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TUBAZO- GMVV ha construido más de 1.300.000 viviendas en el país, pag.

37

02 DE ENERO 2016, N° 1

CONTENIDO:

1. Conteo de taladros en EEUU se redijo en 2 para este mes 2


2. Secretario General de la OPEP confía en que la organización respetará las cuotas 4
3. Exxonmobil afirma disponer de nuevos descubrimientos de petróleo en Guyana 6
4. Compañía estadounidense utiliza fibra óptica para monitorear gasoductos 7
5. Que le pregunten a Tillerson sobre el manejo que Exxonmobil ha hecho en África 9
6. Proyectos de E&P (aguas arriba) se incrementarán el 2017 10
7. Reporte llama a buscar nueva fórmula para estimar lo social en la huella de carbono 12
8. Impacto del nuevo gobierno de Trump en los mercados de energía 14
9. Informe de la EPA indica que el fracking puede tener impactos en las aguas de California 16
10. Los mexicanos protestan en contra del gasolinazo 18
11. Nelson Martínez nombrado ministro de Petróleo en Venezuela 19
12. Precios de la gasolinas en EEUU en 2016 fueron los más bajos desde 2004 20
13. STATOIL incrementará perforaciones exploratorias en 2017 24
14. Actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones subió en 2016 con respeto al año 2015 26
15. FLUOR le fue otorgado proyecto de reacondicionamiento de la refinería Biobío en Chile 29
16. Irán se prepara para dejar entrar a 29 empresas petroleras extranjeras en su patio 30
17. ExxonMobil desarrolló eficiente tecnología para deshidratar gas natural 31
18. Como las corporaciones han conseguido amasar fortunas gracias al agua 33
19. Turkmenistán cerró exportaciones de gas natural hacia Irán 36
20. Gran Misión Vivienda Venezuela con más de 1.300.000 viviendas construidas 37
21. Ocho desarrollos tecnológicos que pueden cambiar el panorama energético 38
22.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


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BHI: US rig count posts first decline in 2
months
(BHI: Conteo de taladros en EEUU se redujo en 2 este mes)

HOUSTON, Jan. 13 /2017 -- By Matt Zborowski , OGJ Assistant Editor

The US drilling rig count dropped by 6 to 659 active units during the week ended
Jan. 13, marking its first decrease since Nov. 11, 2016, and largest since the
drilling rebound began at the beginning of June, according to Baker Hughes Inc.
data.

The tally remains 255 units above the nadir of the downturn on May 20-27,
reflecting increases in 28 of the past 33 weeks (OGJ Online, Jan. 6, 2017).

This week’s bump in the road aside, more rigs are expected to be deployed over
the next year as exploration and production firms lift their planned capital
expenditures. Among those to recently make announcements, Antero Resources
Corp. said it will lift its budget by 7% and add rigs to the Utica, while Hess Corp.
said it will boost its budget by 15% and increase its Bakken rig count to 6 from 2 by
yearend.

Barclays said this week that it expects North American E&P spending to increase
27% in 2017 following a decline of 38% in 2016 (OGJ Online, Jan. 9, 2017). As a
result, the banking and financial services firm believes the US rig count will
average 730 in 2017, ending the year at 850-875 rigs working.

However, an online survey showed 80% of North American E&P companies expect
oil-field service costs to increase, primarily in pressure pumping and land drilling
rigs.

In its own projections published last week, Raymond James & Associates Inc. said
it sees the tally reaching 800 during the year but remaining constrained at that level
because of an equipment bottleneck, mainly in pressure pumping.

US crude oil production, meanwhile, spiked 176,000 b/d during the week ended
Jan. 6 to 8.946 million b/d, down just 281,000 b/d year-over-year. The Lower 48
jumped 190,000 b/d while Alaska fell 14,000 b/d. EIA expects US output to
average 9 million b/d in 2017.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


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“The forecast increases in production largely reflect increases in federal offshore
Gulf of Mexico production,” the agency said in its Short-Term Energy Outlook for
January. “Rising tight oil production, which results from increases in drilling activity,
rig efficiency, and well-level productivity, also contributes to forecast US production
growth.”

Oil rigs down, Permian resilient

US oil-directed rigs weighed down the overall count with a 7-unit drop to 522, up
206 since May 27. It snapped a 10-week streak of increases. Gas-directed rigs
edged up a unit to 136, up 55 since Aug. 26. One rig considered unclassified
remains operational.

Land-based rigs fell 6 units to 634. However, horizontal rigs gained 3 units to 537,
up 223 since May 27; and directional rigs rose 2 units to 59.

Texas and Oklahoma each led the major oil- and gas-producing states in losses
with 2-unit declines to 325 and 84, respectively. Texas is still up 152 units since
May 27 and Oklahoma is up 30 units since June 24. The Haynesville, Granite
Wash, Barnett, and Mississippian each decreased a unit to 28, 9, 2, and 2,
respectively. The Permian, meanwhile, rose for the seventh straight week, edging
up a unit to 268, double its count on May 13.

North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Ohio each dropped a unit to 32, 32,
28, and 19, respectively. The DJ-Niobrara fell 2 units to 23. The Marcellus,
Williston, and Utica each declined a unit to respective tallies of 39, 32, and 20.

With a 1-unit offshore increase, Louisiana now totals 51 rigs working. Wyoming led
the states with a 2-unit rise to 19.

The overall US offshore tally is now 25. The country’s only rig drilling in inland
waters went offline.

In Canada, meanwhile, the rig count recorded its highest weekly increase in 2
years, skyrocketing 110 units to 315, up 279 since May 6. Oil-directed rigs leaped
89 units to 170 while gas-directed rigs rose 21 units to 144. One rig considered
unclassified remains working.

Thanks again to the US and Canada, the global rig count posted a noticeable
increase during December (OGJ Online, Jan. 9, 2017). The 94-unit rise to 1,772
included a 4-unit rise in the Asia-Pacific region and 3-unit rise in Latin America.
The Middle East dropped 4 units, including 2 in Saudi Arabia.

Referencia: " Oil & Gas Journal" <news@ogjo-media.com; http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/01/bhi-us-


rig-count-posts-first-decline-in-2-months.html?cmpid=enl_ogj_ogjdailyupdate_2017-01-
13&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1635502; 13/01/2017.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


3
OPEC chief 'confident' countries to meet oil
production cuts
(Secretario General de la OPEP confía que se respectarán
las cuotas de producción acordadas entre OPEP e
Independientes)
January 12, 2017 -- By Jon Gambrell, Associated Press

Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih, middle, next to Jon Meade Huntsman Jr., Chairman of Atlantic
Council, right, attend the opening ceremony of the Atlantic Council Global Energy Forum in Abu
Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, Thursday, Jan. 12, 2017. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Sanusi
Barkindo said at the forum Thursday that he remains "confident" that the cartel and outside
members will stick to an agreement to cut production to help boost oil prices. The comments by
Barkindo of Nigeria come as the cartel and nonmembers try to stick to the landmark deal after oil
prices collapsed last year. (AP Photo/Kamran Jebreili)

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The head of OPEC said on Thursday
that he remains "confident" that the cartel and outside members will stick to an
agreement to cut production to help boost oil prices.

The comments by OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo of


Nigeria come as the cartel and nonmembers try to stick to the landmark deal after
oil prices collapsed last year.

OPEC agreed in late November to cut its production by 1.2 million barrels a day,
the first reduction agreed to by the cartel since 2008. Nearly a dozen other
countries pledged in December to cut an additional 558,000 barrels a day.

"I remain very confident with what I have seen in the last several months,"
Barkindo said at the Atlantic Council's Global Energy Forum in Abu Dhabi. "The
level of commitment from both sides ... is unparalleled."
ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016
4
He added that there's been "a high level of compliance." However, how that
compliance will be verified has yet to be determined.

Kuwaiti Oil Minister Essam al-Marzouq, who leads a five-nation OPEC committee
monitoring compliance, said that should be judged on the average at the end of the
six-month cut.

Al-Marzouq declined to offer any other specifics ahead of a planned committee


meeting in Vienna beginning Jan. 21. However, Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar Ali al-Luaibi
pledged his country would meet its required cuts by the end of January.

Crude oil sold for over $100 a barrel in the summer of 2014, before bottoming out
below $30 a barrel in January 2016. Crude oil futures closed at $52.25 a barrel in
New York on Wednesday.

Producers acknowledged they hoped for higher prices, especially those in the
Persian Gulf, whose crude-based economies have been hurting. Also hurting are
the oil-dominated economies of Venezuela and Nigeria.

Emirati Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazroui said there is "a fair movement" toward
higher prices, though it isn't at a price his nation would like.

"The real correction will happen when we see the actions of all of those ...
concerned nations who came together to try to help the market," he said.

Saudi Oil Minister Khalid al-Falih echoed that viewpoint.

"We want moderation. We want to reduce volatility; we cannot eliminate it," al-Falih
said. "We also want prices that are supportive of continued production, as well as
equally important continued consumption."

However, Patrick Pouyanné, the CEO of French oil firm Total SA, offered a stark
warning, saying that there's a lot still unknown in the market — especially ahead of
the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump. Oil ministers, most notably al-
Falih, dodged answering questions about Trump's protectionist views could mean
for international markets.

"I'm not sure we fully understand what would be Mr. Trump's policies, but I'm sure
it will be America first," Pouyanné said.

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/oil-and-gas-opec-chief-confident-countries-
to-meet-oil-production-cuts.html?cmpid=enl_pennenergy_pennenergyweeklypetroleumupdates_2017-
01-13&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1634741; 13/01/2017.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


5
ExxonMobil announces new oil discoveries
offshore Guyana
(Exxonmobil anuncia nuevo descubrimiento de petróleo
en costas de Guyana, que pertenece a Venezuela)
January 12, 2017 -- By PennEnergy Editorial Staff -- Source: ExxonMobil

ExxonMobil announced positive results from its Payara-1 well offshore Guyana.
Payara is ExxonMobil’s second oil discovery on the Stabroek Block and was drilled
in a new reservoir. The Payara-1 well targeted similar aged reservoirs that were
proven successful at the company’s Liza discovery.

