Documentos de Académico
Documentos de Profesional
Documentos de Cultura
Página 1
10 Probabilidad
Declaraciones de evaluación
5.5 Conceptos de prueba, resultado, resultados igualmente probables, espacio muestral ( U ) y
evento.
La probabilidad de un evento A es P ( A ) 5 n ( A ) / n ( U ).
Los eventos complementarios A y A 9 (no A );
P ( A ) 1 P ( A 9) 5 1.
Uso de diagramas de Venn, diagramas de árbol y tablas de resultados.
5.6 Eventos combinados: P ( A ⋃ B ).
Eventos mutuamente excluyentes: P ( A ⋂ B ) 5 0.
La probabilidad condicional; la definición: P ( A | B ) 5 P ( A ⋂ B ) / P ( B ).
Eventos independientes; la definición: P ( A | B ) 5 P ( A ) 5 P ( A | B 9).
Probabilidades con y sin reemplazo.
5.7 Concepto de variables aleatorias discretas y sus distribuciones de probabilidad.
Valor esperado (media), E ( X ) para datos discretos.
Introducción
10.1 Aleatoriedad
336
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 1/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
Página 2
Figura 10.1
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
proporción
0.3
PAG de cabezas
0.2
0.1
0
1 11 21 31 41 51
Cantidad de tiros
10
Página 3 Probabilidad
Día 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 ...
Ligero rojo verde rojo verde rojo rojo rojo ...
Porcentaje verde 0 50 33.3 50 40 33,3 28,6 ...
El primer día fue rojo, por lo que la proporción de éxito es 0% (0 de 1);
el segundo día fue verde, por lo que la frecuencia es ahora del 50% (1 de 2); el
tercer día volvió a estar rojo, 33.3% (1 de 3), y así sucesivamente. A medida que recogemos
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 2/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
más datos, la nueva medición se convierte en una fracción cada vez más pequeña
de la frecuencia acumulada, por lo tanto, a largo plazo, el gráfico se instala en el
posibilidad real de encontrarlo verde, que en este caso es de aproximadamente 30%. La gráfica
se muestra a continuación.
60
ss
cce50
su40
mi
gramo
30
ejército
norte de reserva
rce20
mi
PAG10
0
1 11 21 31 41 51 61 71 81 91 101111121131141151161171
Numero de veces
En realidad, si ejecuta una simulación por un período más largo, puede ver que
realmente se estabiliza en torno al 30%. Vea el gráfico a continuación.
ss 60
cce50
fo su
40
mi
gramo
30
ejército
norte de reserva
20
rce
mi
PAG10
0
1 101 201 301 401 501
Numero de veces
Tienes que observar aquí que la aleatoriedad en el experimento no es
en el semáforo en sí, ya que está controlado por un temporizador. De hecho, si el sistema
funciona bien, puede ponerse verde a la misma hora todos los días. La aleatoriedad
del evento es el momento en que llego al semáforo.
338
Página 4
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 3/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
Ejemplo 1
Lanza una moneda dos veces (o dos monedas una vez) y registra los resultados. Cuál es el
¿espacio muestral?
Solución
S 5 {hh, ht, th, tt}
339
10
Página 5 Probabilidad
Ejemplo 2
Lanza una moneda dos veces (o dos monedas una vez) y cuenta el número de cabezas
demostración. ¿Cuál es el espacio de muestra?
Solución
S 5 {0, 1, 2}
Un evento simple es el resultado que observamos en una sola repetición (prueba) del
experimentar.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 4/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
Solución
El evento A es el conjunto {1, 3, 5}. El evento B es el conjunto {1, 2, 3, 4}.
6
2
segundo 3
4 1 5
UN
340
Página 6
Ejemplo 4
Supongamos que elegimos una carta al azar de una baraja de 52 cartas,
¿cuál es el espacio de muestra S?
Solución
S 5 {A ♣, 2 ♣, ... K ♣, A ♦ , 2 ♦ , ... K ♦ , A ♥ , 2 ♥ , ... K ♥ , A ♠, 2 ♠, 2 ♠, K ♠}
Ejemplo 5
Lanza una moneda tres veces y registra los resultados. Mostrar el evento 'observando
dos cabezas 'como un diagrama de Venn.
Solución
El espacio de muestra se compone de 8 resultados posibles, como hhh, hht, tht, etc.
