Movimiento Aeroportuario del Aeropuerto Internacional Inca Manco Cápac

OPERACION
AÑOS PASAJEROS CARGA (Kg)
ES
4400
4300
2004 2629 135940 638440 4200
2005 2315 152155 585650 4100
4000
2006 2547 162443 816197
3900
2007 3460 195537 946090 3800
2008 3047 199733 1219727 3700
3600
2009 3101 199365 1166058 3500
2010 3375 211214 1051508 3400
3300
2011 3917 257913 1120124 3200
2012 4017 330830 1092113 3100
2013 3849 352982 1129497 3000
2900
2014 4059 369571 1033245 2800
2015 4317 434760 969552 2700
2600
2016 4272 462650 953248 2500
2017 4014 439156 923305 2400
2300
2018 4376 476914 959075 2002 2004 2006
2019 4018 461177 895742

minimo 2004 2315 135940 585650

maximo 2019 4376 476914 1219727

Pasajeros

435000

385000

335000

285000

235000

185000

135000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
235000

185000

135000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
 Operaciones
4400
4300
4200
4100
4000
3900
3800
3700
3600
3500
3400
3300
3200
3100
3000
2900
2800
2700
2600
2500
2400
2300
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Carga
1285000

1185000

1085000

985000

885000

785000

685000

585000
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
018 2020
 PBI MILLONES DE SOLES

AÑO(X) NACIONAL (Y) X-Xm Y-Ym (X-Xm)^2 (Y-Ym)^2

2007 319693 -6 -122158.3846 36.0000 14922670931.8402

2008 348870 -5 -92981.3846 25.0000 8645537884.9941
2009 352693 -4 -89158.3846 16.0000 7949217547.2249
2010 382081 -3 -59770.3846 9.0000 3572498877.0710
2011 406256 -2 -35595.3846 4.0000 1267031405.9172
2012 431199 -1 -10652.3846 1.0000 113473297.9941
2013 456435 0 14583.6154 0.0000 212681837.6864
2014 467308 1 25456.6154 1.0000 648039266.8402
2015 482506 2 40654.6154 4.0000 1652797752.0710
2016 501581 3 59729.6154 9.0000 3567626953.9941
2017 514215 4 72363.6154 16.0000 5236492831.5326
2018 534626 5 92774.6154 25.0000 8607129259.7633
2019 546605 6 104753.6154 36.0000 10973319936.1479
Sumas 26169.00 5744068.00 0.00 0.00 182.00 67368517783.08
n datos
13
Xm Ym
2013.000 441851.385
MIN MIN
2007 319693
MAX MAX
2019 546605

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

b = 19139.8296703297 Y = 19139.83 x
a = -38086625.741758

Recta de regresion de X sobre Y

b = 5.170737185E-05 X= 0.00 y
a = 1990.15302615321

Estmacion para X = 2040

Y = 958626.7857

Estmacion para Y = 77
X = 1990.157008

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

inc x = 1
n X y
1 2007 327012.4066
2 2008 346152.2363
3 2009 365292.0659
4 2010 384431.8956
5 2011 403571.7253
6 2012 422711.5549
7 2013 441851.3846
8 2014 460991.2143
9 2015 480131.0440
10 2016 499270.8736
11 2017 518410.7033
12 2018 537550.5330
13 2019 556690.3626
14 2020 575830.1923
15 2021 594970.0220
16 2022 614109.8516
17 2023 633249.6813
18 2024 652389.5110
19 2025 671529.3407
20 2026 690669.1703
21 2027 709809.0000
22 2028 728948.8297
23 2029 748088.6593
24 2030 767228.4890
25 2031 786368.3187
26 2032 805508.1484
27 2033 824647.9780
28 2034 843787.8077
29 2035 862927.6374
30 2036 882067.4670
31 2037 901207.2967
32 2038 920347.1264
33 2039 939486.9560
34 2040 958626.7857
35 2041 977766.6154
36 2042 996906.4451
37 2043 1016046.2747
38 2044 1035186.1044
39 2045 1054325.9341
40 2046 1073465.7637
41 2047 1092605.5934
42 2048 1111745.4231
43 2049 1130885.2527
44 2050 1150025.0824
45 2051 1169164.9121
46 2052 1188304.7418
47 2053 1207444.5714
48 2054 1226584.4011
49 2055 1245724.2308
 Regresion Lineal
(X-Xm)*(Y-Ym)

519000

732950.3077
464906.9231 469000
356633.5385
179311.1538
71190.7692
10652.3846 419000
0.0000
25456.6154
81309.2308
369000
179188.8462
289454.4615
463873.0769
628521.6923 319000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201
3483449.00

Sxy (covarianza) = 267957.615

Sx (des.estandar) = 3.742
Sy (des.estandar) = 71987.455
r (pearson) = 0.995
r^2 (coef.determinacion) = 98.967 %

