ANEXO 02

CUADRO N° 2.1.1. REGISTRO HISTÓRICO

ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY

Estación : ARAHUAY Longitud : 76°40'13.22''"W" Dpto. LIMA

Parámetro : PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm) Latitud : 11°37'15.28''"S" Prov. CANTA
Altitud : 2504 m.s.n.m. Dist. ARAHUAY

AÑO ENE. FEB. MAR. ABR. MAY. JUN. JUL. AGO. SET. OCT. NOV. DIC. MÁXIMO
1980 46.5 8 8 8 0 0 0 0 0.1 7.5 7.4 4 46.5
1981 15.9 14.5 10.3 6.5 0 0 0 0.2 0 3 6.2 6.2 15.9
1982 9.8 11.1 7.2 11.2 0 0 0 0.5 0 6.9 9.9 2.1 11.2
1983 14.2 23 30 21 1 0 0 0 1.2 2.1 3.1 16 30.0
1984 12.4 32.5 14.3 6.1 2.1 0 0 0 0 5.1 7 15.8 32.5
1985 4.1 14 13.8 13.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5.9 14.0
1986 14.9 11.4 10 10.1 3.9 0 0 0 0 0 8 5.1 14.9
1987 13 5 7.7 5.2 0 0 0 0 3.1 3 2.3 3.4 13.0
1988 20 16.1 10.4 10.4 4 0 0 0 0 0 2 9 20.0
1989 17 17.7 16.7 2.1 0 1 0 0 0.8 3 0 0 17.7
1990 5.3 0 5 0 2 0 0 0 0 7 3.3 22 22.0
1991 4.2 17.5 21.4 2 2 0 0 0 0 8 3.9 1.2 21.4
1992 8.2 4.8 12 0.8 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 2.1 12.0
1993 9.1 20.9 27 7 0 0 0 0 0 3.2 6 6.6 27.0
1994 12.4 16.5 11.8 7 2.1 0 0 0 0 3.9 2.5 5.7 16.5
1995 5 11.4 9 9 2.5 0 0 0 1.4 2 9.1 10.2 11.4
1996 15.5 17.3 18.5 8.5 0 0 0 0 0 0.5 0.5 5 18.5
1997 12.2 10.5 3 5.5 0 0 0 0 4 3.7 10.8 25.4 25.4
1998 14.1 26.4 30.2 6 0.3 0 0 0 0.1 4.3 3.1 7 30.2
1999 9.7 23.8 9.1 5 1.6 0 0 0 2.2 4.9 2.7 4.8 23.8
2000 20 31.7 12.7 2.8 1.3 0 0 0 0.5 3.7 1.2 4.1 31.7
2001 21.5 12.7 13.7 8.6 0 0 0 0 0 0 6.7 0 21.5
2002 8.6 27.2 16.8 9.3 0.5 0 0 0 3.1 2.1 15 4.8 27.2
2003 8.4 13.5 10.1 10 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 1.4 22.9 22.9
2004 2 25.5 15 8 0 0.1 0 0 2.2 2.5 6.2 12.5 25.5
2005 7.1 9.5 10.3 2.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 12.1 12.1
2006 19.2 19.8 15.4 5.2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.4 7.2 19.8
2007 7.5 13.7 15.7 7.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.8 3 15.7
2008 8.2 20.6 19.5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 1.7 6.5 20.6
2009 12.5 28.1 40.5 6.5 1.8 0 0 0 0.3 7.8 3.2 5 40.5
2010 9 20.2 10 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8.6 20.2
2011 10.5 9.7 8.5 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 13.9 13.9
2012 6 18.8 15.7 12.8 0 0 0 0 6.6 6.8 6.5 8.5 18.8
2013 3.9 11.2 13.3 2.5 2.6 0 0 0 0 2.3 5 11.8 13.3
2014 9.4 16.5 18 7.2 1.8 0 0 0 8.7 5 11 9 18.0
2023 20 27 16.8 24.4 8.7 10.8 2.7 4 13.6 14.8 10.8 22.2 27.0
PROMEDIO 12.1 16.9 14.7 7.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.3 3.2 4.7 8.6 16.9
DESV. EST. 7.8 7.7 7.6 4.9 1.8 1.8 0.5 0.7 2.9 3.3 3.7 6.6 7.8
MÁXIMO 46.5 32.5 40.5 24.4 8.7 10.8 2.7 4.0 13.6 14.8 15.0 25.4 46.5
MÍNIMO 2.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0
Nº Datos 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36.0
S/D: Sin Dato
FUENTE: SENAMHI.

