¿Es sostenible la reducción

del hurto de automotores

mediante atraco en Bogotá?
Can motor vehicle robbery hold-up be reduced
in a sustainable manner in Bogota?
Quão sustentável é reduzir o roubo de carros
por furto em Bogotá?
fecha de recepción: 2010/11/11 fecha de aceptación: 2011/05/08

César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy1

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RESUMEN

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, pp. 349-372, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia 349
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

ABSTRACT

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,J*!.*&$3$,*+5*!K%5,#&$!3+!.#435*L3+,*&6*+,3#+!$,&%,*'7; 5%+%!L!@">:\D];

RESUMO

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$*+,%/#$!5#)#!K(&,#$;!d$!)%3$!&*4*6%+,*$8!*$,%,3$,35%)*+,*8!$i#!%$!6*+/%$!
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K%,#&*$!/*!.*&$3$,h+53%!+%!*$,&%,Q'3%!/*!3+,*&6*+fi#!/%!.#4153%; &35%+%!L!@">:\D];

350
 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

Introducción
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351
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

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1100
1000
900
800
700 Automotores
600
500 Automóviles (Chevrolet, Renault, Mazda)
400
300
200
100
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Años

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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352
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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
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353
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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354
 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
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355
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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356
 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

A$BC&-"*&3&"&S

Mazda 3 Mazda 6
Ventas Ventas
Atracos participación Atracos participación
70 5,0% 45 4,0%
4,5% 40 3,5%
60
4,0% 35 3,0%
50 3,5%
30
3,0% 2,5%
40 25
2,5% Vtas Nal. e Imp. (%) 2,0% Vtas Nal. e Imp. (%)
30 20
2,0% Atracos Atracos
1,5%
15
20 1,5% Atracos t-1 Atracos t-1
1,0%
1,0% 10
10 Coeficiente 0,5% Coeficiente
0,5% 5
correlación: 0,85 correlación: 0,70
0 0,0% 0 0,0%
2006

2008

2009

2006

2008

2009
2004

2004
2003

2005

2007

2003

2005

2007
Años Años

Clío Megane
Ventas Ventas
Atracos participación Atracos participación
80 9,0% 60 9,0%

70 8,0% 8,0%
50
7,0% 7,0%
60
6,0% 40 6,0%
50
5,0% 5,0%
40 30
4,0% Vtas Nal. e Imp. (%) 4,0%
Vtas Nal. e Imp. (%)
30
3,0% Atracos 20 3,0%
Atracos
20 2,0% 2,0%
Atracos (t-2) Atracos (t-2)
10
10 1,0% 1,0%
Coeficiente Coeficiente
0 0,0% correlación: 0,94 0 0,0% correlación: 0,74
2002

2003

2007

2002

2003

2007
2004

2005

2006

2008

2009

2004

2005

2006

2008

2009
Años Años

ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
Corsa Optra
Ventas Ventas
Atracos Atracos participación
participación
160 30,0% 18 18,0%

140 16 16,0%
25,0%
14 14,0%
120
20,0% 12 12,0%
100
10 10,0%
80 15,0%
8 8,0% Vtas Nal. e Imp. (%)
60 Vtas Nal. e Imp. (%)
10,0% 6 6,0% Atracos
40 Atracos
4 4,0% Coeficiente
5,0%
20 Coeficiente 2 2,0% correlación: 0,80
correlación: 0,93
0 0,0% 0 0,0%
2004

2006

2008

2009
2006

2008

2009

2005

2007
2004
2003

2005

2007

Años Años

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357
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

Hipótesis de trabajo II
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Evidencia
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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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358
 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

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5#+!(+!6*J15(4#!.%&,35(4%&;!D(&%+,*!4#$!%M#$!NOOm!%4!NOOE8!4#$!%(,#)A634*$!,3.#!$%46%)*+,# F!*+!
B#'#,C8!3+54(3/#$!4#$!,%-3$8!7!4#$!J(&,%/#$!)*/3%+,*!%,&%5#8!)%&5%$!<%T/%8!c*+%(4,!7!?J*6&#4*,8!

ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
&*'3$,&%&#+!(+%!5#&&*4%53A+!43+*%4!/3&*5,%!Z%)2%$!6%&3%24*$!$*!)(*6*+!*+!4%!)3$)%!/3&*553A+]!7!
*$,%/1$,35%)*+,*!$3'+3R!5%,36%!Z%!(+!+36*4!/*4!EFn]8!5(7#!5#*R!53*+,*!K(*!/*!O8HH!Z'&CR!5%!H];

A$BC&-"&T

Atracos Salvamentos
850 240
230
750
220
650 Atracos automóviles (Chevrolet, Renault, Mazda)
210
550 200 Salvamentos automoviles
190
450
180 Coeficiente
350 correlación: 0,88
170
250 160
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Años

?!)9,)@!?@?c@L<=Bdp8!a%$*5#4/%V!5C45(4#$!.&#.3#$;

F! =+!4%!.C'3+%!_*2!/*!a%$*5#4/%8!/#+/*!$*!#2,(6#!4%!3+K#&)%53A+!.&3)%&3%!$#2&*!B#'#,C8!$*!*+5(*+,&%+!%'&*'%/#$!4#$!/%,#$8!$3+!
/3$5&3)3+%&!.#&!,3.#!/*!6*J15(4#8!+3!)%&5%!#!41+*%!/*!%(,#)A634;!"%!5%+,3/%/!%+(%4!/*!$%46%)*+,#$!/*!%(,#)A634*$!K(*!*$,3)%/%!%!
.%&,3&!/*4!J*5J#!/*!0(*!%4&*/*/#&!/*!4%!)3,%/!/*!4#$!6*J15(4#$!%$*'(&%/#$!7!J(&,%/#$8!&*.#&,%/#$!.#&!4%$!5#).%M1%$!%$*'(&%/#&%$!
%'&*)3%/%$8!$#+!%(,#)A634*$;

359
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

9#&!41+*%$!/*!%(,#$8!5#+$3/*&%/%$!.#&!%.%&,*8!$*!*).4*A!5#)#!6%&3%24*!q.&#-7b!/*!4#$!$%46%L
)*+,#$! *4! +j)*&#! Z+36*4]! $*)*$,&%4! /*! %(,#$! &*.#&,%/#$! *+! 4%$! %$*'(&%/#&%$! 2%S#! 4%! 5%,*L
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/*!)#/#!/3&*5,#!7!*$,%/1$,35%)*+,*!$3'+3R!5%,36#!Z%!(+!+36*4!/*4!EFn]8!5#+!4#$!%,&%5#$!$*)*$L
,&%4*$!Z'&CR!5%$!E!%! N];

A$BC&-"*&6&"&'3>&D!,%*&<!$,"#%*&)9&",$"-%&O&"!,%*&$)2%$,"#%*&2%$&2U$#(#"&,%,"M&<!$,%&1J+L7

Mazda 3 Clío
60 60
55
50
50
45
40
40
30 Atracos 35 Atracos
PTH 30 PTH
20 25
Coeficiente Coeficiente
correlación: 0,75 20 correlación: 0,81
10
15
0 10
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Años Años

Corsa Optra
120 20
18
100
16

80 14
12
ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

60 Atracos 10 Atracos
PTH 8 PTH
40
6 Coeficiente
Coeficiente
correlación: 0,74
correlación: 0,81 4
20
2
0 0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Años Años

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$3!5#+$3/*&%)#$!0(*!%4&*/*/#&!/*!(+!NOn!/*!4#$!%(,#$!J(&,%/#$!)*/3%+,*!%,&%5#8!/*!4%$!41+*%$!
%+%43T%/%$8!5%&*5*!/*!$*'(&#V!*$!/*53&8!J%7!(+!NOn!%.&#-3)%/#!/*!/3K*&*+53%!*+,&*!*4!.%&0(*!
/*!%(,#$!%!.%&,3&!/*4!5(%4!$*!&*'3$,&%+!4#$!/%,#$!/*!4%!9#4351%!7!4#$!/*!4%$!%$*'(&%/#&%$;!>/*)C$8!
,#/%$!4%$!5#&&*4%53#+*$!K(*&#+!5#+,*).#&C+*%$8!$3+!&*T%'#$!*+!4%$!$*&3*$!/*!/%,#$8!%!/3K*&*+53%!
/*!4#!$(5*/3/#!5#+!4%!.%&,353.%53A+!/*!4%$!6*+,%$!/*!4%$!41+*%$!%K*5,%/%$;