S tht
hhh
hht hth
ttt UN
thh
tth
htt
Observar exactamente dos cabezas es un evento con tres elementos: {hht, hth, thh}.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 5/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
341
10
Página 7 Probabilidad
5 En el juego 'Dungeons and Dragons', un dado de cuatro lados con lados marcados con 1,
Se usan 2, 3 y 4 puntos. La inteligencia del jugador se determina rodando
el dado dos veces y agregando 1 a la suma de los puntos.
a) ¿Cuál es el espacio de muestra para tirar el dado dos veces? (Grabe las manchas en el
1 ° y 2 ° tiro).
b) ¿Cuál es el espacio de muestra para la inteligencia del jugador?
6 Una caja contiene tres bolas, azul, verde y amarillo. Ejecutas un experimento donde
dibujas una bola, miras su color y luego la reemplazas y dibujas una segunda bola.
a) ¿Cuál es el espacio de muestra de este experimento?
b) ¿Cuál es el evento de dibujar amarillo primero?
c) ¿Cuál es el evento de dibujar el mismo color dos veces?
7 Repita el mismo ejercicio que en la pregunta 6 anterior, sin reemplazar la primera bola.
8 Nick lanza una moneda tres veces y cada vez observa si es cara o cruz.
a) ¿Cuál es el espacio de muestra de este experimento?
b) ¿Cuál es el evento que las cabezas ocurren más a menudo que las colas?
9 Franz vive en Viena. Él y su familia decidieron que sus próximas vacaciones serán
a Italia o Hungría. Si van a Italia, pueden volar, conducir o tomar el tren.
Si van a Hungría, conducirán o tomarán un bote. Dejar que el resultado de la
experimente la ubicación de sus vacaciones y su modo de viaje, enumere todos
los puntos en el espacio de muestra. También liste el espacio de muestra del evento 'fly to
destino.'
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 6/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
342
Página 8
10
Página 9 Probabilidad
Reglas de probabilidad
344
Página 10
Ejemplo 6
Los datos recopilados por infracciones de tráfico se recopilaron en un determinado país y un
el resumen se da a continuación:
Solución
Cada probabilidad está entre 0 y 1, y las probabilidades suman 1.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 8/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
Por lo tanto, esta es una asignación legítima de probabilidades.
a) La probabilidad de que el delincuente se encuentre en el grupo más joven es del 6%.
b) La probabilidad de que el conductor esté en el grupo de 21 a 39 años es
0.47 1 0.29 5 0.76.
c) La probabilidad de que un conductor sea menor de 40 años es de 1 2 0.18 5 0.82.
Ejemplo 7
Es un hecho sorprendente que cuando las personas crean códigos para sus teléfonos celulares,
los primeros dígitos siguen distribuciones muy similares a la siguiente:
Primer dígito 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Probabilidad 0.009 0.300 0.174 0.122 0.096 0.078 0.067 0.058 0.051 0.045
Solución
a) De la mesa:
P ( A ) 5 0.300
P ( B ) 5 P (6) 1 P (7) 1 P (8) 1 P (9)
5 0.067 1 0.058 1 0.051 1 0.045
5 0.221
P ( C ) 5 P (1) 1 P (3) 1 P (5) 1 P (7) 1P (9)
5 0.300 1 0.122 1 0.078 1 0.058 1 0.045
5 0.603
345
10
Página 11 Probabilidad
En algunos casos, podemos suponer que los resultados individuales son igualmente
probablemente debido a algún equilibrio en el experimento. Lanzar una moneda equilibrada
hace que las cabezas o las colas sean igualmente probables, y que cada una tenga una probabilidad de
50%, y rodando un dado equilibrado estándar da los números del 1 al 6 como
igualmente probable, con cada uno tiene una probabilidad
. de 1 _
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 9/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
6
Supongamos que en el ejemplo 7 consideramos que todos los dígitos tienen la misma probabilidad de
suceder, entonces nuestra mesa sería
Primer dígito 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Probabilidad 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
P ( A ) 5 0.1
P ( B ) 5 P (6) 1 P (7) 1 P (8) 1 P (9) 5 4 3 0.1 5 0.4
P ( C ) 5 P (1) 1 P (3) 1 P (5) 1 P (7) 1 P (9) 5 5 3 0.1 5 0.5
Además, según la regla del complemento, la probabilidad de que el primer dígito no sea 1 es
P ( A 9) 5 1 2 P ( A ) 5 1 2 0.1 5 0.9
Diagramas de árbol
En un experimento para verificar los tipos de sangre de los pacientes, el experimento puede
ser pensado como un experimento en dos etapas: primero identificamos el tipo de
sangre y luego clasificamos el factor Rh 1 o 2.
