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NACIONAL
Escuela Superior de Economía
Alumnos:
Arciniega Ríos Sergio Ángel
Flores González Abel Saúl
García Muñoz Josué Gael
Gayol Salas Laur Rogerio
Profr.
b. Ninguna se descompone
P ( Ninguna se descompone )=( 0.99 )( 0.98 ) ( 0.95 ) ( 0.90 )
b. Ninguna sea A
P ( Ninguna sea A ) =( 0.20 ) ( 0.60 )
c. En L sea A y en F no sea A
P ( L sea A , F no sea A )=( 0.80 )( 0.60 )
P ( L sea A , F no sea A )=0.48 ( 100 )
P ( L sea A , F no sea A )=48 %
Se toman las probabilidades de que ocurran los anteriores escenarios y se les resta
a 1 para saber cuál es la probabilidad de no ocurrencia de cada uno.
P ( Ninguna de las anteriores )=0.311168 ( 100 )
P ( Ninguna de las anteriores )=31.1168 %
(0.10)( 0.60)
P ( cinturon )=
( 0.10 )( 0.60 )+(0.50)(0.40)
( 0.06 )
P ( cinturon )=
( 0.06 ) + ( 0.2 )
( 0.06 )
P ( cinturon )= =0.2307 ( 100 )
( 0.26 )
P ( cinturon )=23.07 %
P ( A ) P(B∨A )
P ( A|B )=
P ( A 1 ) P ( B|A ) + P ( A 2 ) P(B∨ A2 )
( 0.90)(0.60)
P ( cinturon )=
( 0.90 )( 0.60 )+(0.50)(0.40)
( 0.54 )
P ( cinturon )=
( 0.54 ) + ( 0.2 )
( 0.54 )
P ( cinturon )= =0.7297 ( 100 )
( 0.74 )
P ( cinturon )=72.97 %
Conclusión: La probabilidad de que el primer conductor llevase puesto el cinturón de
seguridad al momento del choque es del 23.07%, mientras que el conductor del
automóvil el cual no recibió tantas heridas tiene una probabilidad del 72.97% de llevarlo
puesto.
P ( A ) P(B∨A )
P ( A|B )=
P ( A 1 ) P ( B|A ) + P ( A 2 ) P(B∨ A2 )
(0.50)(0.75)
P ( A∨B )=
( 0.50 ) ( 0.75 ) +(0.50)(0.10)
( 0.375 )
P ( A∨B )=
( 0.375 ) + ( 0.05 )
( 0.375 )
P ( A∨B )= =0.8823 ( 100 )
( 0.425 )
P ( A∨B )=88.23 %
Conclusión: La probabilidad de que al estarse divirtiendo juan haya conocido una chica
nueva es del 88.23%.
a. ¿Cuántos problemas esperaría que se resolvieran este dia?,¿Cuál es la
desviación estándar?
μ=15 ( 0.70 )=10.5
2
σ =10.5(1−0.70)
σ 2=10.5(0.3)
2
σ =3.15
σ =√ σ = √3.15 ∴ σ=1.7748
2
P ( 10 )=
[ 360,360
120 ]
( 0.0282 ) ( 0.00243 )
P ( 10 )=(84.6846) ( 0.00243 )
P ( 10 )=0.2057 ( 100 )
P ( 10 )=20.57 %
P ( 10 )=
[ 32760
24 ]
( 0.0197 ) ( 0.0081 )
P ( 10 )=(26.8905) ( 0.0081 )
P ( 10 )=0.2178 ( 100 )
P ( 10 )=21.78 %
P ( 10u 11 )=P ( 10 ) + P ( 11 )
P ( 10u 11 )=0.2057+0.2178
P ( 10u 11 )=0.4235 ( 100 )
P ( 10u 11 )=42.35 %
x n−x
P ( x ) =nCx π ( 1−π )
15 !
P ( 12 )= ( 0.70 )12 ( 1−0.70 )15−12
12 ! ( 15−12 ) !
15 !
P ( 12 )= ( 0.0138 )( 0.3 )3
12 ! ( 3 ) !
15∗14∗13∗12!
P ( 12 )= ( 0.0138 ) ( 0.027 )
11! 4 !
15∗14∗13
P ( 12 )= ( 0.0138 )( 0.027 )
3∗2∗1
P ( 12 )=
[ 2730
6 ]
( 0.0138 ) ( 0.027 )
x n−x
P ( x ) =nCx π ( 1−π )
15 !
P ( 13 )= ( 0.70 )13 ( 1−0.70 )15−13
13! (15−13 ) !
15 !
P ( 13 )= ( 0.0096 ) ( 0.3 )2
13! ( 2 ) !
15∗14∗13 !
P ( 13 )= ( 0.0096 ) ( 0.09 )
13 ! 2 !
15∗14
P ( 13 )= ( 0.0096 )( 0.09 )
2∗1
P ( 13 )=
[ 210
2 ]
( 0.0096 ) ( 0.09 )
P ( 13 )=(1.008) ( 0.09 )
P ( 13 )=0.0907 ( 100 )
P ( 13 )=9.072 %
x n−x
P ( x ) =nCx π ( 1−π )
15!
P ( 14 )= ( 0.70 )14 ( 1−0.70 )15−14
14 ! ( 15−14 ) !
15!
P ( 14 )= ( 0.0067 )( 0.3 )1
14 ! ( 1 ) !
15∗14 !
P ( 14 )= ( 0.0067 ) ( 0.3 )
14 ! 1 !
15
P ( 14 )= ( 0.0067 ) ( 0.3 )
1!
