NUESTRO PLANETA INQUIETO

Carta de Navegación

Una guía para que la comunidad neocientífica del país desarrolle una visión a largo plazo y una
estrategia para el avance de la Ciencia de la Tierra Sólida.

Cimientos Frágiles

La tierra sólida es un componente dinámico del Sistema Tierra.

• Los riesgos naturales, tales como los terremotos, los volcanes, los deslizamientos, las
inundaciones, el ascenso del nivel de mar y los incendios silvestres son amenazas mayores para
la sociedad.

Se requiere caracterizar y entender las fuerzas que actúan en el subsuelo para avanzar hacia una
capacidad de predicción.
Esta capacidad conducirá a un entendimiento científico más profundo de nuestro planeta y un
mejoramiento en la evaluación y mitigación de los riesgos naturales.

Perspectivas Globales

Interacciones claves como el transporte del calor interno, la tectónica de placas, la generación del
campo magnético y la influencia del vulcanismo en el clima muestran la naturaleza de interconexiones
del Sistema Tierra.

La ciencia de la Tierra Sólida requiere de observaciones globales y un programa diversificado de acción.

Las observaciones desde el espacio proveen una capacidad única para una toma global de muestras y
para el estudio de eventos episódicos.

A partir de mapas topográficos globales, pasando por un nuevo entendimiento del campo magnético
terrestre, hasta una revolución en las observaciones gravimétricas y en las mediciones geodésicas,
nuestro liderazgo debe abrir nuevas oportunidades científicas.

Imperativos Científicos

Meta de la Ciencia de la Tierra Sólida en Colombia

Observar, entender y desarrollar modelos del Sistema Tierra para aprender cómo está cambiando y sus
consecuencias para la vida en la Tierra.

• ¿Cómo se está transformando la superficie terrestre y cómo se puede utilizar esta información
para precedir cambios futuros?

• ¿Cuáles son los movimientos de la Tierra y su interior y qué información se puede inferir acerca
de sus procesos internos?

Retos Científicos Identificados

• ¿Cuál es la naturaleza de la deformación en límites de placas y cuáles sus implicaciones en

riesgos sísmicos?
• ¿Cómo es la interacción entre la tectónica y el clima para moldear la superficie terrestre y crear
riesgos naturales?

• ¿Cuáles son las interacciones entre masas de hielo, océanos y la Tierra sólida y su implicación
en el cambio del nivel del mar?

• ¿Cómo evolucionan los sistemas magmáticos y bajo qué condiciones hacen erupción los
volcanes?
 • ¿Cuál es la dinámica del manto y la corteza y cómo responde la superficie terreste?

• ¿Cuál es la dinámica del campo magnético terrestre y sus interacciones con el sistema Tierra?

Asociaciones Esenciales

El éxito para alcanzar las metas científicas y el beneficio social depende de la colaboración.

• Asociación con programas de ciencia y tecnología coordinados por COLCIENCIAS.

 • Asociación entre instituciones nacionales como IDEAM, IGAC, INGEOMINAS y Otras.

• Asociación con entidades internacionales, p.ej. NASA, USGS y otros, para colaboración
multinacional

La colaboración entre instituciones como INGEOMINAS y las Gobernaciones es crucial para la validación
de campo y la consecución de recursos

Estrategias de Observación

Para abordar los seis retos científicos se han identificado un conjunto de estrategias de observación de
prioridad alta.

La motivación para los beneficios esperados de cada estrategia de observación se mostrará durante
esta presentación

1. Deformación superficial

2. Topografía de alta resolución

3. Variabilidad del campo magnético terrestre

 4. Variabilidad del campo gravimétrico de la Tierra

5. Espectroscopia de imágenes de la superficie terrestre cambiante

6. Redes geodésidas de satélites y el ITRF

7. Técnicas y observaciones promisorias.

Retos Científicos

Naturaleza de la deformación
 Interacción Tectónica - Clima

Interacción Hielo - Oceáno- Tierra Sólida

Evolución de sistemas Magmáticos

 Dinámica Manto- Corteza
Dinámica Campo-Magnético

¿Cuál es la naturaleza de la deformación en límites de placas y cuáles sus

implicaciones en riesgo sísmico?