HISTOGRAMA DEL REGISTRO HISTÓRICO

ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY

50.0
Precipitación Máxima en 24H (mm)

45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2023

Tiempo (años)
 CUADRO 2.1.4: PRUEBA DE BONDAD DE AJUSTE KOLMOGOROV - SMIRNOV
ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY
F(xm) |Fo(xm)-F(xm)| F(ym) |Fo(ym)-F(ym)| F(ym) |Fo(ym)-F(ym)| F(ym) |Fo(ym)-F(ym)| F(xm) |Fo(xm)-F(xm)|
m xm Fo(xm)
Normal Normal Log - Normal Log - Normal Pearson III Pearson III Log Pearson III Log Pearson III GEV I GEV I
1 46.50 0.972973 0.998960565 0.02599 0.990236 0.01726 0.989382 0.01641 0.985184 0.01221 0.9892 0.01626
2 40.50 0.945946 0.990383405 0.04444 0.974407 0.02846 0.971784 0.02584 0.967674 0.02173 0.9725 0.02655
3 32.50 0.918919 0.912659846 0.00626 0.909231 0.00969 0.902734 0.01619 0.904538 0.01438 0.9062 0.01269
4 31.70 0.891892 0.895976053 0.00408 0.897334 0.00544 0.890573 0.00132 0.893509 0.00162 0.8943 0.00241
5 30.20 0.864865 0.858703961 0.00616 0.871032 0.00617 0.864005 0.00086 0.869272 0.00441 0.8680 0.00317
6 30.00 0.837838 0.853123264 0.01529 0.867091 0.02925 0.860058 0.02222 0.865651 0.02781 0.8641 0.02627
7 27.20 0.810811 0.759794359 0.05102 0.799384 0.01143 0.793269 0.01754 0.803466 0.00734 0.7968 0.01400
8 27.00 0.783784 0.752079966 0.03170 0.793560 0.00978 0.787625 0.00384 0.798102 0.01432 0.7910 0.00725
9 27.00 0.756757 0.752079966 0.00468 0.793560 0.03680 0.787625 0.03087 0.798102 0.04135 0.7910 0.03428
10 25.50 0.729730 0.690268988 0.03946 0.745176 0.01545 0.740972 0.01124 0.753282 0.02355 0.7431 0.01334
11 25.40 0.702703 0.685919601 0.01678 0.741645 0.03894 0.737587 0.03488 0.750001 0.04730 0.7396 0.03687
12 23.80 0.675676 0.613167656 0.06251 0.679724 0.00405 0.678160 0.00248 0.691671 0.01600 0.6782 0.00255
13 22.90 0.648649 0.570215419 0.07843 0.640349 0.00830 0.641004 0.00765 0.654305 0.00566 0.6392 0.00941
14 22.00 0.621622 0.526414824 0.09521 0.597757 0.02387 0.600734 0.02089 0.613367 0.00825 0.5971 0.02455
15 21.50 0.594595 0.501907612 0.09269 0.572763 0.02183 0.577208 0.01739 0.589090 0.00550 0.5723 0.02226
16 21.40 0.567568 0.497002341 0.07057 0.567655 0.00009 0.572394 0.00483 0.584456 0.01689 0.5673 0.00029
17 20.60 0.540541 0.457838647 0.08270 0.525565 0.01498 0.532629 0.00791 0.542856 0.00232 0.5256 0.01490
18 20.20 0.513514 0.438385643 0.07513 0.503760 0.00975 0.512028 0.00149 0.521012 0.00750 0.5041 0.00943
19 20.00 0.486486 0.428711702 0.05777 0.492687 0.00620 0.501470 0.01498 0.509893 0.02341 0.4931 0.00666
20 19.80 0.459459 0.419080403 0.04038 0.481509 0.02205 0.490871 0.03141 0.498649 0.03919 0.4821 0.02264
21 18.80 0.432432 0.371756646 0.06068 0.424287 0.00815 0.436166 0.00373 0.440491 0.00806 0.4256 0.00683
22 18.50 0.405405 0.357894751 0.04751 0.406790 0.00138 0.419335 0.01393 0.422601 0.01720 0.4084 0.00295
23 18.00 0.378378 0.335210365 0.04317 0.377428 0.00095 0.390974 0.01260 0.391751 0.01337 0.3794 0.00104
24 17.70 0.351351 0.321876459 0.02947 0.359750 0.00840 0.373826 0.02247 0.373203 0.02185 0.3620 0.01067
25 16.50 0.324324 0.270928463 0.05340 0.289458 0.03487 0.304180 0.02014 0.298002 0.02632 0.2930 0.03137
26 15.90 0.297297 0.2470564 0.05024 0.255173 0.04212 0.269153 0.02814 0.260606 0.03669 0.2594 0.03795
27 15.70 0.270270 0.239356635 0.03091 0.243963 0.02631 0.257639 0.01263 0.248276 0.02199 0.2484 0.02189
28 14.90 0.243243 0.209908185 0.03334 0.200593 0.04265 0.212141 0.03110 0.199848 0.04340 0.2060 0.03729
29 14.00 0.216216 0.179466039 0.03675 0.155457 0.06076 0.163437 0.05278 0.149065 0.06715 0.1619 0.05436
30 13.90 0.189189 0.176263818 0.01293 0.150731 0.03846 0.158225 0.03096 0.143711 0.04548 0.1572 0.03195
31 13.30 0.162162 0.157816501 0.00435 0.123760 0.03840 0.127995 0.03417 0.113082 0.04908 0.1309 0.03130
32 13.00 0.135135 0.149086406 0.01395 0.111226 0.02391 0.113641 0.02149 0.098835 0.03630 0.1186 0.01655
33 12.10 0.108108 0.124861645 0.01675 0.077779 0.03033 0.074315 0.03379 0.060833 0.04728 0.0857 0.02244
34 12.00 0.081081 0.122350349 0.04127 0.074465 0.00662 0.070209 0.01087 0.057143 0.02394 0.0824 0.00131
35 11.40 0.054054 0.108026425 0.05397 0.056323 0.00227 0.048030 0.00602 0.037292 0.01676 0.0643 0.01026
36 11.20 0.027027 0.103531299 0.07650 0.050943 0.02392 0.041434 0.01441 0.031580 0.00455 0.0589 0.03187
X 21.46
S 8.13
CS 1.142
n 36 Dmáx 0.09521 0.06076 0.05278 0.06715 0.05436
a 0.05 Dcritico > Dmax Si se ajusta Si se ajusta Si se ajusta Si se ajusta Si se ajusta
Dcritico 0.22172 Mejor Ajuste 5 3 1 4 2
 REGISTRO HISTÓRICO
Cuadro 2.1.2: DATOS DE PRECIPITACIÓN MÁXIMA EN 24 HORAS
ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY

Nº AÑO ORDEN P24 log(P24)

1 1980 1 1 1 46.5 1.6675
2 1981 26 1 26 15.9 1.2014
3 1982 36 1 36 11.2 1.0492
4 1983 6 1 6 30.0 1.4771
5 1984 3 1 3 32.5 1.5119
6 1985 29 1 29 14.0 1.1461
7 1986 28 1 28 14.9 1.1732
8 1987 32 1 32 13.0 1.1139
9 1988 19 1 19 20.0 1.3010
10 1989 24 1 24 17.7 1.2480
11 1990 14 1 14 22.0 1.3424
12 1991 16 1 16 21.4 1.3304
13 1992 34 1 34 12.0 1.0792
14 1993 8 1 8 27.0 1.4314
15 1994 25 1 25 16.5 1.2175
16 1995 35 1 35 11.4 1.0569
17 1996 22 1 22 18.5 1.2672
18 1997 11 1 11 25.4 1.4048
19 1998 5 1 5 30.2 1.4800
20 1999 12 1 12 23.8 1.3766
21 2000 4 1 4 31.7 1.5011
22 2001 15 1 15 21.5 1.3324
23 2002 7 1 7 27.2 1.4346
24 2003 13 1 13 22.9 1.3598
25 2004 10 1 10 25.5 1.4065
26 2005 33 1 33 12.1 1.0828
27 2006 20 1 20 19.8 1.2967
28 2007 27 1 27 15.7 1.1959
29 2008 17 1 17 20.6 1.3139
30 2009 2 1 2 40.5 1.6075
31 2010 18 1 18 20.2 1.3054 Mínimo valor histórico registrado
32 2011 30 1 30 13.9 1.1430
33 2012 21 1 21 18.8 1.2742
34 2013 31 1 31 13.3 1.1239
35 2014 23 1 23 18.0 1.2553
36 2023 8 2 9 27.0 1.4314

Numero de datos n 36 36
Suma ∑ 772.6 46.9398
Máximo 46.5 1.6675
Mínimo 11.2 1.0492
Promedio x̅ 21.5 1.3039
Desviación estándar s 8.1329 0.1557
Coeficiente asimetría Cs 1.1416 0.2599
Cs/6 k 0.1903 0.0433

PRUEBA DE DATOS DUDOSOS (Método Water Resources Council)

n= 36
Kn = 2.744 *

Kn: valor recomendado, varía según el valor de n (significancia:10%)

Umbral de datos dudosos altos (xH: unid. logaritmicas)

xH = x + Kn ⋅ s xH = 1.73

Precipitación máxima aceptada

PH = 10 xH PH = 53.8 mm

Umbral de datos dudosos bajos (xL: unid. logaritmicas)

x = x + Kn ⋅ s xL = 0.88
L

Precipitación mínima aceptada

PH = 10 xL PL = 7.5 mm

Se observa que todos los valores ' P24 ' están dentro de los
Nota:
límites PH y PL,

es decir se encuentran entre 53.8 y 20.2 mm. No existen datos

dudosos.

