Dt = Demanda real Ft = Pronóstico

𝑫_𝒕 𝒅𝒂𝒕𝒂 𝒓𝒆𝒂𝒍 𝑭_𝒕 𝒔𝒆𝒈ú𝒏 𝒎é𝒕𝒐𝒅𝒐

Mes Demanda Mes Promedio mov. P.mov pond. Suav. Exp.
ENE 9724 ENE 10,539.33 10,643.10 10,000.00
FEB 8786 FEB 10,515.00 10,294.90 9,845.87
MAR 9254 MAR 9,732.33 9,447.60 9,254.00
ABR 10691 ABR 9,254.67 9,207.60 9,254.00
MAY 9256 MAY 9,577.00 9,878.90 10,056.47
JUN 8700 JUN 9,733.67 9,686.10 9,609.46
JUL 10192 JUL 9,549.00 9,265.00 9,101.58
AGO 10751 AGO 9,382.67 9,557.20 9,710.51
SET 9724 SET 9,881.00 10,173.10 10,291.56
OCT 10193 OCT 10,222.33 10,125.70 9,974.61
NOV 11599 NOV 10,222.67 10,163.90 10,096.57
DIC 11130 DIC 10,505.33 10,802.20 10,935.58

Demanda vs promedio móvil

Demanda Promedio mov.
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
EN E FEB MAR AB R MAY JUN J UL AG O SET OCT NOV DIC

DEMANDA VS PROMEDIO MÓVIL PONDERADO

Demanda P.mov pond.
14000

12000
 DEMANDA VS PROMEDIO MÓVIL PONDERADO
Demanda P.mov pond.
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
EN E FEB MAR AB R MAY JUN J UL AG O SET OCT NOV DIC

DEMANDA VS SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL

Demanda Suav. Exp.
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN J UL AG O SET OC T NOV DIC

DEMANDA VS MÉTODO DE HOLT

Demanda Holt
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN J UL AG O SET OC T NOV DIC

DEMANDA VS MÉTODO DE WINTER

Demanda Winter
 DEMANDA VS MÉTODO DE WINTER
Demanda Winter
14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0
ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY JUN J UL AG O SET OC T NOV DIC
tico Et = Errores de pronóstico

𝑬_𝒕=𝑭_𝒕−𝑫_𝑻
Holt Winter Mes Promedio mov. P.mov pond. Suav. Exp.
9,067.35 8,966.31 ENE 815.33 919.10 276.00
9,292.08 9,114.14 FEB 1,729.00 1,508.90 1,059.87
9,421.77 10,182.51 MAR 478.33 193.60 0.00
9,577.85 10,196.87 ABR -1,436.33 -1,483.40 -1,437.00
9,840.86 9,916.75 MAY 321.00 622.90 800.47
9,965.69 8,905.95 JUN 1,033.67 986.10 909.46
10,030.99 9,525.75 JUL -643.00 -927.00 -1,090.42
10,211.07 10,514.31 AGO -1,368.33 -1,193.80 -1,040.49
10,423.62 9,909.27 SET 157.00 449.10 567.56
10,534.21 9,271.50 OCT 29.33 -67.30 -218.39
10,672.11 11,072.71 NOV -1,376.33 -1,435.10 -1,502.43
10,915.17 12,470.34 DIC -624.67 -327.80 -194.42

Promedio mov.
Promedio mov. Linear (Promedio mov.)
2,000.00

1,500.00

1,000.00

500.00

0.00
ENE F EB MAR ABR MAY J UN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV
-500.00

-1,000.00

-1,500.00

SET OC T NOV DIC -2,000.00

DERADO P.mov pond.

P.mov pond. Linear (P.mov pond.)
2,000.00

1,500.00

1,000.00
 DERADO P.mov pond.
P.mov pond. Linear (P.mov pond.)
2,000.00

1,500.00

1,000.00

500.00

0.00
ENE FEB MAR AB R MAY J UN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV
-500.00

-1,000.00

-1,500.00

SET OC T NOV DIC -2,000.00

NENCIAL Suav. Exp.

