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ANALISIS DE MERCADO
ESTIMACION DE LA DEMANDA POTENCIAL.
MODELO EL DE LA TENDENCIA HISTRICA DEL CONSUMO APARENTE
PARA EL CULTIVO DE CACAHUATE
Datos
Cuadro : Datos de produccin, importaciones y exportaciones de cacahuate con cascara
ao
produccin
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
142216000
119520000
74643000
91616000
98940000
72853000
68242000
82809000
80735000
85502000
81485000
importaciones
Kg
7660000
17709000
18755000
20241000
21812000
22329000
20253000
19061000
17092000
9455000
15140000
exportacion
es
C.A (ton)
3235000
3000000
58000
98000
13000
25000
219000
1060000
785000
662000
792000
146641
134229
93340
111759
120739
95157
88276
100810
97042
94295
95833
Fuente: FAOSTAT
Nota: los datos de los aos 2002, 2003, 2005 y 2006 fueron eliminados ya que en
la grafica de consumo aparente vs tiempo, los datos se salan de la tendencia y al
insertar una lnea de tendencia, esta daba valores de R2 menor que 0.8.
modelo
LINEAL
LOGARITMICA
POLINOMICA
A'
B
R2
-4930.89
10000344.6
-9887960.35
75295997.2
480.37 -1931226.48 1941110509
Modelo Y = A + B*X
Y = consumo aparente (t)
A = ordenada al origen
0.9
0.9
0.95
B = Pendiente
X = tiempo (aos)
Cuadro : demanda potencial estimada con los datos del cuadro 2
AO
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
LINEAL
LOGARITMICO
89255.74
89258.48313
79393.96
79424.60827
74463.07
74511.33595
69532.18
69600.50379
64601.29
64692.10937
59670.4
59786.15028
54739.51
54882.62409
49808.62
49981.5284
44877.73
45082.8608
39946.84
40186.61888
35015.95
35292.80025
30085.06
30401.4025
25154.17
25512.42324
20223.28
20625.86008
15292.39
15741.71064
DP
POLINOMICO
88121.4
89764.72
92027.49
95251
99435.25
104580.24
110685.97
117752.44
125779.65
134767.6
144716.29
155625.72
167495.89
180326.8
194118.45
PROMEDIO
89257.11156
79409.28414
74487.20297
69566.34189
64646.69969
59728.27514
54811.06705
49895.0742
44980.2954
40066.72944
35154.37512
30243.23125
25333.29662
20424.57004
15517.05032
ao
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
PIB
(miles de
PIB
millones
Poblacin IDP
CA
(dlares)
de
dlares)
9.15E+1 9748341 9386.212
915
146641
1
2
29
9.20E+1 9841986 9347.706
920
134229
1
2.3
64
9.00E+1 9990517 9008.542
900
1
4.9
36
93340
9.41E+1 1013904 9282.922
941.2
1
87
13
111759
1.01E+1 1028758 9778.781
1006
2
00
79
120739
1.06E+1 1032633 10303.74
1064
2
88
87
95157
1.15E+1 1058464 10855.35
1149
2
25
01
88276
1.35E+1 1073317 12605.77
1353
2
38
74
100810
1.56E+1 1088170 14363.55
1563
2
50
79
97042
1.46E+1 1103023 13263.54
1463
94295
2
63
18
1.57E+1 1123365 13949.15
1567
95833
2
38
7
Figura : modelo para obtener la Dp en funcin del ingreso disponible per cpita
A'
lineal
-8.82
exponenc 0.000076
ial
4
logartmi
co
102706.8
Polinomic
o
0.00249
4559544
potencial
19
-67.057
B
217039.2
9
274178.8
04
1074253.
86
546500.6
2
-0.8887
R2
0.87
0.88
0.88
0.93
0.91
Es necesario calcular el IDP para aos posteriores para eso se tiene que generar
modelos para calcular IDP en funcin del tiempo.
LINEAL
POLINOMICO
LOGARITMICO
579.8
36.56584
1162613.26
-146085.793
-1151369.89
145917117
-8828684.17
0.88
0.91
0.88
A
A'
B
R2
AOS
2012
2013
2014
2015
LINEAL
15187.
71
15767.
51
16347.
31
16927.
POLINOMI LOGARITMI
CO
CO
16286.977 15180.653
82
3
17378.690 15758.349
8
3
18543.535 16335.758
46
5
19781.511 16912.881
PROMEDIO
15184.181
64
15762.929
66
16341.534
23
16919.995
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
11
17506.