Los Retos y los Beneficios

Mediciones combinadas de InSAR y GPS de los desplazamientos horizontales del terremoto de Hector Mine
en 1999. El color muestra la magnitud (escala log) y las flechas muestran la magnitud y dirección

Visualización en 4D de la ruptura y propagación de ondas para el terremoto

Northridge de 1994

Esta representación despliega las interacciones entre la ruptura del terremoto y el campo de onda sísmica
y entre el campo de onda y la estructura de la corteza, así como la naturaleza de la sacudida superficial
asociada con la invasión de ondas P y S. Las ondas P son de color índigo y las ondas S de color magenta
y están superpuestas sobre la isosuperficie Vs=2.5 Km para la cuenca de San Fernando y la cuencia de
LA para 25 segundos
Lo que conocemos y lo que necesitamos aprender

El conocimiento de la deformación de la Tierra está fragmentado debido a la escala de observación.

• A escala global (períodos largos) interiores rígidos de placa, deformación ocurre sobre límites de
anchura finita.

• A escalas de tiempo cortas (segundos a a meses) elástica.

• Escalas de tiempo intermedias (multi-años)viscosa elástica.

El conocimiento de la dinámica también está fragmentado

• Descripciones diferentes usadas a escalas espaciales y temporales diferentes.

Unificación de estos mediante la combinación de sistemas de medición modernos

y tecnologías de información

Representación tridimensional de la subducción de la placa Nazca por debajo de Sur América. Arriba, un
interferograma InSAR del terremoto de magnitud 8.1 en Antofagasta en 1995. El límite de la placa está
representado por la línea roja

Programa Recomendado

Requiere mediciones de desplazamiento superficial progresivamente precisas y

aumento en la frecuencia temporal.

• 1 mm/a en áreas de 50 km con acceso semanal que conduzca a mapas diarios que se extiendan
varios cientos de km, con precisión submilimétrica. La meta a largo plazo (10-25 años) es
alcanzar acceso global por horas.
Se requiere para:

• Determinar cómo los eventos transitorios (deslizamientos pequeños en grandes áreas) se

relacionan a terremotos.

• Distinguir entre acumulación de tensiones en una sola falla o en fallas múltiples.

• Cartografía de dispersión de sismos y los efectos de asperezas.

Estrategias de observación

Desde satélites

• Deformación superficial

• Topografía de alta resolución

• Redes de geodesia

• Mediciones de gravedad

• Técnicas prometedoras adicionales

In-Situ redes sísmicas, geodesia del suelo oceánico, arreglos de perforaciones.

¿Como son las interacciones de la tectónica y el clima para moldear la superficie

terrestre y crear riesgos naturales?
Los Retos y Beneficios

Wheeler Ridge es un pliegue que crece rápidamente encima de un cabalgamiento ciego al sur de California.
La topografía de alta resolución ayuda a definir las tasas de levantamiento y erosión y las interacciones
que producen riesgos naturales
Subsidencia del terreno en Lost Hills

La Subsidencia del terreno en los campos de petróleo de Belridge y Lost Hills, al oeste-noroeste de
Bakersfield, California, con base en dos MDE con diferencia de 18 años, elaborados por el USGS y SRTM.
La imagen está entre los dos MDE (con gran exageración vertical) y utiliza una imagen Landsat de
superposición.

Lo que Conocemos y lo que Debemos Aprender

La superficie continental evoluciona debido a deformación tectónica, fuerzas hidrológicas y biológicas

transitorias y actividades del hombre.

¿Podemos interpretar tasas de actividad sísmica en fallas enterradas a partir de superficies

continentales deformadas?

