Está en la página 1de 23

mes n

Jan-05 1
Feb-05 2
Mar-05 3
Apr-05 4
May-05 5
Jun-05 6
Jul-05 7
Aug-05 8
Sep-05 9
Oct-05 10
Nov-05 11
Dec-05 12
Jan-06 13
Feb-06 14
Mar-06 15
Apr-06 16
May-06 17
Jun-06 18
Jul-06 19
Aug-06 20
Sep-06 21
Oct-06 22
Nov-06 23
Dec-06 24
Jan-07 25
Feb-07 26
Mar-07 27
Apr-07 28
May-07 29
Jun-07 30
Jul-07 31
Aug-07 32
Sep-07 33
Oct-07 34
Nov-07 35
Dec-07 36
Jan-08 1
Feb-08 2
Mar-08 3
Apr-08 4
May-08 5
Jun-08 6
Jul-08 7
Aug-08 8
Sep-08 9
Oct-08 10
Nov-08 11
Dec-08 12
cajas
480
436
482
448
458
489
498
430
444
496
487
525
575
527
540
502
508
573
508
498
485
526
552
587
608
597
612 440.849206 a
603 5.24839125 b
628
605
627
578
585
581
632
656
446.097598
451.345989 Chart Title
700
456.59438
461.842771 600
467.091163
500
472.339554
477.587945 400

300

200
600

500

400
482.836336
300
488.084728
493.333119 200
498.58151
100
503.829901
0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 3
Chart Title
19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente de correlación múltiple 0.873004898080229
Coeficiente de determinación R^2 0.762137552072071
R^2 ajustado 0.755141597721249
Error típico 31.3421307011502
Observaciones 36

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadrados
Regresión 1 107014.698 107014.698
Residuos 34 33399.1913 982.329157
Total 35 140413.889

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t


Intercepción 440.849206349207 10.6689007 41.3209588
Variable X 1 5.24839124839125 0.50284369 10.4374209
F Valor crítico de F
108.939755 3.85336E-12

Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95,0%


Superior 95,0%
1.1935E-30 419.167391 462.531021 419.167391 462.531021
3.85336E-12 4.22648992 6.27029258 4.22648992 6.27029258
mes 2005 2006 2007
Jan-05 480 575 608
Feb-05 436 527 597
Mar-05 482 540 612
Apr-05 448 502 603
May-05 458 508 628
Jun-05 489 573 605
Jul-05 498 508 627
Aug-05 430 498 578
Sep-05 444 485 585
Oct-05 496 526 581
Nov-05 487 552 632
Dec-05 525 587 656

5673 6381 7312


708 931
PRONOSTICO SET
A0 5673 ALPHA 1
T0 820 BETA 0.13658536

AÑO CAJAS AT TT FT ERROR PEMA


2005 5673 5673 708.000001
2006 6381 6381 708.000001 6381 -1.1922E-06 1.86842E-10
2007 7312 7312 738.458537 7089 222.999999 0.03049781
2008 8050.45854
PEMA 2%
480 575 608 1.0153358 1.08133521
436 527 597 0.92226335 0.99106723
482 540 612 1.01956637 1.01551481
448 502 603 0.94764675 0.94405266
458 508 628 0.96879958 0.95533615
489 573 605 1.03437335 1.07757405
498 508 627 1.05341089 0.95533615
430 498 578 0.90957166 0.93653032
444 485 585 0.93918562 0.91208275
496 526 581 1.04918033 0.98918665
487 552 632 1.03014278 1.03808181
525 587 656 1.11052353 1.10390221

472.75 531.75 609.333333


FEP PRONOSTICO
0.997811816193 1.03149428 692
0.979759299781 0.96436329 647
1.004376367615 1.01315251 680
0.989606126915 0.96043518 644
1.030634573304 0.98492343 661
0.992888402626 1.03494527 694
1.028993435449 1.01258016 679
0.948577680525 0.93155989 625
0.960065645514 0.93711134 629
0.953501094092 0.99728936 669
1.037199124726 1.03514124 694
1.07658643326 1.09700406 736

PRONOSTICO 8050.45854

670.871545
480 575 608 L=12
436 527 597
482 540 612
448 502 603
458 508 628
489 573 605
498 508 627
430 498 578
444 485 585
496 526 581
487 552 632
525 587 656

