Gerencia de Produccion - Entrega 2

INTEGRANTES GRUPO 10
Subgrupo 16
Asprilla Ibarguen Freylen - Código 1821024481

Buitrago Cortés Cesar Fidel - Código 100200777
Méndez Cárdenas Pedro Fernando - Código 192102
Ñungo Sánchez Daissy Geovanna - Código 1711022
Rodríguez Gómez Diego Fernando - Código 1711020
SEGUNDA ENTREGA
UPO 10
digo 1821024481
Código 100200777
- Código 1921025617
- Código 1711022454
- Código 1711020774
EGA
Ventas anuales en Toneladas
Año Colombia Departamento de Meta La Granja de Juan
2015 942,282.00 329,798.70 49,469.81
2016 910,052.00 318,518.20 47,777.73
2017 905,582.00 316,953.70 47,543.06
2018 935,025.00 327,258.75 49,088.81
2019 932,813.00 326,484.55 48,972.68
EM MAD MSE
PM 112.00 1,824.09 5,506,774.87

SES 267.17 1,918.77 5,076,623.50
Alpha
0.25
Pronóstico de la
Mes dt ft (N:3)
Demanda
Jan-15 0.05772 2,855.64

Feb-15 0.12054 5,963.25
Mar-15 0.03735 1,847.77
Apr-15 0.09168 4,535.43 3,555.55
May-15 0.04754 2,351.71 4,115.48
Jun-15 0.02547 1,259.84 2,911.64
Jul-15 0.14261 7,055.12 2,715.66
Aug-15 0.06791 3,359.58 3,555.55
Sep-15 0.05942 2,939.63 3,891.51
Oct-15 0.14092 6,971.13 4,451.44
Nov-15 0.07810 3,863.52 4,423.45
Dec-15 0.13073 6,467.19 4,591.43
Jan-16 0.12566 6,003.93 5,767.28
Feb-16 0.11150 5,327.43 5,444.88
Mar-16 0.02478 1,183.87 5,932.85
Apr-16 0.06372 3,044.24 4,171.74
May-16 0.17345 8,287.11 3,185.18
Jun-16 0.03540 1,691.25 4,171.74
Jul-16 0.16106 7,695.17 4,340.87
Aug-16 0.03540 1,691.25 5,891.18
Sep-16 0.06372 3,044.24 3,692.56
Oct-16 0.09735 4,650.93 4,143.56
Nov-16 0.05133 2,452.31 3,128.81
Dec-16 0.05664 2,706.00 3,382.49
Jan-17 0.04473 2,126.75 3,269.74
Feb-17 0.05916 2,812.79 2,428.35
Mar-17 0.02165 1,029.07 2,548.51
Apr-17 0.09812 4,665.12 1,989.54
May-17 0.14430 6,860.47 2,835.66
Jun-17 0.10245 4,870.93 4,184.89
Jul-17 0.13420 6,380.24 5,465.51
Aug-17 0.14141 6,723.26 6,037.21
Sep-17 0.05051 2,401.16 5,991.48
Oct-17 0.09235 4,390.70 5,168.22
Nov-17 0.04329 2,058.14 4,505.04
Dec-17 0.06782 3,224.42 2,950.00
Jan-18 0.03045 1,494.79 3,224.42
Feb-18 0.09622 4,723.53 2,259.12
Mar-18 0.05603 2,750.41 3,147.58
Apr-18 0.11449 5,620.40 2,989.57
May-18 0.11937 5,859.57 4,364.78
Jun-18 0.11084 5,441.03 4,743.46
Jul-18 0.01949 956.66 5,640.33
Aug-18 0.09988 4,902.90 4,085.75
Sep-18 0.11206 5,500.82 3,766.86
Oct-18 0.12058 5,919.36 3,786.79
Nov-18 0.03410 1,674.16 5,441.03
Dec-18 0.08648 4,245.20 4,364.78
Jan-19 4,364.78 3,946.24
Feb-19 3,946.24 3,428.05
Mar-19 3,428.05 4,185.40
Apr-19 4,185.40 3,913.02
May-19 3,913.02 3,853.23
Jun-19 3,853.23 3,842.16
Jul-19 3,842.16 3,983.88
Aug-19 3,983.88 3,869.47
Sep-19 3,869.47 3,893.09
Oct-19 3,893.09 3,898.50
Nov-19 3,898.50 3,915.48
Dec-19 3,915.48 3,887.02
3,902.36
Proyección 2019
PM
Mes Dt Ft et
Jan-19 4,364.78 3,946 -418.54
Feb-19 3,946.24 3,428 -518.19
Mar-19 3,428.05 4,185 757.36
Apr-19 4,185.40 3,913 -272.38
May-19 3,913.02 3,853 -59.79
Jun-19 3,853.23 3,842 -11.07
Jul-19 3,842.16 3,984 141.73
Aug-19 3,983.88 3,869 -114.42
Sep-19 3,869.47 3,893 23.62
Oct-19 3,893.09 3,899 5.41
Nov-19 3,898.50 3,915 16.98
Dec-19 3,915.48 3,887 -28.46
3,902
EM MAD MSE
PM -39.81 197.33 94,171
SES 4.06 6.76 329.11
Ft
4,500
4,000
f(x) = 6.35672079777341 x + 3843.31002544163
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Ft Linear ( Ft) Linear ( Ft)

MAPE MAPE (%) DESVIACION ESTÁNDAR
0.77 76.74% 2,346.65 2,280.12

0.80 79.52% 2,253.14 2,398.46
PM
et |et| e^2 |et|/dt ft
6,467.19
-236.65 236.65 56,002.92 0.04 6,467.19
117.45 117.45 13,794.39 0.02 6,351.37
4,748.98 4,748.98 22,552,768.91 4.01 6,095.39
1,127.50 1,127.50 1,271,251.86 0.37 4,867.51
-5,101.93 5,101.93 26,029,676.36 0.62 4,411.69
2,480.50 2,480.50 6,152,859.00 1.47 5,380.55
-3,354.31 3,354.31 11,251,373.49 0.44 4,458.22
4,199.93 4,199.93 17,639,414.09 2.48 5,267.46
648.31 648.31 420,307.65 0.21 4,373.41
-507.37 507.37 257,428.50 0.11 4,041.12
676.50 676.50 457,650.67 0.28 4,193.57
676.50 676.50 457,650.67 0.25 3,758.25
1,143.00 1,143.00 1,306,446.14 0.54 3,495.19
-384.44 384.44 147,796.30 0.14 3,153.08
1,519.44 1,519.44 2,308,700.09 1.48 3,068.01
-2,675.58 2,675.58 7,158,745.36 0.57 2,558.27
-4,024.81 4,024.81 16,199,086.59 0.59 3,084.98
-686.05 686.05 470,660.44 0.14 4,028.86
-914.73 914.73 836,729.68 0.14 4,239.38
-686.05 686.05 470,660.44 0.10 4,774.59
3,590.31 3,590.31 12,890,343.67 1.50 5,261.76
777.52 777.52 604,537.19 0.18 4,546.61
2,446.90 2,446.90 5,987,323.81 1.19 4,507.63
-274.42 274.42 75,305.67 0.09 3,895.26
1,729.63 1,729.63 2,991,632.15 1.16 3,727.55
-2,464.41 2,464.41 6,073,323.24 0.52 3,169.36
397.17 397.17 157,744.04 0.14 3,557.90
-2,630.83 2,630.83 6,921,242.90 0.47 3,356.03
-1,494.79 1,494.79 2,234,388.85 0.26 3,922.12
-697.57 697.57 486,600.24 0.13 4,406.48
4,683.67 4,683.67 21,936,733.21 4.90 4,665.12
-817.15 817.15 667,734.69 0.17 3,738.00
-1,733.95 1,733.95 3,006,593.64 0.32 4,029.23
-2,132.56 2,132.56 4,547,825.41 0.36 4,397.13
3,766.86 3,766.86 14,189,262.96 2.25 4,777.68
119.58 119.58 14,300.09 0.03 4,001.80
4,001.80 4,062.65
4,062.65 4,047.44
4,047.44 4,051.24
4,051.24 4,050.29
4,050.29 4,050.53
4,050.53 4,050.47
4,050.47 4,050.48
4,050.48 4,050.48
4,050.48 4,050.48
4,050.48 4,050.48
4,050.48 4,050.48
4,050.48 4,050.48
4,050.48
PM
|et| e^2 |et|/dt
418.54 175,176.09 0.10
518.19 268,523.89 0.13
757.36 573,592.44 0.22
272.38 74,192.74 0.07
59.79 3,575.02 0.02
11.07 122.60 0.00
141.73 20,086.82 0.04
114.42 13,090.98 0.03
23.62 557.97 0.01
5.41 29.30 0.00
16.98 288.25 0.00
28.46 810.00 0.01
MAPE MAPE (%) DESVIACION ESTÁNDAR

