Favorable Desfavorable

Estado de la naturaleza 0.6 0.4

Estudio MAI Estudio I&W

Favorable Desfavorable Favorable
Exitoso 0.7 0.4 Exitoso 0.9
No exitoso 0.3 0.6 No exitoso 0.1

Probabilidades I&W
Probabilidades MAI P(Exitoso) 0.62
P(Exitoso) 0.58 P(No exitoso) 0.38
P(No exitoso) 0.42

Probabilidades 2 I&W
Probabilidades 2 MAI P(F|E) 0.871
P(F|E) 0.724 P(D|E) 0.129
P(D|E) 0.276 P(F|NE) 0.158
P(F|NE) 0.429 P(D|NE) 0.842
P(D|NE) 0.571
Desfavorable
0.2
0.8
For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial Version, For Evaluation Only

MAI

-100000 600200

Realizar Estudio
1
0 600200

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I&W

-300000 470040

2
700000

Invertir

-500000 700000

Sin Estudio
1
0 700000

No invertir

0 0

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0.724 www.TreePlan.com
Exitoso
1400000
Invertir 2000000 1400000

-500000 848000 0.276

0.58 No exitoso
Favorable -600000
1 0 -600000
0 848000

No invertir
-100000
0 -100000

0.429
Exitoso
1400000
Invertir 2000000 1400000

-500000 258000 0.571

0.42 No exitoso
Desfavorable -600000
1 0 -600000
0 258000

No invertir
-100000
0 -100000

0.871
Exitoso
1200000

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Invertir 2000000 1200000

-500000 942000 0.129

0.62 No exitoso
Favorable -800000
1 0 -800000
0 942000

No invertir
-300000
0 -300000

0.158
Exitoso
1200000
Invertir 2000000 1200000

-500000 -484000 0.842

0.38 No exitoso
Desfavorable -800000
2 0 -800000
0 -300000

No invertir
-300000
0 -300000

0.6
Favorable
1500000
2000000 1500000

0.4
Desfavorable
-500000
0 -500000

0
For Evaluation Only

TreePlan Trial, For Evaluation Onlyfile:///conversion/tmp/activity_task_scratch/676789989.xlsx

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For Evaluation Only

ID Name Value
0 0 TreePlan 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
2 6
0 7
0 8
0 9
0 10
25 11
26 12
27 13
28 14
0 15
0 16
0 17
0 18
0 19
0 20
0 21
0 22
0 23
0 24
25
26
27
28

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Prob Pred Kind NS S1 S2 S3 S4

0 0D 2 1 2 0 0
0 0D 2 3 4 0 0
0 0D 2 25 26 0 0
0 1E 2 5 6 0 0
0 1E 2 15 16 0 0
3D 2 7 8 0 0
3D 2 11 12 0 0
0 5E 2 9 10 0 0
0 5T 0 0 0 0 0
7T 0 0 0 0 0
7T 0 0 0 0 0
0 6E 2 13 14 0 0
0 6T 0 0 0 0 0
11 T 0 0 0 0 0
11 T 0 0 0 0 0
4D 2 17 18 0 0
4D 2 21 22 0 0
0 15 E 2 19 20 0 0
0 15 T 0 0 0 0 0
17 T 0 0 0 0 0
17 T 0 0 0 0 0
0 16 E 2 23 24 0 0
0 16 T 0 0 0 0 0
21 T 0 0 0 0 0
21 T 0 0 0 0 0
0 2E 2 27 28 0 0
0 2T 0 0 0 0 0
25 T 0 0 0 0 0
25 T 0 0 0 0 0

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S5 Row Col Mark

0 49 1 1
0 30 5 1
0 68 5 1
0 15 9 1
0 45 9 1
0 8 13 1
0 23 13 1
0 4 17 1
0 12 17 1
0 2 21 1
0 7 21 1
0 19 17 1
0 27 17 1
0 17 21 1
0 22 21 1
0 38 13 1
0 53 13 1
0 34 17 1
0 42 17 1
0 32 21 1
0 37 21 1
0 49 17 1
0 57 17 1
0 47 21 1
0 52 21 1
0 64 9 1
0 72 9 1
0 62 13 1
0 67 13 1

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¿Necesita Steve información adicional de Investine and Walker?
No, porque ya nos dan la información necesaria para las probabilidades

¿Qué recomendaría?
Como se puede observar con el árbol, no realizar el estudio es la mejor opción, sin embargo, con datos, MAI es la mejor opción