Hallar el pronóstico para el

mes de abril de 2020,

utilizando el Método At
Meses Demanda
Promedio Móvil Simple, para Jan-19 107
n=3 y n=4 Feb-19 127
Mar-19 100
Apr-19 121
May-19 109
Jun-19 117
Jul-19 120
Aug-19 101
Sep-19 123
Oct-19 114
Nov-19 100
Dec-19 125
Jan-20 108
Feb-20 127
Mar-20 110
n=3 n=4
PRONOSTICO ERROR ERROR ABS PRONOSTICO ERROR

111.33 9.67 9.67

116.00 -7.00 7.00 113.75 -4.75
110.00 7.00 7.00 114.25 2.75
115.67 4.33 4.33 111.75 8.25
115.33 -14.33 14.33 116.75 -15.75
112.67 10.33 10.33 111.75 11.25
114.67 -0.67 0.67 115.25 -1.25
112.67 -12.67 12.67 114.5 -14.5
112.33 12.67 12.67 109.5 15.5
113.00 -5.00 5.00 115.5 -7.5
111.00 16.00 16.00 111.75 15.25
120.00 -10.00 10.00 115 -5
DMA 9.14 DMA

Apr-20 115
ERROR ABS

4.75
2.75
8.25
15.75
11.25
1.25
14.5
15.5
7.5
15.25
5
9.25
Hallar el pronóstico para el w3=
mes de abril de 2020, w2=
utilizando el Método w1=
Promedio Móvil Ponderado, Meses
At n=3
Demanda PRONOSTICO
para n=3 (w1=0.5; w2=0.3; Jan-19 107
w3=0.2) y n=4 (determine Feb-19 127
sus pesos) Mar-19 100
Apr-19 121 109.5
May-19 109 115.9
Jun-19 117 110.8
Jul-19 120 115.4
Aug-19 101 116.9
Sep-19 123 109.9
Oct-19 114 115.8
Nov-19 100 114.1
Dec-19 125 108.8
Jan-20 108 115.3
Feb-20 127 111.5
Mar-20 110 120.9

Apr-20
 w4= 0.1
0.2 w3= 0.2
0.3 w2= 0.3
0.5 w1= 0.4
n=4
ERROR ERROR ABS
PRONOSTICO ERROR ERROR ABS MESES
1
2
3
11.5 11.5
-6.9 6.9 114.5 -5.5 5.5
6.2 6.2 112.6 4.4 4.4
4.6 4.6 113.7 6.3 6.3 MESES
-15.9 15.9 117 -16 16 1
13.1 13.1 110.7 12.3 12.3 2
-1.8 1.8 115.2 -1.2 1.2 3
-14.1 14.1 114.7 -14.7 14.7 4
16.2 16.2 108.9 16.1 16.1
-7.3 7.3 115.1 -7.1 7.1
15.5 15.5 112.1 14.9 14.9
-10.9 10.9 118.2 -8.2 8.2
DMA 10.33 DMA 9.7

116.2
ANALISIS VALORES
MES 3 1 0.2
MES 2 2 0.3
MES 1 3 0.5
TOTAL 6

ANALISIS VALORES
MES 4 1 0.1
MES 3 2 0.2
MES 2 3 0.3
MES 1 4 0.4
TOTAL 10
Hallar el pronóstico para el
mes de abril de 2020,
utilizando el Método At
Meses Demanda
Suavizado Exponencial, para Jan-19 107
α=0.1 y α=0.3 Feb-19 127
Mar-19 100
Apr-19 121
May-19 109
Jun-19 117
Jul-19 120
Aug-19 101
Sep-19 123
Oct-19 114
Nov-19 100
Dec-19 125
Jan-20 108
Feb-20 127
Mar-20 110
 alfa 0.1 alfa 0.3
PRONOSTICO ERROR ERROR ABS PRONOSTICO ERROR ERROR ABS
107 0 0 107 0 0
107 20 20 107 20 20
109 -9 9 113 -13 13
108.1 12.9 12.9 109.1 11.9 11.9
109.39 -0.39 0.39 112.67 -3.67 3.67
109.35 7.65 7.65 111.57 5.43 5.431
110.12 9.88 9.88 113.20 6.80 6.8017
111.10 -10.10 10.10 115.24 -14.24 14.23881
110.09 12.91 12.91 110.97 12.03 12.032833
111.38 2.62 2.62 114.58 -0.58 0.5770169
111.65 -11.65 11.65 114.40 -14.40 14.40391183
110.48 14.52 14.52 110.08 14.92 14.917261719
111.93 -3.93 3.93 114.56 -6.56 6.5579167967
111.54 15.46 15.46 112.59 14.41 14.409458242
113.09 -3.09 3.09 116.91 -6.91 6.9133792304
DMA 8.9395294433 DMA 9.6568858479