_+ -38086625.74

_+ 1990.15
Regresion Lineal

12 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

 PBI MILLONES DE SOLES

AÑO(X) PUNO (Y) X-Xm Y-Ym (X-Xm)^2 (Y-Ym)^2

2007 5888.474 -6 -2125.9178 36.0000 4519526.6886

2008 6328.455 -5 -1685.9368 25.0000 2842383.0492
2009 6587.873 -4 -1426.5188 16.0000 2034956.0184
2010 6980.479 -3 -1033.9128 9.0000 1068975.7734
2011 7384.505 -2 -629.8868 4.0000 396757.4390
2012 7734.458 -1 -279.9338 1.0000 78362.9582
2013 8294.32 0 279.9282 0.0000 78359.7713
2014 8487.313 1 472.9212 1.0000 223654.4178
2015 8519.702 2 505.3102 4.0000 255338.3516
2016 9075.999 3 1061.6072 9.0000 1127009.7491
2017 9434.737 4 1420.3452 16.0000 2017380.3561
2018 9666.999 5 1652.6072 25.0000 2731110.4049
2019 9803.78 6 1789.3882 36.0000 3201909.9651
Sumas 26169.00 104187.09 0.00 0.00 182.00 20575724.94
n datos
13
Xm Ym
2013.000 8014.392
MIN MIN
2007 5888.474
MAX MAX
2019 9803.78

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

b= 334.5155 Y= 334.52 x
a = -665365.30965385

Recta de regresion de X sobre Y

b = 0.00295891499179 X= 0.00 y
a = 1989.28609581634

Estmacion para X = 2040

Y = 17046.31035

Estmacion para Y = 77
X = 1989.513932

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

inc x = 1
n X y
1 2007 6007.2988
2 2008 6341.8143
3 2009 6676.3298
4 2010 7010.8453
5 2011 7345.3608
6 2012 7679.8763
7 2013 8014.3918
8 2014 8348.9073
9 2015 8683.4228
10 2016 9017.9383
11 2017 9352.4538
12 2018 9686.9693
13 2019 10021.4848
14 2020 10356.0003
15 2021 10690.5158
16 2022 11025.0313
17 2023 11359.5468
18 2024 11694.0623
19 2025 12028.5778
20 2026 12363.0933
21 2027 12697.6088
22 2028 13032.1243
23 2029 13366.6398
24 2030 13701.1553
25 2031 14035.6708
26 2032 14370.1863
27 2033 14704.7018
28 2034 15039.2173
29 2035 15373.7328
30 2036 15708.2483
31 2037 16042.7638
32 2038 16377.2793
33 2039 16711.7948
34 2040 17046.3103
35 2041 17380.8258
36 2042 17715.3413
37 2043 18049.8568
38 2044 18384.3723
39 2045 18718.8878
 Regresion Lineal
(X-Xm)*(Y-Ym)

9380

12755.5071 8880

8429.6842
5706.0754 8380

3101.7385
1259.7737 7880
279.9338
0.0000 7380
472.9212
1010.6203 6880
3184.8215
5681.3806 6380
8263.0358
10736.3289 5880
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
60881.82

Sxy (covarianza) = 4683.217

Sx (des.estandar) = 3.742
Sy (des.estandar) = 1258.073
r (pearson) = 0.995
r^2 (coef.determinacion) = 98.980 %

_+ -665365.31

_+ 1989.29
Regresion Lineal

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

 AÑO(X) PASAJEROS(Y) X-Xm Y-Ym (X-Xm)^2 (Y-Ym)^2
2004 135940 -7.5 -166706.2500 56.2500 27790973789.0625
2005 152155 -6.5 -150491.2500 42.2500 22647616326.5625
2006 162443 -5.5 -140203.2500 30.2500 19656951310.5625
2007 195537 -4.5 -107109.2500 20.2500 11472391435.5625
2008 199733 -3.5 -102913.2500 12.2500 10591137025.5625
2009 199365 -2.5 -103281.2500 6.2500 10667016601.5625
2010 211214 -1.5 -91432.2500 2.2500 8359856340.0625
2011 257913 -0.5 -44733.2500 0.2500 2001063655.5625
2012 330830 0.5 28183.7500 0.2500 794323764.0625
2013 352982 1.5 50335.7500 2.2500 2533687728.0625
2014 369571 2.5 66924.7500 6.2500 4478922162.5625
2015 434760 3.5 132113.7500 12.2500 17454042939.0625
2016 462650 4.5 160003.7500 20.2500 25601200014.0625
2017 439156 5.5 136509.7500 30.2500 18634911845.0625
2018 476914 6.5 174267.7500 42.2500 30369248690.0625
2019 461177 7.5 158530.7500 56.2500 25131998695.5625
Sumas 32184.00 4842340.00 0.00 0.00 340.00 238185342323.00
n datos
16
Xm Ym
2011.500 302646.250
MIN MIN
2004 135940
MAX MAX
2019 476914

