Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
1
De acuerdo con el comportamiento descrito, la evolución de la epidemia se modela mediante el
siguiente sistema de ecuaciones diferenciales:
2
Sin embargo, la tasa de letalidad en realidad seria mucho mayor, porque la curva epidemiológica
sobrepasaría por completo las capacidades del sistema de salud del país. El COVID-19 es una
enfermedad que, con asistencia hospitalaria adecuada, es mucho menos dañina y mucho menos
mortal que sin ella: requiere oxígeno, hidratación, antipiréticos, antiinflamatorios y otros
medicamentos y, si se complica, soporte vital. Sin embargo, el sistema de salud del país, según
la información disponible, cuenta apenas con alrededor de 5,781 camas, gran parte de ellas ya
3
ocupadas, y alrededor de 160 respiradores, cifras que pueden considerarse como indicadores de
los recursos del sistema.
El número de respiradores desempeña un papel crítico. Los respiradores son máquinas que
ayudan a las personas a respirar cuando no pueden hacerlo por sí mismas. El aire es
suministrado a través de un tubo en la tráquea del paciente hacia los pulmones, imitando la forma
en que respiramos naturalmente. Los casos graves de complicaciones respiratorias causadas
por el covid-19 requerirán de un respirador para poder suministrar suficiente oxígeno de los
pulmones al resto del organismo. Sin un respirador, los pacientes podrían morir.
El grafico muestra el número de infectados críticos por unidad de tiempo que se producirían, en
exceso al número de respiradores que se ha informado que tiene disponibles el sistema de salud.
El número de infectados críticos, concentrados en algunas semanas, y un gran número de ellos
requerirán respiradores. Si el sistema de salud no tiene capacidad de prestarles atención, una
parte significativa de ellos morirá.
Pero esta descripción del problema sólo se centra en las necesidades de atención que
provendrían directamente del coronavirus. Este problema, el cual por sí mismo alcanzaría
proporciones desmesuradas, alcanzaría una magnitud aún más catastrófica todavía cuando otras
personas en estado crítico, debido a diferentes patologías, lleguen al hospital y no hay camas,
respiradores, unidades de cuidados intensivos o médicos disponibles para atenderlos, porque se
encuentran absolutamente sobrepasados por la atención al alud de casos de Covid-
19.Finalmente, si parte del personal sanitario resulta infectado y se da de baja, ello reduciría aun
mas los recursos del sistema, e incrementaría la tasa de mortalidad.
¨Aplanar la curva¨, en el país, hasta el punto en que los casos que demandan atención
hospitalaria y cuidados intensivos se adecuen a las capacidades del sistema de salud (público y
privado) del país, asumiendo que se hace además un esfuerzo extraordinario por aumentarlas,
implicaría adoptar medidas extremadamente drásticas, como las que se implementaron en la
provincia de Wuhan, China.
En realidad, evitar una crisis humanitaria sin precedentes hubiese requerido adoptar medidas
verdaderamente agresivas desde un primer momento.
La importancia de haber adoptado medidas preventivas desde un inicio, se ponen de manifiesto
en que, una vez que ha iniciado la transmisión comunitaria del virus, incluso reduciendo el número
de reproducción básico por debajo de 1 (a 0.8 por ejemplo), a través de drásticas medidas, se
4
lograría retrasar el pico de la epidemia, y “aplanar la curva”, pero aun así las capacidades del
sistema de salud se verían totalmente sobrepasadas.
