PROMEDIO SIMPLE

ERROR ERROR ERROR ERROR

PERIODO LICENCIAS PRONÓSTICO PORCENTUAL
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO PORCENTUAL
ABSOLUTO
1 1534
2 1543.4
3 1559.8 1538.7 21.1 21.1 1.35% 1.35%
4 1576.2 1545.7333333 30.4666667 30.4666667 1.93% 1.93%
5 1578.6 1553.35 25.25 25.25 1.60% 1.60%
6 1573.9 1558.4 15.5 15.5 0.98% 0.98%
7 1625.5 1560.9833333 64.5166667 64.5166667 3.97% 3.97%
8 1627.8 1570.2 57.6 57.6 3.54% 3.54%
9 1644.3 1577.4 66.9 66.9 4.07% 4.07%
10 1649 1584.8333333 64.1666667 64.1666667 3.89% 3.89%
11 1646.6 1591.25 55.35 55.35 3.36% 3.36%
12 1665.4 1596.2818182 69.1181818 69.1181818 4.15% 4.15%
13 1602.0416667

MAD 46.99681818182
MPE 2.88%
MAPE 2.88%
 PROMEDIO MOVIL
ERROR ERROR
PERIODO LICENCIAS PRONÓSTICO
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO

1 1534
2 1543.4
3 1559.8
4 1576.2 1545.73 30.47 30.47
5 1578.6 1559.80 18.80 18.80
6 1573.9 1571.53 2.37 2.37
7 1625.5 1576.23 49.27 49.27
8 1627.8 1592.67 35.13 35.13
9 1644.3 1609.07 35.23 35.23
10 1649 1632.53 16.47 16.47
11 1646.6 1640.37 6.23 6.23
12 1665.4 1646.63 18.77 18.77
13 1653.67

MAD
MPE
MAPE
MOVIL
ERROR ERROR
PORCENTUAL PERIODO LICENCIAS MT
PORCENTUAL
ABSOLUTO
1 1534
2 1543.4
3 1559.8 1545.73
2% 2% 4 1576.2 1559.80
1% 1% 5 1578.6 1571.53
0% 0% 6 1573.9 1576.23
3% 3% 7 1625.5 1592.67
2% 2% 8 1627.8 1609.07
2% 2% 9 1644.3 1632.53
1% 1% 10 1649 1640.37
0% 0% 11 1646.6 1646.63
1% 1% 12 1665.4 1653.67
13

23.63703703704
1.46%
1.46%
 PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE
PROMEDIO ERROR ERROR ERROR
MOVIL DOBLE (M VALOR A VALOR B PRONÓSTICO
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO PORCENTUAL
´´T)

1559.02 1584.04 12.51

1569.19 1583.28 7.04 1596.56 -22.66 22.66 -1%
1580.14 1605.19 12.52 1590.32 35.18 35.18 2%
1592.66 1625.48 16.41 1617.71 10.09 10.09 1%
1611.42 1653.64 21.11 1641.89 2.41 2.41 0%
1627.32 1653.41 13.04 1674.76 -25.76 25.76 -2%
1639.84 1653.42 6.79 1666.46 -19.86 19.86 -1%
1646.89 1660.44 6.78 1660.21 5.19 5.19 0%
1667.22

MAD 17.3047619
MPE -0.14%
MAPE 1.06%
 ERROR
PORCENTUAL
ABSOLUTO

1%
2%
1%
0%
2%
1%
0%
 SUAVIZAMIENTO SIMPLE

FACTOR
EXPONENCIAL 0.9

ERROR ERROR ERROR

PERIODO LICENCIAS PRONÓSTICO
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO PORCENTUAL

1 1534 1534
2 1543.4 1534 9.40 9.40 0.61%
3 1559.8 1542.46 17.34 17.34 1.11%
4 1576.2 1558.07 18.13 18.13 1.15%
5 1578.6 1574.39 4.21 4.21 0.27%
6 1573.9 1578.18 -4.28 4.28 -0.27%
7 1625.5 1574.33 51.17 51.17 3.15%
8 1627.8 1620.38 7.42 7.42 0.46%
9 1644.3 1627.06 17.24 17.24 1.05%
10 1649 1642.58 6.42 6.42 0.39%
11 1646.6 1648.36 -1.76 1.76 -0.11%
12 1665.4 1646.78 18.62 18.62 1.12%
13 1663.5375758

