PROYECCION - MINIMOS CUADRADOS ORDINARIOS

X VARIABLE
datos originales INDEPENDIENTE Y VARIABLE DEPENDIENTE MULTIPLICACION X AL CUADRADO
IMPORTACION
IMPORTACION PIB TN expresada en PIB TN (VARIABLE Y) XY X2
(VARIABLE X) (VARIABLE Y) millones (VARIABLE
X)
DATOS
1,072 4,479 1 0.00 0.004 0 0
1,137 4,872 2 0.00 0.005 0 0
1,364 5,327 3 0.00 0.005 0 0
1,511 5,736 4 0.00 0.006 0 0
1,517 6,463 5 0.00 0.006 0 0
1,916 7,180 6 0.00 0.007 0 0
2,105 7,950 7 0.00 0.008 0 0
2,336 8,979 8 0.00 0.009 0 0
2,450 10,192 9 0.00 0.010 0 0
2,568 11,044 10 0.00 0.011 0 0
2,943 12,082 11 0.00 0.012 0 0
3,176 13,016 12 0.00 0.013 0 0
4,016 16,720 13 0.00 0.017 0 0
7,157 25,272 14 0.01 0.025 0 0
11,262 42,026 15 0.01 0.042 0 0
15,502 48,118 16 0.02 0.048 0 0
16,338 54,667 17 0.02 0.055 0 0
19,145 64,581 18 0.02 0.065 0 0
22,642 75,202 19 0.02 0.075 0 0
24,714 90,210 20 0.02 0.090 0 0
25,000 111,000 21 0.03 0.111 0 0
33,000 144,000 22 0.03 0.144 0 0
105,000 358,000 23 0.11 0.358 0 0
302,000 1,256,000 24 0.30 1.256 0 0
4,995,000 19,347,000 25 5.00 19.347 97 25
540,498,000 2,366,158,000 26 540.5 2,366.158 1,278,904 292,138
 1,956,270,000 7,607,769,000 27 1,956.3 7,607.769 14,882,850 3,826,992
2,143,557,000 8,884,398,000 28 2,143.6 8,884.398 19,044,214 4,594,837
2,500,264,000 10,805,500,000 29 2,500.3 10,805.500 27,016,603 6,251,320
2,939,460,000 12,693,906,000 30 2,939.5 12,693.906 37,313,229 8,640,425
3,694,970,000 15,443,136,000 31 3,695.0 15,443.136 57,061,924 13,652,803
5,159,097,000 19,132,128,000 32 5,159.1 19,132.128 98,704,504 26,616,282
6,398,392,000 22,014,006,000 33 6,398.4 22,014.006 140,854,240 40,939,420
6,943,011,000 24,458,969,000 34 6,943.0 24,458.969 169,818,891 48,205,402
7,516,405,000 27,636,342,000 35 7,516.4 27,636.342 207,725,939 56,496,344
8,763,609,000 32,235,073,000 36 8,763.6 32,235.073 282,495,576 76,800,843
10,237,903,000 37,536,647,000 37 10,237.9 37,536.647 384,296,551 104,814,658
12,226,248,000 41,643,866,000 38 12,226.2 41,643.866 509,148,233 149,481,140
15,255,874,000 46,822,326,000 39 15,255.9 46,822.326 714,315,506 232,741,692
13,140,547,000 48,156,175,000 40 13,140.5 48,156.175 632,798,481 172,673,975
14,188,437,000 51,928,492,000 41 14,188.4 51,928.492 736,784,137 201,311,745
13,585,109,000 53,790,327,000 42 13,585.1 53,790.327 730,747,455 184,555,187
15,709,964,000 56,682,329,000 43 15,710.0 56,682.329 890,477,348 246,802,969
16,322,409,000 61,904,449,000 44 16,322.4 61,904.449 1,010,429,735 266,421,036
18,329,684,000 69,626,113,000 45 18,329.7 69,626.113 1,276,224,649 335,977,316
24,719,869,000 77,023,817,000 46 24,719.9 77,023.817 1,904,018,666 611,071,923
30,062,206,000 91,747,795,000 47 30,062.2 91,747.795 2,758,141,113 903,736,230
35,297,389,000 103,009,182,000 48 35,297.4 103,009.182 3,635,955,168 1,245,905,670
45,815,914,000 120,693,764,000 49 45,815.9 120,693.764 5,529,695,112 2,099,097,976
40,053,515,000 121,726,745,000 50 40,053.5 121,726.745 4,875,584,007 1,604,284,064
47,324,645,000 137,875,568,000 51 47,324.6 137,875.568 6,524,912,310 2,239,622,024
63,814,125,000 166,231,563,000 52 63,814.1 166,231.563 10,607,921,740 4,072,242,550
70,711,535,000 187,153,878,000 53 70,711.5 187,153.878 13,233,937,995 5,000,121,182
78,680,000,000 211,856,032,000 54 78,680.0 211,856.032 16,668,832,598 6,190,542,400
95,696,286,000 228,003,659,000 55 95,696.3 228,003.659 21,819,103,361 9,157,779,154
84,518,799,000 228,031,370,000 56 84,518.8 228,031.370 19,272,937,527 7,143,427,384
74,846,642,000 234,533,182,000 57 74,846.6 234,533.182 17,554,021,110 5,602,019,819
82,422,058,000 259,184,717,000 58 82,422.1 259,184.717 21,362,537,777 6,793,395,645
Sumatoria 951520.3 2,818,461 153,689,017,549.9 54,844,342,568
 Calculo de a

𝒂=(∑𝒚∑𝒙^𝟐−∑𝒙∑𝒙𝒚)/(𝑵∑𝒙^𝟐− 〖 (∑𝒙) 〗 ^𝟐 )

a 2,818,461 54,844,342,568 - 951,520

58 54,844,342,568 - 951,520

a 2,818,461 54,844,342,568 - 951,520

58 54,844,342,568 - 905,390,873,454

a ### - 146,238,219,451,233,000
3,180,971,868,944 - 905,390,873,454

a ###
2,275,580,995,490

a 3,664

Y = a + b

Y = 3,664 + 2.739

EJEMPLO SI LA IMPORTACION FUERA EL VALOR DE 54 MILLONES (VARIABLE X)

Y = 3,664.307 + 2.739
Y = 3,664.307 + 2.739
Y = 3,664.307 + 147,889,951.759
Y = 147,893,616.07
 Calculo de b

b =(𝑵∑𝒙𝒚−∑𝒙∑𝒚)/(𝑵∑𝒙^𝟐− 〖 (∑𝒙) 〗 ^𝟐 )

153,689,017,550 b 58 ### - 951,520 2,818,461

)2 58 ### - 951,520 )2

153,689,017,550 b 58 ### - 951,520 2,818,461

58 ### - ###

b ### - ###
### - ###

b ###
###

b 2.739

X UTIL PARA EL PRONOSTICO

X
54,000,000