Chocoberry Enero

Ingresos S/ 100,000.00
Costos de venta:
Costos de producción(materia prima) S/ 29,500.00
Costos fijos S/ 21,470.00
Utilidad bruta S/ 49,030.00

Costos fijos
Alquiler S/ 7,000.00
Salarios S/ 12,700.00
Electricidad S/ 1,000.00
agua S/ 650.00
Internet S/ 120.00
S/ 21,470.00

Costos de materia prima S/ 29,500.00

TICKET PROMEDIO

VENTA TOTAL S/ 100,000.00

CLIENTES/PEDIDOS (MES) 1653

TP S/ 60.50
% Febrero % Marzo % Abril

100.0% S/ 1.00 100.0% S/ 1.00 100.0% S/ 100,000.00

29.5% S/ - 0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ -

21.5% S/ - 0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ -
49.0% #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!

21.47%
32.60%
59.15%
4.66% S/ 1,770.00
3.03%
0.56%

29.50%

S/ 18.00
% Mayo % Junio % Julio

100.0% S/ 1.00 100.0% S/ 1.00 100.0% S/ 1.00

0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ -

0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ -
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
% Agosto % Septiembre % Octubre

100.0% S/ 1.00 100.0% S/ 1.00 100.0% S/ 1.00

0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ -

0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ -
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
% Noviembre % Diciembre %
100.0% S/ 1.00 100.0% S/ 1.00 100.0%

0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ - 0.0%

0.0% S/ - 0.0% S/ - 0.0%
#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
Meses Miles S/ Previsión(Miles S/) Columna1
Apr-23 100
May-23 130
Jun-23 100
Jul-23 145
Aug-23 110
Sep-23 120
Oct-23 100
Nov-23 90
Dec-23 160
Jan-24 107
Feb-24 117
Mar-24 114
Apr-24 95
May-24 152
Jun-24 108
Jul-24 117
Aug-24 115
Sep-24 96
Oct-24 153
Nov-24 108
Dec-24 118
Jan-25 115
Feb-25 96
Mar-25 153
Apr-25 108 2152
Estadística Valor 180

Alpha 0.2510
160
Beta 0.0010
Gamma 0.2500 140
MASE 0.3567
120
SMAPE 0.0990
MAE 11.1462 100
RMSE 15.7040
80

60

40

20

0
Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23 Oct-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-2

Miles S/ Previsión

%INCREMENTO 15.00% % INCREMENTO ESCENARIOS

15% MODERADO
30% OPTIMISTA
10% PESIMISTA

ENE 0.94 169

FEB 0.90 162
MAR 1.13 203
ABR 0.81 145
MAY 1.29 232
JUN 0.92 165
JUL 0.99 178
AGO 0.98 175
SEP 0.82 146
OCT 1.30 233
NOV 0.92 165
DIC 1.00 180
2,152
ct-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Oct-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Apr-25

Miles S/ Previsión(Miles S/)

DATOS HISTORICOS (Miles S/.):

AÑO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY

2023 100 130
2024 107 117 114 95 152
2025 115 96 153
PROMEDIO 111 107 134 95 152

PROMEDIO MENSUAL 118

IND. ESTACIONALIDAD 0.94 0.90 1.13 0.81 1.29

Meses Miles S/
Apr-23 100
May-23 130
Jun-23 100
Jul-23 145
Aug-23 110
Sep-23 120
Oct-23 100
Nov-23 90
Dec-23 160
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Apr-24
May-24
Jun-24
Jul-24
Aug-24 ENE 0.94 0
Sep-24 FEB 0.90
Oct-24 MAR 1.13
Nov-24 ABR 0.81
Dec-24 MAY 1.29
Jan-25 JUN 0.92
Feb-25 JUL 0.99
Mar-25 AGO 0.98
Apr-25 SEP 0.82
May-25 OCT 1.30
Jun-25 NOV 0.92
Jul-25 DIC 1.00
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
Nov-25
Dec-25
JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC
100 145 110 120 100 90 160
108 117 115 96 153 108 118