* Referencia: Tabla 12.5.3 - Hidrología Aplicada, Ven Te Chow

 Cuadro 2.1.3: PRUEBA DE LA BONDAD DEL AJUSTE - GRÁFICA DE PROBABILIDADES

P24 log(P24)
Numero de datos: n 36
Promedio: x 21.46 1.30
Desviación estándar: s 8.13 0.16
Coeficiente asimetría: Cs 1.14 0.26
Cs/6: k 0.19 0.04

ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY
VALOR OBSERVADO NORMAL GUMBEL LOGNORMAL PEARSON III LOGPEARSON III
N T P(X≤xT)
P24 log(P24) KT ESPERADO KT ESPERADO KT ESPERADO KT ESPERADO KT ESPERADO
1 37.00 2.70% 46.5 1.6675 1.9264 37.1 9.37 2.3547 40.6 5.89 1.9264 40.2 5.89 2.3729 40.8 5.74 2.0409 41.8
2 18.50 5.41% 40.5 1.6075 1.6068 34.5 5.97 1.8034 36.1 4.37 1.6068 35.8 4.37 1.8327 36.4 4.13 1.6717 36.7
3 12.33 8.11% 32.5 1.5119 1.3978 32.8 -0.33 1.4761 33.5 -0.97 1.3978 33.2 -0.97 1.5064 33.7 -1.21 1.4355 33.7
4 9.25 10.81% 31.7 1.5011 1.2367 31.5 0.18 1.2403 31.5 0.15 1.2367 31.4 0.15 1.2687 31.8 -0.08 1.2561 31.6
5 7.40 13.51% 30.2 1.4800 1.1024 30.4 -0.23 1.0546 30.0 0.16 1.1024 29.9 0.16 1.0798 30.2 -0.04 1.1085 30.0
6 6.17 16.22% 30.0 1.4771 0.9856 29.5 0.52 0.9004 28.8 1.22 0.9856 28.7 1.22 0.9219 29.0 1.04 0.9813 28.6
7 5.29 18.92% 27.2 1.4346 0.8809 28.6 -1.43 0.7678 27.7 -0.51 0.8809 27.6 -0.51 0.7855 27.8 -0.65 0.8683 27.5
8 4.63 21.62% 27.0 1.4314 0.7850 27.8 -0.85 0.6510 26.8 0.24 0.7850 26.7 0.24 0.6648 26.9 0.13 0.7658 26.5
9 4.11 24.32% 27.0 1.4314 0.6959 27.1 -0.12 0.5461 25.9 1.10 0.6959 25.8 1.10 0.5560 26.0 1.02 0.6712 25.6
10 3.70 27.03% 25.5 1.4065 0.6120 26.4 -0.94 0.4505 25.1 0.38 0.6120 25.1 0.38 0.4566 25.2 0.33 0.5828 24.8
11 3.36 29.73% 25.4 1.4048 0.5322 25.8 -0.39 0.3622 24.4 0.99 0.5322 24.4 0.99 0.3648 24.4 0.97 0.4993 24.1
12 3.08 32.43% 23.8 1.3766 0.4556 25.2 -1.37 0.2801 23.7 0.06 0.4556 23.7 0.06 0.2792 23.7 0.07 0.4197 23.4
13 2.85 35.14% 22.9 1.3598 0.3817 24.6 -1.67 0.2028 23.1 -0.21 0.3817 23.1 -0.21 0.1986 23.1 -0.18 0.3433 22.8
14 2.64 37.84% 22.0 1.3424 0.3097 24.0 -1.98 0.1297 22.5 -0.52 0.3097 22.5 -0.52 0.1224 22.5 -0.46 0.2695 22.2
15 2.47 40.54% 21.5 1.3324 0.2394 23.4 -1.91 0.0600 21.9 -0.45 0.2394 21.9 -0.45 0.0497 21.9 -0.37 0.1977 21.6
16 2.31 43.24% 21.4 1.3304 0.1702 22.8 -1.45 -0.0068 21.4 -0.01 0.1702 21.4 -0.01 -0.0198 21.3 0.10 0.1276 21.1
17 2.18 45.95% 20.6 1.3139 0.1018 22.3 -1.69 -0.0712 20.9 -0.28 0.1018 20.9 -0.28 -0.0868 20.8 -0.16 0.0586 20.6
