Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
ANGELA R - ENTREGA2 - Inv - Operaciones
ANGELA R - ENTREGA2 - Inv - Operaciones
Periodo Demanda
ene-01 208
feb-01 203 Gráfico demanda a lo largo del tiempo
mar-01 344 1400
abr-01 194
1200
may-01 125
jun-01 179 1000
jul-01 249
800
ago-01 303
sep-01 491 600
oct-01 652 400
nov-01 701
dic-01 898 200
ene-02 214 0
feb-02 220 ene-01 ene-03 ene-05 ene-07 ene-09 ene-11 ene-13 en
mar-02 352
abr-02 203
may-02 127
jun-02 193
jul-02 274
ago-02 315
sep-02 528
oct-02 668
nov-02 728
dic-02 910
ene-03 215
feb-03 227
mar-03 362
abr-03 201
may-03 144
jun-03 198
jul-03 287
ago-03 324
sep-03 549
oct-03 683
nov-03 731
dic-03 947
ene-04 226
feb-04 230
mar-04 373
abr-04 212
may-04 147
jun-04 212
jul-04 296
ago-04 349
sep-04 567
oct-04 719
nov-04 766
dic-04 967
ene-05 237
feb-05 236
mar-05 394
abr-05 221
may-05 141
jun-05 234
jul-05 308
ago-05 358
sep-05 575
oct-05 737
nov-05 784
dic-05 990
ene-06 240
feb-06 242
mar-06 399
abr-06 245
may-06 153
jun-06 254
jul-06 333
ago-06 366
sep-06 609
oct-06 749
nov-06 793
dic-06 1005
ene-07 252
feb-07 258
mar-07 418
abr-07 248
may-07 158
jun-07 259
jul-07 348
ago-07 375
sep-07 626
oct-07 763
nov-07 820
dic-07 1018
ene-08 262
feb-08 278
mar-08 427
abr-08 265
may-08 154
jun-08 286
jul-08 355
ago-08 400
sep-08 637
oct-08 793
nov-08 843
dic-08 1031
ene-09 281
feb-09 270
mar-09 436
abr-09 269
may-09 172
jun-09 290
jul-09 368
ago-09 425
sep-09 667
oct-09 805
nov-09 851
dic-09 1057
ene-10 289
feb-10 290
mar-10 447
abr-10 283
may-10 174
jun-10 315
jul-10 380
ago-10 440
sep-10 672
oct-10 832
nov-10 890
dic-10 1089
ene-11 297
feb-11 300
mar-11 447
abr-11 298
may-11 177
jun-11 324
jul-11 401
ago-11 455
sep-11 691
oct-11 842
nov-11 904
dic-11 1107
ene-12 313
feb-12 300
mar-12 451
abr-12 305
may-12 172
jun-12 350
jul-12 425
ago-12 453
sep-12 717
oct-12 874
nov-12 919
dic-12 1123
ene-13 322
feb-13 323
mar-13 479
abr-13 300
may-13 190
jun-13 354
jul-13 441
ago-13 481
sep-13 732
oct-13 894
nov-13 939
dic-13 1130
ene-14 323
feb-14 323
mar-14 470
abr-14 319
may-14 183
jun-14 377
jul-14 443
ago-14 480
sep-14 764
oct-14 913
nov-14 958
dic-14 1164
ene-15 349
feb-15 349
mar-15 500
abr-15 322
may-15 192
jun-15 378
jul-15 458
ago-15 513
sep-15 789
oct-15 939
nov-15 983
dic-15 1178
AÑO
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
252 262 281 289 297 313 322
258 278 270 290 300 300 323
418 427 436 447 447 451 479
248 265 269 283 298 305 300
158 154 172 174 177 172 190
259 286 290 315 324 350 354
348 355 368 380 401 425 441
375 400 425 440 455 453 481
626 637 667 672 691 717 732
763 793 805 832 842 874 894
820 843 851 890 904 919 939
1018 1031 1057 1089 1107 1123 1130
**Todos los datos en Giga
800
600
209.47
206.11 400
349.13
200.82
133.49 200
188.85
260.57
0
