Consolidado 1 - Evalu

Sección: NRC 11717 - NRC 11932

Asignatura: Administración de Operaciones
Docente: Ybnias Elí Grijalva Yauri

Fecha:

Tema:
PRONÓSTICOS

Empresa:

DESCOMPOSICION ADITIVA
DESCOMPOSICION MULTIPLICATIVA

INSTRUCCIONES:
Seleccionar su correspondiente Sección - NRC
Utilizar la series de tiempo presentada en la hoja "TableData1"
Hoja "BVN" Información general de la empresa cuyas cotizaciones de a
Hoja "BVN" la información ha sido obtenida de https://eikon.refinitiv.c
Hoja "DA" calcular el pronóstico con el metodo de descomposición adi
Hoja "DM" calcular el pronóstico con el metodo de descomposición mu
Hoja "Analisis" realizar el analisis comparativo de los métodos, determ
RECOMENDACIONES
Desarrollar cada caso en ORDEN y cuidando aplicar adecuadamente lo
Presentar el proceso de cálculo y sus resultados en cada hoja.
Respetar el orden y la estructura establecida en el presente excel, que
El UNICO MEDIO de presentación en a través del AULA VIRTUAL, evites
 Consolidado 1 - Evaluación Individual

IDENTIFICACION DEL ESTUDIANTE

RC 11932 Código 71482895
n de Operaciones Apellidos: Blancas Quispialaya
lva Yauri Nombres: Dayana Isabel

6/28/2021

RONÓSTICOS

POSICION ADITIVA
CION MULTIPLICATIVA

a en la hoja "TableData1"
de la empresa cuyas cotizaciones de acciones se esta tomando en cuenta para la serie de datos.
do obtenida de https://eikon.refinitiv.com.
con el metodo de descomposición aditiva y generar los graficos correspondientes.
o con el metodo de descomposición multiplicativa y generar los graficos correspondientes.
s comparativo de los métodos, determinando cual es el mas adecuado, sustente adecuadamente su respues

y cuidando aplicar adecuadamente los lineamientos de cada metodo.

y sus resultados en cada hoja.
a establecida en el presente excel, que es el único medio de desarrollo de la tarea.
n en a través del AULA VIRTUAL, evitese complicaciones y presente dentro del plazo establecido.
 NRC 11715 -
NRC 11716 -
NRC 11717 -
NRC
NRC

de datos.

damente su respuesta.
ablecido.
Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA (ADR)

Date BVN
Close
Jan-11 41.0000
Feb-11 46.6700
Mar-11 42.9700
Apr-11 41.6700
May-11 44.1200
Jun-11 37.9800
Jul-11 40.9400
Aug-11 46.8300
Sep-11 37.7400
Oct-11 40.9300 48.0000
Nov-11 39.1500
Dec-11 38.3400
43.0000
Jan-12 42.9000
Feb-12 40.1300
Mar-12 40.3100
38.0000
Apr-12 41.2700
May-12 39.1400
Jun-12 37.9800 33.0000
Jul-12 36.4200
Aug-12 34.6600
Sep-12 38.9600 28.0000
Oct-12 35.7600
BVN

Nov-12 32.7700
23.0000
Dec-12 35.9500
Jan-13 29.5900
Feb-13 25.6200 18.0000
Mar-13 25.9600
Apr-13 20.0200
May-13 17.9500 13.0000
Jun-13 14.7600
Jul-13 14.3000
Aug-13 12.6300 8.0000

Sep-13 11.7100
Oct-13 14.5000
3.0000
Nov-13 11.8000 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan
Dec-13 11.2200
Jan-14 12.4000
Feb-14 12.6000
Mar-14 12.5700
Apr-14 13.0000
May-14 10.6900
Jun-14 11.8100
 Jul-14 11.7100
Aug-14 14.5600
Sep-14 11.5800
Oct-14 9.2000
Nov-14 9.2500
Dec-14 9.5600
Jan-15 11.4200
Feb-15 11.5800
Mar-15 10.1300
Apr-15 11.1800
May-15 11.2000
Jun-15 10.3800
Jul-15 7.1200
Aug-15 6.3200
Sep-15 5.9600
Oct-15 6.4100
Nov-15 4.7400
Dec-15 4.2800
Jan-16 4.0000
Feb-16 5.2200
Mar-16 7.3600
Apr-16 10.1500
May-16 9.5600
Jun-16 11.9500
Jul-16 14.6500
Aug-16 12.3600
Sep-16 13.8400
Oct-16 13.2900
Nov-16 11.1700
Dec-16 11.2800
Jan-17 13.7900
Feb-17 12.3000
Mar-17 12.0400
Apr-17 12.0100
May-17 12.4400
Jun-17 11.5000
Jul-17 12.2400
Aug-17 13.4300
Sep-17 12.7900
Oct-17 13.7900
Nov-17 13.9900
Dec-17 14.0800
Jan-18 15.4300
Feb-18 15.5500
Mar-18 15.2300
Apr-18 15.9500
May-18 15.4700
Jun-18 13.6300
Jul-18 13.7400
Aug-18 12.5900
Sep-18 13.4100
Oct-18 13.8400
Nov-18 14.1400
Dec-18 16.2200
Jan-19 15.6500
Feb-19 16.6400
Mar-19 17.2800
Apr-19 16.2100
May-19 15.1700
Jun-19 16.6700
Jul-19 15.2400
Aug-19 15.2400
Sep-19 15.1800
Oct-19 15.3400
Nov-19 15.3700
Dec-19 15.1000
Jan-20 12.9300
Feb-20 11.1500
Mar-20 7.2900
Apr-20 7.4900
May-20 7.8500
Jun-20 9.1400
Jul-20 11.8600
Aug-20 14.0800
Sep-20 12.2200
Oct-20 12.2700
Nov-20 11.1000
Dec-20 12.1900
Jan-21 10.1800
Feb-21 11.0600
Mar-21 10.0300
Apr-21 9.7200
 Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA
(Análisis de datos del periodo Enero 20

11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16

Tiempo
naventura SAA (ADR)
odo Enero 2011- Abril 2021)

Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oc

Tiempo
 DESCOMPOCISIÓN ADITIVA
Lineas paralelas

l-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21

Descomposición aditiva

Forecasting Decomposition, additive

Enter
Enter past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area.
area. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the
time
time period
period numbers!
numbers!
4 seasons