Suav. Exp. Linear (Suav. Exp.)
1,500.00

1,000.00

500.00

0.00
ENE FEB MAR AB R MAY J UN JUL AGO SET OCT NOV
-500.00

-1,000.00

-1,500.00

SET OCT NOV DIC -2,000.00

LT Holt
Holt Linear (Holt)
1,500.00

1,000.00

500.00

0.00
ENE F EB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AG O S ET OCT NOV

-500.00

-1,000.00

SET OCT NOV DIC -1,500.00

TER Winter
Winter Linear (Winter)
TER Winter
Winter Linear (Winter)
1,500.00

1,000.00

500.00

0.00
ENE F EB MAR ABR MAY JUN JUL AG O S ET OCT NOV

-500.00

-1,000.00

SET OCT NOV DIC -1,500.00

ronóstico

Holt Winter Mes Promedio mov. P.mov pond. Suav. Exp.

-656.65 -757.69 MSE 976,114.16 948,129.21 805,740.36
506.08 328.14 MAD 834.36 842.84 758.04
167.77 928.51 MAPE(%) 8.37 8.45 7.54
-1,113.15 -494.13
584.86 660.75
1,265.69 205.95
-161.01 -666.25 MSE: Error medio cuadrático
-539.93 -236.69 MAD: Desviación media absoluta
699.62 185.27 MAPE: Error porcentual medio
341.21 -921.50
-926.89 -526.29
-214.83 1,340.34

mov. MSE
Linear (Promedio mov.) Promedio mov. Holt Winter P.mov pond. Suav. Exp.
976,114.16

948,129.21

805,740.36
477,267.59

476,996.89

JUL AG O SET OC T NOV DIC

nd. MSE

Linear (P.mov pond.)

nd.
Linear (P.mov pond.)

MAD
Promedio mov. Holt Winter P.mov pond. Suav. Exp.

842.84
834.36

758.04
JUL AGO SET OC T NOV DIC

604.29
598.14
p.
Linear (Suav. Exp.)

MAD

JUL AGO SET OC T NOV DIC

MAPE (%)
Promedio mov. Holt Winter P.mov pond. Suav. Exp.

8.45
8.37

7.54
6.06

6.00

Linear (Holt)

MAP E(% )
JUL AG O SET OC T NOV DIC

Linear (Winter)
 Linear (Winter)

JUL AG O SET OC T NOV DIC

 Holt Winter
477,267.59 476,996.89
598.14 604.29
6.06 6.00

drático
a absoluta
al medio

mov pond. Suav. Exp.

948,129.21

805,740.36
.mov pond. Suav. Exp.
842.84

758.04

)
.mov pond. Suav. Exp.
8.45

7.54
 MÉTODO DE PRONOSTICO - PROMEDIO MOVIL (3)
𝑭_(𝒕+𝟐)
ABS
Año Mes Demanda Móvil (3) Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt) Cálculo para MAPE
(Ft-Dt)
2017
2017
OCT
NOV
9,797.00
11,134.00 𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)=
2017 DIC 10,687.00
2018 ENE 9,724.00 10,539.33 815.33 815.33 664,768.44 8.38
2018 FEB 8,786.00 10,515.00 1,729.00 1,729.00 2,989,441.00 19.68
2018 MAR 9,254.00 9,732.33 478.33 478.33 228,802.78 5.17
2018 ABR 10,691.00 9,254.67 -1,436.33 1,436.33 2,063,053.44 13.43
2018 MAY 9,256.00 9,577.00 321.00 321.00 103,041.00 3.47
2018 JUN 8,700.00 9,733.67 1,033.67 1,033.67 1,068,466.78 11.88
2018 JUL 10,192.00 9,549.00 -643.00 643.00 413,449.00 6.31
2018 AGO 10,751.00 9,382.67 -1,368.33 1,368.33 1,872,336.11 12.73
2018 SET 9,724.00 9,881.00 157.00 157.00 24,649.00 1.61
2018 OCT 10,193.00 10,222.33 29.33 29.33 860.44 0.29
2018 NOV 11,599.00 10,222.67 -1,376.33 1,376.33 1,894,293.44 11.87
2018 DIC 11,130.00 10,505.33 -624.67 624.67 390,208.44 5.61
TOTAL 10,012.33 11,713,369.89 100.43
 𝑭_(𝒕+𝟐)=𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)𝑭_𝟏=𝑳_𝟎 𝑬_𝒕=𝑭_𝒕−𝑫_𝑻
𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)=((𝑫_(𝒕+𝟏)+𝑫_𝒕+…+𝑫_(𝒕−𝑵+𝟐)))⁄𝑵
Ft: Pronóstico de la demanda en el periodo t
Lt: Estimación de nivel al final del periodo t
Dt: Demanda real observada en periodo t
t: Periodo de tiempo considerado
N: Cantidad total de periodos de tiempo
Et: Error de pronóstico
𝑭_𝒕−𝑫_𝑻
−𝑵+𝟐)))⁄𝑵
eriodo t
iodo t
do t