¿Cuál es el balance entre topografía, humedad del suelo, vegetación y lluvia que conduce a
inundaciones y deslizamientos?

¿Cuáles son las interacciones que determinan la propagación de ondas de inundación y

erosión/depósito de sedimentos?
 • Hi-res topo: 2-m LIDAR cartografía 1er-retorno

• Precipitación: totales horarios

• Perturbación humana / cambio en vegetación

• Saturación de suelos

• Probabilidad deslizamientos: riesgo desbordamiento

• Etapa de inundación en ríos: magnitud, tiempo

Programa Recomendado

Los datos topográficos básicos y de alta resolución de corto plazo/tiempo real son
críticos:

• Cartografía global con precisión vertical de 0.5 m, resolución 5 m

• Precisión vertical a 0.1 m en blancos (tales como terreno escarpado, fuentes de deslizamientos y
algunas inundaciones) con repeticiones frecuentes.

Meta de largo plazo (10-25 años) es desarrollar programas de detección de

cambio superficial amplio e integrado, incluyendo caracterización de la superficie,
del subsuelo e hidrológica, que conduzca a una capacidad de predicción.

Estrategias de Observación

Espaciales

• Topografía de alta resolución

• Espectroscopia de imágenes (geología, biota, saturación del suelo)

• Deformación superficial

• Redes de geodesia

• Tecnologías promisorias adicionales (precipitación, etapa)

In-Situ: arreglos hidrológicos y sismológicos

¿Cuáles son las interacciones entre masas, de hielo, océanos y la Tierra
Sólida y su implicación en el cambio del nivel del mar?

Los Retos y beneficios

Pine Island Glaciar

A model-based simulation of Pine Island Glacier, the most active glacier in Antarctica. It accelerated 18 % in
8 years over a length of more than 150 km, causing ice to thin 13 m, and its line of floatation to retreat 6 km

What We Know and Need to Learn

Global, mean sea level rise is estimated at 1.5-2 mm/yr.

Are Greenland and Antarctic ice masses gaining or losing mass?

What is the global land hydrological budget?

• Mountain glacier inventory

• Artificial reservoir impoundment

Diverse observation techniques and synthesis are required

• Sea surface topography

• Time-variable gravity

• Surface deformation

• Hydrologic variations
 Arial photo sequence spanning 50 yrs. Showing the progressive drowning and loss of coastal marshes in
Maryland due to sea level rise relative to local land

Recommended Program

Sea-level change is a highly interdisciplinary issue require observations from

many fields of Earth science, including the solid Earth.

The requirements For determining the relationshi between ice masses, sea level rise and the solid
Earth

• Mapping of ice sheets to sub-cm vertical accuracy, 1 km resolution from monthly to long-term, and
higher resolutions for glaciers

• Gravity measurements to mm accuracy in water-equivalent load on hundreds of km for post-

glacial rebound.

• High-resolution coastline topography changes due to relative sea-level change and coastal
inundation.
Observational strategies

Spaceborne:

• Geodetic networks

• Surface deformation

• Gravity measurements

• High-resolution topography

• Imaging spectroscopy

• Necessary climatic and oceanographic remote sensing

In-Situ: tide gauges, buoys, geodetic networks

How do Magmatic Systems Evolve, and Under What Conditions do

Volcanoes Erupt?

The Challenges and Benefits

The Challenges

• Understand the relationships between surface deformation, seismicity, thermal and gas
emissions, gravity changes, and actual eruptions

• What are the physical mechanisms of eruptions?

• Global observations of volcanic activity from the earliest stages of magma movement to the pre-
eruptive activity

Benefits for the Nation

• Hazard mitigation due to improved volcanic activity warnings

• Advanced planning for high-risk regions

• Detection of ash and plume products to provide warnings for air travel

• Up-to-date global inventory of terrestrial, active volcanoes

 Observed deformation measured by InSAR in the Galapagos. Differences in the displacement patterns
illustrate the complex range of deformation mechanisms

Inflation of Mt. Etna, Italy

What We Know and Need to Learn

Subsurface movement of magma causes surface deformation, seismicity, and changes in gravity. Many
volcanic eruptions are preceded by detectable observations.