108 117 115 96 153 108 118

0.92 0.99 0.98 0.82 1.30 0.92 1.00

IND. ESTACIONALIDAD
1.40

1.20

1.00

0.80

0.60

0.40

0.20

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
TOTAL AÑO
1055
3424

12.00
 Costos Fijos Mensuales
Descripción Importe
Alquiler de oficina S/ 7,000.00
Salarios S/ 12,700.00 Cantidad de Equilibrio: 530
Agua, luz, internet S/ 1,770.00
Total CF: S/ 21,470.00
Ingreso de Equilibrio S/ 32,072.47
Costos Variables x unidad
Descripción Importe
Materias Primas p/u S/ 20.00
Total CVxUnidad: S/ 20.00

Precio de venta x Un. S/ 60.50

Unidades vendidas costo total IngresoxVentas

0 S/ 21,470.00 0
1 S/ 21,490.00 60.5
2 S/ 21,510.00 121
3 S/ 21,530.00 181.5
4 S/ 21,550.00 242
5 S/ 21,570.00 302.5
6 S/ 21,590.00 363
7 S/ 21,610.00 423.5
8 S/ 21,630.00 484
9 S/ 21,650.00 544.5
10 S/ 21,670.00 605
11 S/ 21,690.00 665.5
12 S/ 21,710.00 726
13 S/ 21,730.00 786.5
14 S/ 21,750.00 847
15 S/ 21,770.00 907.5
16 S/ 21,790.00 968
17 S/ 21,810.00 1028.5
18 S/ 21,830.00 1089
19 S/ 21,850.00 1149.5
20 S/ 21,870.00 1210
21 S/ 21,890.00 1270.5
22 S/ 21,910.00 1331
23 S/ 21,930.00 1391.5
24 S/ 21,950.00 1452
25 S/ 21,970.00 1512.5
26 S/ 21,990.00 1573
27 S/ 22,010.00 1633.5
28 S/ 22,030.00 1694
29 S/ 22,050.00 1754.5
30 S/ 22,070.00 1815
31 S/ 22,090.00 1875.5
32 S/ 22,110.00 1936
33 S/ 22,130.00 1996.5
34 S/ 22,150.00 2057
35 S/ 22,170.00 2117.5
36 S/ 22,190.00 2178
37 S/ 22,210.00 2238.5
38 S/ 22,230.00 2299
39 S/ 22,250.00 2359.5
40 S/ 22,270.00 2420
41 S/ 22,290.00 2480.5
42 S/ 22,310.00 2541
43 S/ 22,330.00 2601.5
44 S/ 22,350.00 2662
45 S/ 22,370.00 2722.5
46 S/ 22,390.00 2783
47 S/ 22,410.00 2843.5
48 S/ 22,430.00 2904
49 S/ 22,450.00 2964.5
50 S/ 22,470.00 3025
51 S/ 22,490.00 3085.5
52 S/ 22,510.00 3146
53 S/ 22,530.00 3206.5
54 S/ 22,550.00 3267
55 S/ 22,570.00 3327.5
56 S/ 22,590.00 3388
57 S/ 22,610.00 3448.5
58 S/ 22,630.00 3509
59 S/ 22,650.00 3569.5
60 S/ 22,670.00 3630
61 S/ 22,690.00 3690.5
62 S/ 22,710.00 3751
63 S/ 22,730.00 3811.5
64 S/ 22,750.00 3872
65 S/ 22,770.00 3932.5
66 S/ 22,790.00 3993
67 S/ 22,810.00 4053.5
 68 S/ 22,830.00 4114
69 S/ 22,850.00 4174.5
70 S/ 22,870.00 4235
71 S/ 22,890.00 4295.5
72 S/ 22,910.00 4356
73 S/ 22,930.00 4416.5
74 S/ 22,950.00 4477
75 S/ 22,970.00 4537.5
76 S/ 22,990.00 4598
77 S/ 23,010.00 4658.5
78 S/ 23,030.00 4719
79 S/ 23,050.00 4779.5
80 S/ 23,070.00 4840
81 S/ 23,090.00 4900.5
82 S/ 23,110.00 4961
83 S/ 23,130.00 5021.5
84 S/ 23,150.00 5082
85 S/ 23,170.00 5142.5
86 S/ 23,190.00 5203
87 S/ 23,210.00 5263.5
88 S/ 23,230.00 5324
89 S/ 23,250.00 5384.5
90 S/ 23,270.00 5445