Data
Period Demand (y) Time (x) Average Difference Seasonal
Jan-11 41 1 0.0549166667
Feb-11 46.67 2 -0.084375
Mar-11 42.97 3 43.0775 43.4675 -0.4975 -0.255166667
Apr-11 41.67 4 43.8575 42.77125 -1.10125 0.2559583333
May-11 44.12 5 41.685 41.43125 2.68875 0.0549166667
Jun-11 37.98 6 41.1775 41.8225 -3.8425 -0.084375
Jul-11 40.94 7 42.4675 41.67 -0.73 -0.255166667
Aug-11 46.83 8 40.8725 41.24125 5.58875 0.2559583333
Sep-11 37.74 9 41.61 41.38625 -3.64625 0.0549166667
Oct-11 40.93 10 41.1625 40.10125 0.82875 -0.084375
Nov-11 39.15 11 39.04 39.685 -0.535 -0.255166667
Dec-11 38.34 12 40.33 40.23 -1.89 0.2559583333
Jan-12 42.9 13 40.13 40.275 2.625 0.0549166667
Feb-12 40.13 14 40.42 40.78625 -0.65625 -0.084375
Mar-12 40.31 15 41.1525 40.6825 -0.3725 -0.255166667
Apr-12 41.27 16 40.2125 39.94375 1.32625 0.2559583333
May-12 39.14 17 39.675 39.18875 -0.04875 0.0549166667
Jun-12 37.98 18 38.7025 37.87625 0.10375 -0.084375
Jul-12 36.42 19 37.05 37.0275 -0.6075 -0.255166667
Aug-12 34.66 20 37.005 36.7275 -2.0675 0.2559583333
Sep-12 38.96 21 36.45 35.99375 2.96625 0.0549166667
Oct-12 35.76 22 35.5375 35.69875 0.06125 -0.084375
Nov-12 32.77 23 35.86 34.68875 -1.91875 -0.255166667
Dec-12 35.95 24 33.5175 32.25 3.7 0.2559583333
Jan-13 29.59 25 30.9825 30.13125 -0.54125 0.0549166667
Feb-13 25.62 26 29.28 27.28875 -1.66875 -0.084375
Mar-13 25.96 27 25.2975 23.8425 2.1175 -0.255166667
Apr-13 20.02 28 22.3875 21.03 -1.01 0.2559583333
May-13 17.95 29 19.6725 18.215 -0.265 0.0549166667
Jun-13 14.76 30 16.7575 15.83375 -1.07375 -0.084375
Jul-13 14.3 31 14.91 14.13 0.17 -0.255166667
Aug-13 12.63 32 13.35 13.3175 -0.6875 0.2559583333
Sep-13 11.71 33 13.285 12.9725 -1.2625 0.0549166667
Oct-13 14.5 34 12.66 12.48375 2.01625 -0.084375
Nov-13 11.8 35 12.3075 12.39375 -0.59375 -0.255166667
Dec-13 11.22 36 12.48 12.2425 -1.0225 0.2559583333
Jan-14 12.4 37 12.005 12.10125 0.29875 0.0549166667
Feb-14 12.6 38 12.1975 12.42 0.18 -0.084375
Mar-14 12.57 39 12.6425 12.42875 0.14125 -0.255166667
Apr-14 13 40 12.215 12.11625 0.88375 0.2559583333
May-14 10.69 41 12.0175 11.91 -1.22 0.0549166667
Jun-14 11.81 42 11.8025 11.9975 -0.1875 -0.084375
Jul-14 11.71 43 12.1925 12.30375 -0.59375 -0.255166667
Aug-14 14.56 44 12.415 12.08875 2.47125 0.2559583333
Sep-14 11.58 45 11.7625 11.455 0.125 0.0549166667
Oct-14 9.2 46 11.1475 10.5225 -1.3225 -0.084375
Nov-14 9.25 47 9.8975 9.8775 -0.6275 -0.255166667
Dec-14 9.56 48 9.8575 10.155 -0.595 0.2559583333
Jan-15 11.42 49 10.4525 10.5625 0.8575 0.0549166667
Feb-15 11.58 50 10.6725 10.875 0.705 -0.084375
Mar-15 10.13 51 11.0775 11.05 -0.92 -0.255166667
Apr-15 11.18 52 11.0225 10.8725 0.3075 0.2559583333
May-15 11.2 53 10.7225 10.34625 0.85375 0.0549166667
Jun-15 10.38 54 9.97 9.3625 1.0175 -0.084375
Jul-15 7.12 55 8.755 8.1 -0.98 -0.255166667
Aug-15 6.32 56 7.445 6.94875 -0.62875 0.2559583333
Sep-15 5.96 57 6.4525 6.155 -0.195 0.0549166667
Oct-15 6.41 58 5.8575 5.6025 0.8075 -0.084375
Nov-15 4.74 59 5.3475 5.1025 -0.3625 -0.255166667
Dec-15 4.28 60 4.8575 4.70875 -0.42875 0.2559583333
Jan-16 4 61 4.56 4.8875 -0.8875 0.0549166667
Feb-16 5.22 62 5.215 5.94875 -0.72875 -0.084375
Mar-16 7.36 63 6.6825 7.3775 -0.0175 -0.255166667
Apr-16 10.15 64 8.0725 8.91375 1.23625 0.2559583333
May-16 9.56 65 9.755 10.66625 -1.10625 0.0549166667
Jun-16 11.95 66 11.5775 11.85375 0.09625 -0.084375
Jul-16 14.65 67 12.13 12.665 1.985 -0.255166667
Aug-16 12.36 68 13.2 13.3675 -1.0075 0.2559583333
Sep-16 13.84 69 13.535 13.1 0.74 0.0549166667
Oct-16 13.29 70 12.665 12.53 0.76 -0.084375
Nov-16 11.17 71 12.395 12.38875 -1.21875 -0.255166667
Dec-16 11.28 72 12.3825 12.25875 -0.97875 0.2559583333
Jan-17 13.79 73 12.135 12.24375 1.54625 0.0549166667
Feb-17 12.3 74 12.3525 12.44375 -0.14375 -0.084375
Mar-17 12.04 75 12.535 12.36625 -0.32625 -0.255166667
Apr-17 12.01 76 12.1975 12.0975 -0.0875 0.2559583333
May-17 12.44 77 11.9975 12.0225 0.4175 0.0549166667
Jun-17 11.5 78 12.0475 12.225 -0.725 -0.084375
Jul-17 12.24 79 12.4025 12.44625 -0.20625 -0.255166667
Aug-17 13.43 80 12.49 12.77625 0.65375 0.2559583333
Sep-17 12.79 81 13.0625 13.28125 -0.49125 0.0549166667
Oct-17 13.79 82 13.5 13.58125 0.20875 -0.084375
Nov-17 13.99 83 13.6625 13.9925 -0.0025 -0.255166667
Dec-17 14.08 84 14.3225 14.5425 -0.4625 0.2559583333
Jan-18 15.43 85 14.7625 14.9175 0.5125 0.0549166667
Feb-18 15.55 86 15.0725 15.30625 0.24375 -0.084375
Mar-18 15.23 87 15.54 15.545 -0.315 -0.255166667
Apr-18 15.95 88 15.55 15.31 0.64 0.2559583333
May-18 15.47 89 15.07 14.88375 0.58625 0.0549166667
Jun-18 13.63 90 14.6975 14.2775 -0.6475 -0.084375
Jul-18 13.74 91 13.8575 13.6 0.14 -0.255166667
Aug-18 12.59 92 13.3425 13.36875 -0.77875 0.2559583333
Sep-18 13.41 93 13.395 13.445 -0.035 0.0549166667
Oct-18 13.84 94 13.495 13.94875 -0.10875 -0.084375
Nov-18 14.14 95 14.4025 14.6825 -0.5425 -0.255166667
Dec-18 16.22 96 14.9625 15.3125 0.9075 0.2559583333
Jan-19 15.65 97 15.6625 16.055 -0.405 0.0549166667
Feb-19 16.64 98 16.4475 16.44625 0.19375 -0.084375
Mar-19 17.28 99 16.445 16.385 0.895 -0.255166667
Apr-19 16.21 100 16.325 16.32875 -0.11875 0.2559583333
May-19 15.17 101 16.3325 16.0775 -0.9075 0.0549166667
Jun-19 16.67 102 15.8225 15.70125 0.96875 -0.084375
Jul-19 15.24 103 15.58 15.58125 -0.34125 -0.255166667
Aug-19 15.24 104 15.5825 15.41625 -0.17625 0.2559583333
Sep-19 15.18 105 15.25 15.26625 -0.08625 0.0549166667
Oct-19 15.34 106 15.2825 15.265 0.075 -0.084375
Nov-19 15.37 107 15.2475 14.96625 0.40375 -0.255166667
Dec-19 15.1 108 14.685 14.16125 0.93875 0.2559583333
Jan-20 12.93 109 13.6375 12.6275 0.3025 0.0549166667
Feb-20 11.15 110 11.6175 10.66625 0.48375 -0.084375
Mar-20 7.29 111 9.715 9.08 -1.79 -0.255166667
Apr-20 7.49 112 8.445 8.19375 -0.70375 0.2559583333
May-20 7.85 113 7.9425 8.51375 -0.66375 0.0549166667
Jun-20 9.14 114 9.085 9.90875 -0.76875 -0.084375
Jul-20 11.86 115 10.7325 11.27875 0.58125 -0.255166667
Aug-20 14.08 116 11.825 12.21625 1.86375 0.2559583333
Sep-20 12.22 117 12.6075 12.5125 -0.2925 0.0549166667
Oct-20 12.27 118 12.4175 12.18125 0.08875 -0.084375
Nov-20 11.1 119 11.945 11.69 -0.59 -0.255166667
Dec-20 12.19 120 11.435 11.28375 0.90625 0.2559583333
 Jan-21 10.18 121 11.1325 10.99875 -0.81875 0.0549166667
Feb-21 11.06 122 10.865 10.55625 0.50375 -0.084375
Mar-21 10.03 123 10.2475 -0.255166667
Apr-21 9.72 124 0.2559583333

Average Intercept
Slope

Ratios
Season 1 Season 2 Season 3 Season 4
-0.4975 -1.10125
2.68875 -3.8425 -0.73 5.58875
-3.64625 0.82875 -0.535 -1.89
2.625 -0.65625 -0.3725 1.32625
-0.04875 0.10375 -0.6075 -2.0675
2.96625 0.06125 -1.91875 3.7
-0.54125 -1.66875 2.1175 -1.01
-0.265 -1.07375 0.17 -0.6875
-1.2625 2.01625 -0.59375 -1.0225
0.29875 0.18 0.14125 0.88375
-1.22 -0.1875 -0.59375 2.47125
0.125 -1.3225 -0.6275 -0.595
0.8575 0.705 -0.92 0.3075
0.85375 1.0175 -0.98 -0.62875
-0.195 0.8075 -0.3625 -0.42875
-0.8875 -0.72875 -0.0175 1.23625
-1.10625 0.09625 1.985 -1.0075
0.74 0.76 -1.21875 -0.97875
1.54625 -0.14375 -0.32625 -0.0875
0.4175 -0.725 -0.20625 0.65375
-0.49125 0.20875 -0.0025 -0.4625
0.5125 0.24375 -0.315 0.64
0.58625 -0.6475 0.14 -0.77875
-0.035 -0.10875 -0.5425 0.9075
-0.405 0.19375 0.895 -0.11875
-0.9075 0.96875 -0.34125 -0.17625
-0.08625 0.075 0.40375 0.93875
0.3025 0.48375 -1.79 -0.70375
-0.66375 -0.76875 0.58125 1.86375
-0.2925 0.08875 -0.59 0.90625
-0.81875 0.50375
Average 0.0549166667 -0.084375 -0.255166667 0.2559583333

