CASA EMIGRANTE

VARIABLE PARA LA SIMULACIN

Incremento de Operaciones de crdito
Incremento en el Monto de los crditos
Incremento de los intereses (inflacin acumulada)
MFR+MFR24 reajustable cada 90 das
Comision de la institucin
Contratacin del servicio de vivienda
TMAR
VAN

5%
8%
2.50%
9.22%
10%
100
30%

OC
MC
IA
TI
CIE
CSV
I

Pasos para la Simulacin del Crystal Ball

Primero: Ponerle nombre a las celdas
Segundo: Vincularlo con el Flujo de Caja
Tercero: Definir supuestos de las variables
Cuarto: Definir la Variable a Estimar
Quinto: Colocar el numero de iteracciones
Sexto: Empezar la Simulacin
Septimo: Crear el Reporte del CB

$446,199.13

PARA ESTE PROYECTO EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DEL 70.92% DE QUE EL VAN SEA MAYOR QUE CERO.
Forecast: VAN
10,000 Trials

Frequency Chart

9,982 Displaye d

.026

256

.019

192

.013

128

.006

64

.000
-$500, 000.00

0
-$125, 000.00

$250,000. 00

$625,000. 00

$1, 000,000. 00

Certainty i s 70. 92% from $0.00 to +Inf inity >0

PARA ESTE PROYECTO EXISTE UNA PROBALBILIDAD DEL 55.34% DE QUE EL VAN SEA MAYOR QUE $100.000
Forecast: VAN
10,000 Trials

Frequency Chart

9,982 Displaye d

.026

256

.019

192

.013

128

.006

64

.000
-$500, 000.00

0
-$125, 000.00

$250,000. 00

$625,000. 00

$1, 000,000. 00

Certainty i s 55. 34% from $100, 000.00 to +Inf inity >0

EXISTE UNA PROBABILIDAD DEL 57.18% DE QUE EL VAN ESTE ENTRE $100.000 HASTA LOS $700.000
Forecast: VAN
10,000 Trials

Frequency Chart

9,982 Displaye d

.026

256

.019

192

.013

128

.006

64

.000
-$500, 000.00

0
-$125, 000.00

$250,000. 00

$625,000. 00

Certainty i s 53. 18% from $100, 000.00 to $700, 000.00 >0

$1, 000,000. 00

.019

192

.013

128

.006

64

.000
-$500, 000.00

0
-$125, 000.00

$250,000. 00

$625,000. 00

Certainty i s 53. 18% from $100, 000.00 to $700, 000.00 >0

$1, 000,000. 00

Pasos para la Simulacin del Crystal Ball

Primero: Ponerle nombre a las celdas
Segundo: Vincularlo con el Flujo de Caja
Tercero: Definir supuestos de las variables
Cuarto: Definir la Variable a Estimar
Quinto: Colocar el numero de iteracciones
Sexto: Empezar la Simulacin
Septimo: Crear el Reporte del CB

E QUE EL VAN SEA MAYOR QUE CERO.

E QUE EL VAN SEA MAYOR QUE $100.000

Grfico No. 76: Anlisis de

Forecast:
10,000 Trials

Frequency

.026

.019

.013

.006

.000
-$500, 000.00

-$125, 000.00

$250,000.

Certainty i s 70. 92% from

FUENTE: Elaborado por el autor.

Grfico No. 77: Anlisis de sen

Forecast:
10,000 Trials

Frequency

.026

.019

.013

.006

.000
-$500, 000.00

-$125, 000.00

$250,000.

Certainty i s 55. 34% from $10

RE $100.000 HASTA LOS $700.000

FUENTE: Elaborado por el autor.

Grfico No. 78: Anlisis de sensibil

Forecast:
10,000 Trials
.026

.019

.013

.006

Frequency

Forecast:
10,000 Trials

Frequency

.026

.019

.013

.006

.000
-$500, 000.00

-$125, 000.00

$250,000.

Certainty i s 53. 18% from $100,

FUENTE: Elaborado por el autor.

Grfico No. 76: Anlisis de sensibilidad (VAN > 0)

Forecast: VAN
00 Trials

Frequency Chart

9,982 Displaye d

.026

256

.019

192

.013

128

.006

64

.000

-$500, 000.00

-$125, 000.00

$250,000. 00

$625,000. 00

$1, 000,000. 00

Certainty i s 70. 92% from $0.00 to +Inf inity >0

E: Elaborado por el autor.

Grfico No. 77: Anlisis de sensibilidad (VAN > 100.000)

Forecast: VAN

000 Trials

Frequency Chart

9,982 Displaye d

.026

256

.019

192

.013

128

.006

64

.000

-$500, 000.00

-$125, 000.00

$250,000. 00

$625,000. 00

$1, 000,000. 00

Certainty i s 55. 34% from $100, 000.00 to +Inf inity >0

E: Elaborado por el autor.

Grfico No. 78: Anlisis de sensibilidad (100.000 < VAN < 700.000)
Forecast: VAN

00 Trials

Frequency Chart

9,982 Displaye d

.026

256

.019

192

.013

128

.006

64

Forecast: VAN

00 Trials

Frequency Chart

9,982 Displaye d

.026

256

.019

192

.013

128

.006

64

.000

-$500, 000.00

E: Elaborado por el autor.