Need to assess the geometry of volcanic plumbing systems

Physical properties of magma (composition, volatile content)

Location and mechanisms of volatile exsolution

How do we determine a volcano’s level of activity?

• Deformation

• Heat flux

• Gravity variations

• Seismicity

• Gas emissions
InSAR observations (left) and models (right) of surface deformation on Mt. Etna. (Bottom row) The magma
chamber from above, and from the side

Recommended Program

The required observations that lead to volcanic forecasting employ a variety of

techniques

• Surface deformation of 1 mm/yr at sub-km resolution with weekly access leading to eventual
targeted ability for eruptions

• Gravity measurements to distinguish between movement of magma and gasses/fluids

• Temperature changes at 0.5 K

• Gas emission detection

Observational strategies

Spaceborne:

• Surface deformation

• Imaging spectroscopy

• Geodetic networks

• Gravity measurements

• Imaging Spectroscopy

• Additional promising techniques

In-Situ: seismic networks, field campaigns

What are the Dynamics of the Mantle and Crust and How Does the Earth’s
Surface Respond?
The Challenges and Benefits

Free air gravity field with negative anomaly indicated by cool colors associated with incomplete glacial
rebound, and positive anomalies indicated by warm colors associated with ocean ridge structure and the
western United States

What We Know and Need to Learn

• Mantle processes influence surface deformation, internal mass redistribution, and changes in
Earth’s rotation and gravity

• Is mantle convection layered? How complex is the convection pattern?

• What is the deep structure and distribution of mantle plumes?

 Time-variable gravity from glacial rebound in Antarctica. Rate of geoid change is in mm/yr

Recommended Program

Requirements for characterizing and understanding mantle and crustal dynamics

• Vertical rates of motion to better than 1 mm/yr and tens of kilometer resolution

• Gravity change measurements to sub-mm water-equivalent load over several km in several days

Observational strategies

Spaceborne:

• Surface deformation

• Geodetic networks

• Gravity measurements

• Additional promising techniques

In-Situ: Geodetic networks, gravity surveys, field campaigns

What are the Dynamics of the Earth’s Magnetic Field and Its Interactions
with the Earth System?

The Challenges and Benefits

Challenges

The main (axial dipole) component of the magnetic field has decayed nearly 10% in the last 150 years

• Is the field reversing?

How much longer will the South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly continue to grow, and what are negative
implications for radiation dosages for low-Earth orbit satellites?

Separation of field components

Benefits for the Nation

• Forecasts of the magnetic field on decadal time scales, important for the effects of space weather

• Estimation of interannual and longer changes in mean atmospheric and oceanic zonal circulation
from LOD observations and calculations of core circulation
South Atlantic Magnetic Anomaly strength at 500 km altitude over the last 100 years. It’s about 35% weaker
than would be expected
Evolution of the Magnetic Field

The evolution of Earth’s magnetic field over the past century, including the growth of the South Atlantic
Anomaly

What We Know and Need to Learn

• What is the dominant mechanism of angular momentum exchange in the solid Earth-core-inner
core system (at each timescale)?

• How do core-mantle interactions influence the geodynamo?

• What accounts for the time-averaged field morphology?

• What causes abrupt changes in the field (jerks)?

• Can we forecast the magnetic field using techniques of data assimilation?

