La regresión lineal usada como método de inicilización de una

suavización

7,600,000
X Y
MES DEMANDA XY X2 6,600,000
1 3,155,413 3,155,413.00 1.00
2 3,074,723 6,149,446.00 4.00 5,600,000
3 3,283,838 9,851,514.00 9.00
4 2,772,971 11,091,884.00 16.00 4,600,000
5 3,354,889 16,774,445.00 25.00 f(x) = 42529.49 4,475
x+
6 4,475,792 26,854,752.00 36.00 3,600,000

7 5,944,348 41,610,436.00 49.00 3,283,838 3,354,889

3,155,413
3,074,723
8 3,742,334 29,938,672.00 64.00 2,600,000
1 2 3 2,772,971
4 5 6
9 3,681,370 33,132,330.00 81.00
10 3,546,647 35,466,470.00 100.00
11 3,324,321 36,567,531.00 121.00
12 3,318,181 39,818,172.00 144.00
13 3,181,115 41,354,495.00 169.00 m=
14 3,022,091 42,309,274.00 196.00
15 3,408,870 51,133,050.00 225.00
16 3,501,779 56,028,464.00 256.00 b=
17 3,712,424 63,111,208.00 289.00
18 4,852,090 87,337,620.00 324.00
19 7,584,065 144,097,235.00 361.00
20 4,622,233 92,444,660.00 400.00
21 3,965,540 83,276,340.00 441.00
22 3,899,108 85,780,376.00 484.00
23 3,670,589 84,423,547.00 529.00
24 3,809,110 91,418,640.00 576.00
25 4,159,358 103,983,950.00 625.00

325 97,063,199 1,317,109,924.00 5,525.00

∑▒𝑋_𝑖∑▒𝑌_𝑖 ∑▒ 〖𝑋*𝑌_𝑖
∑▒𝑋_𝑖 _𝑖 〗 ^2
∑▒ 〖𝑋 _𝑖 〗 ^2
7,600,000
7,584,065

6,600,000

5,600,000 5,944,348

4,600,000 4,852,090
4,622,233
f(x) = 42529.49 4,475,792
x + 3329644.59
4,159,35
3,600,000 3,965,540
3,899,108 3,809,110
3,742,334
3,681,370 3,712,424 3,670,589
3,546,647 3,501,779
3,283,838 3,354,889 3,324,321
3,318,181 3,408,870
3,155,413
3,074,723 3,181,115
2,600,000
3,022,091
1 2 3 2,772,971
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

DEMANDA Linear (DEMANDA)

n=25 periodos históricos disponibles

(𝑛∑128▒ 〖𝑋 _𝑖
𝑦_𝑖 〗
−∑ 128▒ 〖 Xⅈ∑128
▒𝑦_𝑖
𝑦 ̅−𝑚𝑥 ̅
〗 )/(𝑛𝛴 〖𝑋 _𝑖 〗 ^2
− (∑128▒𝑥_𝑖 )^2 )
584,065

90
4,622,233
4,159,358
3,965,540
3,899,108 3,809,110
3,670,589

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

eriodos históricos disponibles 42,529.49 Tendencia periodo cero

3,329,644.59 Pronostico periodo cero

riodo cero

eriodo cero
Cuando los datos observados tienen una tendencia clara y contienen información que pe
Suavización exponencial doble o ajustada a la tendencia: Método de Holt

N m
12 2

MES DEMANDA Yt Dt/Yt

-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1 3,155,413
2 3,074,723
3 3,283,838
4 2,772,971
5 3,354,889
6 4,475,792
7 5,944,348
8 3,742,334
9 3,681,370
10 3,546,647
11 3,324,321
12 3,318,181
13 3,181,115
14 3,022,091
15 3,408,870
16 3,501,779
 17 3,712,424
18 4,852,090
19 7,584,065
20 4,622,233
21 3,965,540
22 3,899,108
23 3,670,589
24 3,809,110
25 4,159,358

Periodo Pronóstico
26
27
28
29
30
31
ME
MAD
MAPE
MSE
ia clara y contienen información que permite anticipar movimientos futuros ascendentes se necesita una fun
dencia: Método de Holt

alpha beta gama

α β δ
0.100 0.100 0.100
St Gt ct Ft et
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!
#DIV/0!

ct sin Norm

0.8775
0.8352
0.9045
0.8328
0.9316
1.2167
1.7358
1.0627
0.9654
 0.9293
0.8637
0.8698
12.0251
ntes se necesita una función de tendencia lineal del pronóstico.

|et| %et et2 ct normalizado

-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0000
Normalización de datos iniciales de ct
(𝐶_𝑡/(𝛴𝐶_𝑡 ))∗𝑛
ct =

ct normalizados

0.8757
0.8334 La normalización de los datos para ct se hace cuando la
0.9026 sumatoria inicial no es igual a N (en este caso 5)
0.8310
0.9296
1.2141
1.7322
1.0605
0.9633
 0.9274
0.8619
0.8680
12.0000
8,200,000.00

7,700,000.00

7,200,000.00

6,700,000.00

6,200,000.00

5,700,000.00

5,200,000.00

4,700,000.00

4,200,000.00 f(x) = 42529.49 x + 3329644.59

3,700,000.00

3,200,000.00

2,700,000.00

2,200,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25

Ft Linear (Ft) DEMANDA Linear (DEMANDA)

ct ct norm
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!
- #DIV/0!

-### #DIV/0!
 Se pueden evidenciar
dos cliclos completos
compuestos por 12
periodos cada uno

7 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31

Linear (DEMANDA)
Periodo Pronóstico
26 3692646.63748
27 4039248.97462
28 3758533.43471
29 4240841.35683
30 5590119.65155
31 8055926.46662
Cuando los datos observados tienen una tendencia clara y contienen información que pe
Suavización exponencial doble o ajustada a la tendencia: Método de Holt

N m alpha
12 2 α
0.029
MES ElDEMANDA
valor de ct se determina
Yt de Dt/Yt St
acuerdo a cada conjunto de valores
-11 que tengan el mismo
-10 comportamiento dentro de cada
-9 ciclo.
En este caso tenemos dos ciclos
-8 completos con 12 datos cada uno,
-7 por tanto 12 conjuntos de datos
-6 para ct
Claro que para el primer valor de ct
-5 debimos hacer una normalización,
-4 pasando de 0.8775 a valor
-3 normalizado de 0.8757
-2
-1
0 3,329,644.59
1 3,155,413 3,372,174.08 0.94 3,378,862.06
2 3,074,723 3,414,703.57 0.90 3,435,633.90
3 3,283,838 3,457,233.06 0.95 3,496,621.61
4 2,772,971 3,499,762.55 0.79 3,551,218.59
5 3,354,889 3,542,292.04 0.95 3,605,903.77
6 4,475,792 3,584,821.53 1.25 3,661,335.31
7 5,944,348 3,627,351.02 1.64 3,708,517.56
8 3,742,334 3,669,880.51 1.02 3,749,134.16
9 3,681,370 3,712,410.00 0.99 3,790,667.88
10 3,546,647 3,754,939.49 0.94 3,831,973.30
11 3,324,321 3,797,468.98 0.88 3,872,802.40
12 3,318,181 3,839,998.47 0.86 3,910,999.29
13 3,181,115 3,882,527.96 0.82 3,940,037.76
14 3,022,091 3,925,057.45 0.77 3,959,150.17
15 3,408,870 3,967,586.94 0.86 3,972,428.60
16 3,501,779 4,010,116.43 0.87 3,992,304.32
17 3,712,424 4,052,645.92 0.92 4,011,638.54
18 4,852,090 4,095,175.41 1.18 4,029,969.92
19 7,584,065 4,137,704.90 1.83 4,057,848.54
20 4,622,233 4,180,234.39 1.11 4,093,618.75
21 3,965,540 4,222,763.88 0.94 4,129,014.03
22 3,899,108 4,265,293.37 0.91 4,165,565.42
23 3,670,589 4,307,822.86 0.85 4,203,749.66
24 3,809,110 4,350,352.35 0.88 4,246,166.73
25 4,159,358 4,392,881.84 0.95 4,301,927.88
26 4435411.33
27 4477940.82
28 4520470.31
29
30
31

ME -18579.68
MAD 151059.27
MAPE 3.87%
MSE 32881297801.58
en información que permite anticipar movimientos futuros ascendentes se necesita una función de tendencia
e Holt

beta gama
β δ
1.00 0.00
Gt ct Ft et |et|
=0.8757
0.8334
0.9026
0.8310
0.9296
1.2141
1.7322
1.0605
0.9633
0.9274
0.8619
42,529.49 0.8680
49,217.4663 0.8757 2,953,000.08 - 202,412.92 202,412.92
56,771.84 0.8334 2,845,971.26 - 228,751.74 228,751.74
60,987.71 0.9026 3,120,573.13 - 163,264.87 163,264.87
54,596.99 0.8310 2,908,451.64 135,480.64 135,480.64
54,685.18 0.9296 3,293,002.51 - 61,886.49 61,886.49
55,431.54 1.2141 4,352,480.45 - 123,311.55 123,311.55
47,182.25 1.7322 6,283,324.20 338,976.20 338,976.20
40,616.60 1.0605 3,891,971.11 149,637.11 149,637.11
41,533.73 0.9633 3,576,328.91 - 105,041.09 105,041.09
41,305.42 0.9274 3,482,312.17 - 64,334.83 64,334.83
40,829.10 0.8619 3,273,167.32 - 51,153.68 51,153.68
38,196.89 0.8680 3,333,232.42 15,051.42 15,051.42
29,038.47 0.8757 3,399,915.04 218,800.04 218,800.04
19,112.41 0.8334 3,271,323.70 249,232.70 249,232.70
13,278.43 0.9026 3,581,229.55 172,359.55 172,359.55
19,875.72 0.8310 3,332,577.43 - 169,201.57 169,201.57
19,334.21 0.9296 3,767,440.13 55,016.13 55,016.13
18,331.38 1.2141 4,972,122.25 120,032.25 120,032.25
27,878.62 1.7322 7,167,362.96 - 416,702.04 416,702.04
35,770.21 1.0605 4,433,210.14 - 189,022.86 189,022.86
35,395.28 0.9633 4,067,975.40 102,435.40 102,435.40
36,551.39 0.9274 3,955,611.81 56,503.81 56,503.81
38,184.24 0.8619 3,713,058.64 42,469.64 42,469.64
42,417.07 0.8680 3,776,234.70 - 32,875.30 32,875.30
55,761.15 0.8757 3,846,830.01 - 312,527.99 312,527.99
3,696,676.13
4,041,885.97
3,756,703.23
4,241,877.75
5,591,764.06
8,051,401.71

Normalización de datos iniciales de ct

(𝐶_𝑡/(𝛴𝐶_𝑡 ))∗𝑛
ct =

ct sin Norm ct normalizados

0.8775 0.8757
0.8352 0.8334
0.9045 0.9026
0.8328 0.8310
0.9316 0.9296
1.2167 1.2141
1.7358 1.7322
1.0627 1.0605
0.9654 0.9633
 0.9293 0.9274
0.8637 0.8619
0.8698 0.8680
12.0251 12.0000
sita una función de tendencia lineal del pronóstico.

%et et2 ct normalizado

0.87753
8,200,000.00
0.83519
7,700,000.00
0.90451
7,200,000.00
0.83278 6,700,000.00
0.93157 6,200,000.00

1.21669 5,700,000.00

1.73584 5,200,000.00

1.06274 4,700,000.00

0.96536 4,200,000.00

0.92934 3,700,000.00

3,200,000.00
0.86374
2,700,000.00
0.86985
2,200,000.00
6.41% 40,970,989,081.21 12.0251 1 2 3 4

7.44% 52,327,356,493.72
4.97% 26,655,417,852.79
4.89% 18,355,003,363.87
1.84% 3,829,937,448.76
2.76% 15,205,738,587.68
5.70% 114,904,864,034.69
4.00% 22,391,265,798.21
2.85% 11,033,630,845.87
1.81% 4,138,970,660.18
1.54% 2,616,699,004.66
0.45% 226,545,229.21
6.88% 47,873,459,445.09
8.25% 62,116,938,340.66
5.06% 29,707,814,402.66
4.83% 28,629,169,718.09
 1.48% 3,026,774,853.26
2.47% 14,407,742,113.52
5.49% 173,640,593,320.37
4.09% 35,729,641,099.95
2.58% 10,493,010,304.45
1.45% 3,192,680,792.72
1.16% 1,803,670,282.32
0.86% 1,080,785,025.75
7.51% 97,673,746,939.86

zación de datos iniciales de ct

(𝐶_𝑡/(𝛴𝐶_𝑡 ))∗𝑛

La normalización de los datos para ct se hace cuando la

sumatoria inicial no es igual a N (en este caso 5)
 600.42

8,200,000.00

7,700,000.00

7,200,000.00

6,700,000.00

6,200,000.00

5,700,000.00

5,200,000.00

4,700,000.00

4,200,000.00

3,700,000.00

3,200,000.00

2,700,000.00

2,200,000.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Ft DEMANDA Linear (DEMANDA)

 Se pueden evidenciar
dos cliclos completos
compuestos por 12
periodos cada uno

22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31