18 2.06 48.65% 20.2 1.3054 0.0339 21.7 -1.54 -0.1337 20.4 -0.17 0.0339 20.4 -0.17 -0.1516 20.2 -0.03 -0.0094 20.1
19 1.95 51.35% 20.0 1.3010 -0.0339 21.2 -1.19 -0.1945 19.9 0.12 -0.0339 19.9 0.12 -0.2146 19.7 0.28 -0.0769 19.6
20 1.85 54.05% 19.8 1.2967 -0.1018 20.6 -0.83 -0.2540 19.4 0.40 -0.1018 19.4 0.40 -0.2760 19.2 0.58 -0.1442 19.1
21 1.76 56.76% 18.8 1.2742 -0.1702 20.1 -1.28 -0.3125 18.9 -0.12 -0.1702 18.9 -0.12 -0.3361 18.7 0.07 -0.2115 18.7
22 1.68 59.46% 18.5 1.2672 -0.2394 19.5 -1.01 -0.3704 18.4 0.05 -0.2394 18.5 0.05 -0.3953 18.2 0.25 -0.2792 18.2
23 1.61 62.16% 18.0 1.2553 -0.3097 18.9 -0.94 -0.4278 18.0 0.02 -0.3097 18.0 0.02 -0.4538 17.8 0.23 -0.3477 17.8
24 1.54 64.86% 17.7 1.2480 -0.3817 18.4 -0.66 -0.4851 17.5 0.18 -0.3817 17.6 0.18 -0.5118 17.3 0.40 -0.4172 17.3
25 1.48 67.57% 16.5 1.2175 -0.4556 17.8 -1.26 -0.5426 17.0 -0.55 -0.4556 17.1 -0.55 -0.5696 16.8 -0.33 -0.4882 16.9
26 1.42 70.27% 15.9 1.2014 -0.5322 17.1 -1.23 -0.6006 16.6 -0.68 -0.5322 16.6 -0.68 -0.6275 16.4 -0.46 -0.5613 16.5
27 1.37 72.97% 15.7 1.1959 -0.6120 16.5 -0.78 -0.6596 16.1 -0.40 -0.6120 16.2 -0.40 -0.6859 15.9 -0.18 -0.6369 16.0
28 1.32 75.68% 14.9 1.1732 -0.6959 15.8 -0.90 -0.7200 15.6 -0.71 -0.6959 15.7 -0.71 -0.7450 15.4 -0.50 -0.7158 15.6
29 1.28 78.38% 14.0 1.1461 -0.7850 15.1 -1.08 -0.7824 15.1 -1.10 -0.7850 15.2 -1.10 -0.8053 14.9 -0.91 -0.7990 15.1
30 1.23 81.08% 13.9 1.1430 -0.8809 14.3 -0.40 -0.8476 14.6 -0.67 -0.8809 14.7 -0.67 -0.8675 14.4 -0.51 -0.8877 14.6
31 1.19 83.78% 13.3 1.1239 -0.9856 13.4 -0.15 -0.9166 14.0 -0.71 -0.9856 14.1 -0.71 -0.9323 13.9 -0.58 -0.9837 14.1
32 1.16 86.49% 13.0 1.1139 -1.1024 12.5 0.50 -0.9911 13.4 -0.40 -1.1024 13.6 -0.40 -1.0007 13.3 -0.32 -1.0898 13.6
33 1.12 89.19% 12.1 1.0828 -1.2367 11.4 0.70 -1.0735 12.7 -0.63 -1.2367 12.9 -0.63 -1.0744 12.7 -0.62 -1.2103 13.0
34 1.09 91.89% 12.0 1.0792 -1.3978 10.1 1.91 -1.1683 12.0 0.04 -1.3978 12.2 0.04 -1.1564 12.1 -0.06 -1.3531 12.4
35 1.06 94.59% 11.4 1.0569 -1.6068 8.4 3.01 -1.2850 11.0 0.39 -1.6068 11.3 0.39 -1.2525 11.3 0.13 -1.5350 11.6
36 1.03 97.30% 11.2 1.0492 -1.9264 5.8 5.41 -1.4511 9.7 1.54 -1.9264 10.1 1.54 -1.3785 10.2 0.95 -1.8065 10.5

T: Periodo de retorno en años

P: Probabilidad de ocurrencia
 AJUSTE ESTADISTICO PARA LA DISTRIBUCIÓN NORMAL - ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY
50.0
45.0
Pmax 24 hrs (mm)

