Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
de Riesgos 2020
Resumen Ejecutivo
los miembrosthree
community;
partes interesadas
de la of comunidad
the top five de
del Foro Económico
risksmúltiples
by
Mun-
Los sistemas
new pressuressanitarios bajo
impact are also environmental (see Figure I,
dial; Evolving
The tres de los cinco
Risks principales2007–2020).
Landscape riesgos por nuevas
Health presiones
systems around the world are at
impacto of
“Failure son también
climate ambientales
change mitigation (consulte
and la Los ofsistemas
risk becoming sanitarios
unfit for de todo el
purpose. Newmundo
Figura I, The Evolving Risks Landscape corren el riesgo de quedar
adaption” is the number one risk by impact vulnerabilities resulting fromfuera
changingde servicio.
2007-2020). El “fracaso en la mitigación y Las vulnerabilidades nuevas derivadas and de los
and numberaltwo
adaptación by likelihood
cambio climático” overes the next
el riesgo societal, environmental, demographic
10 years, according to our survey. Members cambios en los patrones sociales,
technological patterns threaten to undo the medioam-
número uno por su impacto y el número dos bientales,gains demográficos y prosperity
tecnológicos
of
porthe su Global Shaperslos
probabilidaden Community—the
próximos diez años, dramatic in wellness and
Forum’s younger constituents—show amenazan con deshacer los avances impre-
según nuestra encuesta. Los miembros de la that health systems have supported over the
sionantes en el bienestar y la prosperidad que
even
Comunidad more concern,
de Globalranking
Shapers,environmental
los integrantes last century. sanitarios
Non-communicable diseases—
los sistemas han sustentado duran-
más jóvenes
issues as the topdel risks
Foro,inmuestran
both the short aún más such
te el último siglo. Las enfermedades nomental
as cardiovascular diseases and trans-
preocupación,
and long terms. clasificando las cuestiones illness—have
misibles, como replaced infectious diseases
las enfermedades as
cardiovas-
ambientales como los principales riesgos the leading
culares cause
y las of death, while
enfermedades increases
mentales, han
tantoForum’s
The a corto como a largo plazo.
multistakeholder network in longevityaand
sustituido las the economic and
enfermedades societal
contagiosas
rate “biodiversity loss” as the second most como of
costs principal
managing causa de muerte,
chronic diseasesmientras
haveque
La red de múltiples
impactful and thirdpartes interesadas
most likely risk fordeltheForo el aumento desystems
la longevidad
put healthcare in manyycountries
los costes
califica a la “pérdida de biodiversidad” como el económicos
next decade. The current rate of extinction
segundo riesgo más impactante y el tercero under stress. yProgress
sociales against
de la gestión
pandemicsde lasis
is tens to hundreds enfermedades crónicas han sometido a los
másprobablepara la of times higher
próxima década. than
La the
tasa also being undermined by vaccine hesitancy
sistemas
average over the past 10 million
actual de extinción es una cifra entre decenas years—and and drug sanitarios
resistance,demakingmuchos países a una
it increasingly
gran presión. Los progresos en la lucha contra
yit cientos
is accelerating.
de vecesBiodiversity
mayor queloss has critical
el promedio de difficult to land the final blow against some
las pandemias también se ven socavados por
los últimos 10 millones de años, collapse
implications for humanity, from the y se está of humanity’senbiggest
la indecisión killers. As
la vacunación y laexisting
resistencia a
of food and health
acelerando. La pérdidasystems to the disruption
de biodiversidadtiene health risks resurge and new ones
los medicamentos, lo que hace cadaemerge,
vez más
implicaciones
of entire supplydecisivas
chains. para la humanidad, humanity’s
difícil dar el past
golpesuccesses in overcoming
final a algunos de los mayo-
desde el colapso de los sistemas alimentarios health challenges
res asesinos de la are no guarantee
humanidad. of que
A medida
y sanitarios hasta la interrupción de cadenas
Consequences
de suministro completas.of
future
resurgen results.
los riesgos sanitarios existentes y
surgen otros nuevos, los logros del pasado de
digital fragmentation la humanidad en la superación de los desafíos
Consecuencias
More de lapopulation is
than 50% of the world’s sanitarios no garantizan los resultados futuros.