Forecasts
Period Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
125 4.4915721873 0.0549166667 4.5464888539
126 4.2770800949 -0.084375 4.1927050949
127 4.0625880026 -0.255166667 3.807421336
128 3.8480959103 0.2559583333 4.1040542436
 Forecasts and Error Analysis
Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted Error |Error| Error^2 Abs Pct Err
40.945083333 31.088591634 31.143508301 9.8564916989 9.8564916989 97.150428611 24.04%
46.754375 30.874099542 30.789724542 15.880275458 15.880275458 252.18314862 34.03%
43.225166667 30.65960745 30.404440783 12.565559217 12.565559217 157.89327843 29.24%
41.414041667 30.445115357 30.701073691 10.968926309 10.968926309 120.31734438 26.32%
44.065083333 30.230623265 30.285539932 13.834460068 13.834460068 191.39228538 31.36%
38.064375 30.016131173 29.931756173 8.0482438272 8.0482438272 64.774228702 21.19%
41.195166667 29.801639081 29.546472414 11.393527586 11.393527586 129.81247086 27.83%
46.574041667 29.587146988 29.843105322 16.986894678 16.986894678 288.55459082 36.27%
37.685083333 29.372654896 29.427571563 8.3124284375 8.3124284375 69.096466528 22.03%
41.014375 29.158162804 29.073787804 11.856212196 11.856212196 140.56976765 28.97%
39.405166667 28.943670711 28.688504045 10.461495955 10.461495955 109.44289763 26.72%
38.084041667 28.729178619 28.985136952 9.3548630477 9.3548630477 87.513462642 24.40%
42.845083333 28.514686527 28.569603193 14.330396807 14.330396807 205.36027264 33.40%
40.214375 28.300194434 28.215819434 11.914180566 11.914180566 141.94769855 29.69%
40.565166667 28.085702342 27.830535675 12.479464325 12.479464325 155.73702983 30.96%
41.014041667 27.87121025 28.127168583 13.142831417 13.142831417 172.73401766 31.85%
39.085083333 27.656718157 27.711634824 11.428365176 11.428365176 130.6075306 29.20%
38.064375 27.442226065 27.357851065 10.622148935 10.622148935 112.830048 27.97%
36.675166667 27.227733973 26.972567306 9.4474326939 9.4474326939 89.253984507 25.94%
34.404041667 27.01324188 27.269200214 7.3907997863 7.3907997863 54.623921481 21.32%
38.905083333 26.798749788 26.853666455 12.106333545 12.106333545 146.56331191 31.07%
35.844375 26.584257696 26.499882696 9.2601173042 9.2601173042 85.749772488 25.90%
33.025166667 26.369765603 26.114598937 6.6554010632 6.6554010632 44.294363312 20.31%
35.694041667 26.155273511 26.411231844 9.5387681555 9.5387681555 90.988097925 26.53%
29.535083333 25.940781419 25.995698085 3.5943019145 3.5943019145 12.919006253 12.15%
25.704375 25.726289327 25.641914327 -0.021914327 0.0219143265 0.0004802377 00.09%
26.215166667 25.511797234 25.256630568 0.7033694325 0.7033694325 0.4947285585 02.71%
19.764041667 25.297305142 25.553263475 -5.533263475 5.5332634752 30.617004686 27.64%
17.895083333 25.08281305 25.137729716 -7.187729716 7.1877297162 51.663458474 40.04%
14.844375 24.868320957 24.783945957 -10.02394596 10.023945957 100.47949255 67.91%
14.555166667 24.653828865 24.398662198 -10.0986622 10.098662198 101.98297819 70.62%
12.374041667 24.439336773 24.695295106 -12.06529511 12.065295106 145.57134599 95.53%
11.655083333 24.22484468 24.279761347 -12.56976135 12.569761347 157.99890032 107.34%
14.584375 24.010352588 23.925977588 -9.425977588 9.425977588 88.849053489 65.01%
12.055166667 23.795860496 23.540693829
10.964041667 23.581368403 23.837326737
12.345083333 23.366876311 23.421792978
12.684375 23.152384219 23.068009219
12.825166667 22.937892126 22.68272546
12.744041667 22.723400034 22.979358367
10.635083333 22.508907942 22.563824608
11.894375 22.294415849 22.210040849
11.965166667 22.079923757 21.82475709
14.304041667 21.865431665 22.121389998
11.525083333 21.650939573 21.705856239
9.284375 21.43644748 21.35207248
9.5051666667 21.221955388 20.966788721
9.3040416667 21.007463296 21.263421629
11.365083333 20.792971203 20.84788787
11.664375 20.578479111 20.494104111
10.385166667 20.363987019 20.108820352
10.924041667 20.149494926 20.40545326
11.145083333 19.935002834 19.989919501
10.464375 19.720510742 19.636135742
7.3751666667 19.506018649 19.250851983
6.0640416667 19.291526557 19.54748489
5.9050833333 19.077034465 19.131951131
6.494375 18.862542372 18.778167372
4.9951666667 18.64805028 18.392883613
4.0240416667 18.433558188 18.689516521
3.9450833333 18.219066095 18.273982762
5.304375 18.004574003 17.920199003
7.6151666667 17.790081911 17.534915244
9.8940416667 17.575589819 17.831548152
9.5050833333 17.361097726 17.416014393
12.034375 17.146605634 17.062230634
14.905166667 16.932113542 16.676946875
12.104041667 16.717621449 16.973579783
13.785083333 16.503129357 16.558046024
13.374375 16.288637265 16.204262265
11.425166667 16.074145172 15.818978506
11.024041667 15.85965308 16.115611413
13.735083333 15.645160988 15.700077654
12.384375 15.430668895 15.346293895
12.295166667 15.216176803 14.961010136
11.754041667 15.001684711 15.257643044
12.385083333 14.787192618 14.842109285
-11.74069383 11.740693829 137.84389159 99.50%
-12.61732674 12.617326737 159.19693398 112.45%
-11.02179298 11.021792978 121.47992044 88.89%
-10.46800922 10.468009219 109.579217 83.08%
-10.11272546 10.11272546 102.26721622 80.45%
-9.979358367 9.9793583674 99.587593426 76.76%
-11.87382461 11.873824608 140.98771083 111.07%
-10.40004085 10.400040849 108.16084967 88.06%
-10.11475709 10.11475709 102.308311 86.38%
-7.561389998 7.5613899982 57.174618704 51.93%
-10.12585624 10.125856239 102.53296458 87.44%
-12.15207248 12.15207248 147.67286556 132.09%
-11.71678872 11.716788721 137.28313794 126.67%
-11.70342163 11.703421629 136.97007782 122.42%
-9.42788787 9.4278878699 88.885069688 82.56%
-8.914104111 8.9141041109 79.461252101 76.98%
-9.978820352 9.978820352 99.576855617 98.51%
-9.22545326 9.2254532596 85.108987846 82.52%
-8.789919501 8.7899195007 77.262684828 78.48%
-9.256135742 9.2561357417 85.676048868 89.17%
-12.13085198 12.130851983 147.15756983 170.38%
-13.22748489 13.22748489 174.96635653 209.30%
-13.17195113 13.171951131 173.50029661 221.01%
-12.36816737 12.368167372 152.97156415 192.95%
-13.65288361 13.652883613 186.40123096 288.04%
-14.40951652 14.409516521 207.63416637 336.67%
-14.27398276 14.273982762 203.74658389 356.85%
-12.700199 12.700199003 161.29505472 243.30%
-10.17491524 10.174915244 103.52890023 138.25%
-7.681548152 7.6815481518 59.006182009 75.68%
-7.856014393 7.8560143929 61.716962141 82.18%
-5.112230634 5.1122306339 26.134902054 42.78%
-2.026946875 2.0269468749 4.1085136337 13.84%
-4.613579783 4.6135797826 21.28511841 37.33%
-2.718046024 2.7180460236 7.3877741864 19.64%
-2.914262265 2.9142622646 8.492924547 21.93%
-4.648978506 4.6489785056 21.613001146 41.62%
-4.835611413 4.8356114133 23.383137741 42.87%
-1.910077654 1.9100776543 3.6483966456 13.85%
-3.046293895 3.0462938954 9.2799064969 24.77%
-2.921010136 2.9210101364 8.5323002168 24.26%
-3.247643044 3.2476430441 10.547185342 27.04%
-2.402109285 2.4021092851 5.7701290175 19.31%
 11.584375 14.572700526 14.488325526 -2.988325526 2.9883255261 8.9300894499 25.99%
12.495166667 14.358208434 14.103041767 -1.863041767 1.8630417671 3.470924626 15.22%
13.174041667 14.143716341 14.399674675 -0.969674675 0.9696746748 0.9402689749 07.22%
12.735083333 13.929224249 13.984140916 -1.194140916 1.1941409158 1.4259725268 09.34%
13.874375 13.714732157 13.630357157 0.1596428432 0.1596428432 0.0254858374 01.16%
14.245166667 13.500240065 13.245073398 0.7449266022 0.7449266022 0.5549156426 05.32%
13.824041667 13.285747972 13.541706306 0.5382936945 0.5382936945 0.2897601015 03.82%
15.375083333 13.07125588 13.126172547 2.3038274534 2.3038274534 5.3076209353 14.93%
15.634375 12.856763788 12.772388788 2.7776112124 2.7776112124 7.7151240474 17.86%
15.485166667 12.642271695 12.387105029 2.8428949714 2.8428949714 8.0820518185 18.67%
15.694041667 12.427779603 12.683737936 3.2662620637 3.2662620637 10.668467869 20.48%
15.415083333 12.213287511 12.268204177 3.2017958227 3.2017958227 10.25149649 20.70%
13.714375 11.998795418 11.914420418 1.7155795817 1.7155795817 2.9432133011 12.59%
13.995166667 11.784303326 11.529136659 2.2108633407 2.2108633407 4.8879167111 16.09%
12.334041667 11.569811234 11.825769567 0.764230433 0.764230433 0.5840481547 06.07%
13.355083333 11.355319141 11.410235808 1.999764192 1.999764192 3.9990568235 14.91%
13.924375 11.140827049 11.056452049 2.783547951 2.783547951 7.7481391953 20.11%
14.395166667 10.926334957 10.67116829 3.4688317099 3.4688317099 12.032793432 24.53%
15.964041667 10.711842864 10.967801198 5.2521988023 5.2521988023 27.585592258 32.38%
15.595083333 10.497350772 10.552267439 5.0977325612 5.0977325612 25.986877266 32.57%
16.724375 10.28285868 10.19848368 6.4415163202 6.4415163202 41.493132504 38.71%
17.535166667 10.068366587 9.8131999208 7.4668000792 7.4668000792 55.753103423 43.21%
15.954041667 9.8538744951 10.109832828 6.1001671715 6.1001671715 37.21203952 37.63%
15.115083333 9.6393824028 9.6942990695 5.4757009305 5.4757009305 29.98330068 36.10%
16.754375 9.4248903105 9.3405153105 7.3294846895 7.3294846895 53.721345813 43.97%
15.495166667 9.2103982182 8.9552315515 6.2847684485 6.2847684485 39.498314451 41.24%
14.984041667 8.9959061259 9.2518644592 5.9881355408 5.9881355408 35.857767255 39.29%
15.125083333 8.7814140336 8.8363307002 6.3436692998 6.3436692998 40.242140185 41.79%
15.424375 8.5669219413 8.4825469413 6.8574530587 6.8574530587 47.024662453 44.70%
15.625166667 8.3524298489 8.0972631823 7.2727368177 7.2727368177 52.89270082 47.32%
14.844041667 8.1379377566 8.39389609 6.70610391 6.70610391 44.971829652 44.41%
12.875083333 7.9234456643 7.978362331 4.951637669 4.951637669 24.518715605 38.30%
11.234375 7.708953572 7.624578572 3.525421428 3.525421428 12.428596245 31.62%
7.5451666667 7.4944614797 7.239294813 0.050705187 0.050705187 0.002571016 00.70%
7.2340416667 7.2799693874 7.5359277207 -0.045927721 0.0459277207 0.0021093555 00.61%
7.7950833333 7.065477295 7.1203939617 0.7296060383 0.7296060383 0.5323249711 09.29%
9.224375 6.8509852027 6.7666102027 2.3733897973 2.3733897973 5.6329791298 25.97%
12.115166667 6.6364931104 6.3813264437 5.4786735563 5.4786735563 30.015863936 46.19%
13.824041667 6.4220010181 6.6779593514 7.4020406486 7.4020406486 54.790205763 52.57%
12.165083333 6.2075089258 6.2624255924 5.9575744076 5.9575744076 35.492692822 48.75%
12.354375 5.9930168335 5.9086418335 6.3613581665 6.3613581665 40.466877723 51.84%
11.355166667 5.7785247411 5.5233580745 5.5766419255 5.5766419255 31.098935165 50.24%
11.934041667 5.5640326488 5.8199909822 6.3700090178 6.3700090178 40.577014887 52.26%
10.125083333 5.3495405565 5.4044572232 4.7755427768 4.7755427768 22.805808813 46.91%
11.144375 5.1350484642 5.0506734642 6.0093265358 6.0093265358 36.112005414 54.33%
10.285166667 4.9205563719 4.6653897052 5.3646102948 5.3646102948 28.779043615 53.49%
9.4640416667 4.7060642796 4.9620226129 4.7579773871 4.7579773871 22.638348816 48.95%
Total 2.966516E-13 906.42468788 8799.065478 7045.15%
31.303083727 2.392352E-15 7.3098765151 70.960205467 56.82%
-0.214492092 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 8.5989375335
 Demanda de metales -Compañía
( Enero 2011- Abril 2021)