5
Susceptibles Infectados Recuperados Fallecidos
0 4,361,238.20 1.00 - - Contaminados Recuperados Fallecidos Po b lac io n Su sc e p tib le
1 4,361,238.04 1.10 0.06 0.00 0.16 0.06 0.00 Ru ral 546,066.2
2 4,361,237.86 1.21 0.13 0.00 0.18 0.07 0.00 Urb an a 3,815,172.0
3 4,361,237.66 1.33 0.21 0.00 0.20 0.08 0.00 T o tal 4,361,238.2
4 4,361,237.45 1.46 0.29 0.00 0.22 0.08 0.00
5 4,361,237.21 1.61 0.38 0.00 0.24 0.09 0.00 Du rac io n e n fe rme d ad 16.0
6 4,361,236.95 1.77 0.48 0.00 0.26 0.10 0.00 T asa in te rac c io n so c ial 13.0
7 4,361,236.66 1.95 0.59 0.00 0.29 0.11 0.00 Pro b ab ilid ad d e c o n tag io 1.3%
8 4,361,236.34 2.14 0.71 0.00 0.32 0.12 0.00 T asa d e Re c u p e rac io n 99.34%
9 4,361,235.99 2.36 0.84 0.01 0.35 0.13 0.00 T asa d e Le talid ad 0.66%
10 4,361,235.61 2.59 0.99 0.01 0.38 0.15 0.00 R0 2.6
11 4,361,235.19 2.85 1.15 0.01 0.42 0.16 0.00
12 4,361,234.73 3.14 1.33 0.01 0.46 0.18 0.00 T o tal d e In fe c tad o s re c u p e rad o s falle c id o s
13 4,361,234.22 3.45 1.52 0.01 0.51 0.19 0.00 3,967,690.2 3,941,493.2 26,186.7
14 4,361,233.65 3.80 1.74 0.01 0.56 0.21 0.00
15 4,361,233.04 4.18 1.97 0.01 0.62 0.24 0.00 A sin to matic o s 1,190,307.1
16 4,361,232.36 4.59 2.23 0.01 0.68 0.26 0.00 Le ve s 1,983,845.1 Recursos del Sistema
17 4,361,231.61 5.05 2.52 0.02 0.75 0.29 0.00 Grave s 595,153.5 5,785 camas
18 4,361,230.79 5.56 2.83 0.02 0.82 0.31 0.00 Critic o s 198,384.5 160 respiradores
19 4,361,229.89 6.12 3.18 0.02 0.90 0.35 0.00 T o tal 3,967,690.2
20 4,361,228.89 6.73 3.56 0.02 0.99 0.38 0.00
21 4,361,227.80 7.40 3.97 0.03 1.09 0.42 0.00 Max imo s e n 1 d ia
22 4,361,226.60 8.14 4.43 0.03 1.20 0.46 0.00 Max imo n u me ro c o n tag iad o s e n 1 d a 87,576.7
23 4,361,225.27 8.95 4.94 0.03 1.32 0.51 0.00 Max imo n u me ro re c u p e rad o s 68,642.8
24 4,361,223.82 9.85 5.49 0.04 1.46 0.56 0.00 Max imo n u me ro falle c id o s 456.1
25 4,361,222.22 10.83 6.11 0.04 1.60 0.61 0.00
26 4,361,220.46 11.92 6.78 0.05 1.76 0.67 0.00
27 4,361,218.52 13.11 7.52 0.05 1.94 0.74 0.00
28 4,361,216.39 14.42 8.33 0.06 2.13 0.81 0.01
29 4,361,214.05 15.86 9.23 0.06 2.34 0.90 0.01
30 4,361,211.47 17.45 10.21 0.07 2.58 0.98 0.01
31 4,361,208.63 19.19 11.30 0.08 2.84 1.08 0.01
32 4,361,205.52 21.11 12.49 0.08 3.12 1.19 0.01
33 4,361,202.08 23.22 13.80 0.09 3.43 1.31 0.01
34 4,361,198.31 25.55 15.24 0.10 3.77 1.44 0.01
35 4,361,194.16 28.10 16.83 0.11 4.15 1.59 0.01
36 4,361,189.59 30.91 18.57 0.12 4.57 1.74 0.01
37 4,361,184.57 34.00 20.49 0.14 5.02 1.92 0.01
38 4,361,179.04 37.40 22.60 0.15 5.53 2.11 0.01
39 4,361,172.97 41.14 24.92 0.17 6.08 2.32 0.02
40 4,361,166.28 45.26 27.48 0.18 6.69 2.55 0.02
