(t) Meses (Yt) Ventas Yt+1 Ventas pronosticadas error error2 ECM

Enero 2019 252 2230.21

Febrero 190
Marzo 155
Abril 170 199.00 -29.00 841.00
Mayo 137 171.67 -34.67 1201.78
Junio 125 154.00 -29.00 841.00
Julio 115 144.00 -29.00 841.00
Agosto 170 125.67 44.33 1965.44
Septiembre 200 136.67 63.33 4011.11
Octubre 185 161.67 23.33 544.44
Noviembre 192 185.00 7.00 49.00
Diciembre 247 192.33 54.67 2988.44
Enero 2020 267 208.00 59.00 3481.00
Febrero 160 235.33 -75.33 5675.11
Marzo 143 224.67 -81.67 6669.44
Abril 118 190.00 -72.00 5184.00
Mayo 92 140.33 -48.33 2336.11
Junio 87 117.67 -30.67 940.44
Julio 98 99.00 -1.00 1.00
Agosto 137 92.33 44.67 1995.11
Septiembre 159 107.33 51.67 2669.44
Octubre 165 131.33 33.67 1133.44
Noviembre 153 153.67 -0.67 0.44
Diciembre 202 159.00 43.00 1849.00
Enero 2021 185 173.33 11.67 136.11
Febrero 153 180.00 -27.00 729.00
Marzo 148 180.00 -32.00 1024.00
Abril 132 162.00 -30.00 900.00
Mayo 122 144.33 -22.33 498.78
Junio 109 134.00 -25.00 625.00
Julio 151 121.00 30.00 900.00
Agosto 168 127.33 40.67 1653.78
Septiembre 147 142.67 4.33 18.78
Octubre 196 155.33 40.67 1653.78
Noviembre 203 170.33 32.67 1067.11
Diciembre 287 182.00 105.00 11025.00
Enero 2022 137 228.67 -91.67 8402.78
Febrero 122 209.00 -87.00 7569.00
Marzo 119 182.00 -63.00 3969.00
Abril 96 126.00 -30.00 900.00
Mayo 90 112.33 -22.33 498.78
Junio 143 101.67 41.33 1708.44
Julio 83 109.67 -26.67 711.11
Agosto 105.33
RMSE
47.23
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Yt (VENTAS REALES) Yt+1 (VENTAS PRONOSTICADAS)

 (t) Meses (Yt) Ventas Yt+1 error error2 emc alfa 0.9
Enero 2019 252 252 0.00 0.00 1733.68 1-alfa 0.1
Febrero 190 252.00 -62.00 3844.00 rmse Iteraciones alfa
Marzo 155 196.20 -41.20 1697.44 41.6374775 1 0.9
Abril 170 159.12 10.88 118.37 2 0.8
Mayo 137 168.91 -31.91 1018.38 3 0.7
Junio 125 140.19 -15.19 230.77 4 0.6
Julio 115 126.52 -11.52 132.69 5 0.5
Agosto 170 116.15 53.85 2899.62 6 0.4
Septiembre 200 164.62 35.38 1252.08 7 0.3
Octubre 185 196.46 -11.46 131.37 8 0.2
Noviembre 192 186.15 5.85 34.27 9 0.1
Diciembre 247 191.41 55.59 3089.74 10 0.01
Enero 2020 267 241.44 25.56 653.24
Febrero 160 264.44 -104.44 10908.58
Marzo 143 170.44 -27.44 753.20
Abril 118 145.74 -27.74 769.75
Mayo 92 120.77 -28.77 827.97
Junio 87 94.88 -7.88 62.05
Julio 98 87.79 10.21 104.29
Agosto 137 96.98 40.02 1601.70
Septiembre 159 133.00 26.00 676.11
Octubre 165 156.40 8.60 73.96
Noviembre 153 164.14 -11.14 124.10
Diciembre 202 154.11 47.89 2293.07
Enero 2021 185 197.21 -12.21 149.12
Febrero 153 186.22 -33.22 1103.64
Marzo 148 156.32 -8.32 69.26
Abril 132 148.83 -16.83 283.32
Mayo 122 133.68 -11.68 136.50
Junio 109 123.17 -14.17 200.74
Julio 151 110.42 40.58 1646.99
Agosto 168 146.94 21.06 443.45
Septiembre 147 165.89 -18.89 356.99
Octubre 196 148.89 47.11 2219.41
Noviembre 203 191.29 11.71 137.15
Diciembre 287 201.83 85.17 7254.12
Enero 2022 137 278.48 -141.48 20017.41
Febrero 122 151.15 -29.15 849.62
Marzo 119 124.91 -5.91 34.99
Abril 96 119.59 -23.59 556.56
Mayo 90 98.36 -8.36 69.88
Junio 143 90.84 52.16 2721.09
Julio 83 137.78 -54.78 3001.24
rmse
41.637477
41.703906
42.1161912
43.054366
44.40642
46.191192
48.321583
50.851887
55.78349
91.9906
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Yt (VENTAS REALES) Yt+1 (VENTAS PRONOSTICADAS)