48

43

38

33

28
BVN

23

18

13

3
11 -1
1 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15
a n- ay e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p-
J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S

Demanda de metales -
( Enero 2011- Abril 202

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
11 1 1 12 2 2 13 3 3 14 4 14 15 5 5
n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 p- n- -1 -1 n-
Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay Se Ja ay S ep Ja
M M M M M

-0.1
 0.1

0
11 -1
1 11 12 -1
2 12 13 -1
3 13 14 -1
4 14 15 -1
5 15
a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- n-
J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S Ja

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

Demanda de m
( Enero 2011- A

47

42

37

32

27

22

17

12

2
Period Apr-11 Aug-11Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 De

Demanda de metales -
(Enero 2011- Abril 202

33

28

23

18
 28

23

18

13

3
11 -1
1 11 12 -1
2 12 13 -1
3 13 14 -1
4 14 15 -1
5 15
a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- n-
J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S Ja

Demanda de
(Enero 2011-
18

15

12

0
1 1 1 12 2 2 13 3 3 14 4 4 15 5 5
-1 -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n-
1
an
J-3 ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja
M M M M M

-6

-9

-12

-15
metales -Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA (ADR)
Abril 2021)

-1
4
-1
4 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 21
an ay e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n-
M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J

Meses
-

manda de metales - Componente estacional

nero 2011- Abril 2021)

4 14 15 5 5 16 6 6 17 7 7 18 8 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 21
-1 p- n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -2 -2 n-
ay Se Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja
M M M M M M M
 4 14 15 5 15 16 6 16 17 7 17 18 8 18 19 9 19 20 0 20 21
-1 p- n- -1 p- n- -1 p- n- -1 p- n- -1 p- n- -1 p- n- -2 p- n-
ay S e J a ay S e J a ay S e J a ay S e J a ay S e J a ay S e J a ay S e J a
M M M M M M M

Demanda de metales - Suavizado

( Enero 2011- Abril 2021)

3 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15 Aug-15 Dec-15 Apr-16 Aug-16Dec-16 Apr-17 Aug-17Dec-17 Apr-18 Aug-18Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20

emanda de metales -Componente tendencia

nero 2011- Abril 2021)
 -1
4 14 15 -1
5 15 16 -1
6 16 17 -1
7 17 18 -1
8 18 19 -1
9 19 20 -2
0 20 21
ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n- ay e p- a n-
M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J

Demanda de metales - Error

(Enero 2011- Abril 2021)

4 4 15 5 5 16 6 6 17 7 17 18 8 18 19 9 9 20 0 0 21
-1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 p- n- -1 p- n- -1 -1 n- -2 -2 n-
ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay Se Ja ay Se Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja
M M M M M M M
 Periodo Demanda Ajuste
Jan-11 41 31.143508301
Feb-11 46.67 30.789724542
Mar-11 42.97 30.404440783
Apr-11 41.67 30.701073691
May-11 44.12 30.285539932
Jun-11 37.98 29.931756173
Jul-11 40.94 29.546472414
Aug-11 46.83 29.843105322
Sep-11 37.74 29.427571563
Oct-11 40.93 29.073787804
Nov-11 39.15 28.688504045
Dec-11 38.34 28.985136952
53
Jan-12 42.9 28.569603193
Feb-12 40.13 28.215819434 48
Mar-12 40.31 27.830535675
Apr-12 41.27 28.127168583 43
0 20 21
-2 p- n-
ay S e J a May-12 39.14 27.711634824
M 38
Jun-12 37.98 27.357851065
Jul-12 36.42 26.972567306 33

Aug-12 34.66 27.269200214

28
Sep-12 38.96 26.853666455
Oct-12 35.76 26.499882696 23
Nov-12 32.77 26.114598937
18
Dec-12 35.95 26.411231844
Jan-13 29.59 25.995698085 13
Feb-13 25.62 25.641914327
8
Mar-13 25.96 25.256630568
Apr-13 20.02 25.553263475 3
May-13 17.95 25.137729716 Jan-11 May-11 Sep
Jun-13 14.76 24.783945957
Jul-13 14.3 24.398662198
Aug-13 12.63 24.695295106
Sep-13 11.71 24.279761347
Oct-13 14.5 23.925977588
Nov-13 11.8 23.540693829
0 0 21
-2 -2 n-
ay S ep Ja
M
 0 20 21 Dec-13 11.22 23.837326737
-2 p- n-
ay S e J a
M Jan-14 12.4 23.421792978
Feb-14 12.6 23.068009219
Mar-14 12.57 22.68272546
Apr-14 13 22.979358367
May-14 10.69 22.563824608
Jun-14 11.81 22.210040849
Jul-14 11.71 21.82475709
Aug-14 14.56 22.121389998
Sep-14 11.58 21.705856239
Oct-14 9.2 21.35207248
Nov-14 9.25 20.966788721
Dec-14 9.56 21.263421629
Jan-15 11.42 20.84788787
Feb-15 11.58 20.494104111
Mar-15 10.13 20.108820352
Apr-15 11.18 20.40545326
May-15 11.2 19.989919501
Jun-15 10.38 19.636135742
Jul-15 7.12 19.250851983
Aug-15 6.32 19.54748489
Sep-15 5.96 19.131951131
Oct-15 6.41 18.778167372
Nov-15 4.74 18.392883613
Dec-15 4.28 18.689516521
Jan-16 4 18.273982762
Feb-16 5.22 17.920199003
Mar-16 7.36 17.534915244
Apr-16 10.15 17.831548152
May-16 9.56 17.416014393
Jun-16 11.95 17.062230634
c-19 Apr-20 Aug-20Dec-20
Jul-16 14.65 16.676946875
Aug-16 12.36 16.973579783
Sep-16 13.84 16.558046024
Oct-16 13.29 16.204262265
Nov-16 11.17 15.818978506
Dec-16 11.28 16.115611413
Jan-17 13.79 15.700077654
Feb-17 12.3 15.346293895
Mar-17 12.04 14.961010136
Apr-17 12.01 15.257643044
May-17 12.44 14.842109285
Jun-17 11.5 14.488325526
 Jul-17 12.24 14.103041767
Aug-17 13.43 14.399674675
Sep-17 12.79 13.984140916
- Oct-17 13.79 13.630357157
Nov-17 13.99 13.245073398
Dec-17 14.08 13.541706306
Jan-18 15.43 13.126172547
Feb-18 15.55 12.772388788
Mar-18 15.23 12.387105029
-2
0 20 21 Apr-18 15.95 12.683737936
ay e p- a n-
M S J May-18 15.47 12.268204177
Jun-18 13.63 11.914420418
Jul-18 13.74 11.529136659
Aug-18 12.59 11.825769567
Sep-18 13.41 11.410235808
Oct-18 13.84 11.056452049
Nov-18 14.14 10.67116829
Dec-18 16.22 10.967801198
Jan-19 15.65 10.552267439
Feb-19 16.64 10.19848368
Mar-19 17.28 9.8131999208
Apr-19 16.21 10.109832828
May-19 15.17 9.6942990695
Jun-19 16.67 9.3405153105
Jul-19 15.24 8.9552315515
Aug-19 15.24 9.2518644592
Sep-19 15.18 8.8363307002
0 0 21
-2 -2 n- Oct-19 15.34 8.4825469413
ay S ep Ja
M
Nov-19 15.37 8.0972631823
Dec-19 15.1 8.39389609
Jan-20 12.93 7.978362331
Feb-20 11.15 7.624578572
Mar-20 7.29 7.239294813
Apr-20 7.49 7.5359277207
May-20 7.85 7.1203939617
Jun-20 9.14 6.7666102027
Jul-20 11.86 6.3813264437
Aug-20 14.08 6.6779593514
Sep-20 12.22 6.2624255924
Oct-20 12.27 5.9086418335
Nov-20 11.1 5.5233580745
Dec-20 12.19 5.8199909822
Jan-21 10.18 5.4044572232
Feb-21 11.06 5.0506734642
Mar-21 10.03 4.6653897052
Apr-21 9.72 4.9620226129
 Demanda de metales - Compañía de Minas B
Datos reales y pronóstocos
(Enero 2011- Abril 2021 )