0.05 5.13% 306.87 246.66
0.00 0.17% 18.14 8.45
4,065
4,060
4,055
f(
4,050
4,045
4,040
4,035
1
9 10 11 12
r ( Ft)
9,000.00
8,000.00
7,000.00
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
f(x) = 0.0619575770876333 x + 1353.24
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00
Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16
SES
et [et] e^2 |et|/dt

9,000.00
8,000.00
7,000.00
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
f(x) = 0.0434456286513854 x + 2183.16
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00
463.26 463.26 214,612.60 0.08 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 N
1,023.95 1,023.95 1,048,465.57 0.19
4,911.51 4,911.51 24,122,978.65 4.15
1,823.26 1,823.26 3,324,293.04 0.60
-3,875.42 3,875.42 15,018,862.00 0.47
3,689.30 3,689.30 13,610,937.22 2.18
-3,236.95 3,236.95 10,477,857.31 0.42
3,576.21 3,576.21 12,789,301.15 2.11
1,329.16 1,329.16 1,766,672.33 0.44
-609.81 609.81 371,871.93 0.13
1,741.26 1,741.26 3,031,991.38 0.71
1,052.26 1,052.26 1,107,249.03 0.39
1,368.44 1,368.44 1,872,638.93 0.64
340.29 340.29 115,794.57 0.12
2,038.94 2,038.94 4,157,262.60 1.98
-2,106.85 2,106.85 4,438,802.02 0.45
-3,775.49 3,775.49 14,254,288.13 0.55
-842.08 842.08 709,094.77 0.17
-2,140.86 2,140.86 4,583,288.27 0.34
-1,948.67 1,948.67 3,797,313.46 0.29
2,860.59 2,860.59 8,182,996.10 1.19
155.91 155.91 24,307.63 0.04
2,449.49 2,449.49 6,000,008.47 1.19
670.84 670.84 450,024.64 0.21
2,232.76 2,232.76 4,985,228.82 1.49
-1,554.17 1,554.17 2,415,439.60 0.33
807.49 807.49 652,044.61 0.29
-2,264.37 2,264.37 5,127,380.00 0.40
-1,937.44 1,937.44 3,753,692.60 0.33
-1,034.54 1,034.54 1,070,279.69 0.19
3,708.45 3,708.45 13,752,632.99 3.88
-1,164.90 1,164.90 1,356,986.38 0.24
-1,471.59 1,471.59 2,165,571.47 0.27
-1,522.23 1,522.23 2,317,188.68 0.26
3,103.52 3,103.52 9,631,849.49 1.85
-243.39 243.39 59,239.88 0.06
SES
Mes Dt Ft et |et| e^2 |et|/dt
Jan-19 4,001.80 4,063 60.85 60.85 3,702.49 0.02
Feb-19 4,062.65 4,047 -15.21 15.21 231.41 0.00
Mar-19 4,047.44 4,051 3.80 3.80 14.46 0.00
Apr-19 4,051.24 4,050 -0.95 0.95 0.90 0.00
May-19 4,050.29 4,051 0.24 0.24 0.06 0.00
Jun-19 4,050.53 4,050 -0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00
Jul-19 4,050.47 4,050 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00
Aug-19 4,050.48 4,050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sep-19 4,050.48 4,050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Oct-19 4,050.48 4,050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nov-19 4,050.48 4,050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dec-19 4,050.48 4,050 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
4,050
4,065 Chart Title

4,060
4,055
f(x) = − 0.388066302338836 x + 4053.81550433328
4,050
4,045
4,040
4,035
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Column M Linear (Column M) Linear (Column M)

GRÁFICO DEMANDA ESTACIONARIA PATRÓN PURAMENTE ALEATORIO
DEMANDA CARNE DE RES EN TONELADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN
= 0.0619575770876333 x + 1353.24619941876
Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18
0.0434456286513854 x + 2183.1696344045
ar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18
ALEATORIO
E JUAN DEMANDA CAR

2015
9,000.00
ENERO 2,855.64
8,000.00
FEBRERO 5963.25323
7,000.00 MARZO 1847.76861
6,000.00 ABRIL 4535.43204
5,000.00 MAYO 2351.7055

4,000.00
JUNIO 1259.84223
3,000.00 JULIO 7055.1165
2,000.00 AGOSTO 3359.57929
SEPTIEMBRE 2939.63188
1,000.00
OCTUBRE 6971.12702
Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 0.00
NOVIEMBRE
1 23863.516183 4
DICIEMBRE 6467.19013
E JUAN
Debido a que la demanda de la carne de res, prese

exponencial simple o promedio movil, debido a que est
historica obtenida, se procedera
Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18

2016 2017 2018
6,003.93 2,126.75 1,494.79
5327.4283 2812.79258 4723.52763
1183.87296 1029.07045 2750.4085
3044.24474 4665.11939 5620.39997
8287.11069 6860.4697 5859.56593
1691.24708 4870.93348 5441.0255

7695.17421 6380.23682 956.663825
1691.24708 6723.2603 4902.9021
3044.24474 2401.16439 5500.81699
4650.92947 4390.70061 5919.35741
3 2452.30827
4 2058.14091
5 1674.16169
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2705.99533 3224.42076 4245.19572
2015 2016 2017 2018
nda de la carne de res, presenta un patrón de demanda aleatorio. Se procede a utilizar el metodo de suavización
edio movil, debido a que estos metodos se ajustan a los patrones aleatorios presentados en las graficas de demanda
orica obtenida, se procedera a realizar el calculo del error para obtener el metodo adecuado.
1 12
Mes Toneladas Kilogramos Carne de asar Sobrebarriga Cadera
Jan-19 3946.2382765 3946238.2765 1183871.48294762 315699.062119367 197311.9138246
Feb-19 3428.0453715 3428045.3715 1028413.61144945 274243.629719854 171402.2685749
Mar-19 4185.4042326 4185404.2326 1255621.26979294 334832.338611449 209270.2116322
Apr-19 3913.0207826 3913020.7826 1173906.23477467 313041.662606577 195651.0391291
May-19 3853.2292935 3853229.2935 1155968.78806334 308258.343483557 192661.4646772
Jun-19 3842.1567956 3842156.7956 1152647.03867235 307372.54364596 192107.8397787
Jul-19 3983.8847696 3983884.7696 1195165.43087698 318710.781567194 199194.2384795
Aug-19 3869.4689572 3869468.9572 1160840.68717012 309557.516578698 193473.4478617
Sep-19 3893.0902862 3893090.2862 1167927.08587089 311447.222898904 194654.5143118
Oct-19 3898.5035075 3898503.5075 1169551.05223982 311880.280597284 194925.1753733
Nov-19 3915.4813377 3915481.3377 1174644.401306 313238.507014932 195774.0668843
Dec-19 3887.020917 3887020.917 1166106.27509361 310961.673358295 194351.0458489
Total Anual 46615.544528 46615544.528 13984663.3582578 3729243.56220207 2330777.226376
Toneladas
4500
4000
f(x) = 0.202064719902475 x − 4931.96018051758
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19
Toneladas Linear (Toneladas) Linear (Toneladas)