41 4,361,158.93 49.78 30.29 0.20 7.35 2.81 0.02
42 4,361,150.84 54.76 33.38 0.22 8.09 3.09 0.02
43 4,361,141.94 60.24 36.78 0.24 8.90 3.40 0.02
44 4,361,132.15 66.26 40.52 0.27 9.79 3.74 0.02
45 4,361,121.38 72.89 44.63 0.30 10.77 4.11 0.03
46 4,361,109.54 80.18 49.16 0.33 11.84 4.53 0.03
47 4,361,096.51 88.19 54.14 0.36 13.03 4.98 0.03
48 4,361,082.18 97.01 59.61 0.40 14.33 5.48 0.04
49 4,361,066.41 106.71 65.64 0.44 15.76 6.02 0.04
50 4,361,049.07 117.38 72.26 0.48 17.34 6.63 0.04
51 4,361,030.00 129.12 79.55 0.53 19.07 7.29 0.05
52 4,361,009.02 142.03 87.57 0.58 20.98 8.02 0.05
53 4,360,985.94 156.23 96.39 0.64 23.08 8.82 0.06
54 4,360,960.55 171.86 106.09 0.70 25.39 9.70 0.06
55 4,360,932.63 189.04 116.76 0.78 27.92 10.67 0.07
56 4,360,901.91 207.94 128.49 0.85 30.72 11.74 0.08
57 4,360,868.12 228.73 141.40 0.94 33.79 12.91 0.09
58 4,360,830.96 251.60 155.60 1.03 37.17 14.20 0.09
59 4,360,790.08 276.76 171.23 1.14 40.88 15.62 0.10
60 4,360,745.11 304.43 188.41 1.25 44.97 17.18 0.11
61 4,360,695.64 334.87 207.31 1.38 49.46 18.90 0.13
62 4,360,641.23 368.35 228.10 1.52 54.41 20.79 0.14
63 4,360,581.39 405.18 250.97 1.67 59.85 22.87 0.15
64 4,360,515.55 445.68 276.13 1.83 65.83 25.16 0.17
65 4,360,443.14 490.24 303.80 2.02 72.41 27.67 0.18
66 4,360,363.49 539.25 334.24 2.22 79.65 30.44 0.20
67 4,360,275.88 593.16 367.72 2.44 87.61 33.48 0.22
68 4,360,179.52 652.45 404.55 2.69 96.37 36.83 0.24
69 4,360,073.52 717.67 445.05 2.96 106.00 40.51 0.27
70 4,359,956.93 789.41 489.61 3.25 116.59 44.56 0.30
71 4,359,828.69 868.31 538.63 3.58 128.24 49.01 0.33
72 4,359,687.63 955.09 592.54 3.94 141.05 53.91 0.36
73 4,359,532.48 1,050.55 651.84 4.33 155.15 59.30 0.39
74 4,359,361.84 1,155.54 717.06 4.76 170.65 65.23 0.43
75 4,359,174.14 1,271.01 788.81 5.24 187.69 71.74 0.48
76 4,358,967.70 1,398.01 867.72 5.77 206.44 78.91 0.52
77 4,358,740.64 1,537.70 954.52 6.34 227.06 86.80 0.58
78 4,358,490.91 1,691.32 1,049.99 6.98 249.73 95.47 0.63
79 4,358,216.24 1,860.28 1,155.00 7.67 274.67 105.01 0.70
80 4,357,914.15 2,046.10 1,270.50 8.44 302.09 115.50 0.77
81 4,357,581.92 2,250.46 1,397.54 9.29 332.24 127.04 0.84
82 4,357,216.52 2,475.20 1,537.26 10.21 365.39 139.73 0.93
83 4,356,814.67 2,722.35 1,690.94 11.23 401.85 153.68 1.02
84 4,356,372.74 2,994.14 1,859.97 12.36 441.93 169.02 1.12
85 4,355,886.73 3,293.01 2,045.87 13.59 486.01 185.90 1.24
86 4,355,352.27 3,621.66 2,250.32 14.95 534.46 204.45 1.36
87 4,354,764.54 3,983.03 2,475.18 16.44 587.73 224.86 1.49
88 4,354,118.26 4,380.37 2,722.48 18.09 646.28 247.30 1.64
89 4,353,407.61 4,817.25 2,994.44 19.89 710.65 271.97 1.81
90 4,352,626.21 5,297.58 3,293.53 21.88 781.40 299.09 1.99