-$125, 000.00

$250,000. 00

$625,000. 00

Certainty i s 53. 18% from $100, 000.00 to $700, 000.00 >0

$1, 000,000. 00

176072340.xls.ms_office

Crystal Ball Report

Simulation started on 3/3/08 at 12:00:13
Simulation stopped on 3/3/08 at 12:01:12
Forecast: VAN
Summary:
Certainty Level is 70.92%
Certainty Range is from $0.00 to +Infinity >0
Display Range is from -$500,000.00 to $1,000,000.00 >0
Entire Range is from -$478,294.13 to $1,299,490.23 >0
After 10,000 Trials, the Std. Error of the Mean is $2,417.36
Statistics:
Trials
Mean
Median
Mode
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coeff. of Variability
Range Minimum
Range Maximum
Range Width
Mean Std. Error

Value
10,000
$149,090.83
$134,653.40
--$241,735.65
$58,436,125,057.62
0.46
3.23
1.62
-$478,294.13
$1,299,490.23
$1,777,784.37
$2,417.36
Forecast: VAN

10,000 Trials

Frequency Chart

9,982 Displayed

.0 2 6

2 56

.0 1 9

1 92

.0 1 3

1 28

.0 0 6

64

.0 0 0
-$ 5 0 0, 00 0 .0 0

0
-$ 1 2 5, 00 0 .0 0

$ 25 0 ,0 0 0. 00

$ 62 5 ,0 0 0. 00

C e rta in ty i s 7 0. 92 % fro m $ 0 .0 0 to + In f in ity > 0

Page 7

$ 1, 0 00 ,0 0 0. 0 0

176072340.xls.ms_office

Forecast: VAN (cont'd)

Percentiles:
Percentile
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%

Assumption: OC

>0
-$478,294.13
-$150,187.77
-$63,062.24
$6,430.51
$69,548.24
$134,653.40
$198,099.45
$266,532.53
$345,989.64
$462,596.24
$1,299,490.23
Assumptions
INCREMENTO EN LAS OPERACIONES DE CREDITO

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean
Standard Dev.

OC

5%
5%

Selected range is from -Infinity to 13%

-10%

Assumption: MC

-3%

5%

13%

20%

INCREMENTO EN LOS MONTOS DE CREDITO

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean
Standard Dev.

MC

8%
4%

Selected range is from -Infinity to 14%

-4%

Assumption: IA

2%

8%

14%

20%

4.75%

7.00%

INCREMENTO INTERESES

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean
Standard Dev.

IA

2.50%
1.50%

Selected range is from -Infinity to 3.50%

-2.00%

Assumption: TI

0.25%

2.50%

TASA DE INTERES
TI

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean
Standard Dev.

9.22%
0.50%

7.72%

Page 8

8.47%

9.22%

9.97%

10. 72%

TI

176072340.xls.ms_office

Selected range is from 8.00% to 10.00%

7.72%

Assumption: CIE

8.47%

9.22%

9.97%

10. 72%

COMISIN DE LA INSTITUCIN ESPAOLA

CIE

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum
Maximum

10%
20%

10%

Assumption: CSV

13%

15%

18%

20%

75. 00

100. 00

COMISIN POR SERVICIO DE VIVIENDA

CSV

Uniform distribution with parameters:

Minimum
0.00
Maximum
100.00

0.00

Assumption: I

25. 00

50. 00

TMAR
I

Normal distribution with parameters:

Mean
Standard Dev.

30%
4%

Selected range is from -Infinity to +Infinity

18%

Page 9

24%

30%

36%

42%

VARIABLES DEL PROYECTO (Condiciones Iniciales)

AO 0
DEMANDA
Incremento de Operaciones de crdito
Incremento en el Monto de los crditos
Incremento de los intereses (inflacin acumulada)
Manejo de Informacin y aprobacin
MFR+MFR24 reajustable cada 90 das
INVERSIONES Y COSTOS
Comision de la institucin
Contratacin del servicio de vivienda
Comisin administradora de fondos
Certificacin del Contrato
Registro de Propiedad y notarizar
Prima de Seguro (0.50%)
Provisin de crditos
GASTO PERSONAL
Oficial de Crdito
Analista de Riesgo
Evaluador de obras y proyectos
Personal operativo
RIESGO DE CARTERA
Reduccin por eficiencia en la morosidad
MORA POR TASA DE INTERES
ESTADO DE RESULTADOS
PARTICIPACIN A TRABAJADORES
IMPUESTOS

ANALISIS DE RENTABILIDAD
TMAR
IMPUESTOS A TRABAJADORES
IMPUESTOS

8.71%

AO 1

AO 2

5%
8%
2.50% ponderacion tasa de inters
1% por crdito
9.22%
9.45%

10.00%
100
0.25%
10
350
0.50%
4.00%

por crdito
por vivienda
por crdito
por vivienda
por vivienda
por crdito
por crdito

