Protocol Final - Odelys Hernandez

Running head: COVID Impact on Belize Economy: Inflation 1
Tecnológico Nacional de México
Instituto Tecnológico de Chetumal
Investigation Project
Covid-19 impact on Belize`s economy by examining the Inflation in Pre- and Post-Covid.
Odelys X. Hernández
Public Accountant Department, Instituto Tecnológico de Chetumal
Dr. Robert López Beltran
May 17, 2023

COVID-19 IMPACT ON BELIZE´S ECONOMY: INFLATION 2
Resumen
Belice, al igual que otros países del mundo, sufrió grandes cambios debido a la pandemia,
muchos sucumbieron a una gran depresión. Hasta la fecha, muchos países siguen trabajando
con meticulosas estrategias para superar el impacto que el COVID-19 tuvo en sus economías.
Esta investigación analiza el impacto económico que tuvo el COVID-19 en el país de Belice a
partir de la variable económica de la inflación recogida en las estadísticas de 2019 a 2022. El
enfoque principal es analizar cómo los protocolos establecidos, la falta de fronteras, el cambio
en los salarios y el desempleo afectaron la tasa de inflación. El Producto Interior Bruto tuvo un
crecimiento negativo durante los dos últimos años en comparación con otros países. La tasa de
desempleo aumentó considerablemente, lo que provocó que la tasa de inflación continuara su
efecto ascendente. Se utilizó el análisis de datos para analizar los datos recogidos de las fuentes
de información fiables del Instituto de Estadística de Belice y de otras investigaciones
realizadas en países del Caribe y de América Latina.
Palabras clave: Pandemia, Economía, Desempleo, Inflación, Precio
Abstract
Like other countries worldwide, Belize suffered great changes due to the pandemic, and many
succumbed to a great depression. Nowadays, countries are still working with meticulous
strategies to overcome the impact COVID-19 had on their economies. This research analyzes the
economic impact COVID-19 had on the country of Belize based on the economic variable of
inflation gathered from 2019 to 2022 statistics. The main focus is to analyze how the protocols
established, the lacking of borders, the change in wages, and the unemployment affected the
inflation rate. The Gross Domestic Product performed a negative growth during the last two
years compared to other countries. The unemployment rate increased considerably which
caused the inflation rate to continue on its rising effect. Data analysis was used to analyze the
data gathered from the reliable information sources of the Statistical Institute of Belize and
other investigations
from the Caribbean and Latin American countries.
Keywords: Pandemic, Economy, Unemployment, Inflation, Price

Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction................................................................................................................5
Antecedents.................................................................................................................................6
Problem Statement.....................................................................................................................7
Question of Investigation...........................................................................................................8
Specific Question of investigation.............................................................................................8
Objectives....................................................................................................................................8
General Objectives:................................................................................................................8
Specific Objectives:................................................................................................................8
Justification.................................................................................................................................8
Hypothesis...................................................................................................................................9
General Hypothesis:...............................................................................................................9
Limitations..................................................................................................................................9
Chapter 2: Literature Review.....................................................................................................11
Conceptual Framework...........................................................................................................12
Belize......................................................................................................................................12
Economic Variables..............................................................................................................12
Gross Domestic Product......................................................................................................12
Unemployment Rate.............................................................................................................13
Inflation.................................................................................................................................13
Referential Framework...........................................................................................................14
Factors that affect inflation.................................................................................................14
Supply and demand..............................................................................................................14
Unemployment......................................................................................................................16
Inflation effect in United States of America.......................................................................17
Historical inflation rates in comparison............................................................20
Ukraine and Russia War.....................................................................................................21
The Impact of Inflation on the Poor...........................................................................................23
Contextual Framework............................................................................................................24
Pre-Covid-19.........................................................................................................................24
During Pandemic..................................................................................................................24
Post-Pandemic......................................................................................................................29
Historical inflation rates in comparison............................................................31
Chapter 3: Methodology.............................................................................................................32
Research Approach..................................................................................................................33
Investigation Type....................................................................................................................33
Subject of Research..................................................................................................................33
Population.................................................................................................................................33
Research Sample......................................................................................................................33
Research Instruments..............................................................................................................33
Research Method......................................................................................................................33
Chapter 4: Results.......................................................................................................................35
Results and Findings............................................................................................................36
Chapter 5: Conclusion.................................................................................................................41
Conclusion.................................................................................................................................42
Reference...................................................................................................................................43
Appendix...................................................................................................................................46
Chapter 1:
Introduction
Antecedents
In the world several diseases registered before Covid-19 that caused tremendous effects
on the economy. The initial case of COVID-19 in China in December 2019, erupted worldwide
in March 2020; it infected many in a short period, causing new protocols, plans, and measures to
be applied for the wealth being of human. The economic crisis associated with the COVID-19
pandemic is extraordinary in many ways.
First, it started as a health crisis, not a financial or economic crisis, and let to an unusual
series. Second, the epidemics impact on the economy was extremely sudden a cruel. Specifically,
a record 22 million U.S workers filed for unemployment during the four weeks in the second half
of March 2020. In contrast, the financial crisis of 2007 was slow going, with the full impact on
the real economy only being felt for several months. Third, the COVID-19 crisis is characterized
by a high degree of uncertainty about its duration and impact on the economy in the medium to
long term (Campanile et al., 2020)
On March 20, 2020, after the first COVID-19 case on the island of San Pedro, Belize
initiated protocols such as lockdown and curfew to be administered to avoid the spread of the
disease. During this period many persons were laid away from their employment hurting the
unemployment rate to 7.7% in April 2020. The unemployment sector was triggered in September
2020 by a 13.8% rise with heavy job losses in the services sector (Economic Commission for
Latin American Countries [ECLAC], 2020). In 2021, the unemployment rate stood at 9.2%
reflecting a decrease when compared to 2020.
During the last quarter of 2019, the Gross Domestic Product declined by 0.4% due to
decreased production within the primary and secondary sectors (Statistical Institute of Belize
[SIB], 2019). Culminating the year 2020, Belize experienced a fall in the GDP of 14.0% 2020,
the decline was caused by a lack of tourism arrivals and the debts succumbed to contain the
coronavirus disease pandemic (SIB, 2020). Increments in the GDP started to reflect positive
outcomes until the start of the last quarter in 2021.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Belize is measured at the start of the second week of
each month. Hence the distortion of goods and services was reflected in the CPI measure of
April 2020 but since there was the State of Emergency in April, the CPI was measured by the
end of March 2020. Some of the items considered for inflation measure rise while others
decreased, this balanced off the result for the first quarters of 2020. After the hit of the
pandemic, there was a combined adverse caused by the outbreak and the weather. This affected
the production in the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors.
The primary activity fell by 2.4%, owing to reduced global demand and the inflation
remained subdued at 0.1% in the last quarter of 2019 creating a slight inflation intensification in
2020 with the highest rate presented in October 2020 of 0.5% inflation increase. The highest
inflation rate was 5.7% in October 2021 (ECLAC, 2020). When the pandemic hit, the basic
needs changed making a change in the demand and supply of many items that were highly
necessitated causing twinkling effects in the inflation rate.
The recent virus assured us that the nation’s economic stability is threatened when
infectious diseases are easily spread. Countless researchers have examined the economic impact
it had on the world. Many focused their studies on one area at a time to understand the effects of
COVID-19. This report offers an overview of the economic effect of the pandemic on the
Country of Belize by using the economic variable of inflation and collecting data from various
authentic sources and focusing on how the inflation of Belize changed with the mission of
constructing an analysis of COVID-19 from its start-up to August 2022.
Problem Statement
The coronavirus disease led Belize to the largest contraction faced in decades. Belize had
the minor COVID-19 cases in Central America until July when cases significantly surged in the
last quarter of 2020 (Martin et al., 2020). The economy was contracted owing to significant
falloffs in tourism, manufacturing, and distribution and a decline in agriculture, employment
losses, etc. These activities resulted in higher unemployment in 2020, which persisted into 2021.
Inflation rose to 0.3% between September 2020 and September 2021, generating high food,
health, and housing costs.
However, the CPI measure was based on basket items not demanded during Covid-19
from September 2019 to September 2020. Because of the pandemic, the fiscal deficit grew from
3.4 percent of GDP in 2019´s first quarter to 11.0 percent of GDP in the same period of 2020.
Inflation is an economic variable that reduces purchasing power and thus the number of items
that can be bought; as a result, customers were encouraged to spend and stock up on products
that depreciate more gradually over time. Inflation decreases borrowing costs and lowers
unemployment.
Question of Investigation
¿What economic changes did Belize face as a result of inflation during the pandemic comparing
sources gathered from 2019 up to 2022?
Specific Question of investigation

