Paso 1: Calacular promedios

A Trimestres
ño
s I II III
2011 1,700.00 940 2,630.00
2012 1,800.00 900 2,900.00
2013 1,850.00 1,100.00 2,930.00

Paso 2: Calcular indices estacionales= Ventas/promedio

Año I II III
2011 0.87516087516 0.48391248391248 1.35392535393
2012 0.90452261307 0.45226130653266 1.45728643216
2013 0.86752637749 0.5158264947245 1.37397420868
PROMEDIO 0.88240328857 0.48400009505655 1.39506199825

Paso 3: Cálculo de ventas basadas en indices estacionales:

pronóstico: I II III
2011 1926.5567366 1942.14837889685 1885.22087426
2012 2039.88360346 1859.5037670289 2078.76065983
2013 2096.54703689 2272.72682636866 2100.26508045 Pro
2,500.00
Paso 4: Desestacionalización de la vestas: Cálculo de fórmula de Regresión Lineal
Añ Ventas2,000.00 f(x) = 23.3765034965035 x
os Trimestre Periodo R² = 0.470416496641691
Desest.1,500.00
Ventas

I 1 1,926.56
1,000.00
II 2 1,942.15
###
III 3 1,885.22500.00
IV 4 2,018.51 0.00 0 2 4
I 5 2,039.88
II 6 1,859.50
###
III 7 2,078.76
IV 8 1,905.48
I 9 2,096.55
II 10 2,272.73
###
III 11 2,100.27
IV 12 2,139.63
 Fórmula cálculada:

Y= 23.377x + 1870.2

Paso 4: Cálulo de la ventas Proyectas Y= (23.377x

b
a

Añ
os Trimestre Periodo:X Ventas

I 13 2,172.59
II 14 2,195.96
###
III 15 2,219.34
IV 16 2,242.72
I 17 2,266.09
II 18 2,289.47
###
III 19 2,312.84
IV 20 2,336.22
I 21 2,359.60
II 22 2,382.97
###
III 23 2,406.35
IV 24 2,429.72
res
Promedio
IV
2,500.00 1,942.50
2,360.00 1,990.00
2,650.00 2,132.50

IV
1.28700128700129
1.18592964824121
1.24267291910903
1.23853461811717

IV
2018.51443103021
1905.47762289252
2139.62529689202 Proyección de Demanda
2,500.00
gresión Lineal
2,000.00 f(x) = 23.3765034965035 x + 1870.15606060606
R² = 0.470416496641691
1,500.00
Ventas

1,000.00

500.00

0.00
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Trimestres
3.377x + 1870.2

Y= (23.377x + 1870.2)*Indice estacional

23.377
1870.2
Indice Ventas
estacional Pronosticos proyectadas
Promedio
0.882403288572 2,174.10 1918.43
0.484000095057 2,197.48 1063.58
1.395061998254 2,220.86 3098.23
1.238534618117 2,244.23 2779.56
0.882403288572 2,267.61 2000.95
0.484000095057 2,290.99 1108.84
1.395061998254 2,314.36 3228.68
1.238534618117 2,337.74 2895.37
0.882403288572 2,361.12 2083.46
0.484000095057 2,384.49 1154.10
1.395061998254 2,407.87 3359.13
1.238534618117 2,431.25 3011.18
 D= 77 +0.43Q

Q
x y X*Y
trimestre factor
invierno 1 0.8 0.8
primavera 2 1.1 2.2
verano 3 1.4 4.2
otoño 4 0.7 2.8

SUMATORIA 10 4 10

25 1 24
n 4

trimestre 96

D= 77 43

pronostico PRONOSTICO AJUSTAD

97 4248 4248
98 4291 4291
99 4334 4334
año 25 100 4377 4377

97
4400

f(x) = 43 x + 77.0000000000009
4350 R² = 1

4300

4250

4200

4150
96.5 97 97.5 98 98.5 99 99.5 100 100.5
4250

4200

4150
96.5 97 97.5 98 98.5 99 99.5 100 100.5
 Q

PRONOSTICO AJUSTADO D
0.8 3398.4
1.1 4720.1
1.4 6067.6
0.7 3063.9

99.5 100 100.5

99.5 100 100.5