TABLA.

INFORMACIÓN DEMANDA HISTÓRICA - CONTEXTO ACTUAL

Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18

Demanda real 4965 5300 5478 5690
Demanda insat 900 1038 997 1064
Utilidad perdida S/11,250 S/12,975 S/12,463 S/13,300

Promedio Movil Simple

Demanda real Pronóstico error DAM
Jan-18 4965
Feb-18 5300
Mar-18 5478
Apr-18 5690 5248 442 442
May-18 5200 5490 -290 290
Jun-18 5457 5456 1 1
Jul-18 5662 5449 213 213
Aug-18 5350 5440 -90 90
Sep-18 6010 5490 520 520
Oct-18 5900 5674 226 226
Nov-18 6140 5754 386 386
Dec-18 5490 6017 -527 527

Promedio Movil Ponderado

Demanda real Pronóstico error DAM
Jan-18 4965
Feb-18 5300
Mar-18 5478
Apr-18 5690 5331 359 359
May-18 5200 5559 -359 359
Jun-18 5457 5378 79 79
Jul-18 5662 5439 223 223
Aug-18 5350 5518 -168 168
Sep-18 6010 5449 561 561
Oct-18 5900 5775 125 125
Nov-18 6140 5818 323 323
Dec-18 5490 6054 -564 564

Promedio Suavizado Exponencial alpha

Demanda real Pronóstico error DAM
Jan-18 4965 4965 0 0
Feb-18 5300 4965 335 335
Mar-18 5478 5451 27 27
Apr-18 5690 5491 199 199
 May-18 5200 5780 -580 580
Jun-18 5457 4939 518 518
Jul-18 5662 5691 -29 29
Aug-18 5350 5649 -299 299
Sep-18 6010 5216 794 794
Oct-18 5900 6368 -468 468
Nov-18 6140 5690 450 450
Dec-18 5490 6343 -853 853

DAM ECM PEMA PME

Promedio Móvil Simple 299.4 120126.1 5.2% 1.5%
Promedio Móvil Ponderado 306.6 121541.5 5.4% 0.9%
Suavizado exponencial simple 379.3 218924.2 6.8% 0.0%
 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18
5200 5457 5662 5350 6010 5900 6140
919 1066 1655 1322 1148 1456 1318
S/11,488 S/13,325 S/20,688 S/16,525 S/14,350 S/18,200 S/16,475

(D-P)2 |D-P|/D (D-P)/D

ECM PEMA PME

195364 7.8% 7.8%

84100 5.6% -5.6%
1 0.0% 0.0%
45369 3.8% 3.8%
8100 1.7% -1.7%
270400 8.7% 8.7%
51076 3.8% 3.8%
148996 6.3% 6.3%
277729 9.6% -9.6%

ECM PEMA PME W1 0.20

W2 0.25
W3 0.55

128953 6.3% 6.3%

128881 6.9% -6.9%
6225 1.4% 1.4%
49573 3.9% 3.9%
28342 3.1% -3.1%
314272 9.3% 9.3%
15525 2.1% 2.1%
104006 5.3% 5.3%
318096 10.3% -10.3%

0.45
ECM PEMA PME
0 0.0% 0.0%
112225 6.3% 6.3%
729 0.5% 0.5%
39601 3.5% 3.5%
336400 11.2% -11.2%
268324 9.5% 9.5%
841 0.5% -0.5%
89401 5.6% -5.6%
630436 13.2% 13.2%
219024 7.9% -7.9%
202500 7.3% 7.3%
727609 15.5% -15.5%

FCST
94.8%
94.6%
93.2%
 Dec-18
5490
1397
S/17,463
TABLA 1. INFORMACIÓN INVENTARIO SEMESTRAL PAPEL DECORATIVO

Costo de producción de un tablero decorativo S/ 90.0

Precio promedio de un tablero decorativo S/ 140.0

Demanda
Cost_por
Material Diseño de papel decorativo semestral Stock sistema
pliego
(pliegos)
2508815 BLANCO 2,47X1,85M S/ 19.40 122230 20370
2508822 CHOCOLATE 2,47X1,85M S/ 19.35 51150 17050
2508874 ADANA WENGE2,47X1,85M S/ 18.30 47792 15930
2508853 NEGRO 2,47X1,85M S/ 18.45 40456 13490
2508866 SAFARI 2,47MX1,85M S/ 18.15 32704 10900
2508823 CEREZO AMERICANO 2,47X1,85M S/ 18.20 30490 10160
2508835 HAYA NATURAL 2,47X1,85M S/ 17.65 31182 10390
2508858 PINO 2,47M X 1,85M S/ 17.65 24152 8050
2508843 MADERABLE INTENSO 2,47X1,85M S/ 17.78 22186 7400
2508806 AZUL BALTICO 2,47X1,85M S/ 16.23 16990 5660
2508831 GRIS METALERO 2,47X1,85M S/ 16.23 16124 5370
2508861 ROJO CORAL 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.68 15033 5010
2508830 ALUMINIO 2,47X1,85M S/ 14.56 12840 4280
2508850 NARANJA PASION 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.78 9930 3310
2508844 MAPLE NATURAL 2,47X1,85M S/ 14.98 9910 3300
2508865 ROSADO 2,47X1,85M S/ 14.72 9932 3310
2508828 EBANO 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.86 9008 3000
2508810 AZUL GENCIANO 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.45 7744 2580
2508854 NUEZ AMERICANA 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.78 7560 2520
2508839 LAVANDA 2,47MX1,85M S/ 14.65 8098 2700
2508821 CASTAÑO 2,47X1,85M S/ 14.98 6419 2140
2508871 VERDE OCEANO 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.45 5590 1860
2508805 ASTRAL 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.43 5110 1700
2508872 VERDE LIMON 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.75 4902 1630
2508864 ROJO RUBI 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.68 3918 1310
2508860 ROBLE AMERICANO 2.47X1.85M S/ 15.25 4032 1340
2508812 AZUL LAGO 2.47X1.85M S/ 16.85 3590 1200
2508855 PECANA 2.47X1.85M S/ 14.98 3820 1270
2508800 AMARILLO 2,47X1,85M S/ 14.72 3770 1260
2508877 ZEBRA 2,47X1,85M S/ 16.75 2590 860
2508825 CHERRY 2,47X1,85M S/ 14.82 2824 940
2508848 MORADO 2.47X1.85M S/ 14.82 2688 900
2508868 SAUCO 2,47X1,85M S/ 14.92 2338 780
2508856 PERAL SUPERIOR 2,47X1,85M S/ 15.62 2216 740