¿What caused Belize to face a rise in inflation, was it its unemployment, the post-effect of
vaccines, lack of tourism, or the rise in the price of all goods and services globally?
¿How do they affect the cost of living of Belizeans?
Objectives
General Objectives:
Evaluate how the Inflation rate stood during the pandemic, how the consumer index price
was affected and the unemployment rate pushed the country`s Gross Domestic Product and the
economy`s financial stability to face uncertainty in Belize.
Specific Objectives:
-Analyze the statistical data gathered in 2019’s Census before the pandemic up to August
2022 after the pandemic’s most critical waves.
-Dissect the consequences to consumers` purchase capacity due to index prices.
-Scrutinize how unemployment affected or helped the country of Belize economically.
-Detect what triggered the economy to present decreases and increases in depth during
the pandemic
-Analyze what other factors may have also affected the inflation rate
-Research on how other countries were affected by the pandemic and compare the
findings with those of Belize.
Justification
Investigations have been made about how the health sector was affected and what effect
tourism presented in Belize during the pandemic. Many have also been focused on the problem
of inflation and the overall effects to the economic environment of other countries. However,
there is no investigation focused on the complete effect COVID-19 created on the economy of
Belize during the hit of the first, second, and third waves or when the variants came into effect.
The research is concentrated on either only 2019 before the pandemic, or the economic
impact presented in 2020 and there is a lacked on comparing both the before and the after of
what occurred overall during the entire pandemic period up to the present with the inflation and
how this affecting the economic environment in which we are living. What occurred and how the
economy was affected plays a vital role in Belize`s history for future generations. With this
investigation, a closer analysis will be given on the effects of inflation considering the aspects
that caused movements on variables included in the CPI measures.
There is a lack of resources similar to compare and contrast existing presently in Belize,
but with the use of the information generated in the Statistical Institute of Belize obtained by
censuses from 2019 to August 2022, and other researches. However, the CPI measure during the
first months of the pandemic doesn’t accurately calculate the CPI. Products that were demanded
highly were not included in the basket. The research contains enough reliable information
analyze of how the economy was affected during that period.
It is of real importance to foment this investigation for future reference to outline an
extensive examination of what occurred and how the economy was affected since it plays a vital
role in Belize’s history for future generations. Individuals have a narrow knowledge of how the
country stood during the pandemic and the whys and hows of the upsurge in prices of specific
goods and services. In this research, the main focus is to analyze and highlight how the use of the
inflation rate caused the effects.
Hypothesis
General Hypothesis:
The main factor to the high inflation rate in Belize during COVID-19 was due to higher
cost of production and raw materials caused merely as an effect of the lock downs from the
pandemic.
Limitations
Since Belize is an underdeveloped country, the availability of sources is scarce. Other
countries such as Mexico, Peru, Panama, United States etc. have more sources to depend on. In
this case, the immediate source encountered for the creation of this investigation is the Belize
Statistical Institute. The analysis is based on the results of the Census made in 2019, before the
pandemic started, up to the Census done in December 2021. However, the Census of 2019 is
incomplete, since there are months not published on the official website of the Statistical
Institute of Belize.
There is a lack of previous studies and minimum access to data made on Belize on this
topic in this specific area. There are many other research papers on this topic in other countries
but as per Belize, the availability of research similar to this is limited. The information merely
has to be fabricated and that entails spending more time on lecturing in order to find adequate
information to be added in this research. There is also interesting information that could be an
asset to this research but it is published on unreliable sites that don’t include the author’s name or
the date published and are based more on opinions than facts.
Chapter 2: Literature
Review
Conceptual Framework
Belize
In the book Guyana and Belize country studies, Belize is best defined by Bolland (1993)
as follows:
Belize is a Caribbean-coast country in northern Central America. It is bordered on the

north by the Mexican state of Quintana Roo, on the west by the Guatemalan department
of Petén, and the south by the Guatemalan department of Izabal. The country has a total
land area of 22,960 square kilometers. Belize is shaped like a rectangle, with a total land
boundary length of 516 kilometers that stretches roughly 280 kilometers north-south and
100 kilometers east-west. The undulating courses of two rivers, the Hondo and the
Sarstoon define much of a country's northern and southern boundaries.
When compared to neighboring countries, Belize is a small country with a unique shape
that encompasses many natural riches such as the coral and other Mayan ruins. Due to its history,
Belize is the sole speaking country surrounded by all other Latin American countries in the entire
geographic region of Central America.
Economic Variables
Various Economists have a different list of what can affect the overall performance of a
country`s economy it can be measured by different economic variables. When looking for high
rates of output and consumption growth, three macroeconomic variables are especially
important: GDP, unemployment, and inflation rate.
Gross Domestic Product.

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was created decades ago and is a fundamental
indication of economic policy. It is given by the sum of all final products and services generated
by productive elements operating in a territory for a set period, usually one year. It does not
reflect a country's wealth, but rather its industrial output, demonstrating the capacity to generate
revenue over time. In other words, some people regard GDP as simply one metric in a more
extensive collection of economic accounts, such as the national income accounts (Coyle, 2017).
The Gross domestic product is a flow variable commonly used in the economy. It
provides a snapshot of a country`s economy and is used to calculate the size of an
economy and rate of growth. It is a tendency to hear the term in newspapers, news,
business community, and government reports. A country's economy cannot be measured
without using this variable since it plays an imperative role in determining how healthy
the country’s economy is. The higher the GDP the better the economy.
Unemployment Rate
Another commonly used phrase is unemployment, which rises during recessions and falls
during expansions. It includes all people over a certain age who were: unemployed during the
time frame, that is, not in paid employment or self-employment; currently available for work,
that is, available for gainful employment as well as self-employment during the period under
consideration; and actively looking for work, that is, had taken concrete steps in the recent past
to seek compensated employment or self-employment (OECD, 2003).
It should only be used in the context of a wage-earning job. It is individuals of the