Los eventos simples en este experimento se pueden contar usando otra herramienta,
el diagrama de árbol , que es extremadamente poderoso y útil para resolver
problemas de probabilidad.
346
Pagina 12
J AJ
UN + B+
segundo J BJ
+ AB +
AB
O J ABJ
+ O+
J OJ
Nuestro espacio de muestra en este experimento es el conjunto {A1, A2, B1, B2, AB1,
AB2, O1, O2} como podemos leer en la última columna.
Estos datos también se pueden organizar en una tabla de probabilidades :
Tipo de sangre
Factor Rh UN segundo
AB O
Positivo A1 B1 AB1 O1
Negativo A2 B2 AB2 O2
Ejercicio 10.3
1 En un experimento simple, las fichas con enteros 1-20 inclusive se colocaron en una caja
y un chip fue elegido al azar.
a) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que el número dibujado sea un múltiplo de 3?
b) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que el número dibujado no sea un múltiplo de 4?
2 La probabilidad de que ocurra un evento A es 0.37.
a) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que no suceda?
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 10/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
b) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que ocurra o no?
3 Estás jugando con una baraja ordinaria de 52 cartas tirando cartas al azar
y mirándolos.
a) Encuentre la probabilidad de que la tarjeta que dibuje sea
(i) el as de corazones
(ii) el as de corazones o cualquier espada
(iii) un as o cualquier corazón
(iv) no es una carta de cara.
b) Ahora dibuja los diez diamantes, póngalo sobre la mesa y dibuje un segundo
tarjeta. ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que la segunda carta sea
(i) el as de corazones?
(ii) ¿no es una tarjeta de cara?
c) Ahora dibujas los diez diamantes, lo regresas al mazo y dibujas un segundo
tarjeta. ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que la segunda carta sea
(i) el as de corazones?
(ii) ¿no es una tarjeta de cara?
347
10
Página 13 Probabilidad
4 El lunes por la mañana, mi clase quería saber cuántas horas pasaron los estudiantes
estudiando el domingo por la noche.
yDetuvieron
le preguntó
a los
a cada
compañeros
uno, "¿Cuántas
de clase
horas
al azar
estudiaste
cuando anoche?"
llegaron Aquí están las respuestas
de la muestra que eligieron el lunes 14 de enero de 2008.
Número de horas 0 1 2 3 4 5
Numero de estudiantes4 12 8 3 2 1
a) Encuentre la probabilidad de que un estudiante haya pasado menos de tres horas estudiando
Noche de domingo.
b) Encuentre la probabilidad de que un alumno estudie durante dos o tres horas.
c) Encuentre la probabilidad de que un alumno estudie menos de seis horas.
5 Lanzamos una moneda y un dado estándar de seis caras y registramos el número y el
cara que aparece. Encontrar
a) la probabilidad de tener un número mayor que 3
b) la probabilidad de que recibamos una cabeza y un 6.
6 Un dado se construye de manera que un 1 tenga la oportunidad de aparecer el doble de veces
que
cualquier otro número.
a) Encuentre la probabilidad de que aparezca un 5.
b) Encuentre la probabilidad de que ocurra un número impar.
7 Te dan dos dados justos para lanzar en un experimento.
a) Su primera tarea es informar los números que observa.
(i) ¿Cuál es el espacio de muestra de su experimento?
(ii) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que los dos números sean iguales?
(iii) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que los dos números difieran en 2?
(iv) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que los dos números no sean iguales?
b) En una segunda etapa, su tarea es informar la suma de los números que aparecen.
(i) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que la suma sea 1?
(ii) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que la suma sea 9?
(iii) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que la suma sea 8?
(iv) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de que la suma sea 13?
8 Los tipos de sangre de las personas pueden ser de cuatro tipos: O, A, B o AB. los
distribución de personas con estos tipos difiere de un grupo de personas a
otro. Aquí están las distribuciones de tipos de sangre para personas elegidas al azar en
los EE. UU., China y Rusia.