There is still scope for stakeholders to
fragmentación digital
now online, approximately one million people
address these risks, but the window
go online for their first time each day, and
Más del 50% deglobal
la población mundial of opportunity is closing. Coordinated,
two-thirds of the population own aestá Todavía hay espacio para que las partes
ahora en línea, aproximadamente un millón de multistakeholder
interesadas aborden actionestos
is needed
riesgos, quickly
pero la
mobile device. While digital technology is
personas se conectan en línea por primera vez to mitigate
ventana deagainst
oportunidad the worst outcomes
se está cerrando. Se
bringing
cada día,tremendous
y dos tercioseconomic and mundial
de la población necesita
and builduna acciónacross
resiliency coordinada de múltiples
communities
societal benefits to much of the
poseen un dispositivo móvil. Aunque global
la tecno- partes interesadas para mitigar las peores
and businesses.
population, issues such as unequal
logía digital está aportando enormes benefi- consecuencias y aumentar la capacidad de
cios económicos y sociales a gran parte de la recuperación de las comunidades y las
población mundial, cuestiones como el empresas.
Figure I: The Evolving Risks Landscape, 2007–2020
Infrastructure Blow up in Asset price Asset price Storms and Income disparity Income disparity Income Interstate Involuntary Extreme Extreme Extreme Extreme
breakdown asset prices collapse collapse cyclones disparity conflict migration weather weather weather weather
1st
Chronic Middle East China economic China economic Flooding Fiscal Fiscal Extreme Extreme Extreme Involuntary Natural Climate action Climate action
diseases instability slowdown slowdown imbalances imbalances weather weather weather migration disasters failure failure
2nd
Oil price shock Failed and Chronic Chronic Corruption Greenhouse gas Greenhouse Unemployment Failure of Climate action Natural Cyberattacks Natural Natural
3rd failing states diseases disease emissions gas emissions national failure disasters disasters disasters
governance
China hard Oil price shock Global Fiscal crises Biodiversity loss Cyberattacks Water crises Climate action State collapse Interstate Terrorist Data fraud Data fraud Biodiversity loss
4th landing governance failure or crisis conflict attacks or theft or theft
gaps
Blow up in Chronic Deglobalization Global Climate change Water crises Population Cyberattacks Unemployment Natural Data fraud Climate action Cyberattacks Human-made
asset prices diseases (emerging) governance ageing catastrophes or theft failure environmental
5th gaps disasters
Blow up in Blow up in Asset price Asset price Fiscal crises Financial failure Financial failure Fiscal crises Water crises Climate action Weapons of Weapons of Weapons of Climate action
asset prices asset prices collapse collapse failure mass mass mass failure
1st destruction destruction destruction
Deglobalization Deglobalization Deglobalization Deglobalization Climate change Water crises Water crises Climate action Infectious Weapons of Extreme Extreme Climate action Weapons of
(developed) (developed) (developed) failure diseases mass weather weather failure mass
2nd destruction destruction
Interstate China hard Oil and gas Oil price spikes Geopolitical Food crises Fiscal Water crises Weapons of Water crises Water crises Natural Extreme Biodiversity loss
3rd and civil wars landing price spike conflict imbalances mass disasters weather
destruction
Pandemics Oil price shock Chronic Chronic Asset price Fiscal Weapons of Unemployment Interstate Involuntary Natural Climate action Water crises Extreme
diseases disease collapse imbalances mass conflict migration disasters failure weather
4th destruction
Oil price shock Pandemics Fiscal crises Fiscal crises Energy Energy Climate action Infrastructure Climate action Energy price Climate action Water crises Natural Water crises
price volatility price volatility failure breakdown failure shock failure disasters
5th
Weapons of mass
destruction
Biodiversity loss
Extreme weather
Water crises
Interstate
Interstate Global governance
Global governance
con ict failure
failure
Food crises
3.5
Financial failure
Financial failure
3.47
average Fiscal crises
Fiscal crises Involuntary migration
Involuntary migration
2.5 Data fraud
Data or theft
fraud or theft
Unemployment
Unemployment Asset
Asset bubbles
bubble
Social
Social instability
instability
Critical
Critical infrastructure
infrastructure National
National
failure
failure governance
governance
failure
failure
State collapse
State collapse
Terrorist
Terrorist attacks
attacks Adverse
Adverse technological
technological
advances
advances
Energy
Energy price
price shock
shock
Unmanageable in ation
3.0
Failure of
urban planning
Impact
Illicit trade
Illicit trade
Likelihood 5.0
Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of
Note: Survey respondents were asked to assess the likelihood of the individual global risk on a scale of 1 to 5, 1
Source: World Economic Forum Global
Perception Survey 2019–2020. 1 toRisks
5, 1 representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They
representing a risk that is very unlikely to happen and 5 a risk that is very likely to occur. They also assess the impact
Perception Survey 2019–2020. also assessed the impact of each
on each global
globalrisk
risk on
on aascale
scaleof of 1 5to(1:5,minimal
1 to 1 representing a minimal
impact, 2: minor impact,impact and 5impact,
3: moderate a 4: severe impact and
catastrophic impact. To ensure legibility, the
5: catastrophic names
impact). SeeofAppendix
the globalB forrisks
moreare abbreviated;
details. see Appendix
To ensure legibility, the namesAoffor
the global risks are
the full name and description.abbreviated; see Appendix A for the full name and description.