professional, employer, or salaried classes who are occasionally unemployed, either by choice or
need. In contrast to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the unemployment rate can best be
defined as follows:
The unemployment rate for any group is defined as the number of unemployed persons
expressed as a percentage of the labor force including both employed and unemployed.
One major usage is as an indicator of the economy's performance as one measure of the
fraction of the labor force that is underutilized. A high unemployment rate indicates that
there are few job opportunities in an oversupplied labor market. A low unemployment
rate implies a rigid labor market, a prospective lack of skilled labor, and projected cost
pressures from worker wage demands (Australian Bureau of Statistics [ABS], 2018).
Back in history, we can find different types of unemployment and how it has affected the
economy of different countries as well as information on how the term "unemployment"
emerged. Nevertheless, it can be summarized that people who are not working but are actively
searching for work are what determine the unemployment rate.
Inflation
In general, the term inflation is a change in the price of goods, it refers to an increase in
price and not a decrease due that normally prices tend to escalate. At the same time, the growth
in the price of services and goods is generated and sustained for a while that is what we know as
inflation (Lazzati, 2015). Another well-defined implication is that inflation is a generalized
superfluous demand in the goods market, which in turn is a consequence of the authorities`
attempt to push the economy below the rate that arises from the free action of demand and
supply in the goods market (Mira, 2014).
In economic concepts, inflation is defined as a long-term increase in the overall scale of

the price of goods and services in a given economy. It is also known as a decline in the real value
of money, or a loss of spending power in the medium of exchange, which also serves as the
monetary unit of account. Each unit of currency buys fewer goods and services as the general
price level rises (Schwartz, 2009). The Consumer Price Index tracks the increase in the values of
a set of goods and services purchased by households (SIB, 2019).
The three economic variables are linked to one another. The inflation rate allows price of
goods and services to either increase or decrease. The unemployment rate also alters the inflation
rate hence whenever one increases the other one is affected as well. The inflation affects the
Gross Domestic Product due to the cause that when the inflation rate rises, people spend more
and causes the GDP to grow.
Referential Framework
Factors that affect inflation
Inflation measures how fast the prices of goods and services rise. When inflation occurs
and the prices of basic necessities such as food rise, it can have negative impacts on the
economy. It can occur in almost any product or service, including need-based spending on
housing, food, tourism, hospitality, aviation, textile, agriculture, construction, jewelry, and start-
ups, all of which contribute significantly to the economy (Seetharaman, 2020). As inflation
dominates the economy, the prospect of further inflation becomes a major concern for both
consumers and businesses.
Supply and demand

There are various factors that can affect prices and inflation in the economy. Inflation
usually results from rising production costs or increased demand for products and services. It can
be categorized depending on how it was created and how much it rose. According to Pettinger,
inflation can be banged into two orders demand-pull inflation and cost-full inflation. Demand-
pull inflation occurs when demand is high and supply is low, and cost-full inflation occurs when
the price of raw materials skyrockets, generating a domino effect on the price of commodities
(Pettinger, T. 2021).
In 2020, when the vaccines came into effect, numerous countries started experimenting
with demand-pull inflation due that after the vaccinations the economy began to open slowly, but
after the rapid-fire- fire pace of vaccines executed, there was a high demand for goods and
supplies that had been on recess during the lockdowns hence due to the limited vacuity a pulling
effect was displayed. In Mexico in 2020, the federal Health Secretariat announced a temporary
closure of demesne, colosseums, bars, beaches, and places of idolization due to the start of phase
3 of COVID-19. Finalizing the year, the inflation rate was at 3.2% compared to 2.8% in 2019.
(ECLAC, 2020).
After the performance of vaccines, a pulling effect on prices arises due to the
retrenchment in domestic demand and force but numerous attainability of goods. Authors mainly
give a phrase to this scenario, “too many dollars chasing too few goods”. During the pandemic
the demand for face masks, hand sanitizers, cleaning supplies, flu medicines, gloves, etc. was in
high demand hence the aggregate supply and demand were unbalanced and the high demand
triggered the surge in the worth of goods.
Likewise, Cost-Push inflation also plays a vital role in the inflation phenomenon. Prices
always tend to change when there is a rise in production cost, exchange rate pressures, and
international price pressures. The post-COVID recovery just as the significant growth in demand
led many countries to substantiate cost-push inflation. According to Torres, as a cause of the
post-covid, Peru augmented commodity prices as the prices for crude oil mainly because it had
proliferation on international markets (Torres, 2021).
When production stops, the desire and ability to consume remains, but the ability and
willingness to buy remains, creating demand pressures that lead to disruptions in global trade at
this point, container shortages, and soaring raw material prices. After vaccination, all of this
caused inflation to rise rapidly in most developed countries, such as the United States, and in
emerging countries such as Colombia, Peru and Mexico to levels not seen in at least 40 years
(Reyes, 2022).
Since the start of the pandemic, many businesses desisted exertion due to the protocols
established. None essential businesses were closed, creating a high demand for certain goods and
services which included commodities needs analogous as utility, transportation, entertainment,
labor, healthcare, etc., this touched off a general growth in prices and a tumble in the acquiring
value of capitalist.
Categorizing the witnessed inflation is not always an easy task because it is not always
known whether its demand-pull or cost-push Inflation triggered an inflation upswing since the
shocks to the prices may not only depend on either one factor but can also depend on both. Some
hypotheses incorporate both demand and supply-side feedback pathways for inflation. There are
multitudinous necessary possibilities to sorts of inflation theories, and these are all defined by
various aspects referring to price increases.
Unemployment
Often, we tend to believe that employment and inflation have little or no link together,
but the relationship between both is complex, both work hand in hand and are the economic
indicators mostly studied when analyzing the Gross domestic product of a country. According to
McCallum, whenever there is a change in the unemployment rate above the normality, there is an
unfavorable change in the inflation rate. On the contrary when there is an employment rate below
normality, the inflation rate tends to rise. Whenever there is unemployment, the demand for jobs
is at a high peak and the availability of it is really low (McCallum, 2008).
During the pandemic, one of the causes of inflation highlighted worldwide was
unemployment. According to Taylor, in his book inflation, unemployment, and monetary policy,
he declares that other researchers have assumed that the inflation and unemployment rates more
than likely will always average the same amount due that whenever the inflation rate rises,
people adjust to having a standard of living as if thou inflation would have been at zero percent.
(Maher et al., 2022).
In his analysis, he presents six different years to analyze if this hypothesis is correct.
However, when the unemployment rate and the inflation rate were placed side by side, it was
concluded that the high rates inflation rate did not cause lower rates of unemployment. However,
rising wages often tend to intensify inflation due that companies presenting an increase in
expenses, and to ease the shock, they raise prices on goods and services (Bennett, 2008).
Economists have long tried to explain short-term movements in inflation in terms of levels Tight
or loose labor market. The unemployment rate has been the standard measure of labor market.
The unemployment rate remained the most common measure of tightness in labor market up
until the pandemic.
According to Leigh et al., (2022) economists assumed that the effect of unemployment on
inflation was linear and fairly small during pandemic, based on estimates from the pre-pandemic
era of stable inflation. Ball and others (2021a), for example, predicted that if the unemployment
rate fell to 1.5 percent, core inflation would rise only to 2.9 percent. However as of September
2022, CPI inflation fell from the previous 12 month was 8.2 percent in United States of America.
CHANGE IN WORTH OF DOLLAR

