PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS (mm)

AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS ES

1999 95.6
2000 50.8
200
2001 85.3
2002 98.9 180
2003 26.6
2004 25.5 160
2005 47.0 140
2006 43.6
2007 24.4 120
2008 135.0
100
2009 74.0
2010 62.3 80
2011 45.1
2012 151.7 60
2013 52.0 40
2014 10.0
2015 59.9 20
2016 54.9
0
2017 188.2
2018 70.4 9 9 0 2 05 08 11 1 4 17
2019 188.2 1 9 20 2 0 20 20 20 20
 ESTACION CHULUCANAS

5 8 1 4 7
0 0 2 0 0 20 1 20 1 2 0 1

Herramientas / Análisis de Datos / Estadística Desciptiva

PUENTE SANCHEZ CERRO
Media 666.2
Mediana 364.5
Moda 390
Desviación estándar 883.4
Varianza 780454
Curtosis 4.60
Coeficiente de asimetría 2.06
Rango 4424
Mínimo 0
Máximo 4424
Suma 49299.5
Cuenta 74
PRECIPITACION MAXIMAS EN 24 HORAS (mm)
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS F(x)
1999 95.6 188.2 0.9860497408725
2000 50.8 188.2 0.9860497408725
2001 85.3 151.7 0.9312859856832
2002 98.9 135.0 0.8767929454576
2003 26.6 98.9 0.674968458765
2004 25.5 95.6 0.6514319730843
2005 47.0 85.3 0.5745293354637
2006 43.6 74.0 0.4868790164615
2007 24.4 70.4 0.4588851288455
2008 135.0 62.3 0.3964787699553
2009 74.0 59.9 0.378880278295
2010 62.3 54.9 0.3423243847839
2011 45.1 52.0 0.3217551232556
2012 151.7 50.8 0.3133965065194
2013 52.0 47.0 0.2875687787188
2014 10.0 45.1 0.2750437151654
2015 59.9 43.6 0.2653490995862
2016 54.9 26.6 0.1687448946643
2017 188.2 25.5 0.1633871376764
2018 70.4 24.4 0.1581411292507
2019 188.2 10.0 0.0996555331057
 f(x) MEDIA 75.68
0.0006952195 DESV.EST. 51.17
0.0006952195
0.0025865174
0.0039821191 F(x)
0.0070333559
0.0072271161 1
0.0076592784 0.9
0.0077914986
0.8
0.0077542783
0.007531758 0.7
0.0074336123 0.6
0.0071786002
0.5
0.0070040179
0.0069265154 0.4
0.0066624909 0.3
0.0065207799 0.2
0.0064047957
0.1
0.0049214465
0.0048199076 0
0.0047182832 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
0.003420773
f(x)

0.009

0.008

0.007

0.006

0.005

0.004

0.003

0.002

0.001

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x) F(x)
1999 95.6 188.2 5.237505227151 0.9415822513305
2000 50.8 188.2 5.237505227151 0.9415822513305
2001 85.3 151.7 5.021904886354 0.8980842152335
2002 98.9 135.0 4.905274778438 0.8664541175605
2003 26.6 98.9 4.594109238629 0.7518868483893
2004 25.5 95.6 4.560172820057 0.7368336115544
2005 47.0 85.3 4.446174454498 0.6830765453605
2006 43.6 74.0 4.304065093204 0.6103522218319
2007 24.4 70.4 4.254193263164 0.5837218370515
2008 135.0 62.3 4.131182874832 0.5166289612357
2009 74.0 59.9 4.092676505121 0.4954376787908
2010 62.3 54.9 4.005513348515 0.4476092888734
2011 45.1 52.0 3.951243718581 0.4181670250493
2012 151.7 50.8 3.927896354584 0.4056305132591
2013 52.0 47.0 3.85014760171 0.364642394226
2014 10.0 45.1 3.808882246509 0.3434686260426
2015 59.9 43.6 3.775057150355 0.326468181343
2016 54.9 26.6 3.280911215788 0.1289206586559
2017 188.2 25.5 3.238678452164 0.1170662959619
2018 70.4 24.4 3.194583132299 0.1055359677867
2019 188.2 10.0 2.302585092994 0.0065433705636
 f(x) MEDIA 75.68 MEDIA 4.1010
0.1609566146 DESV.EST. 51.17 DESV.EST. 0.7247
0.1609566146
0.2455254542
0.2973596547 C.ASIMETRIA -0.48352796
0.4367035837
0.4503478098 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
0.4914270413
0.5292638597 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
0.5382932299
0.5499813161 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
0.5504235851 --> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
0.5457061178
0.5388379463 z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
0.5349861831
0.5184631001 z = 2.32634787
0.5075235024
0.4975243334 y=m+z S
0.2902081133
0.2712292646 y = 5,435 + 2,326 * 1,805
0.2518224252
0.025332305 y= 5.7870