91
18086.
71
18666.
51
19246.
31
19826.
11
20405.
91
20985.
71
21565.
51
8
21092.619
82
22476.859
52
23934.230
9
25464.733
96
27068.368
7
28745.135
12
30495.033
22
32318.063
17489.717
1
18066.267
2
18642.531
6
19218.510
4
19794.204
20369.612
7
20944.736
8
21519.576
5
48
17498.313
56
18076.488
61
18654.520
78
19232.410
2
19810.157
01
20387.761
36
20965.223
39
21542.543
24
ESTIMACION DE DP
AO IDP
EXPONENCI LOGARITMI
S
(PROMEDIO)
LINEAL
AL
CO
201
83114.807 874674.60 85391.815
2
15184.1816
91
8
58
201
78010.250
81549.887
3
15762.9297
37
914217.3
48
201
72906.958 955537.18 77847.408
4
16341.5342
11
3
04
201
67804.929 998713.66 74274.638
5
16919.9955
86
7
2
201
62704.164 1043829.6 70822.824
6
17498.3136
39
9
79
201
57604.660 1090971.8 67484.071
7
18076.4886
43
6
8
201
52506.416 1140230.6 64251.231
8
18654.5208
74
6
95
201
47409.432 1191700.5 61117.814
9
19232.4102
07
5
96
202
42313.705 1245480.2 58077.909
0
19810.157
17
3
41
202
37219.234 1301672.7 55126.115
1
20387.7614
79
3
87
202
32126.019 1360385.6 52257.489
2
20965.2234
69
8
43
202
27034.058 1421731.4 49467.490
3
21542.5432
63
9
1
POLINOMI
CO
102929.02
1
108759.78
2
116258.13
2
125422.83
2
136252.64
5
148746.33
7
162902.67
4
178720.42
6
196198.36
3
215335.25
8
236129.88
6
258581.02
4
PETENCIA
87683.70
66
84816.72
17
82142.53
33
79641.99
55
77298.43
67
75097.27
06
73025.67
87
71072.34
87
69227.25
9
67481.49
84
65827.11
6
64256.99
45
PROMEDI
O
85396.77
67
81458.95
32
77632.29
98
73907.18
79
70275.14
2
66728.66
76
63261.10
91
59866.53
19
56539.62
45
53275.61
63
50070.20
84
46919.51
44
Estimacin de la Dp.
Cuadro : Dp estimada con los modelos generados
ao
p
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
A
B
R2
4774
4983.3
4407
4672.5
5504.7
5346.4
5680.9
6228.9
6847.2
7958.4
7628.42
C.A
146641
134229
93340
111759
120739
95157
88276
100810
97042
94295
95833
LINEAL
EXPONENCIAL
LOGARITMICO
POLINOMICO
-15.475 A
-0.000134 A
-98819 A
0.0077 A
209906.57 B
257725.415 B
975185 A'
-112.87 B
0.846 R2
0.869 R2
0.89 B
508700 R2
R2
0.99
POTENCIA
190513841
-0.853
0.91
MODELO
LINEAL
A'
334.38
POLINOMIC
O
38.333
LOGARITMI
CO
670286.5
1
R2
-664616
153379.9
5
15343361
6
5090634.0
9
0.84
0.93
0.85
TIEMPO
2011
2012
2013
2014
PRECIO
POLINOMIC LOGARITMI
O
CO
PROMEDI
LINEAL
O
7822.1
7823.473
8
9826.873 7824.7672
6
8156.5
8157.277
6 10660.582 8157.9944
2
8490.9
8490.998
4 11570.957 8491.05603
02
8825.3 12557.998 8823.95224 8824.636
2
2015 9159.7
9494.0
2016
8
9828.4
2017
6
10162.
2018
84
10497.
2019
22
10831.
2020
6
11165.
2021
98
11500.
2022
36
11834.
