RELACION ENTRE TOTAL CONS.

Y ED 1986 - 2004
250,000.0

200,000.0

f(x) = 85041.9720181671 exp( 0.040731714142013 x )

R²
f(x)==0.918096500669648
5033.08771929825 x + 80791.8596491228
R² = 0.952352064098648

150,000.0
MWh

100,000.0

50,000.0

0.0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Axis Title

TOTAL CONS MWh Linear (TOTAL CONS MWh) Exponential (TOTAL CONS MWh) ED MWh
 Proyección del Factor de carga 2005 - 2007
0.6

f(x) = 0.000925868514516 x² − 0.007245315212563 x + 0.304173342022665

0.5 R² = 0.959331571375309

f(x) = 0.243671511848824 exp( 0.03464940773484 x )

R² = 0.893627057550089

0.4
Factor de Carga

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20
 CENTRALES ELECTRICAS I - PRIMER EXAMEN
En el cuadro adjunto se muestra la información de mercado eléctrico de la ciudad de Chiclayo entre los años 1 986 al 2 004, as
población y PBI.
a) Elabore una revisión de la información y resuelva los valors atípicos, deteerminando su validación o no.
b) Realice el pronóstico de corto plazo de ED y MD (3 años)
c) Realice el pronóstico de mediano plazo (hasta el 2010) agregando la información de tarifS

AÑO TOTAL CONS TOTAL CONS perdidas ED ED MD

MWh MWh % MWh MWh (MW)
1986 77,116.0 77,116.0 0.271 98,014.4 98,014.4 32.0
1987 86,699.0 86,699.0 0.292 112,015.1 112,015.1 35.3
1988 95,570.0 95,570.0 0.264 120,800.5 120,800.5 37.5
1989 96,075.0 96,075.0 0.252 120,285.9 120,285.9 36.9
1990 102,625.0 102,625.0 0.201 123,252.6 123,252.6 37.0
1991 110,319.0 110,319.0 0.232 135,913.0 135,913.0 39.0
1992 121,172.0 121,172.0 0.211 146,739.3 146,739.3 41.9
1993 131,511.0 131,511.0 0.298 170,701.3 170,701.3 47.8
1994 141,575.0 141,575.0 0.301 184,189.1 184,189.1 50.9
1995 138,397.0 138,397.0 0.327 183,652.8 183,652.8 50.3
1996 142,247.0 142,247.0 0.259 179,089.0 179,089.0 48.4
1997 143,047.0 143,047.0 0.260 180,239.2 180,239.2 46.6
1998 141,868.0 141,868.0 0.239 175,774.5 175,774.5 44.0
1999 144,241.0 144,241.0 0.198 172,829.6 172,829.6 41.9
2000 152,963.0 152,963.0 0.136 173,720.1 173,720.1 40.6
2001 155,103.0 155,103.0 0.114 172,831.3 172,831.3 37.8
2002 165,022.0 165,022.0 0.104 182,184.3 182,184.3 38.0
2003 169,084.0 169,084.0 0.100 185,992.4 185,992.4 38.3
2004 176,698.0 176,698.0 0.102 194,721.2 194,721.2 39.0
2005 181,454.0 189,243.6 0.100 199,599.4 212,440.8 43.6
2006 186,487.1 207,410.9 0.099 204,949.3 230,710.7 44.3
2007 191,520.2 228,981.7 0.099 210,480.7 248,936.9 45.1
2008
2009
2010
Fuente: Elaboracion propia (Pronóstico de la máxima demanda a corto plazo)
 EVOLUCION DE LA MD 1986 - 2004
60.0

50.0

40.0
MWh

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

MD (MW)
entre los años 1 986 al 2 004, así como de variables

ación o no.

MD POB PBI Factor de Proyección de la Energía Total Consumid

(MW) Miles Hbt M NS 94 carga
PBI (%)
32.0 327 3,633.0 0.275
35.3 337 3,283.0 0.280 0.9037
37.5 348 3,453.0 0.291 1.0518
36.9 359 3,050.0 0.297 0.8833
37.0 370 3,170.0 0.317 1.012 1.0393
39.0 382 3,143.0 0.323 0.959 0.9915
41.9 394 3,282.0 0.330 1.052 1.0442
47.8 420 3,926.0 0.314 1.024 1.1962
50.9 424 4,177.0 0.318 1.026 1.0639
50.3 428 4,221.0 0.314 1.076 1.0105
48.4 433 4,171.0 0.336 1.065 0.9882
46.6 437 4,220.0 0.350 0.872 1.0117
44.0 442 4,046.0 0.368 1.060 0.9588
41.9 446 4,255.0 0.393 1.0517
40.6 451 4,355.0 0.430 1.0235
37.8 456 4,469.0 0.468 1.0262
38.0 460 4,808.0 0.496 1.0759
38.3 465 5,120.0 0.504 1.0649
39.0 470 4,467.0 0.517 0.8725
41.5 475 4,735.0 0.520 20 0.52 1.0600
43.1 480 4,952.8 0.550 21 0.53 1.0460
45.0 485 5,225.2 0.581 22 0.53 1.0550
490 5,653.7 0.615 23 0.54
495 6,026.9 0.650 24 0.54
500 6,587.3 0.687 25 0.55
1986 - 2004

