Simulacion Montecarlo en Excel

simulación de montecarlo con Excel
PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL
El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

los días un producto perecedero en el mercado, de tal manera UNIDADES VENDIDAS
que las existencias que no se venden en el día constituyen
PRECIO DE VENTA
una perdida neta igual al coste de su adquisición más
1€/unidad en concepto de transporte. PRECIO DE COMPRA
2) DEFINIR VARIABLE NO CONTROLADAS DETE
COSTE DE TRANSPORTE 1 € POR UNID
3) DEFINIR VARIABLES CONTROLADAS
A primera hora de la mañana adquiere las unidades de CANTIDAD A COMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 2
producto que prevé que va a vender. A continuación se va a su 4) CALCULO DE LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
puesto en el mercado, donde permanece hasta las 14 horas.
DE LAS VARIABLE NO CONTROLABLES
Después de esa hora las unidades sobrantes van al
contenedor de basura. 5) INTEGRACION DE LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL M
COMBINAR LOS Nº ALEATORIOS OBTEN
CON LA FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION VA
Y SIMULAR LOS BENEFICIOS EN FUNCIO
TODAS LAS VARIABLES DEL MODELO
Por esta razón, el gerente desea ser muy cuidadoso con las 6) FUNCION DE DISTRIBUCION DE LOS BENEFI
provisiones de ese producto y con tal motivo ha decidido COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIÓN
realizar un modelo de simulación que le informe de cuantas 7) COMPARACION DE LOS BENEFICIOS ESPER
unidades de ese producto debe adquirir cada día. OPTENCION DE MEDIAS E INTERVALOS
PARA CADA CANTIDAD COMPRADA
COMO HERRAMIENTA DE DECISIÓN
Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

serán: (VENTAS x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1 € de transporte)
Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

serán: (DEMANDA x PRECIO DE VENTA) - (COMPRAS x www.economia-excel.com
PRECIO DE COMPRA) - (COMPRAS x 1€ de tansporte)
Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

cantidad no vendida por el precio de compra más los gastos
de transporte.
Los datos históricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Unidades vendidas Nº de días
20 10
21 20
22 30
23 30
24 20
25 10
Los precios de venta han variado cada día y los datos que
nos puede proporcionar son :
Precio de venta Nº de días
10 20
12 30
14 40
16 30
18 10
Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

de la mercancía
Precio de compra Nº de días

5 15
7 25
9 35
11 25
17 10
rlo con Excel
PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:
ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)
NO CONTROLADAS DETERMINISTAS
ANSPORTE 1 € POR UNIDAD
S CONTROLADAS
OMPRAR ( 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 …. ) a optimizar.
UNCION DE DISTRIBUCION
BLE NO CONTROLABLES (ALEATORIAS)
LOS ELEMENTOS EN EL MODELO
S Nº ALEATORIOS OBTENIDOS CON EXCEL
ON DE DISTRIBUCION VAR. ALEATORIAS
S BENEFICIOS EN FUNCION DE LAS
ARIABLES DEL MODELO
RIBUCION DE LOS BENEFICIOS SIMULADOS
MIENTA DE DECISIÓN
LOS BENEFICIOS ESPERADOS
E MEDIAS E INTERVALOS (nivel confianza 95 %)
ANTIDAD COMPRADA
MIENTA DE DECISIÓN
www.economia-excel.com
Empresa: PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL
Objetivo: decidir el nº de unidades de máximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

PRODUCTOS PERECEDEROS SL
Método: simulación de Montecarlo con Excel = método cuantitativo que a partir de una
muestra estadística y una serie de números aleatorios analiza el comportamiento de
sistemas reales no dinámicos.
Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisición <= demanda , ((adquisición x precio de

venta) - (adquisición x precio de compra) - (adquisición x transporte)), (demanda x precio
de venta) - (demanda x precio de compra) - (demanda x transporte) - coste de exceso)
(utilizando notación Excel)
1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

VENTAS PRECIO DE VENTA PRECIO DE COMPRA
uds vendidas nº de días precios nº de días precios nº de días
20 10 10 20 5 15
21 20 12 30 7 25
22 30 14 40 9 35
23 30 16 30 11 25
24 20 18 10 17 10
25 10
2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

coste exceso = Precio adquisición + 1€
3 - Variables controlables:
cantidad de productos a adquirir: 18, 19, 20…. 30
4 - Distribución de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