A pivotal factor in inflation is the price purchasing power of currency which denotes
when the price of goods has increased and lower goods are bought.
CHANGE IN SALARY
Before COVID-19 was spread, multitudinous countries' inflation rate was harmonious
and was only affected temporarily due to common causes such as rising wages, public spending,
etc. It can also be caused due to advanced wages, augmented consumer confidence or rising
house prices, etc.
United States of America’s Inflation
The COVID-19 epidemic adversely affected the economic causing $54 billion in
economic damage worldwide against the environment of low inflation, low interest rates and
bleak growth prospects [Abdeldafi, et al. (2022)]. One of the countries that witnessed historic
inflation since the economy began to reopen in 2021 subsequently after the COVID-10 lockdown
in United States of America (figure 1).
Source: ECLAC Washington Office, Based on data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics
The first case of COVID-19 presented in USA was in January 20, 2020 (ECLACa, 2022).
The chain bottleneck started with the pandemic due to lockdowns, sick workers, and halted
transport between other factors. These were made worse by the push arising from increased
demand caused by expansionary fiscal and monetary policies; consequently, supply and demand
factors played a key role in the surge of prices post COVID-19. Agarwal and Kimball (2022)
point out five key drivers: (1) supply chain bottlenecks, (2) a shift in demand towards goods and
away from services, (3) aggregate stimulus and post-pandemic recovery, (4) a shock to labour
supply as labour market disruptions from the pandemic continue even two years after it began,
and (5) supply shocks to energy and food because of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine.
The scope of the COVID-19 pandemic was unprecedented in the modern era. So was the
United States government’s policy response. The United States borrowed, lent, and spent
trillions of dollars to keep the economy from plunging further than it did and to accelerate
recovery. These actions were at the centre of the unusual nature of both the pandemic recession
and the recovery. At the same time, the Federal Reserve pursued a very accommodative
monetary policy, including interest rates near zero and trillions of dollars in asset purchases that
eased credit. These policies have come under scrutiny after prices started to surge in 2021.
The scope of the COVID-19 widespread was uncommon within the modern era. So was
the United States government's approach reaction, they borrowed, loaned, and went through
trillions of dollars to keep the economy from diving encourage than it did and to quicken the
recuperation. These activities were at the centre of the abnormal nature of both the widespread
subsidence and the recuperation. At the same time, the Federal Save sought after an awfully
accommodative money related approach, counting intrigued rates close zero and trillions of
dollars in resource buys that facilitated credit. These arrangements have come beneath
examination after costs begun to surge in 2021.
Source: ECLAC Washington Office, Based on data from the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics
Another factor that made a great impact in the inflation is the unemployment that USA
faced during the pandemic, the percentage was high just as how it was for other countries.
Nonetheless, unemployment recovered from a high of 14.7% in April 2020 to 3.8% in February
2022.
On another note, countries experienced uncertainty in the financing of the vaccines.
However, in March, 2021 the vaccines were implemented in Belize with was processed through
the assistance of the Pan American Health Organization, UNICEF and other organizations that
ensured the vaccine was available to all countries. When the vaccines were implemented, aside
from their effectiveness of reducing the disease, the cost of medical care was also adverted.
According to Deogaonkar, in his study in 2012, a vaccine is helpful for the productivity of
human mankind since this helps the health being of the individual and this can create a better
production in the work field. After the implementation of the vaccine, many returned back to the
work field and this increased the economic faced by the pandemic.
Figure 2 Global WHO Region total Vaccines (Source: WHO)
HOW WAS INFLATION AFFECTED IN OTHER COUNTRIES?
Yea
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
r
6.849
2023 7.910% 7.619%
%
7.454 7.817
2022 7.070% 7.280% 7.683% 7.653% 7.986% 8.151% 8.695% 8.700% 8.407% 7.797% 7.896%
% %
4.667 7.355
2021 3.535% 3.759% 6.085% 5.894% 5.879% 5.806% 5.592% 6.000% 6.240% 7.375% 5.689%
% %
3.249 3.150
2020 3.238% 3.696% 2.148% 2.837% 3.334% 3.623% 4.048% 4.014% 4.087% 3.332% 3.397%
% %
4.004 2.829
2019 4.366% 3.940% 4.413% 4.282% 3.947% 3.781% 3.162% 2.998% 3.020% 2.974% 3.636%
% %
United
States
Historical inflation rates in comparison

Year Mexico Ø EU Ø USA Ø World
2021 5.69 % 2.55 % 4.70 % 3.50 %
2020 3.40 % 0.50 % 1.23 % 1.92 %
2019 3.64 % 1.63 % 1.81 % 2.19 %
2018 4.90 % 1.74 % 2.44 % 2.44 %
2017 6.04 % 1.43 % 2.13 % 2.19 %
2016 2.82 % 0.18 % 1.26 % 1.55 %
2015 2.72 % -0.06 % 0.12 % 1.43 %
2014 4.02 % 0.20 % 1.62 % 2.35 %
2013 3.81 % 1.22 % 1.46 % 2.62 %

2012 4.11 % 2.66 % 2.07 % 3.73 %
2011 3.41 % 3.29 % 3.16 % 4.82 %
Data basis: International Monetary Fund, World Bank and OECD Inflation CPI indicator
(doi:10.1787/eee82e6e-en)
Ukraine and Russia War

After the pandemic, Fed Chair Powell predicted that the increase of inflation would be
“neither particularly large nor persistent.” (Powell, 2021). However, as inflation began to rise in
March 2021, it was derived that inflation rate changed completely to rates not expected and
much caused due to the Ukraine war. The war is an event that changed the economy for Russia
and Ukraine but also caused changes globally. The rise of the barrel of oil rose to $100 a barrel,
as well, European, which depends directly from Russia to supply natural gas, surged prices by
almost 70%.
Oil importers faced headwinds from rising prices. Oil production equals oil consumption,
so more expensive oil is nearly neutral to GDP. Nonetheless higher oil prices hurt all countries
even U.S. consumers while helping a more limited segment of businesses and workers associated
with the oil and gas industry. Rising prices also add to inflation, in the US, Europe and other
advanced economies.
The war devastated the global economy, especially the energy and food markets,
squeezing supplies and pushing prices to unprecedented levels. Compared to other economic
regions, the Eurozone was particularly vulnerable to the economic impact of Russia's invasion of
Ukraine due to the Eurozone's heavy reliance on energy imports, which accounted for more than
half of the Eurozone's energy consumption. Moreover, before the war, Russia was an important
energy supplier to the Eurozone and other countries.
Energy inflation was the most important driver of inflation in 2022, while food inflation
recently made the largest contribution. Food prices in January 2023 increased by 14.1% year-on-
year. Due that food production is so energy intensive, high food inflation partially reflect the
indirect and delayed effects of high energy prices, in which war played a key role. Prices of food
items such as wheat (flour, bread and pasta ingredients) and oilseeds, for which imports from
Ukraine and Russia played an important role before the war, recorded well-above-average
inflation. For example, sunflower oil and other cooking oils were more than 47% more expensive
for Eurozone consumers in January 2023 than they were a year ago (Arce et al., 2023).
According to Caldara, geopolitical risk following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in
2022 had non-negligible macroeconomic implications. Compared to the counterfactual no-war
model, this model assumed that war reduced the level of global GDP by about 1.5% and
increased global inflation by about 1.3 percentage points. The negative impact of geopolitical
risk in this model lead to lower consumer sentiment, higher commodity prices and tighter
financial conditions. Moreover, firm-level indicators suggested that the European economy
would likely be hit hardest, especially in manufacturing. (Caldara et al., 2022)
On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded and occupied parts of Ukraine in a major
escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war that began in 2014. The invasion killed tens of
thousands on both sides and sparked the largest refugee crisis since World War II.
HOW IS THE INFLATION CALCULATED?