PROMEDIO EN T T meses Yt Ventas (en miles) t - tprom Yt - Ytprom
21.5 1 252 -20.5 95.95
PROMEDIO EN Yt 2 190 -19.5 33.95
156.05 3 155 -18.5 -1.05
4 170 -17.5 13.95
5 137 -16.5 -19.05
6 125 -15.5 -31.05
7 115 -14.5 -41.05
8 170 -13.5 13.95
9 200 -12.5 43.95
10 185 -11.5 28.95
11 192 -10.5 35.95
12 247 -9.5 90.95
13 267 -8.5 110.95
14 160 -7.5 3.95
15 143 -6.5 -13.05
16 118 -5.5 -38.05
17 92 -4.5 -64.05
18 87 -3.5 -69.05
19 98 -2.5 -58.05
20 137 -1.5 -19.05
21 159 -0.5 2.95
22 165 0.5 8.95
23 153 1.5 -3.05
24 202 2.5 45.95
25 185 3.5 28.95
26 153 4.5 -3.05
27 148 5.5 -8.05
28 132 6.5 -24.05
29 122 7.5 -34.05
30 109 8.5 -47.05
31 151 9.5 -5.05
32 168 10.5 11.95
33 147 11.5 -9.05
34 196 12.5 39.95
35 203 13.5 46.95
36 287 14.5 130.95
37 137 15.5 -19.05
38 122 16.5 -34.05
39 119 17.5 -37.05
40 96 18.5 -60.05
41 90 19.5 -66.05
42 143 20.5 -13.05
43 83 21.5 -73.05
44 22.5 SUMAS
MULTIPLICACION 2(t - tprom)2 B2 B1
-1967.05 420.25 -1.0768 179
-662.09 380.25 Coeficientes
19.36 342.25 Intercepción 179.774086
-244.19 306.25 Variable X 1 -1.07852613
314.27 272.25
481.22 240.25
595.17 210.25
-188.37 182.25
-549.42 156.25
-332.97 132.25
-377.51 110.25
-864.06 90.25
-943.10 72.25
-29.65 56.25
84.80 42.25
209.26 30.25
288.21 20.25
241.66 12.25
145.12 6.25
28.57 2.25
-1.48 0.25
4.48 0.25
-4.57 2.25
114.88 6.25
101.34 12.25
-13.71 20.25
-44.26 30.25
-156.30 42.25
-255.35 56.25
-399.90 72.25
-47.94 90.25
125.51 110.25
-104.03 132.25
499.42 156.25
633.87 182.25
1898.83 210.25
-295.22 240.25
-561.77 272.25
-648.31 306.25
-1110.86 342.25
-1287.91 380.25
-267.45 420.25
-1570.50 462.25
-7142.00 6632.75
PRONOSTICOS DE LAS VENTAS Pronóstico para Y ERROR ERROR2
178.1205 178.6955602537 73.8795 5458.18600879288
177.0437 177.617034128662 12.9563 167.86610495725
175.9669 176.538508003624 -20.9669 439.611173946412
174.8901 175.459981878587 -4.8901 23.913357029071
173.8134 174.381455753549 -36.8134 1355.22276916508
172.7366 173.302929628511 -47.7366 2278.780336064
171.6598 172.224403503473 -56.6598 3210.3322791272
170.5830 171.145877378436 -0.5830 0.339907766306291
169.5062 170.067351253398 30.4938 929.869521781563
168.4295 168.98882512836 16.5705 274.582799963815
167.3527 167.910299003322 24.6473 607.490296004969
166.2759 166.831772878285 80.7241 6516.37972993066
165.1991 165.753246753247 101.8009 10363.4180385318
164.1223 164.674720628209 -4.1223 16.9937484376285
163.0456 163.596194503171 -20.0456 401.824849923667
161.9688 162.517668378133 -43.9688 1933.25460181921
160.8920 161.439142253096 -68.8920 4746.10947127589
159.8152 160.360616128058 -72.8152 5302.05844928537
158.7385 159.28209000302 -60.7385 3689.16014652951
157.6617 158.203563877982 -20.6617 426.904970456196
156.5849 157.125037752945 2.4151 5.8327047147376
155.5081 156.046511627907 9.4919 90.0957370779321
154.4313 154.967985502869 -1.4313 2.04874697738743
153.3546 153.889459377831 48.6454 2366.37821437994
152.2778 152.810933252794 32.7222 1070.74314196169
151.2010 151.732407127756 1.7990 3.23636451968372
150.1242 150.653881002718 -2.1242 4.51236171921075
149.0475 149.57535487768 -17.0475 290.615685216825
147.9707 148.496828752643 -25.9707 674.476002194313
146.8939 147.418302627605 -37.8939 1435.94748324457
145.8171 146.339776502567 5.1829 26.8622492827441
144.7403 145.261250377529 23.2597 541.011714126639
143.6636 144.182724252492 3.3364 11.1318093280247
142.5868 143.104198127454 53.4132 2852.97150778653
141.5100 142.025672002416 61.4900 3781.01921928692
140.4332 140.947145877378 146.5668 21481.8183458872
139.3565 139.868619752341 -2.3565 5.55286105231977
138.2797 138.790093627303 -16.2797 265.027747632572
137.2029 137.711567502265 -18.2029 331.345376439449
136.1261 136.633041377227 -40.1261 1610.10523486506
135.0493 135.55451525219 -45.0493 2029.44290015865
133.9726 134.475989127152 9.0274 81.494665712866
132.8958 133.397463002114 -49.8958 2489.58909057184
131.8
 ECM
2083.571109882
RMSE
45.64615109603
Resumen

