Año Exportaciones (Yt) Pronostico (Ýt) Residuo (Et) Año

2001 25 25 2001
2002 30 30 2002
2003 28 28 2003
2004 26 26 2004
2005 32 32 2005
2006 33 28.2 4.8 2006
2007 37 29.8 7.2 2007
2008 40 31.2 8.8 2008
2009 50 33.6 16.4 2009
2010 45 38.4 6.6 2010
2011 49 41 8 2011
2012 60 44.2 15.8 2012
2013 64 48.8 15.2 2013
53.6

Año Exportaciones (Yt) Yt-1 XY x^2

2001 6869 0
2002 7676 6869 52726444 47183161
2003 9041 7676 69398716 58920976
2004 12563 9041 113582083 81739681
2005 17301 12563 217352463 157828969
2006 23561 17301 407628861 299324601
2007 28110 23561 662299710 555120721
2008 31009 28110 871662990 790172100
2009 27074 31009 839537666 961558081
2010 35806 27074 969411644 733001476
2011 46332 35806 1658963592 1282069636
2012 46361 46332 2147997852 2146654224
2013 42568 46361 1973495048 2149342321
2014 38641 42568 1644870088 1812034624
2015 33982 38641 1313098462 1493126881
400025 372912 12942025619 12568077452
Exportaciones (Yt) "Y"t-1 Triangulo "t"
25 "Y"t-1="Y"t+alfa(Yt-"Y"t)
30 25 5 0.4
28 27 1
26 27.4 -1.4
32 26.84 5.16
70
33 28.9 4.1
37 30.54 6.46
60
40 33.12 6.88
50 35.87 14.13 50
45 41.52 3.48
49 42.91 6.09 40
32 33
60 45.35 14.65 30
30 28
64 51.21 12.79 25 26
56.33
20

10

0
2000 2002 2004 200

teta 0.8678361313
w 5457.035187275

2016 38991.0911350565
2017 39294.9128712902
2018 39558.5803514541
2019 39787.400517377
2020 39985.9789249244
Y"t-1="Y"t+alfa(Yt-"Y"t)

64
60

50 49
45
40
37
32 33
30
28
26

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014