“This important discovery further establishes the area as a significant exploration


province,” said Steve Greenlee, president of ExxonMobil Exploration Company.
“We look forward to working with the government and our co-venturers to continue
evaluating broader exploration potential on the block and the greater Liza area.”

The well was drilled by ExxonMobil affiliate Esso Exploration and Production
Guyana Limited, and encountered more than 95 feet (29 meters) of high-quality,
oil-bearing sandstone reservoirs. It was safely drilled to 18,080 feet (5,512 meters)
in 6,660 feet (2,030 meters) of water. The Payara field discovery is about 10 miles
(16 km) northwest of the 2015 Liza discovery.

In addition to the Payara discovery, appraisal drilling at Liza-3 has identified an


additional high quality, deeper reservoir directly below the Liza field, which is
estimated to contain between 100-150 million oil equivalent barrels. This additional

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


6
resource is currently being evaluated for development in conjunction with the
world-class Liza discovery.

“These latest exploration successes are examples of ExxonMobil’s technological


capabilities in ultra-deepwater environments, which will enable effective
development of the resource for the benefit of the people of Guyana and our
shareholders,” Greenlee said.

Drilling on Payara began on Nov. 12 with initial total depth reached on Dec. 2. Two
sidetracks have been drilled to rapidly evaluate the discovery, and a well test is
underway to further evaluate the successful well results. The well data will be
analyzed in the coming months to better determine the full resource potential.

The Stabroek Block is 6.6 million acres (26,800 square kilometers). Esso
Exploration and Production Guyana Limited is operator and holds 45 percent
interest in the Stabroek Block. Hess Guyana Exploration Ltd. holds 30 percent
interest and CNOOC Nexen Petroleum Guyana Limited holds 25 percent interest.

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/exxonmobil-announces-new-oil-discoveries-
offshore-guyana.html?cmpid=enl_pennenergy_pennenergyweeklypetroleumupdates_2017-01-
13&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1634741; 13/01/2017.

SoCalGas to use fiber optic technology to


monitor gas pipelines in real time
(SoCalGas utilizará tecnología de fibra óptica para
monitorear gasoductos en tiempo real)
January 11, 2017 -- By PennEnergy Editorial Staff -- Source: Southern California Gas Company

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


7
Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) will be one of the first natural gas
utilities in the United States to incorporate innovative fiber optic cable technology to
detect impacts and leaks along its transmission and high-pressure gas pipeline
system.

The technology uses fiber optic strands to transmit data across long distances, and
can send early warning of pressure changes or vibrations that could indicate a leak
or an impact to the gas line. The technology quickly detects when abnormal stress,
movement or temperature conditions are present. Continuous monitoring and
measurement will help the company quickly identify threats to a pipeline from
heavy equipment operation, unexpected earth movement, or physical impact.
When a threat is identified, information will be sent within seconds along the fiber
cable to a remote monitoring station. The system can pinpoint where a potential
problem may be developing within 20 feet.

The system can prevent pipeline damage from unauthorized construction work,
geologic conditions or other physical changes like structural stress from broken
water mains. It can also detect pipeline leaks through both sound and temperature
signal analysis. Access to immediate and area-specific data will give SoCalGas
crews and first responders more time to plan, allocate resources, and take effective
actions to mitigate leaks or potential leaks.

The system works on the principle that light signals vary when a fiber optic cable is
exposed to vibration, stress or an abnormal change in temperature. The advanced
technology helps operators interpret these signal changes and determine the type
of threat posed and the precise location along the continuous length of cable. In
some cases, operators will be able to distinguish hand digging and routine traffic
from heavy equipment use near the pipeline.

"This is game-changing technology," said Jimmie Cho, senior vice president of gas
operations & system integrity, SoCalGas. "It will help keep our communities safe

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


8
and allow us to more quickly address accidental dig-ins by third-party contractors
and service outages that happen every year."

To test and gain a better understanding of how the new system performs,
engineers at the company's Pico Rivera test facility created a working scaled-down
pipeline section and installed fiber optic cabling in a pipeline trench.

Personnel pounded and dug into soil, pavement and other surfaces, drove heavy
equipment over and around the test area, and simulated gas leaks of various
magnitudes. From a remote location, special monitoring equipment successfully
identified each of those activities by its unique data signature.

SoCalGas plans to install fiber optic cable along all new and replacement pipeline
segments 12 inches and greater in diameter and one-mile long. The fiber optic
cables will be installed approximately 36 inches below the ground surface and 12
inches above the pipelines. SoCalGas plans to install its first fiber optic cables on
a 7-mile stretch of pipeline in Bakersfield this year.

Incorporating fiber optics into its operations is part of SoCalGas' long-standing


commitment to enhancing the safety and reliability of its more than 101,000 miles
of natural gas pipelines

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/socalgas-to-use-fiber-optic-technology-to-
monitor-gas-pipelines-in-real-time.html?cmpid=enl_pennenergy_pennenergydailypetroleum_2017-01-
12&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1633188; 12/01/2017.

Ask Tillerson about ExxonMobil's Africa


deals, watchdog says
(Que le pregunten a Tillerson sobre los manejos en África
que ha realizado Exxonmobil – lo dice una ONG)
January 11, 2017 -- By The Associated Press

LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — An anti-corruption watchdog says the U.S. Senate should
ask ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson about oil deals in Nigeria and other African
countries that allegedly undermine anti-corruption policies.

Global Witness issued the statement Wednesday, when Tillerson was expected to
face pointed questions at a Senate confirmation hearing as President-elect Donald
Trump's choice for secretary of state.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


9
Global Witness alleges that "questionable deals" between ExxonMobil and
autocratic, oil-rich regimes have fueled instability and entrenched poverty. It says
ExxonMobil has engaged in questionable transactions in Nigeria, Angola,
Equatorial Guinea and Chad.

The group also charges that ExxonMobil has led efforts to gut policies to reduce
corruption and undermines the U.S. commitment to more transparency by refusing
to disclose payments under the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative.

ExxonMobil denies any wrongdoing

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/oil-and-gas-ask-tillerson-about-exxonmobil-
s-africa-deals-watchdog-says.html?cmpid=enl_pennenergy_pennenergydailypetroleum_2017-01-
12&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1633188; 12/01/2017.

WoodMac: New upstream projects to double


globally in 2017
(WoodMac: Proyectos aguas arriba se incrementarán, al
igual que las inversiones en 2017)
HOUSTON, Jan. 11 /2017 --- By OGJ editors

Final investment decisions (FID) are expected to double globally in 2017 while
exploration and production spending will increase for the first time since 2014,
according to Wood Mackenzie Ltd.’s global upstream outlook.

The research and consulting firm sees confidence beginning to return to the
industry, with E&P spending up 3% to $450 billion—though still 40% below the
2014 level—and costs are expected to decline marginally.

WoodMac notes that capital expenditure deflation has averaged 20% over the past
2 years. With service sector margins thin, the firm believes there’s now only room
for small reductions and capital costs are expected to fall by an average of 3-7%.

US Lower 48 spending is set to rise 23% to $61 billion, with upside if oil prices rise
markedly and US independents are emboldened by a Trump presidency. Tight oil
and the Permian basin in particular is expected to lead the way, distinguished by
low breakevens, scale, and flexibility.

WoodMac predicts the number of global FIDs will rise to more than 20 in 2017,
compared with just nine in 2016. While it’s still short of the 2010-14 average of
ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016
10
40/year, the new projects are generally smaller and more efficient, with capex per
barrel of oil equivalent averaging just $7/bbl, down from $17/bbl for the 2014
projects.

“Companies will get more bang for their buck as development incremental internal
rates of return (IRR) will jump from 9% to 16%, comparing 2014 to 2017,” said
Malcolm Dickson, a principal analyst for upstream oil and gas for WoodMac. “This
is in part a result of a shift in capital allocation away from complex megaprojects
towards smaller, incremental projects in the Canadian oil sands and deep water.

“Nowhere is the mantra ‘doing more with less’ more evident than onshore US,”
Dickson added. “There has been a dramatic increase in efficiency in the sector,
exemplified by the drillers, who are managing to complete wells up to 30%
quicker.”

As the tight-oil sector heats up further, the specter of cost inflation looms in 2017,
WoodMac says. But any increase in costs may be offset by further efficiency gains
in earlier-life plays. For example, there’s still potential for a further improvement in
drilling speed of 20-30% in some early-life tight oil plays.

Deepwater FIDs are expected to be a leading indicator the tide is turning, with the
best development assets holding their own against tight oil, especially as more
risk-averse tight oil operators start to screen opportunities under higher discount
rates.

WoodMac notes that while projects slated for FID in 2017 are largely looking good,
the longer-term deepwater pipeline is more challenged. Of the 40 larger pre-FID
deepwater projects, around half fail to hit 15% IRR at $60/bbl.

“The industry has selected the best projects to optimize and take forward,” said
Dickson. “In 2017 it will have to turn its attention towards optimizing the next wave
of developments to get them sanction-ready.”

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


11
Referencia: " Oil & Gas Journal" <news@ogjo-media.com;
http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/01/woodmac-new-upstream-projects-to-double-globally-in-
2017.html?cmpid=enl_ogj_ogjdailyupdate_2017-01-
11&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1632856; 11/01/2017.

