UNIVERSIDAD DE QUINTANA ROO

Materia: Plantas de Tratamiento de Aguas Residuales

Docente: Ricardo Snchez

Alumno: Harley Sinclair Lara Gonzlez

Fecha: 10/6/2017

Tema: Proyeccin de Poblaciones

N Ao (t) Poblacin (P) t2 P2
1 1950 464 3,802,500 215,296
2 1960 677 3,841,600 458,329
3 1970 845 3,880,900 714,025
4 1980 1,136 3,920,400 1,290,496
5 1990 1,460 3,960,100 2,131,600
6 2000 1,498 4,000,000 2,244,004
11,850 6,080 23,405,500 7,053,750

n= 6
a= -43,057.38095
b= 22.31429
Proyeccin:
Dado: Ao (t) = 2,020
Calculado: P= a + bt = 2,017 Habitantes
Coeficiente de regresin (r) = 0.98799 Buen ajuste lineal por ser mayor a 0.7
Coeficiente de correlacin (r2) = 0.9761
 t*P Grafica de la regresin con Excel:
904,800
Ao / Poblacin
1,326,920
1,664,650 2,000

2,249,280 1,800

2,905,400 1,600
f(x) = 22.3142857143x - 43057.3809523813
2,996,000 1,400 R = 0.9761276195

12,047,050 1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

ste lineal por ser mayor a 0.75

sin con Excel:

blacin

1990 2000 2010 2020

N AO DE REGISTRO (t) TOTAL DE HABITANTES (P) t2 P2

1 1910 165 3,648,100 27,225

2 1921 183 3,690,241 33,489
3 1930 193 3,724,900 37,249
4 1940 265 3,763,600 70,225
5 1950 285 3,802,500 81,225
6 1960 374 3,841,600 139,876
7 1970 564 3,880,900 318,096
8 1980 783 3,920,400 613,089
9 1990 1,020 3,960,100 1,040,400
10 1995 1,310 3,980,025 1,716,100
11 2000 1,299 4,000,000 1,687,401
12 2005 1,748 4,020,025 3,055,504
23,551 8,189 46,232,391 8,819,879

n= 12
a= -29,437.73669
b= 15.34720
Proyeccin:
Dado: Ao (t) = 2,025
Calculado: P= a + bt = 1,640 Habitantes
Coeficiente de regresin (r) = 0.91914 Buen ajuste lineal por ser may
Coeficiente de correlacin (r2) = 0.8448

Grafica de INEGI vs proyectado

Ao / Habitantes
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
2,000
1,800
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
INEGI Proyecci n
 t*P PROYECCCION DE HABITANTES
AO DE TOTAL DE
315,150 REGISTRO (t) HABITANTES (P)
351,543 2011 1,425
372,490 2012 1,441
514,100 2013 1,456
555,750 2014 1,472
733,040 2015 1,487
1,111,080 2016 1,502
1,550,340 2017 1,518
2,029,800 2018 1,533
2,613,450 2019 1,548
2,598,000 2020 1,564
3,504,740 2021 1,579
16,249,483 2022 1,594

2023 1,610
2024 1,625
2025 1,640
2026 1,656
2027 1,671
2028 1,686
2029 1,702
ste lineal por ser mayor a 0.75 2030 1,717
2031 1,732
 AO DE TOTAL DE
N REGISTRO (t) HABITANTES (P) t2 ln Pi t*lnPi

1 1910 165 3,648,100 5.1059 9,752

2 1921 183 3,690,241 5.2095 10,007
3 1930 193 3,724,900 5.2627 10,157
4 1940 265 3,763,600 5.5797 10,825
5 1950 285 3,802,500 5.6525 11,022
6 1960 374 3,841,600 5.9243 11,612
7 1970 564 3,880,900 6.3351 12,480
8 1980 783 3,920,400 6.6631 13,193
9 1990 1,020 3,960,100 6.9276 13,786
10 1995 1,310 3,980,025 7.1778 14,320
11 2000 1,299 4,000,000 7.1694 14,339
12 2005 1,748 4,020,025 7.4662 14,970
23,551 8,189 46,232,391 74.4737 146,462

n= 12
a= 3.3124E-20
b= 0.02602
Proyeccin:
Dado: Ao (t) = 2,025
Calculado: P= a ebt = 2,515 Habitantes
Coeficiente de regresin (r) = 0.98552 Buen ajuste lineal por ser mayor a 0.75
Coeficiente de correlacin (r2) = 0.9713