Demanda Precio venta Precio compra
Pr. Acumulada Demanda nº de días Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Venta nº de días Pr. Suceso Pr. Acumulada P. Compra nº de días Pr. Suceso
0.00 19 0.00 9 0.00 4
0.08 20 10 0.08 0.15 10 20 0.15 0.14 5 15 0.14
0.25 21 20 0.17 0.38 12 30 0.23 0.36 7 25 0.23
0.50 22 30 0.25 0.69 14 40 0.31 0.68 9 35 0.32
0.75 23 30 0.25 0.92 16 30 0.23 0.91 11 25 0.23
0.92 24 20 0.17 1.00 18 10 0.08 1.00 17 10 0.09
1.00 25 10 0.08 130 1.00 110 1.00
120 1.00
A continuación se representa gráficamente el área de probabilidad de cada suceso:
demanda precio de venta precio de compra

0.14
0.23
0.32
0.23
0.09
0.08
0.17
0.25
0.25
0.17
0.08
0.15
0.23
0.31
0.23
0.08
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
prob. Demanda 25 uds prob. Demanda 24 uds
prob. precio compra 17 prob. precio compra 11 prob. precio compra 9
prob. Demanda 23 uds prob. Demanda 22 uds prob. precio vta. 18 prob. precio vta.16 prob. precio vta. 14
prob. precio compra 7 prob. precio compra 5
prob. Demanda 21 uds prob. Demanda 20 uds prob. precio vta. 12 prob. precio vta. 10
5 - Integración de los elementos en el modelo
Se trata de generar una serie de números pseudo-aleatorios mediante Excel, dentro de una distribución uniforme
entre 0 y 1, y buscar el intervalo de números aleatorios asociados a cada suceso a partir de la columna de
probabilidad acumulada. Se realizan 1000 ensayos
Con los datos simulados se calcula el beneficio para las distintas cantidades a adquirir (variables controlables) y
conforme a la fórmula del modelo.
SIMULACIÓN DE BENEFICIOS PARA LAS SIGUIENTES CANTIDADES A COMPRAR
ASIGNACIÓN DE SUCESOS A LOS NUM. ALEATORIOS EXCEL
18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
nº sucesos demanda precio venta precio compra coste compra coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios coste exceso beneficios
1 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
2 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
3 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
4 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
5 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
6 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
7 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
8 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
9 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
10 24 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 11 133 22 122
11 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
12 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
13 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
14 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
15 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
16 22 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 11 -33 22 -44 33 -55 44 -66
17 20 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 6 134 12 128 18 122 24 116 30 110 36 104
18 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
19 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
20 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
21 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
22 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
23 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
24 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
25 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
26 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
27 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
28 23 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 6 86 12 80 18 74
29 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
30 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
31 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
32 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
33 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
34 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
35 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
36 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
37 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
38 25 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 0 200 9 191
39 20 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 9 71 18 62 27 53 36 44 45 35 54 26
40 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
41 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
42 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
43 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
44 22 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 9 167 18 158 27 149 36 140
45 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
46 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
47 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
48 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
49 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
50 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
51 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
52 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
53 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
54 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
55 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
56 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
57 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
58 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
59 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
60 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
61 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
62 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
63 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
64 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
65 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
66 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
67 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
68 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
69 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
70 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
71 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
72 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
73 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
74 24 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 0 240 7 233 14 226
75 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
76 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
77 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
78 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
79 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
80 25 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 6 94
81 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
82 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
83 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
84 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
85 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
86 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
87 23 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 6 155 12 149 18 143
88 21 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 11 115 22 104 33 93 44 82 55 71
89 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
90 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
91 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
92 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
93 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
94 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
95 25 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 0 75 7 68
96 25 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 0 -72 0 -75 13 -88
97 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
98 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
99 25 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 0 216 0 225 6 219
100 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
101 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
102 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
103 21 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 11 -32 22 -43 33 -54 44 -65 55 -76
104 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
105 20 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 11 29 22 18 33 7 44 -4 55 -15 66 -26
106 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
107 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
108 23 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 6 247 12 241 18 235
109 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
110 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
111 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
112 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
113 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
114 20 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 6 174 12 168 18 162 24 156 30 150 36 144
115 21 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 6 78 12 72 18 66 24 60 30 54
116 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
117 21 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 13 29 26 16 39 3 52 -10 65 -23
118 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