CANTIDAD PERSONAL
1
$1,000.00
1
$500.00
1
$500.00
1
$350.00

6.00% ponderacin por mora

10% ponderacin tasas de inters

15%
25%

SIMULADOR CAPM
30%
15%
25%

30%

AO 3

AO 4

AO 5

AO 6

AO 7

AO 8

AO 9

10%
10%
nderacion tasa de inters

12%
7%

10%
11%

8%
14%

11%
10%

5%
12%

-12.0%
5%

9.69%

9.93%

10.18%

10.43%

10.69%

10.96%

11.23%

nderacin por mora

nderacin tasas de inters

AO 10
-10.0%
-6%

11.51%

$446,199.13
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%

PRESUPUESTO PARA DESARROLLO DEL CRDITO DE VIVIENDA PARA EL EMIGRANTE

AO 0
INVERSIN
Contratacin del Servicio de informacin Inst. Fin. Espaola(10% del crdito)
Publicidad y Promocin
Contratacin del Servicio Constructora( $100 por vivienda)
Sistemas de informacin (creacin de web)
Servicios de Red (5 aos)
Instalacin de Equipos tcnicos ( 5 aos)
Software de envo ( 5 aos)

AO 2

AO 3

AO 4

AO 5

AO 6

AO 7

AO 8

AO 9

AO 10

193,415

208,888

229,777

245,861

272,906

311,113

342,224

383,291

402,456

378,308

4,000

4,200

4,620

5,174

5,692

6,147

6,823

7,165

6,305

5,674

197,415

213,088

234,397

251,036

278,598

317,260

349,048

390,456

408,761

383,983

10,000
500
14,000
4,835
400
9,671
77,366
116,772

500
14,700
5,222
420
10,444
83,555
114,842

500
16,170
5,744
462
11,489
91,911
126,276

10,000
500
18,110
6,147
517
12,293
98,345
145,912

500
19,921
6,823
569
13,645
109,162
150,621

500
21,515
7,778
615
15,556
124,445
170,409

10,000
500
23,882
8,556
682
17,111
136,890
197,621

500
25,076
9,582
716
19,165
153,317
208,356

500
22,067
10,061
630
20,123
160,982
214,364

10,000
500
19,860
9,458
567
18,915
151,323
210,624

34,200
28,200
6,000
6,400
4,000
2,400
40,600

28,905
28,905
0
2,400
0
2,400
31,305

29,628
29,628
0
2,400
0
2,400
32,028

30,368
30,368
0
2,400
0
2,400
32,768

31,128
31,128
0
6,400
4,000
2,400
37,528

31,906
31,906
0
2,400
0
2,400
34,306

32,703
32,703
0
2,400
0
2,400
35,103

33,521
33,521
0
2,400
0
2,400
35,921

34,359
34,359
0
2,400
0
2,400
36,759

35,218
35,218
0
2,400
0
2,400
37,618

354,787

359,235

392,701

429,716

466,747

521,974

581,772

634,732

659,883

632,225

1,934,150

2,088,882

2,297,770

2,458,614

2,729,062

3,111,130

3,422,243

3,832,913

4,024,558

3,783,085

131,571

467,517

688,614

919,811

1,155,265

1,406,955

1,684,263

1,976,622

2,289,810

2,586,177

88,797
19,150
4,808
18,816

356,188
20,682
16,344
74,302

529,969
22,750
23,326
112,569

712,217
24,343
29,481
153,771

896,230
27,020
35,257
196,759

1,091,563
30,803
41,006
243,583

1,307,775
33,884
46,289
296,315

1,534,115
37,950
51,385
353,172

1,778,644
39,847
55,365
415,954

2,012,373
37,456
56,775
479,572

-223,216

108,281

295,914

490,095

688,519

884,981

1,102,491

1,341,889

1,629,926

1,953,952

18,000

18,000

18,000

18,000

18,000

90,000
10,000
40,000
50,000
100,000
290,000

COSTOS
Mant. De Equipos de Comunicacin(cada 3 aos)
Envo de Informacin (Emisiones de Estado de crdito)
Notariar y Registro de la Propiedad
Comisin Administradora de Fondos ( 0.25% del crdito)
Certificaciones de firmas en contratos
Prima de Seguro (0.50%)
Provisin de los crditos (4%)

GASTOS
Gastos de Personal
Sueldo nuevo personal
Capacitacin nuevo personal
Gastos de Operacin
Visitas a la perodicas de confirmacin (4 aos)
Visitas de supervisin de la obra

TOTAL DE EGRESOS

AO 1

290,000

Demanda de Crdito ( Monto Anual)

INGRESO
INGRESOS POR CRDITO
Intereses
Manejo de informacin y aprobacin de crditos
Mora (vencido)
Comisin por envi de los pagos

UTILIDAD OPERACIONAL

-290,000

Depreciaciones( - )
UTILIDAD ANTES DE IMPUESTOS

-241,216

90,281

277,914

472,095

670,519

884,981

1,102,491

1,341,889

1,629,926

1,953,952

Participacin a Trabajadores (15%)

13,542

41,687

70,814

100,578

132,747

165,374

201,283

244,489

293,093

Impuestos ( 25%)

19,185

59,057

100,320

142,485

188,058

234,279

285,151

346,359

415,215

-290,000

-241,216

57,554

177,170

300,961

427,456

564,175

702,838

855,454

1,039,078

1,245,644

18,000

18,000

18,000

18,000

18,000

-290,000

-223,216

75,554

195,170

318,961

445,456

564,175

702,838

855,454

1,039,078

1,245,644

UTILIDAD DE EJERCICIO
DEPRECIACIONES (+)

FLUJO NETO (UTI. DEL EJERC. + DEPREC. Y AMORT.)