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

b = 25798.1205882353 Y = 25798.12 x
a = -51590273.313235

Recta de regresion de X sobre Y

b = 3.6825779934E-05 X= 0.00 y
a = 2000.35481579951

Estmacion para X = 2040

Y = 1037892.687

Estmacion para Y = 77
X = 2000.357651

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

inc x = 1
n X y
1 2004 109160.3456
2 2005 134958.4662
3 2006 160756.5868
4 2007 186554.7074
5 2008 212352.8279
6 2009 238150.9485
7 2010 263949.0691
8 2011 289747.1897
9 2012 315545.3103
10 2013 341343.4309
11 2014 367141.5515
12 2015 392939.6721
13 2016 418737.7926
14 2017 444535.9132
15 2018 470334.0338
16 2019 496132.1544
17 2020 521930.2750
18 2021 547728.3956
19 2022 573526.5162
20 2023 599324.6368
21 2024 625122.7574
22 2025 650920.8779
23 2026 676718.9985
24 2027 702517.1191
25 2028 728315.2397
26 2029 754113.3603
27 2030 779911.4809
28 2031 805709.6015
29 2032 831507.7221
30 2033 857305.8426
31 2034 883103.9632
32 2035 908902.0838
33 2036 934700.2044
34 2037 960498.3250
35 2038 986296.4456
36 2039 1012094.5662
37 2040 1037892.6868
38 2041 1063690.8074
39 2042 1089488.9279
40 2043 1115287.0485
 (X-Xm)*(Y-Ym)
Regresion L
1250296.8750
600000
978193.1250
771117.8750 550000
481991.6250
500000
360196.3750
258203.1250 450000
137148.3750 400000
22366.6250
350000
14091.8750
75503.6250 300000
167311.8750
250000
462398.1250
720016.8750 200000
750803.6250
150000
1132740.3750
1188980.6250 100000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201
8771361.00

Sxy (covarianza) = 548210.063

Sx (des.estandar) = 4.610
Sy (des.estandar) = 122010.589
r (pearson) = 0.975
r^2 (coef.determinacion) = 95.004 %

_+ -51590273.31

_+ 2000.35
 Regresion Lineal

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
 AÑOS PERIODO PASAJEROS

2007 1 195537
2008 2 199733
2009 3 199365
2010 4 211214
2011 5 257913
2012 6 330830
2013 7 352982
2014 8 369571
2015 9 434760
2016 10 462650
2017 11 439156
2018 12 476914
2019 13 461177
2020 14 521930.27
2021 15 547728.40
2022 16 573526.52
2023 17 599324.64
2024 18 625122.76
2025 19 650920.88
2026 20 676719.00
2027 21 702517.12
2028 22 728315.24
2029 23 754113.36
2030 24 779911.48
2031 25 805709.60
2032 26 831507.72
2033 27 857305.84
2034 28 883103.96
2035 29 908902.08
2036 30 934700.20
2037 31 960498.32
2038 32 986296.45
2039 33 1012094.57
2040 34 1037892.69

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.977060824707197
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.954647855177508
R^2 ajustado 0.945577426213009
Error típico 26255.2060338333
Observaciones 13

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 2 145102946604.133
Residuos 10 6893358438.79035
Total 12 151996305042.923

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción -283437.490329512 52099.2672749488
Variable X 1 2.90098883431619 1.44576743859228
Variable X 2 -82.4189199217828 82.7273976022865
 PBI PUNO
PBI NACIONAL (milones de PROYECCIÓN DE
(millones de
soles) PASAJEROS PUNO
soles)
Pasajeros vs Proye
319693 5888.47 158666.67 600000
348870 6328.46 207046.06
500000
352693 6587.87 196755.59
382081 6980.48 249651.68 400000
406256 7384.51 286483.70
300000
431199 7734.46 330000.32
456435 8294.32 357066.45 200000
467308 8487.31 372702.63 100000
482506 8519.70 414122.39
0
501581 9076.00 423609.36 1 2 3 4 5 6
514215 9434.74 430693.65
PASAJEROS
534626 9667.00 470762.95
546605 9803.78 494240.55
575830.19 10356.00 533509.10
594970.02 10690.52 561463.13
614109.85 11025.03 589417.16 Pasajeros vs Proy
633249.68 11359.55 617371.18 1200000.00
652389.51 11694.06 645325.21
1000000.00
671529.34 12028.58 673279.23
690669.17 12363.09 701233.26 800000.00
709809.00 12697.61 729187.29
728948.83 13032.12 757141.31 600000.00

748088.66 13366.64 785095.34 400000.00

767228.49 13701.16 813049.36
786368.32 14035.67 841003.39 200000.00
805508.15 14370.19 868957.42
0.00
824647.98 14704.70 896911.44 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
843787.81 15039.22 924865.47 PASAJEROS
862927.64 15373.73 952819.49
882067.47 15708.25 980773.52
901207.30 16042.76 1008727.55
920347.13 16377.28 1036681.57
939486.96 16711.79 1064635.60
958626.79 17046.31 1092589.62
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
72551473302.0664 105.24836906 1.91862082503E-07
689335843.879035

