Mes Ventas (Xt) St bt Pt et et/x

ENE 35645 35645 0

FEB 36000 35858.00 170.40 35645.00 355.00 0.01
MAR 36355 36224.36 327.17 36028.40 326.60 0.01
ABR 36710 36646.61 403.23 36551.53 158.47 0.00
MAY 37065 37058.94 410.51 37049.85 15.15 0.00
JUN 37420 37439.78 386.77 37469.45 -49.45 0.00
JUL 37775 37795.62 362.03 37826.55 -51.55 0.00
AGO 38130 38141.06 348.76 38157.65 -27.65 0.00
SEP 38485 38486.93 346.44 38489.82 -4.82 0.00
OCT 38840 38837.35 349.63 38833.37 6.63 0.00
NOV 39195 39191.79 353.48 39186.98 8.02 0.00
DIC 39550 39548.11 355.75 39545.27 4.73 0.00
39903.86
P(ene) 39903.86
P(feb) 40259.6065
P(mar) 40615.3561
MAPE= 0.251%
α 0.6
β 0.8

α 0.25 α 0.85 α 0.9

β 0.85 β 0.25 β 0.9
P(ene) 39986.58 P(ene) 39888.88 P(ene) 39905.00
P(feb) 40306.29 P(feb) 40231.06 P(feb) 40260.00
P(mar) 40625.99 P(mar) 40573.24 P(mar) 40615.00
MAPE= 0.77% MAPE= 0.40% MAPE= 0.12%

α 0.15 α 0.6
β 0.45 β 0.8
P(ene) 39884.62 P(ene) 39903.86
P(feb) 40371.20 P(feb) 40259.61
P(mar) 40857.79 P(mar) 40615.36
MAPE= 1.74% MAPE= 0.25%
Mes Ventas (Xt) St bt Pt et et/x
ENE 19.39 19.39 0
FEB 18.96 19.00 -0.04 19.39 -0.43 0.02
MAR 18.2 18.28 -0.11 18.96 -0.76 0.04
ABR 17.89 17.92 -0.13 18.17 -0.28 0.02
MAY 18.43 18.37 -0.07 17.79 0.64 0.03
JUN 19.98 19.81 0.08 18.29 1.69 0.08
JUL 19.51 19.55 0.04 19.89 -0.38 0.02
AGO 20.63 20.53 0.14 19.59 1.04 0.05
SEP 19.78 19.87 0.06 20.66 -0.88 0.04
OCT 21.25 21.12 0.18 19.93 1.32 0.06
NOV 21.18 21.19 0.17 21.29 -0.11 0.01
DIC 22.14 22.06 0.24 21.36 0.78 0.04
22.30
P(ene) 22.30
P(feb) 22.54
P(mar) 22.77
MAPE= 3.793%
α 0.9
β 0.1
Mes Ventas St bt Pt et et/x α
Ene 1254 1254 0 β
Feb 1297 1272.06 5.42 1254.00 43.00 0.03
Mar 1317 1294.08 10.40 1277.48 39.52 0.03
Abr 1370 1332.00 18.65 1304.48 65.52 0.05
May 1347 1349.12 18.19 1350.65 -3.65 0.00
Jun 1435 1395.74 26.72 1367.31 67.69 0.05
Jul 1433 1426.89 28.05 1422.46 10.54 0.01
Ago 1471 1461.68 30.07 1454.94 16.06 0.01
Sep 1529 1507.40 34.77 1491.76 37.24 0.02
Oct 1571 1554.28 38.40 1542.17 28.83 0.02
Nov 1646 1615.07 45.12 1592.68 53.32 0.03
Dic 1750 1697.91 56.43 1660.19 89.81 0.05
1754.34

P(ene) 1754.34
P(feb) 1810.78
P(mar) 1867.21
MAPE 2.78%
0.42
0.3
Mes Ventas (Xt) St bt Pt et α
ENE 35645 35645 0 β
FEB 36000 35733.75 75.44 35645.00 355.00
MAR 36355 35945.64 191.42 35809.19 545.81
ABR 36710 36280.30 313.17 36137.06 572.94
MAY 37065 36711.35 413.37 36593.47 471.53
JUN 37420 37198.54 476.12 37124.72 295.28
JUL 37775 37699.75 497.44 37674.66 100.34
AGO 38130 38180.39 483.16 38197.19 -67.19
SEP 38485 38618.91 445.22 38663.55 -178.55
OCT 38840 39008.10 397.59 39064.14 -224.14
NOV 39195 39353.02 352.82 39405.69 -210.69
DIC 39550 39666.88 319.70 39705.84 -155.84

P(ene) 39986.58
P(feb) 40306.2872
P(mar) 40625.9909
0.25
0.85
Mes Ventas St bt Pt α
Ene 1254 1254 0 β
Feb 1297 1272 5 1254
Mar 1317 1294 10 1277
Abr 1370 1332 19 1304
May 1347 1349 18 1351
Jun 1435 1396 27 1367
Jul 1433 1427 28 1422
Ago 1471 1462 30 1455
Sep 1529 1507 35 1492
Oct 1571 1554 38 1542
Nov 1646 1615 45 1593
Dic 1750 1698 56 1660

P(ene) 1754
P(feb) 1811
P(mar) 1867
0.42
0.3