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most
common and widely utilized measure to calculate inflation every month; it’s predicted on a fixed
handbasket of goods and services of common items such as vegetables, petroleum, meats,
clothing, food, non-alcoholic beverages, transportation, housing, water, and power. The
importance of how to decide which items go in the basket is determined by the importance it has
to consumers. The data is collected through surveys made directly or online to most firms
requesting the price of goods and services.
According to Ilyushina et al. (2020), in a pandemic situation, where the demand and
supply of services and goods changed completely, the use of CPI as a measure for inflation
represents a trip in the measure of the consumer price due that particulars mainly demanded may
not be listed in the different orders used or on the other hand, one of the particulars listed may
suddenly increase demand. This is because the CPI is measured on a month-to-month base and is
not programmed to measure changes during a period. On addition, Reinfsfort (2020), also agrees
to the fact that the CPI does not reflect abrupt changes in consumer behavior due that it is not
continuously updated. For example, the consumer price index may be lowered by falling prices
of unwanted goods that are no longer bought.
In the Report elaborated by Boskin and his collaborators in 1996, the calculation of the
inflation rate through the CPI showed a difference of 1.1% at least for two decades. Hence a
committee was established to analyze the measure and give a different calculation to the CPI
(Guerrero de Lizardi, 2009). Many researchers based their findings on the study of a sample
amount of businesses outcome while others used certain parameters as a tool. During the
pandemic many countries practiced the same method due to the fact that the demands made
where not much items included in the basket used to measure the CPI.
Inflation is calculated by the variance amongst the initial and final CPIs divided by the
beginning CPI is the inflation rate formula. The inflation percentage is premeditated by
multiplying the figure by 100.
(Initial CPI - Final CPI/ Initial CPI)*100 = Rate of Inflation
To calculate inflation for any product, the product's rate has to be determined at a previous time
just as the product's current rate. This represents the percentage increase or decrease in the
product's price. This can be used to compare the rate of inflation throughout time. The Ministry
of Statistics, estimates inflation using a basket of commodities and services.
Contextual Framework
Pre-Covid-19
In September and October of 2019, Belize's inflation rate was -0.1 percent. When
compared to the previous year, 2018, goods and services were practically the same price.
Education and food prices both increased as a result of the modest shift. In November 2019, the
rate of inflation was 0.01 percent, and prices stayed nearly steady. Consumer prices increased by
0.2 percent in December 2019, primarily to increases in education, food, and airfare.
Figure 1: Inflation Rate in the last quarter of 2019

Inflation Rate
0.2
0.01
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5
-0.1 -0.1
Source: Elaborated with Statistical Institute of Belize 2019 data
During Pandemic
Following the COVID-19 case, the Belizean government enacted new limits and rules in
2020 to assist limit the virus's spread. A nationwide state of emergency was issued on April 1,
2020, for 30 days. Work attendance, medical visits, and the purchasing of necessary
commodities were all allowed activities. The inland borders and the Philip Goldson International
Airport had been closed since March 23, 2020. The Belizean government extended the State of
Emergency as a result of the regulations being obeyed.
The Pandemic effect had not made much impact on the CPI results showing almost no
difference in the inflation rate for March, April, and May of 2020. Plus, the effects started to
show in May 2020 CPI data formulated. However, in the basket of selected goods for several
basic food items, there were higher prices as well as home rental costs and there was a 15.1
percent reduction in fuel. The price of fuel and lubricants decreased by almost $2 US dollars
when compared to the price in 2019 for the same period. The price changes that were occurring
in goods and services were made on mostly items not normally purchased by households in
Belize, for this reason, they were not reflected on the CPI of any of the mentioned months.
Additionally in the first quarter of 2020, to aid in the unemployment presented due to the
pandemic, the government launched an unemployment assistance program as well as a support
program for micro, small, and medium-sized businesses (MSMEs). For those who had been laid
off, the unemployment relief program gave 150 Belize dollars (BZ$) every two weeks for a total
of 12 weeks. MSME (Micro Small and Medium Enterprises) support program gave BZ$ 2.5
million in grants, with a fixed payment of BZ$ 2,500 for each micro-enterprise, as well as BZ$
7.0 million in wage subsidies to help employees stay in their jobs during the epidemic. The first
phase of this program was delivered in April 2020, and the second in August of the same year
(Caribbean Development Portal [CDP], 2020).
The Government of Belize, in collaboration with the US Embassy in Belize, prepared a

repatriation exercise for those who were displaced in Belize as a result of COVID-19. In the
initial repatriation, 168 Belizeans out of 570 who applied returned home; they were quarantined
for 14 days to make sure the virus would not spread. After this repatriation, the second wave hit
Belize.
In the 2020 first quarter, the budget deficit climbed dramatically to 11.0 percent of GDP,
up from 3.4 percent in the same period of 2019. This was mostly due to an 18.2% drop in overall
revenue due to a substantial drop in taxes receipts as the government granted tax relief to
businesses in response to COVID-19 (ECLAC, 2021). The state debt rises from 94.2 percent of
GDP to 123.3 percent. The account deficit reduced from 9.3 percent of 2019`s GDP to 7.5
percent in 2020 as a result of fewer imports and investment income payments, with higher
remittance inflows, offsetting losses in goods and services exports. The modest recovery in
agricultural, fishery and livestock output boosted the economic growth to 2.7 percent until 2021,
aided by better climate conditions and a comeback in demand.
In September 2020 the Belize Statistical Institute published the first results of the Labor
Force Survey for the year since they had failed to publish April`s findings as a result of COVID.
The results showed a 13.7% of growth in the unemployment rate. In September 168,630 persons
were in the labor force, which was 21,677 persons jobless when compared to September 2019,
69.5 percent of persons with tertiary level education were in the labor force contrary to 50.1
percent of those with only primary education level. Survey shows that one of the major causes
was the lack of tourism which accounted for more than one-third of job losses. Over 34,000
persons last their jobs due to the pandemic.
Throughout history, males were the most employed in comparison to females but during
the pandemic, females were not considered unemployed since many were caretaking elder
people or children at home and many others started their online businesses via Facebook lives.
Overall, for less than 6 months, 63.1 percent of unemployed persons were jobless consistently
before and worst after the hit of the pandemic.
The jobless alleviation program went into effect in August 2020. This was implemented
during the United Democratic Party's administration (UDP). General elections were conducted in
November 2020, resulting in a change in government leadership. The Ministry of Human
Development, under the People United Party (PUP) government, created a program known as a
"pantry" that was designed to target households in dire need across Belize. The pantry was
equivalent to a total of $150 BZ dollars equivalent to 75 US$. More than 35,000 applications
were submitted and renewed (United Nations Belize [UNB], 2021)
The Statistical Institute of Belize in October 2020 changed its basket to one with a total of
409 items rather than 260 in the previous one. This with the utmost objective to have used
detailed data on households spending patterns. The major change was in food and non-alcoholic
beverages with a higher weight in the basket hence if the prices for this change, the CPI will be
affected reflecting a greater impact on the inflation rate.
In addition to the epidemic, Belize was hit by natural disasters in the last quarter of 2020,
including storms Nana, Eta, and Lota, which caused floods across the country. A total of $80
million US dollars was committed to assist Belizeans with their losses and to repair the damage
caused by the impact, which is nearly 4.2 percent of the country's GDP. Belize's ability to
recover from the epidemic was hampered as a result of this (UNB, 2021). The year finished with
an inflation rate of 0.4 in the last month which was due to an escalation rate on home rentals,
personal care items, and food.
Figure 2 Global WHO Region total Vaccines (Source: WHO)
Figure 2: Inflation Rate Inflation Rate

2020
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4 0.4 0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.2 0.2 0.2
0.2
0.1 0.1
0.1
0
0
r
r
ry
er
y
be
be
be
ch
ay
il
ne
ar
us
-0.02
ly
ua
pr
ob
ar
em
em
em
M
Ju
nu
Ju
ug
A
br
ct
M
-0.1
Ja
pt
ov
ec
Fe
O
Se
D
N
I
In 2021, the year started with an inflation rate countrywide of 1% increase which then
hike to 1.3% in February of the same year. The price of non-alcoholic beverages and food
increased a 5.6 percent in all categories of food. Housing, water, and electricity, as well as fuel,
increased an 8.6%. Tourism was still in stop, hence restaurants and accommodation services
reflected decreases during these months. One year exact after the manifestation of COVID in
Belize, and the cease of everything, the fuel showed a significant increase of 4.4% in fuel.
During this time, the traveling had been reinstated with buses and taxis allowing only a 50% of
capacity. In April 2021, the inflation rate stood at 2.5% being the first month with a rate of more
than 1% since the impact of COVID-19. The prices of fuel and food continued to rise
significantly just as electricity and other utilities. During May still, a 2.8% accrue in inflation
was presented, resulting from the continued surge in food, fuel, and personal care products.
The new government that came into position in 2020, implemented a pay cut of 10% for
all public and government workers. This included teachers, police, nurses, etc. Many protests and
riots took place in April to avoid the implementation of this measure against COVID-19 effects,
however, there was no success on behalf of the Protestants. In June, being the first month with
the salary cut, the inflation rate rise 3%, and just as in the previous months the rise in fuel,
personal care products, transport, and food increased. In August 2021, the schools opened on a
face-to-face strategy, causing a great demand for transportation, this augmented the price of fuel
even more. Hence the information and communication category decreased by 4.1%.
Inflation Rate: 2021 Inflation Rate
6 5.7
5.2
5 4.9
4 3.9 3.8
3.3
3
3 2.8
2.5
2
1.5
1.3
1
1
0
ry
er
y
..
st
..
..
ch
ay
ne
l
ar
ly
ri
e.
e.
e.
ua
gu
ob
ar
Ap
Ju
Ju
nu
pt
ov
ec
br
Au
M
ct
Se
D
N
Ja
Fe
O
For September, October, and November, the inflation rate continued to rise significantly.
Proof of this can be seen in the above diagram. It was until December that the inflation rate
showed a decrease of almost 1%. From July to December, the Hotel and Accommodation
category started showing an increase, and the fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and food continued
to rise significantly. Since the education method changed from virtual to face-to-face, during
November and December, furnishing, household equipment, and routine household maintenance
were new categories implemented in the CPI basket.
After the presence of COVID-19, much of the inflation rates ranged between 0-1 percent
from September 2019 to January 2021 when the first increase reached 1%. During the entire year
2021, the inflation rate started an increasing tendency due to the high demand for certain goods
and services. During the year, both demands-pull inflation and cost-push inflation were
presented.
However, in March, 2021 the vaccines were implemented in Belize with was processed
through the assistance of the Pan American Health Organization, UNICEF and other
organizations that ensured the vaccine was available to all countries.
Post-Pandemic
Since the beginning of the year 2020, the price of items has been in constant increase. The
increase in the price of fuel, maintenance product and housing just as restaurant services has
increased causing a rappelling increase in other goods and services in Belize. When compared to
the month of January, the inflation rate difference stands at 4.1% for the month of January 2022.
In the month of February, the inflation rate rose as well. When compared to 2021, the prices of
fuel and transportation made a significant change in the inflation rate. The regular gasoline rose
by $2.38, and the transportation fares increased 5.6%. The prices for fuels went up by 21.2% in
comparison to figures of 2020 (SIB, 2022).
 Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data

files.
 Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data

files.
During the month of march, the trend continued with an inflation rate of 5.7%. For the first time
it was registered that the prices on woman footwear were as well something that increased the
rate for the month of March. Since the opening of the borders, the restaurants started to adjust the
price of their services. Hence it was noted that most restaurants increased rates in services.
During the month of April many items that are usually consumed by Belizeans increased fares
due to the continued increase in fuel fares. Prices for rice, pork tail, tomatoes, vegetable oil,
diesel, and Liquified Petroleum Gas increased between 10% to 50% of their normal prices back
in 2020.
For the month of May, the prices for the cinema and other recreation activities that were closed
due to the pandemic rose by 6.4% a total of 30.8% for cultural activities. For the months of June,
July and August, the increased continued constant with a difference in price raise for cleaning
products.
Inflation Rate: 2022 Inflation Rate
8
7.3 7.4
7 6.6 6.7
6 5.7 5.8
5 4.5
4.1
4
0
January February March April May June July August
The pandemic change completely the rate of Inflation in Belize the difference from 0.1% to a
total of 7.4% is a great difference.
Historical inflation rates in comparison

Year Belize Ø EU Ø USA Ø World
2021 3.24 % 2.55 % 4.70 % 3.50 %
2020 0.12 % 0.50 % 1.23 % 1.92 %
2019 0.19 % 1.63 % 1.81 % 2.19 %
2018 0.27 % 1.74 % 2.44 % 2.44 %
2017 1.15 % 1.43 % 2.13 % 2.19 %
2016 0.66 % 0.18 % 1.26 % 1.55 %
2015 -0.86 % -0.06 % 0.12 % 1.43 %
Data basis: International Monetary Fund, World Bank and OECD Inflation CPI indicator
(doi:10.1787/eee82e6e-en)
Chapter 3:
Methodology
Research Approach
This investigation was based on a data recollection, data analysis and reporting of findings.
Investigation Type
This investigation is descriptive and comparative due to the fact that the research is based on
getting data from the Statistical Institute of Belize and describing what has happened during the
years 2019 to 2022 with the inflation rate. It is made on a comparative approach because it is
compared within one another and between other countries to have a rationale understanding of
what happened in Belize.
Subject of Research
The CPI and their impact to Inflation from 2019 to 2022.
Population
The population used in this research are Belizeans from 14 years and above who are part of the
employed population of Belize. This with the reason that it affects directly the data gathered for
this specific research. Persons without employment might not show adequate data gathered.
Research Sample
The sample was made to 213 persons.
Research Instruments
A questionnaire of 23 questions was used to collect data between Belizeans of ages 14 and
above. The questionnaire was done both electronically through the use of google form and
physically with house-to-house visitation made on Sundays.
Research Method
My subject of investigation will be official statistics and my source of information will be
gathered using Secondary information. I will be employing the statistics gathered from the
Statistical Institute of Belize website starting from the Census made in 2019 and 2021. This with
the primary objective to compare how the economy was pre-Covid and post-Covid.
I am focused on collecting my data through a qualitative approach data to have a better analysis
the behavior of the inflation using statistical analysis methods and thematic analysis to find out
what was the pattern during the pandemic and how they affected the cost of living in individuals.
Chapter 4: Results
Results and Findings