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
-5.44033544337003 0.0002847108 -399521.891904843 -167353.089 -399521.892 -167353.089
2.00653905799734 0.0725924598 -0.32038176654796 6.12235944 -0.32038177 6.12235944
-0.996271154545599 0.3426143046 -266.747048643153 101.909209 -266.747049 101.909209
 Pasajeros vs Proyeccion 2007-2019

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

PASAJEROS PROYECCION

Pasajeros vs Proyeccion 2020-2040

0

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

PASAJEROS PROYECCION
perior 95.0%
 AÑO(X) OPERACIONES(Y) X-Xm Y-Ym (X-Xm)^2 (Y-Ym)^2

2004 2629 -7.5 -953.0625 56.2500 908328.1289

2005 2315 -6.5 -1267.0625 42.2500 1605447.3789
2006 2547 -5.5 -1035.0625 30.2500 1071354.3789
2007 3460 -4.5 -122.0625 20.2500 14899.2539
2008 3047 -3.5 -535.0625 12.2500 286291.8789
2009 3101 -2.5 -481.0625 6.2500 231421.1289
2010 3375 -1.5 -207.0625 2.2500 42874.8789
2011 3917 -0.5 334.9375 0.2500 112183.1289
2012 4017 0.5 434.9375 0.2500 189170.6289
2013 3849 1.5 266.9375 2.2500 71255.6289
2014 4059 2.5 476.9375 6.2500 227469.3789
2015 4317 3.5 734.9375 12.2500 540133.1289
2016 4272 4.5 689.9375 20.2500 476013.7539
2017 4014 5.5 431.9375 30.2500 186570.0039
2018 4376 6.5 793.9375 42.2500 630336.7539
2019 4018 7.5 435.9375 56.2500 190041.5039
Sumas 32184.00 57313.00 0.00 0.00 340.00 6783790.94
n datos
16
Xm Ym
2011.500 3582.063
MIN MIN
2004 2315
MAX MAX
2019 4376

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

b= 126.875 Y= 126.88 x
a= -251627

Recta de regresion de X sobre Y

b = 0.00635890763696 X= 0.01 y

a = 1988.72199541269

Estmacion para X = 2040

Y= 7198

Estmacion para Y = 77
X = 1989.211631

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

inc x = 1
n X y
1 2004 2630.5000
2 2005 2757.3750
3 2006 2884.2500
4 2007 3011.1250
5 2008 3138.0000
6 2009 3264.8750
7 2010 3391.7500
8 2011 3518.6250
9 2012 3645.5000
10 2013 3772.3750
11 2014 3899.2500
12 2015 4026.1250
13 2016 4153.0000
14 2017 4279.8750
15 2018 4406.7500
16 2019 4533.6250
17 2020 4660.5000
18 2021 4787.3750
19 2022 4914.2500
20 2023 5041.1250
21 2024 5168.0000
22 2025 5294.8750
23 2026 5421.7500
24 2027 5548.6250
25 2028 5675.5000
26 2029 5802.3750
27 2030 5929.2500
28 2031 6056.1250
29 2032 6183.0000
30 2033 6309.8750
31 2034 6436.7500
32 2035 6563.6250
33 2036 6690.5000
34 2037 6817.3750
35 2038 6944.2500
36 2039 7071.1250
37 2040 7198.0000
38 2041 7324.8750
39 2042 7451.7500
 (X-Xm)*(Y-Ym) Regresio
7147.9688
8235.9063 4300

5692.8438
549.2813
1872.7188 3800
1202.6563
310.5938
-167.4688
217.4688 3300

400.4063
1192.3438
2572.2813 2800
3104.7188
2375.6563
5160.5938
3269.5313 2300
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
43137.50

Sxy (covarianza) = 2696.0938

Sx (des.estandar) = 4.6098
Sy (des.estandar) = 651.1428
r (pearson) = 0.8982
r^2 (coef.determinacion) = 80.679 %

_+ -251627.00

_+ 1988.72 #operaciones 7198

a320 180

# total pas 1295640

1037892.687
a100
a200
a320
 Regresion Lineal

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

pasajeros

OK
 AÑOS PERIODO OPERACIONES

2007 1 3460
2008 2 3047
2009 3 3101
2010 4 3375
2011 5 3917
2012 6 4017
2013 7 3849
2014 8 4059
2015 9 4317
2016 10 4272
2017 11 4014
2018 12 4376
2019 13 4018
2020 14 4660.50
2021 15 4787.38
2022 16 4914.25
2023 17 5041.13
2024 18 5168.00
2025 19 5294.88
2026 20 5421.75
2027 21 5548.63
2028 22 5675.50
2029 23 5802.38
2030 24 5929.25
2031 25 6056.13
2032 26 6183.00
2033 27 6309.88
2034 28 6436.75
2035 29 6563.63
2036 30 6690.50
2037 31 6817.38
2038 32 6944.25
2039 33 7071.13
2040 34 7198.00