2023
74
13621.705 9156.68321
14762.078 9489.24908
15979.117 9821.65004
17272.822 10153.8862
18643.193 10485.9578
20090.23
10817.865
21613.933 11149.6079
23214.302 11481.1867
24891.337 11812.6015
12
9158.191
6
9491.664
54
9825.055
02
10158.36
31
10491.58
89
10824.73
25
11157.79
39
11490.77
33
11823.67
08
Cuadro : Dp estimada en funcin del precio con los diferentes modelos generados
precio promedio
7824.7672
8157.9944
8491.05603
8823.95224
9156.68321
9489.24908
9821.65004
10153.8862
10485.9578
10817.865
11149.6079
11481.1867
11812.6015
estimacin
de la Dp
LINEAL
POLINOMICO
LOGARITMICO
exponencial
potencia
promedio
88818.297
6
96966.2855
89267.7968
699729.716
90948.4719
89678.1887
83661.606
6
100364.291
85146.6126
699725.81
87769.9578
85526.059
78507.477
9
105469.356
81192.3681
699722.063
84824.6734
81508.1732
73355.909
112278.936
77392.136
699718.461
82087.2801
77611.7751
68206.897
4
120790.491
73734.4349
699714.995
79536.0203
73825.7842
63060.440
5
131001.487
70209.0212
699711.654
77152.1027
70140.5215
57916.535
7
142909.393
66806.7172
699708.43
74919.2104
66547.4878
52775.180
6
156511.684
63519.2684
699705.314
72823.104
63039.1843
47636.372
6
171805.839
60339.2235
699702.301
70851.299
59608.965
42500.109
2
188789.342
57259.8336
699699.383
68992.8021
56250.915
37366.387
8
207459.68
54274.9665
699696.554
67237.8934
52959.7492
32235.206
1
227814.346
51379.0338
699693.81
65577.946
49730.7286
27106.561
3
249850.838
48566.9284
699691.145
64005.276
46559.5886
producci importacio
n
nes
ao
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
142216
119520
74643
91616
98940
72853
68242
82809
80735
85502
81485
(t)
7660
17709
18755
20241
21812
22329
20253
19061
17092
9455
15140
exportacion
es
poblacin
C.A
(millones de
habitantes)
(t)
3235
97.483412 146641
3000
98.4198623 134229
58
99.9051749
93340
98
101.390487 111759
13
102.8758 120739
25
103.263388
95157
219
105.846425
88276
1060
107.331738 100810
785
108.81705
97042
662
110.302363
94295
792
112.336538
95833
tasa de
crecimien
to
1,53
1,5
1,47
1,43
1,18
1,17
1,16
1,15
1,14
1,13
1,12
estimacin de Dp
MODELO
S
lineal
exponenc
ial
logartmi
co
Polinomic
o
potencial
A
-3282.4
-0.0284
344881.1
3
A'
B
456888
2187349.
29
R2
0.877
0.9
1716872.
02
0.89
53962.7 3103726.
241.99
6
48
1.1741E+
11
-2.982
0.95
0.9
modelos
lineal
logartmi
co
polinomic
o
estimacin de
poblacin
a
a'
1.4853
r2
-2873.7
0.99
2977.9
-22538
0.03198
- 125706.4
5 126.7745
26
0.99
0.99
ao
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
estimacin de la poblacin
logartmic Polinomic
lineal
o
o
113.23 113.0610 114.1169
83
08
85
114.72 114.5414 116.0181
36
46
4
116.20 116.0211 117.9832
89
47
65
117.69 117.5001 120.0123
42
14
6
119.17 118.9783 122.1054
95
47
25
120.66 120.4558 124.2624
48
47
6
122.15 121.9326 126.4834
01
13
65
123.63 123.4086 128.7684
54
48
4
125.12 124.8839 131.1173
07
52
85
126.60 126.3585
6
25 133.5303
128.09 127.8323 136.0071
13
68
85
129.57 129.3054 138.5480
66
82
4
131.06 130.7778 141.1528
19
67
65
promedio
113.1496
54
114.6325
23
116.1150
24
117.5971
57
119.0789
24
120.5603
23
122.0413
57
123.5220
24
125.0023
26
126.4822
62
127.9618
34
129.4410
41
130.9198
84
Estimacin de la Dp.
