TRABAJO ‘’ EJERCICIOS DE PRONÓSTICO DE VENTAS (MÍNIMOS CUADRADOS A TRAVÉS

DEL MÉTODO PROBABILÍSTICO) MEDIENTE LA APLICACIÓN DE LA FORMA GENERAL Y DE

SIMPLIFICACIÓN’’

PRESENTADO POR

DAVID DANIEL ALVAREZ VIANA

JORGE DE LA CRUZ SARMIENTO

PRESENTADO AL DOCENTE:

JAIRO ORELLANO ROBLES

EN EL ÁREA DE:

PLAN. PROG. Y CONTROL PRODUCCIÓN

GRUPO # 2

UNIVERSIDAD DEL ATLANTICO

FACULTAD DE CIENCIAS ECONOMICAS
PROGRAMA ADMINISTRACIÓN DE EMPRESAS
BARRANQUILLA-ATLÁNTICO
DICIEMBRE DEL 2020
 EJERCICIOS PRONÓSTICOS DE VENTAS

1.

Años Ventas Y
1 90
2 115
3 160
4 180
5 240
6 220

Y= Ventas
300
Y= abx
250

200

150

100

50

0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

X= Años

 LINEA RECTA→FORMA GENERAL

Ecuaciones normales:

I. ∑y= a.n + b∑x

II. ∑yx= a∑x + b∑x2

 Años X Ventas Y YX x2 YP Y-YP (Y-YP) 2
1 0 90 0 0 93 -3 9
2 1 115 115 1 122.8 -7.8 60.8
3 2 160 320 4 152.6 7.4 54.8
4 3 180 540 9 182.4 -2.4 5.76
5 4 240 960 16 221.2 18.8 353.4
6 5 220 1100 25 242 -22 484
∑x= 15 ∑y= 1005 ∑yx= 3035 ∑x2 = 30 ∑(Y-YP) 2= 967.8

 Reemplazo (I) → 1005 = 6a + 15b (15)

 Reemplazo (II)→ 3035= 15a + 55b (-6)
 (III)→ 15075= 90a + 225b
 (IV)→-18210= -90a – 330b

 (V)→ -3135 = -105b→ b= 29.8

 Reemplazo en (I)→ 1005= 6a + 15(29.8)

→1005 = 6a + 447
→558 = 6a
→a =93

Yp = a + bx
 Yp1 = 93 + 29.8 (0) = 93 u
 Yp2 = 93 + 29.8 (1) = 122.8 u
 Yp3 = 93 + 29.8 (2) = 152.6 u
 Yp4 = 93 + 29.8 (3) = 182.4 u
 Yp5 = 93 + 29.8 (4) = 212.2 u
 Yp6 = 93 + 29.8 (5) = 242 u

→ Yp7 = 93 + 29.8 (6) Sy= √(Y-YP) 2 /v

→Yp7 ≈ 272 unidades Sy= √967.8 / 4
Sy= 15.6 unidades
  LINEA RECTA→FORMA SIMPLIFICADA

Años X Ventas Y YX x2 YP Y-YP (Y-YP) 2

1 -3 90 -270 9 97 -7 49
2 -2 115 -230 4 120.5 -5.5 30.25
3 -1 160 -160 1 144 16 256
4 1 180 180 1 191 -11 151
5 2 240 480 4 214.5 25.5 650.25
6 3 220 660 9 238 -18 324
∑x= 0 ∑y= 1005 ∑yx= 660 ∑x2 = 28 ∑(Y-YP) 2= 1430.5

 Reemplazando en (I)→ 1005 = 6a + b (0) → 1005 = 6a → a = 167.5

 Reemplazando en (II)→ 660 = a (0) + b (28)

→660 = 28b

→ b = 23.5

 Yp1 = 167.5 + 23.5 (-3) = 97 u

 Yp2 = 167.5 + 23.5 (-2) = 120.5 u
 Yp3 = 167.5 + 23.5 (-1) = 144 u
 Yp4 = 167.5 + 23.5 (1) = 191 u
 Yp5 = 167.5 + 23.5 (2) = 214.5 u
 Yp6 = 167.5 + 23.5 (3) = 238 u

→ Yp7 = 167.5 + 23.5 (4) Sy= √(Y-YP) 2 /v

→Yp7 ≈ 262 unidades Sy= √1430.5 / 4
Sy= 18.9 unidades
  LINEA EXPONENCIAL→FORMA GENERAL

1. Σ log y = n log a +log b Σx

2. Σx log y = log a Σx + log b Σχ²

Años X Ventas Y LogY X x2 YP Y-YP (Y-YP) 2

LogY
1 0 90 1.954 0 93 97.5 -7.5 56.25
2 1 115 2.060 2.060 122.8 118 -3 9
3 2 160 2.204 4.408 152.6 143 17 289
4 3 180 2.255 6.765 182.4 173 7 49
5 4 240 2.380 9.520 221.2 209 31 961
6 5 220 2.342 11.710 242 253 -33 1089
∑x= 15 ∑y= 1005 ∑LogY= Σ x.log ∑x2= ∑(Y-YP) 2=
13.195 Y= 55 2453.25
34.463