Grafica de INEGI vs proyectado

Ao / Habitantes

2,700

2,200

1,700

1,200
2,700

2,200

1,700

1,200

700

200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
INEGI Proyeccin
 (lp Pi)2 PROYECCCION DE HABITANTES
AO DE TOTAL DE
26.0707 REGISTRO (t) HABITANTES (P)
27.1387 2011 1,747
27.6959 2012 1,793
31.1334 2013 1,841
31.9506 2014 1,889
35.0968 2015 1,939
40.1329 2016 1,990
44.3973 2017 2,042
47.9911 2018 2,096
51.5206 2019 2,152
51.3996 2020 2,208
55.7446 2021 2,266
470.2722 2022 2,326
2023 2,387
2024 2,450
2025 2,515
2026 2,581
2027 2,649
2028 2,719
2029 2,791
por ser mayor a 0.75 2030 2,864
2031 2,940
2020 2030 2040
 AO DE TOTAL DE
N REGISTRO (t) HABITANTES (P) ln ti ln ti * Pi (ln ti)2

1 1910 165 7.5549 1,246.55 57.0759

2 1921 183 7.5606 1,383.59 57.1627
3 1930 193 7.5653 1,460.10 57.2334
4 1940 265 7.5704 2,006.17 57.3116
5 1950 285 7.5756 2,159.04 57.3895
6 1960 374 7.5807 2,835.18 57.4670
7 1970 564 7.5858 4,278.38 57.5442
8 1980 783 7.5909 5,943.64 57.6210
9 1990 1,020 7.5959 7,747.81 57.6975
10 1995 1,310 7.5984 9,953.90 57.7357
11 2000 1,299 7.6009 9,873.57 57.7737
12 2005 1,748 7.6034 13,290.74 57.8117
23,551 8,189 90.9827 62,178.68 689.8239

n= 12
a= -2.2667E+05
b= 29,986.64440
Proyeccin:
Dado: Ao (t) = 2,025
Calculado: P= a + b(ln t) = 1,625 Habitantes
Coeficiente de regresin (r) = 0.91675 Buen ajuste lineal por ser mayor a 0.75
Coeficiente de correlacin (r2) = 0.8404

Grafica de INEGI vs proyectado

Ao / Habitantes
2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000
2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
INEGI Proyeccion
 Pi2 PROYECCCION DE HABITANTES
AO DE TOTAL DE
27,225.00 REGISTRO (t) HABITANTES (P)
33,489.00 2011 1,417
37,249.00 2012 1,432
70,225.00 2013 1,447
81,225.00 2014 1,462
139,876.00 2015 1,477
318,096.00 2016 1,491
613,089.00 2017 1,506
1,040,400.00 2018 1,521
1,716,100.00 2019 1,536
1,687,401.00 2020 1,551
3,055,504.00 2021 1,566
8,819,879.00 2022 1,581
2023 1,595
2024 1,610
2025 1,625
2026 1,640
2027 1,655
2028 1,669
2029 1,684
por ser mayor a 0.75 2030 1,699
2031 1,714
2020 2030 2040
 AO DE TOTAL DE
N REGISTRO (t) HABITANTES (P) ln ti ln Pi ln ti * lnPi

1 1910 165 7.5549 5.1059 38.5747

2 1921 183 7.5606 5.2095 39.3868
3 1930 193 7.5653 5.2627 39.8137
4 1940 265 7.5704 5.5797 42.2410
5 1950 285 7.5756 5.6525 42.8209
6 1960 374 7.5807 5.9243 44.9100
7 1970 564 7.5858 6.3351 48.0564
8 1980 783 7.5909 6.6631 50.5789
9 1990 1,020 7.5959 6.9276 52.6210
10 1995 1,310 7.5984 7.1778 54.5397
11 2000 1,299 7.6009 7.1694 54.4935
12 2005 1,748 7.6034 7.4662 56.7687
23,551 8,189 90.9827 74.4737 564.8053

n= 12
a= 1.0969E-165
b= 5.0916E+01
Proyeccin:
Dado: Ao (t) = 2,025
Calculado: P= a tb = 2,457 Habitantes
Coeficiente de regresin (r) = 0.98455 Buen ajuste lineal por ser mayor a 0.75
Coeficiente de correlacin (r2) = 0.9693
Para calcular b, en el denominador en vez de (ti)2 debe