119 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
120 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
121 22 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 13 -57 26 -70 39 -83 52 -96
122 20 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 11 69 22 58 33 47 44 36 55 25 66 14
123 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
124 21 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 6 225 12 219 18 213 24 207 30 201
125 20 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 6 94 12 88 18 82 24 76 30 70 36 64
126 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
127 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
128 20 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 13 27 26 14 39 1 52 -12 65 -25 78 -38
129 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
130 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
131 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
132 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
133 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
134 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
135 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
136 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
137 24 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 11 37 22 26
138 21 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65
139 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
140 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
141 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
142 23 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 0 230 7 223 14 216 21 209
143 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
144 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
145 20 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52 65 -65 78 -78
146 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
147 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
148 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
149 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
150 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
151 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
152 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
153 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
154 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
155 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
156 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
157 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
158 24 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 0 -66 0 -69 0 -72 13 -85 26 -98
159 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
160 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
161 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
162 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
163 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
164 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
165 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
166 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
167 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
168 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
169 20 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 11 69 22 58 33 47 44 36 55 25 66 14
170 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
171 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
172 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
173 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
174 25 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 11 139
175 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
176 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
177 25 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 0 25 9 16
178 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
179 21 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 11 31 22 20 33 9 44 -2 55 -13
180 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
181 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
182 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
183 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
184 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
185 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
186 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
187 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
188 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
189 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
190 21 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 6 183 12 177 18 171 24 165 30 159
191 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
192 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
193 25 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 7 143
194 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
195 20 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 7 113 14 106 21 99 28 92 35 85 42 78
196 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
197 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
198 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
199 25 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11
200 20 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55 66 -66
201 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
202 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
203 23 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 7 177 14 170 21 163
204 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
205 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
206 22 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 7 169 14 162 21 155 28 148
207 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
208 21 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 9 117 18 108 27 99 36 90 45 81
209 24 17 5 6 0 198 0 209 0 220 0 231 0 242 0 253 0 264 6 258 12 252
210 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
211 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
212 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
213 23 17 12 13 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 13 79 26 66 39 53
214 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
215 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
216 20 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 13 -73 26 -86 39 -99 52 -112 65 -125 78 -138
217 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
218 20 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 6 74 12 68 18 62 24 56 30 50 36 44
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838 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
839 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
840 23 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 11 -34 22 -45 33 -56
841 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
842 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
843 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
844 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
845 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
846 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
847 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
848 24 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 0 72 7 65 14 58
849 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
850 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
851 21 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 6 78 12 72 18 66 24 60 30 54
852 21 10 12 13 0 -54 0 -57 0 -60 0 -63 13 -76 26 -89 39 -102 52 -115 65 -128
853 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
854 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
855 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
856 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
857 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
858 24 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 0 -21 0 -22 0 -23 0 -24 11 -35 22 -46
859 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
860 23 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 9 129 18 120 27 111
861 22 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 7 125 14 118 21 111 28 104
862 20 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 6 94 12 88 18 82 24 76 30 70 36 64
863 20 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 11 -31 22 -42 33 -53 44 -64 55 -75 66 -86
864 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
865 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
866 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
867 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
868 25 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 9 91
869 24 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 9 135 18 126
870 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
871 22 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 7 81 14 74 21 67 28 60
872 24 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 6 162 12 156
873 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
874 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
875 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
876 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
