Universidad de Guayaquil

Facultad de Ingeniería Química

Ingeniería de la Producción
Nombre: Kenneth Mosquera Cruz Curso: IPR-S- 5-2

𝑥𝑡−1 + 𝑥𝑡−2 + ⋯ +𝑥𝑡−𝑛

𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎 → 𝑥̂𝑡 =
𝑛

Periodo 5 Periodo 6
𝑥1 + 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 + 𝑥4 𝑥2 + 𝑥3 + 𝑥4 + 𝑥̂5
𝑥̂5 = 𝑥̂6 =
4 4

673 + 458 + 775 + 586 458 + 775 + 586 + 623

𝑥̂5 = 𝑥̂6 =
4 4

2.492 2.442
𝑥̂5 = = 623 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑥̂6 = = 610.5 ≈ 611 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠
4 4

Periodo 6
𝑥3 + 𝑥4 + 𝑥̂5 + 𝑥̂6
𝑥̂7 =
4

775 + 586 + 623 + 610.5

𝑥̂7 =
4

𝑥̂7 = 648.6 ≈ 649𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠

 CALCULAR PRONOSTICO MESES 9, 10, 11 Y 12

Pronostico mes 9 Pronostico mes 10

𝑥̂9 = 𝑐1 𝑥6 + 𝑐2 𝑥̂7 + 𝑐3 𝑥̂8 𝑥̂10 = 𝑐1 𝑥̂7 + 𝑐2 𝑥̂8 + 𝑐3 𝑥̂9
𝑥̂9 = 0.2(170) + 0.3(164.2) + 0.5(165.5) 𝑥̂10 = 0.2(164.2) + 0.3(165.5) + 0.5(166.01)
𝑥̂9 = 34 + 49.26 + 82.75 𝑥̂10 = 32.84 + 49.65 + 83.005
𝑥̂9 = 166.01 ≈ 167 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑥̂10 = 165.4 ≈ 166 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠

Pronostico mes 11 Pronostico mes 12

𝑥̂11 = 𝑐1 𝑥̂8 + 𝑐2 𝑥̂9 + 𝑐3 𝑥̂10 𝑥̂12 = 𝑐1 𝑥̂9 + 𝑐2 𝑥̂10 + 𝑐3 𝑥̂11
𝑥̂11 = 0.2(165.5) + 0.3(166.01) + 0.5(165.4) 𝑥̂12 = 0.2(166.01) + 0.3(165.4) + 0.5(165.6)
𝑥̂11 = 33.1 + 49.803 + 82.7 𝑥̂12 = 33.202 + 49.62 + 82.8
𝑥̂11 = 165.6 ≈ 166 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑥̂12 = 165.6 ≈ 166 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠

PRONOSTICAR PERIODOS 7 Y 8

𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎 → 𝑥
̂𝑡 = 𝛼𝑥𝑡−1 + (1 − 𝛼 )𝑥
̂𝑡−1

Periodo 7 Periodo 8
𝑥̂7 = 𝛼𝑥6 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑥̂6 𝑥̂8 = 𝛼𝑥7 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑥̂7
𝑥̂7 = 0.9(16) + (1 − 0.9)18.4 𝑥̂8 = 0.9(20) + (1 − 0.9)16.2
𝑥̂7 = 14.4 + 1.84 𝑥̂8 = 18 + 1.62
𝑥̂7 = 16.2 ≈ 17 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑥̂8 = 19.6 ≈ 20 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑑𝑒𝑠
 𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎 → 𝑥
̂𝑡 = 𝛼𝑥𝑡−1 + (1 − 𝛼 )𝑥
̂𝑡−1

Calculamos la demanda pronosticada en

Periodo 4
el mes 3 y remplazamos.
𝑥̂4 = 𝛼𝑥3 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑥̂3
𝑥̂4 = 0.25(139) + (1 − 0.25)𝑥̂3 𝑥1 + 𝑥2 116 + 133
𝑥̂4 = 0.25(139) + (1 − 0.25)124.5 𝑥̂3 = = = 124.5
2 2
𝑥̂4 = 34.75 + 93.375
𝑥̂4 = 128.1 ≈ 129 𝑢𝑛𝑖. 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑎ñ𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑥̂3 = 125 𝑢𝑛𝑖𝑑𝑒𝑠 𝑑𝑒 𝑃𝑎ñ𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠

Periodo 5 Periodo 6
𝑥̂5 = 𝛼𝑥4 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑥̂4 𝑥̂6 = 𝛼𝑥5 + (1 − 𝛼)𝑥̂5
𝑥̂5 = 0.25(157) + (1 − 0.25)128.1 𝑥̂6 = 0.25(154) + (1 − 0.25)135.2
𝑥̂5 = 39.25 + 96.075 𝑥̂6 = 38.5 + 101.4
𝑥̂5 = 135.2 ≈ 136 𝑢𝑛𝑖. 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑎ñ𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝑥̂6 = 139.9 ≈ 140 𝑢𝑛𝑖. 𝑑𝑒 𝑝𝑎ñ𝑎𝑙𝑒𝑠