P ( 14 )=
[ 15
1 ]
( 0.0067 ) ( 0.3 )
x n−x
P ( x ) =nCx π ( 1−π )
15 !
P ( 15 )= ( 0.70 )15 ( 1−0.70 )15−15
15! (15−15 ) !
15 !
P ( 15 )= ( 0.0047 )( 0.3 )0
15! ( 0 ) !
1
P ( 15 )= ( 0.0047 )( 1 )
0!
P ( 15 )=(1) ( 0.0047 ) ( 1 )
P ( 15 )=(0.0047) ( 1 )
P ( 15 )=0.0047 (100)
P ( 15 )=0.47 %
Se sacan las probabilidades de todos los números por encima de 10 hasta el límite
de observaciones, para de este modo sumarlas y obtener aquellas probabilidades
por encima de 10.
P ( ¿ 10 )=P ( 11 )+ P ( 12 ) + P ( 13 ) + P ( 14 ) + P ( 15 )
P ( ¿ 10 )=0.2178+0.1695+ 0.0907+0.0301+0.0047
P ( ¿ 10 )=0.5128 ( 100 )
P ( ¿ 10 )=51.28 %
X= 0
P ( x=0 )=
( 0 ! ( 3−0 ) ! 2 ! ( 7−2 ) ! )
3!
)( 7!
n= 2
( 2 ! ( 10−2) ! )
10 !
P ( x=0 )=
( 1 ( 3 ) ! 2! ( 5 ) ! )
3!
)( 7∗6∗5 !
( 10∗9∗8
2 ! (8) ! )
!
P ( x=0 )=
(
( 1)
2∗1 )
7∗6
( 10∗9
2∗1 )
( 1 ) ( 21 )
P ( x=0 )=
( 45 )
Conclusión: Para que ninguno de los prestamos seleccionados sea “Por debajo del
agua”, tomamos en cuenta una probabilidad de 0.4666 o 46.66%.
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
3 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
3!
(1)( 0.3678)
P ( x) =
3∗2∗1
( 0.3678 )
P ( 3 )=
6
P ( 3 )=0.0613 ( 100 )
P ( 3 )=6.13 %
μ x e−μ
( )
P x=
x!
4 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
4!
P ( 4 )=0.0153 ( 100 )
P ( 4 )=1.53 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
5 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
5!
P ( x ) =0.0030 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.3 %
x −μ
( ) μ e
P x=
x!
6 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
6!
P ( x ) =0.00051 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.051 %
x −μ
μ e
P ( x) =
x!
7 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
7!
P ( x ) =0.000072 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0072 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
8 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
8!
P ( x ) =0.0000091 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00091 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
9 −1
1 e
( )
P x=
9!
P ( x ) =0.0000010 (100 )
P ( x ) =0.0001 %
x −μ
μ e
P ( x) =
x!
10 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
10 !
P ( x ) =0.00000010 (100 )
P ( x ) =0.00001 %
x −μ
μ e
( )
P x=
x!
111 e−1
P ( x) =
11 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000092 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000092 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
112 e−1
P ( x) =
12 !
P ( x ) =0.00000000076 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.000000076 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
113 e−1
P ( x) =
13 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000059 (100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000059 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
14 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
14 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000000042 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000042%
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
15 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
15 !
P ( x ) =0.00000000000028 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.000000000028 %
x −μ
( ) μ e
P x=
x!
16 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
16 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000000017 (100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000017 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
117 e−1
P ( x) =
17 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000010 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000000010 %
x −μ
μ e
P ( x) =
x!
118 e−1
P ( x) =
18 !
P ( x ) =0.000 000000000000057 (100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000057 %
x −μ
( ) μ e
P x=
x!
119 e−1
P ( x) =
19 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000030 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000030 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
20 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
20 !
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000015 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000015 %
( ) μ x e−μ
P x=
x!
21 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
21 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000072 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000072%
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
( ) 122 e−1
P x=
22 !
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000032 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000032 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
123 e−1
P ( x) =
23 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000014 (100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000014 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
24 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
24 !
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000059 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000059 %
x −μ
μ e
P ( x) =
x!
25 −1
1 e
( )
P x=
25 !
P ( x ) =0.000 000000000000000000000023 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000023 %
x −μ
μ e
P ( x) =
x!
26 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
26 !
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000091 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000000091 %
( ) μ x e−μ
P x=
x!
127 e−1
P ( x) =
27 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000000000033 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000033 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
28 −1
1 e
( )
P x=
28 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000012 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000012%
x −μ
μ e
P ( x) =
x!
29 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
29 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000000000000041 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000041 %
x −μ
μ e
( )
P x=
x!
130 e−1
P ( x) =
30 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000013 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000000013 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
131 e−1
P ( x) =
31 !
P ( x ) =0.000 000000000000000000000000000000044 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000044 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
32 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
32 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000000013 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000000000013 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
33 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
33 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000000000000000000042 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000000042 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
34 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
34 !
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000012 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000000000000012 %
x −μ
( ) μ e
P x=
x!
35 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
35 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000035 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000035 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
136 e−1
P ( x) =
36 !
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000098 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000 98 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
137 e−1
P ( x) =
37 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000026 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000026 %
x −μ
( ) μ e
P x=
x!
138 e−1
P ( x) =
38 !
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000070 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000070 %
μ x e−μ
P ( x) =
x!
39 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
39 !
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000018 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000018 %
( ) μ x e−μ
P x=
x!
40 −1
1 e
P ( x) =
40!
P ( x ) =0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000045 ( 100 )
P ( x ) =0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000045 %