877 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
878 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
879 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
880 25 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 0 161 0 168 0 175 6 169
881 22 17 6 7 0 180 0 190 0 200 0 210 0 220 7 213 14 206 21 199 28 192
882 21 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 11 73 22 62 33 51 44 40 55 29
883 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
884 21 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 7 161 14 154 21 147 28 140 35 133
885 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
886 25 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 11 39
887 25 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 0 125 6 119
888 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
889 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
890 24 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 9 39 18 30
891 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
892 20 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 6 94 12 88 18 82 24 76 30 70 36 64
893 23 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33
894 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
895 20 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 7 53 14 46 21 39 28 32 35 25 42 18
896 23 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 11 127 22 116 33 105
897 21 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 6 183 12 177 18 171 24 165 30 159
898 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
899 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
900 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
901 24 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 7 89 14 82
902 23 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 0 -44 0 -46 13 -59 26 -72 39 -85
903 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
904 22 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 6 82 12 76 18 70 24 64
905 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
906 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
907 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
908 24 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 13 35 26 22
909 23 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 6 109 12 103 18 97
910 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
911 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
912 21 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 9 75 18 66 27 57 36 48 45 39
913 20 10 10 11 0 -18 0 -19 0 -20 11 -31 22 -42 33 -53 44 -64 55 -75 66 -86
914 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
915 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
916 23 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 0 207 6 201 12 195 18 189
917 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
918 20 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 6 174 12 168 18 162 24 156 30 150 36 144
919 25 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 11 89
920 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
921 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
922 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
923 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
924 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
925 25 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 0 100 7 93
926 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
927 21 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 7 56 14 49 21 42 28 35 35 28
928 25 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 13 37
929 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
930 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
931 22 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 6 104 12 98 18 92 24 86
932 23 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 9 83 18 74 27 65
933 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
934 24 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 0 24 9 15 18 6
935 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
936 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
937 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
938 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
939 23 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39
940 20 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 11 109 22 98 33 87 44 76 55 65 66 54
941 21 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 9 33 18 24 27 15 36 6 45 -3
942 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
943 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
944 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
945 24 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 0 105 0 110 0 115 0 120 6 114 12 108
946 20 11 5 6 0 90 0 95 0 100 6 94 12 88 18 82 24 76 30 70 36 64
947 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
948 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
949 24 15 6 7 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 0 192 7 185 14 178
950 21 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 7 77 14 70 21 63 28 56 35 49
951 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
952 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
953 23 11 6 7 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 7 85 14 78 21 71
954 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
955 25 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 0 50 9 41
956 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
957 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
958 20 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 9 151 18 142 27 133 36 124 45 115 54 106
959 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
960 22 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 7 59 14 52 21 45 28 38
961 21 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 7 119 14 112 21 105 28 98 35 91
962 24 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 9 87 18 78
963 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
964 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
965 22 15 5 6 0 162 0 171 0 180 0 189 0 198 6 192 12 186 18 180 24 174
966 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
967 22 13 8 9 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 9 79 18 70 27 61 36 52
968 21 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44 55 -55
969 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
970 24 10 5 6 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 6 90 12 84
971 22 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 0 154 6 148 12 142 18 136 24 130
972 22 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 11 77 22 66 33 55 44 44
973 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
974 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
975 21 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 9 12 18 3 27 -6 36 -15 45 -24
976 24 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 0 96 11 85 22 74
977 24 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 0 48 13 35 26 22
978 22 15 12 13 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 13 31 26 18 39 5 52 -8
979 22 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 9 13 18 4 27 -5 36 -14
980 21 13 5 6 0 126 0 133 0 140 0 147 6 141 12 135 18 129 24 123 30 117
981 20 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 9 31 18 22 27 13 36 4 45 -5 54 -14
982 22 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 9 35 18 26 27 17 36 8
983 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
984 23 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 11 35 22 24 33 13
985 25 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 0 150 9 141
986 23 10 8 9 0 18 0 19 0 20 0 21 0 22 0 23 9 14 18 5 27 -4
987 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
988 22 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 -13 26 -26 39 -39 52 -52
989 24 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22
990 23 11 8 9 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 0 46 9 37 18 28 27 19
991 24 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 7 137 14 130
992 22 11 10 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 -11 22 -22 33 -33 44 -44
993 23 15 10 11 0 72 0 76 0 80 0 84 0 88 0 92 11 81 22 70 33 59
994 23 10 6 7 0 54 0 57 0 60 0 63 0 66 0 69 7 62 14 55 21 48
995 22 15 8 9 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 9 123 18 114 27 105 36 96
996 23 17 8 9 0 144 0 152 0 160 0 168 0 176 0 184 9 175 18 166 27 157
997 24 17 10 11 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 0 144 11 133 22 122
998 23 13 6 7 0 108 0 114 0 120 0 126 0 132 0 138 7 131 14 124 21 117
999 21 11 12 13 0 -36 0 -38 0 -40 0 -42 13 -55 26 -68 39 -81 52 -94 65 -107
1000 22 13 10 11 0 36 0 38 0 40 0 42 0 44 11 33 22 22 33 11 44 0
6 - Función de distribución de beneficios simulados:
Para comparar, de las 9 simulaciones realizadas, se eligen 3 ( 20, 22 y 24 unidades), se calcula la distribución de beneficios y se representa
gráficamente la probabilidad acumulada.
20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