316.68 enero-01 enero-02 enero-03 enero-04 enero-05 enero-06 enero-07 enero-08 enero-09 enero-10 enero-11
506.28
669.77
720.49
919.56
235.40
240.44
371.90
222.42
145.72
211.33
291.17
331.68
543.29
683.00
742.24
923.55
229.54
241.52
376.15
215.45
158.22
212.05
301.02
337.95
563.07
697.13
746.27
962.40
241.80
246.15
389.06
228.52
163.80
228.15
312.63
365.25
582.91
733.90
780.20
980.92
251.15
249.85
407.19
233.84
154.72
247.39
321.66
372.27
589.34
752.05
798.96
1004.56
254.96
257.20
414.62
260.56
168.27
268.73
346.95
380.04
622.10
762.09
806.10
1018.44
265.42
271.18
431.23
261.38
171.82
272.49
361.97
388.94
640.29
777.24
834.46
1032.89
277.07
293.15
441.53
279.22
168.37
300.08
368.87
413.41
650.83
806.89
856.49
1044.24
294.47
283.93
450.37
283.67
186.66
304.61
383.14
439.80
681.36
819.04
865.65
1072.22
305.15
305.89
462.93
298.49
189.94
330.23
395.09
455.28
687.58
847.35
904.36
1102.63
310.79
313.86
460.70
311.20
190.19
336.54
413.64
467.91
703.11
854.60
917.25
1120.19
326.22
313.51
465.24
320.14
187.24
365.19
439.60
468.22
732.43
888.95
934.14
1138.31
337.21
337.42
492.34
312.89
202.77
366.14
453.22
492.18
742.35
904.58
949.41
1140.68
334.82
335.83
484.23
334.01
198.63
392.50
458.65
496.38
780.73
930.17
975.62
1181.53
366.23
366.00
516.60
339.01
209.32
395.93
476.16
530.85
806.70
956.49
1000.27
1195.37
PRONOSTICADA CON HOLT
WINTERS
Periodo Producción
ene-01 394
feb-01 410
mar-01 407 Gráfica Producción a lo largo del tiempo
abr-01 391 1000
may-01 297 900
jun-01 146 800
jul-01 398 700
ago-01 406 600
sep-01 260
500
oct-01 598
400
nov-01 601
300
dic-01 596
200
ene-02 419
100
feb-02 423
0
mar-02 419 ene-01 ene-03 ene-05 ene-07 ene-09 ene-11 ene-13 en
abr-02 417
may-02 327
jun-02 159
jul-02 422
ago-02 418
sep-02 254
oct-02 613
nov-02 610
dic-02 622
ene-03 444
feb-03 442
mar-03 430
abr-03 449
may-03 343
jun-03 172
jul-03 441
ago-03 435
sep-03 267
oct-03 634
nov-03 634
dic-03 649
ene-04 460
feb-04 458
mar-04 456
abr-04 459
may-04 350
jun-04 173
jul-04 464
ago-04 462
sep-04 282
oct-04 654
nov-04 659
dic-04 666
ene-05 485
feb-05 478
mar-05 485
abr-05 480
may-05 383
jun-05 195
jul-05 481
ago-05 471
sep-05 290
oct-05 690
nov-05 681
dic-05 678
ene-06 504
feb-06 505
mar-06 502
abr-06 501
may-06 393
jun-06 190
jul-06 492
ago-06 507
sep-06 300
oct-06 702
nov-06 698
dic-06 694
ene-07 520
feb-07 515
mar-07 522
abr-07 528
may-07 414
jun-07 210
jul-07 530
ago-07 530
sep-07 312
oct-07 714
nov-07 715
dic-07 714
ene-08 537
feb-08 538
mar-08 547
abr-08 545
may-08 434
jun-08 212
jul-08 546
ago-08 550
sep-08 311
oct-08 740
nov-08 741
dic-08 747
ene-09 553
feb-09 556
mar-09 566
abr-09 561
may-09 457
jun-09 225
jul-09 569
ago-09 569
sep-09 333
oct-09 770
nov-09 769
dic-09 758
ene-10 571
feb-10 573
mar-10 587
abr-10 583
may-10 476
jun-10 246
jul-10 575
ago-10 576
sep-10 330
oct-10 782
nov-10 774
dic-10 771
ene-11 608
feb-11 605