 Reemplazo (I) → 13.195 = 6 Loga + 15 Logb (15)

 Reemplazo (II)→ 34.463= 15 Loga + 55 Logb (-6)
 (III)→ 197.925= 90 Loga + 225 Logb
 (IV)→--206.778= -90 Loga – 330 Logb

 (V)→ - 8.853 = -105 Logb → Logb= 0,084

→ b= Anti Log (0.084) → b≈ 1,21

 Reemplazo en (I)→ 13.195= 6 Loga + 15 (0.084)

→13.195 = 6 Loga + 1.26

→11.935 = 6 Log→ Log a = 1.989

→ a= Anti Log (1.989) → a≈ 97.5

 Yp = Y = abx→ Y= 97.5 (1.21) x
 Yp1 = 97.5 (1.21)0 = 97.5 u
 Yp2 = 97.5 (1.21)1 = 118 u
 Yp3 = 97.5 (1.21)2 = 143 u
 Yp4 = 97.5 (1.21)3 = 173 u
 Yp5 = 97.5 (1.21)4 = 209 u
 Yp6 = 97.5 (1.21)5 = 253 u

→ Yp7 = 97.5 (1.21)6 Sy= √(Y-YP) 2 /v

→Yp7 ≈ 306 unidades Sy= √2453.25 / 4
Sy= 24.8 unidades

 LINEA EXPONENCIAL→FORMA SIMPLIFICADA

Años X Ventas Y LogY X LogY x2 YP Y-YP (Y-YP) 2

1 -3 90 1.954 -5.862 9 101.3 -11.3 127.69
2 -2 115 2.060 -4.120 4 117.5 -2.5 6.25
3 -1 160 2.204 -2.204 1 136.3 23.7 561.69
4 1 180 2.255 2.255 1 183.4 -3.4 11.56
5 2 240 2.380 4.760 4 212.7 27.3 745.29
6 3 220 2.342 7.026 9 246 -26.8 718.24
∑x= 0 ∑y= 1005 ∑yx=13.195 Σ x.log Y= ∑x2 = ∑(Y-YP) 2=
1.855 28 2170.72

 Reemplazando en (I)→ 13.195 = 6 Loga + Logb (0) → 13.195 = 6 Loga

→Log a= 2.199 → a= Anti Log (2.199)
→ a ≈ 158.12

 Reemplazando en (II)→ 1.855 = Log a (0) + Logb 28

→ 1.855= 28 Logb → Log b= 0.066
 → b= Anti Log (0.066) → b≈ 1,16

Yp = Y = abx→ Y= 158.12 (1.16) x

 Yp1 = 158.12 (1.16)-3 = 101.30 u
 Yp2 = 158.12 (1.16)-2 = 117.50 u
 Yp3 = 158.12 (1.16)-1 = 136.3 u
 Yp4 = 158.12 (1.16)1 = 183.4 u
 Yp5 = 158.12 (1.16)2 = 212.7 u
 Yp6 = 158.12 (1.16)3 = 246.8 u

→ Yp7 = 158.12 (1.16)4 = Sy= √(Y-YP) 2 /v

→Yp7 ≈ 286 unidades Sy= √2170.72 / 4
Sy= 23.3 unidades

 PARÁBOLA→FORMA GENERAL

Ecuaciones normales:

I. ∑y= a. ∑x2 + b.∑x + c.n

II. ∑y.x= a.∑x3 + b.∑x2 + c. ∑x

III. ∑y. x2= a. ∑x4 + b.∑x3 + c.∑x2

Años X Ventas Y YX x2 x3 Y x2 x4 YP Y-YP (Y-YP) 2
1 0 90 0 0 0 0 0 98.7 -8.7 75.59
2 1 115 115 1 1 115 1 121.5 -6.5 42.25
3 2 160 320 4 8 640 16 148 12 144
4 3 180 540 9 27 1620 81 177.8 2.2 4.84
5 4 240 960 16 64 3840 256 211.1 28.9 835.21
6 5 220 1100 25 125 5500 625 248 -28 784
∑x= 15 ∑y= 1005 ∑yx= ∑x2 = ∑x3 = ∑Y ∑ x4 ∑(Y-YP) 2= 1886
3035 55 225 x2 = =
11715 979

Reemplazando en ecuaciones:
I. 1005 = 55a + 15b + 6c (-15) (-55)
II. 3035 = 225a + 55b + 15c (6)
III. 11715= 979a + 225b + 55c (6)

IV. -15075 = -825a -225b – 90c

V. 18210= 1350a + 330b + 90c
VI. 3135 = 525a + 105b
VII. -55275 = -3625a – 825b – 330c
VIII. 70290 = 5874a + 1350b + 330c
IX. 15015 = 2249a + 525b

VI. 3135 = 525a + 105b (-5)

IX. 15015 = 2249a + 525b

X. -15675 = -2625 a – 525b

IX. 15015 = 2249 a + 525b

XI. -660 = -376 a + 0 → a= 660/376

→ a = 1.75
 Reemplazando en (VI)

