Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD Y
DECISIONES DE VALOR
ESPERADO FORMALIZADOS
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 1
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 2
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18.1
DETERMINACIÓN DE LA
SENSIBILIDAD A LAS VARIACIONES
DE LOS PARÁMETROS
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 3
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18.1 SENSIBILIDAD
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 4
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 5
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Ingeniería económica:
Requiere ciertos parámetros para realizar el
análisis:
Se fijan los valores de los parámetros de
entrada y luego se determina la variable de
salida especificada.
Si uno o varios parámetros de entrada se
modifican, la variable de salida cambiará.
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 6
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 7
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 8
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18.1 SENSIBILIDAD
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 9
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 11
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 12
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 13
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 14
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 15
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 16
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 18
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 19
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 20
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 21
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18.2
ANÁLISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD
FORMALIZADO USANDO TRES
ESTIMACIONES
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 22
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 23
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18.3
VARIABILIDAD ECONÓMICA Y VALOR
ESPERADO
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 25
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 26
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18.3 Dificultades
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 28
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Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 29
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Xi el valor de la variable X,
m = los máximos valores que X puede asumir,
P(X i ) = la probabilidad de que ocurra X i.
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 30
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P(X ) 1.0
i=1
i
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 32
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18.4
CÁLCULOS DE VALOR ESPERADO
PARA ALTERNATIVAS
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 33
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Dos aplicaciones de EV
1. La preparación de información
numérica a fin de proporcionar un
análisis de ingeniería económica más
completo;
2. La evaluación de la viabilidad
esperada de una alternativa
totalmente formulada.
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 34
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18.5
EVALUACIÓN DE ALTERNATIVAS POR
ETAPAS USANDO UN ÁRBOL DE
DECISIONES
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 35
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Alto 20.0% 0
0 0
Mercado FALSO Al azar
0
Bajo 80.0% 0
0 0
Árbol ejemplo D1
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 42
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18 Resumen
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 45
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18 Resumen
Blank & Tarquin: 5th edition. Ch.18 Authored by Dr. Don Smith, Texas A&M University 46
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18 Resumen
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