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.878838546595431
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.77235719098197
R^2 ajustado 0.726828629178364
Error típico 232.938078598158
Observaciones 13

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Regresión 2 1840963.74615921
Residuos 10 542601.484610016
Total 12 2383565.23076923

Coeficientes Error típico

Intercepción 1926.94703193824 462.228450988338
Variable X 1 0.023622181433069 0.012826952826479
Variable X 2 -1.06458222047234 0.733963428817511
 PBI PUNO
PBI NACIONAL (milones de PROYECCIÓN DE
(millones de
soles) PASAJEROS PUNO
soles)
Operaciones vs Pro
319693 5888.47 3210.03 5000
348870 6328.46 3430.86 4500
352693 6587.87 3244.99 4000
382081 6980.48 3521.24 3500
3000
406256 7384.51 3662.19
2500
431199 7734.46 3878.84 2000
456435 8294.32 3878.95 1500
467308 8487.31 3930.34 1000
482506 8519.70 4254.87 500
0
501581 9076.00 4113.24 1 2 3 4 5 6
514215 9434.74 4029.77
PASAJEROS
534626 9667.00 4264.66
546605 9803.78 4402.02
575830.19 10356.00 4504.50
594970.02 10690.52 4600.50
614109.85 11025.03 4696.51 Operaciones vs Pro
633249.68 11359.55 4792.51 8000.00
652389.51 11694.06 4888.52 7000.00
671529.34 12028.58 4984.52
6000.00
690669.17 12363.09 5080.53
5000.00
709809.00 12697.61 5176.54
728948.83 13032.12 5272.54 4000.00

748088.66 13366.64 5368.55 3000.00

767228.49 13701.16 5464.55 2000.00
786368.32 14035.67 5560.56 1000.00
805508.15 14370.19 5656.56
0.00
824647.98 14704.70 5752.57 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
843787.81 15039.22 5848.57 PASAJEROS
862927.64 15373.73 5944.58
882067.47 15708.25 6040.58
901207.30 16042.76 6136.59
920347.13 16377.28 6232.59
939486.96 16711.79 6328.60
958626.79 17046.31 6424.60
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
920481.873079607 16.964234326 0.000611321513862
54260.1484610016

Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%

Superior 95.0%
4.16881961250554 0.0019215711 897.037861797689 2956.8562 897.037862 2956.8562
1.84160507586062 0.0953476783 -0.0049580505122 0.05220241 -0.00495805 0.05220241
-1.45045676483839 0.1775631393 -2.6999546521577 0.57079021 -2.69995465 0.57079021
 Operaciones vs Proyeccion 2007-2019

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

PASAJEROS PROYECCION

Operaciones vs Proyeccion 2020-2040

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

PASAJEROS PROYECCION
perior 95.0%
 PBI
Tasa anual PBI PUNO Tasa anual
NACIONAL
AÑOS PERIODO de (millones de de
(milones de
crecimiento soles) crecimiento
soles)

2007 1 319693 5888.47

2008 2 348870 9.13 6328.46 7.47
2009 3 352693 1.10 6587.87 4.10
2010 4 382081 8.33 6980.48 5.96
2011 5 406256 6.33 7384.51 5.79
2012 6 431199 6.14 7734.46 4.74
2013 7 456435 5.85 8294.32 7.24
2014 8 467308 2.38 8487.31 2.33
2015 9 482506 3.25 8519.70 0.38
2016 10 501581 3.95 9076.00 6.53
2017 11 514215 2.52 9434.74 3.95
2018 12 534626 3.97 9667.00 2.46
2019 13 546605 2.24 9803.78 1.41
 TASA DE CRECIMIENTO ANUAL
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

NACIONAL PUNO
 MODELO LINEAL

A320
AÑOS PERIODO PASAJEROS A320 VUELOS/AÑO
VUELOS/DÍA
AL 80% = 120 pasajeros/vuelo

2020 14 521930 4349 12

2021 15 547728 4564 13
2022 16 573527 4779 13
2023 17 599325 4994 14
2024 18 625123 5209 14
2025 19 650921 5424 15
2026 20 676719 5639 15
2027 21 702517 5854 16
2028 22 728315 6069 17
2029 23 754113 6284 17
2030 24 779911 6499 18
2031 25 805710 6714 18
2032 26 831508 6929 19
2033 27 857306 7144 20
2034 28 883104 7359 20
2035 29 908902 7574 21
2036 30 934700 7789 21
2037 31 960498 8004 22
2038 32 986296 8219 23
2039 33 1012095 8434 23
2040 34 1037893 8649 24

MODELO ECONOMÉTRICO

A320
AÑOS PERIODO PASAJEROS A320 VUELOS/AÑO
VUELOS/DÍA
AL 80% = 120 pasajeros/vuelo

