EJERCICIO 1

X
10 Columna1
50
19 Media 21.32142857
54 Error típico 2.526082759
15 Mediana 17
5 Moda 15
17 Desviación estándar 13.36677354
7 Varianza de la muestra 178.6706349
20 Curtosis 0.281389755
9 Coeficiente de asimetría 1.096454917
28 Rango 49
8 Mínimo 5
25 Máximo 54
12 Suma 597
29 Cuenta 28
16 Nivel de confianza(95.0%) 5.183093692
15 CV 62.69%
14
11
13
17
35
11
37
41
18
43
18

a. media
b. desvest
c.-

d.-

e.-
PREGUNTA 2

DESTINO 1
PASAJEROS 250 350 400 500
PROBABILIDAD 35% 15% 30% 20% ESPERADO

DESTINO 2
PASAJEROS 150 180 220 300
PROBABILIDAD 25% 20% 45% 10% ESPERADO

DESTINO 3
PASAJEROS 300 400 500 600
PROBABILIDAD 15% 35% 20% 30% ESPERADO

DE SUS TRES DESTINOS

 360

202.5

465
PREGUNTA 3

PREGUNTA 3
X variable normal

Media = 7

desvesta= 2

500 huéspedes para el próximo mes

a.-
P ( X<=5)

b.- P( X>15)

c.- P( 6<X<12)
PREGUNTA 4

MEDIA = 8.1

DESVESTA = 5.7

n= 49

CONFIANZA = 95%

Z 95% =
PREGUNTA 5

Media = 700

n= 50

media muest 715

s= 50

alfa= 0.05
PREGUNTA 6

Autobús Costo de Edad

mantenimi
ento
( $) ( años)
1 859 8
2 682 5
3 471 3
4 708 9
5 1094 11
6 224 2
7 320 1
8 651 8
9 1049 12

Entre las dos variables existe una correlación positiva imperfecta

y x xy x2 y2
1 859 8 6872 64 737881
2 682 5 3410 25 465124
3 471 3 1413 9 221841
4 708 9 6372 81 501264
5 1094 11 12034 121 1196836
6 224 2 448 4 50176
7 320 1 320 1 102400
8 651 8 5208 64 423801
9 1049 12 12588 144 1100401
suma 6058 59 48665 513 4799724

numerador 80563 r= 0.93767326

denom1 33.7045991
denom 2 2549.14731
PREGUNTA 7

Semana Número de Espacio en

libros Repisas ( en
vendidos pies)
Y X
1 275 6.8
2 142 3.3
3 168 4.1
4 197 4.2
5 215 4.8
6 188 3.9
7 241 4.9
8 295 7.7
9 125 3.1
10 266 5.9
11 200 5

Semana Número de Espacio en

libros Repisas ( en
vendidos pies)
Y X xy x2 y2
1 275 6.8 1870 46.24 75625
2 142 3.3 468.6 10.89 20164
3 168 4.1 688.8 16.81 28224
4 197 4.2 827.4 17.64 38809
5 215 4.8 1032 23.04 46225
6 188 3.9 733.2 15.21 35344
7 241 4.9 1180.9 24.01 58081
8 295 7.7 2271.5 59.29 87025
9 125 3.1 387.5 9.61 15625
10 266 5.9 1569.4 34.81 70756
11 200 5 1000 25 40000
suma 2312 53.7 12029.3 282.55 515878

numerador 8167.9
denom 1 14.97865147468 r = 0.95023845
denom 2 573.858867667
Día Número De Día Número De
Reparacion Reparacion
es es
1 58 11 54
2 54 12 58
3 60 13 57
4 55 14 63
5 62 15 64
6 62 16 68
7 65 17 70
8 63 18 68
9 70 19 58
10 68 20 60

r1
t Yt Yt-1 Yt-Ypro Yt-1-Yprom (Yt-Yprom)2
1 58 -3.85 14.8225
2 54 58 -7.85 -3.85 61.6225
3 60 54 -1.85 -7.85 3.4225
4 55 60 -6.85 -1.85 46.9225
5 62 55 0.15 -6.85 0.0225
6 62 62 0.15 0.15 0.0225
7 65 62 3.15 0.15 9.9225
8 63 65 1.15 3.15 1.3225
9 70 63 8.15 1.15 66.4225
10 68 70 6.15 8.15 37.8225
11 54 68 -7.85 6.15 61.6225
12 58 54 -3.85 -7.85 14.8225
13 57 58 -4.85 -3.85 23.5225
14 63 57 1.15 -4.85 1.3225
15 64 63 2.15 1.15 4.6225
16 68 64 6.15 2.15 37.8225
17 70 68 8.15 6.15 66.4225
18 68 70 6.15 8.15 37.8225
19 58 68 -3.85 6.15 14.8225
20 60 58 -1.85 -3.85 3.4225
Yprom 61.85 508.55