nº sucesos prob prob acum nº sucesos prob prob acum. nº sucesos prob prob acum
-114 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-113 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-112 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.002 0.002
-111 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
PROB. ACUMULADA
-110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-109 0 0
DISTRIBUCIÓN
0 0
DE
0
BENEFICIOS
0 0 0 0.002
-108
1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-107 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
0.9
-106 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-105 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
0.8
-104 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-103 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
0.7
-102 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
0.6
-100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-99 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
20 unid.
0.5
-98 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-97 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 22 unid.
-96
0.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 24 unid.
-95 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-94 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
0.3
-93 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.002
-92 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0.002 0.004
0.2
-91 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-90 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
0.1
-89 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-88 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
-87
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.004
21
39
66
93
-105
-78
-69
-51
-33
-24
-6
12
30
48
57
75
84
-114
-96
-87
-60
-42
-15
102
111
120
129
138
147
156
165
174
183
192
201
210
219
228
237
246
-86 0 0 0 1 0.002 0.002 0 0 0.004
-85 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.004
-84 0 0 0
BENEFICIO
0
SIMULADO
0 0.002 0 0 0.004
-83 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.004
-82 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 3 0.006 0.01
-81 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-80 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-79 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-78 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-77 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-76 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-75 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-74 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-73 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.01
-72 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 2 0.004 0.014
-71 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.014
-70 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 2 0.004 0.018
-69 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.018
-68 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.018
-67 0 0 0 0 0 0.002 0 0 0.018
-66 0 0 0 6 0.012 0.014 0 0 0.018
-65 0 0 0 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.018
-64 0 0 0 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.018
-63 0 0 0 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.018
-62 0 0 0 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.018
-61 0 0 0 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.018
-60 7 0.014 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.018
-59 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 5 0.01 0.028
-58 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-57 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-56 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-55 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.028
-54 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 3 0.006 0.034
-53 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.034
-52 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 2 0.004 0.038
-51 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.038
-50 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.038
-49 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.038
-48 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 3 0.006 0.044
-47 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.044
-46 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.044
-45 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.044
-44 0 0 0.014 10 0.02 0.034 3 0.006 0.05
-43 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.05
-42 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.05
-41 0 0 0.014 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.05
-40 10 0.02 0.034 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.05
-39 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.034 2 0.004 0.054
-38 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.054
-37 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.054
-36 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.054
-35 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.054
-34 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.054
-33 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.034 7 0.014 0.068
-32 0 0 0.034 3 0.006 0.04 0 0 0.068
-31 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.068
-30 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.068
-29 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.068
-28 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.068
-27 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.04 0 0 0.068
-26 0 0 0.034 2 0.004 0.044 4 0.008 0.076
-25 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.044 0 0 0.076
-24 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.044 4 0.008 0.084
-23 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.044 0 0 0.084
-22 0 0 0.034 7 0.014 0.058 7 0.014 0.098
-21 0 0 0.034 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.098
-20 9 0.018 0.052 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.098
-19 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.098
-18 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.098
-17 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.098
-16 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.098
-15 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.098
-14 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.058 0 0 0.098
-13 0 0 0.052 2 0.004 0.062 5 0.01 0.108
-12 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.062 3 0.006 0.114
-11 0 0 0.052 7 0.014 0.076 9 0.018 0.132
-10 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 0 0 0.132
-9 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 0 0 0.132
-8 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 0 0 0.132
-7 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 0 0 0.132
-6 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 4 0.008 0.14
-5 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 0 0 0.14
-4 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 4 0.008 0.148
-3 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 0 0 0.148
-2 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 0 0 0.148
-1 0 0 0.052 0 0 0.076 0 0 0.148
0 45 0.09 0.142 33 0.066 0.142 8 0.016 0.164
1 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.164
2 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.164
3 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 1 0.002 0.166
4 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 7 0.014 0.18
5 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.18
