"Universidad Nacional de San Antonio Abad

"Facultad de Ingenieria Electrica, Electronica, Mecani

Carrera Profesinonal: "Ingenieria Mecanica
Curso: Ingenieria de Mantenimiento I Alumnos:
Docente: Ing. Rene Rosado Pacheco
Trabajo: Calculo de la Confiabilidad de fajas Transportadoras por la herramienta Exce

I) Datos Iniciales:
Numero de Falla Tiempo entre Fallas (TBF)
1 16.58
2 17.8
3 18
4 18.98
5 22.66
6 24.45
7 24.67
8 32.34
9 47.4
10 67.34
11 72
12 79.7
13 88.93
14 116.95
15 152.4
16 182.57
17 238.18
18 290.3
19 402.63
20 646.41
21 781.3

II) Valores medios clasificados de fallos en función del tamaño de la muestra:

Valores Medios Clasificados

Numero de Falla Tiempo entre Fallas (TBF)
F(t) 1.2
1 16.580 0.03
2 17.800 0.08
3 18.000 0.13 1
4 18.980 0.17
5 22.660 0.22
0.8
 1

6 24.450 0.27 0.8

7 24.670 0.31
8 32.340 0.36
9 47.400 0.41 0.6

F(t)
10 67.340 0.45
11 72.000 0.50
12 79.700 0.55
0.4
13 88.930 0.59
14 116.950 0.64
15 152.400 0.69
0.2
16 182.570 0.73
17 238.180 0.78
18 290.300 0.83
19 402.630 0.87 0
0 100
20 646.410 0.92
21 781.300 0.97

III) Calculo del parametro inicial de localizacion:

t1 19
t2 32
t3 90

La Distribucion de Weibull se Presenta Normalmente por la Funcion Acumulada de Distribucion de Fallos F(t):

En la forma lineal se tiene:

III) Tabulando los valores de X e Y:

X = Ln(t-t0)
t F(t) Y = Ln{-Ln[1-F(t)]}
t0 = 15
16.58 0.033 -3.3945162444 0.457424847
17.8 0.0797 -2.4882453153 1.0296194172
18 0.1264 -2.0014982128 1.0986122887
18.98 0.1731 -1.6603549079 1.3812818193
22.66 0.2198 -1.3935003343 2.0360119838
24.45 0.2665 -1.1714162945 2.2460147415
24.67 0.3132 -0.9789319874 2.2690283095
32.34 0.3599 -0.8071429511 2.8530159714
47.4 0.4066 -0.6503050114 3.4781584228
67.34 0.4533 -0.5044210551 3.9577608971
 72 0.5 -0.3665129206 4.0430512678
79.7 0.5466 -0.2344819121 4.1697612015
88.93 0.5933 -0.1057167279 4.3031186996
116.95 0.64 0.0214201885 4.624482497
152.4 0.6867 0.1489320128 4.9228963798
182.57 0.7334 0.2791501826 5.1214011744
238.18 0.7801 0.4151397451 5.4079786208
290.3 0.8268 0.5615044506 5.6178614121
402.63 0.8735 0.7263464216 5.9600512764
646.41 0.9202 0.927520155 6.4479554138
781.3 0.9669 1.2261907467 6.641573738

Aplicando SOLVER para calcular "a" y "b":

Y X a b Y0
-3.3945162 0.45742485 0.67275226 -2.9433564 -2.6356228
-2.4882453 1.02961942 -2.2506776
-2.0014982 1.09861229 -2.2042625
-1.6603549 1.38128182 -2.0140959
-1.3935003 2.03601198 a b -1.5736247
-1.1714163 2.24601474 0 0 -1.4323449
-0.978932 2.26902831 -1.4168625
-0.807143 2.85301597 -1.0239835
-0.650305 3.47815842 -0.6034175
-0.5044211 3.9577609 -0.2807638
-0.3665129 4.04305127 -0.2233845
-0.2344819 4.1697612 -0.1381401
-0.1057167 4.3031187 -0.0484236
0.02142019 4.6244825 0.16777465
0.14893201 4.92289638 0.36853326
0.27915018 5.12140117 0.50207781
0.41513975 5.40797862 0.69487343
0.56150445 5.61786141 0.83607255
0.72634642 5.96005128 1.06628156
0.92752016 6.44795541 1.39452017
1.22619075 6.64157374 1.52477733