Report calls for new framework to estimate


social costs of carbon
(Un Reporte llama a establecer una Nuevo marco para
estimar el costo social de la huella de carbono)
WASHINGTON, DC, Jan. 11/2017 --- By Nick Snow , OGJ Washington Editor

The federal government should use a new framework to estimate carbon dioxide’s
social cost for regulatory impact analysis that would strengthen the scientific basis,
provide greater transparency, and improve characterization of the estimates’
uncertainties, a recent report from the National Academies of Sciences,
Engineering & Medicine said.

The Jan. 11 report, “Valuing Climate Damages: Updating Estimation of the Social
Cost of Carbon Dioxide,” also identifies near and longer-term improvements that
should be adopted for calculating the social cost of carbon (SC-CO2). This is an
estimate, in dollars, of net damages society incurs from a 1 metric ton/year
increase in CO2 emissions, it said.

The SC-CO2 is intended to be a comprehensive estimate of the net costs and


benefits associated with climate change impacts such as changes in net
agricultural productivity, risks to human health, and damage from floods and similar
events as floods, the report explained.

As required by executive orders and a court ruling, government agencies use the
SC-CO2 when analyzing impacts of various regulations, including standards for
vehicle emissions and fuel economy, regulation of emissions from power plants,
and energy efficiency standards for appliances, it noted.

The federal Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases
(IWG) developed a methodology in 2010 to estimate the SC-CO2. The National
Academies committee that produced the report was charged with examining
potential approaches for a comprehensive update to this methodology to ensure
that SC-CO2 estimates reflect the best available science. The committee was not
asked to estimate a value for the social cost of carbon.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


12
The report said the IWG’s methodology uses three distinct models to estimate the
economic consequences of CO2 emissions:

First, a baseline of CO2 emissions is defined along with projections of underlying


socioeconomic factors—global economic growth and population—decades into the
future.

Next, a small increase in CO2 emissions is added to the baseline for each of the
three models, which is translated into an increase in atmospheric CO 2 and a
resulting increase in global mean temperature.

These results then are used to estimate potential net damages in dollars, using
discounting to convert future damages into present dollar terms. The final IWG
analysis averages the results from the three models.

The report recommends that the IWG “unbundle” this process and instead use a
framework in which each step of the SC-CO2 calculation is developed as one of
four separate but integrated “modules”: the socioeconomic module, which
generates projections of greenhouse gas emissions based on its estimates of
population and world economic output; the climate module, which translates
changes in emissions into changes in temperature; the damages module, which
estimates the net impact of temperature changes in dollar terms; and the
discounting module.

It said data the socioeconomic module generates would feed into each of the other
three modules, and the temperature changes generated by the climate module
would inform the damages module. Each module would be developed based on
expertise in the relevant scientific disciplines to reflect the most up-to-date
research.

The report offers detailed recommendations about how the IWG should develop
each of the modules and how the proposed framework could include feedbacks
between and interactions within the modules.

The committee outlined several other recommendations that would be feasible to


implement in the next 2-3 years and would improve the analysis:

The socioeconomics module should use statistical methods and expert input for
projecting distributions of economic activity, population growth, and emissions into
the future.

The climate module should employ a simple Earth system model that satisfies well-
defined diagnostic tests to confirm that it properly captures the relationships over
time between CO2 emissions, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and global mean
surface temperature change and sea-level rise.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


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The damages module should improve and update existing formulations of climate
change damages. This update should draw on recent scientific literature related to
both empirical estimation and process-based modeling of damages.

The committee also recommended that the IWG update update the SC-CO2
roughly every 5 years following a regular, three-step process. This process will
ensure that for each update, the components of each module, module feedbacks
and interactions, and the SC-CO2 framework itself are consistent with the current
state of scientific knowledge as reflected in peer-reviewed literature, the report
said.

Key uncertainties and sensitivities should be adequately identified and represented


in technical support documentation, and uncertainties that cannot be or have not
been quantified should also be identified, it suggested. In addition, documentation
should explain and justify choices, and the presentation of results should be
transparent, the report said.

Referencia: " Oil & Gas Journal" <news@ogjo-media.com; http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/01/report-


calls-for-new-framework-to-estimate-social-costs-of-
carbon.html?cmpid=enl_ogj_ogjdailyupdate_2017-01-
11&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1632856; 11/01/2017.

Impact Of The Trump Administration On The


U.S. Pump Markets
(Impacto del nuevo Gobierno de Trump en los mercados de
energía)

The market for industrial pumps in the U.S. is likely to be greater over the next few
years with Trump as president than it would have been had Clinton been elected.
In the weeks since the election, the stock markets are up and corporations are
ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016
14
more optimistic about the near-term business outlook. The longer-term outlook is
less certain as is the impact on world markets.

The impact on the U.S. power industry will be positive with pump sales in 2018
rising as much as 8 percent due to Trump policies. Oil and gas will also be
positively affected. The Keystone pipeline project will very likely now be built and
other gas and oil projects will move through the regulatory maze more easily. The
promised infrastructure program could boost pump sales to municipal water and
wastewater plants.

U.S. Pump Revenues ($ Millions)


Industry 2018 Trump Impact %
Total 11,618 -1 to +3
Oil & Gas 4,834 0 to +2
Power 367 +1 to +8
Refining 475 0 to +1
Wastewater 1,978 0 to + 1
Water 889 0 to + 1

Trump has vowed to bring back the coal industry, allow oil and gas development
on federal lands, “cancel” the international Paris climate accord, scrap Obama’s
Clean Power Plan and eliminate tax incentives for wind and solar power
generation. He plans to slash the budget for the Environmental Protection Agency
and a new Supreme Court justice is likely to favor limits on EPA’s authority. The
Department of Energy’s budget is also expected to be cut, along with a
corresponding decline in funding for clean energy research and development.

The impact on the power market will be favorable for two reasons:

 More gas turbine plants will be built and fewer solar and wind generators
 No new coal-fired power plants will be built but life extension programs will
require significant numbers of valves

One trillion dollars would be allocated to an infrastructure program which would


triple funding for state revolving loan fund programs to help states and local
governments upgrade municipal water and wastewater plants. These plants have
already allocated $75B/yr. over the next eight years for capital improvements.
Federal funding for water utilities has fallen to $4.3B in 2014 from $16B in 1976.
This has passed the burden onto states, municipalities and ultimately ratepayers.
The new source of federal funding will result in larger capital expenditures of as
much as $10B/yr.

Referencia: " Oil and Gas Online Newsletter", <info@news.oilandgasonline.com>";


http://www.oilandgasonline.com/doc/impact-of-the-trump-administration-on-the-u-s-pump-markets-
0001?vm_tId=1974358&user=324D1111-4B97-4249-B8EB-

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


15
2D34E8472BD4&utm_source=et_6214169&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=OIL_01-11-
2017&utm_term=324D1111-4B97-4249-B8EB-
2D34E8472BD4&utm_content=Impact+Of+The+Trump+Administration+On+The+U.S.+Pump+Markets;
11/01/2017.

New EPA Report Highlights Fracking Pollution


Threat To California's Water
(Nuevo reporte de la EPA indica que el Fracking es una
amenaza para las aguas del estado de California)
Golden State Has All Six Factors That Increase Water-contamination Risk

A major new report released recently by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
highlights hydraulic fracturing’s threat to California's water supplies. All six factors
identified in the EPA report as increasing the risk of fracking-related water pollution
apply in California.

“This report shows that Californians are right to be deeply concerned about
fracking pollution’s threats to our water,” said Hollin Kretzmann of the Center for
Biological Diversity. “The EPA identified six risk factors that increase the risk of
water contamination, and every single one applies in our state. The best way to
protect our water from fracking chemicals is to ban this toxic technique.”

Oil companies in California frack at shallow depths, very close to groundwater.


They also employ fracking fluid with unusually high concentrations of chemicals.
The oil industry in the state has been allowed to dispose of vast quantities of oil
wastewater into unlined pits that threaten groundwater.

“Percolation pits, in particular, were commonly reported to have been used to


manage produced water from stimulated wells in Kern County, California, between
2011 and 2014,” the EPA report states. The document also highlights the risks of
spills of oil industry wastewater, noting that over a recent five-year period “18% of
the spills impacted waterways.”

The EPA found scientific evidence that hydraulic fracturing activities can impact
drinking water resources under some circumstances. The report identifies certain
conditions under which impacts from hydraulic fracturing activities can be more
frequent or severe.

EPA’s six identified factors for increased risk of water pollution, listed below, all
occur in California, making fracking in the state particularly dangerous:

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


16
 Risk factor 1: Water withdrawals for hydraulic fracturing in times or areas of
low water availability, particularly in areas with limited or declining
groundwater resources.
 California is experiencing a historic drought. A 2014 report by Ceres noted
that 98 percent of fracking occurs in areas of the state experiencing high or
extreme water stress.
 Risk factor 2: Spills during the handling of hydraulic fracturing fluids and
chemicals or produced water that result in large volumes or high
concentrations of chemicals reaching groundwater resources.
 Oil companies in California use well-stimulation fluid with a higher
concentration of chemicals, according to 2015 report from the California
Council on Science and Technology.
 Risk factor 3: Injection of hydraulic fracturing fluids into wells with
inadequate mechanical integrity, allowing gases or liquids to move to
groundwater resources.
 California’s long history of oil production makes it more prone to fluid
migration through older wells. The state also has many wells in close
proximity to one another (high density) and unmapped wells, which increase
this risk even further.
 Risk factor 4: Injection of hydraulic fracturing fluids directly into
groundwater resources.
 Groundwater tables and injection zones in California are close together,
according to the California Council on Science and Technology, increasing
the likelihood that fracking fluid may directly reach a source of groundwater.
 Risk factor 5: Discharge of inadequately treated hydraulic fracturing
wastewater to surface water.
 The Cawelo Water District in California's Kern County has been processing
water from oil fields in which fracking has occurred and using it for irrigation.
Records show that statewide, millions of gallons of wastewater are later
discharged to irrigation canals for agricultural use. Wastewater is also
sometimes discharged into surface water.
 Risk factor 6: Disposal or storage of hydraulic fracturing wastewater in
unlined pits resulting in contamination of groundwater resources.
 California continues to allow the oil industry to use unlined pits for oil
wastewater storage and disposal. A survey by the State Water Resources
Control Board and regional water boards found hundreds of active unlined
pits in the state. While oil officials recently implemented a regulation against
discharging flowback fluid from fracked wells into such pits, the state does a
poor job of tracking wastewater and existing pits likely have vast quantities
of fracking flowback fluid.