 Progress in modeling of the geodynamo and new satellite observations promise to greatly advance our
understanding of the origin of Earth’s magnetic field

Recommended Program

Characterization of the magnetic field requires

• Measurement of the time-varying field at a few nT accuracy simultaneously at different local times
at LEO

• Computational techniques for simultaneous inversion for core field, crustal field, induced field, and
external field

Understanding the geodynamo and core dynamics requires

• Massive computational resources

• Core field models with resolution to degree 13 at sub-decadal periods

• Geodetic measurements of variations in Earth rotation

Observational strategies

Spaceborne:

• Magnetic measurements

• Geodetic networks

In-Situ: magnetic observatory measurements

Recommendations for an Integrated Program for Solid-Earth Science

Recommendations for an Integrated Program for Solid-Earth Science

An integrated solid-Earth program addresses observations, technology development, R&A (including

modeling), information systems, supporting frameworks, and outreach.

By developing a modular program architecture, the overall effort is responsive to scientific discoveries
and new programmatic directions.
Observations: Surface Deformation

Scientific challenges addressed by these observations

Suggested mission phasing and requirements

Immediate (1–5 years): Single dedicated InSAR satellite

• L-band, with left/right-looking capability and weekly access to anywhere on the globe

• Precise orbit determination and ionospheric correction capabilities

 • 1 mm/yr surface displacement over 50 km horizontal extents; displacement maps should cover
100-km-wide swaths

Near Term (5–10 years): Constellation of InSAR satellites

• Improved temporal frequency of deformation maps to daily intervals

• Maps at several hundred km width with full vector surface displacements at accuracies of
submillimeter per year over 10-km spatial extents and 1-m spatial resolution

Long term (10–25 years): Constellation of InSAR satellites in low Earth or geosynchronous orbits

• Hourly global access

• Increase density of continuous ground and seafloor geodetic observations

Observations: High-resolution Topography

Scientific challenges addressed by these observations

Suggested mission phasing and requirements

Immediate (1–5 years): Distribute all SRTM data, launch ICESat, and demonstrate imaging lidar
capabilities in Earth orbit

Near Term (5–10 years): Global mapping to supercede the SRTM data set

• One-time, non-repeated global mapping at 2- to 5-m resolution and 0.5-m vertical accuracy for the
ground surface

• Ice-sheet mapping with 1-km horizontal resolution, 1-cm vertical accuracy for the ice or snow
surface, and a repeat interval of months (for annual changes) to years (for long-term changes)

Long term (10–25 years): Continuously operating, targeted, high-resolution topographic mapping and
change detection capability

• Targeted local to regional mapping, with global access, at 1-m resolution, 0.1-m vertical accuracy
for the ground and water surfaces, and a repeat frequency of hours to years depending on the
rate of topographic change
Observations: Geomagnetic Field

Scientific challenges addressed by these observations

Suggested mission phasing and requirements

Immediate (1–5 years): Support of analysis of geomagnetic observations from current satellite missions

• Development of a modularized instrument package to facilitate taking advantage of missions of

opportunity

Near Term (5–10 years): Constellation of 4-6 satellites

• At a range of local times

• Approximately 800-km altitude in polar orbit

Long term (10–25 years): Complete, 12-satellite constellation

• Adding satellites at lower altitude (300 km) in polar orbit (to enhance study of the crustal field)

• At 800 km in a low-inclination orbit (to enhance recovery of mantle electrical conductivity)

• Technological advancements on incorporating star trackers on magnetometers and improved

lifetimes at low altitudes
Observations: Gravity Field

Scientific challenges addressed by these observations

Suggested mission phasing and requirements

Inmediate (1-5 years) GRACE

• Monthly estimation to within a few millimeters of surface water-equivalent load at a few hundred
kilometers spatial resolution

Near Term (5–10 years): GRACE follow-on mission

• Demonstrating satellite-to-satellite laser interferometry technology

Long term (10–25 years): Gravity measurement improved by 2–3 orders of magnitude in sensitivity

• Satellite-to-satellite laser interferometry or

• Spaceborne quantum gradiometer technology

Observations: Imaging Spectroscopy

Scientific challenges addressed by these observations

Suggested mission phasing and requirements

Immediate (1–5 years): Spaceborne imaging spectrometer

• Visible and near infrared (0.2 – 2.5 mm)