mar-11 606
abr-11 601
may-11 496
jun-11 252
jul-11 594
ago-11 591
sep-11 360
oct-11 792
nov-11 806
dic-11 793
ene-12 615
feb-12 630
mar-12 610
abr-12 614
may-12 510
jun-12 259
jul-12 617
ago-12 623
sep-12 366
oct-12 823
nov-12 820
dic-12 813
ene-13 634
feb-13 636
mar-13 644
abr-13 642
may-13 541
jun-13 273
jul-13 640
ago-13 639
sep-13 370
oct-13 840
nov-13 835
dic-13 847
ene-14 665
feb-14 658
mar-14 652
abr-14 656
may-14 555
jun-14 281
jul-14 669
ago-14 653
sep-14 387
oct-14 851
nov-14 853
dic-14 868
ene-15 681
feb-15 689
mar-15 680
abr-15 681
may-15 583
jun-15 282
jul-15 673
ago-15 671
sep-15 395
oct-15 877
nov-15 878
dic-15 888
AÑO
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
520 537 553 571 608 615 634
515 538 556 573 605 630 636
522 547 566 587 606 610 644
528 545 561 583 601 614 642
414 434 457 476 496 510 541
210 212 225 246 252 259 273
530 546 569 575 594 617 640
530 550 569 576 591 623 639
312 311 333 330 360 366 370
714 740 770 782 792 823 840
715 741 769 774 806 820 835
714 747 758 771 793 813 847
**Todos los datos en Giga
419 395.59
423 413.19
600
419 411.78
417 397.38
327 304.97 500
159 155.57
422 409.16
418 418.76 400
254 274.35
613 613.95
300
610 618.54
622 615.14
444 438.14 200
442 442.14
430 438.14
449 436.14 100
343 346.14
172 178.14
441 441.14 0
-0
1
-0
1 02 -0
3
-0
3 04 -0
5
-0
5
435 437.14 ro re yo- ro re yo- ro re
e b a e b a e b
en em m en em m en em
267 273.14 pti pti pti
s e s e s e
634 632.14
634 629.14
649 641.14
460 463.14
458 461.14
456 449.14
459 468.14
350 362.14
173 191.14
464 460.14
462 454.14
282 286.14
654 653.14
659 653.14
666 668.14
485 479.14
478 477.14
485 475.14
480 478.14
383 369.14
195 192.14
481 483.14
471 481.14
290 301.14
690 673.14
681 678.14
678 685.14
504 504.14
505 497.14
502 504.14
501 499.14
393 402.14
190 214.14
492 500.14
507 490.14
300 309.14
702 709.14
698 700.14
694 697.14
520 523.14
515 524.14
522 521.14
528 520.14
414 412.14
210 209.14
530 511.14
530 526.14
312 319.14
714 721.14
715 717.14
714 713.14
537 539.14
538 534.14
547 541.14
545 547.14
434 433.14
212 229.14
546 549.14
550 549.14
311 331.14
740 733.14
741 734.14
747 733.14
553 556.14
556 557.14
566 566.14
561 564.14
457 453.14
225 231.14
569 565.14
569 569.14
333 330.14
770 759.14
769 760.14
758 766.14
571 572.14
573 575.14
587 585.14
583 580.14
476 476.14
246 244.14
575 588.14
576 588.14
330 352.14
782 789.14
774 788.14
771 777.14
608 590.14
605 592.14
606 606.14
601 602.14
496 495.14
252 265.14
594 594.14
591 595.14
360 349.14
792 801.14
806 793.14
793 790.14
615 627.14
630 624.14
610 625.14
614 620.14
510 515.14
259 271.14
617 613.14
623 610.14
366 379.14
823 811.14
820 825.14
813 812.14
634 634.14
636 649.14
644 629.14
642 633.14
541 529.14
273 278.14
640 636.14
639 642.14
370 385.14
840 842.14
835 839.14
847 832.14
665 653.14