TIR
VAN

46.30%
$446,199.13

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

-290,000
-223,216
75,554
195,170
318,961
445,456
564,175
702,838
855,454
1,039,078
1,245,644

-290,000
-172,359
45,048
89,855
113,390
122,279
119,583
115,032
108,111
101,399
93,861

-290,000
-462,359
-417,311
-327,456
-214,067
-91,788
27,795
142,828
250,939
352,338
446,199

DEMANDA DE CRDITO HIPOTECARIO PARA VIVIENDA DEL EMIGRANTE

Fecha
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AGO
SEP
OCT
NOV
DIC
AO 1
AO 2
AO 3
AO 4
AO 5
AO 6
AO 7
AO 8
AO 9
AO 10

Monto de Crdito Monto liquido

181,800
151,500
136,350
202,000
121,200
75,750
153,520
127,260
181,800
166,650
173,720
262,600
1,934,150
2,088,882
2,297,770
2,458,614
2,729,062
3,111,130
3,422,243
3,832,913
4,024,558
3,783,085

180,000
150,000
135,000
200,000
120,000
75,000
152,000
126,000
180,000
165,000
172,000
260,000
1,915,000
2,068,200
2,275,020
2,434,271
2,702,041
3,080,327
3,388,360
3,794,963
3,984,711
3,745,628

Nmero de
operaciones
3
3
3
4
3
3
4
3
3
3
4
4
40
42
46
52
57
61
68
72
63
57

Operacin
Promedio
60,000
50,000
45,000
50,000
40,000
25,000
38,000
42,000
60,000
55,000
43,000
65,000
47,875
49,243
49,243
47,045
47,472
50,110
49,658
52,969
63,201
66,010

% Crec.
Monto
8%
10%
7%
11%
14%
10%
12%
5%
-6%

EL EMIGRANTE

TABLA DE AMORTIZACIN PARA LOS CRDITOS DE VIVIENDA

4.59%

% Crec.
Operacin
5%
10%
12%
10%
8%
11%
5%
-12%
-10%

Fecha
ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AGO
SEP
OCT
NOV
DIC
AO 1
AO 2
AO 3
AO 4
AO 5
AO 6
AO 7
AO 8
AO 9
AO 10

Manejo de
Intereses
Informacin y
181,800
1,800
1,397
151,500
1,500
2,549
136,350
1,350
3,576
202,000
2,000
5,098
121,200
1,200
5,986
75,750
750
6,517
153,520
1,520
7,641
127,260
1,260
8,553
181,800
1,800
9,877
166,650
1,650
11,072
173,720
1,720
12,311
262,600
2,600
14,221
1,934,150
19,150
88,797
2,088,882
20,682
356,188
2,297,770
22,750
529,969
2,458,614
24,343
712,217
2,729,062
27,020
896,230
3,111,130
30,803
1,091,563
3,422,243
33,884
1,307,775
3,832,913
37,950
1,534,115
4,024,558
39,847
1,778,644
3,783,085
37,456
2,012,373
29,682,407
293,885 10,307,871

Monto de Crdito

5.14%
Capital
1,515
2,778
3,914
5,597
6,607
7,238
8,518
9,578
11,093
12,482
13,930
16,118
99,367
386,830
595,718
825,495
1,071,357
1,344,263
1,655,376
1,997,600
2,380,891
2,783,347
13,140,245

9.73%
Dividendo
2,912
5,327
7,489
10,695
12,593
13,755
16,159
18,131
20,970
23,554
26,240
30,339
188,164
743,018
1,125,687
1,537,712
1,967,586
2,435,826
2,963,151
3,531,715
4,159,536
4,795,721
23,448,116
326,991

Manejo de Informacin y aprobacin

1%

CRDITOS DE VIVIENDA
0.97%
10% Envo
291
533
749
1,069
1,259
1,376
1,616
1,813
2,097
2,355
2,624
3,034
18,816
74,302
112,569
153,771
196,759
243,583
296,315
353,172
415,954
479,572
2,344,812

94.86%
Saldo
Saldo cartera
Crdito
180,285
180,285
329,008
329,008
461,444
461,444
657,847
657,847
772,440
772,440
840,951
840,951
985,954
985,954
1,103,635
1,103,635
1,274,342
1,274,342
1,428,510
1,428,510
1,588,301
1,588,301
1,834,783
1,834,783
1,834,783
1,834,783
3,382,103
3,536,835
4,875,267
5,238,887
6,347,542
6,872,006
7,734,799
8,529,711
9,119,598
10,296,578
10,575,352
12,063,446
11,999,996
13,898,758
13,452,017
15,542,425
14,693,228
16,542,162

