colegio el porotazo

bachillerato tecnico infot¡rmatico

Srta. Guadalupe Tello Rojas

Codigo Producto Laboratorio

100 EMETAN DIGEST comp. sobres x 4 Indufar

1 37
METODOS DE PRONOSTICOS
2 176 MEDIDAS DEL ERROR
3 397

4 121 PROMEDIO MOVIL

PROMEDIO MOVIL SUAVIZADO SUAVIZADO PROMEDIO MOVIL PROMEDIO MOVIL SUAVIZADO SUAVIZADO
PONDERADO METODO WINTERS REGRESION LINEAL METODO WINTERS REGRESION LINEAL
(3 MESES) EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE EXPONENCIAL DOBLE (3 MESES) PONDERADO (3MESES) EXPONENCIAL SIMPLE EXPONENCIAL DOBLE
5 0 (3MESES)
2012

6 92
7 75 1er Fact 70% 70%
8 210 2do Fact 20% 20%
9 25 3er Fact 10% 10%
10 0 Coef Ajuste1 10%
11 33 Coef Ajuste2
REAL 2014
12 73 PRONOSTICO 2012
1 75 60 70 71 75 202 165 10955.11 8949.16 8862.34 8062.54 1336.00
2 198 115 161 165 172 190 196 6507.11 1232.01 985.33 552.64 38.45
3 409 227 333 341 343 178 200 747.11 17795.56 19869.72 20360.91 481.90
4 188 265 233 229 196 166 160 11025.00 5358.24 4716.94 1302.01 39.64
5 100 232 149 144 129 155 89 20544.44 3540.25 2986.62 1582.71 4296.05
6 25 104 56 53 50 143 99 28.44 1823.29 2100.39 2388.77 1917.79
2013

7 120 82 99 101 112 131 111 860.44 144.00 98.01 2.15 401.63
8 103 83 99 99 100 119 90 53.78 73.96 81.72 97.52 857.85
9 145 123 134 135 138 108 155 1045.44 436.81 392.44 279.73 2252.71
10 150 133 144 145 145 96 178 2055.11 1135.69 1097.60 1087.35 6759.22
11 130 142 136 135 134 84 180 1469.44 1980.25 2029.50 2149.87 9209.51
12 0 93 41 37 32 72 121 765.44 6400.00 7072.81 7857.35 2373.44
TOTAL 1,659 1,655 1,654 1,627 1,643 1744 4671.407 4072.435 4191.119 3810.295 2497.015
68.348 63.816 64.739 61.728 49.970
ECM 68.348 63.816 64.739 61.728 49.970 47.03% 43.91% 44.55% 42.47% 34.38%
%ECM 47.03% 43.91% 44.55% 42.47% 34.38%
%DAC -4.85% -5.09% -5.16% -6.71% -5.79%
MAPE #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
0.0485474006116 0.0509174311927 0.0516169724771 0.0670775993884 0.0579128440367