Tipo de sangre
O UN segundo
AB
País
NOS 0.43 0.41 0.12 ?
China 0.36 0.27 0.26 0.11
Rusia 0.39 0.34 ? 0.09
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 11/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
(independientemente)
d) ¿Cuál con
es la probabilidad desangre
elegir tipo O?un estadounidense, un chino y un
al azar
Ruso (independientemente) con sangre tipo O?
e) ¿Cuál es la probabilidad de elegir al azar un estadounidense, un chino y un
Ruso (independientemente) con el mismo tipo de sangre?
348
Página 14
P(x) 12
___ 15
___ 12
___ 13
___
52 52 52 52
10
Página 15 Probabilidad
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 12/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
6
segundo 7 5
8
9 do
2 3
1
4 0
Regla 5
Para cualquier dos eventos A y B , P ( A ∪ B ) 5 P ( A ) 1 P ( B ) 2 P ( A ∩ B ).
Como puede ver en el siguiente diagrama, P ( A ∩ B ) se ha agregado dos veces, por lo que
'extra' uno se resta para dar la probabilidad de ( A ∪ B ).
S
UN
A∩B
segundo
A∩B
Página 16
Regla 6
La regla de multiplicación simple.
Considere la siguiente situación: en una escuela grande, el 55% de los estudiantes
son hombres También se sabe que el porcentaje de fumadores entre los hombres
y las mujeres en esta escuela son las mismas, 22%. Cuál es la probabilidad de
seleccionando un estudiante al azar de esta población y el estudiante es un
fumador masculino?
Aplicando solo el sentido común, podemos pensar en el problema en el
De la siguiente manera. Dado que la proporción de fumadores es la misma en ambos
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 13/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
Dos eventos A y B son independientes si saber que uno de ellos ocurre no lo hace
cambiar la probabilidad de que ocurra el otro.
Ejemplo 8
Reconsiderar la situación con el semáforo al comienzo de este
capítulo. La probabilidad de que encuentre el verde claro es del 30%. Cuál es el
probability that I find it green on two consecutive days?
Solución
We will assume that my arrival and finding the light green is a random
event, and that if it turns green on one day it does not influence how it
turns the next day. In that case our calculation is very simple:
P(green the first and second day) 5 P(green first day) 3 P(green second day)
= 0.30 3 0.30 5 0.09.
This rule can also be extended to more than two independent events. por
example, on the assumption of independence, what is the chance that I
find the light green five days of the week? Do not confuse independent
with disjoint. 'Disjoint' means
P(green on five days) 5 0.3 3 0.3 3 0.3 3 0.3 3 0.3 5 0.002 43 that if one of the events occurs
then the other does not occur;
Example 9 while 'independent' means that
Computers bought from a well-known producer require repairs quite knowing one of the events
frequently. It is estimated that 17% of computers bought from the occurs does not influence the
probability of whether the
company require one repair job during the first month of purchase, 7% other occurs or not!
will need repairs twice during the first month, and 4% require three or
more repairs.
351
10
Página 17 Probability
Solución
a) Since all of the events listed are disjoint, the addition rule can be used.
(i) P(no repairs) 5 1 2 P(some repairs) 5 1 2 (0.17 1 0.07 1 0.04)
5 1 2 (0.28) 5 0.72
(ii) P(no more than one repair) 5 P(no repairs or one repair)
5 0.72 1 0.17 5 0.89
(iii) P(some repairs) 5 P(one or two or three or more repairs)
5 0.17 1 0.07 1 0.04 5 0.28
b) Since repairs on the two computers are independent from one another,
the multiplication rule can be used. Use the probabilities of events from
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 14/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
part a) in the calculations.
(i) P(neither will need repair) 5 (0.72)(0.72) 5 0.5184
(ii) P(both will need repair) 5 (0.28)(0.28) 5 0.0784
Conditional probability
Example 10
A public health department wanted to study the smoking behaviour of
high school students. They interviewed 768 students from grades 10–12
and asked them about their smoking habits. They categorized the students
into three categories: smokers (more than 1 pack of 20 cigarettes per week),
occasional smokers (less than 1 pack per week), and non-smokers. los
results are summarized below:
Página 18
Solución
___ 5 0.461
a) P(female) 5 354
768
So, 46.1% of our sample are females.
b) Since we have 127 boys categorized as smokers, the chance of a male
smoker will be
___ 5 0.165
P(male smoker) 5 127
768
c) P(non-smoker) 5 403___ 5 0.525
768
In the above example, what if we know that the selected student is a girl?
