ESTUDIO HIDROLOGICO

1.- CONSIDERACIONES

El estudio Hidrológico busca cuantificar el Caudal Máximo de Diseño para

un vida esperada de la estructura hidráulica de años y un riego de falla de %.

2.- AJUSTE PROBABILISTICO DE LA SERIE DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS

CAUDALES MAXIMOS Y PROBABILIDAD
ESTACION : HUATIAPA

N° Orden Año   Precipitación Orden Probabilidad Tiempo

      Maxima Decendente (m/n+1)*100 Retorno
      mm mm Weibull años
1 19471948 148.87 2000.00 3.33 30.00
2 19481949 524.28 1431.11 6.67 15.00
3 19491950 665.61 1300.00 10.00 10.00
4 19501951 556.77 1200.00 13.33 7.50
5 19511952 484.56 950.00 16.67 6.00
6 19521953 680.35 890.00 20.00 5.00
7 19531954 623.00 800.42 23.33 4.29
8 19541955 1431.11 750.19 26.67 3.75
9 19551956 94.78 680.35 30.00 3.33
10 19561957 138.25 665.61 33.33 3.00
11 19571958 235.59 623.00 36.67 2.73
12 19581959 238.91 600.00 40.00 2.50
13 19591960 224.02 556.77 43.33 2.31
14 19601961 301.10 530.00 46.67 2.14
15 19611962 399.87 524.28 50.00 2.00
16 19701971 340.72 484.56 53.33 1.88
17 19711972 800.42 399.87 56.67 1.76
18 19721973 750.19 340.72 60.00 1.67
19 19731974 950.00 301.10 63.33 1.58
20 19741975 890.00 300.00 66.67 1.50
21 19761977 1200.00 238.91 70.00 1.43
22 19771978 2000.00 235.59 73.33 1.36
23 19781979 150.70 224.02 76.67 1.30
24 19791980 89.00 150.70 80.00 1.25
25 19801981 530.00 148.87 83.33 1.20
26 19811982 300.00 138.25 86.67 1.15
27 19821983 40.00 94.78 90.00 1.11
28 19831984 1300.00 89.00 93.33 1.07
29 19851986 600.00 40.00 96.67 1.03
FRECUENCIA DE CAUDALES MÁXIMOS M3/S , ESTACION: HUATIAPA (29 AÑOS)
FRECUENCIA DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS,ESTACION:HUATIAPA

TYPE 1 EXTREMAL DISTRIBUCION

METHOD OF MOMENTS

ALPHA .27869E-02 M1 .57545E+03

BETA .36837E+03 M2 .21177E+06
SKEW .12189E+01

NOTE - FOR GOOD USE OF THIS DISTRIBUTION SKEW SKEW SHOULD BE AROUND
1.13

T,YEARS 2 5 10 20 50
100

X .50540E+03 .97587E+03 .12874E+04 .15862E+04 .19729E+04 .

22627E+04
T
S .78878E+02 .14361E+03 .19849E+03 .25363E+03 .32657E+03 .
38184E+03
T

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PROCEDURE

TRIAL A F(A)

1 .31048E-02 .61116E+03
2 .31750E-02 .95360E+02
3 .31778E-02 .34897E+01
4 .31778E-02 .51360E-02
5 .31778E-02 .11167E-07

ALPHA .31778E-02 M1 .56074E+03

BETA .37913E+03 M2 .16288E+06

T,YEARS 2 5 10 20 50
100

X .49446E+03 .85113E+03 .10873E+04 .13138E+04 .16070E+04 .

18267E+04
T
S .68613E+02 .10530E+03 .13508E+03 .16526E+03 .20552E+03 .
23619E+03
T
 Gumbel Extremal Type I
2000000

1500000

Actual Data
1000000
Value
500000

Distribution
0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

-500000
Weibull Probability
 FRECUENCIA DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS,ESTACION:HUATIAPA

PEARSON TYPE 3 DISTRIBUTION

METHOD OF MOMENTS

ALPHA .40342E+03 M1 .57545E+03

BETA .13012E+01 M2 .21177E+06
GAMMA .50523E+02 SKEW .17533E+01

T,YEARS 2 5 10 20 50
100

X .45213E+03 .87104E+03 .11750E+04 .14764E+04 .18749E+04 .

