Ao Captura (miles t) Esfuerzo (miles h.a.

) Ao CPUE
1990 2 2 1990 1.00000000
1991 94 83 1991 1.1325301205
1992 212 156 1992 1.358974359
1993 195 162 1993 1.2037037037
1994 383 410 1994 0.9341463415
1995 320 303 1995 1.0561056106
1996 402 396 1996 1.0151515152
1997 366 455 1997 0.8043956044
1998 606 890 1998 0.6808988764
1999 378 755 1999 0.5006622517
2000 319 387 2000 0.8242894057
2001 309 490 2001 0.6306122449
2002 389 766 2002 0.5078328982
2003 277 676 2003 0.4097633136
2004 254 849 2004 0.2991755006
2005 170 388 2005 0.4381443299
2006 97 220 2006 0.4409090909
2007 91 221 2007 0.4117647059
2008 177 281 2008 0.6298932384
2009 320 399 2009 0.8020050125
2010 335 504 2010 0.6646825397
2011 320 508 2011 0.6299212598
2012 380 758 2012 0.5013192612
2013 430 1108 2013 0.3880866426
2014 320 864 2014 0.3703703704
Ao CAPTURA CPUE Sigma
1990 2 1.0 0.2
1991 94 1.1 0.2
1992 212 1.4 0.2
1993 195 1.2 0.2
1994 383 0.9 0.2
1995 320 1.1 0.2
1996 402 1.0 0.2
1997 366 0.8 0.2
1998 606 0.7 0.2
1999 378 0.5 0.2
2000 319 0.8 0.2
2001 309 0.6 0.2
2002 389 0.5 0.2
2003 277 0.4 0.2
2004 254 0.3 0.2
2005 170 0.4 0.2
2006 97 0.4 0.2
2007 91 0.4 0.2
2008 177 0.6 0.2
2009 320 0.8 0.2
2010 335 0.7 0.2
2011 320 0.6 0.2
2012 380 0.5 0.2
2013 430 0.4 0.2
2014 320 0.4 0.2
Modelo de Biomasa Dinamica de Shaeffer
----------------------------------------------------------
cristian,canales,r@pucv,cl

Ao Y Indice Indice_pred Biomasa F

----------------------------------------------------------
1990 2 1 1.28689 2482.13 0.000805759
1991 94 1.1 1.28585 2480.13 0.0379012
1992 212 1.4 1.23758 2387.02 0.0888138
1993 195 1.2 1.14864 2215.47 0.0880174
1994 383 0.9 1.10211 2125.73 0.180173
1995 320 1.1 0.973528 1877.72 0.170419
1996 402 1 0.912462 1759.94 0.228417
1997 366 0.8 0.821455 1584.41 0.231001
1998 606 0.7 0.763094 1471.84 0.411729
1999 378 0.5 0.586271 1130.79 0.33428
2000 319 0.8 0.531455 1025.06 0.311201
2001 309 0.6 0.504041 972.185 0.317841
2002 389 0.5 0.479443 924.741 0.420658
2003 277 0.4 0.410803 792.35 0.349593
2004 254 0.3 0.390875 753.913 0.336909
2005 170 0.4 0.379548 732.066 0.23222
2006 97 0.4 0.409762 790.341 0.122732
2007 91 0.4 0.482989 931.581 0.0976834
2008 177 0.6 0.569247 1097.95 0.161209
2009 320 0.8 0.617873 1191.74 0.268515
2010 335 0.7 0.594026 1145.75 0.292386
2011 320 0.6 0.561787 1083.57 0.295321
2012 380 0.5 0.535873 1033.58 0.367653
2013 430 0.4 0.477167 920.35 0.467213
2014 320 0.4 0.387012 746.461 0.428689

--------------------------------------------------------------------
K r q RMS Brms Frms B/Bo
--------------------------------------------------------------------
2482.13 0.442261 0.00051846 274.438 1241.07 0.221131 0.300734
--------------------
b-hiper log-L
--------------------
1 8.1219

Anlisis de Equilibrio
----------------------------------------------------------
Feq Beq Yeq
----------------------------------------------------------
0 2482.13 0
0.01 2426.01 24.2601
0.02 2369.89 47.3977
0.03 2313.76 69.4128
0.04 2257.64 90.3055
0.05 2201.51 110.076
0.06 2145.39 128.723
0.07 2089.27 146.249
0.08 2033.14 162.651
0.09 1977.02 177.932
0.1 1920.9 192.09
0.11 1864.77 205.125
0.12 1808.65 217.038
0.13 1752.53 227.828
0.14 1696.4 237.496
0.15 1640.28 246.042
0.16 1584.15 253.465
0.17 1528.03 259.765
0.18 1471.91 264.943
0.19 1415.78 268.999
0.2 1359.66 271.932
0.21 1303.54 273.743
0.22 1247.41 274.431
0.23 1191.29 273.996
0.24 1135.17 272.44
0.25 1079.04 269.76
0.26 1022.92 265.959
0.27 966.794 261.034
0.28 910.671 254.988
0.29 854.547 247.819
0.3 798.423 239.527
0.31 742.3 230.113
0.32 686.176 219.576
0.33 630.052 207.917
0.34 573.929 195.136
0.35 517.805 181.232
0.36 461.681 166.205
0.37 405.558 150.056
0.38 349.434 132.785
0.39 293.311 114.391
0.4 237.187 94.8747
0.41 181.063 74.2359
0.42 124.94 52.4746
 0.43 68.816 29.5909
0.44 12.6923 5.58462
----------------------------------------------------------