AO 5
AO 6
AO 7

AO 8
AO 9
AO 1

FECHA
AO 1
AO 2
AO 3
AO 4
AO 5
AO 6
AO 7

PESIMISTA
Monto
Operacin
3%
2%
4%
4%
3%
5%
4%
4%
6%
3%
4%
4%

CONDICIN INCIAL
Monto
Operacin
8%
5%
10%
10%
7%
12%
11%
10%
14%
8%
10%
11%

OPTIMISTA
Monto
Operacin
9%
6%
11%
11%
8%
13%
12%
11%
15%
9%
11%
12%

AO 8
AO 9
AO 10

5%
2%
-2%

2%
-5%
-4%

12%
5%
-6%

5%
-12%
-10%

13%
6%
-7%

6%
-13%
-11%

9.22%
1
Jan-08

2
3
4
5
MONTO CREDITO
Feb-08 Mar-08
Apr-08 May-08
ENERO - 08
181,800
INTERES
1,397
1,385
1,374
1,362
1,350
CAPITAL
1,515
1,515
1,515
1,515
1,515
PAGO
2,912
2,900
2,889
2,877
2,865
ENVI
291
290
289
288
287
SALDO
180,285 178,770 177,255 175,740 174,225
FEBRERO - 08
151,500
INTERES
1,164
1,154
1,145
1,135
CAPITAL
1,263
1,263
1,263
1,263
PAGO
2,427
2,417
2,407
2,397
ENVI
243
242
241
240
SALDO
150,238 148,975 147,713 146,450
MARZO - 08
136,350
INTERES
1,048
1,039
1,030
CAPITAL
1,136
1,136
1,136
PAGO
2,184
2,175
2,166
ENVI
218
218
217
SALDO
135,214 134,078 132,941
ABRIL - 08
202,000
INTERES
1,552
1,539
CAPITAL
1,683
1,683
PAGO
3,235
3,222
ENVI
324
322
SALDO
200,317 198,633
MAYO - 08
121,200
INTERES
931
CAPITAL
1,010
PAGO
1,941
ENVI
194
SALDO
120,190
JUN - 08
75,750
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
JUL - 08
153,520
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
AGO - 08
127,260
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
SEPT - 08
181,800
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
OCT - 08
166,650

6
Jun-08

7
Jul-08

8
Aug-08

9
Sep-08

1,339
1,515
2,854
285
172,710

1,327
1,515
2,842
284
171,195

1,315
1,515
2,830
283
169,680

1,304
1,515
2,819
282
168,165

1,125
1,263
2,388
239
145,188

1,116
1,263
2,378
238
143,925

1,106
1,263
2,368
237
142,663

1,096
1,263
2,359
236
141,400

1,021
1,136
2,158
216
131,805

1,013
1,136
2,149
215
130,669

1,004
1,136
2,140
214
129,533

995
1,136
2,132
213
128,396

1,526
1,683
3,210
321
196,950

1,513
1,683
3,197
320
195,267

1,500
1,683
3,184
318
193,583

1,487
1,683
3,171
317
191,900

923
1,010
1,933
193
119,180

916
1,010
1,926
193
118,170

908
1,010
1,918
192
117,160

900
1,010
1,910
191
116,150

582
631
1,213
121
75,119

577
631
1,208
121
74,488

572
631
1,204
120
73,856

567
631
1,199
120
73,225

1,180
1,279
2,459
246
152,241

1,170
1,279
2,449
245
150,961

1,160
1,279
2,439
244
149,682

978
1,061
2,038
204
126,200

970
1,061
2,030
203
125,139
1,397
1,515
2,912
291
180,285

INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
NOV - 08

173,720
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO

DIC - 08

AO 1

AO 2

AO 3

AO 4

AO 5

AO 6

AO 7

262,600
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
1,934,150
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
2,088,882
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
2,297,770
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
2,458,614
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
2,729,062
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
3,111,130
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
3,422,243
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO

AO 8

AO 9

AO 10

3,832,913
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
4,024,558
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO
3,783,085
INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO

INTERES
CAPITAL
PAGO
ENVI
SALDO

1,397
2,549
3,576
5,098
5,986
6,517
1,515
2,778
3,914
5,597
6,607
7,238
2,912
5,327
7,489 10,695 12,593 13,755
291
533
749
1,069
1,259
1,376
180,285 329,008 461,444 657,847 772,440 840,951

7,641
8,553
9,877
8,518
9,578
11,093
16,159
18,131
20,970
1,616
1,813
2,097
985,954 1,103,635 1,274,342