6 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.18
7 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.18
8 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.18
9 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 10 0.02 0.2
10 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.2
11 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.2
12 0 0 0.142 4 0.008 0.15 0 0 0.2
13 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.15 0 0 0.2
14 0 0 0.142 3 0.006 0.156 8 0.016 0.216
15 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.156 5 0.01 0.226
16 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.226
17 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.156 0 0 0.226
18 0 0 0.142 4 0.008 0.164 2 0.004 0.23
19 0 0 0.142 0 0 0.164 0 0 0.23
20 20 0.04 0.182 0 0 0.164 0 0 0.23
21 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.164 0 0 0.23
22 0 0 0.182 18 0.036 0.2 11 0.022 0.252
23 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.252
24 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.2 3 0.006 0.258
25 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.258
26 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.2 8 0.016 0.274
27 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.274
28 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.2 0 0 0.274
29 0 0 0.182 1 0.002 0.202 0 0 0.274
30 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.202 0 0 0.274
31 0 0 0.182 10 0.02 0.222 0 0 0.274
32 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.222 4 0.008 0.282
33 0 0 0.182 5 0.01 0.232 4 0.008 0.29
34 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.232 0 0 0.29
35 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.232 10 0.02 0.31
36 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.232 5 0.01 0.32
37 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.232 3 0.006 0.326
38 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.232 0 0 0.326
39 0 0 0.182 0 0 0.232 0 0 0.326
40 89 0.178 0.36 0 0 0.232 0 0 0.326
41 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.232 0 0 0.326
42 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.232 4 0.008 0.334
43 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.232 0 0 0.334
44 0 0 0.36 64 0.128 0.36 5 0.01 0.344
45 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.344
46 0 0 0.36 4 0.008 0.368 0 0 0.344
47 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 0 0 0.344
48 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 26 0.052 0.396
49 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 0 0 0.396
50 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 0 0 0.396
51 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 5 0.01 0.406
52 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 6 0.012 0.418
53 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 0 0 0.418
54 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 0 0 0.418
55 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.368 0 0 0.418
56 0 0 0.36 4 0.008 0.376 1 0.002 0.42
57 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.376 8 0.016 0.436
58 0 0 0.36 5 0.01 0.386 0 0 0.436
59 0 0 0.36 0 0 0.386 0 0 0.436
60 18 0.036 0.396 0 0 0.386 0 0 0.436
61 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.386 0 0 0.436
62 0 0 0.396 5 0.01 0.396 2 0.004 0.44
63 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.396 2 0.004 0.444
64 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.444
65 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.444
66 0 0 0.396 11 0.022 0.418 9 0.018 0.462
67 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.418 0 0 0.462
68 0 0 0.396 1 0.002 0.42 0 0 0.462
69 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.42 0 0 0.462
70 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.42 9 0.018 0.48
71 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.42 0 0 0.48
72 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.42 3 0.006 0.486
73 0 0 0.396 5 0.01 0.43 0 0 0.486
74 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.43 11 0.022 0.508
75 0 0 0.396 8 0.016 0.446 0 0 0.508
76 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.446 7 0.014 0.522
77 0 0 0.396 2 0.004 0.45 0 0 0.522
78 0 0 0.396 4 0.008 0.458 0 0 0.522
79 0 0 0.396 0 0 0.458 1 0.002 0.524
80 114 0.228 0.624 0 0 0.458 0 0 0.524
81 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.458 5 0.01 0.534
82 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.458 0 0 0.534
83 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.458 14 0.028 0.562
84 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.458 2 0.004 0.566
85 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.458 8 0.016 0.582
86 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.458 2 0.004 0.586
87 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.458 0 0 0.586
88 0 0 0.624 87 0.174 0.632 0 0 0.586
89 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 0 0 0.586
90 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 0 0 0.586
91 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 0 0 0.586
92 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 5 0.01 0.596
93 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 4 0.008 0.604
94 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 0 0 0.604
95 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 0 0 0.604
96 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 26 0.052 0.656
97 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.632 0 0 0.656
98 0 0 0.624 1 0.002 0.634 1 0.002 0.658
99 0 0 0.624 0 0 0.634 4 0.008 0.666
100 8 0.016 0.64 0 0 0.634 0 0 0.666
101 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.634 0 0 0.666
102 0 0 0.64 2 0.004 0.638 0 0 0.666
103 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.638 0 0 0.666
104 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.638 0 0 0.666
105 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.638 5 0.01 0.676
106 0 0 0.64 5 0.01 0.648 0 0 0.676
107 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.648 0 0 0.676
108 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.648 0 0 0.676
109 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.648 2 0.004 0.68
110 0 0 0.64 4 0.008 0.656 2 0.004 0.684
111 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.684
112 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.684
113 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.656 0 0 0.684
114 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.656 8 0.016 0.7
115 0 0 0.64 4 0.008 0.664 0 0 0.7
116 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.664 1 0.002 0.702
117 0 0 0.64 4 0.008 0.672 0 0 0.702
118 0 0 0.64 0 0 0.672 12 0.024 0.726
119 0 0 0.64 5 0.01 0.682 0 0 0.726
120 87 0.174 0.814 0 0 0.682 1 0.002 0.728
121 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.682 0 0 0.728
122 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.682 0 0 0.728
123 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.682 0 0 0.728
124 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.682 1 0.002 0.73
125 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.682 0 0 0.73
126 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.682 0 0 0.73
127 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.682 1 0.002 0.732
128 0 0 0.814 1 0.002 0.684 0 0 0.732
129 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.684 12 0.024 0.756
130 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.684 0 0 0.756
131 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.684 10 0.02 0.776