53

48

43

38

33

28

23

18

13

3
Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16

Demanda Aju
 ompañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA (ADR)
cos
)

May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Jan-17 May-17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May-18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May-19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May-20 Sep-20 Jan-21

Demanda Ajuste
20 Sep-20 Jan-21
Descomposición multiplicativa

Forecasting Decomposition, multiplicative

Enter
Enter past
past demands
demands in
in the
the data
data area.
area. Do
Do not
not change
change the
the
time
time period
period numbers!
numbers!
4 seasons

Data
Period Demand (y) Time (x) Average Ratio Seasonal
Jan-11 41 1 0.9928566837
Feb-11 46.67 2 1.0031749674
Mar-11 42.97 3 43.0775 43.4675 0.9885546673 0.9794488089
Apr-11 41.67 4 43.8575 42.77125 0.9742525645 1.0089924996
May-11 44.12 5 41.685 41.43125 1.0648966662 0.9928566837
Jun-11 37.98 6 41.1775 41.8225 0.9081236177 1.0031749674
Jul-11 40.94 7 42.4675 41.67 0.9824814015 0.9794488089
Aug-11 46.83 8 40.8725 41.24125 1.1355135938 1.0089924996
Sep-11 37.74 9 41.61 41.38625 0.9118970673 0.9928566837
Oct-11 40.93 10 41.1625 40.10125 1.0206664381 1.0031749674
Nov-11 39.15 11 39.04 39.685 0.9865188358 0.9794488089
Dec-11 38.34 12 40.33 40.23 0.9530201342 1.0089924996
Jan-12 42.9 13 40.13 40.275 1.0651769088 0.9928566837
Feb-12 40.13 14 40.42 40.78625 0.9839100187 1.0031749674
Mar-12 40.31 15 41.1525 40.6825 0.9908437289 0.9794488089
Apr-12 41.27 16 40.2125 39.94375 1.0332029416 1.0089924996
May-12 39.14 17 39.675 39.18875 0.9987560205 0.9928566837
Jun-12 37.98 18 38.7025 37.87625 1.0027391835 1.0031749674
Jul-12 36.42 19 37.05 37.0275 0.9835932753 0.9794488089
Aug-12 34.66 20 37.005 36.7275 0.9437070315 1.0089924996
Sep-12 38.96 21 36.45 35.99375 1.0824101406 0.9928566837
Oct-12 35.76 22 35.5375 35.69875 1.0017157463 1.0031749674
Nov-12 32.77 23 35.86 34.68875 0.944686678 0.9794488089
Dec-12 35.95 24 33.5175 32.25 1.1147286822 1.0089924996
Jan-13 29.59 25 30.9825 30.13125 0.9820369218 0.9928566837
Feb-13 25.62 26 29.28 27.28875 0.9388484265 1.0031749674
Mar-13 25.96 27 25.2975 23.8425 1.0888119954 0.9794488089
Apr-13 20.02 28 22.3875 21.03 0.9519733714 1.0089924996
May-13 17.95 29 19.6725 18.215 0.9854515509 0.9928566837
Jun-13 14.76 30 16.7575 15.83375 0.9321859951 1.0031749674
Jul-13 14.3 31 14.91 14.13 1.0120311394 0.9794488089
Aug-13 12.63 32 13.35 13.3175 0.9483761967 1.0089924996
Sep-13 11.71 33 13.285 12.9725 0.9026787435 0.9928566837
Oct-13 14.5 34 12.66 12.48375 1.161509963 1.0031749674
Nov-13 11.8 35 12.3075 12.39375 0.9520927887 0.9794488089
Dec-13 11.22 36 12.48 12.2425 0.9164794772 1.0089924996
Jan-14 12.4 37 12.005 12.10125 1.0246875323 0.9928566837
Feb-14 12.6 38 12.1975 12.42 1.0144927536 1.0031749674
Mar-14 12.57 39 12.6425 12.42875 1.0113647792 0.9794488089
Apr-14 13 40 12.215 12.11625 1.0729392345 1.0089924996
May-14 10.69 41 12.0175 11.91 0.8975650714 0.9928566837
Jun-14 11.81 42 11.8025 11.9975 0.9843717441 1.0031749674
Jul-14 11.71 43 12.1925 12.30375 0.951742355 0.9794488089
Aug-14 14.56 44 12.415 12.08875 1.2044256023 1.0089924996
Sep-14 11.58 45 11.7625 11.455 1.0109122654 0.9928566837
Oct-14 9.2 46 11.1475 10.5225 0.8743169399 1.0031749674
Nov-14 9.25 47 9.8975 9.8775 0.9364717793 0.9794488089
Dec-14 9.56 48 9.8575 10.155 0.9414081733 1.0089924996
Jan-15 11.42 49 10.4525 10.5625 1.081183432 0.9928566837
Feb-15 11.58 50 10.6725 10.875 1.0648275862 1.0031749674
Mar-15 10.13 51 11.0775 11.05 0.9167420814 0.9794488089
Apr-15 11.18 52 11.0225 10.8725 1.0282823638 1.0089924996
May-15 11.2 53 10.7225 10.34625 1.0825178205 0.9928566837
Jun-15 10.38 54 9.97 9.3625 1.1086782377 1.0031749674
Jul-15 7.12 55 8.755 8.1 0.8790123457 0.9794488089
Aug-15 6.32 56 7.445 6.94875 0.9095161 1.0089924996
Sep-15 5.96 57 6.4525 6.155 0.9683184403 0.9928566837
Oct-15 6.41 58 5.8575 5.6025 1.1441320839 1.0031749674
Nov-15 4.74 59 5.3475 5.1025 0.9289563939 0.9794488089
Dec-15 4.28 60 4.8575 4.70875 0.908946111 1.0089924996
Jan-16 4 61 4.56 4.8875 0.8184143223 0.9928566837
Feb-16 5.22 62 5.215 5.94875 0.8774952721 1.0031749674
Mar-16 7.36 63 6.6825 7.3775 0.9976279227 0.9794488089
Apr-16 10.15 64 8.0725 8.91375 1.1386902258 1.0089924996
May-16 9.56 65 9.755 10.66625 0.8962850111 0.9928566837
Jun-16 11.95 66 11.5775 11.85375 1.0081197933 1.0031749674
Jul-16 14.65 67 12.13 12.665 1.1567311488 0.9794488089
Aug-16 12.36 68 13.2 13.3675 0.924630634 1.0089924996
Sep-16 13.84 69 13.535 13.1 1.0564885496 0.9928566837
Oct-16 13.29 70 12.665 12.53 1.0606544294 1.0031749674
Nov-16 11.17 71 12.395 12.38875 0.9016244577 0.9794488089
Dec-16 11.28 72 12.3825 12.25875 0.9201590701 1.0089924996
Jan-17 13.79 73 12.135 12.24375 1.1262889229 0.9928566837
Feb-17 12.3 74 12.3525 12.44375 0.9884480161 1.0031749674
Mar-17 12.04 75 12.535 12.36625 0.9736177095 0.9794488089
Apr-17 12.01 76 12.1975 12.0975 0.9927671006 1.0089924996
May-17 12.44 77 11.9975 12.0225 1.0347265544 0.9928566837
Jun-17 11.5 78 12.0475 12.225 0.9406952965 1.0031749674
Jul-17 12.24 79 12.4025 12.44625 0.9834287436 0.9794488089
Aug-17 13.43 80 12.49 12.77625 1.0511691615 1.0089924996
Sep-17 12.79 81 13.0625 13.28125 0.9630117647 0.9928566837
Oct-17 13.79 82 13.5 13.58125 1.0153704556 1.0031749674
Nov-17 13.99 83 13.6625 13.9925 0.9998213329 0.9794488089
Dec-17 14.08 84 14.3225 14.5425 0.9681966649 1.0089924996
Jan-18 15.43 85 14.7625 14.9175 1.0343556226 0.9928566837
Feb-18 15.55 86 15.0725 15.30625 1.0159248673 1.0031749674
Mar-18 15.23 87 15.54 15.545 0.9797362496 0.9794488089
Apr-18 15.95 88 15.55 15.31 1.0418027433 1.0089924996
May-18 15.47 89 15.07 14.88375 1.0393885949 0.9928566837
Jun-18 13.63 90 14.6975 14.2775 0.9546489231 1.0031749674
Jul-18 13.74 91 13.8575 13.6 1.0102941176 0.9794488089
Aug-18 12.59 92 13.3425 13.36875 0.9417484806 1.0089924996
Sep-18 13.41 93 13.395 13.445 0.9973968018 0.9928566837
Oct-18 13.84 94 13.495 13.94875 0.9922036025 1.0031749674
Nov-18 14.14 95 14.4025 14.6825 0.9630512515 0.9794488089
Dec-18 16.22 96 14.9625 15.3125 1.0592653061 1.0089924996
Jan-19 15.65 97 15.6625 16.055 0.9747742136 0.9928566837
Feb-19 16.64 98 16.4475 16.44625 1.0117808011 1.0031749674
Mar-19 17.28 99 16.445 16.385 1.0546231309 0.9794488089
Apr-19 16.21 100 16.325 16.32875 0.9927275511 1.0089924996
May-19 15.17 101 16.3325 16.0775 0.9435546571 0.9928566837
Jun-19 16.67 102 15.8225 15.70125 1.0616989093 1.0031749674
Jul-19 15.24 103 15.58 15.58125 0.9780986763 0.9794488089
Aug-19 15.24 104 15.5825 15.41625 0.9885672586 1.0089924996
Sep-19 15.18 105 15.25 15.26625 0.9943502825 0.9928566837
Oct-19 15.34 106 15.2825 15.265 1.0049132001 1.0031749674
Nov-19 15.37 107 15.2475 14.96625 1.0269773657 0.9794488089
Dec-19 15.1 108 14.685 14.16125 1.0662900521 1.0089924996
Jan-20 12.93 109 13.6375 12.6275 1.0239556523 0.9928566837
Feb-20 11.15 110 11.6175 10.66625 1.0453533341 1.0031749674
Mar-20 7.29 111 9.715 9.08 0.8028634361 0.9794488089
Apr-20 7.49 112 8.445 8.19375 0.9141113654 1.0089924996
May-20 7.85 113 7.9425 8.51375 0.9220378799 0.9928566837
Jun-20 9.14 114 9.085 9.90875 0.9224170556 1.0031749674
Jul-20 11.86 115 10.7325 11.27875 1.0515349662 0.9794488089
Aug-20 14.08 116 11.825 12.21625 1.1525631843 1.0089924996
Sep-20 12.22 117 12.6075 12.5125 0.9766233766 0.9928566837
Oct-20 12.27 118 12.4175 12.18125 1.0072857876 1.0031749674
Nov-20 11.1 119 11.945 11.69 0.9495295124 0.9794488089
Dec-20 12.19 120 11.435 11.28375 1.0803146117 1.0089924996
 Jan-21 10.18 121 11.1325 10.99875 0.9255597227 0.9928566837
Feb-21 11.06 122 10.865 10.55625 1.0477205447 1.0031749674
Mar-21 10.03 123 10.2475 0.9794488089
Apr-21 9.72 124 1.0089924996