9.22%

9.45%

9.69%

9.93%

10.18%

10.43%

10.69%

10.96%

10
Oct-08

11
Nov-08

12
Dec-08

1,292
1,515
2,807
281
166,650

1,280
1,515
2,795
280
165,135

1,269
1,515
2,784
278
163,620

15,994
18,180
34,174
3,417
163,620

15,463
18,180
33,643
3,364
145,440

14,089
18,180
32,269
3,227
127,260

12,636
18,180
30,816
3,082
109,080

11,101
18,180
29,281
2,928
90,900

9,482
18,180
27,662
2,766
72,720

7,776
18,180
25,956
2,596
54,540

5,978
18,180
24,158
2,416
36,360

1,086
1,263
2,349
235
140,138

1,077
1,263
2,339
234
138,875

1,067
1,263
2,330
233
137,613

12,271
13,888
26,158
2,616
137,613

13,005
15,150
28,155
2,816
122,463

11,863
15,150
27,013
2,701
107,313

10,655
15,150
25,805
2,581
92,163

9,380
15,150
24,530
2,453
77,013

8,034
15,150
23,184
2,318
61,863

6,615
15,150
21,765
2,176
46,713

5,120
15,150
20,270
2,027
31,563

987
1,136
2,123
212
127,260

978
1,136
2,114
211
126,124

969
1,136
2,105
211
124,988

10,084
11,363
21,446
2,145
124,988

11,812
13,635
25,447
2,545
111,353

10,787
13,635
24,422
2,442
97,718

9,702
13,635
23,337
2,334
84,083

8,557
13,635
22,192
2,219
70,448

7,349
13,635
20,984
2,098
56,813

6,075
13,635
19,710
1,971
43,178

4,732
13,635
18,367
1,837
29,543

1,474
1,683
3,158
316
190,217

1,462
1,683
3,145
314
188,533

1,449
1,683
3,132
313
186,850

13,503
15,150
28,653
2,865
186,850

17,659
20,200
37,859
3,786
166,650

16,143
20,200
36,343
3,634
146,450

14,541
20,200
34,741
3,474
126,250

12,849
20,200
33,049
3,305
106,050

11,063
20,200
31,263
3,126
85,850

9,180
20,200
29,380
2,938
65,650

7,195
20,200
27,395
2,740
45,450

892
1,010
1,902
190
115,140

885
1,010
1,895
189
114,130

877
1,010
1,887
189
113,120

7,233
8,080
15,313
1,531
113,120

10,691
12,120
22,811
2,281
101,000

9,784
12,120
21,904
2,190
88,880

8,825
12,120
20,945
2,094
76,760

7,812
12,120
19,932
1,993
64,640

6,743
12,120
18,863
1,886
52,520

5,616
12,120
17,736
1,774
40,400

4,428
12,120
16,548
1,655
28,280

563
631
1,194
119
72,594

558
631
1,189
119
71,963

553
631
1,184
118
71,331

3,972
4,419
8,391
839
71,331

6,741
7,575
14,316
1,432
63,756

6,176
7,575
13,751
1,375
56,181

5,578
7,575
13,153
1,315
48,606

4,947
7,575
12,522
1,252
41,031

4,280
7,575
11,855
1,186
33,456

3,577
7,575
11,152
1,115
25,881

2,837
7,575
10,412
1,041
18,306

1,150
1,279
2,429
243
148,403

1,140
1,279
2,420
242
147,123

1,130
1,279
2,410
241
145,844

6,930
7,676
14,606
1,461
145,844

13,783
15,352
29,135
2,914
130,492

12,641
15,352
27,993
2,799
115,140

11,432
15,352
26,784
2,678
99,788

10,156
15,352
25,508
2,551
84,436

8,808
15,352
24,160
2,416
69,084

7,387
15,352
22,739
2,274
53,732

5,889
15,352
21,241
2,124
38,380

961
1,061
2,022
202
124,079

953
1,061
2,014
201
123,018

945
1,061
2,006
201
121,958

4,807
5,303
10,110
1,011
121,958

11,526
12,726
24,252
2,425
109,232

10,581
12,726
23,307
2,331
96,506

9,582
12,726
22,308
2,231
83,780

8,526
12,726
21,252
2,125
71,054

7,412
12,726
20,138
2,014
58,328

6,237
12,726
18,963
1,896
45,602

4,998
12,726
17,724
1,772
32,876

1,385
1,515
2,900
290
178,770

1,374
1,515
2,889
289
177,255

1,362
1,515
2,877
288
175,740

5,518
6,060
11,578
1,158
175,740

16,609
18,180
34,789
3,479
157,560

15,263
18,180
33,443
3,344
139,380

13,839
18,180
32,019
3,202
121,200

12,335
18,180
30,515
3,051
103,020

10,747
18,180
28,927
2,893
84,840

9,072
18,180
27,252
2,725
66,660

7,306
18,180
25,486
2,549
48,480

AO 1

AO 2

AO 3

AO 4

AO 5

AO 6

AO 7

AO 8

1,280
1,389
2,669
267
165,261

1,270
1,389
2,659
266
163,873

1,259
1,389
2,648
265
162,484

3,809
4,166
7,976
798
162,484

15,356
16,665
32,021
3,202
145,819

14,125
16,665
30,790
3,079
129,154

12,824
16,665
29,489
2,949
112,489

11,448
16,665
28,113
2,811
95,824

9,996
16,665
26,661
2,666
79,159

8,464
16,665
25,129
2,513
62,494

6,849
16,665
23,514
2,351
45,829

1,335
1,448
2,782
278
172,272

1,324
1,448
2,771
277
170,825

2,658
2,895
5,554
555
170,825

16,144
17,372
33,516
3,352
153,453

14,865
17,372
32,237
3,224
136,081

13,512
17,372
30,884
3,088
118,709

12,081
17,372
29,453
2,945
101,337

10,571
17,372
27,943
2,794
83,965

8,978
17,372
26,350
2,635
66,593

7,298
17,372
24,670
2,467
49,221

2,018
2,188
4,206
421
260,412

2,018
2,188
4,206
421
260,412

24,611
26,260
50,871
5,087
234,152

22,682
26,260
48,942
4,894
207,892

20,642
26,260
46,902
4,690
181,632

18,485
26,260
44,745
4,475
155,372

16,208
26,260
42,468
4,247
129,112

13,805
26,260
40,065
4,007
102,852

11,272
26,260
37,532
3,753
76,592

182,790
168,623
153,635
137,791
193,415
193,415
193,415
193,415
376,205
362,038
347,050
331,206
37,620
36,204
34,705
33,121
1,740,735 1,547,320 1,353,905 1,160,490

121,059
193,415
314,474
31,447
967,075

103,405
193,415
296,820
29,682
773,660

84,792
193,415
278,207
27,821
580,245

202,348
186,666
170,074
152,535
208,888
208,888
208,888
208,888
411,236
395,554
378,962
361,423
41,124
39,555
37,896
36,142
1,879,994 1,671,106 1,462,217 1,253,329

134,013
208,888
342,901
34,290
1,044,441

114,469
208,888
323,357
32,336
835,553

228,147
210,466
191,758
229,777
229,777
229,777
457,924
440,243
421,535
45,792
44,024
42,153
2,067,993 1,838,216 1,608,439