Referencia: " Oil and Gas Online Newsletter", <info@news.oilandgasonline.com>";


http://www.oilandgasonline.com/doc/new-epa-report-highlights-fracking-pollution-threat-to-california-
s-water-0001?vm_tId=1974362&user=324D1111-4B97-4249-B8EB-
2D34E8472BD4&utm_source=et_6214169&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=OIL_01-11-
2017&utm_term=324D1111-4B97-4249-B8EB-

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


17
2D34E8472BD4&utm_content=New+EPA+Report+Highlights+Fracking+Pollution+Threat+To+California
%27s+Water; 11/01/2017.

Mexicans march against gas price hike, little


looting
(Mexicanos marcharon contra el gasolinazo sin violencia,
ni saqueos)
January 9, 2017 -- By The Associated Press

MEXICO CITY (AP) — A protest against Mexico's 20-percent gasoline price hike
turned violent Saturday after a lone protester drove his truck into a line of police
guarding a fuel distribution terminal in Baja California.

Federal police said seven officers were injured in the incident in Rosarito, near the
border city of Tijuana.

Video showed the small pickup driving straight into the line of riot police, then
backing up and speeding off.

Largely peaceful protests against the fuel price increases continued elsewhere in
Mexico Saturday, and looting seen earlier in the week largely subsided. But
nervousness remained.

Officials in Veracruz, one of the states hardest-hit by the looting on Wednesday


and Thursday, said some neighborhood groups had begun to form patrols of
residents armed with staves or machetes to ward off looters.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


18
Veracruz Gov. Miguel Angel Yunes Linares said 532 people had been detained in
his state alone and that social rumors of further looting — apparently unfounded —
had caused "an artificial psychosis."

He said that in the northern part of the state, given this psychosis, "the neighbors
decided to arm themselves with staves, machetes, creating the impression that
there were armed groups of criminals."

Yunes Linares said the government was trying to convince residents to stop such
patrolling.

The Interior Department reported a total of more than 1,500 people have been
detained for looting or disturbances nationwide since protests began early in the
week.

It is unclear how many have been charged. Hundreds of stores were looted, mainly
on Wednesday and Thursday. Police protection of stores has been stepped up
since.

The federal police reported continued protests, and some highway blockages, on
Saturday.

Thousands of people marched down main avenues in the western city of


Guadalajara Saturday to protest the increases, which are part of a government
effort to deregulate fuel prices.

Despite persistent rumors that political interests might have egged on the looters to
smear the gas-hike protesters, Yunes Linares said there was "no evidence that
political parties were involved." He said authorities were investigating whether
criminal gangs had taken part.

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/oil-and-gas-mexicans-march-against-gas-
price-hike-little-looting.html?cmpid=enl_PennEnergy_PennEnergyDailyPetroleum_2017-01-
10&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1630584; 10/01/2017.

Martinez named as Venezuela’s minister of


petroleum
(Nelson Martínez nombrado Ministro de Petróleo)
HOUSTON, Jan. 10/2017 -- By OGJ editors

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


19
Nelson Martinez has been named Venezuela’s minister of petroleum, according to
Petroleos de Venezuela SA (PDVSA).

He succeeds Eulogio Del Pino, who was named petroleum minister in 2015 in
addition to serving as president of PDVSA (OGJ Online, Aug. 20, 2015). Del Pino
has been president since 2014 and retains that role.

Martinez had been president and chief executive officer of Citgo Petroleum Corp.,
Houston, since 2013 (OGJ Online, June 21, 2013). Earlier, he served as managing
director of refining at PDVSA Oriente, executive director of PDVSA America, and
general director of PDVSA Argentina.

Referencia: " Oil & Gas Journal" <news@ogjo-media.com;


http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/01/martinez-named-as-venezuela-s-minister-of-
petroleum.html?cmpid=enl_OGJ_OGJDailyUpdate_2017-01-
10&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1631553; 10/01/2017.

U.S. gasoline prices in 2016 were the lowest


since 2004
(En el 2016 los precios de las gasolinas vendidas en EEUU
fueron los más bajos desde 2004)
January 6, 2017 -- By PennEnergy Editorial Staff - Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

U.S. regular retail gasoline prices averaged $2.14 per gallon (gal) in 2016, 29
cents/gal (12%) less than in 2015 and the lowest annual average price since 2004.
Lower crude oil prices in 2015 were the main cause of lower gasoline prices. In 9
of the 10 cities for which EIA collects weekly retail price data, gasoline prices did
not exceed $3.00/gal.

Each Monday, EIA collects and publishes data on retail gasoline and diesel fuel
prices for multiple locations across the country. Retail gasoline prices are
published for 10 cities, 9 states, 5 regions, and the United States as a whole.
Gasoline prices across the country reflect differences in gasoline specifications,
taxes, and supply and demand balances in regional markets.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


20
East Coast (Boston, New York, and Miami). In Boston, New York, and Miami,
regular retail gasoline prices reached yearly highs during the summer driving
season in June and were lowest in February. In September and October,
disruptions to the Colonial Pipeline caused gasoline prices to increase
approximately five cents and two cents across the region, respectively. Weekly
reporting of Monday average prices for the entire East Coast region moved within a
range of $1.73/gal to $2.31/gal over the year.

Midwest (Chicago and Cleveland). Retail gasoline prices in Chicago peaked in


mid-June during the summer driving season. The Midwest covers a large
geographic area consisting of multiple semi-connected markets. Prices in Chicago
were slightly above prices in Cleveland and the Midwest regional average during
2016.

Gulf Coast (Houston). Gulf Coast retail gasoline prices tend to be the lowest in
the country. The region is home to half of U.S. refining capacity and produces
substantially more gasoline than it consumes. Additionally, gasoline taxes in the
region are among the lowest in the country. In 50 out of 52 weeks in 2016, retail
gasoline prices in Houston were the lowest of the 10 cities for which EIA collects
Monday price data each week. Houston prices ranged from a high of $2.10/gal in
mid-June to a low of $1.45/gal on February 22. After the summer driving season,
gasoline prices in Houston only rose above $2.00/gal once, for the week ending
October 24.

Rocky Mountains (Denver). Denver retail gasoline prices were the second lowest
of the 10 cities surveyed for 28 weeks of 2016. Limited planned refinery outages
this fall and gasoline inventories above the five-year average placed downward

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


21
pressure on prices. At $2.02/gal as of December 12, Denver gasoline prices were
significantly below their five-year average of $2.78/gal.

West Coast (Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Seattle). Gasoline prices on the
West Coast tend to be higher than in other parts of the country because of strict
fuel specifications in California, the region's relative isolation from other markets,
and higher state and local taxes. During 2016, retail prices in Los Angeles were the
highest of the 10 cities for which EIA collects Monday price data for 32 weeks of
the year. Los Angeles prices reached $3.11/gal, their highest point in 2016 in early
January following a series of refinery outages along the West Coast.

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/gas-prices-u-s-gasoline-prices-in-2016-were-
the-lowest-since-2004.html?cmpid=enl_PennEnergy_PennEnergyDailyPetroleum_2017-01-
09&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1629226; 09/01/2017.

BHI: US rig count begins 2017 with 7-unit


increase
(BHI: Taladros en EEUU se incrementaron en 7 al inicio del
2017)
HOUSTON, Jan. 06/2017 -- By Matt Zborowski , OGJ Assistant Editor

The US drilling rig count began the new year with its eighth consecutive weekly
rise and 28th increase of the past 32 weeks that comprise the recent drilling
rebound.

Baker Hughes Inc.’s tally rose 7 units to 665 during the week ended Jan. 6. The
count is up 261 units from a nadir of 404 touched during the weeks of May 20-27,
the low point of the recent drilling downturn and in BHI data that dates back
decades.

It entered 2016 at 664 rigs working and exited the year having almost fully
recovered to that total at 658 (OGJ Online, Dec. 30, 2016).

Raymond James & Associates Inc. said in a research note this week that it expects
the overall count to continue trending upward through 2017. However, the financial
services firm believes the tally will be constrained to around 800 during the year
before climbing to about 1,100 in 2018.

RJA continues to foresee an equipment bottleneck limiting rig deployment in the


near term as demand continues to rise. “Given the pain that has been felt in the
ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016
22
sector, the oil service industry may have difficulty keeping pace with [exploration
and production] development plans as the recovery cycle develops, particularly in
pressure pumping,” it said.

“The market could be wholly out of horsepower at 1,000 without a level of


newbuilds and refurbished equipment, which may take time to enter the market,”
RJA explained.

Oil rigs up in 10 straight weeks

US oil-directed rigs gained 4 units to 529, up 213 since May 27. That count has
risen in 10 straight weeks and only declined once in the past 28 weeks.

Gas-directed rigs rose 3 units to 136, up 52 since Aug. 26. One rig considered
unclassified remains active.

All but one of the 7 units to start work this week were land-based, bringing that total
to 640. Rigs engaged in horizontal drilling gained 2 units to 534, up 220 since May
27. Directional drilling rigs edged up a unit to 57.

One rig started work offshore Louisiana, lifting the overall US offshore count to 24.
One rig remains drilling in inland waters.

After ending 2016 with a 67-unit drop a week ago, Canada rebounding to begin
2017 with a 48-unit jump to 205, which is still 169 units higher than where the count
stood on May 6.