MAD 14.18
MPE 0.81%
MAPE 0.88%
 SUAVIZAMIENTO D
FACTOR
EXPONENCIAL A B

0.5 0.8

ERROR
PORCENTUAL PERIODO LICENCIAS CONSTANTE PENDIENTE
ABSOLUTO

1 1534 1534 0
0.61% 2 1543.4 1538.70 3.76
1.11% 3 1559.8 1551.13 10.70
1.15% 4 1576.2 1569.01 16.45
0.27% 5 1578.6 1582.03 13.70
0.27% 6 1573.9 1584.82 4.97
3.15% 7 1625.5 1607.64 19.26
0.46% 8 1627.8 1627.35 19.62
1.05% 9 1644.3 1645.63 18.55
0.39% 10 1649 1656.59 12.48
0.11% 11 1646.6 1657.83 3.49
1.12% 12 1665.4 1663.36 5.12
13
SUAVIZAMIENTO DE HOLT

ERROR
ERROR ERROR ERROR
PRONÓSTICO PORCENTUAL
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO PORCENTUAL
ABSOLUTO

1534.00 9.40 9.40 0.61% 0.61%

1542.46 17.34 17.34 1.11% 1.11%
1561.83 14.37 14.37 0.91% 0.91%
1585.46 -6.86 6.86 -0.43% 0.43%
1595.73 -21.83 21.83 -1.39% 1.39%
1589.79 35.71 35.71 2.20% 2.20%
1626.90 0.90 0.90 0.06% 0.06%
1646.97 -2.67 2.67 -0.16% 0.16%
1664.18 -15.18 15.18 -0.92% 0.92%
1669.07 -22.47 22.47 -1.36% 1.36%
1661.32 4.08 4.08 0.24% 0.24%
1668.48204352387

MAD 13.71
MPE 0.08%
MAPE 0.85%
 SUAVIZAMIENTO WINTER
FACTOR
EXPONENCIAL A B C

0.25 0.05 0.95

PERIODO LICENCIAS CONSTANTE PENDIENTE ESTACIONALIDAD PRONÓSTICO

1 1534 1521.6 12.372 1.000

2 1543.4 1536.33 12.49 1.004 1533.97
3 1559.8 1549.87 12.54 1.006 1555.59
4 1576.2 1563.39 12.59 1.008 1572.26
5 1578.6 1573.46 12.47 1.004 1588.75
6 1573.9 1581.55 12.25 0.996 1591.49
7 1625.5 1603.52 12.73 1.013 1586.75
8 1627.8 1614.00 12.62 1.009 1636.94
9 1644.3 1627.47 12.66 1.010 1640.87
10 1649 1638.16 12.56 1.007 1656.96
11 1646.6 1646.91 12.37 1.000 1661.95
12 1665.4 1660.75 12.45 1.003 1659.55
13 1677.66
WINTER

ERROR
ERROR ERROR ERROR
PORCENTUAL
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO PORCENTUAL
ABSOLUTO

9.43 9.43 0.61% 0.61%

4.21 4.21 0.27% 0.27%
3.94 3.94 0.25% 0.25%
-10.15 10.15 -0.64% 0.64%
-17.59 17.59 -1.12% 1.12%
38.75 38.75 2.38% 2.38%
-9.14 9.14 -0.56% 0.56%
3.43 3.43 0.21% 0.21%
-7.96 7.96 -0.48% 0.48%
-15.35 15.35 -0.93% 0.93%
5.85 5.85 0.35% 0.35%

MAD 11.44
MPE 0.03%
MAPE 0.71%
 REGRESION SIMPLE

ERROR ERROR ERROR

PERIODO LICENCIAS INFLACION PRONÓSTICO
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO PORCENTUAL

1 1534 3.73% 1549.87 -15.87 15.87 -1.03%

2 1543.4 3.88% 1554.91 -11.51 11.51 -0.75%
3 1559.8 4.03% 1559.96 -0.16 0.16 -0.01%
4 1576.2 4.27% 1568.03 8.17 8.17 0.52%
5 1578.6 4.48% 1575.10 3.50 3.50 0.22%
6 1573.9 4.86% 1587.88 -13.98 13.98 -0.89%
7 1625.5 5.25% 1601.00 24.50 24.50 1.51%
8 1627.8 5.67% 1615.13 12.67 12.67 0.78%
9 1644.3 6.05% 1627.92 16.38 16.38 1.00%
10 1649 6.53% 1644.07 4.93 4.93 0.30%
11 1646.6 7.00% 1659.88 -13.28 13.28 -0.81%
12 1665.4 7.62% 1680.74 -15.34 15.34 -0.92%
13 1685.86 7.77% 1685.86