Proyeccion de la biomasa para distintos niveles

----------------------------------------------------------------
Capturas
0 100 200 300 3000
Biomasa futura 2500
2014 746.461 746.461 746.461 746.461 2000
2015 977.311 877.311 777.311 677.311
1500
2016 1239.35 1028.17 813.428 595.12
1000
2017 1513.79 1194.53 855.282 495.214

BIOMASA
500
2018 1774.98 1368.59 903.201 370.532
0
2019 1998.62 1540.13 957.3 209.941
2020 2170.81 1698.63 1017.39 -5.0635 -500

2021 2291.22 1835.76 1082.91 -307.307 -1000

2022 2369.16 1947.19 1152.89 -760.044 -1500
2023 2416.85 2032.78 1225.95 -1499.11 -2000
2014 2015 2016

Brms

1241.07
 2
biomasa/brms F/Fmrs
1.9999919424 0.00364381
1.9983804298 0.17139705
1.9233564585 0.40163433
1.7851289613 0.39803284
1.7128203889 0.81477947
1.5129847631 0.77066987
1.4180827834 1.0329488 1
1.276648376 1.04463418
1.1859443867 1.86192348
0.9111411927 1.51168312
0.8259485766 1.40731512
0.783344211 1.43734257
0.745115908 1.90230226
0.6384410227 1.58093166 0
0.6074701669 1.523572 0 1
0.5898668085 1.05014675
0.6368222582 0.55501942
0.7506272813 0.44174449
0.884680155 0.72902035
0.9602520406 1.21428022
0.9231953073 1.32222981
0.8730933791 1.33550248
0.8328136205 1.66260271
0.741577832 2.11283357
0.6014656708 1.93862009

Los Puntos Biolgicos de Referencia referidos al

RMS (Frms y Brms)

Para el ajuste del modelo.

1.4
f(x) = 0.93394625x + 0.044228865
1.2 R = 0.8379085696

0.8

0.6
1.2 R = 0.8379085696

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4
 de capturas

3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
BIOMASA

500
0
-500
-1000
-1500
-2000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
aos
 2.5

1.5

0.5

0
0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8
2

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6
 1.4

1.2

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

1.2 1.4 1.6 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
1.4 1.6 1.8 2
1 22 23 24 25 26
index name value
1 log_K 7.82E+00
2 log_r -8.16E+00
3 log_q -7.56E+00
4r 4.42E-01
5K 2.48E+03
6q 5.18E-04
7 RMS 2.74E+02 Limite inferior Limite Superior
8B 2.48E+03 1.79E+03 3.17E+03
9B 2.48E+03 1.79E+03 3.17E+03
10 B 2.39E+03 1.70E+03 3.08E+03
11 B 2.22E+03 1.54E+03 2.89E+03
12 B 2.13E+03 1.48E+03 2.77E+03
13 B 1.88E+03 1.27E+03 2.49E+03
14 B 1.76E+03 1.19E+03 2.33E+03
15 B 1.58E+03 1.05E+03 2.11E+03
16 B 1.47E+03 9.80E+02 1.96E+03
17 B 1.13E+03 6.75E+02 1.59E+03
18 B 1.03E+03 5.92E+02 1.46E+03
19 B 9.72E+02 5.56E+02 1.39E+03
20 B 9.25E+02 5.22E+02 1.33E+03
21 B 7.92E+02 4.00E+02 1.18E+03
22 B 7.54E+02 3.58E+02 1.15E+03
23 B 7.32E+02 3.27E+02 1.14E+03
24 B 7.90E+02 3.71E+02 1.21E+03
25 B 9.32E+02 5.03E+02 1.36E+03
26 B 1.10E+03 6.74E+02 1.52E+03
27 B 1.19E+03 7.86E+02 1.60E+03
28 B 1.15E+03 7.63E+02 1.53E+03
29 B 1.08E+03 7.22E+02 1.45E+03
30 B 1.03E+03 6.89E+02 1.38E+03
31 B 9.20E+02 5.88E+02 1.25E+03
32 B 7.46E+02 4.15E+02 1.08E+03
std,dev
1.39E-01
1 1,9287e-001
0 1,9071e-001
8.53E-02
3.50E+03
3.44E+02
9.89E-05 3.00E+03
1.50E+01
3.44E+02 2.50E+03
3.44E+02
3.44E+02 2.00E+03
3.37E+02
3.21E+02 1.50E+03

3.05E+02
1.00E+03
2.84E+02
2.65E+02 5.00E+02
2.46E+02
2.28E+02 0.00E+00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
2.16E+02
2.08E+02
2.01E+02
Observacion
1.96E+02
1.98E+02 SEGUN ESTA GRAFICA PODEMOS CONCLUIR QUE EXISTE ALTA PROBABILIDAD QUE
2.02E+02 EL ESTADO DE EXPLOTACION SE APROXIME AL COLAPSO , YA SE SE OBSERVA QUE
EL INTERVALO DE CONFIANZA ESTA METIDO EN LA ZONA DE EXPLOTACION .
2.10E+02
2.14E+02
2.12E+02
2.03E+02
1.91E+02
1.81E+02
1.73E+02
1.66E+02
1.66E+02
Brms
1241.07