Oil-directed rigs in Canada reclaimed 29 units to total 81. Gas-directed rigs took
back 23 units to reach 123—their highest point since Mar. 13, 2015. Four rigs
considered unclassified went offline, bringing that tally to 1.

Texas-New Mexico rebound hub

Among the major oil- and gas-producing states, Texas and New Mexico, both
home to the Permian basin, led the way each with 3-unit increases to 327 and 37,
respectively. Louisiana was the only other state with a double-digit increase,
gaining 2 units to 50.

Texas’s count is up 153 units since May 27 while New Mexico’s count has risen 24
units since Mar. 13. The Permian also climbed 3 units and now totals 267, up 133
since May 13.

The Haynesville rose 2 units to 29, up 16 since Sept. 30. The Eagle Ford continued
its slow rise, edging up a unit to 47, up 18 since June 3. The Granite Wash,
meanwhile, dived 5 units to 10.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


23
Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Ohio each edged up 1 unit to respective totals of 33,
29, and 20. The Marcellus and Utica each gained 1 unit to 40 and 20, respectively.
The two shale gas regions’ counts have doubled during the rebound.

Major shale gas producer Antero Resources Corp. said this week that it plans to
operate 4 rigs in the Marcellus in West Virginia during 2017 and expects to
complete 135 wells with an average lateral length of 9,200 ft (OGJ Online, Jan. 6,
2017).

In the Ohio Utica, the firm plans to operate 3 rigs for the year and expects to
complete 35 wells with an average lateral length of 9,700 ft.

Alaska dropped 1 unit to 8 rigs. Wyoming decreased 2 units to 17.

Referencia: " Oil & Gas Journal" <news@ogjo-media.com; http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/01/bhi-us-


rig-count-begins-2017-with-7-unit-increase.html?cmpid=enl_OGJ_OGJDailyUpdate_2017-01-
06&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1629046; 06/01/2017.

Statoil to increase exploration drilling in


2017
(STATOIL incrementará perforaciones de exploratorias en
el 2017)
January 4, 2017 -- By PennEnergy Editorial Staff -- Source: Statoil

Statoil plans to drill around 30 exploration wells in 2017, an increase of around


30% compared to 2016. More than half of the wells will be drilled on the Norwegian
Continental Shelf (NCS).

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


24
“Taking advantage of our own improvements and changed market conditions, we
have been able to get more wells, more acreage and more seismic data for our
exploration investments in later years,” says Tim Dodson, Executive Vice President
for Exploration in Statoil.

“This allows us to firm up a strong drilling program for 2017, totalling around 30
exploration wells as operator and partner. The upcoming well program is balanced
between proven, well known basins and new frontier opportunities,” says Dodson,
underlining that the exploration drilling plans are dependent on permitting, rig
availability and partner approvals.

In 2016, Statoil completed a total of 23 exploration wells as operator and partner –


14 of them on the NCS. The total exploration activity, also including a.o. licensing,
access and seismic data acquisitions, was completed well below the original
forecast due to efficiency improvements and market effects.

In Norway, the 5-7 well exploration campaign in the Barents Sea is at the core of
the activity plan. In The Norwegian Sea and the North Sea, the ambition is to prove
near field volumes to prolong the productive lifetime of existing infrastructure and
determine the growth potential.

In total, Statoil expects 16-18 NCS exploration wells to be completed in 2017. New
discoveries are crucial to counteract decline on the NCS.

“The Barents Sea has yielded several of Norway’s most significant oil discoveries
in recent years. We are looking forward to test new targets, both in the relatively
well known geology around in the Johan Castberg and Hoop/Wisting area, as well
as some new frontier opportunities with greater geological uncertainty but also high
impact potential. This campaign can provide us with crucial information about the
long term future of the Norwegian shelf,” says Dodson.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


25
Internationally, Statoil’s 2017 exploration drilling activity will comprise growth
opportunities in basins where Statoil already is established with discoveries and
producing fields, as well as new frontier opportunities.

“Following our take-over as operator for the Carcara discovery last summer, Brazil
has become even more important in Statoil’s portfolio, not least on the exploration
front. We are stepping up exploration also in the UK, with plans for three Statoil
operated exploration wells in 2017,” says Dodson.

Elsewhere, partner operated wells are planned to be spudded in established


basins like the US Gulf of Mexico and in in new frontier areas like Indonesia and
Suriname. Statoil is also partnering in onshore exploration drilling planned in
Russia and Turkey.

“The 2017 exploration plans demonstrate our long term commitment to the NCS,
while we continue to position the company for global opportunities. If everything
goes to plan, we will this year have exploration drilling activity in 11 countries on
five continents,” says Dodson.

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/statoil-to-increase-exploration-drilling-in-
2017.html?cmpid=enl_PennEnergy_PennEnergyDailyPetroleum_2017-01-
05&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1627217; 05/01/2017.

2017 primed for growth after 117% surge in


2016 U.S. oil and gas M&A activity
(La actividad de fusiones y adquisiciones en la industria
de los hidrocarburos en EEUU subió un 117% en 2016 con
respecto al 2015 y se espera un nuevo incremento en
2017)
January 4, 2017 -- By PennEnergy Editorial Staff - -Source: PLS Inc.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


26
 2016 tally of $69 billion in 385 deals compares to $32 billion in 285 deals in 2015
and $85 billion in 437 deals in 2014.
 Texas' Permian region is most active with $27 billion, split $9 billion in traditional
Midland sub-basin and $18 billion in emerging Delaware sub-basin.
 Permian buyers snap up more than 18,500 net drilling locations with PLS allocated
value of $19.7 billion implying a low cost to secure roughly 10.3 billion net barrels in
future inventory at about $1.90 per barre.
 Range Resources' $4.4 billion corporate buy of Memorial Resource Development
in North Louisiana's Cotton Valley gas play is largest deal of the year.
 After a slow 2015, the Marcellus gas play recovered but remained a distant second
with $6.7 billion in deals.
 Though smaller in footprint than the Permian, Oklahoma's SCOOP/STACK play is
also rapidly growing and ranks third at $5.1 billion.
 Texas' Eagle Ford, Colorado's Niobrara and North Dakota's Bakken plays lag at
$2.9 billion, $1.9 billion and $2.1 billion, respectively, but are now recovering with
higher pricing ahead.
 Gulf of Mexico particularly hard hit with just $2.4 billion in deals, substantially all
attributed to Anadarko Petroleum's $2.0 billion buy of Freeport McMoRan's
deepwater portfolio.
 Looking ahead, assets for sale remain at a high level, and equity capital via the
public and private markets is readily available for strong buyers.
 PLS Inc. expects 2017 to be a strong year for continued M&A activity in the U.S.

PLS Inc. ("PLS"), a leading Houston-based oil and gas research firm, announces
that merger and acquisition activity for the upstream energy sector in the United
States more than doubled in 2016 to $69 billion in 385 deals as the industry quickly
adapted to securing Tier 1 drilling locations that are profitable in a $50 oil price
environment and buying existing production. The 2016 deal value compares to $32
billion in 285 deals in 2015 and $85 billion in 437 deals during the much higher-
priced 2014 environment. Oil price accounts for much of the deal market volatility
as it began descending from July 2014 highs of $100-plus and accelerated in
November 2014 when OPEC decided to open the taps to gain market share. This
resulted in prices plummeting to a low of $27 per barrel in February 2016. Two
years after OPEC's attack on oil prices began, both OPEC and non-OPEC
countries agreed to cut production beginning January 1, 2017 -- a decision that is
expected to boost oil prices this year.

PLS Managing Director Brian Lidsky said, "During the downturn, the industry
focused on a trifecta of decreasing costs, increasing recoveries and capital
discipline. Corporate strategies ran the gamut from Chapter 11 restructurings and
exits to bold moves to secure large proven land inventory in anticipation of oil price
recovery in 2017. Certainly, the Delaware basin portion of the Texas Permian
region ranks as 2016's M&A play of the year as fresh equity capital poured into the
area to buy Tier 1 acreage and production in areas like Reeves, Pecos and Loving
counties, Texas to the tune of $18.0 billion. The buying in the Delaware basin,
perhaps best described as hand-to-hand combat, secured nearly 11,000 prime
drilling locations with over six billion boe of net resource at a cost of about
$2.15/boe, excluding Apache's Alpine High discovery. Those buyers fortunate to be

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


27
on the winning side should be positioned very well in a rising oil price
environment."

Within the Permian region, PLS notes that buyers reported securing 18,500 drilling
locations in multiple stacked pays including the Wolfcamp, Bone Springs,
Spraberry and Cline benches. Using an average EUR of 800,000 boe and a 70%
net revenue interest, this level of buying suggests that the industry purchased
about 10.4 billion boe of future resources for about $1.90 per boe on average. This
is remarkable and bodes well for the future production growth coming from the
region. In addition, much of the bought acreage is held by production and allows
for paced drilling that can be throttled under different oil price environments. The
breakeven economics of the vast majority of this acreage is well below $40 per
barrel.

As a further testament to the potential of the Delaware basin portion of the


Permian, Apache Corp. unveiled a virgin resource play deemed the Alpine High,
which is a combo Woodford/Barnett play in southern Reeves County. Apache
quietly leased 20% of the county, or 307,000 net contiguous acres, at $1,300 per
acre ($400 million) and reports a 20-year drilling inventory with individual well
EURs of up to 2.7 million boe. Apache estimates 75 Tcf of rich gas and 3 billion
barrels of oil in place. These numbers assume 2,000-3,000 locations and only a
single landing zone in each of the Woodford and Barnett benches. Additional
resource is possible with multiple landing zones in each of these benches.

