Consumo Pronostico Error

n=3 𝑋_𝑡 𝑥 ̃_𝑡 𝑒_𝑡=𝑋_𝑡−𝑋 ̂_

𝑡
1 153,942.90
2 160,723.70
3 167,065.78
4 188,468.61
5 156,206.03
6 162,906.28
7 167,095.04
8 194,893.65
9 158,887.16
10 166,760.19
11 172,629.19
12 198,696.47
13 164,105.95
14 173,698.00
15 178,700.96
16 206,436.09
17 171,402.32
18 181,716.83
19 187,392.32
20 215,463.18
21
Error Absoluto

〖𝐴𝑏𝑠
(𝑒 〗 _𝑡=𝑋_𝑡−𝑋 ̂_𝑡)
ME
MAE
 Consumo Pronostico error
n=3 𝑋_𝑡 𝑥 ̃_𝑡 𝑒_𝑡=𝑋_𝑡−𝑋 ̂_
𝑡
1 153,942.90
2 160,723.70
3 167,065.78
4 188,468.61
5 156,206.03
6 162,906.28
7 167,095.04
8 194,893.65
9 158,887.16
10 166,760.19
11 172,629.19
12 198,696.47
13 164,105.95
14 173,698.00
15 178,700.96
16 206,436.09
17 171,402.32
18 181,716.83
19 187,392.32
20 215,463.18
21
Error Absoluto

〖𝐴𝑏𝑠
t w
(𝑒 〗 _𝑡=𝑋_𝑡−𝑋 ̂_𝑡)
1 0.2
2 0.3
3 0.5
SUMA 1

ME
MAE
 Consumo Pronostico error
Trimestre 𝐴_𝑡 𝐹_𝑡 𝑒_𝑡=𝐴_𝑡−𝐹_𝑡
1 153,942.90
2 160,723.70
3 167,065.78
4 188,468.61
5 156,206.03
6 162,906.28
7 167,095.04
8 194,893.65
9 158,887.16
10 166,760.19
11 172,629.19
12 198,696.47
13 164,105.95
14 173,698.00
15 178,700.96
16 206,436.09
17 171,402.32
18 181,716.83
19 187,392.32
20 215,463.18
21
Error Absoluto
𝐹_𝑡=𝐹_(𝑡−1)+𝑎(𝐴_(𝑡−1)−𝐹
〖𝐴𝑏𝑠
(𝑒 〗 _𝑡=𝐴_𝑡−𝐹_𝑡) Alpha Constante de suavizacion exponencial
Valor menor que 1

ME
MAE
(𝐴_(𝑡−1)−𝐹𝑡−1)