2020 14 533509 4446 12

2021 15 561463 4679 13
2022 16 589417 4912 13
2023 17 617371 5145 14
2024 18 645325 5378 15
2025 19 673279 5611 15
2026 20 701233 5844 16
2027 21 729187 6077 17
2028 22 757141 6310 17
2029 23 785095 6542 18
2030 24 813049 6775 19
2031 25 841003 7008 19
2032 26 868957 7241 20
2033 27 896911 7474 20
2034 28 924865 7707 21
2035 29 952819 7940 22
2036 30 980774 8173 22
2037 31 1008728 8406 23
2038 32 1036682 8639 24
2039 33 1064636 8872 24
2040 34 1092590 9105 25
 OPERACIONES/ OPERACIONES /
AÑO DIA

4661 13
4787 13
4914 13
5041 14
5168 14
5295 15
5422 15
5549 15
5676 16
5802 16
5929 16
6056 17
6183 17
6310 17
6437 18
6564 18
6691 18
6817 19
6944 19
7071 19
7198 20

OPERACIONES/ OPERACIONES /
AÑO DIA

4504 12
4601 13
4697 13
4793 13
4889 13
4985 14
5081 14
5177 14
5273 14
5369 15
5465 15
5561 15
5657 15
5753 16
5849 16
5945 16
6041 17
6137 17
6233 17
6329 17
6425 18
 AÑO(X) CARGA (Y) X-Xm Y-Ym (X-Xm)^2 (Y-Ym)^2
2004 638440 -7.5 -330283.1875 56.2500 109086983945.1600
2005 585650 -6.5 -383073.1875 42.2500 146745066981.4100
2006 816197 -5.5 -152526.1875 30.2500 23264237873.2852
2007 946090 -4.5 -22633.1875 20.2500 512261176.4102
2008 1219727 -3.5 251003.8125 12.2500 63002913889.5352
2009 1166058 -2.5 197334.8125 6.2500 38941028224.4102
2010 1051508 -1.5 82784.8125 2.2500 6853325180.6602
2011 1120124 -0.5 151400.8125 0.2500 22922206025.6602
2012 1092113 0.5 123389.8125 0.2500 15225045828.7852
2013 1129497 1.5 160773.8125 2.2500 25848218785.7852
2014 1033245 2.5 64521.8125 6.2500 4163064288.2852
2015 969552 3.5 828.8125 12.2500 686930.1602
2016 953248 4.5 -15475.1875 20.2500 239481428.1602
2017 923305 5.5 -45418.1875 30.2500 2062811755.7852
2018 959075 6.5 -9648.1875 42.2500 93087522.0352
2019 895742 7.5 -72981.1875 56.2500 5326253728.9102
Sumas 32184.00 15499571.00 0.00 0.00 340.00 464286673564.44
n datos
16
Xm Ym
2011.500 968723.188
MIN MIN
2004 585650
MAX MAX
2019 1219727

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

b = 11393.1338235294 Y = 11393.13 x
a = -21948565.49853

Recta de regresion de X sobre Y

b = 8.3432623001E-06 X= 0.00 y
a = 2003.41768835048

Estmacion para X = 2040

Y = 1293427.501

Estmacion para Y = 77
X = 2003.418331

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

inc x = 1
n X y
1 2004 883274.6838
2 2005 894667.8176
3 2006 906060.9515
4 2007 917454.0853
5 2008 928847.2191
6 2009 940240.3529
7 2010 951633.4868
8 2011 963026.6206
9 2012 974419.7544
10 2013 985812.8882
11 2014 997206.0221
12 2015 1008599.1559
13 2016 1019992.2897
14 2017 1031385.4235
15 2018 1042778.5574
16 2019 1054171.6912
17 2020 1065564.8250
18 2021 1076957.9588
19 2022 1088351.0926
20 2023 1099744.2265
 (X-Xm)*(Y-Ym)
Regresion L
2477123.9063
2489975.7188 1185000
838894.0313
101849.3438
1085000
-878513.3438
-493337.0313
-124177.2188 985000
-75700.4063
61694.9063
241160.7188 885000

161304.5313
2900.8438 785000
-69638.3438
-249800.0313
-62713.2188 685000
-547358.9063
3873665.50 585000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20

Sxy (covarianza) = 242104.094

Sx (des.estandar) = 4.610
Sy (des.estandar) = 170346.462
r (pearson) = 0.308
r^2 (coef.determinacion) = 9.506 %