658 655.14
652 663.14
656 661.14
555 560.14
281 292.14
669 659.14
653 658.14
387 389.14
851 859.14
853 854.14
868 866.14
681 684.14
689 677.14
680 671.14
681 675.14
583 574.14
282 300.14
673 688.14
671 672.14
395 406.14
pronostico
877 870.14 Periodo
demanda 2016
878 872.14 enero-16 366.23
888 887.14 febrero-16 366.00
700.14 marzo-16 516.60
708.14 abril-16 339.01
699.14 mayo-16 209.32
700.14 junio-16 395.93
602.14 julio-16 476.16
301.14 agosto-16 530.85
692.14 septiembre-16 806.70
690.14 octubre-16 956.49
414.14 noviembre-16 1000.27
896.14 diciembre-16 1195.37
897.14
907.14
GRÁ FICA PRODUCCION PRONOSTICADA CON HOLT WINTERS
PRONÓSTICO Demanda
-0
3
-0
3 04 -0
5
-0
5 06 -0
7
-0
7 08 -0
9
-0
9 10 -1
1
-1
1 12 -1
3
-1
3
ro re yo- ro re yo- ro re yo- ro re yo- ro re yo- ro re
e b a e b a e b a e b a e b a e b
en em m en em m en em m en em m en em m en em
e pti e pti e pti e pti e pti e pti
s s s s s s
Pronóstico
Producción 2016
700.14
708.14
699.14
700.14
602.14
301.14
692.14
690.14
414.14
896.14
897.14
907.14
T WINTERS
12 -1
3
-1
3 14 -1
5
-1
5 16
yo- ro re yo- ro re yo-
a e b a e b a
m en em m en em m
e pti e pti
s s
Costo de Iniciar la Orden de Producción
Mes Proyección 2017
Enero 1000
Febrero 1000
Marzo 1000
Abril 1300
Mayo 1300
Junio 1700
Julio 1200
Agosto 1200
Septiembre 1400
Octubre 1000
Noviembre 900
Diciembre 900
**Costo en US$
Sistema de Distribución
Bogotá
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
**Proyección 2017 (Costo en US$/Giga BTU)
PRONÓSTICO 2016
Demanda valor
2015 No. Mes pronosticado
Meses Yt t At Tt Yt Error
Marzo 500 1 500 0
Abril 322 2 425.24 -74.0124 501 179
mayo 192 3 284.352008 -140.219236 352.2276 160.2276
Junio 378 4 242.357008 -42.9772426 145.13277192 232.867228
Julio 458 5 308.000264 64.557051 200.379765069 257.620235
Agosto 513 6 431.543243 122.95312 373.55731478 139.442685
Septiembre 789 7 652.98789 220.459732 555.496362127 233.503638
Octubre 939 8 900.979621 247.716411 874.447622216 64.5523778
Noviembre 983 9 1079.1037 178.820001 1149.69603175 166.696032
Diciembre 1178 10 1224.35575 145.587727 1258.92369928 80.9236993
11 1370.94347228 1370.94347
12 1371.94347228 1371.94347
13 1372.94347228 1372.94347
14 1373.94347228 1373.94347
15 1374.94347228 1374.94347
2016
PRONOSTICO
16 1375.94347228 1375.94347
17 1376.94347228 1376.94347
18 1377.94347228 1377.94347
19 1378.94347228 1378.94347
20 1379.94347228 1379.94347
Error 803.645696
PRONÓ
DEMANDA Yt
501
352.2276
Ft = demanda periodo anterior 145.132772
Tt=Tendensia Periodo Anterior 200.379765
373.557315
1600 555.496362
a 0.42 1400 874.447622
b 0.99 1200
1149.69603
p 1 1258.9237
1000
1370.94347
800
1386.71522
600
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-200
t At Tt Yt Error
1 500 0
2 437.935592 -61.4437639 501 148.7724
3 279.321024 -157.642859 377.491828 232.359056