91 4,351,767.05 5,825.64 3,622.45 24.07 859.16 328.91 2.19
92 4,350,822.43 6,406.15 3,984.15 26.47 944.62 361.70 2.40
93 4,349,783.91 7,044.29 4,381.89 29.11 1,038.52 397.74 2.64
94 4,348,642.22 7,745.71 4,819.25 32.02 1,141.70 437.36 2.91
95 4,347,387.16 8,516.66 5,300.16 35.21 1,255.05 480.91 3.20
96 4,346,007.59 9,363.94 5,828.94 38.73 1,379.57 528.78 3.51
97 4,344,491.25 10,295.03 6,410.32 42.59 1,516.34 581.38 3.86
98 4,342,824.72 11,318.13 7,049.52 46.84 1,666.54 639.19 4.25
99 4,340,993.27 12,442.20 7,752.23 51.50 1,831.45 702.71 4.67
100 4,338,980.77 13,677.05 8,524.74 56.64 2,012.49 772.50 5.13
101 4,336,769.56 15,033.45 9,373.91 62.28 2,211.21 849.17 5.64
102 4,334,340.30 16,523.12 10,307.30 68.48 2,429.26 933.39 6.20
103 4,331,671.81 18,158.91 11,333.18 75.30 2,668.49 1,025.88 6.82
104 4,328,740.94 19,954.85 12,460.62 82.79 2,930.87 1,127.44 7.49
105 4,325,522.38 21,926.23 13,699.57 91.02 3,218.56 1,238.95 8.23
106 4,321,988.48 24,089.75 15,060.91 100.06 3,533.91 1,361.34 9.04
107 4,318,109.03 26,463.58 16,556.58 110.00 3,879.44 1,495.67 9.94
108 4,313,851.12 29,067.52 18,199.64 120.92 4,257.91 1,643.06 10.92
109 4,309,178.85 31,923.08 20,004.37 132.91 4,672.28 1,804.73 11.99
110 4,304,053.11 35,053.62 21,986.40 146.07 5,125.73 1,982.02 13.17
111 4,298,431.40 38,484.48 24,162.79 160.53 5,621.71 2,176.39 14.46
112 4,292,267.51 42,243.09 26,552.19 176.41 6,163.89 2,389.40 15.87
113 4,285,511.29 46,359.11 29,174.96 193.83 6,756.22 2,622.77 17.43
114 4,278,108.42 50,864.54 32,053.28 212.96 7,402.88 2,878.32 19.12
115 4,270,000.08 55,793.84 35,211.33 233.94 8,108.33 3,158.05 20.98
116 4,261,122.78 61,184.03 38,675.43 256.95 8,877.30 3,464.10 23.01
117 4,251,408.04 67,074.77 42,474.20 282.19 9,714.74 3,798.76 25.24
118 4,240,782.20 73,508.44 46,638.70 309.86 10,625.85 4,164.50 27.67
119 4,229,166.18 80,530.18 51,202.66 340.18 11,616.02 4,563.96 30.32
120 4,216,475.32 88,187.90 56,202.57 373.40 12,690.85 4,999.92 33.22
121 4,202,619.28 96,532.20 61,677.94 409.78 13,856.04 5,475.37 36.38
122 4,187,501.90 105,616.32 67,671.38 449.60 15,117.38 5,993.44 39.82
123 4,171,021.25 115,495.94 74,228.84 493.17 16,480.65 6,557.45 43.57
124 4,153,069.71 126,228.99 81,399.69 540.81 17,951.54 7,170.85 47.64
125 4,133,534.16 137,875.22 89,236.93 592.88 19,535.55 7,837.24 52.07
126 4,112,296.33 150,495.86 97,797.26 649.75 21,237.84 8,560.33 56.87
127 4,089,233.26 164,152.94 107,141.17 711.83 23,063.07 9,343.91 62.08
128 4,064,218.01 178,908.63 117,333.02 779.54 25,015.25 10,191.85 67.71
129 4,037,120.50 194,824.35 128,441.01 853.34 27,097.51 11,107.99 73.80
130 4,007,808.63 211,959.69 140,537.17 933.71 29,311.86 12,096.16 80.37