Hueso Otros Td x % Conversión
591935.741474 1657420.07613 1696882.46 1ton 1000 Kg
514206.805725 1439779.05603 1474059.51
627810.634896 1757869.77771 1799723.82
586953.117387 1643468.72868 1682598.94
577984.394032 1618356.30329 1656888.6
576323.519336 1613705.85414 1652127.42
597582.715438 1673231.60323 1713070.45
580420.343585 1625176.96204 1663871.65
583963.542935 1635097.92022 1674028.82
584775.52612 1637371.47314 1676356.51
587322.200653 1644502.16183 1683656.98
583053.137547 1632548.78513 1671418.99
6992331.67913 19578528.7016 20044684.1
Costos
Salario Mensual $ 925,148.00
Salario Extra -
Contratar $ 350,000.00
Despedir $ 440,000.00
Mantener Inventario 40000.00
Subcontratar -
Periodo Enero Febrero

Demanda 1696882.46 1474059.51
Días Hábiles 23 20
Inventario 824.21 3031.36
Trabajadores Normales 346 346
Contrataciones 343 0
Despidos 0 0
Trabajo sobre Tiempo 0 0
Total Trabajadores 346 346
Producción 1697706.67 1476266.67
Producción Acumulada 1697706.67 3173973.33
Subcontrataciones
Costo MOD $ 320,101,208.00 $ 320,101,208.00
Costo Contra/Desp $ 120,050,000.00 $ -
Costo Mantener Inventario $ 32,968,311.00 $ 121,254,587.90
Costo Subcontratar
CostoTotal del Periodo $ 473,119,519.00 $ 441,355,795.90
Costo Total
Costo Unidad Promedio

Demanda 1696882.46 1474059.51
Inventario 133304.21 250711.36
Ecuación 346 372
Despidos 0 0
Producción 1830186.67 1591466.67
Subcontrataciones
Costo MOD $ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00
Costo Mantener Inventario $ 5,332,168,311.00 $ 10,028,454,587.90
Costo Subcontratar
CostoTotal del Periodo $ 5,806,748,515.00 $ 10,373,534,791.90
Costo Total
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar

31-Jan 28-Feb 31-Mar
Otros
TasaPN/Trabajador (1) 26.6667
Tasa por Turno 213.333333333333
Inventario Inicial 0
Stock de Seguridad 0
Trabajadores Inicial 3
Horas diaria de Trabajo 8
ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUSCIÓN (FUERZA LABORA
Marzo Abril Mayo

1799723.82 1682598.94 1656888.60
22 22 21
854.21 3161.94 3873.35
383 359 370
37 0 11
0 24 0
0 0 0
383 359 370
1797546.67 1684906.67 1657600.00
4971520.00 6656426.67 8314026.67
$ 354,331,684.00 $ 332,128,132.00 $ 342,304,760.00

$ 12,950,000.00 $ 10,560,000.00 $ 3,850,000.00
$ 34,168,453.11 $ 126,477,659.36 $ 154,933,810.39
$ 401,450,137.11 $ 469,165,791.36 $ 501,088,570.39
ESTRATEGIA DE NIVELACIÓN (FUERZA LABORAL
Marzo Abril Mayo

1799723.82 1682598.94 1656888.60
22 22 21
201600.88 269615.27 283766.68
353 354 371
373 373 373
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
373 373 373
1750613.33 1750613.33 1671040.00
5172266.67 6922880.00 8593920.00
$ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 8,064,035,119.77 $ 10,784,610,992.69 $ 11,350,667,143.73
$ 8,409,115,323.77 $ 11,129,691,196.69 $ 11,695,747,347.73
1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun

30-Apr 31-May 30-Jun
Dt 1696882.46 1474059.51
Distribución 2019 % 43%
RATEGIA DE PERSECUSCIÓN (FUERZA LABORAL VARIABLE)
Junio Julio Agosto

1652127.42 1713070.45 1663871.65
22 22 21
3799.26 3795.47 2003.82
352 365 371
0 13 6
18 0 0
0 0 0
352 365 371
1652053.33 1713066.67 1662080.00
9966080.00 11679146.67 13341226.67
$ 325,652,096.00 $ 337,679,020.00 $ 343,229,908.00

$ 7,920,000.00 $ 4,550,000.00 $ 2,100,000.00
$ 151,970,259.85 $ 151,818,889.57 $ 80,152,825.15
$ 485,542,355.85 $ 494,047,909.57 $ 425,482,733.15
RATEGIA DE NIVELACIÓN (FUERZA LABORAL CONSTANTE)
Junio Julio Agosto

1652127.42 1713070.45 1663871.65
22 22 21
382252.59 419795.47 426963.82
354 355 372
373 373 373
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
373 373 373
1750613.33 1750613.33 1671040.00
10344533.33 12095146.67 13766186.67
$ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 15,290,103,593.18 $ 16,791,818,889.57 $ 17,078,552,825.15
$ 15,635,183,797.18 $ 17,136,899,093.57 $ 17,423,633,029.15
1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep

30-Jul 31-Aug 30-Sep
Marzo Abril Mayo
1799723.82 1682598.94 1656888.60
Septiembre Octubre Noviembre

1674028.82 1676356.51 1683656.98
22 22 21
3495.00 2658.49 3481.51
357 357 376
0 0 19
14 0 0
0 0 0
357 357 376
1675520.00 1675520.00 1684480.00
15016746.67 16692266.67 18376746.67
$ 330,277,836.00 $ 330,277,836.00 $ 347,855,648.00

$ 6,160,000.00 $ - $ 6,650,000.00
$ 139,799,901.88 $ 106,339,573.47 $ 139,260,565.25
$ 476,237,737.88 $ 436,617,409.47 $ 493,766,213.25

1674028.82 1676356.51 1683656.98
22 22 21
503548.33 577805.16 565188.18
355 356 373
373 373 373
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
373 373 373
1750613.33 1750613.33 1671040.00
15516800.00 17267413.33 18938453.33
$ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 20,141,933,235.21 $ 23,112,206,240.13 $ 22,607,527,231.92
$ 20,487,013,439.21 $ 23,457,286,444.13 $ 22,952,607,435.92
1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

31-Oct 30-Nov 31-Dec
Junio Julio Agosto Septiembre
1652127.42 1713070.45 1663871.65 1674028.82
Diciembre
1671418.99
23
329.19
340
0
36
0
340
1668266.67
20045013.33
$ 314,550,320.00
$ 15,840,000.00
$ 13,167,459.89
$ 343,557,779.89
$ 5,441,431,952.81
$ 271.46
Diciembre
1671418.99
23
723955.85
340
373
0
0
0
373
1830186.67
20768640.00
$ 345,080,204.00
$ -
$ 28,958,234,126.55
$ 29,303,314,330.55
$ 193,810,774,744.81
$ 9,331.90
Octubre Noviembre Diciembre
1676356.51 1683656.98 1671418.99
Ventas Anuales en toneladas
Año Colombia Departamento de Meta
2015 320,305.00 112,106.75
2016 356,611.00 124,813.85
2017 371,347.00 129,971.45
2018 410,270.00 143,594.50
2019 367,408.00 128,592.80
EM MAD
SED 50.40 891.21
Regresión Lineal 0.0 737.33
Pendiente Gt 19.60
Intersección St 1,381.34
Alpha 0.25
Beta 0.35
Pronóstico de la
Mes Periodo
demanda
Jan-15 0.05219
Feb-15 0.03808
Mar-15 0.09302
Apr-15 0.12269
May-15 0.04981
Jun-15 0.06314
Jul-15 0.06314
Aug-15 0.12040
Sep-15 0.11597
Oct-15 0.08426
Nov-15 0.11812
Dec-15 0.07919
Jan-16 1 0.02563
Feb-16 2 0.04898
Mar-16 3 0.10634
Apr-16 4 0.11981
May-16 5 0.04322
Jun-16 6 0.13401
Jul-16 7 0.11488
Aug-16 8 0.07263
Sep-16 9 0.07041
Oct-16 10 0.07263
Nov-16 11 0.13223
Dec-16 12 0.05921
Jan-17 13 0.14961
Feb-17 14 0.02985
Mar-17 15 0.07900
Apr-17 16 0.15805
May-17 17 0.07180
Jun-17 18 0.07738
Jul-17 19 0.02838
Aug-17 20 0.04782
Sep-17 21 0.04799
Oct-17 22 0.14410
Nov-17 23 0.12358
Dec-17 24 0.04245
Jan-18 25 0.02412
Feb-18 26 0.14082
Mar-18 27 0.05664
Apr-18 28 0.15475
May-18 29 0.05040
Jun-18 30 0.15267
Jul-18 31 0.08051
Aug-18 32 0.07909
Sep-18 33 0.13707
Oct-18 34 0.07909
Nov-18 35 0.07040
Dec-18 36 0.11487
Jan-19 37
Feb-19 38
Mar-19 39
Apr-19 40
May-19 41
Jun-19 42
Jul-19 43
Aug-19 44
Sep-19 45
Oct-19 46
Nov-19 47
Dec-19 48
La Granja de Juan
16,816.01
18,722.08
19,495.72
21,539.18
19,288.92
MSE MAPE MAPE (%) DESVIACION ESTÁNDAR