y= ln (x)

x= e (y)

x = 326.024184
 F(x)

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

f(x)

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

f(x)

0.6

0.5

0.4
 f(x)

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
2 3 4 5 6
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION LOG - NORMAL DE 3 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS y = ln (x-a) F(x)
1999 95.6 188.2 5.346918615887 0.9615829742155
2000 50.8 188.2 5.346918615887 0.9615829742155
2001 85.3 151.7 5.155948937123 0.9176217924268
2002 98.9 135.0 5.054718088873 0.8825360938014
2003 26.6 98.9 4.792979421498 0.7475480628682
2004 25.5 95.6 4.765248959603 0.7295983982696
2005 47.0 85.3 4.673392522594 0.6659536332338
2006 43.6 74.0 4.561848524408 0.5818970783777
2007 24.4 70.4 4.523529795386 0.551906331252
2008 135.0 62.3 4.430957822044 0.4785564962805
2009 74.0 59.9 4.402568347023 0.4560922989043
2010 62.3 54.9 4.339384385963 0.4066987706209
2011 45.1 52.0 4.300821075343 0.3772155553261
2012 151.7 50.8 4.284418376257 0.3648780322068
2013 52.0 47.0 4.230627003549 0.3254483608041
2014 10.0 45.1 4.202605841085 0.3056248731039
2015 59.9 43.6 4.179915524478 0.2899765194354
2016 54.9 26.6 3.878679883305 0.1244479996784
2017 188.2 25.5 3.85567128893 0.1152967297944
2018 70.4 24.4 3.83212080659 0.1064360664675
2019 188.2 10.0 3.458218078159 0.0232995741573

a -21.7603

Mediana 59.9
 f(x) MEDIA 75.68 MEDIA 4.4580
0.165975687 DESV.EST. 51.17 DESV.EST. 0.5024
0.165975687 a (21.7603)
0.3025198658
0.3921987855 C.ASIMETRIA 0.138257213
0.6357778816
0.6586087471
0.7243216898 Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,
0.77726678
0.787327121 sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc
0.7929104199
0.7892435905 --> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01
0.7722416652 --> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99
0.756145399
0.7480638679 z = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.NORM.ESTAND.INV(0,99)
0.716781102
0.697830817 z = 2.32634787
0.6812987732
0.4084670758 y=m+z S
0.3870514789
0.3654990822 y = 5,731 + 2,326 * 1,367
0.1096457347
y= 5.6268
0.6

y= ln (x - a) 0.5

x-a= e (y) 0.4

0.3
x - a = 277.759436
0.2
x = 7413,477 - 25,068
0.1

x = 255.999104 0
2
 LN3; C.A.=0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
3 4 5 6

LN2; C.A.=-0,8
0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0
2 3 4 5 6
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GUMBEL
Var. Reducida
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS y = (x - u)/a
1999 95.6 188.2 2.88
2000 50.8 188.2 2.88
2001 85.3 151.7 2.11
2002 98.9 135.0 1.76
2003 26.6 98.9 1.01
2004 25.5 95.6 0.94
2005 47.0 85.3 0.73
2006 43.6 74.0 0.49
2007 24.4 70.4 0.41
2008 135.0 62.3 0.24
2009 74.0 59.9 0.20
2010 62.3 54.9 0.09
2011 45.1 52.0 0.03
2012 151.7 50.8 0.01
2013 52.0 47.0 (0.07)
2014 10.0 45.1 (0.11)
2015 59.9 43.6 (0.15)
2016 54.9 26.6 (0.50)
2017 188.2 25.5 (0.52)
2018 70.4 24.4 (0.55)
2019 188.2 10.0 (0.85)