MAD 11.69
MPE -0.01%
MAPE 0.73%

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.95285746
Coeficiente d 0.90793735
R^2 ajustado 0.89873108
Error típico 14.5724473
Observacione 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 20942.927 20942.9269515 98.6216782 1.69388E-06
Residuos 10 2123.56222 212.35622152
Total 11 23066.4892

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción 1424.38169 18.3776562 77.5061667147 3.12196E-15 1383.43372 1465.329655407
INFLACION 3364.2414 338.766889 9.93084478995 1.69388E-06 2609.42173 4119.0610635355
Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico LICENCIAS
Residuos
1 1549.86789 -15.8678897
2 1554.91425 -11.5142518
3 1559.96061 -0.16061387
4 1568.03479 8.16520678
5 1575.0997 3.50029985
6 1587.88382 -13.9838175
7 1601.00436 24.4956411
8 1615.13417 12.6658272
9 1627.91829 16.3817099
10 1644.06665 4.93335123
11 1659.87858 -13.2785833
12 1680.73688 -15.33688
 ERROR
PORCENTUAL
ABSOLUTO

1.03%
0.75%
0.01%
0.52%
0.22%
0.89%
1.51%
0.78%
1.00%
0.30%
0.81%
0.92%

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%

1383.4337158117 1465.32966
2609.4217285978 4119.06106
 REGRESION MULTIPLE
TASA DE
ERROR ERROR
PERIODO LICENCIAS INFLACION CRECIMIENTO PRONÓSTICO
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO
SECTORIAL

1 1534 3.73% 2.24 1551.94 -17.94 17.94

2 1543.4 3.88% 2.24 1556.26 -12.86 12.86
3 1559.8 4.03% 2.73 1550.36 9.44 9.44
4 1576.2 4.27% 2.24 1567.48 8.72 8.72
5 1578.6 4.48% 2.32 1571.85 6.75 6.75
6 1573.9 4.86% 2.12 1586.95 -13.05 13.05
7 1625.5 5.25% 1.83 1604.21 21.29 21.29
8 1627.8 5.67% 1.55 1622.13 5.67 5.67
9 1644.3 6.05% 1.55 1633.06 11.24 11.24
10 1649 6.53% 1.47 1648.54 0.46 0.46
11 1646.6 7.00% 1.43 1662.89 -16.29 16.29
12 1665.4 7.62% 2 1668.85 -3.45 3.45
13 1672.40 7.77% 2.04 1672.40

MAD 10.60
MPE -0.01%
MAPE 0.67%

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.96115128
Coeficiente d 0.92381178
R^2 ajustado 0.90688106
Error típico 13.9737643
Observacione 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 2 21309.0944 10654.5471785 54.5642470751 9.30026E-06
Residuos 9 1757.39481 195.266089969
Total 11 23066.4892

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%

Intercepción 1491.32762 51.9667664 28.6977182995 3.6892044E-10 1373.77063 1608.88461
INFLACION 2876.65846 481.980403 5.96841374324 0.00021051123 1786.34304 3966.97389
TASA DE CRE -20.8419026 15.2198698 -1.3693877118 0.20407415032 -55.27164 13.5878348
Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico LICENCIAS
Residuos
1 1551.94112 -17.9411206
2 1556.25611 -12.8561083
3 1550.35856 9.44143627
4 1567.47508 8.72492366
5 1571.84871 6.7512931
6 1586.94839 -13.0483896
7 1604.21151 21.2884906
8 1622.12921 5.67079236
9 1633.06051 11.2394902
10 1648.53582 0.46417736
11 1662.88979 -16.2897935
12 1668.84519 -3.44519151
 ERROR
ERROR
PORCENTUAL
PORCENTUAL
ABSOLUTO

-1.17% 1.17%
-0.83% 0.83%
0.61% 0.61%
0.55% 0.55%
0.43% 0.43%
-0.83% 0.83%
1.31% 1.31%
0.35% 0.35%
0.68% 0.68%
0.03% 0.03%
-0.99% 0.99%
-0.21% 0.21%

Inferior 95,0% Superior 95,0%

1373.77062907 1608.88461455
1786.34304191 3966.97388587
-55.271640027 13.5878347716
 REGRESION MULTIPLE
TASA DE
PRONÓSTIC
PERIODO LICENCIAS INFLACION CRECIMIENTO T1 T2 T3
O
SECTORIAL