Does that influence the probability that the selected student is a non-
smoker? Yes, it does!
Knowing that the selected student is a female changes our choices. los
'revised' sample space is not made up of all students anymore. It is only the
female students. The chance of finding a non-smoker among the females is
189
___ 5 0.534, ie 53.4% of the females are non-smokers as compared to
354
the 52.5% of non-smokers in the whole population.
This probability is called a conditional probability, and we write this as
P(non-smoker | female) 5 189 ___ .
354
We read this as, ' Probability of selecting a non-smoker given that we have
selected a female '.
The conditional probability of A given B , P( A | B ), is the probability of the
event A , updated on the basis of the knowledge that the event B occurred.
Suppose that A is an event with probability P( A ) 5 p 0, and that
A ∩ B 5 Ø ( A and B are disjoint). Then if we learn that B occurred we
know A did not occur, so we should revise the probability of A to be zero,
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 15/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
segundo UN
UN segundo
353
10
Página 19 Probability
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 16/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
P(non-smoker | female) 3 P(female) 5 P(female and non-smoker)
5 P(female∩non-smoker).
The previous discussion is an example of the multiplication rule of any
two events A and B .
Multiplication rule
Given any events A and B , the probability that both events happen is given by
P( A ∩ B ) 5 P( A | B ) 3 P( B )
354
Página 20
Example 11
In a psychology lab, researchers are studying the colour preferences of
young children. Six green toys and four red toys (identical apart from
colour) are placed in a container. The child is asked to select two toys at
random. What is the probability that the child chooses two red toys?
Solución
To solve this problem, we will use a tree diagram.
First choice Second choice Outcome
rojo()3
9 RR
rojo()10
4
Verde(9) 6 RG
rojo(9) 4
GRAMO
Green()106
GG
Verde(9) 5
P( A ∩ B )
When P( B ) ? 0, the conditional probability of A given B_______
isP(P(BA) | B ) 5
UN A∩B segundo
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 17/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
10
Página 21 Probability
Example 12
In an experiment to study the phenomenon of colour blindness,
researchers collected information concerning 1000 people in a small town
and categorized them according to colour blindness and gender. Here is a
summary of the findings:
Masculino
Hembra Total
Colour-blind 40 2 42
Not colour-blind 470 488 958
Total 510 490 1000
What is the probability that a person is colour-blind given that the person
is a woman?
Solución
To answer this question, we notice that we do not have to search the whole
population for this event. We limit our search to the women. We have 490
women. As we only need to consider women, then when we search for
colour blindness, we only look for the women who are colour-blind, ie the
intersection. Here we only have two women. Therefore, the chance we get a
colour-blind person given the person is a woman is
P( C ∩ W ) n ( C ∩ W )
P( C | W ) 5 _________5 ________ 5 0.004, where C is for colour-
P( W ) n(W)
blind and W for woman.
Notice here that we used the frequency rather than the probability.
However, these are equivalent since dividing by n ( S ) will transform the
frequency into a probability.
n (C∩W)
________
n ( C ∩ W ) n(S)
________ 5 _________ P( C ∩ W )
5 _________5 P( C | W ).
n(W) n (
_____W ) P( W )
n(S)
Example 13
AUA, a national airline, are known for their punctuality. La probabilidad de que
a regularly scheduled flight departs on time is P( D ) 5 0.83, the probability
that it arrives on time is P( A ) 5 0.92, and the probability that it arrives and
departs on time, P( A ∩ D ) 5 0.78. Find the probability that a flight
a) arrives on time given that it departed on time
b) departs on time given that it arrived on time.
Solución
a) The probability that a flight arrives on time given that it departed on
time is
P( A ∩ D ) ____
P( A | D ) 5________ 5 0.78
P( D ) 0.83 5 0.94
b) The probability that a flight departs on time given that it arrived on time
P( D ∩ A ) ____
P( D | A ) 5________ 5 0.78 5 0.85
P( A ) 0.92
356
Página 22
Independence
Two events are independent if learning that one occurred does not affect
the chance that the other occurred. That is, if P( A | B ) 5 P( A ), and vice
versa.