91 S/ 23,290.00 5505.5
92 S/ 23,310.00 5566
93 S/ 23,330.00 5626.5
94 S/ 23,350.00 5687
95 S/ 23,370.00 5747.5
96 S/ 23,390.00 5808
97 S/ 23,410.00 5868.5
98 S/ 23,430.00 5929
99 S/ 23,450.00 5989.5
100 S/ 23,470.00 6050
101 S/ 23,490.00 6110.5
102 S/ 23,510.00 6171
103 S/ 23,530.00 6231.5
104 S/ 23,550.00 6292
105 S/ 23,570.00 6352.5
106 S/ 23,590.00 6413
107 S/ 23,610.00 6473.5
108 S/ 23,630.00 6534
109 S/ 23,650.00 6594.5
110 S/ 23,670.00 6655
111 S/ 23,690.00 6715.5
112 S/ 23,710.00 6776
113 S/ 23,730.00 6836.5
114 S/ 23,750.00 6897
115 S/ 23,770.00 6957.5
116 S/ 23,790.00 7018
117 S/ 23,810.00 7078.5
118 S/ 23,830.00 7139
119 S/ 23,850.00 7199.5
120 S/ 23,870.00 7260
121 S/ 23,890.00 7320.5
122 S/ 23,910.00 7381
123 S/ 23,930.00 7441.5
124 S/ 23,950.00 7502
125 S/ 23,970.00 7562.5
126 S/ 23,990.00 7623
127 S/ 24,010.00 7683.5
128 S/ 24,030.00 7744
129 S/ 24,050.00 7804.5
130 S/ 24,070.00 7865
131 S/ 24,090.00 7925.5
132 S/ 24,110.00 7986
133 S/ 24,130.00 8046.5
134 S/ 24,150.00 8107
135 S/ 24,170.00 8167.5
136 S/ 24,190.00 8228
137 S/ 24,210.00 8288.5
138 S/ 24,230.00 8349
139 S/ 24,250.00 8409.5
140 S/ 24,270.00 8470
141 S/ 24,290.00 8530.5
142 S/ 24,310.00 8591
143 S/ 24,330.00 8651.5
144 S/ 24,350.00 8712
145 S/ 24,370.00 8772.5
146 S/ 24,390.00 8833
147 S/ 24,410.00 8893.5
148 S/ 24,430.00 8954
149 S/ 24,450.00 9014.5
150 S/ 24,470.00 9075
151 S/ 24,490.00 9135.5
152 S/ 24,510.00 9196
153 S/ 24,530.00 9256.5
154 S/ 24,550.00 9317
155 S/ 24,570.00 9377.5
156 S/ 24,590.00 9438
 1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Series1 Series3
Pronósticos de la Demanda
Método Mínimos cuadrados y  a b* X N=

Año Ventas X x2 X.Y Pronósticos

a
y =
2024 15600000 -7 49 -109200000 15,600,000 N
2025 21216000 -5 25 -106080000 21,216,000
2026
2027
26832000
32448000
-3
-1
9
1
-80496000
-32448000
26,832,000
32,448,000 b
 xy =
2028 38064000 1 1 38064000 38,064,000 x 2
Ventas reales
2029 43680000 3 9 131040000 43,680,000 71500000
2030 49296000 5 25 246480000 49,296,000
61500000
2031 54912000 7 49 384384000 54,912,000
2032 9 60,528,000 51500000

Sumatoria: 282,048,000 9 168 471,744,000 41500000

5616000 31500000
Pronóstico Función Excel =
0.36
21500000

1 11500000

1500000
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
 Serie Impar Serie par
8 X= 1 -2 1 -5
2 -1 2 -3
35,256,000.0 3 0 3 -1
4 1 4 1
5 2 5 3

2,808,000.00
Ventas reales y línea de tendencia
1500000

1500000

1500000

1500000 Ventas
Pronósticos
1500000 60,528,000
1500000

1500000

1500000
2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
15600000