_+ -21948565.50

_+ 2003.42
 Regresion Lineal

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
 AÑO(X) CARGA(Y) X-X y-y (X-X)^2 (y-y)^2
2004 638440 -7.5 -330283.1875 56.2500 109086983945.1600
2005 585650 -6.5 -383073.1875 42.2500 146745066981.4100
2006 816197 -5.5 -152526.1875 30.2500 23264237873.2852
2007 946090 -4.5 -22633.1875 20.2500 512261176.4102
2008 1219727 -3.5 251003.8125 12.2500 63002913889.5352
2009 1166058 -2.5 197334.8125 6.2500 38941028224.4102
2010 1051508 -1.5 82784.8125 2.2500 6853325180.6602
2011 1120124 -0.5 151400.8125 0.2500 22922206025.6602
2012 1092113 0.5 123389.8125 0.2500 15225045828.7852
2013 1129497 1.5 160773.8125 2.2500 25848218785.7852
2014 1033245 2.5 64521.8125 6.2500 4163064288.2852
2015 969552 3.5 828.8125 12.2500 686930.1602
2016 953248 4.5 -15475.1875 20.2500 239481428.1602
2017 923305 5.5 -45418.1875 30.2500 2062811755.7852
2018 959075 6.5 -9648.1875 42.2500 93087522.0352
2019 895742 7.5 -72981.1875 56.2500 5326253728.9102

sx sy
Sumas 32184.00 15499571.00 0.00 0.00 340.00 464286673564.44
n datos
16
Xm Ym
2011.500 968723.188
MIN MIN
2004 585650
MAX MAX
2019 1219727

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

b = 11393.13382353 Y = 11393.13 x
a = -21948565.4985

Recta de regresion de X sobre Y

b = 8.3432623E-06 X= 0.00 y
a = 2003.41768835

Estmacion para X = 2040

Y = 1293427.501

Estmacion para Y = 77
X = 2003.418331
Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

inc x = 1
n X y
1 2004 883274.6838
2 2005 894667.8176
3 2006 906060.9515
4 2007 917454.0853
5 2008 928847.2191
6 2009 940240.3529
7 2010 951633.4868
8 2011 963026.6206
9 2012 974419.7544
10 2013 985812.8882
11 2014 997206.0221
12 2015 1008599.1559
13 2016 1019992.2897
14 2017 1031385.4235
15 2018 1042778.5574
16 2019 1054171.6912
17 2020 1065564.8250
18 2021 1076957.9588
19 2022 1088351.0926
20 2023 1099744.2265
 (X-X)*(y-y)
2477123.9063 Regresion Line
2489975.7188
838894.0313 1185000
101849.3438
-878513.3438
1085000
-493337.0313
-124177.2188
-75700.4063 985000
61694.9063
241160.7188
885000
161304.5313
2900.8438
-69638.3438 785000
-249800.0313
-62713.2188 685000
-547358.9063

585000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2

3873665.50

Sxy (covarianza) = 242104.09375

Sx (des.estandar) = 4.6097722286
Sy (des.estandar) = 170346.46195
r (pearson) = 0.3083113749
r^2 (coef.determinacion) = 9.505590391 %

_+ -21948565.50

_+ 2003.42
 Regresion Lineal

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
 AÑO(X) OPERACIONES(Y) xy
2004 638440 1279433760
2005 585650 1174228250
2006 816197 1637291182
2007 946090 1898802630
2008 1219727 2449211816
2009 1166058 2342610522
2010 1051508 2113531080
2011 1120124 2252569364
2012 1092113 2197331356
2013 1129497 2273677461
2014 1033245 2080955430
2015 969552 1953647280
2016 953248 1921747968
2017 923305 1862306185
2018 959075 1935413350
2019 895742 1808503098

sx sy
Sumas 32184.00 15499571.00 31181260732.00
n datos
16

Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

Estmacion para X = 2040

Y= 1292050.19967902
Recta de regresion de Y sobre X

inc x = 1
n X y
1 2004 882951.9869
2 2005 894414.7339
3 2006 905871.7653
4 2007 917323.0868
5 2008 928768.7039
6 2009 940208.6225
7 2010 951642.8481
8 2011 963071.3865
9 2012 974494.2433
10 2013 985911.4242
11 2014 997322.9347
12 2015 1008728.7805
13 2016 1020128.9673
14 2017 1031523.5006
15 2018 1042912.3861
16 2019 1054295.6293
17 2020 1065673.2359
18 2021 1077045.2113
19 2022 1088411.5613
20 2023 1099772.2913
21 2024 1111127.4069
22 2025 1122476.9137
23 2026 1133820.8171
24 2027 1145159.1228
25 2028 1156491.8362
26 2029 1167818.9628
27 2030 1179140.5083
28 2031 1190456.4779
29 2032 1201766.8774
30 2033 1213071.7120
31 2034 1224370.9874
32 2035 1235664.7089
33 2036 1246952.8820
34 2037 1258235.5122
35 2038 1269512.6050
36 2039 1280784.1656
37 2040 1292050.1997
38 2041 1303310.7125
39 2042 1314565.7095
40 2043 1325815.1962
 Ln(x) (Ln(x))^2 Ln(x*y) y*Ln(x)
7.6029 57.8041 20.9697 4853995.7711
7.6034 57.8117 20.8839 4452930.8233
7.6039 57.8193 21.2163 6206278.7102
7.6044 57.8268 21.3645 7194443.3416
7.6049 57.8344 21.6190 9275895.1304
7.6054 57.8420 21.5745 8868328.6101
7.6059 57.8496 21.4716 7997654.1832
7.6064 57.8571 21.5353 8520097.0686
7.6069 57.8647 21.5105 8307577.4860
7.6074 57.8723 21.5447 8592514.4981
7.6079 57.8798 21.4561 7860801.9798
7.6084 57.8874 21.3930 7376714.6884
7.6089 57.8949 21.3765 7253140.7095
7.6094 57.9025 21.3451 7025766.1713
7.6099 57.9100 21.3836 7298428.5903
7.6104 57.9175 21.3158 6816916.9537