After the implementation of the questionnaire and information gathered the following results
were found.
The questionnaire was conducted to 213 Belizeans who form part of the employable persons of
which 90 were males and 123 were females. Being this more than half of the population females.
Which alludes to the fact that after the COVID-19 more women were employed than men.
Age
Series 1
80
76
70
60
57
50
40
30
31
28
20
21
10
0
18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56 and above
Source: Elaborated with data gathered from questionnaire
From the 213 questioners, 28 were between the ages 18 to 25, 57 were between ages 26 to 35, 76
were mostly from the ages 36 to 45, 31 between 46 to 55 and 21 among 56 and above. A total of
166 persons responded to be breadwinners and a total of 47 denied that responsibility. Most of
the questioners that responded to be breadwinners where from the ages 36 to 45 years old. The
sum of 172 have independents which include parentages, siblings and offspring.
Districts in Belize
Toledo 29
Stancreek 35
Cayo 29
Belize 46
Orangewalk 36
Corozal 38
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Districts in Belize

The population sample response was mostly seen from Belize District with a total of 46
responders, followed by Corozal with 38, Orange walk with 36, Stan creek with 35 and Toledo
and Cayo with 29. From the total of 213, 191 persons are still employed currently in 2022 and 22
are not. When compared to 2020 after the pandemic hit, a total of 58% were employed, 16%
were unemployed and 21% were self-employed. When the comparison is made between 2020
there is a difference in employment of 31.67% of persons employed in 2022. In 2021, only 37%
of persons were employed. Hence, we can see that during 2020 the employment rate reduced and
it continued its reduction in 2021. After the pandemic lowered the increase in employment
began. However, it is noted more persons started to be self-employed during 2020 to 2021.

Employment Situation in 2020 Employment Situation in 2021
Employment Situation in 2019 Employment Situation in 2019
Employer 10 Employer 15
Self employed 35 Self employed 55
Employed 123 Employed 80
Unemployed 45 Unemployed 63
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
During the month of June 2021, the Government of Belize implemented the cut of 10% in pay
for all government workers and front liners. This cut affected many individuals. Based on the
questionnaire a total of 59% experienced the cut, being this more than half of the questioners.
However, after the pay cut, most of them tried to adjust their purchasing customs to fit in their
new budgeting margin. A total of 99% of the interviewees approved the fact that everything had
effectively changed in comparison to prices in 2019 before the pandemic. When we compare the
results found in the CPI, it is concluded that in effect the prices have only increased since the
pandemic hit.
For most Belizeans the items that increased during the pandemic was food and beverages
followed by transportation, hygiene and personal care and housing and personal items.
Items increased during COVID-19
Fuel
All
Internet and Entertainment
Food and Beverages
Transportation
Hygiene and Personal Care
Housing
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Items increased during COVID-19

In the below diagram it can be observed the comparison between the years 2019 to 2022 for
inflation in Belize.
Inflation Rate
2019-2022
25
20
15
10
5
0
th
t
g
re
r
s
s
or
re
n
-5
ls
s
ea
in
ice
ge
on
al
tio
Ca
ue
ltu
sp
is h
w
He
ra
rv
ati
ica
rf
an
al
Cu
rn
ve
Se
od
on
he
an
Tr
un
-10
Fu
Be
on
m
ot
rs
an
m
ng
Pe
d
co
ati
m
nd
an
hi
ts
Ac
Co
uc
ot
or
a
od
Ed
er
Sp
nd
Cl
d
Fo
an
at
sa
n,
W
on
tio
nt
g,
ati
ra
ea
in
au
cr
rm
us
Re
st
Ho
fo
Re
In
2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: Elaborated with Statistical Institute of Belize 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022 data
On the above diagram it can be observed the inflation difference from 2019 up to August 2022.
The difference is notably. The bars for the year 2019 are small in size compared to those for
2022. The food and beverages and the transportation are two categories that stand from among
the rest. The questionnaire results declared that both transportations just as food and beverages
has incremented drastically their price.
The Impact of Inflation on the Poor
Inflation places a very high burden on poor households because they are largely hand-to-mouth
consumers. Compared to richer families, even small increases in prices have strong implications
for their consumption. Uncontrolled inflation, moreover, generates poverty traps. It forces low-
income households to avoid starvation by eating lower quality food, potentially affecting their
children’s cognitive development.
The poor are more exposed to inflation because they lack the means to preserve their purchasing
power. Their access to financial markets is limited or nonexistent, so they cannot use credit to
smooth their consumption. Or if they have access, they depend on debt, usually from informal
markets, to meet basic needs. In addition, their income usually also comes from the informal
sector, so they are not covered by public or private institutional arrangements that protect
employees from price increases. And they do not have the capacity to save, meaning they can
neither use their money to maintain their consumption habits nor buy indexed financial
instruments to conserve the value of their assets.
High-income and middle-income households, on the other hand, have some access to those tools
and ever greater access to them as their income increases. Thus, efforts to reign in inflation are a
fight not only against the vulnerabilities of the poor but also against inequality. (Nuguer, 2021)
With lockdowns, working from home and physical distancing, more people are spending more of
their budget on food and housing, and less on unnecessary things like plane tickets and clothes.
And with millions of people out of work and with diminishing incomes, non-essential spending
is likely to remain low.
Chapter 5: Conclusion
Conclusion
After observations and findings conducted it can be concluded that the inflation rate has and
definitely changed the life of Belizeans. The effects started after the pandemic in 2020, but they
merely were noticeable, however they are now and are still impacting presently. The pandemic,
combined with over a year of unemployment in Belize, caused the economy to contract
histrionically, resulting in a rise in costs for many essential goods and services that will be
reflected in the upcoming years. Based on findings conducted and comparisons made with data
gathered. It can be accepted that the inflation rate has affected mostly food and beverages,
transportation fares and housing expenses.
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https://blogs.iadb.org/ideas-matter/en/inflation-and-its-impact-on-the-poor-in-the-era-of-
covid-19/
Pettinger, T. (2021). Demand-pull inflation.
https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/27613/inflation/demand-pull-inflation/
Pigou, A.C., Arthur C., Robarts (2019), University of Toronto: Unemployment in Internet
Archive. London, Williams, and Norgate https://rb.gy/2222r
Powell, Jerome. 2021a, “House Committee Hearing about the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and
Economic Security Act”.
Reinfsforf, M. (2020). Data Disruption: The impact of covid-19 on inflation measurement. IMF.
https://rb.gy/gkrq0
Reyes, A., (2022). The vaccine against inflation: interest rate hikes | BBVA Research.
https://rb.gy/w9raw
Seetharaman, G. (2020). How different sectors of the economy are bearing the brunt

of the coronavirus outbreak. https://rb.gy/vrebn
Statistical Institute of Belize (SBI). (2019). Price Index.

https://sib.org.bz/statistics/consumer-price-index/
Schwartz, L. V. (2009). Inflation: Causes and Effects. Nova Science Publishers, Inc.
Torres Zorrilla, J. (2021). Pandemic and cost inflation in Peru. Journal of Economics,
Finance and International Business, 5(1), 13-32.
Doi: https://doi.org/10.20511/jefib.2021.v5n1.1546
United Nations Belize (2021), COVID-19 SERP: Socio-Economic Response & Recovery Plan
2020 – 2021 https://rb.gy/u9ixm
‌
Appendix
Instructions: Kindly answer the below questions by selecting one of the below options. Please
bear in mind that your response is completely private and anonymously used only for statistical
findings of the inflation effect of Belize during 2019 to 2022.
1. Gender
Female/Male
Gender
Gender
140
120 123
100
90
80
60
40
20
0
Males Females
2. Age
16-24/25-35/36-45/ 45 and above
Age
Series 1
80
76
70
60
57
50
40
30
31
28
20
21
10
0
18-25 26-35 36-45 46-55 56 and above
3. ¿Are you the breadwinner?