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&*4%53A+!$3'+3R!5%,36%!*+,&*!4#$!5%,%4#'%/#$!.#&!.Q&/3/%!,#,%4!J(&,#!Z6%&3%24*!q.&#-7b]!7!4#$!0(*!
K(*&#+!#2S*,#!/*!%,&%5#!Z'&CR!5%! o];!=+!*$,*!5%$#8!4%!6%&3%24*!q.&#-7b!.&*$*+,A!(+%!5#&&*4%53A+!
43+*%4!Z5#+!(+!+36*4!/*!$3'+3R!5%+53%!/*4!EFn]!5#+!4%!.%&,353.%53A+!/*!4%$!6*+,%$!/*!4#$!<*'%+*;!
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P! "%!41+*%!<%T/%!P!K(*!#)3,3/%8!.#&!*&&#&8!*+!4%!$#4353,(/!/*!3+K#&)%53A+!%4!@+$,3,(,#!:%53#+%4!/*!@+6*$,3'%53A+!7!9&*6*+53A+!/*!a&%(/*!
Z@:@a]8!0(*!$3&63A!/*!K(*+,*!7!0(*!K(*!5&*%/#!.#&!*4!'&*)3#!%$*'(&%/#&;

360
 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

4%$!6%&3%24*$!q%,&%5#$b!7!q.Q&/3/%!,#,%4!J(&,#b!+#!*$,(63*&%+!&*4%53#+%/%$!*+,&*!$18!.%&%!4#$!%(,#$!
<*'%+*8!%!.*$%&!/*!5#).%&,3&!(+%!,*&5*&%!6%&3%24*!Z.%&,353.%53A+!/*!4%$!6*+,%$]8!&*6*4%&1%!0(*!
5(%+/#!$(&'*!(+%!5#+*-3A+!*+,&*!*44%$!*$!.#&0(*!*)*&'*!(+%!/3+C)35%!/*!3+,*&%553A+!.&#.3%8!
5#)#!*+!4#$!5%$#$!%+,*&3#&*$!/*!4#$!<%T/%!o8!c*+%(4,!?41#8!?J*6&#4*,!?#&$%!7!d.,&%;

A$BC&-"&'N>&V)F"9)&<!$,"#%*&)9&",$"-%&O&V)F"9)&$)2%$,"#%*&2%$&2U$#(#"&,%,"M&<!$,%&1J+L7

Megane
40

35

30

ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
25 Atracos
PTH
20
Coeficiente
15 correlación: -0,04

10
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Años

?!)9,)@!?@?c@L<=Bdp8!@:@aV!5C45(4#$!.&#.3#$;

D*!#,&#!4%/#8!u0(Q!K%5,#&!6*&3R!5%24*!/*!/*)%+/%!*$,3)(4%!%4!)*&5%/#!+*'&#w!>!)#/#!/*!q.&#L
-7b8!$*!*).4*A!*4!+36*4!/*!%(,#$!&*5323/#$!*+!4%$!%$*'(&%/#&%$!.#&!.Q&/3/%!.%&53%4!.#&!/%M#$ G!
.%&%!,*+*&!(+%!3/*%!/*4!'&%/#!/*!%K*5,%53A+!/*!4%$!/3K*&*+,*$!41+*%$!%+%43T%/%$!/*23/#!%!%6*&1%$!
/*!4#$!6*J15(4#$;!>(+0(*!4%!6%&3%24*!3/*%4!$*&1%!*4!&*'3$,&#!/*!%553/*+,%43/%/!63%4!/*!4%!X*5&*,%&1%!
/*!<#6343/%/!/*!B#'#,C8!/3$5&3)3+%/#!.#&!*4!,3.#!/*!%(,#!3+6#4(5&%/#!7!*4!/%M#!$(K&3/#!.#&!*4!
)3$)#8!+#!,(63)#$!%55*$#!%!*$,%!3+K#&)%53A+;!"%!/*)%+/%!/*!.3*T%$!3+5*+,36%!*4!*+5%&'#!/*!
J(&,#$!/*!%(,#$!.#&!.%&,*!/*!%4'(+#$!5#)*&53%43T%/#&*$!.%&%!$%,3$K%5*&!%!$($!543*+,*$V!*$!/*53&8!
$*!*$.*&%!0(*!4%!&*4%53A+!/*4!+j)*&#!Z+36*4]!/*!%(,#$!&*5323/#$!.#&!.Q&/3/%!.%&53%4!/%M#!5#+!4#$!
0(*!J%+!$3/#!#2S*,#!/*!%,&%5#$!$*%!/3&*5,%!#!.#$3,36%!Z0(*!%)2%$!6%&3%24*$!$*!)(*6%+!*+!4%!)3$L
)%!/3&*553A+];!"%$!5#&&*4%53#+*$!43+*%4*$!5#+!4#$!%(,#$!J(&,%/#$!.#&!%,&%5#$!+#!K(*&#+!*$,%/1$L
,35%)*+,*!$3'+3R!5%,36%$!#!.&*$*+,%&#+!(+!$3'+#!+*'%,36#!Z&*4%53A+!3+6*&$%]!3+*$.*&%/#!Z5(%/&#!
m];!=$!.&#2%24*8!*+,#+5*$8!0(*!4%!6%&3%24*!q.Q&/3/%!.%&53%4!/%M#b!K(*&%!(+%!q.&#-7b!3+%/*5(%/%;