3135 = 525 a + 105b → 3135 = 525 (1.75) + 105b

→3135 = 918.75 + 105b → 2216.25 = 105b

→b = 21.10

Reemplazando en (I)
1005 =55 (1.75) + 15 (21.10) + 6c
1005 = 96.25 + 316.5 + 6c

→592.25 = 6c → c = 98.70

Yp= Yp = ax2 + bx + c→ 1.75 (x)2 + 21.10 (x) + 98.70

Yp1= 1.75 (0)2 + 21.10 (0) + 98.70 = 98.7 u

Yp2= 1.75 (1)2 + 21.10 (1) + 98.70 = 121.5 u
Yp3= 1.75 (2)2 + 21.10 (2) + 98.70 = 148 u
Yp4= 1.75 (3)2 + 21.10 (3) + 98.70 = 177.8 u
Yp5= 1.75 (4)2 + 21.10 (4) + 98.70 = 211.1 u
Yp6= 1.75 (5)2 + 21.10 (5) + 98.70 = 248 u

→ Yp7 =1.75 (6)2 + 21.10 (6) + 98.70 Sy= √(Y-YP) 2 /v

→Yp7 ≈ 288 unidades Sy= √1886 / 4
Sy= 21.7 unidades
  PARÁBOLA→FORMA SIMPLIFICADA

Años X Ventas Y YX x2 x3 Y x2 x4 YP Y-YP (Y-YP) 2

1 -3 90 -270 9 -27 810 81 87.5 2.5 6.25
2 -2 115 -230 4 -8 460 16 121.8 -6.8 46.24
3 -1 160 -160 1 -1 160 1 151.8 8.2 67.24
4 1 180 180 1 1 180 1 198.9 -18.9 357.21
5 2 240 480 4 8 960 16 216 24 576
6 3 220 660 9 27 1980 81 229 -9 81
∑x= 15 ∑y= 1005 ∑yx= 660 ∑x2 = ∑x3 = ∑Y ∑ x4 ∑(Y-YP) 2= 1133.9
28 0 x2 = =
4550 196

I. 1005 = 28a + b (0) + 6c

II. 660 = a (0) + 28b + c (0)
III. 4550 = 196 a + b (0) + 28c

Reemplazando en (II)
660 = 28b → b = 23.57

(I) 1005 = 28 a + 6c (-28)

(III) 4550 = 196 a +28 c (6)
(IV) -28140 = -784 a – 168 c
(V) 27300 = 1176 a + 168 c

(VI) -840 = 392 a → a = -2.14

(I)→ 1005 = 28 (-2.14) + 6c

→1005 = -59.92 + 6c → 1064.92 = 6c
→ c = 177.5
Yp= Yp = ax2 + bx + c→ -2.14 (x)2 + 23.57 (x) + 177.5

Yp1= -2.14 (-3)2 + 23.57 (-3) + 177.5 = 87.53 u

Yp2= -2.14 (-2)2 + 23.57 (-2) + 177.5 = 121.8 u
Yp3= -2.14 (-1)2 + 23.57 (-1) + 177.5 = 151.8 u
Yp4= -2.14 (1)2 + 23.57 (1) + 177.5 = 198.9 u
Yp5= -2.14 (2)2 + 23.57 (2) + 177.5 = 216 u
Yp6= -2.14 (3)2 + 23.57 (3) + 177.5 = 229 u

→ Yp7 =-2.14 (4)2 + 23.57 (4) + 177.5 Sy= √(Y-YP) 2 /v

→Yp7 ≈ 238 unidades Sy= √1133.9 / 4
Sy= 16.8 unidades

 Coeficiente de probabilidad → Forma general

 Línea recta → (c1) → Sy = 15.6 u

 Línea exponencial → (c2) → Sy= 24.8 u
 Parábola→ (c3) → Sy= 21.7 u

→C1 = 24.8 / 15.6 = 1.58

→C2 = 24.8 / 24.8 = 1 →∑3 c = 3.72
→C3 = 24.8 / 21.7 = 1.14

Probabilidad:

P1= 1.58 / 3.72 = 0.42 P2= 1 / 3.72 = 0.26 P3= 1.14 / 3.72 = 0.30
→Yp7 = 272 (0.42) + 306 (0.26) + 288 (0.30) → Yp7≈ 280 unidades
  Coeficiente de probabilidad → Forma Simplificada

 Línea recta → (c1) → Sy = 18.9 u

 Línea exponencial → (c2) → Sy= 23.3 u
 Parábola→ (c3) → Sy= 16.8 u

C1 = 23.3 / 18.9 = 1.23

→C2 = 23.3 / 23.3 = 1 →∑3 c = 3.61
→C3 = 23.3 / 16.8 = 1.38

Probabilidad:

P1= 1.23 / 3.61 = 0.34 P2= 1 / 3.61 = 0.27 P3= 1.38 / 3.61 = 0.38

→Yp7 = 262 (0.34) + 286 (0.27) + 238 (0.38) → Yp7≈ 257 unidades