1,033,527.70 0.66 66.26% 1,016.63 1,114.01
690,152.26 0.60 59.57% 830.75 921.66
Regresión Lineal
dt ft et |et| e^2 |et|/dt
877.60
640.40
1,564.17
2,063.13
837.68
1,061.70
1,061.70
2,024.68
1,950.23
1,416.86
1,986.23
1,331.62
479.91 1,400.94 921.03 921.03 848,297.06 1.92
916.98 1,420.54 503.55 503.55 253,566.07 0.55
1,990.87 1,440.14 -550.74 550.74 303,309.40 0.28
2,243.16 1,459.74 -783.42 783.42 613,743.19 0.35
809.21 1,479.34 670.12 670.12 449,067.37 0.83
2,509.02 1,498.94 -1,010.08 1,010.08 ### 0.40
2,150.81 1,518.54 -632.27 632.27 399,765.39 0.29
1,359.81 1,538.14 178.33 178.33 31,800.45 0.13
1,318.25 1,557.74 239.49 239.49 57,356.86 0.18
1,359.81 1,577.34 217.53 217.53 47,318.14 0.16
2,475.65 1,596.94 -878.71 878.71 772,134.38 0.35
1,108.59 1,616.54 507.95 507.95 258,013.45 0.46
2,916.77 1,636.14 -1,280.63 1,280.63 ### 0.44
581.94 1,655.74 1,073.80 1,073.80 ### 1.85
1,540.20 1,675.34 135.15 135.15 18,264.47 0.09
3,081.20 1,694.94 -1,386.26 1,386.26 ### 0.45
1,399.71 1,714.54 314.84 314.84 99,121.82 0.22
1,508.67 1,734.14 225.48 225.48 50,839.13 0.15
553.21 1,753.74 1,200.54 1,200.54 ### 2.17
932.37 1,773.34 840.97 840.97 707,237.88 0.90
935.58 1,792.94 857.37 857.37 735,077.77 0.92
2,809.33 1,812.54 -996.79 996.79 993,587.57 0.35
2,409.25 1,832.14 -577.10 577.10 333,046.90 0.24
827.50 1,851.74 1,024.24 1,024.24 ### 1.24
519.57 1,871.34 1,351.77 1,351.77 ### 2.60
3,033.24 1,890.94 -1,142.30 1,142.30 ### 0.38
1,220.06 1,910.54 690.49 690.49 476,772.16 0.57
3,333.21 1,930.14 -1,403.06 1,403.06 ### 0.42
1,085.61 1,949.74 864.13 864.13 746,727.26 0.80
3,288.39 1,969.35 -1,319.04 1,319.04 ### 0.40
1,734.21 1,988.95 254.73 254.73 64,889.86 0.15
1,703.47 2,008.55 305.07 305.07 93,069.47 0.18
2,952.42 2,028.15 -924.28 924.28 854,284.35 0.31
1,703.47 2,047.75 344.27 344.27 118,524.17 0.20
1,516.25 2,067.35 551.09 551.09 303,701.88 0.36
2,474.22 2,086.95 -387.27 387.27 149,978.28 0.16
2,106.55
2,126.15
2,145.75
2,165.35
2,184.95
2,204.55
2,224.15
2,243.75
2,263.35
2,282.95
2,302.55
2,322.15
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00 f(x)
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
1 2
SED 3,500.00
St Gt ft et |et| e^2 |et|/dt 3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00 f(x) =
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
1,381.34 19.60 Jan-15 Mar
1,175.58 -59.27 1,400.94 921.03 921.03 848,297.06 1.92
1,051.66 -81.90 1,116.31 199.32 199.32 39,728.76 0.22
1,204.56 0.28 969.75 -1,021.12 1,021.12 ### 0.51
1,464.49 91.16 1,204.84 -1,038.32 1,038.32 ### 0.46
1,391.83 33.82 1,555.64 746.43 746.43 557,158.42 0.92
1,704.94 131.57 1,425.65 -1,083.37 1,083.37 ### 0.43
1,947.98 170.59 1,836.52 -314.29 314.29 98,778.75 0.15
1,971.53 119.12 2,118.57 758.76 758.76 575,716.45 0.56
1,927.33 61.96 2,090.65 772.41 772.41 596,609.99 0.59
1,847.41 12.30 1,989.29 629.48 629.48 396,244.14 0.46
2,016.77 67.27 1,859.71 -615.94 615.94 379,378.69 0.25
1,857.00 -12.19 2,084.05 975.46 975.46 951,518.33 0.88
2,109.75 80.54 1,844.81 -1,071.96 1,071.96 ### 0.37
1,808.34 -53.15 2,190.29 1,608.35 1,608.35 ### 2.76
1,688.16 -76.61 1,755.19 215.00 215.00 46,223.75 0.14
1,959.81 45.28 1,611.55 -1,469.66 1,469.66 ### 0.48
1,865.07 -3.73 2,005.09 605.39 605.39 366,494.49 0.43
1,772.24 -34.91 1,861.34 352.67 352.67 124,379.59 0.23
1,432.57 -141.58 1,737.33 1,184.13 1,184.13 ### 2.14
1,165.94 -185.34 1,291.00 358.63 358.63 128,613.19 0.38
923.01 -205.50 980.60 45.02 45.02 2,027.15 0.05
1,189.09 -40.45 717.51 -2,091.83 2,091.83 ### 0.74
1,453.68 66.32 1,148.64 -1,260.61 1,260.61 ### 0.52
1,363.45 11.52 1,519.99 692.49 692.49 479,549.13 0.84
1,164.01 -62.31 1,374.97 855.40 855.40 731,709.72 1.65
1,569.00 101.24 1,101.69 -1,931.55 1,931.55 ### 0.64
1,583.01 70.71 1,670.24 450.19 450.19 202,668.05 0.37
2,091.27 223.85 1,653.72 -1,679.49 1,679.49 ### 0.50
2,063.71 135.86 2,315.12 1,229.51 1,229.51 ### 1.13
2,505.74 243.02 2,199.57 -1,088.82 1,088.82 ### 0.33
2,555.87 175.51 2,748.76 1,014.54 1,014.54 ### 0.59
2,518.28 100.92 2,731.38 1,027.91 1,027.91 ### 0.60
2,727.74 138.91 2,619.21 -333.21 333.21 111,031.12 0.11
2,610.59 49.29 2,866.65 1,163.18 1,163.18 ### 0.68
2,386.29 -46.47 2,659.87 1,143.62 1,143.62 ### 0.75
2,361.81 -38.77 2,339.83 -134.39 134.39 18,061.07 0.05
2,323.03
2,284.26
2,245.49
2,206.72
2,167.94
2,129.17
2,090.40
2,051.63
2,012.85
1,974.08
1,935.31
1,896.54
DEMANDA CARNE DE CERDO EN TONELADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN
3,500.00
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00 f(x) = 19.6002533944419 x + 1381.33761868644
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
3,500.00
DEMANDA CARNE DE CERDO EN TONELADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN
3,000.00
2,500.00
2,000.00 f(x) = 0.569366947976349 x − 22664.8996285771
1,500.00
1,000.00
500.00
0.00
Jan-15 Mar-15May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan
MES DEMANDA CAR
2015
A GRANJA DE JUAN ENERO 877.60
3500
FEBRERO 640.404392
MARZO 1564.1658
3000
ABRIL 2063.13496
MAYO 837.681355
JUNIO
2500 1061.70046
JULIO 1061.70046
AGOSTO 2024.68018
2000
SEPTIEMBRE 1950.22549
OCTUBRE 1416.86488
1500
NOVIEMBRE 1986.23311
DICIEMBRE 1331.61987
1000
500
0
ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRI
22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
A GRANJA DE JUAN
Realizando el analisis de las graficas obtenidas, se pued

por ello que se utiliza para el pronostico del 2019. el me
se permite calcular el pronostico teniendo en cuenta e
qu
May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18