PROMEDIO 472.75 531.75 609.333333 PROMEDIO DEL PROMEDIO

A0 615.527778 T0

T Dt AT Tt It
-11
-10
-9
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0 615.527778 77.5833333
1 480 466.808779 25.8104263 1.030245136104
2 436 452.045726 16.5281227 0.966428846639
3 482 477.051204 18.4675516 1.012284000352
4 448 466.54883 11.8398813 0.962098920902
5 458 464.698662 8.70790441 0.987497985581
6 489 474.404019 8.93609936 1.032726716894
7 498 493.15493 11.1815084 1.011671410157
8 430 461.789066 1.44762223 0.932979893677
9 444 474.277411 3.97349239 0.937941308593
10 496 500.352048 9.02973956 0.993088793038
11 487 471.339218 0.32645131 1.035203346982
12 525 480.220871 2.28368992 1.095300237486
13 575 559.001768 19.7845383 1.030278443201
14 527 546.191447 12.3275642 0.966456037094
15 540 534.334515 6.79469301 1.012308369675
16 502 522.665713 2.57065855 0.962118063554
17 508 515.322824 0.30266086 0.987514942312
18 573 555.724711 9.47646616 1.032759015149
19 508 503.033316 -4.74614877 1.01168398733
20 498 534.660872 3.5753406 0.933002460409
21 485 517.980758 -1.05865406 0.937958348019
22 526 530.548774 2.05882299 0.993111374519
23 552 534.115996 2.40391101 1.03522818882
24 587 536.812971 2.47095747 1.095327551409
25 608 591.020922 14.3072233 1.030297671892
26 597 618.604815 17.3446282 0.966481363671
27 612 605.445349 10.3659743 1.01233134225
28 603 627.624526 13.0685706 0.962145510831
29 628 636.820335 12.1825694 0.987545385364
30 605 586.699463 -2.0710632 1.032777003489
31 627 620.642376 6.16812827 1.011711035856
32 578 620.38901 4.69903415 0.933027343922
33 585 624.577963 4.58233897 0.937984377356
34 581 585.920203 -5.31002753 0.993128447239
35 632 611.378791 1.72914292 1.035253340368
36 656 599.795149 -1.31652432 1.095350704316
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
1 13 25 alpha 1
2 14 26 beta 0.22877761
3 15 27 gamma 0.09994644
4 16 28
5 17 29 Pema 6%
6 18 30
7 19 31
8 20 32
9 21 33
10 22 34
11 23 35
12 24 36

537.944444
FACTORES ESTACIONALES
0.892285449 1.06888361 1.13022824
77.5833333 0.810492616 0.97965507 1.10978003
0.896003305 1.00382113 1.13766395
0.832799752 0.93318187 1.12093359
0.851389032 0.94433543 1.1674068
0.909015801 1.06516575 1.12465145
0.925746153 0.94433543 1.16554787
0.799339048 0.92574615 1.07446039
0.82536404 0.90158009 1.08747289
0.922028297 0.97779614 1.08003718
0.905297945 1.02612827 1.17484251
0.97593721 1.09119075 1.21945678

normalizacio FT' ERROR PEMA


1.03046576
0.96664257
1.01249613
0.96230507
0.98771042
1.03294434
1.01187648
0.93318187
0.93813901
0.9932872
1.03542291
1.09552825
1.03046268 714.227271 -234.227271 49%
0.96663292 476.186695 -40.1866947 9%
1.01249776 474.429208 7.5707924 2%
0.96230208 476.840211 -28.8402107 6%
0.98770651 472.509515 -14.5095154 3%
1.03294479 489.002631 -0.00263076 0%
1.01188504 489.0805 8.91949999 2%
0.9331769 470.637618 -40.6376178 9%
0.93813937 434.580406 9.41959357 2%
0.9932985 475.040503 20.9594973 4%
1.03542194 527.425571 -40.4255711 8%
1.09553152 516.723063 8.27693686 2%
1.03047193 497.202945 77.7970549 14%
0.96663754 559.473897 -32.4738972 6%
1.01249848 565.499245 -25.4992454 5%
0.96229875 520.729762 -18.7297624 4%
0.9877004 518.779382 -10.7793817 2%
1.03295297 532.612658 40.3873424 7%
1.01187399 571.918614 -63.918614 13%
0.93317768 464.990075 33.0099246 7%
0.9381345 504.940579 -19.9405792 4%
0.99329788 513.457948 12.5420524 2%
1.03542261 551.473592 0.5264079 0%
1.09553326 587.774471 -0.77447077 0%
1.03046654 555.716952 52.2830478 9%
0.96663977 585.13291 11.8670902 2%
1.01249726 643.897848 -31.897848 5%
0.96230321 592.594468 10.4055317 2%
0.98770724 632.812829 -4.81282874 1%
1.03294628 670.389478 -65.3894784 11%
1.01187685 591.570268 35.4297316 6%
0.93318027 584.925573 -6.92557281 1%
0.93813811 586.416659 -1.41665935 0%
0.99329122 624.943596 -43.9435964 8%
1.03542302 601.176902 30.8230978 5%
1.09553023 671.680132 -15.6801324 2%
656
617
579
606
576
591
618
606
558
561
594
620
PROMEDIOS NORMALIZA
1.03046576 1.03046576
0.96664257 0.96664257
1.01249613 1.01249613
0.96230507 0.96230507
0.98771042 0.98771042
1.03294434 1.03294434
1.01187648 1.01187648
0.93318187 0.93318187
0.93813901 0.93813901
0.9932872 0.9932872
1.03542291 1.03542291
1.09552825 1.09552825

12
resumen
RLINEAL FE WINTERS
1 480 480 480
2 436 436 436
3 482 482 482
4 448 448 448
5 458 458 458
6 489 489 489
7 498 498 498
8 430 430 430
9 444 444 444
10 496 496 496
11 487 487 487
12 525 525 525
13 575 575 575
14 527 527 527
15 540 540 540
16 502 502 502
17 508 508 508
18 573 573 573
19 508 508 508
20 498 498 498
21 485 485 485
22 526 526 526
23 552 552 552
24 587 587 587
25 608 608 608
26 597 597 597
27 612 612 612
28 603 603 603
29 628 628 628
30 605 605 605
31 627 627 627
32 578 578 578
33 585 585 585
34 581 581 581
35 632 632 632
36 656 656 656
446 692 656
451 647 617
457 680 579 800
462 644 606 700
467 661 576
600
472 694 591
500
400
300
200
800
700
600
500
478 679 618
483 625 606 400

488 629 558 300


493 669 561 200
499 694 594 100
504 736 620
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2

Column B
Chart Title
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48

Column B Column C Column D

También podría gustarte