The GlobalThe GlobalRisks
Shapers Shapers Risks Landscape
Landscape 2020
Figure III: The Global Shapers Risk Landscape 2020 2020
Extreme Extre
Human-made Human-made
weather weat
environmental environmental
disasters Natural disasters
disasters Natural di
2.5 3.0 2.5 3.5 3.0 4.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 3.5 3.0 4.0 3.5 4.0
Likelihood Likelihood
2.5 3.0 2.5 3.5 3.0 4.0 3.5 4.0 2.5 3.0 2.5 3.5 3.0 4.0 3.5 4.0
Likelihood Likelihood
Cyberattacks Cyberattacks
Multistakeholder Shapers
Multistakeholder Shapers
4.0 Information
4.0 Information
infrastructure infrastructure
breakdown breakdown
Data fraud or theft Data fraud or theft
The Global ShapersThe Global Shapers
Community Community is the World
is the World
Economic Forum’s Economic
network ofForum’s
young people
network of young people
3.5 3.5 driving
driving dialogue,
dialogue, action
action and
driving change.
dialogue,
and change.action and change.
Adverse Adverse
technological technological
advances advances Source: World Economic Forum Global Risks Perception Survey 2019–2020.
Note:
Note: We applied the same completion We applied
thresholds the same
to survey completion
responses fromthresholds
the to survey responses from the
Global Shapers
Global Shapers as to the multi-stakeholder as toAppendix
sample (see the multi-stakeholder sample (see Appendix B: Global Risks
B: Global Risks
3.0 3.0 Note: We applied the same completion thresholds to survey responses from the
Impact
Impact
Perception Survey
Perception Survey and Methodology). and Methodology).
Global Shapers as to the multistakeholder sample (see Appendix B: Global Risks
Perception Survey
We received 236 and for
responses Methodology).
PartWe received
1 “The World236 responses
in 2020” for Part
and 190 1 “The
for Part 2 World in 2020” and 190 for Part 2
“Assessment
“Assessment of Global Risks”. The data for Part 3of“Global
GlobalRisk
Risks”. The data for Part 3 “Global Risk Interconnections”
Interconnections”
was received
We wasPart
not used. 236 responses for not used.
1 “The World in 2020” and 190 for Part 2
2.5 3.0 2.5 3.5 3.0 4.0 3.5 4.0“Assessment of Global Risks”. The data for Part 3 “Global Risk Interconnections”
Likelihood Likelihood were not used.
Figure IV: The Global Risks Interconnections Map 2020
he GlobalThe Global
Risks Risks Interconnections
Interconnections Map 2020 Map 2020
4.0
Extreme weather
Extreme weather Human-made Human-made
environmental disaster
environmental disaster
disasters disasters
Global Global
governance governance
Weapons of mass
destruction
Weapons of mass
destruction
failure failure
Water crises Water crises
Climate Climate action
action
failure failure
Critical infrastructure
Critical infrastructure
3.5 failure failure
Average
Interstate Interstate
3.47 Involuntary migration
Involuntary migration con ict con ict
ation Information National National
ructure infrastructure governance governance
down breakdown failure failure Illicit trade Illicit trade
Cyberattacks Cyberattacks
Social instability
Social instability
Terrorist attacks Terrorist attacks
Unemployment Unemployment
Fiscal crises Fiscal crises
Asset
Assetbubbles
bubble Asset
Assetbubbles
bubble De ation De ation
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