Looking Forward

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


28
The oil and gas deal markets are well supplied with inventory, and capital is
available for the right deal. Going into 2016, over $100 billion of dry powder private
equity capital was available. Much of this remains available and was
supplemented, particularly in the last half of 2016, by a receptive Wall Street who
quickly supported overnight secondary equity raises to fund the largest deals. In
addition, PLS anticipates additional capital to come to the forefront as the IPO
markets open up.

All eyes are on OPEC's anticipated production cuts beginning January 1, 2017,
and their impact on oil prices. Pricing stability is a critical component to a healthy
deal market while price shocks tend to keep players sidelined. That said, the
industry has been through a significant deleveraging in the past two years via a
combination of asset sales, Chapter 11 bankruptcies and a dramatic investment
decrease. As prices recover, PLS expects the deal markets to continue to provide
a significant growth platform for those buyers not able to capitalize on 2016's
opportunities.

As drilling and oil prices pick up in the US, PLS expects the increases in EURs via
longer laterals and increased proppant loading to continue to improve. PLS
forecasts the deal markets to expand beyond the white-hot Permian to other prime
oil resource plays including the Eagle Ford and Bakken. On the gas side, as LNG
exports from the U.S. continue to increase, we expect additional deal activity to
occur closer to the Gulf Coast and re-awaken activity in large plays like the
Haynesville, Barnett and gas window of the Eagle Ford.

PLS will publish additional research in the coming days and weeks on the M&A
and capital markets outlooks for 2017.

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/2017-primed-for-growth-after-117-surge-in-
2016-u-s-oil-and-gas-m-a-activity.html?cmpid=enl_PennEnergy_PennEnergyDailyPetroleum_2017-01-
05&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1627217; 05/01/2017.

Fluor awarded refinery project in Chile


(Fluor le fue otorgado proyecto para expansión de la
refinería Biobío en Chile)
January 4, 2017 -- By PennEnergy Editorial Staff -- Source: Fluor Corporation

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


29
Fluor Corporation has been awarded a contract by Empresa Nacional del Petróleo
(ENAP) for the engineering, procurement and construction of a new process unit at
its Biobío refinery in Chile. Fluor booked the undisclosed contract value in the
fourth quarter of 2016.

Fluor will perform the engineering, procurement and construction services to install
a new flue gas steam generator, a wet gas scrubber and purge treatment unit to
treat residual gas generated in the refinery’s fluid catalytic cracker that will reduce
air emissions. Fluor is also responsible for interconnections between the new and
existing unit, which will occur during a schedule-driven 2017 turnaround.

“We leveraged our extensive Chilean experience, strong relationships with local
contractors and our global refining expertise to develop the construction-driven
execution plan that meets the client’s requirements,” said Mark Fields, president of
Fluor’s Energy & Chemicals business in the Americas.

“While Fluor has been active in Chile for more than 35 years, this project is
significant for us as it marks our entry into the oil and gas market in Chile,” said
Andrés Beran, Fluor’s vice president of sales for Latin America. “We look forward
to making this project the first of many to be executed for ENAP in the coming
years.”

Referencia: "PennEnergy Petroleum", <news@pedb-media.com>;


http://www.pennenergy.com/articles/pennenergy/2017/01/fluor-awarded-refinery-project-in-
chile.html?cmpid=enl_PennEnergy_PennEnergyDailyPetroleum_2017-01-
05&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1627217; 05/01/2017

NIOC qualifies 29 firms for tender round


(29 empresas petroleras calificaron para exploración en
Irán)
HOUSTON, Jan. 03/2017 -- By OGJ editors

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


30
National Iranian Oil Co. has designated 29 non-Iranian companies as qualified to
participate in its pending tender round for upstream projects.

The long-delayed round will use the country’s new Iran Petroleum Contract, a
service contract more flexible than the largely unsuccessful buyback contract (OGJ
Online, Sept. 1, 2016). The companies are CEPSA of Spain, CNOOC International
Ltd., CNPC, CNPW, DNO, Eni, Gazprom, Inpex Corp., Itochu, and Japan
Petroleum Exploration.

Also on the list are Korea Gas Corp., Lukoil, Maersk, Mitsubishi Corp., Mitsui,
OMV, ONGC Videsh Ltd., Perenco Holding, Pertamina, and Petronas.

Others are PGNiG, Pluspetrol, POSCO Daewoo, PTTEP, Schlumberger, Shell,


Sinopec International, Total, and Wintershall.

Referencia: " Oil & Gas Journal" <news@ogjo-media.com; http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/01/nioc-


qualifies-29-firms-for-tender-round.html?cmpid=enl_OGJ_OGJEDUpdate_2017-01-
05&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1627891; 05/01/2017.

ExxonMobil Develops Efficient New


Technology to Dehydrate Natural Gas
(Exxonmobil desarrolló una nueva y eficiente tecnología
para deshidratar gas natural)
 Represents a step-change in efficiency and significant reduction in operational
footprint
 Size, weight and cost of natural gas dehydration reduced for land-based and offshore
operations
 Technology licensed to Sulzer for commercial application across the industry

HOUSTON--(BUSINESS WIRE)--ExxonMobil announced today its development of


cMISTTM technology, which dehydrates natural gas using a patented absorption
system inside pipes and replaces the need for conventional dehydration tower
technology. This “in-line” technology could be deployed at both land-based and
offshore natural gas production operations.

The new technology, developed and extensively field-tested by ExxonMobil, more


efficiently removes water vapor present during the production of natural gas.
Removing water vapor through the use of dehydration technology, typically
accomplished using large and expensive dehydration towers, reduces corrosion

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


31
and equipment interference helping to ensure the safe and efficient transport of
natural gas through the supply infrastructure and ultimately to consumers.

cMIST reduces the size, weight and cost of dehydration, resulting in reductions of
surface footprint by 70 percent and the overall dehydration system’s weight by half,
which has significant added benefits on offshore applications.

“By leveraging our industry-leading experience with upstream applications, our


researchers were able to create this advanced natural gas dehydration technology,
which represents a step-change in operational efficiency and a significant reduction
in footprint,” said Tom Schuessler, president of ExxonMobil Upstream Research
Company.

ExxonMobil’s cMIST technology relies on a proprietary droplet generator to break


up conventional solvent into tiny droplets that become well dispersed in the gas
flow thereby increasing the surface area for the absorption of water from the gas.
This is followed by an inline separator that coalesces the water-rich glycol droplets
and moves them to the outside wall of the pipe for effective separation from the
dehydrated natural gas. The water-rich glycol is regenerated using a conventional
system and is sent back to the droplet generator to be used again. The droplet
generator uses the energy from the flowing natural gas to create droplets of the
right size.

ExxonMobil has licensed cMIST technology to the Chemtech division of Sulzer, a


leading player in separation technologies, to facilitate deployment across the oil
and gas industry.

“We are proud to have been selected as worldwide exclusive licensee of the cMIST
technology, which includes our patented compact HiPer™ inline separator,” said
Torsten Wintergerste, president of the Chemtech division. “We look forward to
servicing the oil and gas industry with this unique technology, allowing for much
needed reductions in capital expenditures for both greenfield projects and existing
facilities seeking brownfield debottlenecking opportunities. cMIST technology
complements the Sulzer line of compact multi-phase separation technologies and
will maximize benefits available to oil & gas operating companies around the
world.”

ExxonMobil’s Houston-based Upstream Research Company and New Jersey-


based ExxonMobil Research and Engineering division develop a range of
innovative technologies aimed at producing energy more efficiently. The two
organizations employ more than 1,000 PhD scientists and engineers.

Referencia: " ExxonMobil.com”, http://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-develops-


efficient-new-technology-dehydrate-natural-gasI; 05/01/2017.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


32
Cómo las corporaciones han conseguido
amasar fortunas gracias al agua
Publicado: 4 ene 2017 13:44 GMT | Última actualización: 4 ene 2017 18:57 GMT

Desde las primeras aguas embotelladas hasta las actuales que añaden "principios"
beneficiosos para la salud: una revolución muy lucrativa.

Con gas o sin gas y fría o del tiempo ya no son las únicas opciones de agua
embotellada que tenemos en el mercado. Basta darse un paseo por tiendas
especializadas en productos orgánicos para contemplar estanterías repletas de
aguas especiales: desde aquellas que incluyen vitamina C o coco hasta otras
"potenciadas" con minerales, electrolitos o antioxidantes, y así hasta un sinfín de
variedades.

La industria del agua embotellada es un negocio en auge y no hay un solo mes en


el que no asistamos al lanzamiento de un nuevo producto. Como decía la
periodista Sophie Elmhirst en un artículo publicado en 'The Guardian': "Es un caso
de capitalismo en su forma más hiperactiva y descaradamente inventiva: tomar
una sustancia libremente disponible, vestirla con innumerables trajes diferentes, y
luego venderla como algo nuevo y capaz de transformar el cuerpo, la mente y el
alma".

Y es que el agua ya no es solo un elemento principal de la naturaleza que muchas


empresas han aprovechado para hacer su particular negocio, sino que además se
ha convertido en una etiqueta en blanco sobre la que se puede escribir cualquier
tipo de "ingrediente mágico" para ofrecer a los consumidores la promesa de
innumerables beneficios para su salud.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


33
En las últimas dos décadas, el agua embotellada se ha convertido en el mercado
de bebidas que más ha crecido del mundo. Las cifras hablan por sí solas. Según
denuncian los activistas canadienses Maude Barlow y Tony Clarke en su famoso
libro "Blue Gold: The Battle Against Corporate Theft of the World's Water" ('Oro
azul: la lucha contra el robo corporativo del agua del mundo'), en la década de los
70 el volumen anual de agua embotellada que se comercializaba en todo el mundo
no superaba los 1.000 millones de litros, mientras que en la siguiente década el
consumo se duplicó. Ya en el año 2000, las ventas anuales ascendieron a más
de 84.000 millones de litros y los pronósticos indican que en 2017 se consumirán
391.000 millones de litros de agua embotellada.