DEMANDA CARNE DE
2016 CERDO EN
2017 2018TONELADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN
479.91 2,916.77 519.57
916.984682 581.944721 3033.24031
1990.87371 1540.1953 1220.05756
2243.15627 3081.20397 3333.20589
809.213996 1399.70575 1085.61115
2509.01676 1508.66684 3288.38952
2150.80943 553.205106 1734.2106
1359.81283 932.368325 1703.47284
1318.24697 935.576174 2952.42102
1359.81283 2809.33182 1703.47284
2475.65218 2409.2456 1516.25495
1108.59041 827.499602 2474.21703
FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE
2015 2016 2017 2018
graficas obtenidas, se puede observar que se presenta cierta tendencia estacionales en los patrones de demanda, es
l pronostico del 2019. el metodo de suavización exponencial doble y el de regresión linea , ya que con estos metodos
ostico teniendo en cuenta estos patrones y eliminando el impacto de los elementos irregulares historicos. es por ello
que se calculara el error para cada uno
DICIEMBRE
Mes Toneladas Kilogramos Milanesa de cerdo Costillas de cerdo Chorizos
Jan-19 2106.5469943 2106546.9943 737291.447998277 315982.049142119 210654.6994281
Feb-19 2126.1472477 2126147.2477 744151.536686332 318922.087151285 212614.7247675
Mar-19 2145.7475011 2145747.5011 751011.625374387 321862.125160451 214574.750107
Apr-19 2165.3477545 2165347.7545 757871.714062441 324802.163169618 216534.7754464
May-19 2184.9480079 2184948.0079 764731.802750496 327742.201178784 218494.8007859
Jun-19 2204.5482613 2204548.2613 771591.891438551 330682.23918795 220454.8261253
Jul-19 2224.1485146 2224148.5146 778451.980126606 333622.277197117 222414.8514647
Aug-19 2243.748768 2243748.768 785312.06881466 336562.315206283 224374.8768042
Sep-19 2263.3490214 2263349.0214 792172.157502715 339502.353215449 226334.9021436
Oct-19 2282.9492748 2282949.2748 799032.24619077 342442.391224615 228294.9274831
Nov-19 2302.5495282 2302549.5282 805892.334878824 345382.429233782 230254.9528225
Dec-19 2322.1497816 2322149.7816 812752.423566879 348322.467242948 232214.978162
Total Anual 26572.180655 26572180.655 9300263.22939094 3985827.0983104 2657218.06554
Toneladas
2350
2300 f(x) = 0.644301805818913 x − 25898.1501544435
2250
2200
2150
2100
2050
2000
1950

Otros Td x % Conversión
842618.797712 1263928.2 1ton 1000 Kg
850458.89907 1275688.35
858299.000428 1287448.5
866139.101786 1299208.65
873979.203143 1310968.8
881819.304501 1322728.96
889659.405859 1334489.11
897499.507217 1346249.26
905339.608575 1358009.41
913179.709932 1369769.56
921019.81129 1381529.72
928859.912648 1393289.87
10628872.2622 15943308.4
Costos
Salario Extra -
Despedir $ 440,000.00
Subcontratar -

Demanda 1263928.20 1275688.35
Inventario 2911.80 5623.45
Despidos 0 0
Producción 1266840.00 1278400.00
Subcontrataciones
Costo MOD $ 149,873,976.00 $ 173,927,824.00
Costo Contra/Desp $ 56,000,000.00 $ 9,100,000.00
Costo Subcontratar
Costo Total

Demanda 1263928.20 1275688.35
Inventario 198411.80 194323.45
Ecuación 162 187
Despidos 0 0
Producción 1462340.00 1271600.00
Subcontrataciones
Costo MOD $ 173,002,676.00 $ 173,002,676.00
Costo Subcontratar
Costo Total
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar

Otros
Tasa por Turno 340
Marzo Abril Mayo

1287448.50 1299208.65 1310968.80
22 22 21
4734.95 7046.30 2697.50
172 174 183
0 2 9
16 0 0
0 0 0
172 174 183
1286560.00 1301520.00 1306620.00
3831800.00 5133320.00 6439940.00
$ 159,125,456.00 $ 160,975,752.00 $ 169,302,084.00

$ 7,040,000.00 $ 700,000.00 $ 3,150,000.00
$ 151,518,533.91 $ 225,481,648.20 $ 86,319,897.31
$ 317,683,989.91 $ 387,157,400.20 $ 258,771,981.31
Marzo Abril Mayo

1287448.50 1299208.65 1310968.80
22 22 21
305634.95 405186.30 429397.50
171 171 180
187 187 187
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
187 187 187
1398760.00 1398760.00 1335180.00
4132700.00 5531460.00 6866640.00
$ 173,002,676.00 $ 173,002,676.00 $ 173,002,676.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 9,780,318,533.91 $ 12,965,961,648.20 $ 13,740,719,897.31
$ 9,953,321,209.91 $ 13,138,964,324.20 $ 13,913,722,573.31
1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun

Dt 1263928.20 1275688.35
Junio Julio Agosto

1322728.96 1334489.11 1346249.26
22 22 21
3928.54 879.43 4090.17
177 178 189
0 1 11
6 0 0
0 0 0
177 178 189
1323960.00 1331440.00 1349460.00
7763900.00 9095340.00 10444800.00
$ 163,751,196.00 $ 164,676,344.00 $ 174,852,972.00

$ 2,640,000.00 $ 350,000.00 $ 3,850,000.00
$ 125,713,281.25 $ 28,141,800.02 $ 130,885,453.62
$ 292,104,477.25 $ 193,168,144.02 $ 309,588,425.62
Junio Julio Agosto

1322728.96 1334489.11 1346249.26
22 22 21
505428.54 569699.43 558630.17
173 174 183
187 187 187
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
187 187 187
1398760.00 1398760.00 1335180.00
8265400.00 9664160.00 10999340.00
$ 173,002,676.00 $ 173,002,676.00 $ 173,002,676.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 16,173,713,281.25 $ 18,230,381,800.02 $ 17,876,165,453.62
$ 16,346,715,957.25 $ 18,403,384,476.02 $ 18,049,168,129.62
1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep

Marzo Abril Mayo
1287448.50 1299208.65 1310968.80

1358009.41 1369769.56 1381529.72
22 22 21
7440.76 6511.19 3001.48
182 183 193
0 1 10
7 0 0
0 0 0
182 183 193
1361360.00 1368840.00 1378020.00
11806160.00 13175000.00 14553020.00
$ 168,376,936.00 $ 169,302,084.00 $ 178,553,564.00

$ 3,080,000.00 $ 350,000.00 $ 3,500,000.00
$ 238,104,242.04 $ 208,358,165.29 $ 96,047,223.37
$ 409,561,178.04 $ 378,010,249.29 $ 278,100,787.37

1358009.41 1369769.56 1381529.72
22 22 21
599380.76 628371.19 582021.48
175 176 185
187 187 187
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
187 187 187
1398760.00 1398760.00 1335180.00
12398100.00 13796860.00 15132040.00
$ 173,002,676.00 $ 173,002,676.00 $ 173,002,676.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 19,180,184,242.04 $ 20,107,878,165.29 $ 18,624,687,223.37
$ 19,353,186,918.04 $ 20,280,880,841.29 $ 18,797,689,899.37
1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