r1= 0.42164487

r1
t Yt Yt-1 Yt-Ypro Yt-1-Yprom (Yt-Yprom)2
1 58 -3.85 14.8225
2 54 -7.85 61.6225
3 60 58 -1.85 -3.85 3.4225
4 55 54 -6.85 -7.85 46.9225
5 62 60 0.15 -1.85 0.0225
6 62 55 0.15 -6.85 0.0225
7 65 62 3.15 0.15 9.9225
 8 63 62 1.15 0.15 1.3225
9 70 65 8.15 3.15 66.4225
10 68 63 6.15 1.15 37.8225
11 54 70 -7.85 8.15 61.6225
12 58 68 -3.85 6.15 14.8225
13 57 54 -4.85 -7.85 23.5225
14 63 58 1.15 -3.85 1.3225
15 64 57 2.15 -4.85 4.6225
16 68 63 6.15 1.15 37.8225
17 70 64 8.15 2.15 66.4225
18 68 68 6.15 6.15 37.8225
19 58 70 -3.85 8.15 14.8225
20 60 68 -1.85 6.15 3.4225
Yprom 61.85 508.55

r2= 0.09478911

r1
t Yt Yt-1 Yt-Ypro Yt-1-Yprom (Yt-Yprom)2
1 58 -3.85 14.8225
2 54 -7.85 61.6225
3 60 -1.85 3.4225
4 55 58 -6.85 -3.85 46.9225
5 62 54 0.15 -7.85 0.0225
6 62 60 0.15 -1.85 0.0225
7 65 55 3.15 -6.85 9.9225
8 63 62 1.15 0.15 1.3225
9 70 62 8.15 0.15 66.4225
10 68 65 6.15 3.15 37.8225
11 54 63 -7.85 1.15 61.6225
12 58 70 -3.85 8.15 14.8225
13 57 68 -4.85 6.15 23.5225
14 63 54 1.15 -7.85 1.3225
15 64 58 2.15 -3.85 4.6225
16 68 57 6.15 -4.85 37.8225
17 70 63 8.15 1.15 66.4225
18 68 64 6.15 2.15 37.8225
19 58 68 -3.85 6.15 14.8225
20 60 70 -1.85 8.15 3.4225
Yprom 61.85 508.55

r3= -0.2152
(Yt-Ypro)*(Yt-1-Yprom)

30.2225
14.5225
12.6725
-1.02749999999999
0.0224999999999996
0.472499999999995
3.62249999999999
9.37249999999999
50.1225
-48.2775
30.2225
18.6725
-5.57749999999999
2.4725
13.2225
50.1225
50.1225
-23.6775
7.12250000000001
214.4275

(Yt-Ypro)*(Yt-1-Yprom)

0
7.12250000000001
53.7725
-0.277499999999998
-1.02749999999999
0.472499999999995
 0.172499999999998
25.6725
7.07249999999999
-63.9775
-23.6775
38.0725
-4.4275
-10.4275
7.07249999999999
17.5225
37.8225
-31.3775
-11.3775
48.205

(Yt-Ypro)*(Yt-1-Yprom)

0
0
26.3725
-1.17749999999999
-0.277499999999998
-21.5775
0.172499999999998
1.22249999999999
19.3725
-9.02749999999999
-31.3775
-29.8275
-9.02749999999999
-8.2775
-29.8275
9.37249999999999
13.2225
-23.6775
-15.0775
-109.4175
Mes Ventas A B
1 250 Mes Ventas Yt-1 Yt-Yprom Yt-1-Yprom
2 200 1 250 -100
3 250 2 200 250 -150 -100
4 350 3 250 200 -100 -150
5 300 4 350 250 0 -100
6 250 5 300 350 -50 0
7 370 6 250 300 -100 -50
8 400 7 370 250 20 -100
9 330 8 400 370 50 20
10 450 9 330 400 -20 50
11 600 10 450 330 100 -20
12 450 11 600 450 250 100
13 230 12 450 600 100 250
14 250 13 230 450 -120 100
15 220 14 250 230 -100 -120
16 250 15 220 250 -130 -100
17 320 16 250 220 -100 -130
18 330 17 320 250 -30 -100
19 380 18 330 320 -20 -30
20 340 19 380 330 30 -20
21 380 20 340 380 -10 30
22 550 21 380 340 30 -10
23 500 22 550 380 200 30
24 450 23 500 550 150 200
24 450 500 100 150
Ypromedio 350

r1= 0.59895444

A B
Mes Ventas Yt-1 Yt-Yprom Yt-1-Yprom
1 250 -100
2 200 -150
3 250 250 -100 -100
4 350 200 0 -150
5 300 250 -50 -100
6 250 350 -100 0
7 370 300 20 -50
8 400 250 50 -100
9 330 370 -20 20
10 450 400 100 50
11 600 330 250 -20
12 450 450 100 100
13 230 600 -120 250
14 250 450 -100 100
15 220 230 -130 -120
16 250 250 -100 -100
 17 320 220 -30 -130
18 330 250 -20 -100
19 380 320 30 -30
20 340 330 -10 -20
21 380 380 30 30
22 550 340 200 -10
23 500 380 150 30
24 450 550 100 200
Ypromedio 350