x medio 75.68 0.5252

desv. Est x (Sx) 51.17 1.0696

n = número de datos 21
yn medio = 0.5252
Sn = 1.0696

parámetros, según n
a = Sx / Sn = 47.84
u = x-yn*a= 50.56
75.68 0.5252
51.17 1.0696

21
0.5252
1.0696
47.84
50.56
 e  y 1 x−u
F (x  X )  1 e  y=
Tr a
Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que:

1 - e(-e(-y))= 0.01

e(-e(-y))= 0.99

-e(-y)= -0.0100503

e(-y)= 0.0100503

-y = -4.6001492

y = 4.6001492

y= x-u
a

x= u + a.y
x= 270.65
VALORES GUMBEL

Media reducida Yn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.5070 0.5100 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.5220
20 0.5230 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.5320 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.5380 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.5410 0.5418 0.5424 0.5430
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.5530 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.5540 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.5550 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.5570 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.5580 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.5600

Desviación tipica reducida Sn

n 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.2260 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.3880
40 1.1413 1.1430 1.1458 1.1480 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.1590
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.1770 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.1890 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.1930
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.1980 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.2020 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.2060
100 1.2065
ANALISIS CON DISTRIBUCION GAMMA DE 2 PARAMETROS
AÑO ESTACION CHULUCANAS DATOS ORDENADOS f(x) F(x)
1999 95.6 188.2 8.569E-04 9.637E-01
2000 50.8 188.2 8.569E-04 9.637E-01
2001 85.3 151.7 1.905E-03 9.156E-01
2002 98.9 135.0 2.687E-03 8.776E-01
2003 26.6 98.9 5.272E-03 7.378E-01
2004 25.5 95.6 5.571E-03 7.199E-01
2005 47.0 85.3 6.552E-03 6.575E-01
2006 43.6 74.0 7.673E-03 5.771E-01
2007 24.4 70.4 8.025E-03 5.489E-01
2008 135.0 62.3 8.775E-03 4.804E-01
2009 74.0 59.9 8.973E-03 4.595E-01
2010 62.3 54.9 9.348E-03 4.137E-01
2011 45.1 52.0 9.531E-03 3.863E-01
2012 151.7 50.8 9.598E-03 3.748E-01
2013 52.0 47.0 9.767E-03 3.380E-01
2014 10.0 45.1 9.825E-03 3.194E-01
2015 59.9 43.6 9.857E-03 3.046E-01
2016 54.9 26.6 8.960E-03 1.409E-01
2017 188.2 25.5 8.797E-03 1.311E-01
2018 70.4 24.4 8.618E-03 1.215E-01
2019 188.2 10.0 4.531E-03 2.273E-02
x (media) 75.7
s2 (varianza) 2618.8
a 2.187
b 34.60

Si quiero conocer el caudal para Tr = 100 años,

sabiendo que Tr = 1 / Pno exc

--> Pno exc = 1 / 100 = 0.01

--> Pexc = 1-Pno exc = 0.99

x = f ( Pexc) =DISTR.GAMMA.INV(P;a;b)

x = 241.629827
 f(x)

1.2E-02

1.0E-02

8.0E-03

6.0E-03

4.0E-03

2.0E-03

0.0E+00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

F(x)