131 3,976,149.67 230,371.18 153,697.21 1,021.14 31,658.96 13,160.05 87.43
132 3,942,011.83 250,110.82 168,000.38 1,116.17 34,137.84 14,303.17 95.03
133 3,905,266.26 271,224.46 183,529.14 1,219.34 36,745.57 15,528.76 103.17
134 3,865,789.24 293,749.96 200,368.79 1,331.22 39,477.02 16,839.65 111.88
135 3,823,464.72 317,715.10 218,606.99 1,452.39 42,324.52 18,238.20 121.17
136 3,778,187.15 343,135.47 238,333.12 1,583.45 45,277.56 19,726.14 131.06
137 3,729,864.56 370,012.10 259,637.55 1,724.99 48,322.60 21,304.42 141.54
138 3,678,421.80 398,329.11 282,610.67 1,877.62 51,442.76 22,973.13 152.63
139 3,623,804.02 428,051.32 307,341.93 2,041.93 54,617.78 24,731.26 164.31
140 3,565,980.12 459,122.01 333,918.57 2,218.50 57,823.90 26,576.64 176.57
141 3,504,946.17 491,460.83 362,424.31 2,407.89 61,033.95 28,505.74 189.39
142 3,440,728.64 524,962.05 392,937.88 2,610.62 64,217.53 30,513.57 202.73
143 3,373,387.29 559,493.28 425,531.46 2,827.17 67,341.35 32,593.58 216.55
144 3,303,017.52 594,894.72 460,269.00 3,057.96 70,369.77 34,737.54 230.79
145 3,229,752.09 630,979.23 497,204.53 3,303.35 73,265.42 36,935.53 245.39
146 3,153,762.03 667,533.09 536,380.45 3,563.63 75,990.06 39,175.92 260.28
147 3,075,256.51 704,317.79 577,825.91 3,838.99 78,505.52 41,445.46 275.36
148 2,994,481.71 741,072.73 621,555.24 4,129.52 80,774.81 43,729.33 290.53
149 2,911,718.49 777,518.90 667,566.59 4,435.21 82,763.22 46,011.35 305.69
150 2,827,278.98 813,363.48 715,840.80 4,755.94 84,439.51 48,274.20 320.73
151 2,741,502.02 848,305.22 766,340.50 5,091.45 85,776.96 50,499.70 335.51
152 2,654,747.63 882,040.54 819,009.65 5,441.38 86,754.39 52,669.15 349.93
153 2,567,390.69 914,269.95 873,773.35 5,805.22 87,356.95 54,763.69 363.84
154 2,479,814.04 944,704.73 930,538.08 6,182.35 87,576.65 56,764.74 377.14
155 2,392,401.29 973,073.42 989,192.44 6,572.05 87,412.74 58,654.35 389.69
156 2,305,529.65 999,127.98 1,049,608.13 6,973.44 86,871.64 60,415.70 401.39
157 2,219,562.95 1,022,649.18 1,111,641.49 7,385.58 85,966.70 62,033.36 412.14
158 2,134,845.34 1,043,451.22 1,175,135.22 7,807.42 84,717.61 63,493.73 421.84
159 2,051,695.74 1,061,385.12 1,239,920.50 8,237.85 83,149.60 64,785.28 430.42
160 1,970,403.23 1,076,341.06 1,305,819.25 8,675.67 81,292.51 65,898.75 437.82
161 1,891,223.64 1,088,249.33 1,372,646.57 9,119.66 79,179.59 66,827.33 443.99
162 1,814,377.18 1,097,080.21 1,440,213.25 9,568.56 76,846.46 67,566.68 448.90
163 1,740,047.32 1,102,842.55 1,508,328.22 10,021.11 74,329.86 68,114.97 452.55
164 1,668,380.68 1,105,581.54 1,576,800.96 10,476.03 71,666.65 68,472.74 454.92
165 1,599,487.87 1,105,375.49 1,645,443.75 10,932.08 68,892.80 68,642.79 456.05