171,983
229,777
401,760
40,176
1,378,662

151,099
229,777
380,876
38,088
1,148,885

250,221
230,829
245,861
245,861
496,082
476,690
49,608
47,669
2,212,753 1,966,891

210,311
245,861
456,172
45,617
1,721,030

188,622
245,861
434,484
43,448
1,475,168

284,689
272,906
557,595
55,759
2,456,155

262,625
272,906
535,531
53,553
2,183,249

239,281
272,906
512,187
51,219
1,910,343

332,659
311,113
643,772
64,377
2,800,017

306,878
311,113
617,991
61,799
2,488,904
375,073
342,224
717,297
71,730
3,080,019

11,072
12,311
14,221
88,797
356,188
529,969
712,217
896,230 1,091,563
1,307,775
12,482
13,930
16,118
99,367
386,830
595,718
825,495 1,071,357 1,344,263
1,655,376
23,554
26,240
30,339
188,164
743,018 1,125,687 1,537,712 1,967,586 2,435,826
2,963,151
2,355
2,624
3,034
18,816
74,302
112,569
153,771
196,759
243,583
296,315
1,428,510 1,588,301 1,834,783 1,834,783 3,382,103 4,875,267 6,347,542 7,734,799 9,119,598 10,575,352

1,534,115
1,997,600
3,531,715
353,172
11,999,996

11.23%
AO 9

11.51%
AO 10

11.57%
AO 11

4,085
18,180
22,265
2,226
18,180

2,093
18,180
20,273
2,027
0

3,546
15,150
18,696
1,870
16,413

1,890
15,150
17,040
1,704
1,263

146
1,263
1,409
141
0

3,319
13,635
16,954
1,695
15,908

1,832
13,635
15,467
1,547
2,273

263
2,273
2,535
254
0

5,106
20,200
25,306
2,531
25,250

2,907
20,200
23,107
2,311
5,050

584
5,050
5,634
563
0

3,177
12,120
15,297
1,530
16,160

1,861
12,120
13,981
1,398
4,040

468
4,040
4,508
451
0

2,056
7,575
9,631
963
10,731

1,236
7,575
8,811
881
3,156

365
3,156
3,521
352
0

4,312
15,352
19,664
1,966
23,028

2,652
15,352
18,004
1,800
7,676

888
7,676
8,564
856
0

3,693
12,726
16,419
1,642
20,150

2,320
12,726
15,046
1,505
7,424

859
7,424
8,283
828
0

5,446
18,180
23,626
2,363
30,300

3,489
18,180
21,669
2,167
12,120

1,403
12,120
13,523
1,352
0

11.63%
AO 12

11.69%
AO 13

11.75%
AO 14

11.81%
AO 15

11.86%
AO 16

11.92%
AO 17

11.98%
AO 18

12.04%
AO 19

5,148
16,665
21,813
2,181
29,164

3,358
16,665
20,023
2,002
12,499

1,446
12,499
13,945
1,395
0

5,529
17,372
22,901
2,290
31,849

3,667
17,372
21,039
2,104
14,477

1,675
14,477
16,152
1,615
0

8,604
26,260
34,864
3,486
50,332

5,796
26,260
32,056
3,206
24,072

2,786
24,072
26,857
2,686
0

65,184
193,415
258,599
25,860
386,830

44,542
193,415
237,957
23,796
193,415

22,382
193,415
215,797
21,580
0

93,865
208,888
302,753
30,275
626,665

72,158
208,888
281,047
28,105
417,776

48,346
208,888
257,234
25,723
208,888

24,294
208,888
233,182
23,318
0

129,064
229,777
358,841
35,884
919,108

105,832
229,777
335,609
33,561
689,331

79,771
229,777
309,548
30,955
459,554

53,447
229,777
283,224
28,322
229,777

26,857
229,777
256,634
25,663
0

165,718
245,861
411,580
41,158
1,229,307

141,551
245,861
387,412
38,741
983,446

113,807
245,861
359,668
35,967
737,584

85,782
245,861
331,643
33,164
491,723

57,474
245,861
303,335
30,334
245,861

28,881
245,861
274,742
27,474
0

214,605
272,906
487,511
48,751
1,637,437

188,546
272,906
461,452
46,145
1,364,531

157,907
272,906
430,813
43,081
1,091,625

126,957
272,906
399,863
39,986
818,718

95,694
272,906
368,600
36,860
545,812

64,115
272,906
337,021
33,702
272,906

32,218
272,906
305,124
30,512
0

279,600
311,113
590,713
59,071
2,177,791

250,766
311,113
561,879
56,188
1,866,678

216,017
311,113
527,130
52,713
1,555,565

180,914
311,113
492,027
49,203
1,244,452

145,455
311,113
456,568
45,657
933,339

109,637
311,113
420,750
42,075
622,226

73,457
311,113
384,570
38,457
311,113

36,912
311,113
348,025
34,802
0

346,005
342,224
688,229
68,823
2,737,795

315,249
342,224
657,473
65,747
2,395,570

277,222
342,224
619,446
61,945
2,053,346

238,807
342,224
581,031
58,103
1,711,122

200,001
160,800
342,224
342,224
542,225
503,025
54,222
50,302
1,368,897 1,026,673