mpo
 MÉTODO DE PRONOSTICO - PROMEDIO MOVIL PONDERADO

ABS
Año Mes Demanda Móvil ponderado Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt) Cálculo para MAPE
(Ft-Dt)
2017 OCT 9,797.00
2017 NOV 11,134.00
2017 DIC 10,687.00

2018 ENE 9,724.00 10,643.10 919.10 919.10 844,744.81 9.45

2018 FEB 8,786.00 10,294.90 1,508.90 1,508.90 2,276,779.21 17.17
2018 MAR 9,254.00 9,447.60 193.60 193.60 37,480.96 2.09
2018 ABR 10,691.00 9,207.60 -1,483.40 1,483.40 2,200,475.56 13.88
2018 MAY 9,256.00 9,878.90 622.90 622.90 388,004.41 6.73
2018 JUN 8,700.00 9,686.10 986.10 986.10 972,393.21 11.33
2018 JUL 10,192.00 9,265.00 -927.00 927.00 859,329.00 9.10
2018 AGO 10,751.00 9,557.20 -1,193.80 1,193.80 1,425,158.44 11.10
2018 SET 9,724.00 10,173.10 449.10 449.10 201,690.81 4.62
2018 OCT 10,193.00 10,125.70 -67.30 67.30 4,529.29 0.66
2018 NOV 11,599.00 10,163.90 -1,435.10 1,435.10 2,059,512.01 12.37
2018 DIC 11,130.00 10,802.20 -327.80 327.80 107,452.84 2.95
TOTAL 10,114.10 11,377,550.55 101.45
 𝑭_(𝒕+𝟐)=𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)𝑭_𝟏=𝑳_𝟎
𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓. 𝑝𝑜𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑐𝑖ó𝑛

alfa= 0.50
beta= 0.30
𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)=𝜶𝑫_(𝒕+𝟏)+𝜷𝑫_𝒕+
gamma= 0.20
1.00
Ft: Pronóstico de la demanda en
𝛼+𝛽+𝛾=1 Lt: Estimación de nivel al final d
Dt: Demanda real observada en
0<𝛼<1 t: Periodo de tiempo considera
0<𝛽<1 N: Cantidad total de periodos d
0<𝛾< 1 Et: Error de pronóstico
 _𝟏=𝑳_𝟎 𝑬_𝒕=𝑭_𝒕−𝑫_𝑻

𝟏)+𝜷𝑫_𝒕+𝜹𝑫_(𝒕−𝑵+𝟐)

a demanda en el periodo t
nivel al final del periodo t
observada en periodo t
po considerado
de periodos de tiempo
stico
 MÉTODO DE PRONOSTICO - SUAVIZACIÓN EXPONENCIAL

ABS
Año Mes Demanda Suavización exponencial Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt) Cálculo para MAPE
(Ft-Dt)
2018 ENE 9,724.00 10,000.00 276.00 276.00 76,176.00 2.84
2018 FEB 8,786.00 9,845.87 1,059.87 1,059.87 1,123,327.46 12.06
2018 MAR 9,254.00 9,254.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
2018 ABR 10,691.00 9,254.00 -1,437.00 1,437.00 2,064,968.76 13.44
2018 MAY 9,256.00 10,056.47 800.47 800.47 640,758.24 8.65
2018 JUN 8,700.00 9,609.46 909.46 909.46 827,117.00 10.45
2018 JUL 10,192.00 9,101.58 -1,090.42 1,090.42 1,189,007.22 10.70
2018 AGO 10,751.00 9,710.51 -1,040.49 1,040.49 1,082,614.41 9.68
2018 SET 9,724.00 10,291.56 567.56 567.56 322,123.22 5.84
2018 OCT 10,193.00 9,974.61 -218.39 218.39 47,692.81 2.14
2018 NOV 11,599.00 10,096.57 -1,502.43 1,502.43 2,257,300.68 12.95
2018 DIC 11,130.00 10,935.58 -194.42 194.42 37,798.54 1.75
TOTAL 9,096.50 9,668,884.34 90.50
 0<𝛼<1
𝑭_(𝒕+𝟐)=𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)
𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓. 𝑠𝑢𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑐𝑖ó𝑛 𝑬_𝒕=𝑭_𝒕−𝑫_𝑻
Alfa= 0.55844
𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)=𝜶𝑫_(𝒕+𝟏)+(
Errores
MSE Err:508
MAD
MAPE (%)
Err:508
Err:508
Ft: Pronóstico de la demanda en
Lt: Estimación de nivel al final del
Dt: Demanda real observada en p
t: Periodo de tiempo considerado
N: Cantidad total de periodos de
Et: Error de pronóstico
(𝒕+𝟏)
𝑭_𝟏=(∑24_𝟏^𝑵▒𝑫_𝒕 )⁄𝑵