21782E+04
T
S .75407E+02 .12856E+03 .18007E+03 .28425E+03 .47840E+03 .
65395E+03
T

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PROCEDURE

TRIAL G F(G)

1 .39432E+02 -.27588E+00
2 .39362E+02 -.66055E-01
3 .39354E+02 -.65422E-02
4 .39354E+02 -.82151E-04
5 .39354E+02 -.13606E-07

ALPHA .51869E+03 M1 .57545E+03

BETA .10336E+01 M2 .27807E+06
GAMMA .39354E+02 SKEW .19673E+01

T,YEARS 2 5 10 20 50
100

X .42048E+03 .89455E+03 .12520E+04 .16130E+04 .20977E+04 .

24706E+04
T
S .69962E+02 .15635E+03 .22245E+03 .28957E+03 .38005E+03 .
44984E+03
T
 Pearson Type III
2000000

1500000

Actual Data
Value 1000000

500000
Distribution

0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Weibull Probability
 FRECUENCIA DE CAUDALES MAXIMOS,ESTACION:HUATIAPA

THREE PARAMETER LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION

METHOD OF MOMENTS

MEAN OF X .57545E+03
VARIANCE OF X .21177E+06
SKEW OF X .12847E+01
A -.55815E+03

T,YEARS 2 5 10 20 50
100

X .49220E+03 .90096E+03 .11745E+04 .14387E+04 .17845E+04 .

20477E+04
T
S .99277E+02 .12982E+03 .17273E+03 .26013E+03 .43484E+03 .
60360E+03
T

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD PROCEDURE

TRIAL A F(A)

1 .26431E+02 -.24519E+00
2 .17797E+02 -.11102E+00
3 .52396E+01 -.48979E-01
4 -.11462E+02 -.20821E-01
5 -.30895E+02 -.83591E-02
6 -.49110E+02 -.30457E-02
7 -.60644E+02 -.91520E-03
8 -.64037E+02 -.17427E-03
9 -.64267E+02 -.10448E-04
10 -.64268E+02 -.43953E-07
11 -.64268E+02 -.78326E-12

A -.64268E+02
MEAN OF LN(X-A) .62106E+01
VARIANCE OF LN(X-A) .55778E+00
SKEW OF LN(X-A) -.76128E-01

FOR GOOD USE OF THIS DISTRIBUTION SKEW OF LN(X-A) SHOULD BE CLOSE TO

ZERO

T,YEARS 2 5 10 20 50
100

X .43375E+03 .86945E+03 .12327E+04 .16370E+04 .22446E+04 .

27659E+04
T
S .72367E+02 .15078E+03 .24940E+03 .38677E+03 .63328E+03 .
87395E+03
T
 3 Parameter Log Normal
2000000