INEGI VS PROYECTADO

Ao / Habitantes
2,700

2,200

1,700
 Ao / Habitantes
2,700

2,200

1,700

1,200

700

200
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
INEGI Proyeccin
 (ln ti)2 (ln Pi)2 PROYECCCION DE HABITANTES
AO DE TOTAL DE
57.0759 26.0707 REGISTRO (t) HABITANTES (P)
57.1627 27.1387 2011 1,726
57.2334 27.6959 2012 1,770
57.3116 31.1334 2013 1,815
57.3895 31.9506 2014 1,862
57.4670 35.0968 2015 1,909
57.5442 40.1329 2016 1,958
57.6210 44.3973 2017 2,008
57.6975 47.9911 2018 2,060
57.7357 51.5206 2019 2,112
57.7737 51.3996 2020 2,166
57.8117 55.7446 2021 2,222
689.8239 470.2722 2022 2,278
2023 2,336
2024 2,396
2025 2,457
2026 2,519
2027 2,583
2028 2,649
2029 2,717
por ser mayor a 0.75 2030 2,786
2031 2,856
denominador en vez de (ti)2 debe ser (ln ti)2
2020 2030 2040
N AO DE REGISTRO (t) TOTAL DE HABITANTES (P) PROYECCCION DE HABITANTES
AO DE
1 1910 165 REGISTRO (t)
2 1921 183 2011
3 1930 193 2012
4 1940 265 2013
5 1950 285 2014
6 1960 374 2015
7 1970 564 2016
8 1980 783 2017
9 1990 1,020 2018
10 1995 1,310 2019
11 2000 1,299 2020
12 2005 1,748 2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
YECCCION DE HABITANTES
TOTAL DE
HABITANTES (P) i= 0.047 QROO
1833.60 i= 0.008 SLP
1848.27
Total de Habitantes (P)
1863.06
2,000
1877.96
1,800
1892.98 1,600

1908.13 1,400
1,200
1923.39 1,000
1938.78 800
600
1954.29
400
1969.92 200

1985.68 0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

2001.57
2017.58
2033.72
2049.99
2066.39
2200.00
2082.92
2100.00
2099.59
2116.38 2000.00

2133.31
1900.00
2150.38
1800.00

1700.00

1600.00
 Datos INEGI PROYECCION
AO DE
REGISTRO TOTAL DE HABITANTES
N (t) (P) Aos Lineal
1 1910 165 2011 1,425
2 1921 183 2012 1,441
3 1930 193 2013 1,456
4 1940 265 2014 1,472
5 1950 285 2015 1,487
6 1960 374 2016 1,502
7 1970 564 2017 1,518
8 1980 783 2018 1,533
9 1990 1,020 2019 1,548
10 1995 1,310 2020 1,564
11 2000 1,299 2021 1,579
12 2005 1,748 2022 1,594
2023 1,610
2024 1,625
Factores de regresin: Proyeccin ao 2031 2025 1,640
Lineal 0.919139125 1,732 2026 1,656
Exponencial 0.985521717 2,940 2027 1,671
Logaritmico 0.916750339 1,714 2028 1,686
Potencial 0.984550749 2,856 2029 1,702
Inters Comp. 2,150 2030 1,717
2031 1,732

GRFICO DE PROYECCIONES
INEGI Li neal Exponenci al
Logari tmi co Potenci a l Interes Compuesto

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500
1,500

1,000

500

0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
 PROYECCIONES:

Inters
Exponencial Logaritmico Potencial Compuesto
1,747 1,417 1,726 1,834
1,793 1,432 1,770 1,848
1,841 1,447 1,815 1,863
1,889 1,462 1,862 1,878
1,939 1,477 1,909 1,893
1,990 1,491 1,958 1,908
2,042 1,506 2,008 1,923
2,096 1,521 2,060 1,939
2,152 1,536 2,112 1,954
2,208 1,551 2,166 1,970
2,266 1,566 2,222 1,986
2,326 1,581 2,278 2,002
2,387 1,595 2,336 2,018
2,450 1,610 2,396 2,034
2,515 1,625 2,457 2,050
2,581 1,640 2,519 2,066
2,649 1,655 2,583 2,083
2,719 1,669 2,649 2,100
2,791 1,684 2,717 2,116
2,864 1,699 2,786 2,133
2,940 1,714 2,856 2,150

IONES
l
puesto
2000 2020 2040