Suma de minimos
cuadrados a minimizar
con solver

La ecuacion de la recta sera:

IV) Calculo de los parametros de Weibull

Parametro de forma:

a= β= 0.67275226

TBF (t) X=Ln(t-t0)

16.580 0.457425
17.800 1.029619
18.000 1.098612
18.980 1.381282
22.660 2.036012
24.450 2.246015
24.670 2.269028
32.340 2.853016
47.400 3.478158
67.340 3.957761
72.000 4.043051
79.700 4.169761
88.930 4.303119
116.950 4.624482
152.400 4.922896
182.570 5.121401
238.180 5.407979
290.300 5.617861
402.630 5.960051
646.410 6.447955
781.300 6.641574

V) Calculo de Confiabilidad R(t):

ϒ= 15 β=

TBF (t) R(t)=e^(-[(t-γ)/η]^β )

16.580 0.9427909
17.800 0.9170702
18.000 0.9133061
18.980 0.8961225 1

0.9

0.8
 1
22.660 0.8433457 0.9
24.450 0.8218210
24.670 0.8193086 0.8
32.340 0.7443806 0.7
47.400 0.6379205
0.6
67.340 0.5375566
72.000 0.5182075 0.5

R(t)
79.700 0.4887642 0.4
88.930 0.4570007
116.950 0.3783018 0.3
152.400 0.3047750 0.2
182.570 0.2571902
0.1
238.180 0.1926876
290.300 0.1501064 0
0 100 200
402.630 0.0918754
646.410 0.0363397
781.300 0.0229139

VI) Curva de Distribución Acumulada (Inconfiabilidad) F(t):

TBF (t) F(t)=1-e^(-[(t-γ)/η]^β )

16.580 0.0572091
17.800 0.0829298
18.000 0.0866939
1.2
18.980 0.1038775
22.660 0.1566543
24.450 0.1781790 1
24.670 0.1806914
32.340 0.2556194
0.8
F(t)=1-e^(-[(t-γ)/η]^β )

47.400 0.3620795
67.340 0.4624434
72.000 0.4817925 0.6
79.700 0.5112358
88.930 0.5429993 0.4
116.950 0.6216982
152.400 0.6952250
182.570 0.7428098 0.2
238.180 0.8073124
290.300 0.8498936 0
402.630 0.9081246 0 100 20
646.410 0.9636603
781.300 0.9770861
n Antonio Abad del Cusco"
Electronica, Mecanica y Minas"
Ingenieria Mecanica"
ROJAS VITORINO, Frank R. Codigo: 073211 - C
TERRAZAS ORTEGA, Weymar Codigo: 070291

or la herramienta Excel Solver plus

iempo entre Fallas (TBF)

16.58
17.8
18
18.98
22.66
24.45
24.67
32.34
47.4
67.34
72
79.7
88.93
116.95
152.4
182.57
238.18
290.3
402.63 i: elemento
646.41 n: numero de elemento
781.3

e la muestra:

1.2

0.8
 1

0.8

0.6
F(t)

0.4

0.2

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

t0 = ϒ : Parametro inicial de localizacion

15.2444444 t0 = 15

a de Distribucion de Fallos F(t):