1 1534 3.73% 2.24 1 0 0 1554.95

2 1543.4 3.88% 2.24 0 1 0 1551.90
3 1559.8 4.03% 2.73 0 0 1 1550.80
4 1576.2 4.27% 2.24 1 0 0 1570.30
5 1578.6 4.48% 2.32 0 1 0 1567.14
6 1573.9 4.86% 2.12 0 0 1 1588.23
7 1625.5 5.25% 1.83 1 0 0 1607.45
8 1627.8 5.67% 1.55 0 1 0 1618.42
9 1644.3 6.05% 1.55 0 0 1 1634.97
10 1649 6.53% 1.47 1 0 0 1651.99
11 1646.6 7.00% 1.43 0 1 0 1658.94
12 1665.4 7.62% 2 0 0 1 1669.39
13 1674.38 7.77% 2.04 1 0 0 1674.38

Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.96375997
Coeficiente d 0.92883328
R^2 ajustado 0.74530944
Error típico 15.3137027
Observacione 12

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados F Valor crítico de F
Regresión 5 21424.9227 4284.9845455603 22.8401446 0.00077084
Residuos 7 1641.56644 234.50949126649
Total 12 23066.4892

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%
Intercepción 1498.16923 75.4288451 19.862020067228 2.05042E-07 1319.80836 1676.53011 1319.80836
INFLACION 2842.20166 640.52259 4.4373168232595 0.00301746 1327.60641 4356.79691 1327.60641
TASA DE CRE -22.6759088 20.2335215 -1.120709943744 0.29938238 -70.5205845 25.1687669 -70.5205845
T1 1.5635357 13.0319356 0.1199772427866 0.90787209 -29.2520953 32.3791667 -29.2520953
T2 -5.75389902 12.6365208 -0.45533886315 0.66265277 -35.6345226 24.1267246 -35.6345226
T3 0 0 65535 #NUM! 0 0 0

Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico LICENCIAS
Residuos
1 1554.95286 -20.9528567
2 1551.89872 -8.49872447
3 1550.80473 8.99526931
4 1570.30075 5.89925432
5 1567.13786 11.4621382
6 1588.22731 -14.3273088
7 1607.45144 18.0485554
8 1618.42051 9.3794887
9 1634.97478 9.32522336
10 1651.99495 -2.99495303
11 1658.9429 -12.3429025
12 1669.39318 -3.99318382
E
ERROR
ERROR ERROR ERROR
PORCENTUAL
RESIDUAL ABSOLUTO PORCENTUAL
ABSOLUTO

-20.95 20.95 -1.37% 1.37%

-8.50 8.50 -0.55% 0.55%
9.00 9.00 0.58% 0.58%
5.90 5.90 0.37% 0.37%
11.46 11.46 0.73% 0.73%
-14.33 14.33 -0.91% 0.91%
18.05 18.05 1.11% 1.11%
9.38 9.38 0.58% 0.58%
9.33 9.33 0.57% 0.57%
-2.99 2.99 -0.18% 0.18%
-12.34 12.34 -0.75% 0.75%
-3.99 3.99 -0.24% 0.24%

MAD 10.52
MPE -0.01%
MAPE 0.66%

Superior 95,0%
1676.53011
4356.79691
25.1687669
32.3791667
24.1267246
0
 TABLA DE ANALISIS DE MODELOS

MEDICION DEL ERROR DE PRONOSTICO PRONOSTICO

TECNICA USADA
MAD MPE MAPE COEF CORREL. UNID.

PROMEDIO SIMPLE 46.99 2.88% 2.88% 1602.04

PROMEDIO MOVIL 23.63 1.46% 1.46% 1653.67

PROMEDIO MOVIL DOBLE 17.3 -0.14% 1.06% 1667.22

SUAVIZAMIENTO SIMPLE 14.18 0.81% 0.88% 1663.53

SUAVIZAMIENTO HOLT 13.71 0.08% 0.85% 1668.48

SUAVIZAMIENTO WINTER 11.44 0.03% 0.71% 1677.66

REGRESION SIMPLE 11.69 -0.01% 0.73% 0.95285746354 1685.86

REGRESION MULTIPLE 10.6 -0.01% 0.67% 0.9611512771 1672.7

SERIES DE TIEMPO 10.52 -0.01% 0.66% 0.9637599687 1674.38

 Como se evidencia en la tabla, el método más adecuado para utilizar en el pronóstico de ventas de este
ejercicio es el METODO DE SERIES DE TIEMPO, ya que es el que más se acerca a 0, por lo cual genera mayor
confiabilidad. Como conclusión, es importante tener en cuenta variables internas y externas para el analisis
de pronosticos en las empresas más grandes. El uso de los metodos de promedio y suavizamiento son más
convenientes para empresas pequeñas o lanzamientos de nuevos productos en los que no se tiene un
historial.