Desde la época medieval hasta la primera cloración

Para ser una sustancia que cae del cielo y que brota de forma natural de la tierra,
el agua siempre ha tenido una extraordinaria capacidad comercial. Según James
Salzman, autor del libro "Drinking Water: a History" ('Beber agua: una historia'), ya
en la época medieval los monjes ofrecían frascos de aguas especiales a los
peregrinos como prueba de su visita. Durante siglos, los ricos europeos viajaron a
ciudades conocidas por sus balnearios para probar sus beneficiosas agua
e intentar curar sus enfermedades.

Sin embargo, fue en 1740 cuando se puso en marcha una de las primeras
empresas embotelladoras de agua, Harrogate Spring, en Reino Unido. Apenas 70
años más tarde, la compañía se convirtió en la mayor exportadora de agua
embotellada del país. Y todavía hoy, se anuncia en su web por ser "respetada y
reconocida como una de las marcas de agua embotellada más finas".

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


34
Sin embargo, a principios del siglo XX, una de las principales revoluciones que ha
experimentado este elemento natural estuvo a punto de acabar con el naciente
negocio: una epidemia de la fiebre tifoidea en Lincoln, en 1905, provocó que el
doctor Alexander Cruickshank Houston probara la primera cloración en un
suministro de agua pública. Su experimento funcionó, y pronto, esta práctica se
extendió por todo el mundo.

El descubrimiento provocó que la industria del agua embotellada se viese


claramente amenazada, ya que hasta esa fecha comprar agua potable había sido
una necesidad de los ricos. Los pobres simplemente tuvieron que soportar durante
siglos - y todavía siguen soportando - beber agua no potable, y muchas veces han
pagado con su vida las consecuencias de ello.

¿Quién iba a gastar su dinero en algo que salía de un grifo?

Según la citada periodista, la respuesta llegó en 1977 de la mano de una de "las


mayores piezas de la historia de la narración publicitaria de la televisión". Se
trataba de un anuncio con la voz profunda de Orson Welles, quien relataba:
"En lo profundo de las llanuras del sur de Francia, en un misterioso proceso
iniciado hace millones de años, la propia Naturaleza añade vida a las heladas
aguas de una sola fuente: Perrier", mientras los telespectadores veían el agua
caer dentro de un vaso y admiraban la botella de cristal. El marketing había hecho
historia.

El anuncio formaba parte de una campaña estadounidense de 5 millones de


dólares, la más grande de la historia para un agua embotellada, y resultó ser un
gran éxito. De 1975 a 1978, las ventas de Perrier en los EE.UU. aumentaron de
2,5 millones de botellas a más de 75 millones.

No fue la única empresa agraciada. De repente, las botellas de agua embotellada


comenzaron a acompañar a las grandes "celebrities" estadounidenses, como
sucedió con el primer vídeo de Jane Fonda haciendo ejercicio en 1982 o Jack
Nicholson en una ceremonia de los Óscar. "El esnobismo del agua ha
reemplazado al esnobismo del vino como novedad. La gente ordena sus 'eau'
por orden de marca, como alguna vez hicieron con sus Scotch", señalaba la
revista Time en un artículo publicado en 1985.

Pronto, las grandes marcas de refrescos, viendo la oportunidad comercial,


lanzaron sus propias aguas: Aquafina de PepsiCo en 1994, Dasani de Coca-Cola
en 1999 o Puré Life de Nestlé en 2002. El negocio del agua se había convertido
en una realidad, aunque más tarde algunas de las nacientes marcas estuviesen
envueltas en escándalos relacionados con embotellar agua del grifo y no de los
manantiales, como prometían a los consumidores.

Sin embargo, tal y como explica Sophie Elmhirst, en el citado artículo, lo peor del
negocio estaba por llegar: "Si la última década fue testigo de la gran expansión

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


35
comercial del agua, 2016 podría definirse como el año en que el mercado perdió la
cabeza. Ahora parece que no hay límite en lo que un agua puede ser, o lo que los
consumidores están dispuestos a comprar. Ya no basta con que el agua sea
simplemente agua: debe tener poderes especiales".

Referencia: " RT en español”, <actuallidadrt.com>; https://actualidad.rt.com/actualidad/227656-


historia-locura-negocio-agua-embotellada; 05/01/2017

Turkmenistan halts gas exports to Iran


(Turkmenistán paró exportaciones de gas natural a Irán)
HOUSTON, Jan. 04/2017 -- By OGJ editors

Turkmenistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has confirmed that state-owned


Turkmengas suspended exports of natural gas to Iran on Jan. 1 in a payments
dispute.

National Iranian Gas Co. on Jan. 1 had complained that Turkmengas demanded
“immediate payment of arrears,” which it called a “sheer violation” of the countries’
agreement. A statement from the Turkmen foreign ministry said NIGC since 2013
has not shown “appropriate efforts to pay off the debts for natural Turkmen gas
which has been previously supplied to the Islamic Republic.”

It cited “a vast debt” without specifying amounts and said payment delays
hampered Turkmengas operations related to the exports.

NIGC responded on Jan. 4 with a statement saying it had paid “all its dues and a
part of the debt…in different ways amounting to over $4.5 billion.”

The unpaid debt, it said, relates to international sanctions imposed in 2012, which
block direct payments. NIGC said it has paid Turkmenistan “huge amounts” in
goods and services during the sanctions period.

Since 1997, Turkmenistan has exported as much as 10 billion cu m/year of gas to


Iran by pipeline. Exports totaled 7.2 billion cu m in 2015, according to the BP
Statistical Review of World Energy.

Referencia: " Oil & Gas Journal" <news@ogjo-media.com;


http://www.ogj.com/articles/2017/01/turkmenistan-halts-gas-exports-to-
iran.html?cmpid=enl_OGJ_OGJDailyUpdate_2017-01-
04&email_address=paezd@pdvsa.com&eid=288268542&bid=1626974; 04/01/2017.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


36
1.360.621 hogares ha construido la GMVV en
todo el país
(Logros 2016 de la revolución Bolivariana)
3.Ene.2017 / 04:09 pm / Haga un comentario

El Gobierno Bolivariano ha construido 1.360.621 viviendas dignas desde la


creación de la Gran Misión Vivienda Venezuela (GMVV), hace cinco años, informó
este martes el ministro para Hábitat y Vivienda, Manuel Quevedo.

Tras concluir la primera reunión del año del Órgano Superior de Vivienda,
Quevedo indicó en transmisión de Venezolana de Televisión que la GMVV
también ha entregado 761.469 títulos de propiedad.

Sólo en 2016, gracias a las políticas implementadas por el presidente de la


República, Nicolás Maduro, se entregaron 350.874 nuevos hogares, “un récord
histórico en la entrega más alta de la historia de la Gran Misión Vivienda
Venezuela”, destacó.

En tanto, la Gran Misión Barrio Nuevo, Barrio Tricolor (BNBT), en cinco años, ha
rehabilitado en total 351.237 viviendas.
Informó que este jueves se realizará la entrega de 731 hogares dignos al mismo
número de familias, en los estados Anzoátegui, Miranda, Lara y Aragua, así como
604 títulos de propiedad.

Indicó que en los próximos días el Jefe de Estado aprobará las metas de este año,
“que nos comprometen a seguir avanzando y construyendo la Venezuela
socialista”.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


37
En relación con el plan de limpieza de quebradas y túneles, llevado a cabo por los
misioneros de los corredores habitacionales, indicó que esta semana aumentará a
400 el número de caños intervenidos para prevenir los efectos ocasionados por el
arrojo indebido de desechos sólidos.

Referencia: " Boletin PSUV”, <boletin@psuv.org.ve>;


http://www.psuv.org.ve/?p=192211#.WG5Iw3rj90I; 04/01/2017.

8 technology breakthroughs that may


change the energy landscape
(Ocho desarrollos tecnológicos que pueden cambiar el
panorama energético)
Last edited: 26 November 2016

What are some of the emerging technologies that have the potential to
transform the way energy is produced and used? And what might they
mean for BP and the energy industry as a whole?

None of us has a crystal ball to see what the future will look like. What we can be
sure of though is that the world is changing rapidly and our lives will be very
different by 2050. From mobility to healthcare, communications to education, as Bill
Gates has put it: “Innovation is moving at a scarily fast pace.”

Individuals and industries alike will need to adapt to these new developments, to
make the most of opportunities. As BP launches its first Technology Outlook, group
chief executive Bob Dudley says: “In the corporate world, history tells us that
companies that fail to anticipate or adapt to new technologies fail to survive. On the
other hand, companies with leading technologies are often the most competitive
and successful.”

Emerging technologies present business risks and opportunities for any industry.
The energy sector is no exception. Although radical innovation and disruption in
this industry are relatively infrequent, transformational change can take place –
often within relatively short timeframes and with dramatic consequences.

So, what are some of the future trends and innovations that may make an impact
on the world of energy? BP’s emerging technology manager, Dan Walker,
ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016
38
highlights eight breakthroughs that might be significant. This is what the future may
look like…

1. Quantum leap: beyond silicon computing

Why?
Unlike some other emerging technology areas where progress is less certain,
computing innovation is set to continue at the rapid pace we’ve already witnessed.
Back in 1970, Moore’s Law predicted that overall processing power for computers
would roughly double every two years – and that has generally continued to hold
true. Even if the pace of change slows, new applications provide ongoing potential
for digitization to transform the way people live and work, as smart-phones have
demonstrated.