121.71 925.77 341.96 117901484.72

A= -173809469.50 -1.73809469503896
B= 22977075.97 2.2977075967156

Y= -173809469.50 _+
A

X Y
MIN MIN
2004 585650
MAX MAX
 2019 1219727

Regresion Lineal
1285000

1185000

1085000

985000

885000

785000

685000

585000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
 y^2
407605633600.0000
342985922500.0000
666177542809.0000
895086288100.0000
1487733954529.0000
1359691259364.0000
1105669074064.0000
1254677775376.0000
1192710804769.0000
1275763473009.0000
1067595230025.0000
940031080704.0000
908681749504.0000
852492123025.0000
919824855625.0000
802353730564.0000

15479080497567.00 0.00 0.00

r (pearson) = -18875.4269747121

22977075.97 *LnX
B
019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Cuadro Nº 1
PERÚ: Producto Bruto Interno
por Años, según Departamentos
Valores a Precios Constantes de 2007
(Miles de soles)

Departamento 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Puno 5 888 474 6 328 455 6 587 873 6 980 479 7 384 505 7 734 458 8 294 320
5888.474 6328.455 6587.873 6980.479 7384.505 7734.458 8294.32

PERÚ: PRODUCTO BRUTO INTERNO TOTAL Y POR HABITANTE, 1950-2021

Valores a precios constantes de 2007

Producto Bruto Interno

Producto Bruto Interno
por habitante

Año Población1/
Tasas
Millones de Anuales
Soles
Soles de
Crecimiento

2004 257,770 5.0 27,492,091 9,376

2005 273,971 6.3 27,722,342 9,883
2006 294,598 7.5 27,934,784 10,546
2007 319,693 8.5 28,122,158 11,368
2008 348,870 9.1 28,300,372 12,327
2009 352,693 1.1 28,485,319 12,382
2010 382,081 8.3 28,692,915 13,316
2011 406,256 6.3 28,905,725 14,055
2012 431,199 6.1 29,113,162 14,811
2013 456,435 5.9 29,341,346 15,556
2014 467,308 2.4 29,616,414 15,779
2015 482,506 3.3 29,964,499 16,103
2016 501,581 4.0 30,422,831 16,487
2017 514,215 2.5 30,973,992 16,602
2018 534,626 4.0 31,562,130 16,939
2019 546,605 2.2 32,131,400 17,012
2020P/ 486,737 -11.0 32,625,948 14,919
2021E/ 551,714 13.3 33,035,304 16,701

Hasta el año 1994 se tomo del documeto Perú: Estimaciones y Proyecciones de población 1950 - 2050 y a partir del año 1995 se toma del documento Perú:
1/

Estimaciones y Proyecciones de la Población por Departamento, 1995 - 2030

Fuente: Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática.
 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019P/ 2020P/ 2021E/
8 487 313 8 519 702 9 075 999 9 434 737 9 666 999 9 803 780 8 703 309 9 696 575
8487.313 8519.702 9075.999 9434.737 9666.999 9803.78 8703.309 9696.575

2021

2007 5888.474 8.52

Producto Bruto Interno
2008 6328.455 9.13
por habitante
2009 6587.873 1.10
2010 6980.479 8.33
Tasas
Anuales 2011 7384.505 6.33
de 2012 7734.458 6.14
Crecimiento
2013 8294.32 5.85
2014 8487.313 2.38
4.1 2015 8519.702 3.25
5.4 6.28506033 2016 9075.999 3.95
6.7 7.52889904 2017 9434.737 2.52
7.8 8.51838777 2018 9666.999 3.97
8.4 9.1265683 2019 9803.78 2.24
0.4 1.09582366 2020 8703.309
7.5 8.33245911 2021 9696.575
5.5 6.3271924 #N/A
5.4 6.13972471 #N/A
5.0 5.85251821 #N/A
1.4 2.38215737 #N/A
2.1 3.25224477 #N/A
2.4 3.95331872 #N/A
0.7 2.51883544 #N/A
2.0 3.96935134 #N/A
0.4 2.24063177 #N/A
-12.3 -10.9526989 #N/A
11.9 13.3495091

oma del documento Perú: