0.

45

0.4

0.35

0.3

Probabilidad
0.25

0.2

0.15
0.1
0.1

0.05

0
10
 P(D<=20) = 0.3
(V-C)/(V+H) =0.1852
P(D<=10) =0.1
𝒄(𝒚^∗=𝟏𝟎) = (
125∑_(𝑫=𝟏𝟎)^

𝒄(𝒚^∗=𝟑𝟎) = (
125∑_(𝑫=𝟑𝟎)^
𝒄(𝒚^∗=𝟒𝟎) = (
125∑_(𝑫=𝟒𝟎)^
 a.

Demanda (cientos) Probabilidad

10 0.1
20 0.2
30 0.4
40 0.3
0.45
0.4
0.4

0.35
0.3
0.3
Probabilidad

0.25
0.2
0.2

0.15
0.1
0.1

0.05

0
10 20 30 40
Demanda

b.

C= $ 100.00
H= $ 10.00
V= $ 125.00

D 10 20 30 40

PD(d) 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3

0.1 0.3 0.7 1

Solución

V-C = 0.1852
V+H

P(D<=y-1) = 0.1 <= 0.1852 <= 0.3 = P(D<=y)

P(D<=10) = 0.1 <= 0.1852 <= 0.3 = P(D<=20)

---------> y* = 20

c. Grafica de la cantidad óptima a ordenar

Demanda (cientos) Probabilidad acumulada

10 0.1
20 0.3
30 0.7
40 1

1.2

1
1

0.8
0.7

0.6

0.4
0.3

0.2
0.1

0
10 20 30 40
d. ¿Cuál es el C(y*)

𝒄(𝒚^∗=𝟐𝟎) = (𝟏𝟎𝟎)(𝟐𝟎)+𝟏𝟎∑24_(𝑫=𝟏𝟎)^𝟏𝟎▒ 〖 (𝟐𝟎−𝑫)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d) +

125∑_(𝑫=𝟐𝟎)^𝟒𝟎▒ 〖 (𝑫−𝟐𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)
C(20) = 2000 + 10[(20-10)*0.1] + 125[(20-20)*0.2 + (30-20)*0.4 + (40-20)*0.3]

C(20) = 2000 + 10*1 + 125[0+4+6]

C(20) = $ 3,260.00

e. Para diferentes valores de "y", calcular C(y) y mostrar gráficamente que la cantidad
óptima encontrada en (a) miniza el costo total esperado.

𝒄(𝒚^∗=𝟏𝟎) = (𝟏𝟎𝟎)(𝟏𝟎)+𝟏𝟎∑24_(𝑫=𝟎)^𝟎▒ 〖 (𝟏𝟎−𝑫)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d) +

125∑_(𝑫=𝟏𝟎)^𝟒𝟎▒ 〖 (𝑫−𝟏𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)
C(10) = 1000 + 10[0] + 125[(10-10)*0.1 + (20-10)*0.2 + (30-10)*0.4+(40-10)*0.3]

C(10) = 1000 + 0 + 125[0+2+8+9]

C(10) = $ 3,375.00

𝒄(𝒚^∗=𝟑𝟎) = (𝟏𝟎𝟎)(𝟑𝟎)+𝟏𝟎∑24_(𝑫=𝟏𝟎)^𝟐𝟎▒ 〖 (𝟑𝟎−𝑫)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d) +

125∑_(𝑫=𝟑𝟎)^𝟒𝟎▒ 〖 (𝑫−𝟑𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)
C(30) = 3000 + 10[(30-10)*0.1+(30-20)*0.2] + 125[(30-30)*0.4 + (40-30)*0.3 ]

C(30) = 3000 + 10[2+2]+ 125[0+3]

C(30)= $ 3,415.00
𝒄(𝒚^∗=𝟒𝟎) = (𝟏𝟎𝟎)(𝟒𝟎)+𝟏𝟎∑24_(𝑫=𝟏𝟎)^𝟑𝟎▒ 〖 (𝟑𝟎−𝑫)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d) +
125∑_(𝑫=𝟒𝟎)^𝟒𝟎▒ 〖 (𝑫−𝟑𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)
C(40) = 4000 + 10[(40-10)*0.1+(40-20)*0.2+(40-30)*0.4] + 125[(40-40)*0.3 ]

C(40) = 4000 + 10[3+4+4]+ 125[0]

C(40)= $ 4,110.00
$4,500.00

$4,000.00

$3,500.00 $3,375.00 $3,415.00

y* C(y*) $3,260.00

10 $ 3,375.00 $3,000.00

20 $ 3,260.00 C(y*) $2,500.00

$2,000.00
30 $ 3,415.00
$1,500.00
40 $ 4,110.00
$1,000.00

$500.00

$-
10 20 30

y*

f.
Si en el almacén hay en existencia 20 cientos de cuadernos:
¿Cuántos cuadernos se ordena y cuál es el costo total esperado?

Como X= Y*=20, no se ordena.

C(𝒚∗=𝟐𝟎) = 𝟏𝟎∑_(𝑫=𝟏𝟎)^𝟏𝟎▒ 〖 (𝟐𝟎−𝑫)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d) +

125∑_(𝑫=𝟐𝟎)^𝟒𝟎▒ 〖 (𝑫−𝟐𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)
C(20) = 10[(20-10)*0.1] + 125[(20-20)*0.2 + (30-20)*0.4 + (40-20)*0.3]

C(20) = 10*1 + 125[0+4+6]

C(20) = $ 1,260.00
g. Si están almacenados 5000 cuadernos (50 cientos), ¿Cuál es la politica óptima y el costo

Como x= 50 >= 20 = y*, no se ordena.

C(𝒚∗=𝟐𝟎) = 𝟏𝟎∑_(𝑫=𝟏𝟎)^𝟏𝟎▒ 〖 (𝟐𝟎−𝑫)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d) +

125∑_(𝑫=𝟐𝟎)^𝟒𝟎▒ 〖 (𝑫−𝟐𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)

C(20) = 10[(20-10)*0.1] + 125[(20-20)*0.2 + (30-20)*0.4 + (40-20)*0.3]

C(20) = 10*1 + 125[0+4+6]

C(20) = $ 1,260.00
〗 (d) +

amente que la cantidad

)+

0-10)*0.3]

(d) +
 (d) +

$4,110.00

$3,415.00
$3,260.00

20 30 40

y*

40-20)*0.3]
 la politica óptima y el costo total esperado?

40-20)*0.3]
a.

Estime la media y la varia

Años
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

b.

𝑃((𝐷−34)/14
(𝒚^∗−𝟑𝟒)/(𝟏𝟒.𝟑𝟎
c.

d.
stime la media y la varianza de la demanda de ventiladores cada verano

Ventiladores vendidos
30 Media= 34
50
30 Varianza= 204.4444
60
10 Desviación Estándar 14.30
40
30
30
20
40

C= $ 40.00
H= C-Pnv= $ 11.00
V= $ 60.00

F(Y*)= V-C = 60-40 = 0.28

V+H 60+11

𝑃((𝐷−34)/14.30 ≤ (𝑦^∗−34)/14.30) = 𝑷(𝒛 ≤

(𝒚^∗−𝟑𝟒)/(𝟏𝟒.𝟑𝟎)) = F(𝒚^∗) = 0.28

y*-34 = -0.5778
14.29840706

y*= 25.738
Cantidad optima a pedir es 26 ventiladores cada verano
Ventiladores vendidos fi Fi hi Hi
10 1 1 0.1 0.1
20 1 2 0.1 0.2
30 4 6 0.4 0.6
40 2 8 0.2 0.8
50 1 9 0.1 0.9
60 1 10 0.1 1
10

P(D<= y-1) <= (V-C)/(V+H) <= P(D<= y)

P(D<= 20) <= 0.28 <= P(D<= 30) --------> y* = 30

Cantidad optima a pedir es 30 ventiladores cada verano

Para cada tipo de distribucion se obtienen diferentes cantidades optimas de ventiladores,

cantidades que no se asemejan, por lo que la distribucion de probabilidad no se aproxima a una dis
 0.28

e ventiladores,
o se aproxima a una distribución normal.
 C(Y*)=

C(Y*)=

C(𝒚∗ =𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎) = 0.65∑

C(Y=175,000) = 0.65[(175,000-175,000)*0.

C(y=175,000) =
𝑃((𝐷−257500)/81047.83 ≤
(𝒚^∗−𝟐𝟓𝟕𝟓𝟎𝟎)/(𝟖𝟏𝟎𝟒𝟕.𝟖𝟑)

C=
V=
H=

V-C =
V+H
 Cantidad Vendida x(marca de clase)
100,000 150,000 125000
150,000 200,000 175000
200,000 250,000 225000
250,000 300,000 275000
300,000 350,000 325000
350,000 400,000 375000
400,000 450,000 425000

257500

6568750000

Desviacion estandar=

a.

C= $ 0.50
V= $ 0.65
H= $ -

V-C = 0.65-0.50 = 0.23

V+H 0.65+0

Cantidad Vendida x(marca de clase)

100,000 150,000 125000
150,000 200,000 175000
200,000 250,000 225000
250,000 300,000 275000
300,000 350,000 325000
 350,000 400,000 375000
400,000 450,000 425000

P(D<=y-1) = 0.1 <= 0.23 <= 0.25 = P(D <= y)

P(D<=125,000) = 0.1 <= 0.23 <= 0.25 = P(D <= 175,000)

Rpta: la cantidad optima a ordenar las tarjetas ABC es de 175,000

b.

C(Y*=175,000) = 𝒄(𝒚^∗=𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎) = (𝟎.𝟓𝟎)(𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)+𝟎∑_(𝑫=𝟏𝟐𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)^(𝟏𝟐𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)▒

0.65∑_(𝑫=𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)^(𝟒𝟐𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)▒ 〖 (𝑫−𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)

87,500 + 0 + 0.65[(175,000-175,000)*0.15 + (225,000-175,000)*0.25 + (275,000-175,000)*0.20 + (3

$ 144,375.00

c.

Si X= 220,000 , Y= 175,000
X >= Y* -----> 220,000 >= 175,000

Por lo tanto, no se hace pedidos

C(𝒚∗ =𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎) = 0.65∑_(𝑫=𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)^(𝟒𝟐𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)▒ 〖 (𝑫−𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)

(Y=175,000) = 0.65[(175,000-175,000)*0.15 + (225,000 - 175,000)*0.25 + (275,000 - 175,000)*0.2 + (325,000 - 175,000)*0.15 +

$ 56,875.00

d.
 ((𝐷−257500)/81047.83 ≤ (𝑦^∗−257500)/81047.83) = 𝑷(𝒛 ≤
𝒚^∗−𝟐𝟓𝟕𝟓𝟎𝟎)/(𝟖𝟏𝟎𝟒𝟕.𝟖𝟑)) = F(𝒚^∗) = 0.23

$ 0.50 y*-257500 = -0.736315917

$ 0.65 81047.8253872
$ -
y*= 197823.1961

0.65-0.50 = 0.23 La cantidad óptima de tarjetas navideñas a ordenar

0.65+0
 fi hi Hi x*f (𝑥−𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑚)^2 (𝑥−𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑚)^2*fi
10 0.1 0.1 1250000 17556250000 175562500000
15 0.15 0.25 2625000 6806250000 102093750000
25 0.25 0.5 5625000 1056250000 26406250000
20 0.2 0.7 5500000 306250000 6125000000
15 0.15 0.85 4875000 4556250000 68343750000
10 0.1 0.95 3750000 13806250000 138062500000
5 0.05 1 2125000 28056250000 140281250000
100 257500 656875000000

promedio

varianza

81047.8254

fi hi Hi
10 0.1 0.1 0.23
15 0.15 0.25
25 0.25 0.5
20 0.2 0.7
15 0.15 0.85
 10 0.1 0.95
5 0.05 1

D <= 175,000) --------> y*= 175,000

rjetas ABC es de 175,000

𝑫=𝟏𝟐𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)^(𝟏𝟐𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)▒ 〖 (𝟏𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎−𝑫)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d) +

𝟕𝟓,𝟎𝟎𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)

275,000-175,000)*0.20 + (325,000-175,000)*0.15 + (375,000-175,000)*0.10 + (425,000-175,000)*0.05]

𝟎𝟎)𝑷_𝑫 〗 (d)

0.2 + (325,000 - 175,000)*0.15 + (375,000 - 175,000)*0.1 + (425,000 - 175,000)*0.05]

rjetas navideñas a ordenar es de 197,823
000-175,000)*0.05]