This means that if we apply our definition to the general multiplication
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 18/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
rule, then
P( A ∩ B ) = P( A | B ) 3 P( B ) 5 P( A ) 3 P( B )
which is the multiplication rule for independent events we studied earlier.
These results give us some helpful tools in checking the independence of
eventos.
Example 14
Take another look at the AUA situation in Example 13. Are the events of
arriving on time ( A ) and departing on time ( D ) independent?
Solución
We can answer this question in two different ways:
a) P( A ) 5 0.92 and we found that P( A | D ) 5 0.94. Since the two values
are not the same, we can say that the two events are not independent.
b) Alternately, P( A ∩ D ) 5 0.78 and
P( A ) 3 P( D ) 5 0.92 3 0.83 5 0.76 P( A ∩ D ).
Example 15
In many countries, the police stop drivers on suspicion of drunk driving.
The stopped drivers are given a breath test, a blood test or both. In a
country where this problem is vigorously dealt with, the police records
show the following:
81% of the drivers stopped are given a breath test, 40% a blood test, and
25% both tests.
a) What is the probability that a suspected driver is given
(i) a test?
(ii) exactly one test?
(iii) no test?
b) Are giving the two tests independent?
Both
0.04 Breath (0.81)
357
10
Página 23 Probability
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 19/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
probability is 0.15
since we know that1the
0.56 5 0.71.
union To two
of the approach
eventsitstill
differently,
contains the
intersection, we can subtract the probability of the intersection
from that of the union: 0.96 2 0.25 5 0.71.
(iii) To receive no test is equivalent to the complement of the union of
the events. Hence, P(no test) 5 1 2 P(1 test) 5 1 2 0.96 5 0.04.
b) To check for independence, we can use any of the two methods we tried
antes de. Since all the necessary probabilities are given, we can use the
product rule. If they were independent, then
P(both tests) 5 P(breath) 3 P(blood) 5 0.81 3 0.40 5 0.324,
but P(both tests) 5 0.25. Therefore, the events of receiving a
breath test and a blood test are not independent.
Exercise 10.4
3 People with O-negative blood type are universal donors, ie they can donate
blood to individuals with any blood type. Only 8% of people have O-negative.
a) One person randomly appears to give blood. What is the probability that
he/she does not have O-negative?
b) Two people appear independently to give blood. What is the probability that
(i) both have O-negative?
(ii) at least one of them has O-negative?
(iii) only one of them has O-negative?
c) Eight people appear randomly to give blood. What is the probability that at
least one of them has O-negative?
358
Página 24
4 PIN numbers for cellular phones usually consist of four digits that are not
necessarily different.
a) How many possible PINs are there?
b) You don't want to consider the pins that start with 0. What is the probability
that a PIN chosen at random does not start with a zero?
c) What is the probability that a PIN contains at least one zero?
d) Given a PIN with at least one zero, what is the probability that it starts with a
zero?
5 An urn contains six red balls and two blue ones. We make two draws and each
time we put the ball back after marking its colour.
a) What is the probability that at least one of the balls is red?
b) Given that at least one is red, what is the probability that the second one is
red?
c) Given that at least one is red, what is the probability that the second one is
blue?
6 Two dice are rolled and the numbers on the top face are observed.
a) List the elements of the sample space.
b) Let x represent the sum of the numbers observed. Copy and complete the
following table.
X 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
P( x ) 1 ___
18
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 20/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
c) What is the probability that at least one die shows a 6?
d) What is the probability that the sum is at most 10?
e) What is the probability that a die shows 4 or the sum is 10?
f ) Given that the sum is 10, what is the probability that one of the dice is a 4?
7 A large school has the following numbers categorized by class and gender:
Grade
Grade 9 Grade 10 Grade 11 Grade 12 Total
Género
359
10
Página 25 Probability
8 Some young people do not like to wear glasses. A survey considered a large
number of teenage students as to whether they needed glasses to correct their
vision and whether they used the glasses when they needed to. Here are the
resultados.
Used glasses when needed
Sí No
Need glasses for Sí 0.41 0.15
correct vision No 0.04 0.40
a) Find the probability that a randomly chosen young person from this group
(i) is judged to need glasses
(ii) needs to use glasses but does not use them.
b) From those who are judged to need glasses, what is the probability that
he/she does not use them?
c) Are the events of using and needing glasses independent?