Average Intercept
Slope

Ratios
Season 1 Season 2
Season 3 Season 4
0.9885546673 0.9742525645
1.0648966662 0.9081236177 0.9824814015 1.1355135938
0.9118970673 1.0206664381 0.9865188358 0.9530201342
1.0651769088 0.9839100187 0.9908437289 1.0332029416 50
0.9987560205 1.0027391835 0.9835932753 0.9437070315 45
1.0824101406 1.0017157463 0.944686678 1.1147286822
40
0.9820369218 0.9388484265 1.0888119954 0.9519733714
0.9854515509 0.9321859951 1.0120311394 0.9483761967 35
0.9026787435 1.161509963 0.9520927887 0.9164794772 30
1.0246875323 1.0144927536 1.0113647792 1.0729392345 25

Value
0.8975650714 0.9843717441 0.951742355 1.2044256023 20
1.0109122654 0.8743169399 0.9364717793 0.9414081733
15
1.081183432 1.0648275862 0.9167420814 1.0282823638
1.0825178205 1.1086782377 0.8790123457 0.9095161 10
0.9683184403 1.1441320839 0.9289563939 0.908946111 5
0.8184143223 0.8774952721 0.9976279227 1.1386902258 0
0.8962850111 1.0081197933 1.1567311488 0.924630634 1 4 7
1.0564885496 1.0606544294 0.9016244577 0.9201590701
1.1262889229 0.9884480161 0.9736177095 0.9927671006
1.0347265544 0.9406952965 0.9834287436 1.0511691615
0.9630117647 1.0153704556 0.9998213329 0.9681966649
1.0343556226 1.0159248673 0.9797362496 1.0418027433
1.0393885949 0.9546489231 1.0102941176 0.9417484806
0.9973968018 0.9922036025 0.9630512515 1.0592653061
0.9747742136 1.0117808011 1.0546231309 0.9927275511
0.9435546571 1.0616989093 0.9780986763 0.9885672586
0.9943502825 1.0049132001 1.0269773657 1.0662900521
1.0239556523 1.0453533341 0.8028634361 0.9141113654
0.9220378799 0.9224170556 1.0515349662 1.1525631843
0.9766233766 1.0072857876 0.9495295124 1.0803146117
0.9255597227 1.0477205447
Average 0.9928566837 1.0031749674 0.9794488089 1.0089924996