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

 Proyección de la Energía Total Consumida
ección de la Energía Total Consumida (3 años) (3 años)
Diferencia entre Total Cons. Diferencia entre
Total Cons. (%) ED (%)
Total Cons. y PBI (%) Total Cons. y PBI
1.1243 0.2206 1.1428 1.1243 0.0186
1.1023 0.0505 1.0784 1.1023 -0.0239
1.0053 0.1220 0.9957 1.0053 -0.0095
1.0682 0.0288 1.0247 1.0682 -0.0435
1.0750 0.0835 1.1027 1.0750 0.0277
1.0984 0.0542 1.0797 1.0984 -0.0187
1.0853 -0.1109 1.1633 1.0853 0.0780
1.0765 0.0126 1.0790 1.0765 0.0025
0.9776 -0.0330 0.9971 0.9776 0.0195
1.0278 0.0397 0.9751 1.0278 -0.0527
1.0056 -0.0061 1.0064 1.0056 0.0008
0.9918 0.0330 0.9752 0.9918 -0.0165
1.0167 -0.0349 0.9832 1.0167 -0.0335
1.0605 0.0370 1.0052 1.0605 -0.0553
1.0140 -0.0122 0.9949 1.0140 -0.0191
1.0640 -0.0119 1.0541 1.0640 -0.0098
1.0246 -0.0403 1.0209 1.0246 -0.0037
1.0450 0.1726 1.0469 1.0450 0.0019
1.0710 0.0110 1.0910 1.0710 0.0200
1.0960 0.0500 1.0860 1.0960 -0.0100
1.1040 0.0490 1.0790 1.1040 -0.0250
 TOTAL CONS ED MD POB PBI Tarifa (Cent.US
AÑO MWh MWh (MW) Miles Hbt M NS 94 $/kWh)
1986 77,116.0 98,014.4 32.0 327 3,633.0 8.7
1987 86,699.0 112,015.1 35.3 337 3,283.0 8.9
1988 95,570.0 120,800.5 37.5 348 3,453.0 9.2
1989 96,075.0 120,285.9 36.9 359 3,050.0 9.5
1990 102,625.0 123,252.6 37.0 370 3,170.0 9.7
1991 110,319.0 135,913.0 39.0 382 3,143.0 10.0
1992 121,172.0 146,739.3 41.9 394 3,282.0 10.3
1993 131,511.0 170,701.3 47.8 420 3,926.0 10.5
1994 141,575.0 184,189.1 50.9 424 4,177.0 10.8
1995 138,397.0 183,652.8 50.3 428 4,221.0 8.4
1996 142,247.0 179,089.0 48.4 433 4,171.0 8.6
1997 143,047.0 180,239.2 46.6 437 4,220.0 8.2
1998 141,868.0 175,774.5 44.0 442 4,046.0 7.1
1999 144,241.0 172,829.6 41.9 446 4,255.0 6.8
2000 152,963.0 173,720.1 40.6 451 4,355.0 7.2
2001 155,103.0 172,831.3 37.8 456 4,469.0 6.9
2002 165,022.0 182,184.3 38.0 460 4,808.0 6.6
2003 169,084.0 185,992.4 38.3 465 5,120.0 6.6
2004 176,698.0 194,721.2 39.0 470 4,467.0 7.0
2005 170,355.9 187,391.5 41.0 475 4,735.0 7.6
2006 174,537.4 191,816.6 41.5 480 4,952.8 7.6
2007 178,946.1 196,661.7 42.1 485 5,225.2 7.4
2008 185,141.3 203,285.2 43.1 490 5,653.7 8.2
2009 190,481.4 209,148.6 43.9 495 6,026.9 8.3
2010 196,975.9 216,476.5 45.0 500 6,587.3 8.3
Fuente: Elaboración propia (Proyeccion de ED Y TOTAL CONS. A mediano plazo)

Coeficientes

Coeficientes
Coeficientes no
estandarizad
Modelo estandarizados t
os
Coeficientes B Desv. Error Beta
Constante Co -134025.507 19381.393 -6.915
PBI (valores a precios
constantes - millones de α 6.407 4.020 0.132 1.594
soles)
Población (miles de
habitantes)
γ 564.884 45.823 0.897 12.327
Precio medio de la energía
(Cent.US $/kWh)
β 757.481 1092.665 0.037 0.693
Variable dependiente Total de ventas de energía (GWh)