The next leap in computing technology looks set to be based on quantum


mechanics – the science of atomic structure and function. Quantum computing
uses the ‘qubit’, or quantum bit, which can hold an infinite number of values.
Today?
Exponential increases in the power and speed of computers – along with
decreasing costs – are already having a significant impact on the energy business,
and beyond. As the complexity of technology has evolved, we’ve turned to intricate
algorithms to process, model and analyse data. This already requires massive
computing power: at BP, we opened our High-Performance Computing Center in
Houston, US, two years ago. It’s home to one of the world’s largest
supercomputers for commercial research – with a total memory of 1,000 terabytes
and disk space of 23.5 petabytes, the equivalent of more than 40,000 average
laptop computers. The centre serves as a worldwide hub to process and manage
massive amounts of geophysical data, helping our scientists to ‘see’ more clearly
what lies beneath the Earth’s surface.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


39
Tomorrow?
Quantum technologies have the potential to process huge data sets at faster rates
than today’s silicon-based, digital computers can. They use electrons, or even
polarized light, that can be interlinked to perform many operations at once. While
currently at an embryonic stage of development, these technologies have been
identified as having significant potential.

2. Number crunching: data analytics

Why?
The volume of data in the world is growing at an unprecedented rate. Even the
vocabulary used to describe it has to expand to keep up; where once it was
‘Megabyte’, terms such as ‘Yottabyte’ now exist. To put it in perspective, it would
take approximately 11 trillion years to download a Yottabyte file from the internet
using high-power broadband. These are the type of volumes that we may be
dealing with in the decades to come.

But data only becomes useful when it can be handled properly; the mathematical
treatment of data – or analytics – helps companies to make faster, better and more
focused business decisions in a world where the quantity of data could become
overwhelming.
Today?

In the energy industry, increased use of sensors and real-time data acquisition has
already seen exponential growth in the volume, variety and velocity of data
gathered from operations. For example, BP is using big data analytics technology
to screen huge geoscience data sets – in a project for the UK North Sea, data from
5,000 wells was analysed in just a few seconds, whereas a 100-well dataset would
normally take a geologist a month to analyse.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


40
Tomorrow?
The potential to process and analyse big data in seconds, rather than months, will
continue to open up vast opportunities: for BP and others, it may revolutionise the
drilling of oil and gas wells, optimise production and enhance the overall
performance of operations. In short, the future lies in gathering these huge
volumes of data, understanding it to draw useful insights and then optimizing our
business activities as a result. This is commonly referred to as the industrial
internet of things – where the integration of complex machinery with networked
sensors and software allows industry to capture and analyse data and use it to
optimise operations.

3. Super-charged: better batteries for vehicles

Why?
Today’s car manufacturers are juggling competing demands for their latest models:
customers want fewer emissions, along with improved fuel efficiency. Battery
technologies may provide the answers for both.

Today?
Battery technology for transportation is already advancing, with particular progress
in reliability, costs, safety and capacity for enhanced range. In turn, these
developments are having an impact on the forecast production of electric vehicles,
as the technology allows batteries to become more competitive with the internal
combustion engine.
Tomorrow?
Next-generation batteries, such as rechargeable lithium sulphur batteries, are
expected to increase energy capacity threefold by 2025, as well as reduce vehicle

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


41
weight and cost. Continued development is supported by regulatory pressures for
greater fuel economy and lower tailpipe emissions.

Significant improvements in battery technology would increase the use of hybrid


and electric vehicles, thereby also influencing future fossil fuel demand in the
transport sector. BP’s models suggest that combined hybrid and battery/electric
vehicle sales may account for 10% of global sales by 2023-4. Furthermore,
projections show that the cost of running an electric vehicle which uses battery
power will fall from 26.2 US cents per kilometre in 2012, to 14.3 cents in 2050.

4. I, robot: automation via robotics

Why?
Automation may affect many aspects of life in the years to come. For the energy
industry specifically, applications may include deploying robots to inspect difficult-
to-access elements such as offshore risers, and piloting unmanned aerial systems
– or drones – into areas that are challenging for human intervention. But,
automation is also likely to become a staple of everyday life. Self-driving - or
autonomous – vehicles are just one example: they could shake up the
transportation sector in a big way, with impacts on consumers, energy
consumption and information technology. As Dr Steven Griffiths of the Masdar
Institute of Science and Technology puts it: “It’s going to change the way we live.”
Today?

Research and development in the automation sphere has gained traction in recent
years, with technology giants such as Google and vehicle manufacturers such as
Mercedes leading the efforts. In fact, Google’s self-driving prototype cars have
already notched up more than one million miles on the roads of Mountain View,
California, and Austin, Texas. Elsewhere, partially-autonomous vehicles are
making their way to market and many modern cars have automated mechanisms
for specific functions.
ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016
42
Tomorrow?
High levels of automation are not expected in the very near future, but at least one
car manufacturer has stated they will have a fully autonomous vehicle available by
2025. Experts predict that a decade after that, a large fraction of the car market will
be at least partially autonomous.

However, these predictions don’t allow any precise evaluation of the final impact of
this technology on transport fuel demand or the future fuel mix. Automation is likely
to have varying effects on the cost of transport, congestion, car ownership models
and travel mileage, but nevertheless the technology does offer the possibility of
fundamentally changing the transportation sector.
Image credit: Google

5. Off the grid: fuel cells

Why?
Fuel cells rely on hydrogen as their energy source, so this technology goes hand-
in-hand with the development of infrastructure and storage of hydrogen [see #6].
Fuel cells offer more efficient electricity generation, compared to combustion
methods, with fewer emissions generated when the hydrogen is generated from
low-carbon sources. Fuel-cell vehicles typically have a potential range up to 500
kilometres, which would alleviate some of the ‘range anxiety’ inherent with today’s
battery-powered electric vehicles.

Today?
The ‘stationary’ sector has led technology developments to date, with limited trials
in transport. Stationary fuel cells could offer a competitive alternative to battery
systems, in areas such as telecoms, back-up systems and auxiliary power units.
Fuel cell electric vehicles are also gaining popularity among automotive
manufacturers, as they offer an acceptable driving range and competitive fuel
economy. However, the technology remains expensive – currently around four
times the cost of a conventional vehicle.
Tomorrow?
Despite some momentum in advances, the development of this technology – and
the associated hydrogen infrastructure – face a number of challenges, including
how to produce hydrogen in bulk, at a low cost and from a low-carbon source.
There are also questions as to how highly-combustible hydrogen can be safely
carried in vehicles, as well as how to develop an efficient and cost-effective
refuelling infrastructure. If these factors could be overcome, fuel cells would have
the potential to significantly change the energy mix of the transport sector.

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


43
6. The first element: hydrogen infrastructure and storage

Why?
Hydrogen may offer a variety of uses as a low-carbon, renewable high-energy
source. Those uses include as an efficient energy storage method or in transport
applications (for example, in fuel cells, as above) as an alternative to
hydrocarbons, with its zero exhaust emissions.
Today?
Hydrogen is produced at scale to create ammonia for use in fertilizers, as well as in
the processing of crude oil to break it down into refined products. The current
technology relies on natural gas as the feedstock to make hydrogen – alternative
methods to produce it from low-carbon sources, such as solar or wind power, are
at varying stages of development.

Currently, hydrogen storage relies on compression and liquefaction, with industrial-


scale facilities today in underground salt caverns and aquifers, which demand large
energy input and offer little scope for long-term improvements.
Tomorrow?
Developing economically viable, low-carbon sources of hydrogen faces many
technical challenges. For hydrogen to play a significant role as a transport fuel, a
suitable storage mechanism also needs to be developed. With the right advances
in production and infrastructure though, hydrogen technologies may have a
considerable impact on the fuel mix in the power and transport sectors.

7. Empire of the sun: next-generation solar conversion

Why?
By 2050, the International Energy Agency forecasts that solar photovoltaic
technology could generate up to 16% of the world’s electricity. It also predicts that
solar thermal electricity could provide another 11% on top of that. So, photovoltaic
energy remains a promising emerging technology.
Today?
Over the past six years, solar modules have reduced in cost by some 80%.
However, these technologies remain very capital intensive, with the majority of
expenditure required upfront. Statistics from BP’s Technology Outlook show that in
2012, utility-scale solar photovoltaic technology was the most expensive way of
generating electricity in North America, compared to seven other sources, including
onshore wind, nuclear and coal.
Tomorrow?
Current solar cells are mainly made of silicon-based materials. Breakthrough
technologies such as perovskite (a compound containing earth-abundant minerals)
ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016
44
solar cells are evolving. Along with improved designs that convert a higher
percentage of light than today’s solar cells, these technologies promise higher
efficiencies, lower cost and flexibility in application. In addition, improvements in
biotechnology are likely to improve agricultural performance, enhancing the
efficiency and scale of solar conversion to biomass.

Overall advances in this area may affect natural gas usage for electricity
generation, as well as accelerate electrification in the transport sector.

8. Attack of the clones: 3D printing

Why?
In the seemingly short time it has been with us, 3D printing has raised a number of
new possibilities, from palaeontologists making replicas of dinosaur bones to
would-be designers creating their own plastic shoes. For industry, the prospect of
low-cost printing of customized parts – in a range of materials – gives the
technique plenty of potential.

Today?
Until now, the technology has mainly been used for prototyping. However,
production of complex, tailored parts at a low volume is on the increase, in fields
such as aerospace, for example.
Tomorrow?
The oil and gas industry – and many others – see opportunities to use this
technology, especially to produce parts on-demand in a specific material. For
example, 3D printers on an offshore facility may mean complex components can
be manufactured in remote locations, saving time and improving efficiency. Uses of
3D printing is set to grow over the next 10 years as applications are identified and
opportunities arise with new materials and equipment.

Referencia: " BP.com”, http://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/bp-magazine/innovations/8-


technology-breakthroughs-that-may-change-the-energy-landscape.html; 26/12/2016..
ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016
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El material contenido en este ALERTA fue recopilado, analizado
y preparado por Daniel E. Páez.
Si desea recibir copia del mismo, envíe correo a:
paezd@pdvsa.com, 0212-3306240

ALERTAS ENERGÉTICOS Y GEOPOLÍTICOS 2016


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