5228 2658604.62
-3020.08959 9120941.14
-1027.43188 1055616.28
-1200.10984 1440263.62
406.2265092 165019.977
701.2850064 491800.66
858.8993413 737708.078
2299.318533 5286865.72
2728.104653 7442555
3271.321655 10701545.4
2821.169355 7958996.53
4057.358107 16462154.8
4725.250148 22327989
1559.400325 2431729.37
967.95765 936942.012
2252.547697 5073971.13
-61.9738024 3840.75219
-599.126798 358952.92
-992.387987 984833.916
-1076.65611 1159188.37
-1080.98865 1168536.47
-2154.70414 4642749.93
-2957.40356 8746235.81
-2934.00468 8608383.45
2569.097557 6600262.26
1205.766767 1453873.5
1945.225079 3783900.61

y estimados
e2 como Y, los estimados como X

X
0.125758221

4.024263082 (estaligrafo)