Estadísticas de la regresión
Coeficiente d 0.28138747
Coeficiente d 0.07917891
R^2 ajustado 0.05671986
Error típico 46.7429591
Observacione 43

ANÁLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crítico de F
Regresión 1 7702.83359 7702.83359 3.52547882 0.06755861
Residuos 41 89581.0734 2184.90423
Total 42 97283.907

Coeficientes Error típico Estadístico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95%Inferior 95.0%
Intercepción 179.774086 14.5088154 12.3906799 1.9034E-15 150.472939 209.075233 150.472939
Variable X 1 -1.07852613 0.5744095 -1.87762585 0.06755861 -2.23856965 0.0815174 -2.23856965

Análisis de los residuales

Observación
Pronóstico para YResiduos
Residuos estándares
1 178.69556 73.3044397 1.58725533
2 177.617034 12.3829659 0.2681274
3 176.538508 -21.538508 -0.46637164
4 175.459982 -5.45998188 -0.11822456
5 174.381456 -37.3814558 -0.80941775
6 173.30293 -48.3029296 -1.04589957
7 172.224404 -57.2244035 -1.23907555
8 171.145877 -1.14587738 -0.02481159
9 170.067351 29.9326487 0.64812931
10 168.988825 16.0111749 0.34668872
11 167.910299 24.089701 0.52161242
12 166.831773 80.1682271 1.73587638
13 165.753247 101.246753 2.19228806
14 164.674721 -4.67472063 -0.10122136
15 163.596195 -20.5961945 -0.4459678
16 162.517668 -44.5176684 -0.96393761
17 161.439142 -69.4391423 -1.50356034
18 160.360616 -73.3606161 -1.58847171
19 159.28209 -61.28209 -1.32693632
20 158.203564 -21.2035639 -0.45911912
21 157.125038 1.87496225 0.04059841
22 156.046512 8.95348837 0.19386919
23 154.967986 -1.9679855 -0.04261264
24 153.889459 48.1105406 1.04173379
25 152.810933 32.1890667 0.69698736
26 151.732407 1.26759287 0.02744709
27 150.653881 -2.653881 -0.05746428
28 149.575355 -17.5753549 -0.38055779
29 148.496829 -26.4968288 -0.57373377
30 147.418303 -38.4183026 -0.83186852
31 146.339777 4.6602235 0.10090746
32 145.26125 22.7387496 0.49236038
33 144.182724 2.81727575 0.06100225
34 143.104198 52.8958019 1.14534868
35 142.025672 60.974328 1.32027238
36 140.947146 146.052854 3.16247108
37 139.86862 -2.86861975 -0.062114
38 138.790094 -16.7900936 -0.36355459
39 137.711568 -18.7115675 -0.40516011
40 136.633041 -40.6330414 -0.87982408
41 135.554515 -45.5545153 -0.98638837
42 134.475989 8.52401087 0.18456974
43 133.397463 -50.397463 -1.09125234
Superior 95.0%
209.075233
0.0815174
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Yt (VENTAS REALES) Yt+1 (VENTAS PRONOSTICADAS)