Y a b Y0 (Y0 - Y)^2
-3.3945162 0 0 0 11.5227405
-2.4882453 0 6.19136475
-2.0014982 0 4.0059951
-1.6603549 0 2.75677842
-1.3935003 0 1.94184318
-1.1714163 0 1.37221614
-0.978932 0 0.95830784
-0.807143 0 0.65147974
-0.650305 0 0.42289661
-0.5044211 0 0.2544406
-0.3665129 0 0.13433172
-0.2344819 0 0.05498177
-0.1057167 0 0.01117603
0.02142019 0 0.00045882
0.14893201 0 0.02218074
0.27915018 0 0.07792482
0.41513975 0 0.17234101
0.56150445 0 0.31528725
0.72634642 0 0.52757912
0.92752016 0 0.86029364
1.22619075 0 1.50354375
33.7581616
Suma de minimos
cuadrados a minimizar
con solver
(Y0 - Y)^2
0.57591928
0.05643842 Ecuacion de la Recta
0.04111335
7
0.12513271
0.0324448
6
0.06808374
0.19178311
0.0470198 5

0.00219844
Y = Ln{-Ln[1-F(t)]}

0.05002256 4
0.02048574
0.00928174 3
0.00328251
0.02141963 2
0.04822471
0.04969673 1
0.07825094
0.07538764 0
0.1155559 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2

0.21808901 X = Ln(t-t0)
0.08915395

1.91898469

Y = 0.67275 X + -2.9434
 Parametro de Escala:

b= -2.9433564

-2.9433564 4.6666

η= 106.335586

Y=lnln(1/1-F(t)) 1-F(t)
-3.394516 0.9673
-2.488245 0.9206
-2.001498 0.8738
-1.660355 0.8271
-1.393500 0.7804
-1.171416 0.7336
-0.978932 0.6869
-0.807143 0.6402
-0.650305 0.5935
-0.504421 0.5467
-0.366513 0.5000
-0.234482 0.4533
-0.105717 0.4065
0.021420 0.3598
0.148932 0.3131
0.279150 0.2664
0.415140 0.2196
0.561504 0.1729
0.726346 0.1262
0.927520 0.0794
1.226191 0.0327

0.67275226 η = 106.335586

Confiabilidad
1

0.9

0.8
 Confiabilidad
1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5
R(t)

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900
TBF (t)

Inconfiabilidad
1.2

0.8
F(t)=1-e^(-[(t-γ)/η]^β )

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

TBF (t)
900
 Y X
-3.3945162 0.45742485
-2.4882453 1.02961942
-2.0014982 1.09861229
-1.6603549 1.38128182
-1.3935003 2.03601198
-1.1714163 2.24601474
-0.978932 2.26902831
-0.807143 2.85301597
-0.650305 3.47815842
-0.5044211 3.9577609
-0.3665129 4.04305127
-0.2344819 4.1697612
-0.1057167 4.3031187
0.02142019 4.6244825
0.14893201 4.92289638
0.27915018 5.12140117
0.41513975 5.40797862
1 2 0.56150445 5.61786141
0.72634642 5.96005128
0.92752016 6.44795541
1.22619075 6.64157374
 Y
-3.3945162 a b
-2.4882453 0 0
-2.0014982
-1.6603549
-1.3935003
-1.1714163
-0.978932
-0.807143
-0.650305
-0.5044211
-0.3665129
-0.2344819
-0.1057167
0.02142019
0.14893201
0.27915018
0.41513975
0.56150445
0.72634642
0.92752016
1.22619075

Suma de minimos
cuadrados a minimizar
con solver
 Y0 (Y0 - Y)^2
0 11.5227405
0 6.19136475
0 4.0059951
0 2.75677842
0 1.94184318
0 1.37221614
0 0.95830784
0 0.65147974
0 0.42289661
0 0.2544406
0 0.13433172
0 0.05498177
0 0.01117603
0 0.00045882
0 0.02218074
0 0.07792482
0 0.17234101
0 0.31528725
0 0.52757912
0 0.86029364
0 1.50354375
33.7581616
Suma de minimos
cuadrados a minimizar
con solver