SERIES DE TIEMPO

ALUMNO: SAMUEL CARMONA JIMÉNEZ

DIFERENCIAS REGULARES Y DIFERENCIAS ESTACIONALES

Índice de Confianza del Consumidor

Periodo: 2015-2021

Diferencia
Periodo Indicador de Confianza del Consumidor Diferencia Regular Estacional
2015/01 38.06250413    
2015/02 37.49114261 -0.571361522  
2015/03 38.50521887 1.014076262  
2015/04 37.84286442 -0.662354452  
2015/05 38.03169156 0.188827137  
2015/06 39.11192224 1.080230679  
2015/07 38.13188419 -0.980038048  
2015/08 37.3835572 -0.748326994  
2015/09 37.44901186 0.065454667  
2015/10 37.81307911 0.36406725  
2015/11 38.18293526 0.369856146  
2015/12 38.36854021 0.185604952  
2016/01 38.18152108 -0.187019135 0.119016944
2016/02 36.73208356 -1.449437513 -0.759059048
2016/03 36.81443242 0.082348856 -1.690786454
2016/04 36.71385824 -0.100574175 -1.129006177
2016/05 37.48480388 0.770945639 -0.546887675
2016/06 38.349095 0.86429112 -0.762827235
2016/07 36.50604111 -1.843053891 -1.625843078
2016/08 35.6554369 -0.850604214 -1.728120297
2016/09 34.75499425 -0.900442645 -2.694017609
2016/10 35.03189643 0.276902181 -2.781182679
2016/11 34.87517796 -0.156718477 -3.307757302
2016/12 35.47841872 0.603240768 -2.890121486
2017/01 28.66787248 -6.810546245 -9.513648596
2017/02 31.5156096 2.847737123 -5.21647396
2017/03 33.79512537 2.279515764 -3.019307052
2017/04 34.93450073 1.139375364 -1.779357513
2017/05 35.87327868 0.93877795 -1.611525202
2017/06 36.01035704 0.13707836 -2.338737962
2017/07 36.48862729 0.478270251 -0.01741382
2017/08 36.50550083 0.016873536 0.850063929
2017/09 36.78794769 0.282446858 2.032953433
2017/10 36.43698324 -0.350964446 1.405086806
2017/11 36.71679347 0.279810234 1.841615517
2017/12 36.31546277 -0.401330709 0.83704404
2018/01 34.80184721 -1.513615559 6.133974726
2018/02 34.18933918 -0.612508028 2.673729576
2018/03 34.33672644 0.14738726 0.541601072
2018/04 35.61158466 1.274858226 0.677083933
2018/05 36.64787483 1.036290164 0.774596148
2018/06 37.14829957 0.50042474 1.137942528
2018/07 43.34108568 6.192786116 6.852458392
2018/08 43.00568631 -0.335399378 6.500185478
2018/09 42.1327041 -0.872982211 5.344756409
2018/10 42.53301247 0.400308372 6.096029227
2018/11 41.67504079 -0.857971681 4.958247312
2018/12 44.8654385 3.190397711 8.549975733
2019/01 45.92988304 1.064444547 11.12803584
2019/02 47.82614971 1.896266668 13.63681054
2019/03 46.34106776 -1.485081954 12.00434132
2019/04 45.48497389 -0.856093866 9.873389229
2019/05 44.32354694 -1.161426958 7.675672107
2019/06 43.66584232 -0.657704615 6.517542752
2019/07 43.3176958 -0.348146522 -0.023389886
2019/08 43.81921171 0.501515914 0.813525406
2019/09 45.29947349 1.480261776 3.166769393
2019/10 44.0597359 -1.239737585 1.526723436
2019/11 43.84072694 -0.219008963 2.165686154
2019/12 43.7573503 -0.083376639 -1.108088197
2020/01 44.1204541 0.363103801 -1.809428942
2020/02 43.32994279 -0.790511308 -4.496206919
2020/03 42.0592807 -1.270662098 -4.281787064
2020/04 32.22354579 -9.835734909 -13.26142811
2020/05 31.06824391 -1.155301878 -13.25530303
2020/06 31.95718191 0.888937997 -11.70866041
2020/07 34.41734449 2.460162583 -8.90035131
2020/08 35.06478314 0.64743865 -8.754428574
2020/09 36.28204364 1.217260504 -9.017429846
2020/10 37.89123962 1.609195981 -6.16849628
2020/11 37.07674099 -0.81449863 -6.763985947
2020/12 38.74870531 1.671964314 -5.008644994
 2021/01 39.21139535 0.46269004 -4.909058756
2021/02 38.64013696 -0.571258386 -4.689805833
Fuente: Elaboración propia con datos extraídos de INEGI.

Indice de Confianza del Consumidor (2015-2016)

12

10
Confianza del consumidor

Diferencia Regular
6
Diferencia Estacional

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Meses

Fuente: Elaboración propia

Si aplicamos nuevamente diferencias:

Diferencia Regular 2 Diferencia Estacional 2
   
   
1.585437784  
-1.676430714  
0.851181589  
0.891403542  
-2.060268727  
0.231711054  
0.81378166  
0.298612584  
0.005788896  
-0.184251194  
-0.372624087  
-1.262418378  
1.53178637  
-0.182923031  
0.871519814  
0.093345481  
-2.707345011  
0.992449677  
-0.049838432  
1.177344826  
-0.433620658  
0.759959245  
-7.413787013 -9.63266554
9.658283368 -4.457414912
-0.568221358 -1.328520598
-1.1401404 -0.650351336
-0.200597414 -1.064637527
-0.80169959 -1.575910728
0.341191891 1.608429257
-0.461396715 2.578184227
0.265573322 4.726971042
-0.633411305 4.186269484
0.630774681 5.149372819
-0.681140944 3.727165527
-1.11228485 15.64762332
0.901107531 7.890203536
0.759895288 3.560908124
1.127470966 2.456441446
-0.238568062 2.38612135
-0.535865424 3.47668049
5.692361375 6.869872213
 -6.528185494 5.650121549
-0.537582833 3.311802976
1.273290583 4.690942422
-1.258280053 3.116631795
4.048369392 7.712931692
-2.125953164 4.994061113
0.831822121 10.96308096
-3.381348622 11.46274025
0.628988087 9.196305295
-0.305333091 6.90107596
0.503722343 5.379600224
0.309558093 -6.875848278
0.849662436 -5.686660072
0.978745862 -2.177987016
-2.719999361 -4.569305792
1.020728622 -2.792561158
0.135632324 -9.658063929
0.44648044 -12.93746478
-1.15361511 -18.13301745
-0.48015079 -16.28612839
-8.565072811 -23.13481734
8.680433032 -20.93097513
2.044239875 -18.22620317
1.571224585 -8.876961424
-1.812723932 -9.56795398
0.569821853 -12.18419924
0.391935477 -7.695219715
-2.423694611 -8.9296721
2.486462944 -3.900556797
-1.209274274 -3.099629813
-1.033948425 -0.193598913
Fuente: Elaboración propia
 Indice de Confianza del Consumidor en México (2015-2021)
12

10
Confianza del consumidor

Diferencia Regular 2
6
Diferencia Estacional 2

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

Meses

Fuente: Elaboración propia.

Tabla de Varianza:

VARIANZA
Regular 1 Regular 2 Estacional 1 Estacional 2
3.583447013 6.69069365 33.56925301 76.16114076
Fuente: Elaboración propia