Forecasts
Period Unadjusted Seasonal Adjusted
125 4.5008423906 0.9928566837 4.4686914497
126 4.2854783877 1.0031749674 4.299084642
127 4.0701143849 0.9794488089 3.9864686863
128 3.854750382 1.0089924996 3.8894142233
 Forecasts and Error Analysis
Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted Error |Error| Error^2 Abs Pct Err
41.294983127 31.205978742 30.983064565 10.016935435 10.016935435 100.3389955 24.43%
46.522293234 30.99061474 31.089008932 15.580991068 15.580991068 242.76728267 33.39%
43.871613923 30.775250737 30.142782677 12.827217323 12.827217323 164.53750425 29.85%
41.298622157 30.559886734 30.834696503 10.835303497 10.835303497 117.40380187 26.00%
44.437430623 30.344522731 30.127762207 13.992237793 13.992237793 195.78271847 31.71%
37.85979638 30.129158728 30.224817826 7.7551821743 7.7551821743 60.142850557 20.42%
41.799019641 29.913794725 29.299030613 11.640969387 11.640969387 135.51216827 28.43%
46.412634403 29.698430722 29.965493849 16.864506151 16.864506151 284.41156772 36.01%
38.011528371 29.48306672 29.272459848 8.4675401519 8.4675401519 71.699236225 22.44%
40.800459869 29.267702717 29.36062672 11.56937328 11.56937328 133.8503981 28.27%
39.971461137 29.052338714 28.455278549 10.694721451 10.694721451 114.37706692 27.32%
37.9983003 28.836974711 29.096291195 9.2437088051 9.2437088051 85.446152474 24.11%
43.208653077 28.621610708 28.41715749 14.48284251 14.48284251 209.75272718 33.76%
40.002991804 28.406246705 28.496435613 11.633564387 11.633564387 135.33982034 28.99%
41.155800726 28.190882703 27.611526484 12.698473516 12.698473516 161.25122963 31.50%
40.902187099 27.9755187 28.227088541 13.042911459 13.042911459 170.11753934 31.60%
39.421600965 27.760154697 27.561855131 11.578144869 11.578144869 134.05343861 29.58%
37.85979638 27.544790694 27.632244507 10.347755493 10.347755493 107.07604374 27.25%
37.184179173 27.329426691 26.76777442 9.6522255799 9.6522255799 93.165458645 26.50%
34.351097767 27.114062688 27.357885886 7.3021141135 7.3021141135 53.320870527 21.07%
39.240305918 26.898698686 26.706552772 12.253447228 12.253447228 150.14696896 31.45%
35.6468225 26.683334683 26.768053401 8.9919465988 8.9919465988 80.855103636 25.15%
33.457593396 26.46797068 25.924022356 6.8459776441 6.8459776441 46.867409903 20.89%
35.629600829 26.252606677 26.488683232 9.4613167677 9.4613167677 89.516514979 26.32%
29.802891481 26.037242674 25.851250414 3.7387495862 3.7387495862 13.978248468 12.64%
25.538914777 25.821878671 25.903862295 -0.283862295 0.2838622951 0.0805778026 01.11%
26.504703222 25.606514669 25.080270292 0.8797297083 0.8797297083 0.7739243597 03.39%
19.841574648 25.391150666 25.619480578 -5.599480578 5.5994805781 31.354182745 27.97%
18.079145052 25.175786663 24.995948055 -7.045948055 7.0459480552 49.645383997 39.25%
14.713285797 24.96042266 25.039671189 -10.27967119 10.279671189 105.67163975 69.65%
14.600048385 24.745058657 24.236518227 -9.936518227 9.9365182275 98.734394485 69.49%
12.517436953 24.529694654 24.750277924 -12.12027792 12.120277924 146.90113695 95.96%
11.794250059 24.314330652 24.140645697 -12.4306457 12.430645697 154.52095244 106.15%
14.454108676 24.098966649 24.175480083 -9.675480083 9.6754800828 93.614914833 66.73%
12.047592373 23.883602646 23.392766163
11.120003374 23.668238643 23.88107527
12.489214409 23.45287464 23.285343338
12.560122022 23.237510637 23.311288977
12.833748825 23.022146635 22.549014099
12.884139382 22.806782632 23.011872616
10.766911454 22.591418629 22.43004098
11.772622308 22.376054626 22.447097871
11.955703957 22.160690623 21.705262035
14.430236107 21.94532662 22.142669961
11.663314747 21.729962618 21.574738621
9.170882746 21.514598615 21.582906764
9.4440872419 21.299234612 20.861509971
9.4747978838 21.083870609 21.273467307
11.502163593 20.868506606 20.719436262
11.543350239 20.653142603 20.718715658
10.342551758 20.4377786 20.017757906
11.080359868 20.222414598 20.404264653
11.280580757 20.007050595 19.864133904
10.347148142 19.791686592 19.854524552
7.2693947202 19.576322589 19.174005842
6.2636739148 19.360958586 19.535061999
6.002880474 19.145594583 19.008831545
6.3897128698 18.930230581 18.990333446
4.8394565975 18.714866578 18.330253778
4.2418551195 18.499502575 18.665859345
4.0287788416 18.284138572 18.153529187
5.2034791233 18.068774569 18.12614234
7.5144304973 17.853410566 17.486501714
10.059539594 17.638046564 17.79665669
9.6287814315 17.422682561 17.298226828
11.912179219 17.207318558 17.261951234
14.957392226 16.991954555 16.64274965
12.249843289 16.776590552 16.927454036
13.939574792 16.561226549 16.44292447
13.247938228 16.345862547 16.397760128
11.404373459 16.130498544 15.798997585
11.179468633 15.915134541 16.058251382
13.889215057 15.699770538 15.587622111
12.261071497 15.484406535 15.533569022
12.29262815 15.269042532 14.955245521
11.902962613 15.05367853 15.189048728
12.529502197 14.838314527 14.732319752
-11.59276616 11.592766163 134.39222732 98.24%
-12.66107527 12.66107527 160.30282699 112.84%
-10.88534334 10.885343338 118.49069959 87.79%
-10.71128898 10.711288977 114.73171154 85.01%
-9.979014099 9.979014099 99.580722389 79.39%
-10.01187262 10.011872616 100.23759327 77.01%
-11.74004098 11.74004098 137.8285622 109.82%
-10.63709787 10.637097871 113.14785111 90.07%
-9.995262035 9.9952620348 99.905263145 85.36%
-7.582669961 7.5826699613 57.496883743 52.08%
-9.994738621 9.994738621 99.894800102 86.31%
-12.38290676 12.382906764 153.33637994 134.60%
-11.61150997 11.611509971 134.8271638 125.53%
-11.71346731 11.713467307 137.20531636 122.53%
-9.299436262 9.2994362624 86.479514799 81.43%
-9.138715658 9.1387156583 83.516123884 78.92%
-9.887757906 9.8877579064 97.767756415 97.61%
-9.224264653 9.224264653 85.087058388 82.51%
-8.664133904 8.6641339038 75.067216304 77.36%
-9.474524552 9.4745245522 89.76661549 91.28%
-12.05400584 12.054005842 145.29905684 169.30%
-13.215062 13.215061999 174.63786363 209.10%
-13.04883155 13.048831545 170.2720047 218.94%
-12.58033345 12.580333446 158.26478961 196.26%
-13.59025378 13.590253778 184.69499775 286.71%
-14.38585934 14.385859345 206.95294908 336.12%
-14.15352919 14.153529187 200.32238844 353.84%
-12.90614234 12.90614234 166.5685101 247.24%
-10.12650171 10.126501714 102.54603696 137.59%
-7.64665669 7.6466566904 58.471358541 75.34%
-7.738226828 7.7382268282 59.880154444 80.94%
-5.311951234 5.3119512338 28.216825911 44.45%
-1.99274965 1.9927496495 3.9710511657 13.60%
-4.567454036 4.5674540362 20.861636373 36.95%
-2.60292447 2.6029244696 6.7752157944 18.81%
-3.107760128 3.1077601277 9.6581730114 23.38%
-4.628997585 4.6289975853 21.427618645 41.44%
-4.778251382 4.778251382 22.83168627 42.36%
-1.797622111 1.797622111 3.231445254 13.04%
-3.233569022 3.2335690216 10.455968617 26.29%
-2.915245521 2.9152455211 8.4986564482 24.21%
-3.179048728 3.1790487278 10.106350814 26.47%
-2.292319752 2.2923197525 5.2547298475 18.43%
11.463603433 14.622950524 14.669377915 -3.169377915 3.1693779155 10.044956371 27.56%
12.496824631 14.407586521 14.111493457 -1.871493457 1.8714934569 3.5024877591 15.29%
13.310307069 14.192222518 14.319846074 -0.889846074 0.8898460736 0.7918260347 06.63%
12.882020346 13.976858515 13.877017394 -1.087017394 1.0870173939 1.1816068146 08.50%
13.746355768 13.761494513 13.805186809 -0.015186809 0.0151868094 0.0002306392 00.11%
14.283543839 13.54613051 13.267741393 0.7222586073 0.7222586073 0.5216574959 05.16%
13.954514038 13.330766507 13.450643419 0.6293565806 0.6293565806 0.3960897055 04.47%
15.541014382 13.115402504 13.021715035 2.4082849647 2.4082849647 5.7998364711 15.61%
15.500785511 12.900038501 12.940995703 2.6090042968 2.6090042968 6.8069034206 16.78%
15.549562021 12.684674498 12.423989328 2.8060106716 2.8060106716 7.8736958889 18.42%
15.807847934 12.469310496 12.581440765 3.3685592348 3.3685592348 11.347191318 21.12%
15.58130217 12.253946493 12.166412677 3.3035873232 3.3035873232 10.913689202 21.35%
13.586862155 12.03858249 12.076804597 1.5531954029 1.5531954029 2.4124159596 11.40%
14.028298238 11.823218487 11.580237264 2.1597627358 2.1597627358 4.6645750748 15.72%
12.477793447 11.607854484 11.712238111 0.877761889 0.877761889 0.7704659337 06.97%
13.506481067 11.392490481 11.311110318 2.0988896818 2.0988896818 4.4053378964 15.65%
13.796197522 11.177126479 11.212613491 2.627386509 2.627386509 6.9031598678 18.98%
14.4366912 10.961762476 10.7364852 3.4035148 3.4035148 11.583912994 24.07%
16.075441598 10.746398473 10.843035457 5.3769645431 5.3769645431 28.911747698 33.15%
15.762597218 10.53103447 10.45580796 5.1941920404 5.1941920404 26.979630952 33.19%
16.587335749 10.315670467 10.348422385 6.2915776151 6.2915776151 39.583948887 37.81%
17.64257595 10.100306464 9.8927331358 7.3872668642 7.3872668642 54.571711723 42.75%
16.065530721 9.8849424615 9.9738328027 6.2361671973 6.2361671973 38.889781313 38.47%
15.279143757 9.6695784586 9.6005056011 5.5694943989 5.5694943989 31.01926786 36.71%
16.617240802 9.4542144558 9.4842312787 7.1857687213 7.1857687213 51.635272115 43.11%
15.559771845 9.238850453 9.0489810716 6.1910189284 6.1910189284 38.328715372 40.62%
15.104175706 9.0234864501 9.1046301485 6.1353698515 6.1353698515 37.642763215 40.26%
15.289215704 8.8081224473 8.7452032425 6.4347967575 6.4347967575 41.40660931 42.39%
15.291450144 8.5927584445 8.6200401726 6.7199598274 6.7199598274 45.157860082 43.81%
15.692499558 8.3773944416 8.2052290074 7.1647709926 7.1647709926 51.333943377 46.62%
14.965423436 8.1620304388 8.2354274943 6.8645725057 6.8645725057 47.122355686 45.46%
13.023027606 7.9466664359 7.8899008839 5.0400991161 5.0400991161 25.4025991 38.98%
11.114711154 7.7313024331 7.7558490665 3.3941509335 3.3941509335 11.520260559 30.44%
7.442961729 7.5159384303 7.3614769431 -0.071476943 0.0714769431 0.0051089534 00.98%
7.4232464591 7.3005744274 7.3662248401 0.1237751599 0.1237751599 0.0153202902 01.65%
7.9064784767 7.0852104246 7.0345985254 0.8154014746 0.8154014746 0.6648795648 10.39%
9.1110726412 6.8698464218 6.8916579604 2.2483420396 2.2483420396 5.0550419272 24.60%
12.108851318 6.6544824189 6.5177248789 5.3422751211 5.3422751211 28.539903469 45.04%
13.954514038 6.4391184161 6.4970221859 7.5829778141 7.5829778141 57.501552529 53.86%
12.307919361 6.2237544132 6.1792961668 6.0407038332 6.0407038332 36.490102801 49.43%
12.231166445 6.0083904104 6.0274668542 6.2425331458 6.2425331458 38.969220076 50.88%
11.33290469 5.7930264076 5.6739728147 5.4260271853 5.4260271853 29.441771016 48.88%
12.081358389 5.5776624047 5.6278195317 6.5621804683 6.5621804683 43.062212498 53.83%
10.253242152 5.3622984019 5.3239938082 4.8560061918 4.8560061918 23.580796135 47.70%
11.024995997 5.1469343991 5.1632757481 5.8967242519 5.8967242519 34.771356903 53.32%
10.240453517 4.9315703962 4.8302207505 5.1997792495 5.1997792495 27.037704244 51.84%
9.6333719069 4.7162063934 4.7586168775 4.9613831225 4.9613831225 24.615322488 51.04%
Total -0.067727855 906.96720391 8800.4467783 7046.27%
31.421342745 -0.000546192 7.3142516444 70.971344987 56.82%
-0.215364003 Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 8.5996124489

Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA (ADR)

50
45
40
35
30
25
Value

20
15
10
5
0
1 4 7 10 1 3 1 6 19 22 25 2 8 3 1 34 37 4 0 43 46 4 9 52 55 5 8 61 64 6 7 7 0 73 7 6 79 82 8 5 8 8 91 94 9 7 0 0 0 3 0 6
1 1 1

Time

Demand (y) Smoothed Unadjusted Adjusted

 Demanda de metales -Compañía
( Enero 2011- Abril 2021)
48

43

38

33

28

23

18

13

3
11 -1
1 11 12 -1
2 12 13 -1
3 13 14 -1
4 14 15 15 15
n- ay p- n- ay p- n- ay p- n- ay p- n- a y- p-
Ja M S e Ja M S e Ja M S e Ja M S e J a
M S e Ja

Demanda de metales
( Enero 2011- Abril 20
1.013

1.008

1.003

0.998

0.993

0.988
1.008

1.003

0.998

0.993

0.988

0.983

0.978

0.973
11 -1
1 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15
a n- ay e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p-
J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S

Demanda de
( Enero 2011-
47

42

37

32

27

22

17

12

2
11 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5
n- -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Ja ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep
M M M M M

Demanda de metale
(Enero 2011- Abril 2
33

28

23

18

13
28

23

18

13

3
11 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5
n- -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1
Ja ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep
M M M M M