132 0 0 0.814 66 0.132 0.816 1 0.002 0.778
133 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.816 0 0 0.778
134 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.816 0 0 0.778
135 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.816 0 0 0.778
136 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.816 0 0 0.778
137 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.816 0 0 0.778
138 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.816 0 0 0.778
139 0 0 0.814 0 0 0.816 0 0 0.778
140 24 0.048 0.862 0 0 0.816 0 0 0.778
141 0 0 0.862 3 0.006 0.822 3 0.006 0.784
142 0 0 0.862 1 0.002 0.824 6 0.012 0.796
143 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.796
144 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.824 24 0.048 0.844
145 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.824 0 0 0.844
146 0 0 0.862 1 0.002 0.826 0 0 0.844
147 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.826 4 0.008 0.852
148 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.826 0 0 0.852
149 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.826 0 0 0.852
150 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.826 0 0 0.852
151 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.826 0 0 0.852
152 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.826 0 0 0.852
153 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.826 0 0 0.852
154 0 0 0.862 20 0.04 0.866 0 0 0.852
155 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.866 6 0.012 0.864
156 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.866 1 0.002 0.866
157 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.866 0 0 0.866
158 0 0 0.862 0 0 0.866 3 0.006 0.872
159 0 0 0.862 3 0.006 0.872 0 0 0.872
160 44 0.088 0.95 0 0 0.872 0 0 0.872
161 0 0 0.95 4 0.008 0.88 0 0 0.872
162 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.88 12 0.024 0.896
163 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.896
164 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.896
165 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.896
166 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.896
167 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.88 0 0 0.896
168 0 0 0.95 1 0.002 0.882 8 0.016 0.912
169 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.912
170 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.912
171 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.882 2 0.004 0.916
172 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.916
173 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.916
174 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.882 0 0 0.916
175 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.882 3 0.006 0.922
176 0 0 0.95 35 0.07 0.952 0 0 0.922
177 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.952 11 0.022 0.944
178 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.952 0 0 0.944
179 0 0 0.95 0 0 0.952 0 0 0.944
180 12 0.024 0.974 0 0 0.952 0 0 0.944
181 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.952 0 0 0.944
182 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.952 0 0 0.944
183 0 0 0.974 2 0.004 0.956 0 0 0.944
184 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.944
185 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.944
186 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 2 0.004 0.948
187 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.948
188 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.948
189 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.948
190 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.948
191 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.948
192 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 6 0.012 0.96
193 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.96
194 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.96
195 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.96
196 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.96
197 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.956 0 0 0.96
198 0 0 0.974 9 0.018 0.974 0 0 0.96
199 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.96
200 6 0.012 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.96
201 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 4 0.008 0.968
202 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.968
203 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.968
204 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.968
205 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.968
206 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 2 0.004 0.972
207 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.972
208 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.972
209 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.972
210 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.972
211 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.972
212 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.972
213 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 2 0.004 0.976
214 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.976
215 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.976
216 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 3 0.006 0.982
217 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.982
218 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.982
219 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.974 0 0 0.982
220 7 0.014 1 6 0.012 0.986 0 0 0.982
221 0 0 1 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.982
222 0 0 1 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.982
223 0 0 1 0 0 0.986 2 0.004 0.986
224 0 0 1 0 0 0.986 0 0 0.986
225 0 0 1 2 0.004 0.99 0 0 0.986
226 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
227 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
228 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
229 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.986
230 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 2 0.004 0.99
231 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
232 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
233 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
234 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
235 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
236 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
237 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
238 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
239 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.99
240 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 2 0.004 0.994
241 0 0 1 0 0 0.99 0 0 0.994
242 0 0 1 5 0.01 1 0 0 0.994
243 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
244 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
245 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
246 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.994
247 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0.002 0.996
248 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
249 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
250 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 0.996
7 - Beneficios esperados:
A partir de los beneficios simulados para cada cantidad comprada obtenemos la variable aleatoria beneficios esperados calculando la media de las
1000 simulaciones, y además obtenemos el intervalo de confianza a un nivel del 95 %.
BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL Nº DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