Yes/No
B re adwinne rs
Breadwinners
No 47
Yes 166
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

4. Do you have any dependents (Son or daughters, siblings or elderly people who depend
economically of you for living)?
Yes/No
De pe nde nts
Dependents
No 41
Yes 172
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
5. District of Origin
Corozal/Orangewalk/Belize/Cayo/Stan Creek/Toledo
Districts in Be lize
Toledo 29
Stancreek 35
Cayo 29
Belize 46
Orangewalk 36
Corozal 38
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Districts in Belize
6. Where you employed during 2020?

Yes/No
7. Are you currently employed?
Employment Situation in 2020
Employer 10
Self employed 35
Employed 123
Unemployed 45
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Yes/No
Curre ntly Employed in 20 22

Currently Employed in 2022
No 22
Yes 191
0 50 100 150 200 250
8. During 2020, which of the below best suits you?

Employee (Working for someone)
Employer (Had your own business and people working for you)
Self-employed (conducted your little business)
9. Employment Situation in 2020 During

Employment Situation in 2019 2021,
which
Employer 10
of the
Self employed 35
below
best
Employed 123
suits
you?
Unemployed 45
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Employee (Working for someone)

Employer (Had your own business and people working for you)
Self-employed (conducted your little business)
Employer 15
Self employed 55
Employed 80
Unemployed 63
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
10. Due to COVID-19 Protocols and measures, did you enrol into any online business
throughout any virtual platform?
Yes/No
Online Busines s int e racti on due t o COVID-1 9
Online Business interaction due to COVID-19
112
110 111
108
106
104
102
102
100
98
96
Yes No
11. Were you laid off during 2020 or 2021 due to COVID?
Yes/No
Pe ople laid off during COVID-19
People laid off during COVID-19
140
120 126
100
80 87
60
40
20
0
Yes No
12. Where you enrolled in the pantry or cash program given by the Government of Belize
during COVID in 2019 and 2020?
Yes/No
B e liz eans enrolle d in Gove rnme nt Programs for COVID-
19 re lie f
Belizeans enrolled in Government Programs for COVID-19 relief
180
160
140 153
120
100
80
60
60
40
20
0
Yes No
13. What is your Monthly salary range?

0-1200/1200-2400/2400 and Over
Monthly Income 2022
Monthly Income 2022
80
70 73
60
58 56
50
40
30
26
20
10
0
0-1200 1201-2400 2401-3500 3501 or above
14. Were you affected with the pay cut in June 2021?
Yes/No
Persons affected by the Salary Reduction in June 2021
Persons affected by the Salary Reduction in June 2021
140
120 126
100
80 87
60
40
20
0
Yes No
15. Did you know that in 2019 the Consumer price Index contained 226 items that measured
the inflation of Belize and in October 2020, the items were changed to 416 and that new
categories such as hygiene was implemented?
YES/NO
Inflation
180
160
140
120
100 Inflation
80
60
40
20
0
Yes No
16. What Items do you recall increased price in the last quarter of 2020 due to COVID?
Items increased mostly on 2020
Clothing and footwear
Recreation, sport and culture
Restaurant and accomodation
Gas and other fuels
Housing, water and electricity
Personal care and Hygiene
Food and Beverages
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
17. When we compare prices of 2019 and presently. Has the raise in price affected your
purchasing capacity?
Yes/No
Purchasing Price
250
200
150
100
50
0
Yes No
Purchasing Price
18. What do you believe has caused great inflation in Belize?

The high demand of Items and the few supplies of the same
The increase of raw materials
The increase of Imported goods
The post effects of COVID-19 which include all of the above
19. In 2019 due to the lock down, the price of fuel decreased up to $6 a gallon how did that
benefited you?
20. Currently we have experienced an increasing trend in Fuel, how has that affected you
personally?
21. In 2020, during the high rise of COVID-19, Where do you consider most of your income
is spent per month?
Gas and other fuels
Food and Beverages
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
22. In 2021 and currently, where do you consider most of your income is spent per month?
Items increased mostly on 2021 and 2022
Gas and other fuels
Food and Beverages
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Items increased mostly on 2021 and 2022

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Running head: COVID Impact on Belize Economy: Inflation 1

Tecnológico Nacional de México

Instituto Tecnológico de Chetumal

Public Accountant Department, Instituto Tecnológico de Chetumal

Dr. Robert López Beltran

May 17, 2023

Palabras clave: Pandemia, Economía, Desempleo, Inflación, Precio

Keywords: Pandemic, Economy, Unemployment, Inflation, Price

Specific Question of investigation

¿How do they affect the cost of living of Belizeans?

Belize is a Caribbean-coast country in northern Central America. It is bordered on the

Gross Domestic Product.

It should only be used in the context of a wage-earning job. It is individuals of the

In economic concepts, inflation is defined as a long-term increase in the overall scale of

Supply and demand

CHANGE IN WORTH OF DOLLAR

Figure 2 Global WHO Region total Vaccines (Source: WHO)

HOW WAS INFLATION AFFECTED IN OTHER COUNTRIES?

Historical inflation rates in comparison

2013 3.81 % 1.22 % 1.46 % 2.62 %

Ukraine and Russia War

HOW IS THE INFLATION CALCULATED?

Figure 1: Inflation Rate in the last quarter of 2019

Source: Elaborated with Statistical Institute of Belize 2019 data

The Government of Belize, in collaboration with the US Embassy in Belize, prepared a

Figure 2 Global WHO Region total Vaccines (Source: WHO)

Figure 2: Inflation Rate Inflation Rate

Inflation Rate: 2021 Inflation Rate

 Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data

 Source: International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and data

Inflation Rate: 2022 Inflation Rate

Source: Elaborated with Statistical Institute of Belize 2022 data

Historical inflation rates in comparison

2021 3.24 % 2.55 % 4.70 % 3.50 %

2020 0.12 % 0.50 % 1.23 % 1.92 %

2019 0.19 % 1.63 % 1.81 % 2.19 %

2018 0.27 % 1.74 % 2.44 % 2.44 %

2017 1.15 % 1.43 % 2.13 % 2.19 %

2016 0.66 % 0.18 % 1.26 % 1.55 %

2015 -0.86 % -0.06 % 0.12 % 1.43 %

Results and Findings

Source: Elaborated with data gathered from questionnaire

Source: Elaborated with data gathered from questionnaire

Source: Elaborated with data gathered from questionnaire

Self employed 35 Self employed 55

Employed 123 Employed 80

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Items increased during COVID-19

Internet and Entertainment

Food and Beverages

Hygiene and Personal Care

Items increased during COVID-19

Source: Elaborated with data gathered from questionnaire

2019 2020 2021 2022

The Impact of Inflation on the Poor

Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). (2018). Main Features - Unemployment.;

Furman, J., (2022), Consequences of the Ukraine War. https://rb.gy/cr8ar

Lazzati, S. (2015). Contabilidad e inflación: herramienta para la gestión. Ediciones Granica.

McCallum, B. (2008). "Inflation Determination with Taylor Rules: Is New Keynesian

Mira, P. J. (2014). Economía al diván: desempleo, inflación y crisis bajo la mirada de la

Seetharaman, G. (2020). How different sectors of the economy are bearing the brunt

Statistical Institute of Belize (SBI). (2019). Price Index.