9 Fill in the missing entries in the following table.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 21/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
Practice questions
1 Two independent events A and B are given such that P(A) 5 k, P(B ) 5 k 1 0.3 and
P(A ∩ B ) 5 0.18
a) Find k.
b) Find P(A ∪ B ).
c) Find P(A9 | B9 ).
2 Many airport authorities test prospective employees for drug use, with the intent of
improving efficiency and reducing accidents. This procedure has plenty of opponents
who claim that it creates difficulties for some classes of people and that it prevents
others from getting these jobs even if they were not drug users. The claim depends on
the fact that these tests are not 100% accurate. To test this claim, let us assume that a
360
Página 26
test is 98% accurate in the sense that it identifies a person as a user or non-user 98%
del tiempo. Each job applicant takes this test twice. The tests are done at separate times
and are designed to be independent of each other. What is the probability that
a) a non-user fails both tests?
b) a drug user is detected (ie he/she fails at least one test)?
c) a drug user passes both tests?
3 Communications satellites are difficult to repair when something goes wrong. Uno
satellite works on solar energy and has two systems that provide electricity: the
main system with a probability of failure of 0.002, and a back-up system that works
independently of the main one. It has a failure rate of 0.01. What is the probability that
the systems do not fail at the same time?
4 In a group of 200 students taking the IB examination, 120 take Spanish, 60 take French
and 10 take both.
a) If a student is selected at random, what is the probability that he/she
(i) takes either French or Spanish?
(ii) takes either French or Spanish but not both?
(iii) does not take any French or Spanish?
b) Given that a student takes the Spanish exam, what is the chance that he/she takes
French?
5 In a factory producing disk drives for computers, there are three machines that work
independently to produce one of the components. In any production process, machines are
not 100% fault free. The production after one 'run' from these machines is listed below.
Defective Non-defective
Machine I 6 120
Machine II 4 80
Machine III 10 150
a) A component is chosen at random from the produced lot. Find the probability that
the chosen component is
(i) from machine I
(ii) a defective component from machine II
(iii) non-defective or from machine I
(iv) from machine I given that it is defective.
b) Is the quality of the component dependent on the machine used?
6 At a school, the students are organizing a lottery to raise money for the needy in their
comunidad. The lottery tickets they have consist of small coloured envelopes inside
which there is a small note. The note says: 'You won a prize!' or 'Sorry, try another
ticket.' The envelopes have several colours. They have 70 red envelopes that contain two
prizes, and the rest (130 tickets) contain four other prizes.
a) You want to help this class and you buy a ticket hoping that it does not have a prize.
Additionally, you don't like the red colour. You pick your ticket at random by closing
your eyes. What is the probability that your wish comes true?
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 22/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
b) not
Youwin
are asurprised
prize? – you picked a red envelope. What is the probability that you did
361
10
Página 27 Probability
7 You are given two events A and B with the following conditions
P(A | B ) 5 0.30, P(B | A) 5 0.60, P(A ∩ B ) 5 0.18
a) Find P(B ).
b) Are A and B independent? ¿Por qué?
c) Find P(B ∩ A9 ).
8 In several ski resorts in Austria and Switzerland, the local sports authorities use high
school students as 'ski instructors' to help deal with the surge in demand during
vacations. However, to become an instructor, you have to pass a test and be a senior at
your school. Here are the results of a survey of 120 students in a Swiss school who are
training to become instructors. In this group, there are 70 boys and 50 girls. 74 students
took the test, 32 boys and 16 girls passed the test, and the rest, including 12 girls,
failed the test. 10 of the students, including 6 girls, were too young to take the ski test.
a) Copy and complete the table.
Boys Girls
Passed the ski test 32 dieciséis
Failed the ski test 12
Training, but did not take the test yet
Too young to take the test
10 Martina plays tennis. When she serves, she has a 60% chance of succeeding with her
first serve and continuing the game. She has a 95% chance on the second serve. De
course if both serves are not successful, she loses the point.
a) Find the probability that she misses both serves.
If Martina succeeds with the first serve, her chances of gaining the point against Steffy
is 75%. If she is only successful with the second serve, her chances against Steffy for
that point go down to 50%.
b) Find the probability that Martina wins a point against Steffy.