1.2E+00

1.0E+00

8.0E-01

6.0E-01

4.0E-01

2.0E-01

0.0E+00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
160 180 200

160 180 200

 Valores de "K", para la distribución Pearson tipo III

Coeficiente Nivel de probabilidad, porcentaje

99 80 50 20 10 4 2 1
de asimetría Periodo de retorno en años -8 -6
g 1.0101 1.25 2 5 10 25 50 100
f(x) = − 0.01
3 -0.667 -0.636 -0.396 0.42 1.18 2.278 3.152 4.051
R² = 0.9997
2.8 -0.714 -0.666 -0.384 0.46 1.21 2.275 3.114 3.973
2.6 -0.769 -0.696 -0.368 0.499 1.238 2.267 3.071 3.889
2.4 -0.832 -0.725 -0.351 0.537 1.262 2.256 3.023 3.8 f(x) = − 0.01
2.2 -0.905 -0.752 -0.33 0.574 1.284 2.24 2.97 3.705 R² = 0.9996
2 -0.99 -0.777 -0.307 0.609 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605
1.8 -1.087 -0.7999 -0.282 0.643 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499 f(x) = − 0.0089
1.6 -1.197 -0.8177 -0.254 0.675 1.329 2.163 2.78 3.388 R² = 0.999397
1.4 -1.318 -0.8332 -0.225 0.705 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271
1.2 -1.449 -0.844 -0.195 0.732 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149 f(x) = − 0.0026
1 -1.558 -0.852 -0.164 0.758 1.34 2.043 2.542 3.022 R² = 0.998537
0.8 -1.733 -0.856 -0.132 0.78 1.336 1.993 2.453 2.891 f(x) = 0.001376
0.6 -1.88 -0.857 -0.099 0.8 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 R² = 0.9992547
0.4 -2.029 -0.855 -0.066 0.816 1.317 1.88 2.261 2.615 f(x) = 0.00407783
R² = 0.999982929
0.2 -2.178 -0.85 -0.033 0.83 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472
0 -2.326 -0.842 0 0.842 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326
-0.2 -2.472 -0.83 0.033 0.85 1.258 1.68 1.945 2.178 f(x) = 0.001399
R²
f(x)= =0.9992713
− 0.0192
-0.4 -2.615 -0.816 0.066 0.855 1.232 1.606 1.834 2.029
R² = 0.999746
-0.6 -2.755 -0.8 0.099 0.857 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88
-0.8 -2.891 -0.78 0.132 0.856 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733
-1 -3.022 -0.758 0.164 0.852 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588
-1.2 -3.149 -0.732 0.195 0.844 1.086 1.282 1.379 1.449
-1.4 -3.271 -0.705 0.225 0.832 1.041 1.198 1.27 1.318
-1.6 -3.388 -0.675 0.254 0.817 0.994 1.116 1.166 1.197
-1.8 -3.499 -0.643 0.282 0.799 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087
-2 -3.605 -0.609 0.307 0.777 0.895 0.958 0.98 0.99
-2.2 -3.705 -0.574 0.33 0.752 0.844 0.888 0.9 0.905
-2.4 -3.8 -0.537 0.351 0.725 0.795 0.823 0.83 0.832
-2.6 -3.889 -0.499 0.368 0.696 0.747 0.764 0.768 0.769
-2.8 -3.973 -0.46 0.384 0.666 0.702 0.712 0.714 0.714 1.0101
2
-3 -4.051 -0.42 0.396 0.636 0.66 0.666 0.666 0.667
 K versus g para diferentes Tr
K(Tr) = f (g)

Coeficiente de asimetría, g

-6 -4 -2 0 2
4
f(x) = − 0.0190533735741238 x³ + 0.0033863383557487 x² + 0.73159500479836 x + 2.30358307210031
R² = 0.999777398530349
Tr = 100

3
f(x) = − 0.0139955001744857 x³ − 0.0169498622206491 x² + 0.538798487971384 x + 2.0338847203964
R² = 0.99964710063594

f(x) = − 0.00895764059491728 x³ − 0.0322070292749519 x² + 0.349711848701964 x + 1.73532055819598

2
R² = 0.999397936569578

coeficiente K
f(x) = − 0.00260676908289863 x³ − 0.0412508532207504 x² + 0.111322764797091 x + 1.27384143998382
R² = 0.998537586979501 1
f(x) = 0.00137667818669587 x³ − 0.0354644364950955 x² − 0.0476827658331005 x + 0.839099100010113
R² = 0.999254748870467
f(x) = 0.00407783132972068 x³ − 8.6057325391559E-18 x² − 0.169169395485973 x + 1.05222764652546E-17
R² = 0.999982929916464 0

f(x) = 0.00139929287393995 x³ + 0.0354719416776216 x² − 0.0478574019657413 x − 0.839213439174841