CANTIDADES 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
BENEFICIO MEDIO 71.46 75.43 79.40 82.20 82.89 80.36 74.51 66.78 57.81
DESVIACIÓN TÍPICA 53.01 55.96 58.90 61.94 65.12 68.02 70.59 72.79 74.34
INTERVALO CONFIANZA 4.65 4.90 5.16 5.43 5.71 5.96 6.19 6.38 6.52
MÁXIMO 76.11 80.33 84.56 87.63 88.59 86.32 80.70 73.16 64.33
B E N E F IC IO M E D IO E N 1 0 0 0 E N S AY.
MÍNIMO 66.81 70.53 74.24 76.78 77.18 74.40 68.32 60.40 51.30
BENEFICIO ESPERADO
100.00
90.00
80.00
70.00
60.00
BENEFICIO MEDIO
50.00 MÁXIMO
40.00 MÍNIMO
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
18 19 20 CANTIDADES
21 COMPRADAS
22 23
SIMULADAS24 25 26
PULSAR F9 PARA RECALCULO ALEATORIO
Decisión:
Los resultados de la simulación indican que la decisión que maximiza el

beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.
Los resultados de la simulación indican que la decisión que maximiza el
beneficio es realizar un pedido de 22 unidades.

Simulacion Montecarlo en Excel

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Simulacion Montecarlo en Excel

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simulación de montecarlo con Excel

PLANTEAMIENTO DEL PROBLEMA FASES PARA DESARROLLAR EL

El gerente de PRODUCTOS PRECEDEROS SL vende todos 1) DEFINIR LAS VARIABLES NO CONTROBLES (

Si vende todo (COMPRAS <= DEMANDA) sus ingresos

Si no vende todo, (COMPRAS > DEMANDA) sus ingresos

Hay un coste de exceso si la DEMANDA < COMPRAS. La

Los datos históricos que puede facilitar son los siguientes:

Asimismo nos puede facilitar el precio de compra unitario

Precio de compra Nº de días

PARA DESARROLLAR EL MODELO:

ABLES NO CONTROBLES (ALEATORIAS)

Objetivo: decidir el nº de unidades de máximo beneficio que debe adquirir la empresa

Modelo: Max Beneficio / Beneficio=si adquisición <= demanda , ((adquisición x precio de

1 - Variables no controlables aleatorias:

2 - Variables no controlables deterministas:

4 - Distribución de probabilidad de las variables no controlables:

A continuación se representa gráficamente el área de probabilidad de cada suceso:

demanda precio de venta precio de compra

5 - Integración de los elementos en el modelo

20 unid. 22 unid. 24 unid.

BENEFICIO, VARIANZA E INTERVALO GENERADO A PARTIR DE EL Nº DE UNIDADES COMPRADAS

PULSAR F9 PARA RECALCULO ALEATORIO

Los resultados de la simulación indican que la decisión que maximiza el

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