1322728.96 1334489.11 1346249.26 1358009.41
Diciembre
1393289.87
23
1671.61
178
0
15
0
178
1391960.00
15944980.00
$ 164,676,344.00
$ 6,600,000.00
$ 53,491,416.27
$ 224,767,760.27
$ 3,710,944,457.53
$ 232.73
Diciembre
1393289.87
23
651071.61
170
187
0
0
0
187
1462340.00
16594380.00
$ 173,002,676.00
$ -
$ 20,834,291,416.27
$ 21,007,294,092.27
$ 182,222,612,037.53
$ 10,980.98
1369769.56 1381529.72 1393289.87
Ventas Anuales en Toneladas
Año Colombia Departamento de Meta
2015 1,424,387.00 498,535.45
2016 1,478,924.00 517,623.40
2017 1,563,569.00 547,249.15
2018 1,629,648.00 570,376.80
2019 1,693,178.00 592,612.30
EM MAD
SED 440.14 440.14
SET -10.40 236.76
Pendiente Gt 38.21
Intersección St 6,106.68
Alpha 0.25
Beta 0.35
Alpha 0.15
Beta 0.25
Gama 0.25
N 12
M 3
Mes Periodo Pronóstico de la Demanda
Jan-15 -11 0.03472

Feb-15 -10 0.04630
Mar-15 -9 0.06019
Apr-15 -8 0.06944
May-15 -7 0.08102
Jun-15 -6 0.08796
Jul-15 -5 0.09259
Aug-15 -4 0.09954
Sep-15 -3 0.09722
Oct-15 -2 0.10880
Nov-15 -1 0.11574
Dec-15 0 0.10648
Jan-16 1 0.07127
Feb-16 2 0.07721
Mar-16 3 0.08463
Apr-16 4 0.08612
May-16 5 0.08166
Jun-16 6 0.08612
Jul-16 7 0.08909
Aug-16 8 0.07572
Sep-16 9 0.08018
Oct-16 10 0.08537
Nov-16 11 0.08909
Dec-16 12 0.09354
Jan-17 13 0.07286
Feb-17 14 0.07756
Mar-17 15 0.07521
Apr-17 16 0.07991
May-17 17 0.08226
Jun-17 18 0.08343
Jul-17 19 0.08578
Aug-17 20 0.08461
Sep-17 21 0.08931
Oct-17 22 0.09048
Nov-17 23 0.09048
Dec-17 24 0.08813
Jan-18 25 0.07052
Feb-18 26 0.07233
Mar-18 27 0.07957
Apr-18 28 0.08137
May-18 29 0.08318
Jun-18 30 0.08137
Jul-18 31 0.08499
Aug-18 32 0.08499
Sep-18 33 0.08680
Oct-18 34 0.08951
Nov-18 35 0.09042
Dec-18 36 0.09494
Jan-19 37
Feb-19 38
Mar-19 39
Apr-19 40
May-19 41
Jun-19 42
Jul-19 43
Aug-19 44
Sep-19 45
Oct-19 46
Nov-19 47
Dec-19 48
as
La Granja de Juan
74,780.32
77,643.51
82,087.37
85,556.52
88,891.85
MSE MAPE MAPE (%) DESVIACION ESTÁNDAR

304,766.24 0.07 6.67% 552.06
88,176.48 0.04 3.54% 296.95
SED
dt St Gt ft
2596.54
3462.05
4500.67
5193.08
6058.59
6577.90
6924.10
7443.41
7270.31
8135.82
8655.13
7962.72 6106.68 38.21
5533.61 6001.62 -11.93 6144.89
5994.75 5987.97 -12.54 5989.69
6571.17 6121.23 38.49 5975.43
6686.45 6301.03 87.95 6159.73
6340.60 6398.87 91.41 6388.98
6686.45 6562.18 116.58 6490.28
6917.02 6767.46 147.62 6678.75
5879.46 6693.09 69.92 6915.09
6225.31 6646.07 28.99 6763.01
6628.81 6670.75 27.48 6675.06
6917.02 6759.80 49.03 6698.23
7262.87 6934.60 93.05 6808.83
5980.51 6789.13 9.57 7027.65
6366.35 6693.00 -27.42 6798.69
6173.43 6535.69 -72.89 6665.58
6559.27 6468.70 -70.82 6462.80
6752.19 6468.75 -46.02 6397.87
6848.65 6517.71 -12.77 6422.73
7041.57 6635.90 33.06 6504.93
6945.11 6746.27 60.12 6668.96
7330.95 6952.56 111.28 6806.39
7427.41 7182.55 152.83 7063.84
7427.41 7396.60 174.25 7335.38
7234.49 7530.32 160.07 7570.85
6033.82 7316.27 29.13 7690.40
6188.54 7063.46 -69.55 7345.40
6807.39 6929.90 -91.96 6993.91
6962.10 6845.99 -89.14 6837.94
7116.82 6824.56 -65.44 6756.85
6962.10 6793.51 -53.41 6759.12
7271.53 6859.61 -11.58 6740.10
7271.53 6951.01 24.47 6848.03
7426.24 7094.28 66.05 6975.47
7658.31 7301.34 115.40 7160.33
7735.67 7525.32 153.40 7416.74
8122.45 7828.01 205.65 7678.73
8033.66
8239.32
8444.97
8650.63
8856.28
9061.93
9267.59
9473.24
9678.90
9884.55
10090.20
10295.86
DEMANDA CARNE DE POLLO EN TONELADAS LA GR
9000.00
8000.00
7000.00 f(x) = 38.2085643985252 x + 6106.68051696061
6000.00
5000.00
ESVIACION ESTÁNDAR
4000.00
550.18
295.95 3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
SED S
et |et| e^2 |et|/dt Yt Dt/Yt St Gt
6106.68 38.21
611.28 611.28 373658.22 0.11 6144.89 0.90 6159.08 41.76
-5.06 5.06 25.61 0.00 6183.10 0.97 6234.25 50.11
-595.73 595.73 354898.11 0.09 6221.31 1.06 6349.53 66.40
-526.72 526.72 277438.45 0.08 6259.51 1.07 6451.62 75.32
48.38 48.38 2340.71 0.01 6297.72 1.01 6501.33 68.92
-196.17 196.17 38480.90 0.03 6335.93 1.06 6579.98 71.35
-238.26 238.26 56769.27 0.03 6374.14 1.09 6653.51 71.90
1035.62 1035.62 1072514.21 0.18 6412.35 0.92 6622.73 46.23
537.70 537.70 289116.69 0.09 6450.56 0.97 6591.92 26.97
46.25 46.25 2139.41 0.01 6488.77 1.02 6580.66 17.41
-218.79 218.79 47867.73 0.03 6526.97 1.06 6592.69 16.07
-454.04 454.04 206150.65 0.06 6565.18 1.11 6631.86 21.84
1047.13 1047.13 1096489.06 0.18 6603.39 0.91 6663.86 24.38
432.34 432.34 186919.42 0.07 6641.60 0.96 6700.57 27.46
492.14 492.14 242205.68 0.08 6679.81 0.92 6652.08 8.47
-96.47 96.47 9307.27 0.01 6718.02 0.98 6632.95 1.57
-354.32 354.32 125542.39 0.05 6756.23 1.00 6660.36 8.03
-425.92 425.92 181409.40 0.06 6794.43 1.01 6685.42 12.29
-536.64 536.64 287982.68 0.08 6832.64 1.03 6710.46 15.48
-276.15 276.15 76259.15 0.04 6870.85 1.01 6811.46 36.86
-524.57 524.57 275170.68 0.07 6909.06 1.06 6926.65 56.44
-363.58 363.58 132187.29 0.05 6947.27 1.07 7014.12 64.20
-92.03 92.03 8469.96 0.01 6985.48 1.06 7074.76 63.31
336.36 336.36 113136.58 0.05 7023.69 1.03 7072.85 47.00
1656.57 1656.57 2744230.76 0.27 7061.89 0.85 7066.88 33.76
1156.86 1156.86 1338325.90 0.19 7100.10 0.87 7020.18 13.64
186.52 186.52 34791.12 0.03 7138.31 0.95 7024.76 11.38
-124.16 124.16 15416.70 0.02 7176.52 0.97 7017.97 6.84
-359.96 359.96 129573.54 0.05 7214.73 0.99 7041.36 10.98
-202.98 202.98 41202.53 0.03 7252.94 0.96 7024.90 4.12
-531.43 531.43 282418.46 0.07 7291.15 1.00 7022.48 2.48
-423.50 423.50 179354.51 0.06 7329.35 0.99 7097.04 20.50
-450.77 450.77 203193.58 0.06 7367.56 1.01 7152.21 29.17
-497.98 497.98 247987.33 0.07 7405.77 1.03 7209.26 36.14
-318.93 318.93 101717.17 0.04 7443.98 1.04 7261.48 40.16
-443.73 443.73 196893.58 0.05 7482.19 1.09 7350.24 52.31
MES
ENERO
EN TONELADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN 10000
FEBRERO
MARZO
9000
ABRIL
8000
MAYO
7000
JUNIO
6000
JULIO
5000
AGOSTO
SEPTIEMBRE
4000
OCTUBRE
3000
NOVIEMBRE
2000
DICIEMBRE
1000
0
ENERO FEBRERO
17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36
SET
Ct ft et |et| e^2 |et|/dt
0.89
0.93
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.01
1.04
0.97
1.01
1.04
1.05
1.07
0.89 5449.73 -83.88 83.88 7036.46 0.02
0.94 5786.84 -207.91 207.91 43226.35 0.03
0.99 6146.25 -424.91 424.91 180552.64 0.06
1.01 6447.37 -239.08 239.08 57160.84 0.04
0.99 6510.93 170.33 170.33 29012.83 0.03
1.01 6621.07 -65.38 65.38 4274.70 0.01
1.04 6902.00 -15.02 15.02 225.63 0.00
0.95 6545.65 666.18 666.18 443801.13 0.11
0.99 6744.79 519.47 519.47 269852.54 0.08
1.03 6894.22 265.41 265.41 70443.85 0.04
1.05 6954.83 37.81 37.81 1429.73 0.01
1.08 7097.49 -165.38 165.38 27349.09 0.02
0.89 5920.24 -60.28 60.28 3633.28 0.01
0.94 6289.11 -77.25 77.25 5967.06 0.01
0.98 6675.85 502.41 502.41 252419.15 0.08
1.01 6745.64 186.36 186.36 34731.28 0.03
1.00 6581.31 -170.88 170.88 29200.62 0.03
1.01 6734.05 -114.60 114.60 13132.75 0.02
1.04 6953.33 -88.24 88.24 7786.86 0.01
0.97 6402.40 -542.72 542.72 294541.80 0.08
1.01 6811.50 -519.45 519.45 269831.15 0.07
1.04 7213.73 -213.68 213.68 45658.35 0.03
1.05 7452.42 25.00 25.00 625.21 0.00
1.07 7703.77 469.28 469.28 220219.67 0.06
0.88 6348.69 314.86 314.86 99138.30 0.05
0.93 6694.29 505.75 505.75 255787.27 0.08
0.97 6866.38 58.99 58.99 3479.42 0.01
1.00 7084.01 121.90 121.90 14860.43 0.02
1.00 7006.77 -110.05 110.05 12111.29 0.02
1.01 7147.46 185.36 185.36 34357.37 0.03
1.04 7316.93 45.39 45.39 2060.66 0.01
0.98 6805.98 -465.55 465.55 216740.57 0.06
1.02 7192.70 -233.54 233.54 54541.26 0.03
1.05 7465.05 -193.27 193.27 37351.39 0.03
1.06 7622.88 -112.79 112.79 12720.82 0.01
1.08 7777.36 -345.10 345.10 119091.63 0.04
6530.68
13731.19
21639.36
29702.37
37040.60
44765.36
53869.11
58199.88
67788.78
77371.32
85939.17
95504.34
2015 2016 2017 2018
2596.53880 5533.61318
DEMANDA CARNE DE POLLO EN TONELADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN
5980.51363 6033.82329
10000 3462.051736111 5994.74762 6366.35321 6188.53671
9000 4500.667256944 6571.16566 6173.43342 6807.39038
8000 5193.077604167 6686.44927 6559.27301 6962.1038
6058.590538194 6340.59844 6752.1928 7116.81722
7000
6577.898298611 6686.44927 6848.6527 6962.1038
6000
6924.103472222 6917.01648 7041.57249 7271.53063
5000 7443.411232639 5879.46401 6945.1126 7271.53063
4000 7270.308645833 6225.31483 7330.95219 7426.24405
3000 8135.821579861 6628.80746 7427.41208 7658.31418
2000
8655.129340278 6917.01648 7427.41208 7735.67089
7962.718993056 7262.86731 7234.49229 8122.45443
1000
0
ENERO FEBRERO MARZO ABRIL MAYO JUNIO JULIO AGOSTO SEPTIEMBRE O
2015 2016 2017 2018
DEMANDA CARNE DE POLLO EN TONELADAS LA GRANJA D