1500000

Actual Data
1000000
Value
500000

Distribution
0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

-500000
Weibull Probability
 Distribution Analysis: 2 Parameter Log Normal
------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
First Moment (mean) = 575450.
Second Moment = 2.118e11
Skew = 1.219e+00
---------------------------------------------------------
Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard
Number Probability Value Value Deviation
---------------------------------------------------------
1 0.0333 40000.0000 123740.3000 147651.7000
2 0.0667 89000.0000 156379.3000 135583.9000
3 0.1000 94775.0000 182496.5000 126150.1000
4 0.1333 138245.0000 205798.3000 117942.7000
5 0.1667 148868.0000 227641.3000 110469.0000
6 0.2000 150700.0000 248713.0000 103505.1000
7 0.2333 224017.0000 269432.3000 96944.2900
8 0.2667 235590.0000 290090.5000 90747.4500
9 0.3000 238908.0000 310912.5000 84926.2000
10 0.3333 300000.0000 332088.7000 79539.6300
11 0.3667 301099.0000 353792.9000 74698.3300
12 0.4000 340715.0000 376195.2000 70571.5900
13 0.4333 399871.0000 399470.5000 67392.4500
14 0.4667 484563.0000 423807.7000 65451.7700
15 0.5000 524278.0000 449422.3000 65071.7500
16 0.5333 530000.0000 476580.4000 66559.1300
17 0.5667 556770.0000 505615.4000 70158.2700
18 0.6000 600000.0000 536898.1000 76021.9700
19 0.6333 622998.0000 570894.5000 84234.5200
20 0.6667 665610.0000 608206.4000 94873.6600
21 0.7000 680352.0000 649631.1000 108082.6000
22 0.7333 750185.0000 696260.0000 124141.2000
23 0.7667 800420.0000 749644.3000 143547.1000
24 0.8000 890000.0000 812094.4000 167141.6000
25 0.8333 950000.0000 887266.2000 196349.1000
26 0.86671200000.0000 981438.8000 233702.5000
27 0.90001300000.00001106752.0000 284181.8000
28 0.93331431108.00001291593.0000 359521.1000
29 0.96672000000.00001632277.0000 499666.5000
---------------------------------------------------------
----------------- Predictions --------------------------
Exceedence Return Calculated Standard
Probability Period Value Deviation
---------------------------------------------------------
0.9950 200.0 2750097.0000 962957.7000
0.9900 100.0 2307674.0000 779299.2000
0.9800 50.0 1905166.0000 612481.4000
0.9600 25.0 1539475.0000 461389.5000
0.9000 10.0 1106752.0000 284181.8000
0.8000 5.0 812094.4000 167141.6000
0.6670 3.0 608598.7000 94992.6900
0.5000 2.0 449422.3000 65071.7500
---------------------------------------------------------
 2 Parameter Log Normal
2000000

1500000

Actual Data
Value 1000000

500000
Distribution

0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Weibull Probability
 Distribution Analysis: Log Pearson Type III
------------------Summary of Data -----------------------
First Moment (mean) = 575450.
Second Moment = 2.118e11
Skew = 1.219e+00
---------------------------------------------------------
Point Weibull Actual Predicted Standard
Number Probability Value Value Deviation
---------------------------------------------------------
1 0.0333 40000.0000 54896.4600 29133.4500
2 0.0667 89000.0000 85827.1900 33720.9800
3 0.1000 94775.0000 113425.1000 37166.1600
4 0.1333 138245.0000 139695.7000 40439.0100
5 0.1667 148868.0000 165445.9000 43841.9800
6 0.2000 150700.0000 191118.6000 47486.5600
7 0.2333 224017.0000 217006.4000 51408.1100
8 0.2667 235590.0000 243330.5000 55607.8000
9 0.3000 238908.0000 270276.4000 60071.3200
10 0.3333 300000.0000 298013.9000 64778.1400
11 0.3667 301099.0000 326708.6000 69706.0700
12 0.4000 340715.0000 356531.0000 74833.7100
13 0.4333 399871.0000 387663.8000 80141.5700
14 0.4667 484563.0000 420309.0000 85612.8700
15 0.5000 524278.0000 454702.1000 91235.2800
16 0.5333 530000.0000 491139.5000 97004.8000
17 0.5667 556770.0000 529996.8000 102927.8000
18 0.6000 600000.0000 571680.9000 109014.6000
19 0.6333 622998.0000 616698.9000 115293.7000
20 0.6667 665610.0000 665697.3000 121824.6000
21 0.7000 680352.0000 719520.0000 128721.7000
22 0.7333 750185.0000 779301.2000 136199.9000
23 0.7667 800420.0000 846618.2000 144663.4000
24 0.8000 890000.0000 923762.9000 154889.5000
25 0.8333 950000.00001014256.0000 168424.3000
26 0.86671200000.00001123935.0000 188501.4000
27 0.90001300000.00001263597.0000 222422.3000
28 0.93331431108.00001457061.0000 289155.2000
29 0.96672000000.00001778210.0000 457534.6000
---------------------------------------------------------
----------------- Predictions --------------------------
Exceedence Return Calculated Standard
Probability Period Value Deviation
---------------------------------------------------------
0.9950 200.0 2589549.00001225097.0000
0.9900 100.0 2305105.0000 897518.3000
0.9800 50.0 2006719.0000 622844.5000
0.9600 25.0 1694946.0000 406765.1000
0.9000 10.0 1263597.0000 222422.3000
0.8000 5.0 923762.9000 154889.5000
0.6670 3.0 666210.0000 121891.5000
0.5000 2.0 454702.1000 91235.2800
---------------------------------------------------------
 Log Pearson Type III
2000000