Cuadro : Dp estimada en funcin de la poblacin
poblacin
113.1496
54
114.6325
23
116.1150
24
117.5971
57
119.0789
24
estimacin de la Dp
exponenc
lineal
ial
85485.57 87969.97
57
35
80618.20 84342.17
73
81
75752.04 80864.83
62
41
70887.09 77531.66
12
67
66023.34 74336.66
11
4
logartmi
co
86028.71
85
81538.28
22
77106.65
43
72732.32
75
68413.85
17
Polinomic
o
96019.12
52
97736.65
63
100517.5
89
104361.1
33
109266.4
98
potencial
88249.04
98
84888.32
44
81697.11
43
78664.83
64
75781.69
2
promedio
86933.32
94
82846.74
8
78855.16
22
74953.98
04
71138.88
72
120.5603
23
122.0413
57
123.5220
24
125.0023
26
126.4822
62
127.9618
34
129.4410
41
130.9198
84
61160.79
47
56299.45
08
51439.30
83
46580.36
58
41722.62
24
36866.07
66
32010.72
75
27156.57
37
71274.06
65
68338.35
6
65524.24
57
62826.67
02
60240.77
64
57761.91
45
55385.62
92
53107.65
2
64149.83
14
59938.92
24
55779.82
97
51671.30
54
47612.14
57
43601.18
94
39637.31
6
35719.44
33
115232.8
97
122259.5
42
130345.6
48
139490.4
3
149693.1
05
160952.8
91
173269.0
08
186640.6
76
73038.59
96
70427.13
42
67939.47
26
65568.34
41
63306.98
48
61149.09
76
59088.81
45
57120.66
29
67405.82
3
63750.96
58
60170.71
41
56661.67
14
53220.63
23
49844.56
95
46530.62
18
43276.08
3
Poblacin
(millones de
habitantes)
Ao
CP (Kg)
CA (t)
2000
97483412
1.50426618
2
146641
2001
98419862
1.36384055
9
134229
2004
102875800
1.17363850
3
120739
2007
107331738
0.93923756
4
100810
2008
108817050
0.89179039
1
97042
2009
110302363
0.85487742
94295
4
2010
112336538
0.85308842
3
95833
2011
113149654
0.76597759
4
86670
2012
114632523
0.72190140
3
82753
2013
116115024
0.68036146
2
79000
2014
117597157
0.64121182
9
75405
2015
119078924
0.60431496
71961
2016
120560323
0.56954122
5
68664
2017
122041357
0.53676845
5
65508
2018
123522024
0.50588150
8
62488
2019
125002326
0.47677187
1
59598
2020
126482262
0.44933727
2
56833
2021
127961834
0.42348132
6
54189
2022
129441041
0.39911319
3
51662
2023
130919884
0.37614726
1
49245
Los modelos generados para la obtencin del consumo perca pita son los
siguientes:
Exponencial
Lineal
y = 4.40247E+51e-0.05926435x
y = -0.06662148x +
134.6970998
R = 0.984741794
R = 0.974837278
logartmico
Polinomico
y = -133.5792478ln(x) +
1016.77717
y = 0.003779048x2 - 15.21976163x +
15324.82462
R = 0.974995434
R = 0.992870748
Aunque los 4 modelos presentan una relacin entre el CP y el tiempo muy buena
solo el modelo exponencial sigue la tendencia como lo muestra la siguiente
grafica:
ao
Exponenci
al
lineal
logartmica
Polinomico
2011
0.7659775
94
0.7213035
2
0.72166399
9
0.811358878
2012
0.7219014
03
0.6546820
4
0.65525621
8
0.794707352
2013
0.6803614
62
0.5880605
6
0.58888143
5
0.785613922
2014
0.6412118
29
0.5214390
8
0.52253961
7
0.784078588
2015
0.6043149
6
0.4548176
0.45623073
1
0.79010135
2016
0.5695412
25
0.3881961
2
0.38995474
5
0.803682208
2017
0.5367684
55
0.3215746
4
0.32371162
6
0.824821162
2018
0.5058815
08
0.2549531
6
0.25750134
0.853518212
2019
0.4767718
71
0.1883316
8
0.19132385
7
0.889773358
2020
0.4493372
72
0.1217102
0.12517914
2
0.9335866
2021
0.4234813
26
0.0550887
2
0.05906716
5
0.984957938
2022
0.3991131
93
0.0115327
6
0.00701210
8
1.043887372
2023
0.3761472
61
0.0781542
4
0.07305870
9
1.110374902
Por tanto solo los datos que arrojo este modelo son utilizados para calcular el CA
al multiplicarlos por los datos de la poblacin.
ao
C.A
2000
4774
146641
2001
4983.3
134229
2004
5504.7
120739
2007
6228.9
100810
2008
6847.2
97042
2009
7958.4
94295
2010
7628.42
95833
Lineal
y = 2.77797E40e0.04976566x
y = 304.8334146x 605090.1983
R = 0.94661045
R = 0.915696882
Logartmico
Polinomico
y = 611085.813ln(x) 4640227.597
y = 24.37301072x2 - 97425.51508x +
97363808.77
R = 0.915486653
R = 0.949352373
A partir de los modelos obtenidos se estima el precio medio rural del cacahuate de
los siguientes aos.