G! X*!*$5#'3A!*4!&*'3$,&#!/*!.Q&/3/%!.%&53%4!/%M#$8!*+!5%)23#!/*!.Q&/3/%!,#,%4!/%M#$8!.(*$!*4!.&3)*&#!*$8!*+!.&#)*/3#!%+(%4!/*$/*!*4!
NOOO8!NF!6*5*$!)C$!+()*&#$#!0(*!*4!$*'(+/#;

361
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

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?!)9,)@!?@?c@L<=Bdp8!@:@aV!5C45(4#$!.&#.3#$;

Hipótesis de trabajo III

\+%!.%&,*!/*!4#$!%,&%5#$!$#+8!*+!&*%43/%/8!%(,#&&#2#$!Z@:@a8!NOOE];!>4'(+#$!5#).&%/#&*$!/*!.AL
43T%$!K&*+,*!%4!J(&,#!/*!$(!%(,#!$3)(4%+!4#$!%,&%5#$!.%&%!5#2&%&!*4!$*'(&#;!9%&%!*$,#!%5(*&/%+!*4!
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%!4#$!$*'(&#$!*+!4%!0(*!J%7!5#).4353/%/!/*!4%!%.%&*+,*!615,3)%!/*4!%,&%5#!5#+!4#$!/*43+5(*+,*$;

Evidencia
=+!(+!,&%2%S#!5#+S(+,#!&*%43T%/#!/*$/*!*4!@:@a!7!4%!\+36*&$3/%/!:%53#+%4!/*!?#4#)23%!ZNOOE]8!$*!J%!
5%45(4%/#!0(*!4%!)*/3%!.&#2%24*!/*!%(,#&&#2#$!*+!*4!.%1$!*$!/*4!P8Hn8!5#+!(+!3+,*&6%4#!/*!5#+R!%+T%!
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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

.%$%&#+!*4!)%&'*+!.&#2%24*!/*!%(,#&&#2#$!Z'&CR!5%! m];!9#&!,%+,#8!%4!/*$5#+,%&!*$,*!)%&'*+!%j+!*$!
.#$324*!%$*'(&%&!0(*!J(2#!5%)23#$!*+!4#$!+36*4*$!/*!%,&%5#$;!=+!#,&%$!.%4%2&%$8!4#$!%(,#&&#2#$!J%+!
$3/#!3+$(R!53*+,*$!.%&%!/%&!5(*+,%8!.#&!$1!$#4#$8!/*4!5#).#&,%)3*+,#!/*!4#$!%,&%5#$;

A$BC&-"&'4>&+"*"&#)&-"0=(%&*)0)*,$"M&#)&",$"-%*&)9&E%F%,B
10"$-"*& <)Q$%M),X&Y)9"!M,&O&V":#"7

130,0% 132,8%

110,0%

90,0%

70,0%

50,0%

30,0% 28,1%
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-10,0% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

-30,0%
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362
 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
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363
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
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365
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

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elaboración propia.

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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A$BC&-"*&'T&O&'6

Proporción capturas flagrancia / recuperaciones Tasas de recuperación por cada cien automotores hurtados
0,40
95
0,35 85

0,30 75

65
0,25 Anual Anual
Semestral 55 Semestral
0,20
45
0,15 35

0,10 25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Años Años
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366
 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

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Conclusiones
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4#$!5(%4*$8!%/*)C$8!J%+!&*'3$,&%/#!.&*53#$!*+!/*5436*!.%&%!*4!)3$)#!.*&1#/#!/*!,3*).#;!d,&#!
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5#$!&*'3$,&%&#+!(+%!5#&&*4%53A+!43+*%4!$3'+3R!5%,36%!7!/3&*5,%!5#+!*4!.&*53#!/*!4#$!%(,#$!+(*6#$!

ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
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367
 César Alfonso Velásquez-Monroy

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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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368
 ¿Es sostenible la reducción del hurto de automotores mediante atraco en Bogotá?

Recomendaciones
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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia
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ISSN 1794-3108. Rev. crim., Volumen 53, número 1, enero-junio 2011, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia

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372