10000.00
9000.00
8000.00
f(x) = 1.23713118975242 x − 46181.806096293

7000.00
6000.00
5000.00
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-1
Realizando el analisis se puede notar que la demanda posee un comportamiento de una tendencia lineal en una serie de ti
se procede a realizar los respectivos calculos del error teniendo en cuenta la suavización exponencia doble y triple. dando
representa un margen de error muy inferior a la doble, es por ello que se realiza el calculo de los
Realizando el analisis se puede notar que la demanda posee un comportamiento de una tendencia lineal en una serie de ti
se procede a realizar los respectivos calculos del error teniendo en cuenta la suavización exponencia doble y triple. dando
representa un margen de error muy inferior a la doble, es por ello que se realiza el calculo de los
ANJA DE JUAN
TO SEPTIEMBRE OCTUBRE NOVIEMBRE DICIEMBRE
ADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN
Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18
lineal en una serie de tiempo. Sin embargo dado las fluctuaciones existentes
ia doble y triple. dando como resultado que la suavización exponencial triple
realiza el calculo de los pronosticos en base a este.
lineal en una serie de tiempo. Sin embargo dado las fluctuaciones existentes
ia doble y triple. dando como resultado que la suavización exponencial triple
realiza el calculo de los pronosticos en base a este.
Mes Toneladas Kilogramos Alas Pechuga Hueso
Jan-19 6530.6803389 6530680.3389 653068.033886005 3265340.16943003 979602.050829
Feb-19 13731.185558 13731185.558 1373118.55575008 6865592.77875039 2059677.833625
Mar-19 21639.360828 21639360.828 2163936.08282094 10819680.4141047 3245904.124231
Apr-19 29702.366066 29702366.066 2970236.60661879 14851183.033094 4455354.909928
May-19 37040.603141 37040603.141 3704060.31411897 18520301.5705949 5556090.471178
Jun-19 44765.359068 44765359.068 4476535.90684124 22382679.5342062 6714803.860262
Jul-19 53869.109489 53869109.489 5386910.94890976 26934554.7445488 8080366.423365
Aug-19 58199.884683 58199884.683 5819988.46826283 29099942.3413141 8729982.702394
Sep-19 67788.776911 67788776.911 6778877.69111063 33894388.4555531 10168316.53667
Oct-19 77371.317034 77371317.034 7737131.70341466 38685658.5170733 11605697.55512
Nov-19 85939.174443 85939174.443 8593917.44434214 42969587.2217107 12890876.16651
Dec-19 95504.337845 95504337.845 9550433.78446591 47752168.9223296 14325650.6767
Total Anual 592082.15541 592082155.41 59208215.540542 296041077.70271 88812323.31081
Toneladas
120000
100000
f(x) = 262.26696155289 x − 11394023.0203393
80000
60000
40000
20000
0

Otros Td x % Conversión
1632670.08472 3918408.2 1ton 1000 Kg
3432796.38938 8238711.33
5409840.20705 12983616.5
7425591.51655 17821419.6
9260150.7853 22224361.9
11191339.7671 26859215.4
13467277.3723 32321465.7
14549971.1707 34919930.8
16947194.2278 40673266.1
19342829.2585 46422790.2
21484793.6109 51563504.7
23876084.4612 57302602.7
148020538.851 355249293
Costos
Salario Extra -
Despedir $ 440,000.00
Subcontratar -