R²
f(x)= =0.999271357226285
− 0.0192834085803398 x³ − 0.00364704469612697 x² + 0.733220585508953 x − 2.30178106987562
R² = 0.999746677611077 -1

-2
Tr = 1.01

-3

-4
1.0101 Polynomial (1.0101) 1.25 Polynomial (1.25)
2 Polynomial (2) 5 Polynomial (5)
 CUADRO Nº 24: PRUEBA DE AJUSTE SMIRNOV-KOLMOGOROV, PRECIPITACION MAXIMA EN 24 HORAS; AREAS DE DRENAJE
Probabilidad de excedencia F(x) Diferencia Delta D
DATOS Empírica Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma Normal LN2 LN3 Gumbel Gamma
1 188.2 0.045 0.014 0.058 0.038 0.055 0.036 0.03150 0.01296 0.00704 0.00930 0.00914
2 188.2 0.091 0.014 0.058 0.038 0.055 0.036 0.07696 0.03249 0.05249 0.03616 0.05459
3 151.7 0.136 0.069 0.102 0.082 0.114 0.084 0.06765 0.03445 0.05399 0.02262 0.05194
4 135.0 0.182 0.123 0.134 0.117 0.157 0.122 0.05861 0.04827 0.06435 0.02448 0.05938
5 98.9 0.227 0.325 0.248 0.252 0.305 0.262 0.09776 0.02084 0.02518 0.07787 0.03497
6 95.6 0.273 0.349 0.263 0.270 0.323 0.280 0.07584 0.00956 0.00233 0.05025 0.00740
7 85.3 0.318 0.425 0.317 0.334 0.384 0.343 0.10729 0.00126 0.01586 0.06535 0.02432
8 74.0 0.364 0.513 0.390 0.418 0.458 0.423 0.14948 0.02601 0.05447 0.09443 0.05923
9 70.4 0.409 0.541 0.416 0.448 0.483 0.451 0.13202 0.00719 0.03900 0.07431 0.04204
10 62.3 0.455 0.604 0.483 0.521 0.543 0.520 0.14898 0.02883 0.06690 0.08848 0.06509
11 59.9 0.500 0.621 0.505 0.544 0.561 0.541 0.12112 0.00456 0.04391 0.06070 0.04050
12 54.9 0.545 0.658 0.552 0.593 0.599 0.586 0.11222 0.00694 0.04785 0.05331 0.04088
13 52.0 0.591 0.678 0.582 0.623 0.621 0.614 0.08734 0.00908 0.03188 0.03011 0.02280
14 50.8 0.636 0.687 0.594 0.635 0.630 0.625 0.05024 0.04199 0.00124 0.00612 0.01117
15 47.0 0.682 0.712 0.635 0.675 0.659 0.662 0.03061 0.04646 0.00727 0.02239 0.01981
16 45.1 0.727 0.725 0.657 0.694 0.674 0.681 0.00232 0.07074 0.03290 0.05330 0.04665
17 43.6 0.773 0.735 0.674 0.710 0.685 0.695 0.03808 0.09920 0.06270 0.08732 0.07734
18 26.6 0.818 0.831 0.871 0.876 0.808 0.859 0.01307 0.05290 0.05737 0.01026 0.04092
19 25.5 0.864 0.837 0.883 0.885 0.815 0.869 0.02702 0.01930 0.02107 0.04848 0.00524
20 24.4 0.909 0.842 0.894 0.894 0.822 0.878 0.06723 0.01463 0.01553 0.08682 0.03064
21 10.0 0.955 0.900 0.993 0.977 0.903 0.977 0.05420 0.03891 0.02215 0.05144 0.02272
0.14948 0.09920 0.06690 0.09443 0.07734
Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada Aceptada
∆= 0.2870
Elaboración Propia
INTERPOLACION

DATOS:
20 0.294
22 X
25 0.27

X= 0.284 Valor Interpolado