1500000

Actual Data
Value 1000000

500000
Distribution

0
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Weibull Probability
3.- REGISTROS GENERADOS CAUDALES MAXIMOS (m3/S)
ESTACION:HUATIAPA

MEAN OF X .57545E+03
VARIANCE OF X .21177E+06
SKEW OF X .12189E+01

SORTED RECORDED EVENTS

.20000E+04 .14311E+04 .13000E+04 .12000E+04 .95000E+03 .
89000E+03
.80042E+03 .75018E+03 .68035E+03 .66561E+03 .62300E+03 .
60000E+03
.55677E+03 .53000E+03 .52428E+03 .48456E+03 .39987E+03 .
34072E+03
.30110E+03 .30000E+03 .23891E+03 .23559E+03 .22402E+03 .
15070E+03
.14887E+03 .13825E+03 .94775E+02 .89000E+02 .40000E+02

MEAN OF LN(X) .60081E+01

VARIANCE OF LN(X) .85829E+00
SKEW OF LN(X) -.51816E+00

TRUNCATED NORMAL EVENTS

.14196E+04 .12664E+04 .11653E+04 .10866E+04 .10206E+04 .
96267E+03
.91030E+03 .86195E+03 .81659E+03 .77346E+03 .73203E+03 .
69185E+03
.65256E+03 .61385E+03 .57545E+03 .53705E+03 .49835E+03 .
45906E+03
.41887E+03 .37744E+03 .33432E+03 .28895E+03 .24060E+03 .
18823E+03
.13029E+03 .64269E+02 -.14376E+02 -.11546E+03 -.26867E+03
STANDARD ERROR IS .15691E+03

2 PARAMETER LOGNORMAL EVENTS

.22250E+04 .16344E+04 .13335E+04 .11382E+04 .99657E+03 .
88685E+03
.79810E+03 .72408E+03 .66088E+03 .60592E+03 .55743E+03 .
51411E+03
.47501E+03 .43940E+03 .40671E+03 .37646E+03 .34824E+03 .
32175E+03
.29675E+03 .27300E+03 .25030E+03 .22845E+03 .20726E+03 .
18652E+03
.16599E+03 .14533E+03 .12405E+03 .10121E+03 .74345E+02
STANDARD ERROR IS .75162E+02

3 PARAMETER LOGNORMAL EVENTS

.18955E+04 .14641E+04 .12328E+04 .10774E+04 .96140E+03 .
86935E+03
.79328E+03 .72856E+03 .67228E+03 .62250E+03 .57783E+03 .
53730E+03
.50014E+03 .46577E+03 .43375E+03 .40366E+03 .37517E+03 .
34802E+03
.32199E+03 .29687E+03 .27246E+03 .24856E+03 .22495E+03 .
20139E+03
.17754E+03 .15297E+03 .12694E+03 .98013E+02 .62286E+02
 STANDARD ERROR IS .49205E+02

TYPE 1 EXTREMAL EVENTS

.14441E+04 .12205E+04 .10873E+04 .99094E+03 .91471E+03 .
85113E+03
.79620E+03 .74752E+03 .70354E+03 .66320E+03 .62571E+03 .
59051E+03
.55713E+03 .52522E+03 .49446E+03 .46460E+03 .43540E+03 .
40664E+03
.37809E+03 .34953E+03 .32071E+03 .29134E+03 .26106E+03 .
22937E+03
.19560E+03 .15867E+03 .11667E+03 .65629E+02 -.60876E+01
STANDARD ERROR IS .12921E+03

PEARSON TYPE 3 EVENTS

.18268E+04 .14629E+04 .12521E+04 .11034E+04 .98831E+03 .
89444E+03
.81510E+03 .74636E+03 .68566E+03 .63129E+03 .58200E+03 .
53689E+03
.49528E+03 .45661E+03 .42048E+03 .38649E+03 .35434E+03 .
32380E+03
.29468E+03 .26680E+03 .24003E+03 .21422E+03 .18926E+03 .
16503E+03
.14144E+03 .11839E+03 .95816E+02 .73723E+02 .52573E+02
STANDARD ERROR IS .54772E+02