Demanda
(Enero 20
19
17
15
13
11
9
7
5
3
1
-1 11 1 1 12 2 2 13 3 3 14 4 4 15 5
n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1
Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay Se
-3 M M M M M

-5
-7
-9
-11
-13
-15
-17
(ADR)

79 82 8 5 8 8 91 94 9 7 1 0 0 1 0 3 10 6 10 9 1 1 2 11 5 11 8 1 2 1 12 4

Adjusted
 de metales -Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA (ADR)
011- Abril 2021)

-1
4 14 15 -1
5 15 16 -1
6 16 17 -1
7 17 18 -1
8 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 21
ay e p- n- ay p- n- ay p- n- ay p- n- ay p- n- a y- p- n- a y- p- n-
M S Ja M S e Ja M S e Ja M S e Ja M S e J a
M S e J a
M S e Ja

Demanda de metales - Componente estacional

Enero 2011- Abril 2021)
 14 -1
4 14 15 15 15 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 21
n- ay e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n- a y- e p- a n-
M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J M S J

Demanda de metales - Suavizado

( Enero 2011- Abril 2021)

4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 1
-1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2
an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an
M M M M M M M

Demanda de metales -Componente tendencia

(Enero 2011- Abril 2021)
 14 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 1
n- -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -2
Ja ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an ay S ep J an
M M M M M M M

Demanda de metales - Error

(Enero 2011- Abril 2021)

14 4 4 15 5 5 16 6 6 17 7 7 18 8 8 19 9 9 20 0 0 21
n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -1 -1 n- -2 -2 n-
Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja ay S ep Ja
M M M M M M M
 Periodo Demanda de metales AJUSTE
Jan-11 41 30.983064565
Feb-11 46.67 31.089008932
Mar-11 42.97 30.142782677
Apr-11 41.67 30.834696503
May-11 44.12 30.127762207
Jun-11 37.98 30.224817826
Jul-11 40.94 29.299030613
Aug-11 46.83 29.965493849
Sep-11 37.74 29.272459848
Oct-11 40.93 29.36062672
Nov-11 39.15 28.455278549
Dec-11 38.34 29.096291195
Jan-12 42.9 28.41715749
Feb-12 40.13 28.496435613
Mar-12 40.31 27.611526484
Apr-12 41.27 28.227088541
May-12 39.14 27.561855131
Jun-12 37.98 27.632244507
Jul-12 36.42 26.76777442
Aug-12 34.66 27.357885886
0 Sep-12 38.96 26.706552772
-2 20 21
ay e p- a n- Oct-12 35.76 26.768053401
M S J
Nov-12 32.77 25.924022356
Dec-12 35.95 26.488683232
Jan-13 29.59 25.851250414
Feb-13 25.62 25.903862295
Mar-13 25.96 25.080270292
Apr-13 20.02 25.619480578
May-13 17.95 24.995948055
Jun-13 14.76 25.039671189
Jul-13 14.3 24.236518227
Aug-13 12.63 24.750277924
Sep-13 11.71 24.140645697
Oct-13 14.5 24.175480083
 Nov-13 11.8 23.392766163
Dec-13 11.22 23.88107527
Jan-14 12.4 23.285343338
Feb-14 12.6 23.311288977
Mar-14 12.57 22.549014099
Apr-14 13 23.011872616
May-14 10.69 22.43004098
Jun-14 11.81 22.447097871
20 -2
0 20 21 Jul-14 11.71 21.705262035
ay e p- a n-
M S J Aug-14 14.56 22.142669961
Sep-14 11.58 21.574738621
Oct-14 9.2 21.582906764
Nov-14 9.25 20.861509971
Dec-14 9.56 21.273467307
Jan-15 11.42 20.719436262
Feb-15 11.58 20.718715658
Mar-15 10.13 20.017757906
Apr-15 11.18 20.404264653
May-15 11.2 19.864133904
Jun-15 10.38 19.854524552
Jul-15 7.12 19.174005842
Aug-15 6.32 19.535061999
Sep-15 5.96 19.008831545
Oct-15 6.41 18.990333446
Nov-15 4.74 18.330253778
Dec-15 4.28 18.665859345
Jan-16 4 18.153529187
Feb-16 5.22 18.12614234
Mar-16 7.36 17.486501714
Apr-16 10.15 17.79665669
May-16 9.56 17.298226828
20 0 0 1
n- -2 -2 -2 Jun-16 11.95 17.261951234
ay S ep J an
M
Jul-16 14.65 16.64274965
Aug-16 12.36 16.927454036
Sep-16 13.84 16.44292447
Oct-16 13.29 16.397760128
Nov-16 11.17 15.798997585
Dec-16 11.28 16.058251382
Jan-17 13.79 15.587622111
Feb-17 12.3 15.533569022
Mar-17 12.04 14.955245521
Apr-17 12.01 15.189048728
May-17 12.44 14.732319752
 Jun-17 11.5 14.669377915
Jul-17 12.24 14.111493457
Aug-17 13.43 14.319846074
Sep-17 12.79 13.877017394
Oct-17 13.79 13.805186809
Nov-17 13.99 13.267741393
Dec-17 14.08 13.450643419
-2
0
-2
0
-2
0
-2
1 Jan-18 15.43 13.021715035
an ay S ep J an Feb-18 15.55 12.940995703
M
Mar-18 15.23 12.423989328
Apr-18 15.95 12.581440765
May-18 15.47 12.166412677
Jun-18 13.63 12.076804597
Jul-18 13.74 11.580237264
Aug-18 12.59 11.712238111
Sep-18 13.41 11.311110318
Oct-18 13.84 11.212613491
Nov-18 14.14 10.7364852
Dec-18 16.22 10.843035457
Jan-19 15.65 10.45580796
Feb-19 16.64 10.348422385
Mar-19 17.28 9.8927331358
Apr-19 16.21 9.9738328027
May-19 15.17 9.6005056011
Jun-19 16.67 9.4842312787
Jul-19 15.24 9.0489810716
9 0
Aug-19 15.24 9.1046301485
20 -2
0
-2 21
n- ay ep n- Sep-19 15.18 8.7452032425
Ja M S Ja
Oct-19 15.34 8.6200401726
Nov-19 15.37 8.2052290074
Dec-19 15.1 8.2354274943
Jan-20 12.93 7.8899008839
Feb-20 11.15 7.7558490665
Mar-20 7.29 7.3614769431
Apr-20 7.49 7.3662248401
May-20 7.85 7.0345985254
Jun-20 9.14 6.8916579604
Jul-20 11.86 6.5177248789
Aug-20 14.08 6.4970221859
Sep-20 12.22 6.1792961668
Oct-20 12.27 6.0274668542
Nov-20 11.1 5.6739728147
Dec-20 12.19 5.6278195317
Jan-21 10.18 5.3239938082
Feb-21 11.06 5.1632757481
Mar-21 10.03 4.8302207505
Apr-21 9.72 4.7586168775
 Demanda de me
Datos reales y pr
(Enero 2011- Ab

48

43

38

33

28

23

18

13

3
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 J
3
Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 J
 Demanda de metales - Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA (ADR)
Datos reales y pronóstocos
(Enero 2011- Abril 2021 )

-13 Oct-13Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-1

Demanda de metales AJUSTE

-13 Oct-13Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-1

Demanda de metales AJUSTE

DR)

Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21
Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21
Según al grafico previo a la aplicación de los dos métodos de descomposición, las lineas eran paralelas
el método que se debe utilizar en el caso es de Descomposición Aditiva .

DESCOMPOSICIÓN ADITIVA
COMPONENTE ESTACIONAL

En el caso de este método, se nota una variación estacional constante con limites
de 0.25 a -0.25

SUAVIZADO

Ambos métodos no dan resultados similares pero con mayores alcanse c

TENDENCIA

Algo similar pasa con este aspecto, pues hay mucha similaridad en los result
ERROR
Cuánto no se cumplió el
MAD pronóstico el objetivo
7.309876515135
Este presenta menor error cuando en la predicción

CONCLUSIÓN
Según el primer análisis de datos antes de la aplicación nos sugeria que utilizaramos el m
consuerdan con que este método sea el que se debe de utlizar para este caso , pues
al aplicar estos dos métodos nos dicen que el método de descomposición aditiva contien
; por lo que se sugiere que la Compañía de Minas Buenaventura SAA (ADR) utilicé este mé
Hacer notar también que ambos métodos nos dieron resultados similares al utilizarlos tan
suavizados, en la tendencia y en el error ; se toma la decisión de utilizar el Método de des
Además que, la manifestación del otro metodo en el componente estacional no es adecu
, pero en el caso tiene una compocisión continua . En cambió en la aditiva si considera un

Fuente:
http://blog.flacso.edu.mx/aleale/files/2013/11/Descomp5.pdf
ión, las lineas eran paralelas por lo que ese dato nos dice que

DESCOMPOSICIÓN MULTIPLICATIVA
COMPONENTE ESTACIONAL

En el caso de este método, se nota una variación estacional constante

también con limites mayores de 0.97 a 1.009

SUAVIZADO

s pero con mayores alcanse con respecto a la multiplicativa

TENDENCIA

ucha similaridad en los resultadps pero con ciertas variaciones .

ERROR
Cuánto no se cumplió el
MAD pronóstico el objetivo
7.31425164

ugeria que utilizaramos el método de descomposición aditivo y junto a los resultados

ar para este caso , pues
composición aditiva contiene menos error al momento de el cumplimiento de los pronósticos
ura SAA (ADR) utilicé este método.
dos similares al utilizarlos tanto en el comportamiento del componente estacional, en los
n de utilizar el Método de descomposición aditiva por que nos arroja un menor error.
nente estacional no es adecueda esta debe de generarse de manera creciente o decreciente
ó en la aditiva si considera una serie temporal constante y con variaciones.

3/11/Descomp5.pdf