166 1,533,445.26 1,102,332.14 1,714,073.75 11,388.05 66,042.61 68,630.00 455.97
167 1,470,297.25 1,096,584.39 1,782,514.80 11,842.76 63,148.02 68,441.05 454.71
168 1,410,059.10 1,088,286.01 1,850,598.98 12,295.10 60,238.14 68,084.18 452.34
169 1,352,720.13 1,077,607.11 1,918,167.94 12,744.02 57,338.97 67,568.96 448.92
170 1,298,246.95 1,064,729.85 1,985,073.87 13,188.53 54,473.19 66,905.93 444.51
171 1,246,586.81 1,049,844.37 2,051,180.29 13,627.73 51,660.13 66,106.41 439.20
172 1,197,670.91 1,033,145.00 2,116,362.50 14,060.79 48,915.90 65,182.21 433.06
173 1,151,417.40 1,014,826.94 2,180,507.89 14,486.97 46,253.51 64,145.39 426.17
174 1,107,734.32 995,083.34 2,243,515.96 14,905.58 43,683.08 63,008.07 418.62
175 1,066,522.16 974,102.79 2,305,298.19 15,316.05 41,212.16 61,782.24 410.47
176 1,027,676.19 952,067.34 2,365,777.80 15,717.87 38,845.97 60,479.61 401.82
177 991,088.46 929,150.86 2,424,889.28 16,110.60 36,587.73 59,111.48 392.73
178 956,649.55 905,517.84 2,482,577.94 16,493.87 34,438.91 57,688.65 383.27
179 924,250.01 881,322.52 2,538,799.27 16,867.40 32,399.55 56,221.34 373.53
180 893,781.53 856,708.34 2,593,518.39 17,230.95 30,468.47 54,719.11 363.55
181 865,137.96 831,807.63 2,646,709.27 17,584.34 28,643.57 53,190.88 353.39
182 838,216.03 806,741.59 2,698,354.12 17,927.46 26,921.94 51,644.86 343.12
183 812,915.90 781,620.38 2,748,442.69 18,260.24 25,300.13 50,088.57 332.78
184 789,141.63 756,543.37 2,796,971.55 18,582.66 23,774.27 48,528.86 322.42
185 766,801.45 731,599.59 2,843,943.43 18,894.73 22,340.18 46,971.89 312.07
186 745,807.92 706,868.14 2,889,366.62 19,196.52 20,993.53 45,423.19 301.78
187 726,078.03 682,418.77 2,933,254.30 19,488.10 19,729.89 43,887.68 291.58
188 707,533.20 658,312.43 2,975,623.97 19,769.60 18,544.82 42,369.68 281.50
189 690,099.27 634,601.84 3,016,496.95 20,041.15 17,433.94 40,872.97 271.55
190 673,706.33 611,332.15 3,055,897.79 20,302.92 16,392.93 39,400.84 261.77
191 658,288.70 588,541.53 3,093,853.87 20,555.10 15,417.64 37,956.09 252.17
192 643,784.67 566,261.72 3,130,394.94 20,797.87 14,504.03 36,541.07 242.77
193 630,136.41 544,518.62 3,165,552.72 21,031.46 13,648.26 35,157.77 233.58
194 617,289.75 523,332.86 3,199,360.52 21,256.07 12,846.66 33,807.80 224.61
195 605,194.01 502,720.30 3,231,852.95 21,471.94 12,095.74 32,492.43 215.87
196 593,801.80 482,692.49 3,263,065.59 21,679.32 11,392.21 31,212.65 207.37
197 583,068.83 463,257.17 3,293,034.76 21,878.43 10,732.97 29,969.17 199.11
198 572,953.75 444,418.69 3,321,797.24 22,069.52 10,115.09 28,762.48 191.09
199 563,417.92 426,178.35 3,349,390.09 22,252.84 9,535.83 27,592.85 183.32
6
7