• Airborne measurements in the thermal infrared (3 – 5 mm and 8 – 14 mm)

Near Term (5–10 years): Improved spaceborne imaging spectrometer

• 100-km swath and 30-m spatial resolution

• Demonstration spaceborne thermal infrared imaging spectrometer with 30-km swath and 30-m
spatial resolution

• Monthly global mapping across visible to thermal wavelengths with a signal-to-noise ratio > 500

•
Long Term (10–25 years): Targeted local to regional mapping, with global access, at 1-m resolution
across multiple wavelengths

• Repeat frequency of hours to years depending on the rate of change of the process being studied

Observations: Promising Directions

Propagation of seismic waves from the 1994 magnitude 8.2 Bolivia earthquake. It may be possible to
measure seismic waves on continental scales from space.

A number of other promising observations that are either developing or expanding into the field of solid-
Earth science offer additional methods to achieve the goals of the Solid Earth Science Program.

• Seismology from space

• Subsurface imaging

• Solid Earth beneath the oceans

Research and Analysis

Data analysis is an essential part of every NASA mission

• Data of greatest benefit when integrated with quantitative models to test theories

Examples of critical R&A and modeling efforts for solid-Earth science:

• Time-dependent modeling of local fault systems

• Models of time-dependent gravity

• Models incorporating the oceans, atmosphere and core into the angular momentum budget

• Fully three-dimensional, nonlinear, spherical, time-dependent models of the solid-Earth system

 that can assimilate continuous streams of new data

Advances in modeling and computational simulation methods have suggested methods for finding
precursory space-time patterns hidden in existing earthquake data sets. The colored anomalies are spots
where large earthquakes are likely to occur according to the analysis. The red arrows point to the three
magnitude 5+ events that have occurred since the forecast plot was made

Information Systems

Computational Priorities

• Advances in inversion methods, 3D modeling, data assimilation and pattern recognition all require
high- performance computing.

Distributed Receiving and Processing Systems

• The creation of distributed centers for processing and storing and comparing complementary data
sets is important for interdisciplinary research.
Three-dimensional finite element grid for modeling mantle flow and crustal deformation along a subduction
zone. Modeling techniques such as this are very computationally intensive
Technology Development

Supporting Framework

The programs and networks that support the research program must be maintained.

Global geodetic networks

• VLBI, SLR, and GPS

• Precise orbit determination

• Coordination, calibration, and validation

• e.g., airborne SAR flights, seismic arrays, volcano monitoring systems

Outreach

Access to Knowledge is phased through mission development

• Initial outreach to scientific communities to gather input

• As launch nears, focus shifts to the media (through news and websites)

• Educators and students are primary audience after launch

• Important to also distribute information to relevant policy makers, such as FEMA and others

Students make measurements of hidden magnets beneath a blue cloth in an analogy to the method GRACE
uses to measure the gravity field of mass distributions in the Earth.
Summary

• The SESWG, together with the broader science community, has recommended a long-term
vision and strategy for solid-Earth science at NASA that not only addresses critical scientific
issues but also has direct societal benefits.

• The strategy is interdisciplinary in nature and integrates innovative research, novel observations,
and technology development leading to specific applications.

• The recommended program can leverage existing activities planned by other government
agencies and international partners, but it may require additional funds over what is currently
envisioned.

Next Steps

• The SESWG report provides general guidance for program implementation. To fully implement
the SESWG vision, we recommend the formation of a science and technology planning group.

• Such a planning group should be charged with the preparation of a detailed programmatic
roadmap.

• The recommended program will initiate a new level of understanding of the solid Earth, its
interaction with the Earth system, and its impact on society.

Tomado del Reporte del Grupo de Trabajo: Solid Earth Science (SESWG) de la Nasa ( 3 de abril de 2002)