Apr-20 109.7
Hallar el pronóstico para el 1-Beta
Beta
mes de abril de 2020, 1-Alfa
utilizando el Método Alfa
Suavizado Exponencial con Pronóstico
Ajuste de Tendencia o el Meses Demanda
Alisado
Método de Holt, para α=0.1, Jan-19 107 100
β=0.3 y α=0.4, β=0.3, Feb-19 127 105.2
considerando para el primer Mar-19
Apr-19
100
121
111.93
115.75
periodo un pronóstico May-19 109 120.81
alisado de 100 y una Jun-19 117 124.16
tendencia alisada de 5. Jul-19 120 127.53
Aug-19 101 130.55
Sep-19 123 131.05
Oct-19 114 132.79
Nov-19 100 133.17
Dec-19 125 131.53
Jan-20 108 131.62
Feb-20 127 129.79
Mar-20 110 129.40
 0.7 1-Beta 0.7
0.3 Beta 0.3
0.9 1-Alfa 0.6
0.1 Alfa 0.4

Tendencia Pronóstico Tendencia

Pronóstico Error Error ABS Pronóstico
Alisada Alisado Alisada

5 105 2 2 100 5 105

5.06 110.26 16.74 16.74 105.8 5.24 111.04
5.56 117.50 -17.50 17.50 117.42 7.155 124.58
5.04 120.78 0.22 0.22 114.75 4.206 118.95
5.04 125.85 -16.85 16.85 119.77 4.451 124.22
4.54 128.70 -11.70 11.70 118.13 2.625 120.76
4.19 131.72 -11.72 11.72 119.26 2.174 121.43
3.84 134.38 -33.38 33.38 120.86 2.002 122.86
2.83 133.88 -10.88 10.88 114.12 -0.621 113.49
2.51 135.30 -21.30 21.30 117.30 0.520 117.82
1.87 135.04 -35.04 35.04 116.29 0.062 116.35
0.82 132.35 -7.35 7.35 109.81 -1.901 107.91
0.60 132.21 -24.21 24.21 114.75 0.150 114.90
-0.13 129.66 -2.66 2.66 112.14 -0.677 111.46
-0.21 129.19 -19.19 19.19 117.68 1.187 118.86
DMA 15.382632

Pronóstic Tendencia
Pronóstico
o Alisado Alisada

Apr-20 115 0 115

Error Error ABS

2 2
15.96 15.96
-24.58 24.58
2.05 2.05
-15.22 15.22
-3.76 3.76
-1.43 1.43
-21.86 21.86
9.51 9.51
-3.82 3.82
-16.35 16.35
17.09 17.09
-6.90 6.90
15.54 15.54
-8.86 8.86
DMA 10.994538
Con la siguiente Serie de Tiempos,
aplicar el Promedio Móvil Simple y
Promedio Móvil ponderado para n=3
y n=4; y el Suavizado Exponencial Meses Demanda
para α=0.1 y α=0.3, determinando Jan-19
Feb-19
108
119
sus Medidas de Desviación o Error Mar-19 118
correspondientes (DAM, ECM, Apr-19 125
EPAM) y según el modelo de mejor May-19 110
desempeño, PROYECTAR la Demanda Jun-19
Jul-19
130
128
para Abril de 2020. Aug-19 122
Sep-19 130
Oct-19 119
Nov-19 123
Dec-19 124
Jan-20 114
Feb-20 122
Mar-20 132
Apr-20
 w4= 0.1
w3= 0.2
n=3 n=4 w2= 0.3
PMS PMP w1= 0.4
Pronóstico Error Error ABS Error 2 EPAM Pronóstico Error Error ABS

115 10 10 100 8.00%

120.67 -10.67 10.67 113.78 9.70% 120 -10 10
117.67 12.33 12.33 152.11 9.49% 117 13 13
121.67 6.33 6.33 40.11 4.95% 121.8 6.2 6.2
122.67 -0.67 0.67 0.44 0.55% 124.7 -2.7 2.7
126.67 3.33 3.33 11.11 2.56% 124.2 5.8 5.8
126.67 -7.67 7.67 58.78 6.44% 127.2 -8.2 8.2
123.67 -0.67 0.67 0.44 0.54% 123.8 -0.8 0.8
124 0 0 0 0.00% 123.1 0.9 0.9
122 -8 8 64 7.02% 123.3 -9.3 9.3
120.33 1.67 1.67 2.78 1.37% 119.3 2.7 2.7
120 12 12 144 9.09% 120.1 11.9 11.9
122.66667 DAM ECM EPAM DAM
6.1111111 57.296296 4.98% 6.5
 0.1
ALFA
Error 2 EPAM Pronóstico Error Error ABS Error 2 EPAM
108 0 0 0 0.00%
108 11 11 121 9.24%
109.1 8.9 8.9 79.21 7.54%
109.99 15.01 15.01 225.30 12.01%
100 9.09% 111.49 -1.49 1.49 2.22 1.36%
169 10.00% 111.34 18.66 18.66 348.12 14.35%
38.44 4.84% 113.21 14.79 14.79 218.81 11.56%
7.29 2.21% 114.69 7.31 7.31 53.48 5.99%
33.64 4.46% 115.42 14.58 14.58 212.63 11.22%
67.24 6.89% 116.88 2.12 2.12 4.51 1.78%
0.64 0.65% 117.09 5.91 5.91 34.94 4.81%
0.81 0.73% 117.68 6.32 6.32 39.94 5.10%
86.49 8.16% 118.31 -4.31 4.31 18.59 3.78%
7.29 2.21% 117.88 4.12 4.12 16.97 3.38%
141.61 9.02% 118.29 13.71 13.71 187.89 10.38%
ECM EPAM DAM ECM EPAM
59.313636 5.30% 8.54931 104.24177 6.83%