LOG-PEARSON TYPE 3 EVENTS

MEAN OF X .21637E+03
VARIANCE OF X .47415E+04
SKEW OF X .33857E+00
4.- PRUEBAS DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE

LOG PEARSON TIPO III

Intervalo de Obsevado Esperado (O - E ) (O - E )2 (O - E )2/E

Clase          
-& - 40.00 0 0 0 0 0.00
40 - 150.0 5 4 1 1 0.25
150 - 301 5 6 -1 1 0.17
301- 530 5 7 -2 4 0.57
530 - 680 5 3 2 4 1.33
680 - 1200 5 6 -1 1 0.17
1200- 2500 4 3 1 1 0.00
2500 -&   29    2.49

X2C = 2.49

X2 t = 3.84

X2C < X2 t → O.K

EXTREMO TIPO I

Intervalo de Obsevado Esperado (O - E ) (O - E )2 (O - E )2/E

Clase          
-& - 40.00 0 2 -2 4 0.00
40 - 150.0 5 2 3 9 4.50
150 - 301 5 4 1 1 0.25
301- 530 5 7 -2 4 0.57
530 - 680 5 4 1 1 0.25
680 - 1200 5 7 -2 4 0.57
1200- 2500 4 3 1 1 0.00
2500 -&         6.14

X2C = 6.14

X2 t = 7.81

X2C < X2 t → O.K

 PEARSON TIPO III

Intervalo de Obsevado Esperado (O - E ) (O - E )2 (O - E )2/E

Clase          
-& - 40.00 0 0 0 0 0.00
40 - 150.0 5 3 2 4 1.33
150 - 301 5 6 -1 1 0.17
301- 530 5 8 -3 9 1.13
530 - 680 5 3 2 4 1.33
680 - 1200 5 7 -2 4 0.57
1200- 2500 4 2 2 4 0.00
2500 -&         4.53

X2C = 4.53

X2 t = 3.84

X2C < X2 t → O.K

LOG NORMAL 2 PARAMETROS

Intervalo de Obsevado Esperado (O - E ) (O - E )2 (O - E )2/E

Clase          
-& - 40.00 0 0 0 0 0.00
40 - 150.0 5 1 4 16 16.00
150 - 301 5 7 -2 4 0.57
301- 530 5 9 -4 16 1.78
530 - 680 5 4 1 1 0.25
680 - 1200 5 6 -1 1 0.17
1200- 2500 4 2 2 4 0.00
2500 -&         18.77

X2C = 18.77

X2 t = 5.99

X2C < X2 t → O.K

 LOG NORMAL 3 PARAMETROS

Intervalo de Obsevado Esperado (O - E ) (O - E )2 (O - E )2/E

Clase          
-& - 40.00 0 1 -1 1 0.00
40 - 150.0 5 3 2 4 1.33
150 - 301 5 5 0 0 0.00
301- 530 5 7 -2 4 0.57
530 - 680 5 3 2 4 1.33
680 - 1200 5 8 -3 9 1.13
1200- 2500 4 2 2 4 0.00
2500 -&         4.36

X2C = 4.36

X2 t = 3.84

X2C < X2 t → O.K

5.- SELECCIÓN DE LA DISTRIBUCION PROBABILISTICA

La Distribución probabilística seleccionada es Log Pearson tipo III, pues es la que tiene
mejor correlación con respecto a los información histórica y menor Chi cuadrado.

6.-TIEMPO DE RETORNO REAL

El tiempo de retorno real de una estructura, se determina de la Ecuación de Riesgo de

Falla, considerando una Vida esperada de la Estructura.

R = 1 - ( 1 – 1 / T )n
R = Probabilidad de que un evento máximo X > x ocurra por lo menos una vez en 100
años

T = Tiempo de Retorno Real

n = Vida Esperada de la Estructura

Lo que determina que un tiempo de retorno real de 45 años.

7.- CAUDAL MÁXIMO DE DISEÑO EN FUNCION DE LA VIDA ESPERADA DE LA

ESTRUCTURA Y % DE RIESGO DE FALLA

La determinación del Caudal Máximo de Diseño se realiza graficamente como se

muestra en el gráfico que se adjunta.