4 154.732837 -124.918734 122.678165 77.7016
5 174.186252 18.0096933 30.8141029 342.743212
6 344.78212 169.070007 193.195945 362.300417
7 665.302235 319.005614 514.852127 359.595495
8 1053.77089 387.77402 985.307849 164.388183
9 1364.844 311.840123 1442.54491 183.621206
10 1548.27305 184.713161 1677.68412 306.740649
11 1370.94347 15.7717448
12 1371.94347 1371.94347
13 1372.94347 1372.94347
14 1373.94347 1373.94347
15 1374.94347 1374.94347
PRONOSTICO
16 1375.94347 1375.94347
17 1376.94347 1376.94347
18 1377.94347 1377.94347
19 1378.94347 1378.94347
20 1379.94347 1379.94347
Error 767.236064
2016
Yt t At Tt Yt Error
680 1 500 0
681 2 576.02 75.2598 501 180
583 3 622.602284 46.8690592 652.2798 69.2798 Ft = demanda periodo anterior
282 4 506.733379 -114.241525 670.471343 388.471343 Tt=Tendensia Periodo Anterior
673 5 510.305275 2.3937619 393.491854 279.508146
671 6 579.185441 68.2153023 513.699037 157.300963
395 7 541.392431 -36.732927 648.400744 253.400744 a
877 8 661.042513 118.086251 505.659504 371.340496 b
878 9 820.654683 159.196911 780.128764 97.8712363 p
888 10 941.273925 121.005018 980.851594 92.8515941
11 1063.27894 1063.27894
12 1064.27894 1064.27894
13 1065.27894 1065.27894
14 1066.27894 1066.27894
15 1067.27894 1067.27894
PRONOSTICO
16 1068.27894 1068.27894
17 1069.27894 1069.27894
18 1070.27894 1070.27894
19 1071.27894 1071.27894
20 1072.27894 1072.27894
Error 661.463882
PRODUCCIÓN
Yt
501
652.2798
t = demanda periodo anterior 670.471343
t=Tendensia Periodo Anterior 393.491854
513.699037
1200 648.400744
0.42 1000 505.659504
0.99 780.128764
800
1 980.851594
600 1063.27894
400
200
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2017
t At Tt Yt Error
1 500 0
2 563.957516 63.3179408 501 151.2798
3 645.417729 81.2787904 628.275457 42.1958863
4 586.75056 -57.2677097 727.696519 334.204666
5 522.853649 -63.8306192 530.48285 16.7838131
6 538.56167 14.9126344 460.02303 188.377714
7 533.392088 -4.96875921 554.474304 48.8147995
8 634.139612 99.6903605 529.423329 250.705435
9 837.579053 202.401951 734.829972 246.021622
10 1049.76614 212.089234 1040.981 22.2979386
11 1063.27894 1063.27894
12 1064.27894 1064.27894
13 1065.27894 1065.27894
14 1066.27894 1066.27894
15 1067.27894 1067.27894
PRONOSTICO
16 1068.27894 1068.27894
17 1069.27894 1069.27894
18 1070.27894 1070.27894
19 1071.27894 1071.27894
20 1072.27894 1072.27894
Error 630.445848
2016
t Yt At Tt St Yt Error^2
-1 1
0 1
1 500 500 0 1
2 322 332.68 -117.124 0.967897078273 500 178
3 192 193.41336 -132.623848 0.992692542025 215.556 23.556
4 378 358.96737072 76.1006531 1.053020499445 60.789512 317.210488
5 458 470.90344044 101.185445 0.97259854287 421.101069 36.8989309
6 513 520.09507509 64.7897777 0.986358119073 567.90837 54.9083697
7 789 739.4098641 172.957286 1.067067181966 615.89574 173.10426