𝜶𝑫_(𝒕+𝟏)+(𝟏−𝜶 〖 )𝑭 〗 _(𝒕+𝟏)
a demanda en el periodo t
nivel al final del periodo t
observada en periodo t
po considerado
de periodos de tiempo
stico
 MÉTODO DE PRONOSTICO - HOLT

ABS
Año Nro Mes Demanda L T Método Holt Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt)
(Ft-Dt)
8898 170
2018 1 ENE 9,724.00 9119.88 172.20 9,067.35 -656.65 656.65 431,194.27
2018 2 FEB 8,786.00 9251.59 170.18 9,292.08 506.08 506.08 256,115.45
2018 3 MAR 9,254.00 9408.35 169.50 9,421.77 167.77 167.77 28,146.09
2018 4 ABR 10,691.00 9666.90 173.96 9,577.85 -1,113.15 1,113.15 1,239,100.32
2018 5 MAY 9,256.00 9794.07 171.62 9,840.86 584.86 584.86 342,061.60
2018 6 JUN 8,700.00 9864.43 166.56 9,965.69 1,265.69 1,265.69 1,601,969.44
2018 7 JUL 10,192.00 10043.87 167.20 10,030.99 -161.01 161.01 25,924.47
2018 8 AGO 10,751.00 10254.26 169.36 10,211.07 -539.93 539.93 291,525.29
2018 9 SET 9,724.00 10367.65 166.56 10,423.62 699.62 699.62 489,471.59
2018 10 OCT 10,193.00 10506.92 165.20 10,534.21 341.21 341.21 116,426.31
2018 11 NOV 11,599.00 10746.26 168.90 10,672.11 -926.89 926.89 859,122.41
2018 12 DIC 11,130.00 10932.35 169.76 10,915.17 -214.83 214.83 46,153.84
TOTAL 7,177.70 5,727,211.08
 𝑭_(𝒕+𝟏)=𝑳_𝒕+𝑻_𝒕
T
𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)=𝜶𝑫_(𝒕+𝟏
Cálculo para MAPE

6.75
5.76
𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓. 𝑠𝑢𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑐𝑖ó𝑛 𝑻_(𝒕+𝟏)=𝜷 〖 (𝑳 〗 _
1.81
10.41 Alfa Beta Ft: Pronóstico de la dema
6.32
14.55
0.08 0.05
Lt: Estimación de nivel al
1.58
5.02
0<𝛼<1 Tt: Tendencia de nivel al fi
7.19 0<𝛽<1 Dt: Demanda real observa
3.35
7.99 t: Periodo de tiempo con
N: Cantidad total de perio
1.93
72.67

Et: Error de pronóstico

=𝑳_𝒕+𝑻_𝒕 𝑬_𝒕=𝑭_𝒕−𝑫_𝑻
=𝜶𝑫_(𝒕+𝟏)+(𝟏−𝜶 〖 )(𝑳 〗 _𝒕+𝑻_𝒕)
=𝜷 〖 (𝑳 〗 _(𝒕+𝟏)−𝑳_𝒕)+(𝟏−𝜷 〖 )𝑻 〗 _𝒕
co de la demanda en el periodo t
ón de nivel al final del periodo t
a de nivel al final del periodo t
a real observada en periodo t
e tiempo considerado
total de periodos de tiempo
pronóstico
 MÉTODO DE PRONOSTICO - WINTER