40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
Valor Observado Normal
10.0
5.0
0.0
-2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

Variable reducida KT

AJUSTE ESTADISTICO PARA LA DISTRIBUCIÓN GUMBEL - ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY

50.0
45.0
40.0
Pmax 24 hrs (mm)

35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0 Valor Observado Gumbel
5.0
0.0
-2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

Variable reducida KT

AJUSTE ESTADISTICO PARA LA DISTRIBUCIÓN LOG NORMAL - ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY

50.0
45.0
40.0
Pmax 24 hrs (mm)

35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0 Valor Observado LogNormal
5.0
0.0
-2.50 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
Variable reducida KT

AJUSTE ESTADISTICO PARA LA DISTRIBUCIÓN PEARSON TIPO III - ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY

50.0
45.0
40.0
Pmax 24 hrs (mm)

35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
Valor Observado
10.0
Pearson Tipo III
5.0
0.0
-2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
Variable reducida KT

AJUSTE ESTADISTICO PARA LA DISTRIBUCIÓN LOG PEARSON TIPO III - ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY
50.0
45.0
40.0
Pmax 24 hrs (mm)

35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
Valor Observado
10.0
Log Pearson Tipo III
5.0
0.0
-2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50
Variable reducida KT
 Cuadro 2.1.5: PRECIPITACIONES MÁXIMAS ANUALES EN 24 HORAS

ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY
Promedio : x = 21.461 y= 1.304 Coeficiente de corrección de Pmax por Nº de lecturas (OMM)
Desviación estándar : s= 8.133 sy = 0.156 f (2 lecturas) = 1.13
Cs/6 : k= 0.190 k= 0.043
T DISTRIB. NORMAL DISTRIB. GUMBELL DISTRIB. LOGNORMAL DISTRIB. PEARSON III DISTRIB. LOG PEARSON III PMAX PMAX (corregida)
P(X≤xT)
(años) KT xT KT xT KT xT 10^xT KT xT KT Xt 10^xT mm mm
2 0.500 0.0000 21.5 -0.1643 20.1 0.00 1.3039 20.1 -0.1833 20.0 -0.0432 1.2972 19.8 21.5 24.3
3 0.667 0.4307 25.0 0.2538 23.5 0.43 1.3709 23.5 0.2518 23.5 0.3940 1.3652 23.2 25.0 28.2
5 0.800 0.8416 28.3 0.7195 27.3 0.84 1.4349 27.2 0.7356 27.4 0.8262 1.4325 27.1 28.3 32.0
10 0.900 1.2816 31.9 1.3046 32.1 1.28 1.5034 31.9 1.3337 32.3 1.3058 1.5072 32.2 31.9 36.0
20 0.950 1.6449 34.8 1.8658 36.6 1.64 1.5600 36.3 1.8945 36.9 1.7152 1.5709 37.2 34.8 39.4
25 0.960 1.7507 35.7 2.0438 38.1 1.75 1.5764 37.7 2.0697 38.3 1.8367 1.5898 38.9 35.7 40.3
50 0.980 2.0537 38.2 2.5923 42.5 2.05 1.6236 42.0 2.6024 42.6 2.1906 1.6449 44.1 38.2 43.1
100 0.990 2.3263 40.4 3.1367 47.0 2.33 1.6661 46.4 3.1220 46.9 2.5162 1.6956 49.6 40.4 45.6
200 0.995 2.5758 42.4 3.6791 51.4 2.58 1.7049 50.7 3.6323 51.0 2.8205 1.7430 55.3 42.4 47.9
300 0.997 2.7131 43.5 3.9959 54.0 2.71 1.7263 53.2 3.9276 53.4 2.9903 1.7694 58.8 43.5 49.2
500 0.998 2.8782 44.9 4.3947 57.2 2.88 1.7520 56.5 4.2970 56.4 3.1972 1.8016 63.3 44.9 50.7
1000 0.999 3.0902 46.6 4.9355 61.6 3.09 1.7850 61.0 4.7945 60.5 3.4667 1.8436 69.8 46.6 52.7

PRECIPITACION MAXIMA ANUAL PARA DIFERENTES PERIODOS DE RETORNO

60.0

52.7
50.0 50.7
47.9 49.2
45.6
Precipitacion en mm

43.1
40.0 39.4 40.3
36.0
32.0
30.0
28.2
24.3 y = 4.3665ln(x) + 24.569
20.0 R² = 0.9685

10.0

0.0
1 10 100 1000

Periodo de Retorno en años

 Cuadro 2.1.6: DETERMINACIÓN DE COEFICIENTES REGIONALES MÉTODO IILA - SENAMHI - UNI
ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY

Formulaciones hidrológicas

Siendo:
t: duración de lluvia diaria (horas) Pt: precipitación (mm)
T: periodo de de retorno en años It: intensidad de la lluvia (mm/hora)

Para t entre 3 ~ 24 horas Para t < 3 horas

n
Pt = a (1 + K log T) tn Pt = a (1 + K log T) (t+b)
n-1 n-1
It = a (1 + K log T) t It = a (1 + K log T) (t+b)

Región Hidrológica y parámetros

Región hidrológica: 1238 SIERRA

Altitud media: Y= 2504 msnm
Duración de lluvia diaria (Perú): tg= 15.2 horas
Parámetro de zona: eg= 136.5 (adimensional)
Parámetro de intensidad : a= 5.2 mm
Parámetro de frecuencia: K= 0.17 (adimensional)
Parámetro de duración: n= 0.303 (adimensional)
Parámetro de duración por región: b= 0.5 horas Sierra

Coeficientes regionales para determinar precipitaciones e intensidades

para diferentes tiempos de retorno

Tiempo Coeficientes Regionales

duración Pt / P24H It / I 24H

4Precipitación 10 min 0.34 12.15

Pt/P24H=((t+b)/24)n 20 min 0.36 10.40
Pt/P24H=(t/24)n 30 min 0.38 9.16
40 min 0.40 8.23
4Intensidad 50 min 0.42 7.50
It/I24H=((t+b)/24)(n-1) 1.0 h 0.43 6.91
It/I24H=(t/24)(n-1) 1.5 h 0.47 5.65
2.0 h 0.50 4.84
4.0 h 0.58 3.49
6.0 h 0.66 2.63
7.0 h 0.69 2.36
8.0 h 0.72 2.15
10.0 h 0.77 1.84
11.0 h 0.79 1.72
12.0 h 0.81 1.62
24.0 h 1.00 1.00

*Normas Legales OS. 060- Anexo Nº1 Hidrología Tabla 2.a,3.a y 3.b
 CUADRO 2.1.7: PRECIPITACIÓN DE DISEÑO PARA DURACIONES MENORES A 24 HORAS
IILA-UNI-SENAMHI
(mm)

ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY
DURACIÓN PERÍODO DE RETORNO (años)
Hr min 2 5 10 20 25 50 100 200 500
0.17 10.00 8.19 10.80 12.16 13.29 13.62 14.56 15.41 16.18 17.12
0.33 20.00 8.76 11.55 13.02 14.22 14.57 15.58 16.48 17.31 18.32
0.50 30.00 9.26 12.21 13.75 15.03 15.40 16.46 17.42 18.30 19.36
0.67 40.00 9.70 12.79 14.41 15.75 16.14 17.25 18.25 19.17 20.28
0.83 50.00 10.10 13.32 15.01 16.40 16.80 17.96 19.01 19.96 21.12
1.00 60.00 10.47 13.81 15.55 16.99 17.41 18.62 19.70 20.69 21.89
1.50 90.00 11.42 15.06 16.97 18.54 19.00 20.31 21.49 22.57 23.88
2.00 120.00 12.22 16.12 18.16 19.84 20.33 21.73 22.99 24.15 25.55
4.00 240.00 14.09 18.59 20.93 22.87 23.44 25.06 26.51 27.85 29.46
6.00 360.00 15.93 21.02 23.67 25.87 26.50 28.33 29.98 31.49 33.31
7.00 420.00 16.70 22.02 24.80 27.10 27.77 29.69 31.41 32.99 34.90
8.00 480.00 17.38 22.93 25.83 28.22 28.92 30.91 32.71 34.35 36.35
10.00 600.00 18.60 24.53 27.63 30.19 30.94 33.08 35.00 36.76 38.89
11.00 660.00 19.15 25.25 28.44 31.08 31.85 34.05 36.02 37.83 40.03
12.00 720.00 19.66 25.93 29.20 31.91 32.70 34.96 36.99 38.84 41.10
24.00 1440.00 24.25 31.99 36.03 39.37 40.34 43.13 45.63 47.92 50.70
 CUADRO 2.1.8: INTENSIDADES DE DISEÑO PARA DURACIONES MENORES A 24 HORAS
(mm/hr)

ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY
DURACIÓN PERÍODO DE RETORNO (años)
Hr min 2 5 10 20 25 50 100 200 500
0.17 10.00 12.28 16.20 18.25 19.94 20.43 21.84 23.11 24.27 25.68
0.33 20.00 10.51 13.87 15.62 17.07 17.49 18.69 19.78 20.77 21.98
0.50 30.00 9.26 12.21 13.75 15.03 15.40 16.46 17.42 18.30 19.36
0.67 40.00 8.32 10.97 12.35 13.50 13.83 14.79 15.65 16.43 17.38
0.83 50.00 7.58 9.99 11.26 12.30 12.60 13.47 14.26 14.97 15.84
1.00 60.00 6.98 9.20 10.37 11.33 11.61 12.41 13.13 13.79 14.59
1.50 90.00 5.71 7.53 8.48 9.27 9.50 10.16 10.75 11.29 11.94
2.00 120.00 4.89 6.45 7.26 7.94 8.13 8.69 9.20 9.66 10.22
4.00 240.00 3.52 4.65 5.23 5.72 5.86 6.26 6.63 6.96 7.37
6.00 360.00 2.66 3.50 3.95 4.31 4.42 4.72 5.00 5.25 5.55
7.00 420.00 2.39 3.15 3.54 3.87 3.97 4.24 4.49 4.71 4.99
8.00 480.00 2.17 2.87 3.23 3.53 3.61 3.86 4.09 4.29 4.54
10.00 600.00 1.86 2.45 2.76 3.02 3.09 3.31 3.50 3.68 3.89
11.00 660.00 1.74 2.30 2.59 2.83 2.90 3.10 3.27 3.44 3.64
12.00 720.00 1.64 2.16 2.43 2.66 2.72 2.91 3.08 3.24 3.42
24.00 1440.00 1.01 1.33 1.50 1.64 1.68 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.11

CURVA INTENSIDAD-DURACION-FRECUENCIA
ESTACIÓN: ARAHUAY
30.0

2
25.0
Intensidad de precipitacion (mm/h)

20.0 10

20

15.0 25

50
10.0
100

200
5.0
500

0.0
0.0 300.0 600.0 900.0 1200.0 1500.0
Duracion (min)

CURVA INTENSIDAD-DURACION-FRECUENCIA
1.7496 0.1227 I: Intensidad máxima (mm/h)

10 T T: Período de retorno en años

I = 0.52 t: Duración de la precipitación (min)

t
 Cuadro 2.1.9: HIETOGRAMA DE PRECIPITACIÓN DE DISEÑO PARA TIEMPO DE RETORNO DE 140 AÑOS
ESTACIÓN ARAHUAY

METODO DEL BLOQUE ALTERNO

PROFUNDIDA PROFUNDIDAD
DURACION INTENSIDAD TIEMPO PRECIPITACION
ACUMULADA INCREMENTAL
min mm/hr mm mm min mm
1 5 44.713 3.73 3.726 0-5 0.35
2 10 31.210 5.20 1.476 5-10 0.37
3 15 25.291 6.32 1.121 10-15 0.38
4 20 21.785 7.26 0.939 15-20 0.41
5 25 19.404 8.09 0.823 20-25 0.43
6 30 17.653 8.83 0.742 25-30 0.47
7 35 16.297 9.51 0.680 30-35 0.51
8 40 15.206 10.14 0.631 35-40 0.56
9 45 14.305 10.73 0.591 40-45 0.63
10 50 13.544 11.29 0.558 45-50 0.74
11 55 12.891 11.82 0.530 50-55 0.94
12 60 12.322 12.32 0.505 55-60 1.48
13 65 11.821 12.81 0.484 60-65 3.73
14 70 11.375 13.27 0.465 65-70 1.12
15 75 10.975 13.72 0.448 70-75 0.82
16 80 10.614 14.15 0.433 75-80 0.68
17 85 10.286 14.57 0.419 80-85 0.59
18 90 9.985 14.978 0.406 85-90 0.53
19 95 9.709 15.37 0.395 90-95 0.48
20 100 9.454 15.76 0.384 95-100 0.45
21 105 9.218 16.13 0.374 100-105 0.42
22 110 8.998 16.50 0.365 105-110 0.39
23 115 8.793 16.85 0.357 110-115 0.37
24 120 8.601 17.20 0.349 115-120 0.36
286.531

Curva Intensidad - Duración - Frecuencia (IDF)

1.7496 0.1227 I: Intensidad máxima (mm/h)

I = 10 T T: Período de retorno en años = 140

0.52 t: Duración de la precipitación (min)

HIETOGRAMA DE PRECIPITACIÓN DE DISEÑO PARA TR = 140 AÑOS

4.00
3.50
Precipitación (mm)

3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
0-5

5-10

10-15

15-20

20-25

25-30

30-35

35-40

40-45

45-50

50-55

55-60

60-65

65-70

70-75

75-80

80-85

85-90

90-95

95-100

100-105

105-110

110-115

115-120

Tiempo (min)