Coeficientes
 Coeficientes
Coeficientes no
estandarizad
Modelo estandarizados t
os
Coeficientes B Desv. Error Beta
Constante Co -195063.456 27379.149 -7.125
PBI (valores a precios
constantes - millones de α 10.719 5.678 0.212 1.888
soles)
Población (miles de
habitantes)
γ 628.339 64.733 0.957 9.707
Precio medio de la energía
(Cent.US $/kWh)
β 6091.629 1543.554 0.287 3.946

Variable dependiente Total de ventas de energía (GWh)

 Factor de carga
Proyección Tarif
0.275 10 10
0.280 11
0.291 12 9
0.297 13
8 f(x) = 0.261666666666666 x + 6.06944444444445
0.317 14 R² = 0.806225468818142
0.323 15 7
0.330 16

Tarifa (Cent.US $/kWh)

0.314 17 6
0.318 18
5
0.314 2004 6.6
0.336 2003 6.6 4
0.350 2002 6.9
0.368 2001 7.2 3
0.393 2000 6.8
2
0.430 1999 7.1
0.468 1998 8.2 1
0.496 1997 8.6
0.504 1996 8.4 0
0.517 04 03 02 01 00
20 20 20 20 20
0.520 0.1 0.522
0.550 0.099 0.528
0.581 0.099 0.533
0.615 0.098 0.538
0.650 0.098 0.544
0.687 0.099 0.549

Sig.

0.000

0.132

0.000

0.499
(GWh)
 Sig.

0.000

0.079

0.000

0.001

(GWh)
 Proyección Tarifaria

+ 6.06944444444445

01 00 99 98 97 96
20 20 19 19 19 19

-134025.507
 Chart Title
250,000.0

200,000.0

f(x) = 5033.08771929825 x + 80791.8596491228

R² = 0.952352064098648

150,000.0

100,000.0

50,000.0

0.0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

TOTAL CONS Linear (TOTAL CONS) ED

 Tarifa
TOTAL CONS ED MD POB PBI (Cent.US
AÑO MWh MWh (MW) Miles Hbt M NS 94 $/kWh)
1986 77,116.0 98,014.4 32.0 327 3,633.0 6.1
1987 86,699.0 112,015.1 35.3 337 3,283.0 6.1
1988 95,570.0 120,800.5 37.5 348 3,453.0 6.1
1989 96,075.0 120,285.9 36.9 359 3,050.0 6.1
Chart Title
1990 102,625.0 123,252.6 37.0 370 3,170.0 6.1
1991 25.000 135,913.0
110,319.0 39.0 382 3,143.0 6.1
1992 121,172.0
20.000 146,739.3 41.9 394 3,282.0 6.1
1993 131,511.0 170,701.3 47.8 420 3,926.0 6.1
15.000
1994 141,575.0 184,189.1 50.9 424 4,177.0 6.1
1995 10.000
138,397.0 183,652.8 50.3 428 4,221.0 8.4
1996 142,247.0
5.000 179,089.0 48.4 433 4,171.0 8.6
1997 143,047.0 180,239.2 46.6 437 4,220.0 8.2
1998 0.000 4,046.0 7.1
141,868.0 6175,774.5
8 0 2 44.0
4 6 8 442
0 2 4 6 8 0 2 14 16
1999 198 198 199 199 199 199 199 200 200 200 00 200 201 201 6.8
24,255.0 20 20
144,241.0
-5.000 172,829.6 41.9 446
2000 152,963.0 173,720.1 40.6 451 4,355.0 7.2
-10.000
2001 155,103.0 172,831.3 37.8 456 4,469.0 6.9
2002 -15.000
165,022.0 182,184.3 38.0 460 4,808.0 6.6
2003 169,084.0 185,992.4 38.3 465 5,120.0 6.6
2004 176,698.0 194,721.2 39.0 470 4,467.0 7.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
 Factor de PBI
carga
0.275 363,300
0.280 328,300 -9.634
0.291 345,300 5.178
0.297 305,000 -11.671
0.317 317,000 3.934
0.323 314,300 -0.852
0.330 328,200 4.423
0.314 392,600 19.622
0.318 417,700 6.393
0.314 422,100 1.053
0.336 417,100 -1.185
0.350 422,000 1.175
0.368 404,600 -4.123
12 14 16
20 20 20 0.393 425,500 5.166
0.430 435,500 2.350
0.468 446,900 2.618
0.496 480,800 7.586
0.504 512,000 6.489
0.517 446,700 -12.754

6,880,023
7,512,522 9.193
7,910,362 5.296
8,449,884 6.820
8,937,792 5.774
9,782,672 9.453
10,138,533 3.638
10,354,938 2.134
10,809,529 4.390
11,080,412 2.506
11,371,483 2.627
11,835,545 4.081
12,136,388 2.542