Ao
Exponencia
l
Lineal
Logartmico
Polinomico
2011 8079.28764
9
7929.79846
1
7927.825072
8502.430097
2012 8491.53144
6
8234.63187
5
8231.621157
9129.537144
2013 8924.80988
8
8539.46529
8535.266288
9805.390212
2014 9380.19626
3
8844.29870
4
8838.760614
10529.9893
2015 9858.81862
4
9149.13211
9
9142.104285
11303.33441
2016 10361.8625
9453.96553
9445.297451
12125.42554
2017 10890.5742
4
9758.79894
8
9748.340261
12996.2627
2018 11446.2632
9
10063.6323
6
10051.23286
13915.84587
2019 12030.3062
4
10368.4657
8
10353.97541
14884.17507
2020 12644.1498
6
10673.2991
9
10656.56804
15901.25029
2021 13289.3147
10978.1326
1
10959.01092
16967.07153
2022 13967.3989
3
11282.9660
2
11261.30418
18081.63879
2023 14680.0822
6
11587.7994
4
11563.44797
19244.95207
Aunque todos los modelos se ajustan al comportamiento del PMR solo el modelo
exponencial mantiene la tendencia (como lo muestra la grafica) por eso
nicamente ocupamos este para predecir el Precio medio rural.
lineal
logartmico
y = 257725.4155e-
y = -15.47527016x +
209905.572
y = -98819.28762ln(x)
+ 975184.6724
0.000133971x
R = 0.86988794
R = 0.846701951
R = 0.890127776
Polinomico
potencial
y = 0.00766796x2 - 112.8716289x +
508719.5487
y = 190513840.6x-0.853252849
R = 0.990233764
PMR
exponenci
al
lineal
R = 0.909724333
logartmi
co
Polinomico
potencial
prome
dio
8079.3 87313.447
74
84876.412
93
86101.71
28
97322.4286
1
88297.6870
5
87237.
6159
8491.5 82621.982
56
78496.828
8
81183.90
57
103173.301
4
84626.8186
7
82810.
9023
8924.8 77962.584
96
71791.727
85
76266.09
87
112131.844
4
81108.5621
5
78445.
7486
9380.2 73348.383
31
64744.500
67
71348.29
16
124650.609
8
77736.5728
4
74144.
4159
9858.8 68792.790
3
57337.690
34
66430.48
45
141236.007
9
74504.7698
7
69909.
3482
10361.9 64309.389
4
49552.949
21
61512.67
74
162454.274
71407.3251
5
65743.
1307
10890.6 59911.808
09
41370.993
46
56594.87
04
188938.078
9
68438.6529
1
61648.
4438
11446.3 55613.579
32771.555
29
51677.06
33
221393.846
8
65593.3995
9
57628.
014
12030.3 51427.990
13
23733.332
76
46759.25
62
260609.859
2
62866.4341
9
53684.
5602
12644.1 47367.926
17
14233.937
41841.44
92
307465.225
7
60252.8390
5
49820.
7381
13289.3 43445.703
25
4249.8367
59
36923.64
21
362939.815
1
57747.9009
4
46039.
0821
13967.4 39672.899
99
6243.6999
07
32005.83
5
428125.246
3
55347.1025
6
42341.
9459
14680.1
17272.666
87
27088.02
8
504237.053
6
53046.1144
4
38731.
4435
36060.188
22
Por tanto la oferta potencial ser para los siguientes aos la que se muestra a
continuacin:
Ao
PMR
($/t)
Oferta p
(t)
2011
8079.3
87238
2012
8491.5
82811
2013
8924.8
78446
2014
9380.2
74144
2015
9858.8
69909
2016
10361.9
65743
2017
10890.6
61648
2018
11446.3
57628
2019
12030.3
53685
2020
12644.1
49821
2021
13289.3
46039
2022
13967.4
42342
2023
14680.1
38731
Ao
Dp
Op
DPI
2011
86670.09
97
87238
-568
2012
82753.4
82811
-58
2013
79000.2
78446
554
2014
75404.7
74144
1260
2015
71961.2
69909
2052
2016
68664.1
65743
2921
2017
65508.0
61648
3860
2018
62487.5
57628
4859
2019
59597.6
53685
5913
2020
56833.2
49821
7012
2021
54189.4
46039
8150
2022
51661.6
42342
9320
2023
49245.2
38731
10514