TOTAL PROBLEMA
CLASE A 12 4
CLASE B 12 7
CLASE C 10 5
34
 N° ITEMS % ITEMS
A 12 35.3%
B 12 35.3%
C 10 29.4%
34
 E

PROBLEMA S/ 3,018,666.60
Inventario Inventario
Stock Valor de %Inventario
STATUS ERI REAL Valorizado Valorizado
Inventariado Diferencias Valorizado
Sistema Fisico
20370 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 395,178.00 S/ 395,178.00 13.1%
16900 PROBLEMA S/ 2,902.50 S/ 329,917.50 S/ 327,015.00 10.9%
15930 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 291,519.00 S/ 291,519.00 9.7%
13490 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 248,890.50 S/ 248,890.50 8.2%
10900 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 197,835.00 S/ 197,835.00 6.6%
10160 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 184,912.00 S/ 184,912.00 6.1%
10390 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 183,383.50 S/ 183,383.50 6.1%
8000 PROBLEMA S/ 882.50 S/ 142,082.50 S/ 141,200.00 4.7%
7000 PROBLEMA S/ 7,112.00 S/ 131,572.00 S/ 124,460.00 4.4%
4500 PROBLEMA S/ 18,826.80 S/ 91,861.80 S/ 73,035.00 3.0%
5370 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 87,155.10 S/ 87,155.10 2.9%
5010 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 78,556.80 S/ 78,556.80 2.6%
4100 PROBLEMA S/ 2,620.80 S/ 62,316.80 S/ 59,696.00 2.1%
2690 PROBLEMA S/ 9,783.60 S/ 52,231.80 S/ 42,448.20 1.7%
3300 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 49,434.00 S/ 49,434.00 1.6%
3310 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 48,723.20 S/ 48,723.20 1.6%
2600 PROBLEMA S/ 6,344.00 S/ 47,580.00 S/ 41,236.00 1.6%
1800 PROBLEMA S/ 12,051.00 S/ 39,861.00 S/ 27,810.00 1.3%
3000 PROBLEMA S/ 7,574.40 S/ 39,765.60 S/ 47,340.00 1.3%
3200 PROBLEMA S/ 7,325.00 S/ 39,555.00 S/ 46,880.00 1.3%
2140 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 32,057.20 S/ 32,057.20 1.1%
1600 PROBLEMA S/ 4,017.00 S/ 28,737.00 S/ 24,720.00 1.0%
1700 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 26,231.00 S/ 26,231.00 0.9%
1630 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 25,672.50 S/ 25,672.50 0.9%
1310 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 20,540.80 S/ 20,540.80 0.7%
1600 PROBLEMA S/ 3,965.00 S/ 20,435.00 S/ 24,400.00 0.7%
1200 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 20,220.00 S/ 20,220.00 0.7%
1200 PROBLEMA S/ 1,048.60 S/ 19,024.60 S/ 17,976.00 0.6%
2520 PROBLEMA S/ 18,547.20 S/ 18,547.20 S/ 37,094.40 0.6%
860 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 14,405.00 S/ 14,405.00 0.5%
1000 PROBLEMA S/ 889.20 S/ 13,930.80 S/ 14,820.00 0.5%
900 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 13,338.00 S/ 13,338.00 0.4%
780 OK S/ 0.00 S/ 11,637.60 S/ 11,637.60 0.4%
1000 PROBLEMA S/ 4,061.20 S/ 11,558.80 S/ 15,620.00 0.4%

ERI META ERI REAL BRECHA

98% 66.7% 31.3%
95% 41.7% 53.3%
95% 50.0% 45.0%
INV. VALORIZADO% INV. VALORI
S/ 2,362,863.70 78.1%
S/ 472,248.10 15.6%
S/ 190,051.80 6.3%
S/ 3,025,163.60
%Inventario
Valorizado CLASE
Acumulado
13.1% A
24.0% A
33.7% A
41.9% A
48.5% A
54.6% A
60.7% A
65.4% A
69.7% A
72.8% A
75.7% A
78.3% A
80.3% B
82.1% B
83.7% B
85.3% B
86.9% B
88.2% B
89.5% B
90.8% B
91.9% B
92.9% B
93.7% B
94.6% B
95.3% C
95.9% C
96.6% C
97.2% C
97.9% C
98.3% C
98.8% C
99.2% C
99.6% C
100.0% C