11 For the events A and B, P(A) 5 0.6, P(B ) 5 0.8 and P(A ∪ B ) 5 1.
Find
a) P(A ∩ B )
b) P(A9 ∪ B9 )
362
Página 28
12 In a survey, 100 students were asked, 'Do you prefer to watch television or play sport?'
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 23/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
Of the 46 boys in the survey, 33 said they would choose sport, while 29 girls made this
choice.
Television
Sport 33 29
Total 46 100
13 Two ordinary, six-sided dice are rolled and the total score is noted.
a) Complete the tree diagram by entering probabilities and listing outcomes.
Resultados
6
not 6
not 6
not 6
b) Find the probability of getting one or more sixes.
14 The following Venn diagram shows a sample space U and events A and B.
U
UN segundo
363
10
Página 29 Probability
15 In a survey of 200 people, 90 of whom were female, it was found that 60 people were
unemployed, including 20 males.
a) Using this information, complete the table below.
b) If a person is selected at random from this group of 200, find the probability that
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 24/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
this person is
(i) an unemployed female
(ii) a male given that the person is employed.
16 A bag contains 10 red balls, 10 green balls and 6 white balls. Two balls are drawn at
random from the bag without replacement. What is the probability that they are of
different colours?
a) Shade the area in the diagram which represents the set B ∩ A9.
n (U) 5 100, n (A) 5 30, n (B ) 5 50, n (A ∪ B ) 5 65.
b) Find n (B ∩ A9 ).
c) An element is selected at random from U. What is the probability that this element
is in B ∩ A 9?
18 The events B and C are dependent, where C is the event 'a student takes chemistry',
and B is the event 'a student takes biology'. It is known that
P(C ) 5 0.4, P(B | C ) 5 0.6, P(B | C9) 5 0.5.
a) Complete the following tree diagram. Química Biología
b) Calculate the probability that a student segundo
takes biology.
c) Given that a student takes biology,
do
what is the probability that the student
takes chemistry? 0.4
B!
segundo
C!
B!
364
Página 30
19 Two fair dice are thrown and the number showing on each is noted. The sum of these
two numbers is S. Find the probability that
a) S is less than 8
b) at least one die shows a 3
c) at least one die shows a 3 given that S is less than 8.
21 Consider events A and B such that P(A) 0, P(A) 1, P(B ) 0 and P(B ) 1.
In each of the situations a) , b) , c) below, state whether A and B are mutually exclusive
(M ), independent (I ), or neither (N ).
a) P(A | B ) 5 P(A)
b) P(A ∩ B ) 5 0
c) P(A ∩ B ) 5 P(A)
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 25/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
E(32) H(28)
un segundo
do
23 A painter has 12 tins of paint. Seven tins are red and five tins are yellow. Two tins are
chosen at random. Calculate the probability that both tins are the same colour.
365
10
Página 31 Probability
L!
W!
L!
b) Calculate the probability that Dumisani will be late for school.
c) Given that Dumisani is late for school, what is the probability that he was woken by
his alarm clock?
25 The diagram shows a circle divided into three
sectors A, B and C. The angles at the centre of
the circle are 90°, 120° and 150°. Sectors A
and B are shaded as shown. UN
The arrow is spun. It cannot land on the lines do
between the sectors. Let A, B, C and S be the 150° 90°
120 °
events defined by
A : Arrow lands in sector A segundo
B : Arrow lands in sector B
C : Arrow lands in sector C
S : Arrow lands in a shaded region.
Find
a) P(B ) b) P(S ) c) P(A | S ).
26 A packet of seeds contains 40% red seeds and 60% yellow seeds. The probability that a
red seed grows is 0.9, and that a yellow seed grows is 0.8. A seed is chosen at random
from the packet.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 26/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
0.9 Grows
rojo
0.4
Does not grow
Grows
Amarillo
366
Página 32
27 Two unbiased six-sided dice are rolled, a red one and a black one. Let E and F be the
eventos
E : the same number appears on both dice
F : the sum of the numbers is 10.
Find
a) P(E )
b) P(F )
c) P(E ∪ F ).
28 The table below shows the subjects studied by 210 students at a college.
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 27/28
25/1/2018 10 Probabilidad
367
https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_f 28/28