Demanda 1263928.20 1275688.35
Inventario 2911.80 1623.45
Despidos 0 0
Producción 1266840.00 1274400.00
Subcontrataciones
Costo MOD $ 283,095,288.00 $ 327,502,392.00
Costo Contra/Desp $ 106,400,000.00 $ 16,800,000.00
Costo Subcontratar
Costo Total

Demanda 1263928.20 1275688.35
Inventario 197491.80 192603.45
Ecuación 305 353
Despidos 0 0
Producción 1461420.00 1270800.00
Subcontrataciones
Costo MOD $ 326,577,244.00 $ 326,577,244.00
Costo Subcontratar
Costo Total
1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar

Otros
Tasa por Turno 180
Marzo Abril Mayo

1287448.50 1299208.65 1310968.80
22 22 21
1174.95 846.30 1537.50
325 328 347
0 3 19
29 0 0
0 0 0
325 328 347
1287000.00 1298880.00 1311660.00
3828240.00 5127120.00 6438780.00
$ 300,673,100.00 $ 303,448,544.00 $ 321,026,356.00

$ 12,760,000.00 $ 1,050,000.00 $ 6,650,000.00
$ 32,898,717.17 $ 23,696,442.17 $ 43,049,910.15
$ 346,331,817.17 $ 328,194,986.17 $ 370,726,266.15
Marzo Abril Mayo

1287448.50 1299208.65 1310968.80
22 22 21
303034.95 401706.30 425077.50
322 324 341
353 353 353
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
353 353 353
1397880.00 1397880.00 1334340.00
4130100.00 5527980.00 6862320.00
$ 326,577,244.00 $ 326,577,244.00 $ 326,577,244.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 8,484,978,717.17 $ 11,247,776,442.17 $ 11,902,169,910.15
$ 8,811,555,961.17 $ 11,574,353,686.17 $ 12,228,747,154.15
1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun

Dt 1263928.20 1275688.35
Junio Julio Agosto

1322728.96 1334489.11 1346249.26
22 22 21
1448.54 1479.43 910.17
334 337 356
0 3 19
13 0 0
0 0 0
334 337 356
1322640.00 1334520.00 1345680.00
7761420.00 9095940.00 10441620.00
$ 308,999,432.00 $ 311,774,876.00 $ 329,352,688.00

$ 5,720,000.00 $ 1,050,000.00 $ 6,650,000.00
$ 40,559,121.10 $ 41,424,075.02 $ 25,484,771.92
$ 355,278,553.10 $ 354,248,951.02 $ 361,487,459.92
Junio Julio Agosto

1322728.96 1334489.11 1346249.26
22 22 21
500228.54 563619.43 551710.17
327 328 345
353 353 353
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
353 353 353
1397880.00 1397880.00 1334340.00
8260200.00 9658080.00 10992420.00
$ 326,577,244.00 $ 326,577,244.00 $ 326,577,244.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 14,006,399,121.10 $ 15,781,344,075.02 $ 15,447,884,771.92
$ 14,332,976,365.10 $ 16,107,921,319.02 $ 15,774,462,015.92
1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep

Marzo Abril Mayo
1287448.50 1299208.65 1310968.80

1358009.41 1369769.56 1381529.72
22 22 21
1180.76 1571.19 3521.48
343 346 366
0 3 20
13 0 0
0 0 0
343 346 366
1358280.00 1370160.00 1383480.00
11799900.00 13170060.00 14553540.00
$ 317,325,764.00 $ 320,101,208.00 $ 338,604,168.00

$ 5,720,000.00 $ 1,050,000.00 $ 7,000,000.00
$ 33,061,211.79 $ 43,993,394.63 $ 98,601,320.45
$ 356,106,975.79 $ 365,144,602.63 $ 444,205,488.45

1358009.41 1369769.56 1381529.72
22 22 21
591580.76 619691.19 572501.48
331 333 350
353 353 353
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
353 353 353
1397880.00 1397880.00 1334340.00
12390300.00 13788180.00 15122520.00
$ 326,577,244.00 $ 326,577,244.00 $ 326,577,244.00

$ - $ - $ -
$ 16,564,261,211.79 $ 17,351,353,394.63 $ 16,030,041,320.45
$ 16,890,838,455.79 $ 17,677,930,638.63 $ 16,356,618,564.45
1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

1322728.96 1334489.11 1346249.26 1358009.41
Diciembre
1393289.87
23
1271.61
336
0
30
0
336
1391040.00
15944580.00
$ 310,849,728.00
$ 13,200,000.00
$ 35,604,989.24
$ 359,654,717.24
$ 4,502,164,728.84
$ 282.36
Diciembre
1393289.87
23
640631.61
321
353
0
0
0
353
1461420.00
16583940.00
$ 326,577,244.00
$ -
$ 17,937,684,989.24
$ 18,264,262,233.24
$ 159,718,338,112.84
$ 9,630.90
1369769.56 1381529.72 1393289.87

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INTEGRANTES GRUPO 10

Asprilla Ibarguen Freylen - Código 1821024481

PM 112.00 1,824.09 5,506,774.87

Jan-15 0.05772 2,855.64

Ft Linear ( Ft) Linear ( Ft)

0.77 76.74% 2,346.65 2,280.12

et |et| e^2 |et|/dt ft

MAPE MAPE (%) DESVIACION ESTÁNDAR

et [et] e^2 |et|/dt

4,065 Chart Title

Column M Linear (Column M) Linear (Column M)

DEMANDA CARNE DE RES EN TONELADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN

DEMANDA CARNE DE RES EN TONELADAS LA GRANJA DE JUAN

E JUAN DEMANDA CAR

5,000.00 MAYO 2351.7055

Debido a que la demanda de la carne de res, prese

Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18

8287.11069 6860.4697 5859.56593

1691.24708 4870.93348 5441.0255

Toneladas Linear (Toneladas) Linear (Toneladas)

Periodo Enero Febrero

Periodo Enero Febrero

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUSCIÓN (FUERZA LABORA

Marzo Abril Mayo

$ 354,331,684.00 $ 332,128,132.00 $ 342,304,760.00

$ 401,450,137.11 $ 469,165,791.36 $ 501,088,570.39

ESTRATEGIA DE NIVELACIÓN (FUERZA LABORAL

Marzo Abril Mayo

$ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00

$ 8,409,115,323.77 $ 11,129,691,196.69 $ 11,695,747,347.73

1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun

RATEGIA DE PERSECUSCIÓN (FUERZA LABORAL VARIABLE)

Junio Julio Agosto

$ 325,652,096.00 $ 337,679,020.00 $ 343,229,908.00

$ 485,542,355.85 $ 494,047,909.57 $ 425,482,733.15

RATEGIA DE NIVELACIÓN (FUERZA LABORAL CONSTANTE)

Junio Julio Agosto

$ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00

$ 15,635,183,797.18 $ 17,136,899,093.57 $ 17,423,633,029.15

1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep

Septiembre Octubre Noviembre

$ 330,277,836.00 $ 330,277,836.00 $ 347,855,648.00

$ 476,237,737.88 $ 436,617,409.47 $ 493,766,213.25

Septiembre Octubre Noviembre

$ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00 $ 345,080,204.00

$ 20,487,013,439.21 $ 23,457,286,444.13 $ 22,952,607,435.92

1-Oct 1-Nov 1-Dec

MSE MAPE MAPE (%) DESVIACION ESTÁNDAR

dt ft et |et| e^2 |et|/dt

St Gt ft et |et| e^2 |et|/dt 3,000.00

2,000.00 f(x) = 19.6002533944419 x + 1381.33761868644

2,000.00 f(x) = 0.569366947976349 x − 22664.8996285771

Realizando el analisis de las graficas obtenidas, se pued

May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18

2015 2016 2017 2018

Toneladas Linear (Toneladas) Linear (Toneladas)

Periodo Enero Febrero

Periodo Enero Febrero

1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar

ESTRATEGIA DE PERSECUSCIÓN (FUERZA LABORA

Marzo Abril Mayo

$ 159,125,456.00 $ 160,975,752.00 $ 169,302,084.00

$ 317,683,989.91 $ 387,157,400.20 $ 258,771,981.31