r2= 0.12247946

A B
Mes Ventas Yt-1 Yt-Yprom Yt-1-Yprom
1 250 -100
2 200 -150
3 250 -100
4 350 250 0 -100
5 300 200 -50 -150
6 250 250 -100 -100
7 370 350 20 0
8 400 300 50 -50
9 330 250 -20 -100
10 450 370 100 20
11 600 400 250 50
12 450 330 100 -20
13 230 450 -120 100
14 250 600 -100 250
15 220 450 -130 100
16 250 230 -100 -120
17 320 250 -30 -100
18 330 220 -20 -130
19 380 250 30 -100
20 340 320 -10 -30
21 380 330 30 -20
22 550 380 200 30
23 500 340 150 -10
24 450 380 100 30
Ypromedio 350

r3= 0.00485437

A B
Mes Ventas Yt-1 Yt-Yprom Yt-1-Yprom
1 250 -100
2 200 -150
3 250 -100
4 350 0
 5 300 250 -50 -100
6 250 200 -100 -150
7 370 250 20 -100
8 400 350 50 0
9 330 300 -20 -50
10 450 250 100 -100
11 600 370 250 20
12 450 400 100 50
13 230 330 -120 -20
14 250 450 -100 100
15 220 600 -130 250
16 250 450 -100 100
17 320 230 -30 -120
18 330 250 -20 -100
19 380 220 30 -130
20 340 250 -10 -100
21 380 320 30 -30
22 550 330 200 -20
23 500 380 150 30
24 450 340 100 -10
Ypromedio 350

r3= -0.1113
(Yt-Yprom)2 A*B
10000
22500 15000
10000 15000
0 0
2500 0
10000 5000
400 -2000
2500 1000
400 -1000
10000 -2000
62500 25000
10000 25000
14400 -12000
10000 12000
16900 13000
10000 13000
900 3000
400 600
900 -600
100 -300
900 -300
40000 6000
22500 30000
10000 15000
267800 160400

(Yt-Yprom)2 A*B
10000
22500 0
10000 10000
0 0
2500 5000
10000 0
400 -1000
2500 -5000
400 -400
10000 5000
62500 -5000
10000 10000
14400 -30000
10000 -10000
16900 15600
10000 10000
 900 3900
400 2000
900 -900
100 200
900 900
40000 -2000
22500 4500
10000 20000
267800 32800

(Yt-Yprom)2 A*B
10000
22500 0
10000 0
0 0
2500 7500
10000 10000
400 0
2500 -2500
400 2000
10000 2000
62500 12500
10000 -2000
14400 -12000
10000 -25000
16900 -13000
10000 12000
900 3000
400 2600
900 -3000
100 300
900 -600
40000 6000
22500 -1500
10000 3000
267800 1300

(Yt-Yprom)2 A*B
10000
22500 0
10000 0
0 0
 2500 5000
10000 15000
400 -2000
2500 0
400 1000
10000 -10000
62500 5000
10000 5000
14400 2400
10000 -10000
16900 -32500
10000 -10000
900 3600
400 2000
900 -3900
100 1000
900 -900
40000 -4000
22500 4500
10000 -1000
267800 -29800
 Mes Real Pronóstico ERROR DAM EMC PEMA PME
Enero 505 445 60 60 3600 0.118812 0.11881188
Febrero 555 490 65 65 4225 0.117117 0.11711712
Marzo 408 550 -142 142 20164 0.348039 -0.34803922
Abril 510 600 -90 90 8100 0.176471 -0.17647059
Mayo 680 650 30 30 900 0.044118 0.04411765
Junio 610 700 -90 90 8100 0.147541 -0.14754098
Julio 750 750 0 0 0 0.000000 0
Agosto 823 800 23 23 529 0.027947 0.02794654
Septiembre 789 850 -61 61 3721 0.077313 -0.07731305
62.3333 5482.111 0.000000 -0.0490
 Periodo Servicios Predicción Predicción Predicción
reales 1 2 3
1 25 22 23 25
2 32 26 28 32
3 29 30 33 29
4 38 31 33 38
5 40 33 34 40

PREDICCIÓN 1

Mes Real Pronóstico ERROR DAM EMC PEMA PME

Enero 25 25 0 0 0 0 0
Febrero 32 32 0 0 0 0 0
Marzo 29 29 0 0 0 0 0
Abril 38 38 0 0 0 0 0
Mayo 40 40 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0

1 2 3
DAM = 4.8 DAM = 4.2 DAM = 0
EMC = 28.8 EMC = 19.4 EMC = 0
PEMA = 0.14023866 PEMA = 0.124902 PEMA = 0
PME = 0.12644555 PME = 0.06972958 PME = 0