8 939 962.26960701 207.889006 0.975817996498 887.36696 51.6330396
9 983 1007.0092269 93.6844356 0.976157887911 1154.19545 171.195448
10 1178 1103.7644724 95.8340025 1.067256674315 1174.51408 3.48591537
11 1170.58978 1170.58978
12 1264.54663 1264.54663
13 1484.83844 1484.83844
218.058223
L 3
a 0.94
B 0.70
Y 1 20
t Yt
-1
0
1 500
Pronóstico Demanda 2 215.556
1600 3 60.789512
4 421.101069
5 567.90837
1200
6 615.89574
7 887.36696
800 8 1154.19545
9 1174.51408
400 10 1170.58978
11 1264.54663
0
12 1484.83844
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13
-400
N Demanda Actual
Pronostico 2017
2017
At Tt St Yt Error^2
1
1
500 0 1
232.62264 -187.164152 0.9266338 500 284.444
59.8696506 -177.076338 1.0153644 45.458488 15.331024
388.802604 177.130166 1.08307163 -117.206688 538.307757
610.056115 208.016507 0.93091169 524.412431 43.4959391
619.265854 68.8517701 0.99455789 830.641819 214.74608
811.434591 155.173646 1.09357793 745.280676 142.086284
1223.46013 334.969969 0.94338624 899.826909 254.368539
1203.59025 86.5820773 0.97584214 1549.94894 375.434858
1083.60694 -58.0136954 1.08027158 1410.90398 240.314203
1131.68469 132.861936
1264.1376 220.700836
1502.94564 1502.94564
224.139062
2016
t Yt At Tt St Yt Error^2
-1 1
0 1
1 680 680 0 1
2 681 680.94 0.658 1.00008811349 680 1
3 583 588.91588 -64.219484 0.989954626457 681.598 98.598
4 282 296.56178376 -223.913713 0.950897976215 524.696396 242.696396
5 673 636.92314683 171.07884 1.056642396109 72.6544725 600.345528
6 671 685.62043167 85.4117515 0.97867561847 799.885305 128.885305
7 395 436.73494627 -148.596314 0.904438729645 733.172943 338.172943
8 877 797.47658505 207.940253 1.099718808602 304.459494 572.540506
9 878 903.62792334 136.688013 0.971638854139 983.976946 105.976946
10 888 985.33387858 98.2005725 0.90121736328 940.902024 52.9020236
11 1191.58322 1191.58322
12 1148.21966 1148.21966
13 1153.50018 1153.50018
333.270086
L 3
a 0.94
B 0.70
Y 1 2017
t Yt
-1
0
1 680
PRONÓSTICO PRODUCCIÓN 2 681.598
1600 3 524.696396
4 72.6544725
5 799.885305
1200
6 733.172943
7 304.459494
800 8 983.976946
9 940.902024
10 1191.58322
400
11 1148.21966
12 1153.50018
0 13
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-400
N Demanda Actual
Pronostico 2017
2017
At Tt St Yt Error^2
1
1
680 0 1
681.50212 1.051484 1.00014069 680 1.598
534.167828 -102.818559 0.98226881 682.553604 157.857208
94.1761603 -338.839735 0.77147414 431.34927 358.694797
737.106604 348.39939 1.08516909 -244.697997 1044.5833
766.753541 125.272673 0.95620418 1066.25868 333.085736
424.489191 -202.003243 0.71723733 688.175158 383.715664
865.694045 248.242425 1.13663361 241.434874 742.542072
991.793346 162.742238 0.94868757 1065.15071 124.248687
1630.94241 496.227018 0.73061023 828.076021 363.507194
1231.58167 83.3620088
1121.09733 32.4028499
935.134044 935.134044
359.319467