121,203
342,224
463,428
46,343
684,449

81,206
342,224
423,431
42,343
342,224

40,806
342,224
383,030
38,303
0

430,583
383,291
813,875
81,387
3,449,621

1,778,644
2,380,891
4,159,536
415,954
13,452,017

397,213
383,291
780,504
78,050
3,066,330

354,844
383,291
738,135
73,814
2,683,039

312,041
383,291
695,332
69,533
2,299,748

268,801
225,121
180,997
383,291
383,291
383,291
652,092
608,412
564,288
65,209
60,841
56,429
1,916,456 1,533,165 1,149,874

136,427
383,291
519,718
51,972
766,583

91,406
383,291
474,697
47,470
383,291

45,931
383,291
429,223
42,922
0

463,415
402,456
865,871
86,587
3,622,102

419,159
402,456
821,615
82,162
3,219,647

374,449
402,456
776,905
77,690
2,817,191

329,281
283,652
237,559
190,997
402,456
402,456
402,456
402,456
731,737
686,108
640,014
593,453
73,174
68,611
64,001
59,345
2,414,735 2,012,279 1,609,823 1,207,367

143,964
402,456
546,420
54,642
804,912

96,456 48,469
402,456 402,456
498,912 450,925
49,891 45,092
402,456
0

437,789
378,308
816,097
81,610
3,404,776

395,980
378,308
774,288
77,429
3,026,468

353,742
311,072
267,966
224,422
180,435
378,308
378,308
378,308
378,308
378,308
732,050
689,380
646,275
602,730
558,743
73,205
68,938
64,627
60,273
55,874
2,648,159 2,269,851 1,891,542 1,513,234 1,134,925

136,003 91,122
378,308 378,308
514,311 469,430
51,431 46,943
756,617 378,308

2,012,373
2,138,128
1,792,670
2,783,347
3,062,289
2,774,826
4,795,721
5,200,416
4,567,496
479,572
520,042
456,750
14,693,228 15,414,024 12,639,198

1,477,304
2,565,937
4,043,242
404,324
10,073,261

4,340,356
1,182,858
5,523,214.56
400,643.77

1,650,984
401,557

1,068,856
272,331

680,139
186,148

1,183,277
913,400
669,963
456,611
278,390 139,591
2,336,160 2,090,299 1,817,393 1,506,280 1,164,056 780,764
3,519,438 3,003,699 2,487,356 1,962,891 1,442,446 920,355
351,944
300,370
248,736
196,289
144,245 92,036
7,737,100 5,646,801 3,829,408 2,323,128 1,159,073 378,308

420,653
125,115

250,731
82,452

142,006
52,722

74,733
32,126

35,183
18,229

13,622
8,981

12.10%
AO 20

45,789
378,308
424,097
42,410
0

10
45,789
378,308
424,097
42,410
0

3,450
3,196

MODELO CAPM
TMAR
Beta
L
1-L
Riesgo Pas
rf
rm
rd
t
1-t
rf
Prima/Riesgo
re
rk

1.84 beta emergente

0.4
0.6
0.0616
28-Sep-07
0.04098
0.14559
0.13
0.25
0.75
0.10258
0.10
0.2951
0.2160

30%

REDUCCION POR EFICIENCIA

FECHA

ENE
FEB
MAR
ABR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AGO
SEP
OCT
NOV
DIC
AO 1
AO 2
AO 3
AO 4
AO 5
AO 6
AO 7
AO 8
AO 9
AO 10

SALDO CARTERA

VIGENTE

6.00%

VENCIDO

MOROSIDAD

TASA INTERES
OPERACIN

180,285
329,008
461,444
657,847
772,440
840,951
985,954
1,103,635
1,274,342
1,428,510
1,588,301
1,834,783

170,490
309,162
440,203
629,414
745,147
819,038
952,149
1,057,011
1,222,650
1,393,620
1,548,480
1,811,996

9,795
19,846
21,240
28,433
27,293
21,913
33,804
46,624
51,693
34,891
39,821
22,787

5.43%
6.03%
4.60%
4.32%
3.53%
2.61%
3.43%
4.22%
4.06%
2.44%
2.51%
1.24%

14.87%
14.87%
14.87%
13.83%
13.83%
13.83%
14.89%
14.89%
14.89%
14.85%
14.85%
14.85%

1,834,783
3,536,835
5,238,887
6,872,006
8,529,711
10,296,578
12,063,446
13,898,758
15,542,425
16,542,162

1,811,996
3,439,218
5,102,969
6,704,416
8,334,175
10,074,701
11,819,092
13,634,120
15,264,247
16,263,855

22,787
97,617
135,918
167,590
195,536
221,878
244,354
264,638
278,178
278,307

1.24%
2.76%
2.59%
2.44%
2.29%
2.15%
2.03%
1.90%
1.79%
1.68%

14.85%
15.22%
15.60%
15.99%
16.39%
16.80%
17.22%
17.65%
18.09%
18.55%

MORA(10%
TASA
INTERES)

MORA

1.36%
1.36%
1.36%
1.27%
1.27%
1.27%
1.36%
1.36%
1.36%
1.36%
1.36%
1.36%

134
271
290
360
346
278
461
636
705
475
542
310

16.34%
16.74%
17.16%
17.59%
18.03%
18.48%
18.94%
19.42%
19.90%
20.40%

4,808
16,344
23,326
29,481
35,257
41,006
46,289
51,385
55,365
56,775