VENTA HISTORICAS ANUALES DE ESPARRAGO FRESCO A EUROPA (TONELADAS)

CANTIDAD TN FRECUENCIA COSTO POR TONELADA $400

1000 40 INGRESOS POR TONELADA VENDIDA $750
2000 100
3500 70 Si se atiende en el siguiente bimestre a 30 clientes,
5000 60 determinar la utilidad esperada
N° de pruebas de simulación: 10

CANTIDAD TN FRECUENCIA Prob ProbMin ProbMax CANTIDAD TN

1000 40 0.148 0 0.148 1000
2000 100 0.370 0.148 0.519 2000
3500 70 0.259 0.519 0.778 3500
5000 60 0.222 0.778 1.000 5000
270

Cliente Aleatorio Cantidad(TN) Costo TN PV TN Utilidad

1 0.2558299249 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
2 0.9290538395 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
3 0.4731980273 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
4 0.1604061853 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
5 0.6688500599 3500 $1,400,000 $2,625,000 $1,225,000
6 0.2206179773 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
7 0.4289843473 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
8 0.9943824267 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
9 0.4838615875 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
10 0.7778596282 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
11 0.3686178354 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
12 0.8516187737 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
13 0.5135198394 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
14 0.7897876387 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
15 0.5720746929 3500 $1,400,000 $2,625,000 $1,225,000
16 0.3854731839 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
17 0.1874698797 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
18 0.7917780478 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
19 0.8132057388 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
20 0.5729163176 3500 $1,400,000 $2,625,000 $1,225,000
21 0.6319613586 3500 $1,400,000 $2,625,000 $1,225,000
22 0.6036038238 3500 $1,400,000 $2,625,000 $1,225,000
23 0.427406749 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
24 0.0248374174 1000 $400,000 $750,000 $350,000
25 0.7510073278 3500 $1,400,000 $2,625,000 $1,225,000
26 0.9907010496 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
27 0.2667320893 2000 $800,000 $1,500,000 $700,000
28 0.9918750326 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
29 0.9013246067 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
30 0.9518980012 5000 $2,000,000 $3,750,000 $1,750,000
 Utilidad S1 s2 S3 S4 S5 S6
$35,350,000 $35,350,000 35350000 35350000 35350000 35350000 35350000
S7 S8 S9 S10 Promedio
35350000 35350000 35350000 35350000 $35,350,000