Método
Año Nro Mes Demanda D.d Dt St1 Nivel Tendencia St2
de Winter
8866 158
2018 1 ENE 9,724.00 9,024.46 1.08 9329.50 371.98 0.99 8,966.31
2018 2 FEB 8,786.00 9,182.91 0.96 9561.77 274.18 0.94 9,114.14
2018 3 MAR 9,254.00 9,555.25 9,341.36 0.99 9477.19 23.05 1.04 10,182.51
2018 4 ABR 10,691.00 9,486.00 9,499.82 1.13 9684.39 151.95 1.07 10,196.87
2018 5 MAY 9,256.00 9,592.50 9,658.27 0.96 9574.18 -31.56 1.01 9,916.75
2018 6 JUN 8,700.00 9,717.25 9,816.73 0.89 9454.35 -93.35 0.93 8,905.95
2018 7 JUL 10,192.00 9,783.25 9,975.18 1.02 9622.90 89.98 1.02 9,525.75
2018 8 AGO 10,751.00 10,028.38 10,133.63 1.06 9800.34 151.20 1.08 10,514.31
2018 9 SET 9,724.00 10,390.88 10,292.09 0.94 9877.11 99.10 1.00 9,909.27
2018 10 OCT 10,193.00 10,614.13 10,450.54 0.98 10372.83 376.74 0.93 9,271.50
2018 11 NOV 11,599.00 10,609.00 1.09 10953.94 519.80 1.03 11,072.71
2018 12 DIC 11,130.00 10,767.45 1.03 10980.45 174.49 1.09 12,470.34

3
4
CO - WINTER

ABS Cálculo
Ft-Dt (Ft-Dt) * (Ft-Dt)
(Ft-Dt) para MAPE

-757.69 757.69 574,098.58 7.79

328.14 328.14 107,677.35 3.73
928.51 928.51 862,125.83 10.03
-494.13 494.13 244,165.27 4.62 𝐶𝑜𝑒𝑓. 𝑠𝑢𝑎𝑣𝑖𝑧𝑎𝑐𝑖ó𝑛
660.75 660.75 436,594.85 7.14
205.95 205.95 42,417.14 2.37
-666.25 666.25 443,892.50 6.54 Alfa Beta Gamma
-236.69 236.69 56,023.91 2.20 0.40 0.7 0.30
185.27 185.27 34,324.88 1.91 p t
-921.50 921.50 849,161.83 9.04 4 3
-526.29 526.29 276,977.58 4.54
1,340.34 1,340.34 1,796,502.95 12.04
TOTAL 7,251.52 5,723,962.68 71.95
 𝑬_𝒕=𝑭_
𝑭_(𝒕+𝟏)= 〖 (𝑳 〗 _𝒕+𝑻_𝒕)𝑺_(𝒕+𝟏)
𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏)=𝜶(𝑫_(𝒕+𝟏)⁄𝑺_(𝒕+𝟏) )

𝑻_(𝒕+𝟏)=𝜷 〖 (𝑳 〗 _(𝒕+𝟏)−𝑳_
p: Periodicidad
t: Periodos
𝑺_(𝒕+𝒑+𝟏)=𝜸(𝑫_(𝒕+𝟏)⁄𝑳_(𝒕+
0<𝛼<1
0<𝛽<1
0<𝛾< 1 Ft: Pronóstico de la demanda en el pe
Lt: Estimación de nivel al final del per
Tt: Tendencia de nivel al final del peri
St: Factor estacional de la demanda
Dt: Demanda real observada en perio
t: Periodo de tiempo considerado
N: Cantidad total de periodos de tiem
Et: Error de pronóstico
 𝑬_𝒕=𝑭_𝒕−𝑫_𝑻
𝑺_(𝒕+𝟏)
𝑺_(𝒕+𝟏) )+(𝟏−𝜶 〖 )(𝑳 〗 _𝒕+𝑻_𝒕)

(𝒕+𝟏)−𝑳_𝒕)+(𝟏−𝜷 〖 )𝑻 〗 _𝒕

+𝟏)⁄𝑳_(𝒕+𝟏) )+(𝟏−𝜸 〖 )𝑺 〗 _(𝒕+𝟏)

anda en el periodo t
final del periodo t
final del periodo t
a demanda
ada en periodo t
nsiderado
odos de tiempo